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oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #650 on: November 01, 2020, 12:02:58 AM »
Here is a possible new daily product -- hourly observational sea surface temperatures from a few Laptev buoys. One looks stuck in ice. A daily graph might be excessive effort but a simple table for the week might be within reach. It is right there as quick text at IABP but sometimes needs a few edits as the data is just the buoy calling Iridium, no one looking at it.
I will look into it, should be within my skill set, hoping to find the time (crazy week expected at work, but not giving up).

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #651 on: November 01, 2020, 05:07:48 AM »
This freezing season will be interesting also because of relatively unusual atmospheric set up is emerging combines with the unusual starting conditions in Siberian Arctic that is warm, moist and with open seas:

1) The last time that a strong La Niña event developed was in 2010-2011.

2) "One important aspect of La Niña is the effect it could have on the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. A La Niña event reduces wind shear, which is the change in winds between the surface and the upper levels of the atmosphere. This allows hurricanes to grow. The hurricane season ends on 30 November and so far there have been 27 named storms. This is more than the 25 predicted by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this year."

3) "There are likely to be more storms in Canada and the northern US, often leading to snowy conditions. Southern US states can be hit by drought at the same time."

4) "If a really strong La Niña event were to occur, research suggests that the UK and Northern Europe might experience a very wet winter."

I think the general global set up brings additional flavour how many depressions enter the Arctic if there are many more systems developing in the Atlantic storm season. The waves could also increase scattering of sea ice to seed its growth, but also stir ocean water to bring warm waters up, while also forming pack ice by clearing thinner and weaker sea ice through out this winter.

Worthwhile to glance this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54725970
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

binntho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #652 on: November 01, 2020, 05:16:54 AM »
<snip> The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification,
     My understanding is that Arctic amplification is primarily due to less ice Extent --> albedo decline --> more sunlight energy absorption by dark open water --> warmer water --> more ice melt --> less ice Extent.  With very little sunlight reaching the Arctic at this time of year, how is it that fall is "peak Arctic amplification"? 


This very question was a topic of several posts earlier this month. First a clarification: Arctic amplification is when atmospheric temperatures rise faster in the Arctic than elsewhere. And the missing link in your chain above is the atmosphere. If the energy from peak insolation just stayed in the oceans, to be released elsewhere at a later date, there would not be any Arctic amplification!

It is primarily now, during fall, that the extra energy gathered during peak insolation is released back into the atmosphere. The presence of large areas of open ocean in autmum, oceans that were  baked during peak insolation, and which are now releasing all the pent up energy into the atmsphere, that is indeed the ultimate cause of Arctic amplification.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #653 on: November 01, 2020, 05:30:31 AM »
I've no idea how the unprecedented current anomaly will play out but it is a good stand-in for a tipping point and imminent climate emergency -- and the experts are certainly taking it that way. It is definitely the biggest thing we've seen since the 2007 minimum and GAAC 2012.

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ... if so, climate chaos won't end with a bang but a brain-fog whimper.

I am so shocked by what has happened, that I am not doing anything! But in a way, I feel that, even that I should do something on this Forum, the strongest action should be focus on the general public, on people that are not aware of what it’s happening in the Arctic.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

nanning

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #654 on: November 01, 2020, 06:54:55 AM »
I have been lurking and not contributing for a while, and not expert enough to contribute to the cryosphere threads, but I have with much interest followed the past weeks here and especially the posts by A-Team; Glen Koehler; FishOutofWater; aslan; BornFromTheVoid and others as well.
I much appreciate the high quality discussions and science! Many thanks.   Please don't trip over the trolls
Apologies for not 'giving anything back'.
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

romett1

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #655 on: November 01, 2020, 10:51:01 AM »
ESS between Oct 31 and Oct 28 and 7-day outlook.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #656 on: November 01, 2020, 11:32:15 AM »
IABP buoys sea temperature, oct18-31
data attached as text. (760 is off map in the Kara) 761 data fits with yesterday's coastal refreeze shown on amsr2.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 12:59:10 PM by uniquorn »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #657 on: November 01, 2020, 12:31:19 PM »
7 day slow animation. I'll get one for the whole month up later too.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #658 on: November 01, 2020, 01:47:58 PM »
The Laptev (as defined by "CT map") spent 4 whole months in 2020 with area less than 150k km2 (as calculated by UH AMSR2).
Previous years did this for 3 months (2012*, 2014, 2018, 2019) or less. So a much longer ice free period over a huge region. At some point quantity becomes quality, as the sea has time to warm and mix (details above my pay grade unfortunately).

