Collaborative Arctic Sea Ice Presentation(s) Project

[Neven]

I'm opening this thread as a complement to this blog post on the ASIB: Arctic sea ice presentation template. Would it be interesting to develop an Arctic sea ice presentation with a couple of people, that folks can use for talks in their communities?

TerryM put his powerpoint presentation online on Google Docs for people to comment on and adjust: original version, modified version.

[OldLeatherneck]

Collaborating to enhance the original Artic Sea Ice Presentation

On the ASIB, Neven asked for someone to step up a lead an effort to develop one or more Power Point presentations.  Terry and I are willing to start this effort, acknowledging that neither of us are climate scientists and will hope for others to validate the science based facts of any charts/data provided by other contributors to the project.  We only hope to provide some means for collaboration and configuration management.

Terry's original presentation to Canadian Mensans has received a number of comments on Neven's ASIB and we are going to migrate each comment over to this thread so that they are saved and available for others to comment on.

This is just the beginning of a long journey to communicate to multiple audiences across the globe how serious we must take the loss of Arctic Sea Ice.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: PhilGChapman | May 21, 2013 at 23:31

Having such a collective resource from which to draw is a nice idea. My main (and only minor) suggestion for improvement would be to have a consistent referencing style, and one or two graphs (e.g. N. Hemisphere temperature reconstructions near the start) don't appear to have a reference. But nice work, well done!

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Frankd 1977 | May 22, 2013 at 01:33

Hooray! Terry used the 2050 NOAA jpeg I sent him in his presentation

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Dr Tskoul | May 22, 2013 at 02:40

Great work Terry!!!!

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Craig Merry | May 22, 2013 at 02:46

Excellent work Terry and OLN- inspiring to see this being done. Thank you!

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: S Latham | May 22, 2013 at 04:30

Hi, this was really great. One question and one comment on a change of emphasis that I might employ. "Arctic sea ice acts as a buffer, cooling our summers & warming our winters" -- Slide 33. Is it true that Arctic sea ice warms our winters? I recall that the effects on the jet stream in 2012/2013 tended to cool areas over land and added moisture contributed to greater snowfall (I think), but I don't remember hearing that our Canadian winters would be colder. I thought it was just more persistent blocking that could be predicted.

My comment may just be for personal preference, but I think I would instead focus on September rather than minimums. But maybe that's just me.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Twemoran | May 22, 2013 at 07:49

Thanks for the kind words - and especially thanks to all that helped with the graphics that made up the bulk of the presentation.

I'm inviting criticism so that this can evolve into something that the Arctic Sea Ice community can take pride in, even if no presentation is ever made in your area.

I'll try to respond to all suggestions made & those I feel comfortable with will be incorporated into the NiagaraModified presentation which is the version I'll be using next time the opportunity arises.

Terry

S Latham

I think you may be right. WhatI'd been considering was the latent heat uptake and release during the freeze/melt cycles.

During todays melting months, say from April to September, enormous amounts of sensible heat are being used to melt ice while in winter the freezing of Arctic ice stabilizes ocean temperatures at about -2C.

In a seasonally ice free situation:

In months without ice starting in September, then progressing through August and July the latent energy now melting ice will be released as sensible heat so cooler spring and summer temperatures with ice should be accurate.

In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March freezing will still be occurring at about the same rate as today so no change in fall or winter would be more accurate.

In a constantly ice free Arctic - which may be impossible due to long winter nights:

The present melting months of April through September will be exhibiting an increase in sensible heat so the Arctic ice is providing cooling in spring and summer.

In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March the lack of ice would mean no change of phase. Without the phase change temperatures would be colder, but since this will only occur in warmer conditions the phrase "Arctic ice keeps winters warmer", while accurate probably conveys the wrong message.

Trying to synopsize this into one sentence may be beyond my limited literary prowess.

"Arctic sea ice acts as a buffer, cooling our summers & warming our winters."
 might be better as
"Arctic sea ice acts to stabilize Arctic Ocean temperatures to ~-2C which affects Northern Hemisphere weather year round."
 I've changed slide #64in the NiagaraModified presentation using the new sentence.
 Terry

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: OldLeatherneck | May 22, 2013 at 11:09

Working with Terry to help polish his presentation was a rewarding experience. After a lengthy telephone conversation, it was evident that Terry was a gifted storyteller. The task at hand was then a matter of putting his story into a quasi-professional looking series of charts.

To set the record straight, Terry may have been overly effusive in his kind words about my contribution. While it's true that I've been making and giving presentations since the last millennia, during the latter years of my career, I had access to editors, graphic artists and 24/7 IT support when working on various proposal efforts.

Collaborating via GoogleDocs was a new experience for both of us, yet we managed to navigate the process. Personally, I prefer making the charts using Power Point and then using the Google platform for sharing.

I can envision a series of presentations, covering all thing cryospheric that can be tailored or augmented for specific audiences.

As time permits, I will post more of my tips on effective presentations on the Forum thread that Neven opened yesterday. I'm looking forward to collaborating and supporting any efforts to further communicate the threats we are facing.

Again, Kudos to Neven for providing ASIB and the Forum as a place that we can learn and share knowledge.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: NeilT | May 22, 2013 at 12:55

Neven, you might want to use the Open Source collaborative computing development model for this.

Someone owns the core. Contributors contribute to the core and the core updates with versions.

People who wish to build on the core make Forks from the core. Taking the core material and building on top of it in different directions. Any improvements they wish to make to the core, they feed back and it forms part of the basis of the next core.

When the core is upgraded to a new version, all forks then re-baseline on the new core.

