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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 8964 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2020, 07:38:15 PM »
What goes very impressively up may go as equally impressively down.
So far not quite so impressively down...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #51 on: November 04, 2020, 02:45:48 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?

bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #52 on: November 04, 2020, 03:15:36 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?
The Canucks are more accurate there has been lots of cloud interference /



It is going to be advancing rapidly next few days it is not obvious yet but wait til end of month and compare, maybe I'm wrong, we shall see.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2020, 03:23:48 PM »
The meteo people tell us that Al Nina years are associated with a cold Canada.
A recent science paper claims an association between low Bering Sea winter ice and a cold Canada.
Environment Canada has a forecast of a pretty cold November for much of Canada

An early freeze of Hudson Bay by a few days  is very possible, but so what? Hudson Bay has pretty much ignored AGW so far.
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2020, 06:02:52 PM »
Snow extent is crashing, and a continued warm week ahead is forecasted for North America and Eastern Europe/Western Siberia.  NH Snow extent anomaly is already -1.8 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing, and bound to crash further.  That's some additional albedo feedback right there that should postpone the onset of deep winter cold for much of the arctic. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #55 on: November 06, 2020, 04:37:05 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/5/2020) -2.392 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.  It's a bit surprising considering all the open water in the Arctic seas, but it's just too warm in North America and Eastern Europe / Western Siberia for precipitation to fall as snow quite yet. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #56 on: November 07, 2020, 04:50:45 PM »
A little bit of a dip today back to "only" a -2.1 million km^2 anomaly for NH snow cover extent.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2020, 05:33:38 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/7/2020) -2.987 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing. 

Weather is not the same as climate, but if re-glaciation in the northern hemisphere is indeed going to happen as per bbr's predictions (doubtful, in my opinion), it looks like it won't be a straight trend without notable reverses or exceptions...

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2020, 05:42:21 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #59 on: November 09, 2020, 01:45:15 PM »
The climate scientists tell us that global heating means that snowfall will be later starting up in lower latitudes but overall there is going to be more of it.

November 8th data & map supports that - especially Europe & Western Siberia.
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #60 on: November 09, 2020, 10:42:32 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/8/2020) -3.184 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #61 on: November 12, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »
Some decent snowfalls in the upper Midwestern U.S. and around the Ural region of Russia, but NH snow extent anomaly still (11/11/2020) -1.842 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #62 on: November 13, 2020, 04:24:09 PM »
11/12/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -2.191 million km^2. 

SimonF92

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #63 on: November 13, 2020, 07:55:57 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

Its dangerous to say that is it "wrong". In the 60s, if you mentioned "global warming" youd have been told you were wrong.

I understand its banned because it is pretty wild, but that doesnt mean its wrong.

Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2020, 11:18:40 AM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
Record North American extent and volume are dismissed because posters here don't know the difference between hemispheres and continents.

My reply is moderated and in red.

So why should I keep participating here.





And you just attacked me as well. I bothered logging back in to say this but maybe next time I won't, I am pretty over this.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #66 on: November 14, 2020, 03:26:08 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

Its dangerous to say that is it "wrong". In the 60s, if you mentioned "global warming" youd have been told you were wrong.

I understand its banned because it is pretty wild, but that doesnt mean its wrong.

OK. It's just unsupported completely by any relevant science.

kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #67 on: November 14, 2020, 05:11:18 PM »
His theory and the actual science it is derived from are two different things. Discussing the actual science is ok.
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #68 on: November 14, 2020, 08:50:58 PM »
Folks, reglaciation is to be discussed only in the designated thread. If anyone has trouble finding it I can post a link later. If anyone wants to explore the science or lack thereof, feel free to do so over there.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2020, 08:52:11 PM »
Record NA snowfall is certainly welcome to be discussed here.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #70 on: November 16, 2020, 04:58:16 PM »
11/15/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -1.592 million km^2.

European Russia FINALLY getting some snow, but some retreat in east Asia and North America. 

Kids decades from now (or even right now) are going to read about the Kronstadt rebellion during the Russian Civil War, and scratch their heads over how the Red Army was able to send cavalry over the frozen ice in March from Petrograd to the Kronstadt naval base, unless it is explicitly explained to them that the climate used to be different.  Or likewise, they are going to be scratching their heads over why Operation Typhoon in November of 1941 was so difficult meteorologically for the German Wehrmacht. 

El Cid

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #71 on: November 16, 2020, 06:04:51 PM »
  Or likewise, they are going to be scratching their heads over why Operation Typhoon in November of 1941 was so difficult meteorologically for the German Wehrmacht.

...and they will be told that it was unseasonally, unexpectedly  unbelievably cold during 1941 Nov and Dec in Eastern Europe and Russia as shown in the attachement. It was one of the coldest winters of the century.  It was 4-5 C colder in November and December than the average of that era! Even October was 2-3 C colder. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #72 on: November 19, 2020, 06:39:03 PM »
North America snow @ 18 Nov from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

SCE about 1 SD above average,
SWE very much above average.

which seems to be the patttern for early winter in recent years.

Mind you, if the centre and north of North America gets really cold (due to Al Nina and low winter sea ice in the Bering) perhaps it could get too cold for snow.
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #73 on: November 19, 2020, 09:28:45 PM »
For the record, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is still below average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/18/20 it is -0.582 million km^2. 

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #74 on: November 21, 2020, 11:49:31 PM »
For the first time in a while this year, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is going significantly above average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/20/20 it is +0.510 million km^2.

