What the Buoys are telling

[Peter Ellis]

If thermistors 23 and 24 are now in fresh water where ice used to be, yet again the bottom sounder doesn't reflect that fact.

Nope, they're in fresh water where salt water used to be. How I read that trace is as follows:

Jun 1st - bottom at ~thermistor 24, this is where temp goes below the -1.8 salt water below

Jun 15th - ditto. 

Jul 1st - 1st pulse of meltwater drainage, bottom is now at ~thermistor 23, with fresher water at
24

Jul 15th - fresh water has now mixed in with the sea. Hard to locate bottom of the ice as it's now in thermal equilibrium with the water below and bottom melt has started.  Could be at ~23 or ~22

Aug 1st - bottom is clearly at 22 as this is where the temperature goes above the -1.8 salt water below.

Aug 15th - new freshwater pulse.  Ice bottom still at 22, thermistors 23/24 now brought up to zero degrees by the pooled fresh water.  Ice at 21 and 22 is being warmed rapidly by the layer of meltwater.  When the meltwater mixes away, you'll have ice at ~zero or -1 degrees brought into contact with saline water at -1.8, and then you'll get some bottom melt due to the salt.

[ghoti]

I think the surface sounder data from 2012H demonstrates the melt pond formation / draining cycles. The surface height declines then plateaus then drops suddenly and begins to decline steadily again. Then that pattern repeats.

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/irid_data/2012H_thick.png

[Jim Hunt]

If thermistors 23 and 24 are now in fresh water where ice used to be, yet again the bottom sounder doesn't reflect that fact.

Nope, they're in fresh water where salt water used to be.

Which seems to make more sense, until perhaps you look at what happened during the preceding freeze. By December 1st 2012 the bottom sounder seemed happy that the ice bottom was 1.55 m below the ice surface, which looks to be at thermistor 19. According to the current sounder readings that should put the bottom of the ice at thermistor 24, whereas "bottom is clearly at 22"?

I'm still wondering about the bottom sounder picking up the interface between fresh and salty water. Ghoti's analysis looks to hit the nail on the head.

[Peter Ellis]

If thermistors 23 and 24 are now in fresh water where ice used to be, yet again the bottom sounder doesn't reflect that fact.

Nope, they're in fresh water where salt water used to be.

Which seems to make more sense, until perhaps you look at what happened during the preceding freeze. By December 1st 2012 the bottom sounder seemed happy that the ice bottom was 1.55 m below the ice surface, which looks to be at thermistor 19. According to the current sounder readings that should put the bottom of the ice at thermistor 24, whereas "bottom is clearly at 22"?

I'm still wondering about the bottom sounder picking up the interface between fresh and salty water.

Should be easy enough to spot - what did the bottom sounder say on Aug 1st, before the water drained through?  Has the bottom descended at all in the last few days, and does that correlate with the thermistor data?  I note there was an unusually low bottom sounder reading or two near the end of Jun, consistent with the thermistor data showing fresh water under the ice bottom on July 1st.

[ghoti]

Okay well maybe that bear had a bigger impact on NP webcam 1 than we initially thought...

[MOwens]

wow, that's after a 24 hour gap in webcam images... why no updates between?

[SteveMDFP]

I'm guessing the satellite up-link doesn't work too well when the webcam is lying on its side.  We are, perhaps, lucky to have gotten any image at all.

I think I see the tops of two ablation strips near the top of the image.

Do the Inuit have a word for "vandalism-by-polar-bear" ?

[Peter Ellis]

Do the Inuit have a word for "vandalism-by-polar-bear" ?

I think screaming and bleeding are cross-cultural. :-)

[jai mitchell]

Do the Inuit have a word for "vandalism-by-polar-bear" ?

I think screaming and bleeding are cross-cultural. :-)

 

[MOwens]

I've posted a blog article about the polar bear events (2 now) here: http://www.fairfaxclimatewatch.com/blog/2013/08/polar-bears-getting-antsy-ahead-of-arctic-cyclone.html thanks for all the input! ...what other surprises will there be from these buoys?

[pikaia]

Do the Inuit have a word for "vandalism-by-polar-bear" ?

They have 236 of them. 

[slow wing]

Made me laugh, Pikaia...   

[ivica]

Okay well maybe that bear had a bigger impact on NP webcam 1 than we initially thought...

Practicing snowball fight ? 

[Behn]

O-Buoy 8 has a visitor today.

[Jim Hunt]

O-Buoy 8 has a visitor today.

Quite a close one!

[Phil.]

Yeah, it's on the deck now.   

[oslo]

Not so sure about the image Phil. It could be color distortions in combination with cloud reflections, melt ponds, albedo loss, polar bear tracks, birds, ice cracks, fog, melted ice and a few other things.

I think it´s to early to draw any conclusions – the supposed boat might be just a mirrage, and appear to be close – in reality it could be miles and miles away.

I would say that even if it appears to be an image from a boat, it's just one chance in about a billion.

Throwing in wild assertions at this point seems to be jumping to conclusions.

Update: Sorry, forgot the  I'm a newbie.

[jai mitchell]

You know phil,  If we do a linear regression of boat activity up to this point there really isn't any indication that this anomalous reading is

a) robust

and

b) indicative of any future trend

[Phil.]