Does that make sense and work for you? Someone will need to own the core and manage the versions.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Kevin McKinney | May 22, 2013 at 14:41 | May 22, 2013 at 17:03

Congratulations to Terry & OL--haven't looked through the presentation yet, but this is obviously a very good idea.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: A-Team | May 22, 2013 at 17:03

The first question at a "demise" talk might be 'what are you predicting for summer 2013'. Wipneus has probably given the best overall answer to that -- the geospatial cell-by-cell exponential downtrend in volume in coming years -- but a temporary September minimum area uptick will still perplex a non-specialist audience.

So what is going to happen -- can we find a set of proxies today that predicts a record -- or at least respectable -- melt season? Craig M sees the 'Beaufort getting interesting real quick'. I also think that likely based on open water and melt on both sides of the Bering Strait. ...............................

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Boa05att | May 22, 2013 at 17:27

Can I be really superficial and talk mainly about style?

The content seems great - but do you really want the conclusion to be so down? Is there nothing we can or should be doing to slow it down/prepare for the on coming disaster?

Ok so on to style - generally this is far better then a lot of presentations I've seen, so if the following seems to be nit picky- it's because you've already got a lot of the basics covered.

My main complaint is that when making a powerpoint you should never, ever, ever, use comic sans as a font! Helvetica is much better. I tend to use either that or TW Cen MT.

Some slides are still too busy and have too much text (especially slides 35-39). Slides are free you don't have to cram each one - just use lots of slides.

You want virtually no text on slides, unless say you're quoting someone. This means having a good set of notes and rehearsing what you're going to say on each slide. You want people to listen to you not read the slides. The audience can't do both, (well perhaps Mensans can ;-) )

It's also vital that where possible you avoid reading from slides. This very quickly makes an audience tune out.

Titles on slides with graphs should say what you want the audience to take away. So for example instead of " PIOMAS volume data w/projections", you could have "Volume is projected to reach zero in September 2015".

(As an aside did you present each of the PIOMAS volume graphs in turn? I think it's unnecessary to include them all as they all show the same data - I know we each have our own favorites- so maybe it's best if whoever does the presentation just chooses one

I also think that you should have at least one graph showing the wavy seasonal change in either extent or volume)

A really good guide to making super sophisticated presentations, which has served me well, can be found here:
http://www.slideshare.net/treubold/fight-the-powerpoint

If you are really want to show off then maybe someone could use PREZI - presentations using this medium can be amazing, but used inexpertly they're likely to make the audience feel queasy!
http://prezi.com/

P.S. there was one mistake that caught my eye on the graph on slide six. You have marked the age of the dinosaurs as being up to 10 million years ago, they went extinct ~65 million years ago - not including avian theropods of course :-)

I'd suggest that you replace that graph with this one, which shows the same thing, but takes us all the way back to the cambrian, you need to take a good deal of time to explain how the plot is stretching time along the x axis.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-72J4J7YtMS8/UYj_QVtNzLI/AAAAAAAAAAc/3P-Ax695p1g/s1600/Climate_last_542mio_years.png

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Aaron Lewis | May 22, 2013 at 18:53

The truth that “sea ice warms our winters”, depends on where one lives.

Sea ice does tend to stabilize the NH jet stream circulation that carries heat from the N Atlantic to Britain/Europe, and from the Pacific to the west coast of North America. In the past, this circulation has stabilized the continental weather.
 Sea ice was a year-round sink for latent heat. It also provided huge thermal inertial. As a year-round sink, sea ice cooled the NH, even as it helped drive the atmospheric circulation that moderated the weather on the continents. While sea ice helped drive circulation patterns that kept the continents warm in winter, sea ice per se, never warmed our winters.

Loss of year round Arctic sea ice will result in a more north/south oriented atmospheric circulation which will drive North Atlantic Drift water into the Arctic proper. The combination of these changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation with the changes in the Arctic albedo will result in a much warmer Arctic. The Arctic will become a year-round source of latent heat. This will disrupt the jet stream. This is a sea change.

Loss of a stable jet stream means that heat transfer to the interior and heat transport out of the interior of Eurasia and North America will be erratic. This is the so called “cold continent” effect. The best I can estimate is hot summers with winters punctuated by occasional, ferocious snow storms.

Slide 31 is the most important slide because reminds us that global warming and sea ice loss was going on before satellite. That means that the feedbacks in slide 34 have been operating for some time.

Canada has infrastructure build on permafrost.

 Collapse of permafrost results in nutrients in near shore waters that alter fisheries' productivity.

Mix of forest species changes resulting in changes in timber industry and wild life.
 The one class of wild life that is certain to flourish over the next 2 decades in Canada is mosquitoes.

[OldLeatherneck]

Glacierchange.wordpress.com | May 22, 2013 at 23:03

Terry and Neven great idea on the collaborative. There are lots of platforms to do this. The key is to tell a good story and that means bringing the sea ice to some life. And the life on and under the sea ice into the story. And the glaciers meeting the sea ice in to the picture. If we each generate a few slides of what we do best animation etc. Those parts are the key to a good whole.

[OldLeatherneck]

Mdoliner43 | May 22, 2013 at 23:26

Terry,

Nice work but I think you make a mistake here:
 "In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March the lack of ice would mean no change of phase. Without the phase change temperatures would be colder, but since this will only occur in warmer conditions the phrase "Arctic ice keeps winters warmer", while accurate probably conveys the wrong message."

