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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #100 on: September 26, 2020, 03:24:56 PM »
NSIDC Central Arctic Sea ice extent in 2020 is a record breaker for 40 days in a row, and not by a small amount.

What happens next? Eventually a very fast refreeze?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #101 on: September 26, 2020, 04:20:36 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
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NotaDenier

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #102 on: September 26, 2020, 04:22:42 PM »
NSIDC Central Arctic Sea ice extent in 2020 is a record breaker for 40 days in a row, and not by a small amount.

What happens next? Eventually a very fast refreeze?

Prediction a fast refreeze as the Beaufort Donut fills in and then a slow refreeze due to warm seas and lack of ice for new ice to form on.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #103 on: September 26, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »
Trend in the maximum extent minus the minimum extent.
Inset map of the 2020 max and min extent too.
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #104 on: September 26, 2020, 07:19:23 PM »
   One of your best graphics BTV, and that's saying something.

Rodius

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #105 on: September 27, 2020, 04:09:12 AM »
That graph shows that 2007 is a significant year yet again. The arctic hasn't gone back to pre 2007 since.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #106 on: September 27, 2020, 04:52:39 AM »
  BTV - Could you do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 10:22:57 PM by Glen Koehler »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #107 on: September 27, 2020, 11:59:28 AM »
Todays images and animation


I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #108 on: September 27, 2020, 12:01:10 PM »
  BTV - Could do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.

I think this is what you're after.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #109 on: September 27, 2020, 03:26:43 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #110 on: September 27, 2020, 05:35:46 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I watch your animations daily. one striking characteristic is the strong lows (cyclonic storms) that keep showong up in the ocean south of Alaska. is this normal?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #111 on: September 27, 2020, 08:28:23 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I watch your animations daily. one striking characteristic is the strong lows (cyclonic storms) that keep showong up in the ocean south of Alaska. is this normal?
Someone will surely correct me if I'm wrong about this, but my guess is that the northern Pacific -  which is the largest continuous body of water in the Northern hemisphere - can be compared to the storms circulating around Antarctica. It's the Ferrel cell?

I'm surprised not more of these storms penetrate the arctic.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 08:36:14 PM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #112 on: September 27, 2020, 10:25:54 PM »
  BTV - Could do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.
I think this is what you're after.
      Thanks BFTV, uber Nice!  That is even more informative than I expected.  I was looking to see a visual representation of the strong melt year from Sept 2006 to Sept 2007 - which the chart definitely demonstrates.  But it shows a lot more than that.  One bonus is seeing just how dynamic Arctic sea ice change is from year to year.

      The chart highlights some other major change years: 1990, 1993, and of course our favorite 2012.  On the other side of the coin, it shows 2013 as a large rebound year.

      Going out on a limb, I think the chart reflects the fact that 2007 was a "deep" melt year  ::) , whereas 2012 was kind of a superficial melt year in that much of the melt was due to the release of subsurface ocean heat by the GAC 2012 that caused late summer melt, but the loss of that heat also contributed to the large rebound in 2013. 

      Pushing my ignorance one more step, I think that the chart shows that 2019, while a 2nd place (at the time) finisher to 2012, was more a "deep" melt year, i.e. the real deal, not some flash in the pan caused by a temporary cyclone stirring up the waters. 

      And finally, I expect that 2020 was another "deep" melt year.  Yes the July cyclone in the Beaufort was a significant nudge, but it was not the driving factor behind the total melt, and did not release that heat bomb that lies at depth in the Beaufort Sea.  When that heat eventually is released, it will be an ice Armageddon -- for a while at least.  Such an event would likely be followed by a rebound year just like 2013 followed 2012.  Then again, with the ASI getting weaker from year to year, such a body blow could push it over the edge into a new equlibrium from which it cannot recover even with relatively mild melt weather in the subsequent year(s).
     
      If we look at each year as the first of a two-year pair to factor in the reboud effect, then 2007 really stands out as not only the biggest melt year, but a big melt year without a recovery the following year.  While 2019 was an intermediate melt year, it is one of only three (the others being 1997-1998, and 2007-2008) with two melt years in succession.  Both members of the 2019-2020 pair were stronger than the 1997-1998 pair.  (Worth noting that 97-98 was strong El Nino.  As was 2015-2016, which had back to back loss years, but much weaker.)

      I suspct that in addtion to the summer weather, the strong 2020 melt in the Laptev (and possibly ESS and Kara as well) this year may reflect the weakening of the thermocline due to Atlantification. If so, it is likely to be a persistent feature from now on, not a single year anomaly.