* 2012 AMSR2 is partial, SSMIS data eyeballed off chart

Looking at NSIDC data gives a similar picture. Note 2020 are has still not risen above all thresholds so final number of days could be a bit higher.
Thanks to Wipneus for the data files.

Click to enlarge images.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 02:01:53 PM by oren »

gandul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #659 on: November 01, 2020, 02:32:05 PM »
Suspiciously correlated with the extreme spring/summer in Siberia and Arctic summer of 2020

Paul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #660 on: November 01, 2020, 02:42:31 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.

Yep and the fact the Beaufort refreezing fairly quickly seemed quite an obvious prediction. Unfortunately we are seeing what will happen more and more in the future which is the early parts of refreeze will be very slow in regions which have very warm seas from the summer and the reality is, records are being broken in every month apart from September in recent years.

Of course an early Beaufort refreeze and a late Siberian refreeze does not mean the Beaufort will be slow to melt out next year and the Siberian side will melt out quickly again, alot will depend on the winter weather conditions and of course the summer weather patterns. If we get alot of high pressure this winter, the Siberian side could well be thicker than it was at the start of this year where the ice was thin and there was not much fast ice either.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #661 on: November 01, 2020, 02:44:44 PM »
Suspiciously correlated with the extreme spring/summer in Siberia and Arctic summer of 2020
The trade war was already underway during the extreme event of 2019, with COVID accelerating drops in aerosol production, there are probably other contributing factors as well, but I would imagine particulates are particularly important to the evolution of 2019->2020->2021.

Besides the drop in direct anthropogenic aerosols this year, we have also seen a corresponding MAJOR increase in organic aerosol production through the worst-ever fires on record in Siberia and elsewhere.

It is quite interesting that the minute we see our first major, I mean REALLY major, drop in aerosols since WWII (surpassing collapse of USSR), the natural mechanism for creating.... as much or even more (?) atmospheric soot is almost instantaneously activated due to the increase in ambient temperatures and subsequent ignition of many carbon-rich areas of the Arctic and sub-polar regions.

With PIOMAS likely at its worst-ever numbers for the date, this is also clearly playing out in the melt season. While the raw minimum was not as bad as 2012 in September, I would argue the overall state of the Arctic Ocean for this time of year is now a great deal worse than 2012 or any previous year.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #662 on: November 01, 2020, 02:48:53 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.

Yep and the fact the Beaufort refreezing fairly quickly seemed quite an obvious prediction. Unfortunately we are seeing what will happen more and more in the future which is the early parts of refreeze will be very slow in regions which have very warm seas from the summer and the reality is, records are being broken in every month apart from September in recent years.

Of course an early Beaufort refreeze and a late Siberian refreeze does not mean the Beaufort will be slow to melt out next year and the Siberian side will melt out quickly again, alot will depend on the winter weather conditions and of course the summer weather patterns. If we get alot of high pressure this winter, the Siberian side could well be thicker than it was at the start of this year where the ice was thin and there was not much fast ice either.
HYCOM shows that the heart of the surviving MYI adjacent to CAA is now drifting MIGHTILY towards and into Beaufort.



I do agree with your second point but it is interesting to note that Beaufort is now closed, and not only is it closed, it is now being smothered in some of the thickest MYI in the Arctic (not that that is saying much, but in this case it is actually 2M+ thick according to HYCOM).

PS: looping through HYCOM, I think a key point in the Laptev's evolution over the past year was actually missed. There was an event in early January 2020 that is plainly visible looping the thickness maps, and during this time, the ice detached from the shoreline. This edge retreated rapidly northward, with minimal refreezing in its wake, stabilizing only around early April.