As long as there is a combination of ice and water the temperature nearby, air and water, remains at the freezing point. If there is no ice it will remain above the freezing temperature, that is, warmer, than it would be if there were ice.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Jon Hurn | May 23, 2013 at 05:08

Love it. Need some slight work on original slide 28 / modified slide 31 - title is "August...", left axis says "...September". Wish I had enough knowledge to offer additions rather than just spot typos.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Dan Ellis-Jones | May 23, 2013 at 07:40

Hi,

I have been a lurker for a while now, and have been astounded at the level of discourse here. I have learnt a great deal about the situation in the Arctic. I wish it was less depressing!

I don't have the scientific credentials that many of you have, but I do have a fairly unique history of both working for Government (in the Office of Climate Change in Western Australia), so understand the science and the policy issues to a large extent. But I also have worked for the BBC in London and am a writer, so I have a distinct communications slant to my CV too. I also have a degree in Sustainable Development.

So, with that intro out of the way, I'd like to say to Terry that the presentation is a great foundation to work from. All involved have done a great job.

My advice and comments are that there is no positive (or as positive as is possible) conclusion. I have been mulling the idea of talking to grass roots organisations in my part of the world on Arctic Sea Ice melt, and what it means. But I have been here before and I have read and understand some of the work about communicating climate change. Just saying that it's all big and scary doesn’t work and the science is complex. There needs to be some part that says what solutions there are and measures people can take. People need to be empowered and given hope (Lester Brown’s books are successful in large part due to this). Otherwise there is only shock and disengagement, as it really is too large for us to comprehend.

For instance, there are very learned people on this site, and they all know the potential consequences of an ice-free arctic. But the discourse here isn't about what we will do once it happens (hoping that it won't but reality is that it's unlikely to be averted). But even here living in a world without Arctic sea ice is too scary to connect with properly.

I have already started (but only just!) a powerpoint presentation and I’ll continue with it. I’d be more than happy to email it to Neven and have it available for all to use, edit etc.
 Once it’s done I’ll start organizing some small meetings with people in my social networks to do a couple of test runs and hone it further, and see what happens from there.

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Neven | May 23, 2013 at 14:36

Dan, let us know how it goes. Like I said, we would need some kind of repository, perhaps chopped up in segments like Mauri suggests, so that people can pick, choose and compose their own presentation. I think this is a really exciting idea, but personally have a couple of problems: 1) No time because of work, blog, house to build, family, life in general, 2) no knowledge or experience whatsoever with either powerpoint stuff or collaborative projects.

If anyone wants to take a lead in this, great (if not is fine too), or else I might do so next year.

If I would make my own presentation I'd model it after the Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold blog post I link to above, chopped up in segments: Background and history of Arctic sea ice - recent developments - consequences in the Arctic - consequences outside the Arctic - BAU not an option.

A lot of ideas pop up the more I think about it. Unfortunately I can't afford that. But maybe next year, with the help of a website creator guru (yes, I'm thinking of you, Fred :-P ). And a 88K donation from the Heartland Institute... ;-)

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: Twemoran | May 23, 2013 at 21:55

Let me endorse OLN's comments above. This is a new concept for (all?) of us & there are going to be bumps along the path. I just recieved a message from the folks that want the presentation for a First Nations education project so I'll have to get started in that direction.
 I'm typing between doctors appointments so don't have time to address each of the posts just yet. There is a problem about the latest modified versions not being visible from the posted URL - if anyone is familiar with Google Drive and how to share things properly - please advise.

Terry

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: A-Team | May 24, 2013 at 01:06

Terry writes, "wants the presentation for First Nations".

Uh oh, in that case, you might want to tone down "the Anasazi thought they were resilient" before someone flings an atlatl.

First, Anaasází is a Navajo word for ancient enemy (ie Hopi), a bit upsidedown given the Navajo and Apaches were the regional pre-columbian aggressors recently immigrated down south from Athabasca.

 The name used down here today is Ancient Puebloans. And they were in fact quite resilient -- just moved onto the southern mesas and larger river bottoms during the century-long Four Corners drought of the 1100's that brought an end to their irrigated agriculture. Their living descendants -- based on mitochondrial DNA and language affinities -- are called Hopi, Zuñi, Keres, and Jemez.

For decades, archaelogists went on and on about the mysterious disappearance of the Ancient Puebloans. The whole time the Hopi were up on the hill, waving their hands, and calling out "youhoo, we're over here."

Nobody knows what ancient Puebloans thought about anything. The closest you could get would be Hopi oral traditions and the continuity in clan petroglyphs, as you might see comparing Sand Island to Second Mesa.

[Anne]

Terry, you may be interested in this Guardian report from Alaska about Yup'ik in Newtok, which is suffering coastal erosion. There are bureaucratic obstacles to financing the relocation of the community, who had previously been forcibly relocated to Newtok so that the children could go to school at a location that was relatively easy to access for supply and so on. The article is partial but perhaps it illustrates the point that the communities which should be most resilient by being mobile and self-sufficient have been forced into vulnerability by impersonal federal regulations that demand they become settled, and settled in unsuitable locations.

There's also this, "Climate disasters displace millions of people worldwide", but arguably the title should refer to "weather disasters" rather than "climate disasters".

[opensheart]

Hello all.
I have also put together a Arctic PowerPoint that I have been presenting to church groups.   Actually I have several separate PowerPoint decks
.
First I start off with an historical overview.   I start with some of the oldest pictures of the arctic I could find.   My goal here was to connect with any previous stories they had heard about the early arctic explorers.   This tends to go quickly.  But it does give some context for viewing current pictures later on.

Second I go into Arctic Trends.   these is where I show charts and videos of what has been happening to the Arctic Sea Ice lately.
     I found one video that talks about the melting arctic from an economic perspective.   It shows animated boats travelling the northwest and northeast passage.   And shows how the different nations are dividing up the arctic.   I've seen people really fascinated by this one.   Possibly because it is more general education than just climate change.
    Also the Melting Ice Cube video seems particularly effective.