      And ominously, what drove the damage to the CAA-Greenland-North Pole triangle this year, including the north Greenland megacrack?  If it was purely a weather issue (which seems very possible) then it is less likely recur next year, though with continued warming such a weather scenario (or one with similar impact) also becomes increasing likely.  If the melting in the triangle was due to ocean forces, such as suspected for the Laptev, then it would be more likely to be a regular feature going forward.  I can't even guess at that question.  But the assault on the Atlantic-side ice edge during August and September 2020 has me suspecting that Atlantification contributed at least partically to the 2020 triangle melt.

      All just guesswork.  Interested in hearing what other folks think.  I just wish this very interesting intellecual exercise was about something other than the disruption of the planetary climate we all depend on.  I feel guilty enjoying watching the process unfold (and not the only one with those feelings I'm sure).  I tell myself it is important to stay informed.  Which is true.  But a part of me just likes watching math unfold regardless of the horrendous implications.

     I don't think the public really gets it that our entire civilization is built with reliance upon expectation of climatic norms for both levels and variaiblity around those norms, and upon dependable weather patterns like monsoons and other systems that drive agriculture and other endeavors.  I hope that ASIF, besides being fun to watch and enjoyable as my first and only on-line community, serves a purpose at raising awarenss.  When you vote, just remember: Creep Instability
« Last Edit: September 28, 2020, 12:11:06 AM by Glen Koehler »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #113 on: September 28, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I watch your animations daily. one striking characteristic is the strong lows (cyclonic storms) that keep showong up in the ocean south of Alaska. is this normal?
Someone will surely correct me if I'm wrong about this, but my guess is that the northern Pacific -  which is the largest continuous body of water in the Northern hemisphere - can be compared to the storms circulating around Antarctica. It's the Ferrel cell?

I'm surprised not more of these storms penetrate the arctic.
I believe the polar vortices around each pole are stronger in winter.  Those vortices may help inhibit the intrusion of storms.  I leave it to the experts here to comment -- my understanding is just general and perhaps too simple.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #114 on: September 28, 2020, 12:14:32 AM »
  BTV - Could do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.
I think this is what you're after.
Thanks again BFTV.  Your legend grows.  Might we expect the future difference between successive minima to be, in general, smaller than in the past because much of the 'easy ice' is now being routinely melted out, leaving mostly just the stubborn 'CAB core' on the N.American side?  Or will the whole system maybe oscillate wildly as it approaches a 'BOE threshold'?

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #115 on: September 28, 2020, 02:42:18 AM »
While 2019 was an intermediate melt year, it is one of only three (the others being 1997-1998, and 2007-2008) with two melt years in succession.
Looking again at BFTV's excellent chart, I wonder - wasn't 2011 lower than 2010? I always recall that 2012 was the culmination of 3 strong melting seasons in a row.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #116 on: September 28, 2020, 03:47:51 AM »
  BTV - Could do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.
I think this is what you're after.
...   On the other side of the coin, it shows 2013 as a large rebound year.

      Going out on a limb, I think the chart reflects the fact that 2007 was a "deep" melt year  ::) , whereas 2012 was kind of a superficial melt year in that much of the melt was due to the release of subsurface ocean heat by the GAC 2012 that caused late summer melt, but the loss of that heat also contributed to the large rebound in 2013.
 
...  I just wish this very interesting intellectual exercise was about something other than the disruption of the planetary climate we all depend on.  I feel guilty enjoying watching the process unfold (and not the only one with those feelings I'm sure).  I tell myself it is important to stay informed.  Which is true.  But a part of me just likes watching math unfold regardless of the horrendous implications. 

Glen, thanks for your post -- it helped me see the possible range of speculation, and your comment above on 2012 really opened my eyes to what might be happening. 

And the implications are ominous and terrible, but there is something in our nature that keeps us watching tragic plays, grim television series and disaster movies.  So, we are not alone in this type of fascination -- just human after all...


Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #117 on: September 28, 2020, 04:21:58 AM »
I hope that ASIF, besides being fun to watch and enjoyable as my first and only on-line community, serves a purpose at raising awareness. 

One last post, and I will stop, oren... 

Hey Glen,
I can assure you that, at least in my case, this site does a great deal to raise my awareness, understanding and concern about what is happening in the Arctic and globally.  And, because my work involves education, I then pass that knowledge and motivation on to many others, and I can do that with the authenticity that comes from what I gain here.  I suspect I am far from alone in this respect.  So, it may even be worth while putting up with me and all my posts!  ;)  This is my first and only on-line community as well.  My thanks to all who contribute so productively here.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #118 on: September 28, 2020, 07:09:48 AM »
September 23-27.

