I was knee-jerk reacting to the large blobs of light-blue 2-2.5 meter thick ice in 2021 vs. 2020 in the Freegrass's HYCOM image. The areas of green for ice >2.5 meters were so small I didn't give them any attention. While there are still 2 more months of thickening, the sun is already peeking over the horizon at 75N for 4 hours a day. That won't happen at 83N until March 2.
Moving 8 degrees latitude to the south in the mid-latitudes makes a huge difference for solar radiation and spring-summer temperature regime, so I assume it has similar consequences in the Arctic.
The area that HYCOM shows with the bulk of the thickest ice on Feb 10, 2021 was largely melted out in Sept 15, 2020. So the shift of the center of mass away from north of Ellsemere-CAA towards a new center in the Beaufort Sea and closer to the Alaskan-Canadian coast and MacKenzie River outlet as shown in the Freegrass animation seems like it will create significant extra melting pressure.
What little there is of the thickest yellow-green ice also moved south. While ESS has more thick ice in the 2021 image, I don't think any of that will be around by August. Then again, I may be looking through doom-colored glasses. The ASI looks more vulnerable than ever to me, and I'm surprised the PIOMAS volume is holding up as well as it is. The 2020 vs. 2021 comparison shows the area around the North Pole losing substantial thickness, and as Freegrass noted, the retreat of the Atlantic front.
The location of the dark blue-black 1.25 meter thick ice in 2020 vs. 2021 is another example. It was scattered but roughly centered around 80N in 2020, but it's center of mass moved south into the ESS at around 76N in 2021. Maybe that just means that there will be tougher ice and thus slower melt out in the ESS in summer 2022. But my guess is that what is left of thicker ice being located in lower latitude/higher melt zones will result in one more step down the trend of less MYI (which once gone won't return), and another increase in the portion of annual late summer open water.
From
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3299.msg300601.html#msg300601