Third deck is Current conditions.  Here is where I show the latest graphs and pictures.   People seem to be more shocked by seeing the pictures from the "Healy" in relatively ice free seas 500 miles from the pole, than from the north pole web cam that has rain on the lens.

Then I have another deck on the Jet Stream and blocking patters
One on Ocean currents
A deck on farming, food prices and social unrest
A deck on Methane Hydrates
A deck on mass tree die-offs

I would be willing to share them.  Perhaps just the Arctic ones would be more appropriate here?  What is the best way to share them?

I would also be willing to do more presenting.  I'm in Ohio, USA.

[opensheart]

What I do is I have a USB Flash Drive,  or thumb Drive, or memory stick, what ever you want to call them.   I have a separate directory for each deck, with the powerpoint, all the pictures, and any videos I want to use.    This way I can just insert the flash drive into any computer available, or my laptop, and go.

Then in the deck I have a link that takes me to the internet site of the video, for use when internet is available, and a link that plays it locally when it is not.

I could stand to learn more about what is public domain and what is not.   What I can use or not use and how to give credit when credit is due.

I also learned how to build links in powerpoint that can link together my separate decks.  so I have one introduction deck.  One slide in it has the links to all the other decks.   One can click on the link, play that deck, then return to the menu.

I only do a couple of decks a session, spreading it out over a number of sessions.

Oh and I also have a good into-to-climate-change deck that explains the basic science of climate change.   One part of that I like, is that I reference a medical site that explains how medical equipment uses the fact that CO2 absorbs infra-red more than O2 as a way to tell how far under anaesthesia a patient is.   The farther out a patient is, the more CO2 can build up.    Which makes it hard for someone to argue with the basic science of the "Green House" effect.

[opensheart]

My audiences have been very small.   Only a hand full of people show up.    I have found people very reluctant to want to know.   Sort of have to drag them into it.   But once it starts, they are hooked. I try to have something new for everyone to learn.   And the interesting/learning hooks them.   

People know it is going to be bad news, and don't want to face it.  My audiences have much rather wanted to talk about what can be done, than how bad it is.    In my latest group, I have had to mix the presentation, half on what is happening and half on what they can do.    Like the last time I presented the Arctic Slides, I also did show and tell on rain barrels.   

This half and half approach seems more acceptable to folks.   They will face 40+ minutes of bad news if there is an equally interesting discussion/presentation of what they can do.

[opensheart]

I have struggled with how to end the series.

I've gone from "Its really bad and you need to know"   to "We're all going to die" to something harder to explain.   

I now want to expose people to the range of possibilities, from "its going to be bad really soon" to "its going to take a long time to get bad" or we might even come up with ways to be OK.   And leave it up to them to decide what they want to believe.   I try to be careful not to use really scary language.   Not to build them up to some horrible climax.   Just enough to motivate them to want to do something, but not too much where they loose hope.

I do talk up Transition Towns a lot.  and the concept of getting back to local communities.

I have another ending I am toying with, but it is enough off subject that I will post it under the 'walking the walk' section of the forum.

[TerryM]

Frankendoodle sent the following message a few days ago. I've been as healthy as MYI near Fram and I'm moving at what used to a Glacial Pace.
----------------------------------------



Terry,In the interest of grabbing the attention of those who think the presentation is too graph heavy I have attached this jpeg. It shows the difference between the 1979 SIE minimum and 2012's min using known land masses for scale. It would be apropos to show this after slide 4 so people (especially your Canadian audience) can get their heads around the true scale of ice loss you'll be talking about.  The land area of those 5 provinces is ~2500 km2 less than the between the 1979 & 2012 mins. But the total area of the provinces (counting water) is ~350,000 km2 higher than 1979-2012. HOWEVER, the total area figure (land & water) for the 5 provinces is ~200,000 km2 LESS than the difference of the 1980 & 2012 SIE minimums (1980 had a min of 7,524,760 compared to 79's 6,966,220 figure on 9/15/79  which you've been using).All those confusing numbers aside, the above size comparison is fair and accurate. I didn't want you to think I was being lazy or trying to slip one by you Cheers,

--------------------

My reply follows.

Frank

That is an amazing graphic. Do you prefer to be credited using your name or your handle?
I still haven't worked out how to smoothly segue from 1979 to 1980 or where to place the slide. The next presentation will be for First Nations secondary schools and I plan to eliminate some of the more arcane scientific minutia, substituting more Canadiana, photos of building racked by permafrost melt & perhaps a forlorn Polar Bear drifting away on a small ice floe.

All of the suggestions to date have been very helpful. I'll address each one, but don't hold your breath 'cause I need my naps ;-)

Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: PhilGChapman | May 21, 2013 at 23:31

Having such a collective resource from which to draw is a nice idea. My main (and only minor) suggestion for improvement would be to have a consistent referencing style, and one or two graphs (e.g. N. Hemisphere temperature reconstructions near the start) don't appear to have a reference. But nice work, well done!

Phil
I see your point. To add references for each graph in the audio portion may eat up too much time. Most of them have a identifiable bug or are signed. Any suggestions on how to deal with the others?


Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: S Latham | May 22, 2013 at 04:30

Hi, this was really great. One question and one comment on a change of emphasis that I might employ. "Arctic sea ice acts as a buffer, cooling our summers & warming our winters" -- Slide 33. Is it true that Arctic sea ice warms our winters? I recall that the effects on the jet stream in 2012/2013 tended to cool areas over land and added moisture contributed to greater snowfall (I think), but I don't remember hearing that our Canadian winters would be colder. I thought it was just more persistent blocking that could be predicted.