At that point, the melt season basically began, and the leading edge of the actual ice that had a real chance to form was already wayyyyyyyy north of Siberia in both Laptev and Kara.

This was tied to a major low pressure event in the Kara visible on the ESRL charts for 1/1-1/5 2020. So I would wager that if we see another major event like this in the same location this year, at any point between now and.... February? The same or worse is going to happen in 2021.

Basically, this LP event in the Kara seemed to trigger a massive katabatic wind into the Laptev, which destabilized the melt front at a critical point in its formation. And that ultimately cascaded into the Laptev's current virtually ice-free state on November 1st.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 02:56:48 PM by bbr2315 »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #663 on: November 01, 2020, 03:27:48 PM »
Animation for all of October below

(big file ~11mb, click to play. Higher quality version on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1322907583611621376)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Memshin

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #664 on: November 01, 2020, 06:23:12 PM »
As I long time lurker, I often skipped this thread in the past. This year though, I have been impressed by the amount of science and analysis here, by A-Team and several others. While I don't understand everything A-Team posts, I enjoy trying. I do think I have learned a lot recently, especially about the nature of the feedbacks between open water and the atmosphere. So please, keep the science posts coming!
Also, don't mistake inability to contribute here with apathy. Action must come through politics - voting, encouraging others to vote, and pushing officials toward better policies afterwards.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #665 on: November 01, 2020, 06:46:55 PM »

I don't contribute often. Kids and work keep me very busy. That being said, there are very few days when I don't look at the numbers presented here, and read through the analysis.

On the basis of that, I gave an improptu "lunch and learn" presentation at work on the slow refreeze of the Siberian seas and what it might mean. it was based on the fabulous graphics and cutting edge insight that is so often the basis for reading this forum. I gave everybody credit as due, but the usernames did raise a few eyebrows!

I think it heightened awareness, and and a few peoples faces fell.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #666 on: November 01, 2020, 07:29:43 PM »
HYCOM shows that the heart of the surviving MYI adjacent to CAA is now drifting MIGHTILY towards and into Beaufort.

One of the many things I tend to forget is that the drifting MYI entering the Beaufort is drifting almost due south (strictly speaking, SSW).  Looking at the HYCOM image helped me self-correct on that, bbr.  The way most maps are set up, such as the Bremen map, give the visual impression that the ice is somehow mostly drifting to the west.  An optical illusion, I know, but how much does it subtly influence the thinking of some of us non-experts?  Or maybe just me ::)
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 07:43:12 PM by Pagophilus »

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #667 on: November 01, 2020, 08:50:48 PM »
thank you Pagophilus, thanks to your message I realized that I could see badly too,
almost to the south, it's true
it is still thick ice that will be less present in the end of spring to stabilize the pack, even if it is true that in recent years there is hardly any ice greater than 2 m anyway.
something intrigued me about the slow BfTv animation for the last 7 days
why this gain, then this sudden loss towards Zevernaya Zemlya, in the extreme NE kara?
the coastal ice has to do all the work and catch up with it.
because of winds?
and rest assured A-Team, I find everything I am learning here very interesting, I have learned more in about 2 months than since I was born about the Arctic, :) I just do not have the level to contribute brilliantly , but it is with enthusiasm that I come to the topic
Sorry, excuse my bad english

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #668 on: November 01, 2020, 10:02:27 PM »
thank you Pagophilus, thanks to your message I realized that I could see badly too,
almost to the south, it's true
it is still thick ice that will be less present in the end of spring to stabilize the pack, even if it is true that in recent years there is hardly any ice greater than 2 m anyway.
something intrigued me about the slow BfTv animation for the last 7 days
why this gain, then this sudden loss towards Zevernaya Zemlya, in the extreme NE kara?
the coastal ice has to do all the work and catch up with it.
because of winds?
and rest assured A-Team, I find everything I am learning here very interesting, I have learned more in about 2 months than since I was born about the Arctic, :) I just do not have the level to contribute brilliantly , but it is with enthusiasm that I come to the topic

Thank you, Positive retroaction -- I am glad I am not alone in my thought.  Your screen name and the spirit of your post go very well together BTW -- much appreciated in these anxious times (here in the US there is a lot of environmental and other concern with the election so near). 