Ever since that image it's been traveling at 8m/s.
 

[Glenn Tamblyn]

8 m/s

Likely that the floe it is on has accidentally been snagged by a Russian Submarine as it passed underneath

[Phil.]

8 m/s

Likely that the floe it is on has accidentally been snagged by a Russian Submarine as it passed underneath

Yeah you can see it in the last few frames of this movie. 

[Glenn Tamblyn]

That confirms it. The Russians have A LOT of red paint left after the fall of the USSR

[Frivolousz21]

ITP 57 has either kicked the bucket or its showing an up-welling event

[Yuha]

Buoy 2013C has entered the Nares Strait and is moving south:

[Jim Hunt]

Buoy 2013C has entered the Nares Strait and is moving south

It actually did that a few days ago. See my daily track map.

[ghoti]

Great tracking Jim. I stopped watching for it to move so I missed it. I've been waiting for 2012M to go wandering too but it seems to be on the only ice hanging on this year.

[Jim Hunt]

Thanks ghoti,

I've been waiting for 2012M to go wandering too but it seems to be on the only ice hanging on this year.

Me too. The ice seems to be disintegrating virtually all around it, yet still it refuses to budge!

[Rubikscube]

Buoy 2013E, just North of farm, is reporting nearly -10 ºC today. That must be very cold for this time of the year, even at 85º north.

[Jim Hunt]

Buoy 2013E, just North of farm, is reporting nearly -10 ºC today.

Indeed it is, which makes me wonder once again exactly how much of the floe is left. Only the top 15 thermistors are still working, the bottom sounder gave up the ghost months ago, and the top sounder stopped reporting a few days ago too. The bit that is left certainly seems to be cooling down again now though:

[Jim Hunt]

Yet this morning, as 2013E continues to head away from the Fram Strait, the air above it is suddenly warmer than it has been all summer, and not far away:

[Espen]

How is status on the sensor that was stuck off Jøkelbugt, is it still there?

[Jim Hunt]

How is status on the sensor that was stuck off Jøkelbugt, is it still there?

Its thickness is much reduced, but however much I watch it the ice holding IMB 2012M still stubbornly refuses to move!

[Espen]

I guess that sensor must have been placed there from the beginning, bacause the remaining fast ice of Jøkelbugt is relatively old.

[Espen]

They probably installed the sensor when Oden was around September 22 2012:

[Peter Ellis]

They probably installed the sensor when Oden was around September 22 2012:

Given that the graph starts before the end of August, probably not.

[Espen]

Peter,

A quick shot again as normal , how about the sensor was started while Oden was at Svalbard, and brought from the vessel by helicopter to the fast ice island, did you ever consider that.
By the way there was no other traffic in that area during that period than Oden.
The only permission to enter that area was given to Oden only that season!

[Peter Ellis]

The buoy (2012M) was placed by the Norwegian Polar Institute on Aug 29th.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012M.htm
http://www.npolar.no/en/

Occam's razor would suggest they used their own research vessel, the RV Lance.
http://www.npolar.no/en/about-us/lance/

Although sailwx doesn't have tracking data for it between July and October 2012, it was certainly in the Fram Strait on Aug 25th, when it retrieved oBuoy 4.
http://www.o-buoy.org/?p=305

[Espen]

There is about a 50 % chance 2012M will start to move soon, the remaining fast ice of Jøkelbugt is about to split:

I have enhanced the crack with an image editor and made some arrows to show were the cracks are.

Please click on image to enlarge!

[Espen]

Any bets on what side the 2012M is on?

[Jim Hunt]

Any bets on what side the 2012M is on?

After quickly consulting arctic.io my money's on the northern section:

http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2013-08-16/8-N79.19-W14.87

[Espen]

Jim is that the one to the right?

[Jim Hunt]

The left in your August 20th images. The top in the arctic.io version. Perhaps "northwestern section" would be more accurate?

I'm assuming my eyeballs and arctic.io's lat/long centring are accurate, which is rather dubious in the former case!

[Yuha]

http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2013-08-16/8-N79.19-W14.87

Has it always been exactly at 79.19 N, 14.87 W?
If so, it has moved a bit southeast:

Current Buoy Data (08/20/2013):

Pos: 79.17 N, 14.64 W

Or is that just some random variation?
How accurate and constant are those coordinates?

[Jim Hunt]

Has it always been exactly at 79.19 N, 14.87 W?

No. I don't know how those lat/long numbers are arrived at, but it doesn't seem to be via GPS. The data come complete with a "quality" factor, which varies up to +/- 10 km.

[Anne]

O-buoy #10 is up and running.

[Espen]

2012M may be moving, the red dot is at least a bit enlarged:


http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012M.htm

[Jim Hunt]

2012M may be moving

I was wondering about that too Espen, although the current reported lat/long is still within previous (quite considerable!) "jitter".

[ghoti]

Yeah 2012M has "moved" more before this. More frustrating to me is that it stopped reporting ice thickness back around the time Espen first posted photos of large cracks splitting the remaining ice.

[Anne]

Slowly being revealed as NP webcam 1 lies face down in the slushy ice are what, thermistors? ISTR they are 10cm apart.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/npeo_cam1_20130826140709.jpg

[Laurent]

I don't see obuoy 10 on the overview !?
I guess it is the same as http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013F.htm ?