My comment may just be for personal preference, but I think I would instead focus on September rather than minimums. But maybe that's just me.

SLatham


For the next presentation I'm going to leave that portion out. I was running long and there's additional information that I do want to include. Whatever the correct statement might be I think it's only going to cause confusion.


Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: NeilT | May 22, 2013 at 12:55

Neven, you might want to use the Open Source collaborative computing development model for this.

Someone owns the core. Contributors contribute to the core and the core updates with versions.

People who wish to build on the core make Forks from the core. Taking the core material and building on top of it in different directions. Any improvements they wish to make to the core, they feed back and it forms part of the basis of the next core.

When the core is upgraded to a new version, all forks then re-baseline on the new core.

Does that make sense and work for you? Someone will need to own the core and manage the versions.

Neil
I think what you're describing is what we'd like to accomplish. Do you have a link,or can you explain the process in more detail? I googled about & didn't find much. The biggest stumbling block at the moment is that the Google Drive URL seems to point to a particular version without showing the updates while the "publish to web" version shows a complete, updated slideshow without anyone having editing capabilities. I'm sure there's a simple solution -I just don't know what it might be.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: A-Team | May 22, 2013 at 17:03

The first question at a "demise" talk might be 'what are you predicting for summer 2013'. Wipneus has probably given the best overall answer to that -- the geospatial cell-by-cell exponential downtrend in volume in coming years -- but a temporary September minimum area uptick will still perplex a non-specialist audience.

So what is going to happen -- can we find a set of proxies today that predicts a record -- or at least respectable -- melt season? Craig M sees the 'Beaufort getting interesting real quick'. I also think that likely based on open water and melt on both sides of the Bering Strait. ...............................

ATeam
Believe it or not the subject wasn't broached - even later in the weekend when I was answering questions in far more depth. I'd hate to give a low prediction that might give the audience the impression that I'd been using scare tactics if it was proven wrong, so I'd probably reference Wipneus's chart and quote Admiral White. Avoiding the question, but providing an answer.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: Boa05att | May 22, 2013 at 17:27

Can I be really superficial and talk mainly about style?

The content seems great - but do you really want the conclusion to be so down? Is there nothing we can or should be doing to slow it down/prepare for the on coming disaster?

Ok so on to style - generally this is far better then a lot of presentations I've seen, so if the following seems to be nit picky- it's because you've already got a lot of the basics covered.

My main complaint is that when making a powerpoint you should never, ever, ever, use comic sans as a font! Helvetica is much better. I tend to use either that or TW Cen MT.

Some slides are still too busy and have too much text (especially slides 35-39). Slides are free you don't have to cram each one - just use lots of slides.

You want virtually no text on slides, unless say you're quoting someone. This means having a good set of notes and rehearsing what you're going to say on each slide. You want people to listen to you not read the slides. The audience can't do both, (well perhaps Mensans can ;-) )

It's also vital that where possible you avoid reading from slides. This very quickly makes an audience tune out.

Titles on slides with graphs should say what you want the audience to take away. So for example instead of " PIOMAS volume data w/projections", you could have "Volume is projected to reach zero in September 2015".

(As an aside did you present each of the PIOMAS volume graphs in turn? I think it's unnecessary to include them all as they all show the same data - I know we each have our own favorites- so maybe it's best if whoever does the presentation just chooses one

I also think that you should have at least one graph showing the wavy seasonal change in either extent or volume)

A really good guide to making super sophisticated presentations, which has served me well, can be found here:
http://www.slideshare.net/treubold/fight-the-powerpoint

If you are really want to show off then maybe someone could use PREZI - presentations using this medium can be amazing, but used inexpertly they're likely to make the audience feel queasy!
http://prezi.com/

P.S. there was one mistake that caught my eye on the graph on slide six. You have marked the age of the dinosaurs as being up to 10 million years ago, they went extinct ~65 million years ago - not including avian theropods of course :-)

I'd suggest that you replace that graph with this one, which shows the same thing, but takes us all the way back to the cambrian, you need to take a good deal of time to explain how the plot is stretching time along the x axis.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-72J4J7YtMS8/UYj_QVtNzLI/AAAAAAAAAAc/3P-Ax695p1g/s1600/Climate_last_542mio_years.png

Boa05att
The link you sent was great. There are so many points you raise that I'll just try and address them generally. You're not alone in suggesting a "happy ending", I simply don't know of one that I believe in. If you, or anyone else can think of a way that this is going to turn out OK I will include it if it seems even remotely possible. It's not that I'm an exceptionally honest person, I'm just a lousy liar, and it I say something I don't believe everyone listening knows it immediately - Lived in Las Vegas for decades & never could play poker.
Attended a lecture using PREZI - or something similar. I found it a distraction. I'm less interested in wowing them with my prowess than with amazing them with the data.
The Comic Font was a personal choice after typing the opening sentences in each bolded font and comparing. For some reason it resonated with me - if I hear many complaints I'll bow to public pressure, but at the moment I'm happy with it.
The slide has the correct age for Dino's, but if you misunderstood it, others will also. I've changed it to show Neanderthal and Homo Sapien in a different, flip chart animation scheme that may improve clarity.
I'm taking everything you've written into account as I splice together the next presentation.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: Aaron Lewis | May 22, 2013 at 18:53

The truth that “sea ice warms our winters”, depends on where one lives.