I think your point about the ice boundary in the NE Kara is valuable -- I can only think it is due to ice motion (perhaps wind-driven) over the past few days.  Others will know more.  I hope it was not melting!  It will be interesting to see how the ice edge there advances in these coming days.  We know that the Laptev got really warm this summer, but so did the Kara...
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 10:08:16 PM by Pagophilus »

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #669 on: November 01, 2020, 10:04:11 PM »
I very highly value all of the data inputs & opinions/translations offered in this subsection of these forums. Where others read the paper every morning (or whatever equivalent these days), I read the Cryosphere subsection of ASIF.

If I didn't work basically 14 hour days, perhaps I'd contribute. However, rest assured that I exert my influence IRL towards combating AGW.

[sorry for being Off Topic]

Yuha

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #670 on: November 01, 2020, 10:04:48 PM »
Animation for all of October below

BFTV, thanks for these animations. They are really useful in understanding the progress of freeze (or melt during the summer).

A suggestion: Move the last frame, the one shoving the difference between the beginning and the end, as the first frame because the first frame is the one shown when the animation is off.

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #671 on: November 01, 2020, 11:30:56 PM »
Thank you, Positive retroaction -- I am glad I am not alone in my thought.  Your screen name and the spirit of your post go very well together BTW -- much appreciated in these anxious times (here in the US there is a lot of environmental and other concern with the election so near). 

I think your point about the ice boundary in the NE Kara is valuable -- I can only think it is due to ice motion (perhaps wind-driven) over the past few days.  Others will know more.  I hope it was not melting!  It will be interesting to see how the ice edge there advances in these coming days.  We know that the Laptev got really warm this summer, but so did the Kara...

Thank you Pagophilus! I admit I thought about my nickname for a while
And for HapHazard have courage for 14 h work by day, It's amazing, is not easy so have 💪🙂
Yes, I also hope that this new ice did not melt😢
I particularly followed the Kara anomaly, looking the temperatures in vize ilsand
of course without the ice that should already be there, the anomaly continues in an unprecedented and impressive way.
À link (maybe i saw this link on Asif I don't remember.. Sorry)
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069
Just incredible and is a perfect illustration of consequences of more free water on low arhmospheric temperatures, as talked before and without wishing to relaunch the debate on this subject, many other things must be observed
And many others to learn

October is +8,5 °C anomalie, the October Tnn is highter than Tmm October (Tnn-8 degres against - 10, 7degres)

On vize Island, on the center of kara sea,  September and August are the two months the more hot ever recorded
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 11:59:45 PM by Positive retroaction »
Sorry, excuse my bad english

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #672 on: November 02, 2020, 02:19:41 AM »
Indeed, more on-the-ground very warm October temperature charts from the same source:
* Kotelny Island in the New Siberian Islands (Laptev).
* Golomyanny Island in Severnaya Zemliya (Northern Kara).
* Hayes island (Franz Josef Land).

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2020
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20087&month=10&year=2020
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20046&month=10&year=2020

GeoffBeacon

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #673 on: November 02, 2020, 05:13:25 AM »
Is this relevant here?




From http://marineheatwaves.org
Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #674 on: November 02, 2020, 09:29:30 AM »
Some Laptev buoy charts based on IAPB data.

Click to enlarge.

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #675 on: November 02, 2020, 09:30:49 AM »
And some buoy charts from the Kara and ESS.


Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #676 on: November 02, 2020, 12:34:18 PM »
Thank you Oren and GeoffBeacon for this précisions and complémentaires data
Some more details and stats about vize
It helps to imagine how much heat is stocked in the kara sea
The first graph is the 2020 anomaly , based on the 1981-2010 norms
The second highlights the absolute day-to-day heat records that were broken in 2020 over August and September
In October, and November too, we enter a period where there is more variability, but it remains remarkable and I continue to follow it (today vize is about 13 degrees above the norm)
The annual anomaly is +4,29°C at 1 November
Data sources infoclimat.fr
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 12:45:16 PM by Positive retroaction »
Sorry, excuse my bad english

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #677 on: November 02, 2020, 12:44:10 PM »
And to realize the difference with recent years, here are the rankings of
The hottest minimum temperatures September (shows 2020)
The hottest monthly temperature of August
The hottest monthly temperatures of september
For the last 40 years
French docs again sorry
Data source www.infoclimat.fr
If I found time to do that, I do the same thing for Kotelny Island, Severnaya Zemliya and Hayes island
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 12:55:10 PM by Positive retroaction »
Sorry, excuse my bad english

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #678 on: November 02, 2020, 01:05:32 PM »
Some Laptev buoy charts based on IAPB data.
Click to enlarge.
Thanks Oren
IABP Buoy locations and last ~7day drift paths (static).

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #679 on: November 02, 2020, 01:45:18 PM »
Some Laptev buoy charts based on IAPB data.
Click to enlarge.
Thanks Oren
IABP Buoy locations and last ~7day drift paths (static).
With the graphics of Oren, this shows that the 643 is affected by the beginning of frost visible on the animations of BfTv
The 760 is also interesting, it shows that the kara center is still hot and far from freezing, that is also what Mercator oceans says.
Kara and the Isle of Vize have not finished capturing my attention
The vize anomaly is on its way to becoming the longest positive anomaly on record,(before 2016) which is significant in terms of a change in the behavior of the peripherics seas.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 02:02:10 PM by Positive retroaction »
Sorry, excuse my bad english

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #680 on: November 02, 2020, 02:37:45 PM »
Average extent for the Russian seas was just 20% of the average the last 10 years, and just 10% of the 80s average for October.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #681 on: November 02, 2020, 03:32:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #682 on: November 02, 2020, 05:09:03 PM »
And some buoy charts from the Kara and ESS.

Great work with this oren, thanks
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #683 on: November 02, 2020, 06:53:48 PM »
Using the rolling 5 day average, the Laptev Sea remains in an unprecedented situation into the beginning of November. The latest date that it's been at least 90% frozen in November 3rd, back in 2018.

Thomas Lavergne has posted another forecast animation that suggests a generally open Laptev sea will continue for at least another week. At the same time, open water starts pushing close to 85N yet again on the Atlantic side.

https://twitter.com/lavergnetho/status/1323274952053788672
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

romett1

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #684 on: November 02, 2020, 07:56:26 PM »
ESS between Oct 29 and Nov 1 and 7-day outlook.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #685 on: November 02, 2020, 10:18:30 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
edit: y scale was incorrect
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 11:35:37 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #686 on: November 02, 2020, 11:32:30 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
edit: y scale was incorrect
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2 image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
Thank you for your wonderful plots. They basically show an unprecedented very late refreeze finally ensuing.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #687 on: November 02, 2020, 11:54:29 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
edit: y scale was incorrect
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2 image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
Thank you for your wonderful plots. They basically show an unprecedented very late refreeze finally ensuing.
Thank you for your basic interpretation.

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #688 on: November 03, 2020, 06:07:02 AM »
BornFromTheVoid, many thanks for your great graphs.
Information; axes; legend; readability; colourchoices; map inset; context; consequence.. my compliments. (I'm not an expert)
Uniquorn, the way you're going you'll be a master soon imo.
Postive retroaction, thanks, that list of extremes made me stop to think.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #689 on: November 03, 2020, 07:23:40 AM »
October 27 - November 2.

2019.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #690 on: November 03, 2020, 11:56:16 AM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.

