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Brigantine

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #200 on: July 23, 2022, 08:45:08 AM »
SMOS July 21
And the arctic one in Steven's graph form, for recent context: Normality resumes

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #201 on: July 24, 2022, 07:41:29 PM »
The devil's in the detail. When you have blue in a
wide band from fram to the New Siberian islands right through the pole. It's significant.
So is the spew out of West Greenland, and high export to the ESAS and Beaufort.

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #202 on: July 24, 2022, 07:46:25 PM »
22nd

Glen Koehler

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #203 on: July 25, 2022, 12:17:09 AM »
    Remember -- despite the scale bar being labeled as ice thickness, SMOS un summer is not a measure of ice thickness.
“What is at stake.... Everything, I would say." ~ Julienne Stroeve

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #204 on: August 14, 2022, 01:04:37 AM »
I think that meltponds frozen over is a vanishingly small phenomena in the ice state of today, at this time of the season. As effectively all meltponds are plumbed to the ocean, therefore at sealevel, there may be freshwater freezing on the surface, but that surface is sealevel.
Since we are seeing such variable results from more recent Satellites using radar bands that cannot distinguish between ice and snow cloud, and sea ice, if SMOS, with its long wave radar gives consistent results, particularly in the large areas reading under 20cm on the scale, then the information is useful. Too much emphasis is given to the beige and thicker shades, which merely indicate that the uncertainty is larger.
Another advantage of SMOS long wavelength, is it doesn't fall foul of long period waves that are not attenuated by modern ice, even large appearing on low resolution visuals, "floes" that are more like a fragile chainmail sheet on the ocean. No flexural rigidity exists for waves in the 100 to 600m wavelength, and their peaks and troughs can be mistaken for too of ice and sealevel by high resolution sensors.

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #205 on: August 16, 2022, 07:31:53 AM »
It continues. Between this and what visuals and Radar I am seeing, the Bering to CAA Pacific bite looks near amputation out to 80N of the inner Beaufort Ice. The ESS Arm is very close to being chopped similarly betwey Chukchi and Laptev at around 85N. And on the Atlantic side of Greenland-Pole-New Siberian islands is all but amputated and in the exit chute.
It could take just one decent size and strength autumn cyclone in the next six weeks to finish this lot off completely.

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #206 on: August 17, 2022, 04:37:02 PM »
Little change.

OffTheGrid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #207 on: August 20, 2022, 12:28:59 AM »
Increasing winds enhancing export already.

uniquorn

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #208 on: October 18, 2022, 11:03:30 AM »
Quick comparison of oct1-17, 2017-2022 looking for effects of the oct7 storm.
Some similarity with 2020 east of Chukchi plateau. Seems there's normally an indent there, where incoming Pacific water falls into the Beaufort, which was lengthened by the storm this year.

oren

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #209 on: October 18, 2022, 04:44:30 PM »
Nice animation.
I notice the CAA main channel thickness is the lowest of the past 6 years, due to the complete melt-out this year.

uniquorn

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #210 on: October 26, 2022, 01:13:38 PM »
Follow up on the record low pressure cyclone on oct7
1. Comparison of oct25, 2010-2022, ani and static
3. suomi/npp brightness temp, oct18-25 (19th removed due to cloud)
https://go.nasa.gov/3zh0rh1

Quite a spin in that area of the ocean gyre and the dark area moves with it, suggesting warmer ice, so probably thinner, as air temps were -12C to -16C
Looks more like a surface feature though, heavy snow?

« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 01:38:11 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #211 on: October 26, 2022, 03:39:42 PM »
I kwow this is not directly related, but the 2020 image showing the situation in the Laptev and ESS is astounding when compared to other years, including the bad ones like 2012 and 2016.
I guess I forgot what it was like, though I now recall A-Team and others had quite a few discussions about the subject at the time.

uniquorn

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #212 on: December 07, 2022, 12:11:39 PM »
Follow up on the record low pressure cyclone on oct7
<>

A small area of thinner ice drifting away from the Chukchi plateau
uni bremen smos, oct1-dec6

Steven

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #213 on: June 02, 2023, 08:21:15 PM »
Is there any figures yet on the wetness of the ice from the SMOS charts?

(graph from last year) Referring to this one? Good call, I'd also be interested in where 2023 is sitting.

P.S. SMOS daily png location

Here are the updated links:

https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/surface-melt





Technical notes: 

Meanwhile I found SMOS numeric data files on the Bremen website.  I changed my pixel counting algorithm to use the numeric data instead of the images.  This simplifies the code a lot, and it avoids artifacts from the blurry images.  The calculated results are very similar to the original pixel count on the images.  The differences between the old and new algorithm are usually well below 1%.  The largest differences are for 2011 and especially 2010 which often have missing data in Hudson and Baffin Bay.

As before, the algorithm tries to deal with missing data by interpolating them from nearby pixels.

In the old algorithm for weighted pixel count I had decided for some reason to ignore all the blue pixels in the images (i.e. all pixels with a value of less than 0.11).  In retrospect I think that was a bad decision.  So in the new algorithm I'm including all pixels in the weighted count, including the blue ones.  As before, beige pixels are given the arbitrary numeric value 0.6 in the weighted count while the other colors have values between 0 and 0.5.

oren

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #214 on: June 03, 2023, 12:52:54 AM »
Thank you again Steven.

Steven

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #215 on: June 09, 2023, 08:03:08 PM »
I added on my website an automated animation of the Bremen SMOS images of the last 7 days:
https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/surface-melt



I'm not sure if the animation is useful in this form.  Anyway, the animation will be updated daily. 

P.S.  In previous years the Bremen SMOS images and data used to be updated around 7a.m. UTC each day, but this year it seems to be several hours later, at irregular times, sometimes even in the afternoon.

binntho

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #216 on: June 10, 2023, 07:45:57 AM »
This looks very good, thanks!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Re: SMOS
« Reply #217 on: July 06, 2023, 05:27:32 AM »
Very widespread and thorough surface wetness across the Arctic Basin lately

be cause

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #218 on: July 06, 2023, 10:51:03 AM »
there's been a lot of wet snow .
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

binntho

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #219 on: July 06, 2023, 11:03:24 AM »
there's been a lot of wet snow .
How do you know?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #220 on: July 06, 2023, 11:25:20 AM »
Very widespread and thorough surface wetness across the Arctic Basin lately
Weirdly, half the beige pixels are in Foxe basin.

be cause

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #221 on: July 06, 2023, 04:13:46 PM »
there's been a lot of wet snow .
How do you know?


hi binntho .
    there has been a lot of ppt , mostly seen as snow by gfs  ( on meteociel ) , yet there continues to be a lot of melting of lying snow with only brief local accumulations . This is again where observation via worldview etc is far more informative than nullschool and other models . As I have only had download speeds to enjoy WV more recently , I use it a lot . NS interprets a lot and I have never trusted it very much . eg ATM it has been forecasting waves recently where there is solid ice , probably interpreting surface melt as open water .
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

binntho

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #222 on: July 07, 2023, 04:54:32 AM »
Thanks for the explanation. It's the "lot" that I am wondering about. The Arctic tends to see very little precipitation in general, and my feeling is that this year has had more clear skies than the last few years. And no major low pressure areas that could deliver significant amounts of precipitation.

GFS does not show precipitiation for the Arctic (as far as I know) but Nullschool shows what they call 3 hour precipitation accumulation, which tends to be fairly accurate where I live. However, Nullschool also seems to have lower surface temperatures than GFS, showing larger areas below 0C.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Michael Hauber

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #223 on: July 07, 2023, 05:39:22 AM »
The lows circulating around Laptev have definitely had precipitation.  EC model via windy has shown both rain and snow.  Satellite images on MODIS at times have shown impressive plumes of convection, that I had considering posting on the forum, and likely contained at least a little bit of thunderstorm activity.  Sea ice has noticeably whitened after passage of the low and then darkened again so I'd be pretty confident that we've seen snow falling and then melting again around the disperse area in and adjacent to Laptev region.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

binntho

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #224 on: July 07, 2023, 08:33:18 PM »
Michael Hauber no doubt, there is rain and snow as usual. But is it a lot? My impression is that there is no more precipitation this year than other years, maybe even less.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

be cause

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #225 on: July 11, 2023, 02:59:18 PM »
My 'a lot' was principally referring to the frequency of ppt in the eastern basin . Today's forecast has 3 'events' over the coming week , mostly rain .
 
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Steven

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #226 on: July 14, 2023, 09:36:32 PM »
I didn't have the time yet to look at the SMOS data in the last few weeks.  Here's a belated analysis of the June data (which is correlated with September sea ice extent).

SMOS beige pixel count in June 2023 was a bit higher than the 2010-2022 average.  The correlation with September sea ice extent suggests a prediction of 4.68M km2 for the September 2023 NSIDC extent.

Using the correlation with the June weighted (instead of beige) pixel count suggests a value of 4.81M km2 for the September 2023 NSIDC extent.

The last attachment below shows a scatter plot for the correlation between June SMOS weighted pixel count and September NSIDC sea ice extent.  Forecasts based on this correlation worked pretty well in 2018, 2019 and 2022, but didn't perform well in 2020 and 2021.

Steven

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #227 on: July 14, 2023, 09:55:04 PM »
In addition to SMOS, I'm also updating the JAXA AMSR2 non-melting pixel counting graph again.  This is a variant of an old Wipneus graph, as discussed upthread in previous years.  This data is correlated with SMOS pixel count, but has been running relatively high in recent weeks  (suggesting weak surface melting).  It has dropped in the last few days as surface melting has been ramping up.  The data is also available on my Google site: https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/surface-melt


oren

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #228 on: July 15, 2023, 01:43:18 AM »
Thanks for the updates.

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #229 on: July 17, 2023, 05:13:03 PM »
Beige pixels? Never heard of em... :o

HapHazard

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #230 on: July 24, 2023, 05:39:34 AM »
Still no WorldView, so here's some more SMOS. Still looking quite melty, esp. Beaufort & ESS areas.



If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Steven

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #231 on: August 02, 2023, 11:16:46 PM »
Looking back at last month (monthly average):

The SMOS weighted pixel count for July 2023 was 5th lowest on record and was well below the 2010-2022 average.  This is in contrast to June, which was above average.

The same is true for the JAXA AMSR2 non-melting pixel count, which was 4th lowest on record in July 2023.

Correlation of the July data with the September sea ice extent would give a prediction of 4.36 million km2 for the NSIDC September extent.  This is 0.45 million km2 lower than the prediction from June data.  It will be interesting to see if the strong surface melt in July counteracts the mediocre surface melt in June and May.

El Cid

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #232 on: August 03, 2023, 08:46:25 AM »
Steven, your second chart is quite an amazing forecasting tool actually

Glen Koehler

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Re: SMOS
« Reply #233 on: August 03, 2023, 06:06:21 PM »
Ditto.  I didn't realize SMOS non-melting and weighted cell count was such a good predictor.  Good detective work.
“What is at stake.... Everything, I would say." ~ Julienne Stroeve