Sea ice does tend to stabilize the NH jet stream circulation that carries heat from the N Atlantic to Britain/Europe, and from the Pacific to the west coast of North America. In the past, this circulation has stabilized the continental weather.
 Sea ice was a year-round sink for latent heat. It also provided huge thermal inertial. As a year-round sink, sea ice cooled the NH, even as it helped drive the atmospheric circulation that moderated the weather on the continents. While sea ice helped drive circulation patterns that kept the continents warm in winter, sea ice per se, never warmed our winters.

Loss of year round Arctic sea ice will result in a more north/south oriented atmospheric circulation which will drive North Atlantic Drift water into the Arctic proper. The combination of these changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation with the changes in the Arctic albedo will result in a much warmer Arctic. The Arctic will become a year-round source of latent heat. This will disrupt the jet stream. This is a sea change.

Loss of a stable jet stream means that heat transfer to the interior and heat transport out of the interior of Eurasia and North America will be erratic. This is the so called “cold continent” effect. The best I can estimate is hot summers with winters punctuated by occasional, ferocious snow storms.

Slide 31 is the most important slide because reminds us that global warming and sea ice loss was going on before satellite. That means that the feedbacks in slide 34 have been operating for some time.

Canada has infrastructure build on permafrost.

 Collapse of permafrost results in nutrients in near shore waters that alter fisheries' productivity.

Mix of forest species changes resulting in changes in timber industry and wild life.
 The one class of wild life that is certain to flourish over the next 2 decades in Canada is mosquitoes.

Aaron
Your last three paragraphs are wonderful - I will be using the mosquitoes phrase!
Terry

[TerryM]

Glacierchange.wordpress.com | May 22, 2013 at 23:03

Terry and Neven great idea on the collaborative. There are lots of platforms to do this. The key is to tell a good story and that means bringing the sea ice to some life. And the life on and under the sea ice into the story. And the glaciers meeting the sea ice in to the picture. If we each generate a few slides of what we do best animation etc. Those parts are the key to a good whole.

Mauri
Can you explain the "lots of platforms"? I'm having difficulty getting Google Drive to do what I want - probably because of my ineptitude - but another method of collaboration could be an improvement. Sea life - at least Orcas and Polar Bears - will be included in the next talk. I'm wondering if one of the speeded up animations of glacial flow would be good?
Terry

[TerryM]

Mdoliner43 | May 22, 2013 at 23:26

Terry,

Nice work but I think you make a mistake here:
 "In the months when freezing now occurs from October through to March the lack of ice would mean no change of phase. Without the phase change temperatures would be colder, but since this will only occur in warmer conditions the phrase "Arctic ice keeps winters warmer", while accurate probably conveys the wrong message."

As long as there is a combination of ice and water the temperature nearby, air and water, remains at the freezing point. If there is no ice it will remain above the freezing temperature, that is, warmer, than it would be if there were ice.

Mdoliner
I'm dropping that entirely. Think it causes more confusion than it's worth.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: Jon Hurn | May 23, 2013 at 05:08

Love it. Need some slight work on original slide 28 / modified slide 31 - title is "August...", left axis says "...September". Wish I had enough knowledge to offer additions rather than just spot typos.

Jon
Thanks for the catch! I've been leaving the "as presented" version alone, but this needs to be changed.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: Dan Ellis-Jones | May 23, 2013 at 07:40

Hi,

I have been a lurker for a while now, and have been astounded at the level of discourse here. I have learnt a great deal about the situation in the Arctic. I wish it was less depressing!

I don't have the scientific credentials that many of you have, but I do have a fairly unique history of both working for Government (in the Office of Climate Change in Western Australia), so understand the science and the policy issues to a large extent. But I also have worked for the BBC in London and am a writer, so I have a distinct communications slant to my CV too. I also have a degree in Sustainable Development.

So, with that intro out of the way, I'd like to say to Terry that the presentation is a great foundation to work from. All involved have done a great job.

My advice and comments are that there is no positive (or as positive as is possible) conclusion. I have been mulling the idea of talking to grass roots organisations in my part of the world on Arctic Sea Ice melt, and what it means. But I have been here before and I have read and understand some of the work about communicating climate change. Just saying that it's all big and scary doesn’t work and the science is complex. There needs to be some part that says what solutions there are and measures people can take. People need to be empowered and given hope (Lester Brown’s books are successful in large part due to this). Otherwise there is only shock and disengagement, as it really is too large for us to comprehend.

For instance, there are very learned people on this site, and they all know the potential consequences of an ice-free arctic. But the discourse here isn't about what we will do once it happens (hoping that it won't but reality is that it's unlikely to be averted). But even here living in a world without Arctic sea ice is too scary to connect with properly.

I have already started (but only just!) a powerpoint presentation and I’ll continue with it. I’d be more than happy to email it to Neven and have it available for all to use, edit etc.
 Once it’s done I’ll start organizing some small meetings with people in my social networks to do a couple of test runs and hone it further, and see what happens from there.

Dan
If you can think of a positive solution please let me know. I'm aware that gloom & doom don't sell, but haven't been able to find a way out. If you don't mind putting your presentation out for others to use I think it would be wonderful.
Terry

[TerryM]

Posted by: A-Team | May 24, 2013 at 01:06

Terry writes, "wants the presentation for First Nations".

Uh oh, in that case, you might want to tone down "the Anasazi thought they were resilient" before someone flings an atlatl.

First, Anaasází is a Navajo word for ancient enemy (ie Hopi), a bit upsidedown given the Navajo and Apaches were the regional pre-columbian aggressors recently immigrated down south from Athabasca.