You can see clearly how this year's late refreeze is turning out to be later and stonger than in 2007, 2012 and 2019. You can also see there was no late refreeze in 2016.
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #691 on: November 03, 2020, 01:16:55 PM »
A slightly different perspective, using Charctic interactive graph, all years since 1979, with an eye also on the latest Aluminium animation above.
Certainly, the refreeze is now occurring very quickly, but this year's refreeze is still way out there in terms of its remarkable behavior.  And the high rate of refreeze will only continue, IMO, if the Laptev and Kara, which got very warm this summer, are obliging and quickly ice over.  Otherwise, the rate may slacken soon and the 2020 plot may begin to look a bit more like that of 2016.  Interesting days ahead (for the ice and for the world).
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ 
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 01:29:45 PM by Pagophilus »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #692 on: November 03, 2020, 02:25:40 PM »
Latest single day NSIDC extent increase is the largest on record, at +391k, giving a 5 day total of 1.246 million km2 (2nd largest 5 day total, so far...).
No longer the lowest on record now, 44k above 2016 (this varies a little depending on day of the year or date).
Curious to see how long this run of massive increases can continue. Strong southerly winds around Svalbard and Franz Jospeh Land, on and off over the next week, could start sending the ice edge close to 85N once more.
Lots to watch!

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #693 on: November 03, 2020, 02:28:56 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.

You can see clearly how this year's late refreeze is turning out to be later and stonger than in 2007, 2012 and 2019. You can also see there was no late refreeze in 2016.

I suspect that the stronger refreeze is due mainly to the water surface temperature falling to the freezing range much later in the year, when the air temperature is much colder.  This will facilitate freezing over a much larger area than when the water temperature reaches freezing earlier in the year. 

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #694 on: November 03, 2020, 02:46:15 PM »
Yes and as we see in this graphs of NSIDC,
The strong rebound that is occurring is expected in the case of a year with a very low September minimum , especially with the delay we took in the first month of the frost season.
The years with a very low September minimum are years with a period of strong increase in extent and we already knew this, with the exception of 2016 because it had a good start to the frost season.
Years with a less extreme September minimum, in general, do not have the rebound, except a bad freeze season starting
It makes sense, but maybe it should be remembered
Of course this should be superimposed on the synoptic, but it is an general observation that can be made

What I am saying is trite, but it may be useful to remember that, for people who are hearing from the arctic just then, or who will only hear about this year's good rebound.
The rebound we're seeing is good new, but this is not a sign of good arctic health,  it's just an expected feature of a year with such a low minimum and a poor start to the frost season.
Sorry, excuse my bad english

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #695 on: November 03, 2020, 03:11:55 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.

You can see clearly how this year's late refreeze is turning out to be later and stonger than in 2007, 2012 and 2019. You can also see there was no late refreeze in 2016.

I suspect that the stronger refreeze is due mainly to the water surface temperature falling to the freezing range much later in the year, when the air temperature is much colder.  This will facilitate freezing over a much larger area than when the water temperature reaches freezing earlier in the year.

Nope, definitely the Mpemba effect  ::)
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #696 on: November 03, 2020, 04:17:58 PM »
A couple of IABP buoys in the right place in the ESS to track sea temperature during refreeze.
SVP-B, UPTEMPO and one undocumented.
Quote
UPTEMPO   Upper Temperature of the Polar Oceans
Data attached as txt file.
Over 50hrs at -0.16C suggests there may be a problem with 174639
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 05:06:08 PM by uniquorn »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #697 on: November 03, 2020, 04:39:22 PM »
Awesome uniquorn! Really cool watching the temps as the buoys move.

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #698 on: November 03, 2020, 06:49:52 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.

You can see clearly how this year's late refreeze is turning out to be later and stonger than in 2007, 2012 and 2019. You can also see there was no late refreeze in 2016.

I suspect that the stronger refreeze is due mainly to the water surface temperature falling to the freezing range much later in the year, when the air temperature is much colder.  This will facilitate freezing over a much larger area than when the water temperature reaches freezing earlier in the year.

Nope, definitely the Mpemba effect  ::)

If it was the Mpemba effect, would not the water have frozen sooner, rather than later, as your graph depicts?

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #699 on: November 03, 2020, 07:08:45 PM »
Slowly working my way through retroactively visualising all the buoys in one go (last 21 days of data)

Some of these sensors are in air and some are not, still need to separate that out.

I also need to generate bounding longitudes for each of the seas to better separate the data as right now it is far too busy- there are 101 currently reporting buoys north of 70N
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic