To be clear, because I am not sure I have state explicitly my point. I wanted to emphasize that an anomaly is not only stated by its absolute value. Deviation from normal is also a function of the normal spread. In winter in Arctic, an anomaly of 2-3°C is almost nothing while such an anomaly in the deep tropics could mean breaking a heat record. I did though that the heat could be more extreme than in 2016 for the Barents, but it was not fully the case. Heat is still extreme with some record (especially the 9.2°C reading of the Svalbard airport), but overall we are still within the boundary of the known climatology for this region in November. To the difference with August and September when anomalies expressed in absolute values were lower but were also way outside anything known.
P.S. : Or to put it more bluntly, in August and September, the red line was continuously way above the red dot at the top of the chart...
Totally agree
We have just entered a period of the year when the variability is very high
Even if we are high in 2020, we stay in the known area, but permanently high
It is the continuity of the positive anomaly that concerns me
And its average magnitude, over the entire period, from July to now without stopping
In July, August and September, the variability is very low, but here we have flown above old records
Two months in a row of all-time highs and so far above variability is like a new climate state
I think if there is a tipping point in the arctic, kara will really be one of the seas that gives the imminent signs of this
I don t have the competence for this, but would anyone be interested in performing these things?
Lately I have seen that some people here are really good at representing reality on a graph, so that we can understand and see it.
So I put 2 links, where you will find all the weather reports in vize since 945-11-01
1950_2020-11-09
https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ftp/russia_daily/Russia_stations/20069.txtThe last 50 days
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsodres?lang=en&mode=0&state=Russ&ind=20069&ord=REV&ano=2020&mes=11&day=17&ndays=50Maybe other links are better, sorry I m new for data treatment
But probably is profitable to put this realty on image, I wanted to do that since some weeks but I not succeed
I also post this
Average temperatures on August on vize Island
And average temperatures on September on vize Island
Data sources
www.infoclimat.fr