 The name used down here today is Ancient Puebloans. And they were in fact quite resilient -- just moved onto the southern mesas and larger river bottoms during the century-long Four Corners drought of the 1100's that brought an end to their irrigated agriculture. Their living descendants -- based on mitochondrial DNA and language affinities -- are called Hopi, Zuñi, Keres, and Jemez.

For decades, archaelogists went on and on about the mysterious disappearance of the Ancient Puebloans. The whole time the Hopi were up on the hill, waving their hands, and calling out "youhoo, we're over here."

Nobody knows what ancient Puebloans thought about anything. The closest you could get would be Hopi oral traditions and the continuity in clan petroglyphs, as you might see comparing Sand Island to Second Mesa.

A-Team

Anasazi was undoubtedly a bad choice. A friend discovered the largest petroglyph panel in Nevada, that also included the furthest west & probably earliest Hopi clan symbols. Khota Circus is what he named it & some of the stuff was amazing. Manos and Metates scattered about & a very old rendition of a mammoth tossing someone with it's tusks.. The Anasazi moved in across the river some time later & the area was used by groups wanting to trade, but not to be seen as possible raiders - at least that was Robert's interpretation.
Terry

[TerryM]

Terry, you may be interested in this Guardian report from Alaska about Yup'ik in Newtok, which is suffering coastal erosion. There are bureaucratic obstacles to financing the relocation of the community, who had previously been forcibly relocated to Newtok so that the children could go to school at a location that was relatively easy to access for supply and so on. The article is partial but perhaps it illustrates the point that the communities which should be most resilient by being mobile and self-sufficient have been forced into vulnerability by impersonal federal regulations that demand they become settled, and settled in unsuitable locations.

There's also this, "Climate disasters displace millions of people worldwide", but arguably the title should refer to "weather disasters" rather than "climate disasters".

Anne
The next presentation will be addressing First Nations & coastal erosion photo's will be included. Don't know what how the Guardian feels about sharing theirs, but I'll find out.
Terry

[TerryM]

Hello all.
I have also put together a Arctic PowerPoint that I have been presenting to church groups.   Actually I have several separate PowerPoint decks
.
First I start off with an historical overview.   I start with some of the oldest pictures of the arctic I could find.   My goal here was to connect with any previous stories they had heard about the early arctic explorers.   This tends to go quickly.  But it does give some context for viewing current pictures later on.

Second I go into Arctic Trends.   these is where I show charts and videos of what has been happening to the Arctic Sea Ice lately.
     I found one video that talks about the melting arctic from an economic perspective.   It shows animated boats travelling the northwest and northeast passage.   And shows how the different nations are dividing up the arctic.   I've seen people really fascinated by this one.   Possibly because it is more general education than just climate change.
    Also the Melting Ice Cube video seems particularly effective.

Third deck is Current conditions.  Here is where I show the latest graphs and pictures.   People seem to be more shocked by seeing the pictures from the "Healy" in relatively ice free seas 500 miles from the pole, than from the north pole web cam that has rain on the lens.

Then I have another deck on the Jet Stream and blocking patters
One on Ocean currents
A deck on farming, food prices and social unrest
A deck on Methane Hydrates
A deck on mass tree die-offs

I would be willing to share them.  Perhaps just the Arctic ones would be more appropriate here?  What is the best way to share them?

I would also be willing to do more presenting.  I'm in Ohio, USA.

OpenHeart
I'd really appreciate access to your presentations. As I'd mentioned above I think if we all put out what we've done so far, with the understanding that everyone is free to "borrow" what they need, we'll end up with things that are much better than any of us could produce by ourselves. I'd tried to fit the melting cube into my last but didn't see it in time. Your experiences as a presenter are also important - you've a much better idea of what works and what doesn't than someone like myself who is new to this.
Terry

[TerryM]

It's amazing how things can build up when you're away from the computer for a couple of days. I wanted to answer all the posts individually & probably ate up far too much band width doing so. I haven't done anything with the presentation since.


https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1kla8XtsIa6NDqC91jCPA0UtNljJfxyUT1ZbG-J7gpd4/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000


You have to open the notes in "options" to read along.


I'll try to implement more of the suggested changes & start concentrating on First Nations concerns after a long nap ;.]
Terry

[OldLeatherneck]

Posted by: NeilT | May 22, 2013 at 12:55

Neven, you might want to use the Open Source collaborative computing development model for this.

Someone owns the core. Contributors contribute to the core and the core updates with versions.

People who wish to build on the core make Forks from the core. Taking the core material and building on top of it in different directions. Any improvements they wish to make to the core, they feed back and it forms part of the basis of the next core.

When the core is upgraded to a new version, all forks then re-baseline on the new core.

Does that make sense and work for you? Someone will need to own the core and manage the versions.

Neil
I think what you're describing is what we'd like to accomplish. Do you have a link,or can you explain the process in more detail? I googled about & didn't find much. The biggest stumbling block at the moment is that the Google Drive URL seems to point to a particular version without showing the updates while the "publish to web" version shows a complete, updated slideshow without anyone having editing capabilities. I'm sure there's a simple solution -I just don't know what it might be.
Terry

NeilT & Terry,

I've looked at that Open Source Collaborative  tool and it appears to be useful only for software development.  I've tried searching for platforms other that GoogleDocs and can't find anything better at this time.

For anyone to add charts to a presentation the "owner" must give the permission.  This could lead to some configuration management problems if too many people have access to the same file.  While I trust 99+% of the contributors on ASIB and the Forum, it would only take one troll to completely destroy an entire presentation.

Since Terry is the "owner" of the two Niagara presentations, only he can give editting permissions.  It would be my request that if you recommend changes to an existing chart that you copy the original chart, leaving the  original intact.  Please annotate the revised chart that it is a recommended change.  I also recommend that you download the file to your computer so that you can work off-line.