Total combined northern hemisphere snow + ice extent is still barely below average, but most of that below-average ice extent is in the Kara Sea where the sun isn't shining anyways, so now finally the winter snow is getting some positive albedo feedback to deepen cold temperatures and snow extent further.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #75 on: November 23, 2020, 06:48:47 PM »
11/22/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  +1.236 million km^2. 

Quite a burst of snowfall in Eurasia!

The Walrus

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #76 on: November 26, 2020, 04:27:11 PM »
A major snowstorm is developing in the U.S.  Expect big changes next week.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #77 on: December 08, 2020, 07:28:33 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Snow as at 7 Dec

Eurasia SCE pretty much average, SWE pretty much usual 1SD and more abovwe average.

North America a surprise?
SCE more or less stalled in the lat 3 weeks while SWE stays well above +1S above average.
My speculations are
- a mostly warm USA means not so much snow cover,
- but in the North of Canada that relative warmth means more moisture but falling as snow - hence above average SWE.

My speculation for the rest of winter is for NA is December stays warmish but Jan to March will be bloody cold, so cold in Canada that there won't be a lot of snow there but maybe loads in the lower 48..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #78 on: December 08, 2020, 09:43:35 PM »
Any word on what happened with the Cryosphere Computing website?  It is still down for me.  It's my go-to resource for charting the snow extent anomaly.

SimonF92

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #79 on: December 08, 2020, 11:17:52 PM »
Any word on what happened with the Cryosphere Computing website?  It is still down for me.  It's my go-to resource for charting the snow extent anomaly.

Hes migrating the site i believe, Kassy linked the thread yesterday

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3350.0.html
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #80 on: December 10, 2020, 03:52:09 PM »
Good, now that Cryosphere Computing is back online, I can check the NH snow extent anomaly.  For 12/9/2020, it is -1.220 million km^2.  Above average snow extent in Asia, way below average snow extent in North America currently.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #81 on: December 23, 2020, 03:45:59 AM »
On the solstice (12/21/20), NH snow extent anomaly was -2.107 million km^2. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #82 on: December 24, 2020, 07:33:21 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 23rd December

Environment Canada graphs say for both North America and Eurasia, while Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is below Average, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) i.e. mass, is well above average.

It is Europe and the Lower 48 especially that are short of snow.

But 3-4 months to go.
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Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #83 on: December 30, 2020, 10:59:40 PM »
On 12/29/20, NH snow extent anomaly was -1.438 million km^2.

NH snow extent has been consistently below average over the past week.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #84 on: January 05, 2021, 07:51:01 PM »
On 1/04/21, NH snow extent anomaly was -2.028 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

NH snow extent has been consistently below average over the past week.  15 days past the winter solstice, days are now getting meaningfully longer each day in the northern hemisphere, and lack of snow extent starts to matter more and more as an albedo jumpstart for the spring thaw and melt ponding. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #85 on: January 06, 2021, 01:30:06 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 5 jan 2021

Environment Canada graphs say for both North America and Eurasia, while Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is at or below Average, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) i.e. mass, is well above average.

But still 3-4 months to go, and a developing SSW that could disrupt things a lot.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #86 on: January 06, 2021, 05:17:10 PM »
Wouldn't a breakdown of the polar vortex tend to increase NH snow?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #87 on: January 06, 2021, 06:17:25 PM »
Wouldn't a breakdown of the polar vortex tend to increase NH snow?
At which point one asks - where is/are the climate scientist/s when you need one/them?

But a long article on Neven's blog from way back in 2013 can be found @ https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #88 on: January 06, 2021, 08:40:54 PM »
One of my old favorites. It all turns out be be really complicated.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #89 on: January 08, 2021, 12:09:18 AM »
On 1/06/21, NH snow extent anomaly was -2.351 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Northern hemisphere snow extent has been significantly below average for the past week.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #90 on: January 08, 2021, 10:04:09 AM »
Thanks for these recurring updates, Comradez.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #91 on: January 10, 2021, 07:59:59 PM »
A site I like to check regularly to watch snow cover is https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
It appears to have gone off line.
Does anyone know of an alternative site?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #92 on: January 10, 2021, 08:45:12 PM »
A site I like to check regularly to watch snow cover is https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
It appears to have gone off line.
Does anyone know of an alternative site?
This one?
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/nhland/11

Lots of menu options
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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grixm

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #93 on: January 10, 2021, 10:21:05 PM »
A site I like to check regularly to watch snow cover is https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
It appears to have gone off line.
Does anyone know of an alternative site?

I like this one (scroll down a bit): https://cryospherecomputing.tk/

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #94 on: January 11, 2021, 07:47:45 PM »
On 1/10/21, NH snow extent anomaly was -1.535 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Northern hemisphere snow extent has been significantly below average for the past week.

Comradez

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #95 on: January 15, 2021, 07:28:43 PM »
On 1/14/21, NH snow extent anomaly was -1.362 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Northern hemisphere snow extent has been slightly below average for the past week. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #96 on: January 19, 2021, 01:00:34 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

North America snowfall a really good exemplification of that AGW should reduce snow cover extent (SCE) at lower latitudes and and increase snow water equivalent, i.e. mass, (SWE) at higher latitudes (and elevation) until (as in the UK) it's just too warm for snow nearly all the time.

Similar but not as pronounced this year in Eurasia.
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #97 on: January 19, 2021, 05:21:28 PM »
On 1/18/21, NH snow extent anomaly was -1.096 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Northern hemisphere snow extent has been slightly below average for the past week.