I am considering opening another Google Docs file with just a few blank template charts.  Once given permission, individual contributors can then submit word charts charts, graphic charts or just photos that others can use.  If I do this, I will attempt to save the file to my computer on a regular basis.

I still prefer making the charts in Power Point and then inserting them into the Google Docs file as needed.

[OldLeatherneck]

Understanding Your Audience

This will be my first post, in a series, regarding the design, development and execution of effective presentations.

During the latter years of my career, I often said in jest that the average corporate vice president, senior civil service executive and flag officer (General/Admiral) only has a 7 minute attention span.  I didn't mean that in any derogatory sense, knowing that they generally have many responsibilities and limited time to devote to any one topic.  If their attention is captured in a brief period of time, they will let you know that they want more information personally, whether they want you to provide more information to their staff members or whether they can't be bothered with this topic.  I've personally had multiple experiences of each of the above reactions.

Why did I start with describing a potential audience at the top of the food-chain?  Because these are the people that we eventually need to listen, understand and begin to take actions to resolve the critical issues we face regarding the eventual  impacts of declining arctic sea ice and AGW/CC in  general.

However, most of us who care to make and give effective presentations will be facing a variety of audiences, most of whom have little knowledge on the topic and possibly little scientific knowledge with which to better understand the issues we face.

Think for a moment if your were going to create one chart or a series of charts on one specific topic related to ice-loss, taking albedo as an example of your chosen topic.  What chart(s) and/or graphs/graphics would you use for any one of the following audiences?

1.  Policymakers
2.  Informal group of the general citizenry
3.  Group of scientifically literate concerned citizens
4.  Group of first-year Earth Sciences undergraduates
5.  Group of graduate students any science related to climatology
6.  Multi-disciplanary group of PhDs in various fields related to climatology

As you can see, there is no one chart or series of charts that is applicable for presentation for every potential audience.  However, it would be great to have charts available for presentation to any of the above audiences.

I'm going to close this post with a quote of what I recommended, in an e-mail, to Terry prior to his presentation to the Canadian Mensans a few weeks ago:

In regards to the depth and scope of your presentation, I'm aware that you are giving this presentation to a group of very bright individuals.  However, I'm also aware there will be differences in fields, levels of education, career and life experiences as well as interests.  Concentrate on 80% of your audience.  Forget about the 10% that have little relevant knowledge or interest.  Also, don't try to impress the other 10% who are very knowledgeable about this topic or the related physical sciences.

You also should decide on the balance you place between educating your audience and motivating them to take action

[Laurent]

I found this information, may be that can help ?
http://crowdcrafting.org/
http://opensource.com/life/13/5/crowdcrafting?sc_cid=70160000000bOHeAAM

[OldLeatherneck]

I found this information, may be that can help ?
http://crowdcrafting.org/
http://opensource.com/life/13/5/crowdcrafting?sc_cid=70160000000bOHeAAM

Laurent,

THANK YOU!!  The links you provided may be invaluable.  While I've yet to find a crowd-sourcing platform specifically designed for collaborative presentation development,  I believe that I found a file sharing platform that will function adequately.  If this is the case, individual members could upload existing presentations, charts, graphs, pictures and supporting documents for review and access by other team members.

Seafile

File Syncing and Collaboration for Teams

http://seafile.com/en/home/

This site provides free file storage in the cloud for up to 1 GB.  For $10/month you can get storage up to 100GB.  For $50/month you get 500GB.

If the group feels this platform is the one we want to use,  I'm willing to pay the $10/month initially because it won't take long to consume 1GB of storage.  Or, if we wish, we can try the limited capacity option and see if it provides the flexibility we need before committing funds for something that may not be useful.

[Laurent]

I did forget there is also "Dropbox" if you only want to share some files between people.
The client is available on the library ubuntu !
For free you have 2 Go, 10$/month for 100 Go.
https://www.dropbox.com/pricing

[Laurent]

It is a little off topic but here you can find some infos on the openess in science.
http://www.opensciencetraining.com/movielist.php
Choosing the right licence is quite difficult, creative common makes it more simple.

[opensheart]

Yes I would like to see a collaborative online space.

I tried my hand at uploading one of my powerpoint decks to google docs.  I think this is the link.   Can people try it out and see if it works?

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bw4tKMIAgSPEUEJiQUZNbm1FcXc/edit?usp=sharing

[OldLeatherneck]

Yes I would like to see a collaborative online space.

I tried my hand at uploading one of my powerpoint decks to google docs.  I think this is the link.   Can people try it out and see if it works?

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bw4tKMIAgSPEUEJiQUZNbm1FcXc/edit?usp=sharing

opensheart,

The link worked perfectly and you have some excellent historical pictures that I am sure will add value to other presentations that may be a result of this project.

Within the next day or two, I will open a file sharing site for this project.  While google docs works well for a limited number of people to have access to one presentation for collaborative purposes, it has some limitations.  One of them being that there is only one owner, who then bears the full responsibility of configuration control.  Whereas, with a file sharing site, once someone is granted access, they then can add their own files.  These files could then be documents, individual graphs, charts, pictures and/or complete presentations.  This will require some protocols to be established.  I will try to document some configuration control protocols when I open a file sharing site.

Thanks for your willingness to participate and share your efforts.  We are anxious to see other charts you have prepared and hear of your experiences presenting to other groups.

[TerryM]

Opensheart


Your link opened with no problem. I especially liked your opening slide with the "crying ice". Looking forward to more [size=78%]


I'm stuck doing other things at the moment, but hope to be more active in the near future.


Terry[/size]