2019.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #119 on: September 28, 2020, 10:34:47 AM »
Today's images and animation.
Some big losses around the Chukchi region the last 2 days with southerlies dominating here. This looks likely to continue for the coming week, so definitely an area worth watching.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #120 on: September 28, 2020, 03:20:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #121 on: September 28, 2020, 04:14:58 PM »
BFTV - I know I have said this before but these three images and the one GIF are absolutely wonderful. Not sure what you could add that would provide anymore insight.

Don't know how long it takes you to put these together but thank you.

Combined with the temperature and wind animations provided by Freegrass makes this thread a delight to visit.

It would be really nice if these strong southerlies coming off of Siberia would go away.

NeilT

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #122 on: September 28, 2020, 11:31:29 PM »
Looking again at BFTV's excellent chart, I wonder - wasn't 2011 lower than 2010? I always recall that 2012 was the culmination of 3 strong melting seasons in a row.

10,11 and 12 were a strong melt years, much to some surprise as 10-11 and 11-12 were strong and moderate La Nina years respectively.  2012, early on, was not really considered anything special until it just kept on melting and then the storms took over at the end of the season and totally decimated the ice.

From Neven's update on July 20th, 2012, It shouldn't but it does.

Quote
I'm basically going to say the same thing as I did in the last ASI update: Weather patterns haven't been conducive to sea ice decrease, trend lines on graphs should be stalling, but they don't. As I've shown in yesterday's blog post comparing this year's weather patterns in June and July with previous record years, the decrease should have slowed down significantly like it did in 2010 and 2011, but it didn't. The 2012 SIE trend line shouldn't follow 2007 so closely, but it does. The 2012 SIA trend line shouldn't lead, but it does.

Then later on, Neven's Open thread on 9th Sept 2012,

Quote
Can we start speculating about the minimum yet? I know trend lines are still dropping, and after this crazy melting season, I don't feel able or willing to make any pronouncement on when it will stop. In 2010 and 2011 the weather forecast maps helped me to announce the minimum a few days in advance, but those maps aren't any help to me this year. All I'm seeing for the coming five days is a persistent high over the Siberian coast and a huge low developing near Iceland, reaching all the way to Scandinavia and the UK. Normally this would mean slowdown for ice decline or even minimum, but this melting season isn't normal.

It is easy to forget just how exceptional 2012 was.

2005,06 and 07 were also strong melting years.  2005 broke all sorts of records including massive media time due to new islands being reported "found" due to the melt back of the ice.

2006 was anomalous.  It was an incredibly warm year that suddenly went cool in August and killed any chance of a new record.  As can bee seen in the Arctic Sea Ice News Fall 2006

it is quite amusing to see 2005 recorded as a "record low".



This was also the year of the Unusual Polynya, if you are interested.

Right now I'm just sitting back and watching how the next few years play out.  Incredibly thin ice, incredibly low volume, increasingly higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Eventually something has to give and the only thing I can see is the impending BOE.  It is just a matter of when.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #123 on: September 28, 2020, 11:34:00 PM »
Thanks... Admittedly my question was simpler - was there an error in BFTV's min-to-min extent change chart?

gandul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #124 on: September 29, 2020, 12:03:05 AM »
@NeilT thanks for bringing back those threads very early post 2012. Checking out 2013 Forum’s threads is another interesting exercise, to read the hyperbolic doom scenarios the usual apocalypse guys were writing at the time. Eight years of sobering melting seasons, including 2020, quite on the ‘boring’ downhill long-term trend, has quieted down the hyperbolic speeches considerably.


BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #125 on: September 29, 2020, 10:53:02 AM »
Oren is correct, my chart was wrong. Need to check the rows the calculations are being performed on! The previous chart was the difference in the max to min from year to year, not the min to min.

Here's the actual minimum to minimum difference version (fingers crossed!)
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #126 on: September 29, 2020, 10:56:55 AM »
And the latest images and animation.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #127 on: September 29, 2020, 12:51:53 PM »
And the latest images and animation.

BFTV, the last frame in the final figure (the gif), shows the total change over the period- that is itself a nice visualisation and could be a stand-alone
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #128 on: September 29, 2020, 01:42:21 PM »
And the latest images and animation.

BFTV, the last frame in the final figure (the gif), shows the total change over the period- that is itself a nice visualisation and could be a stand-alone

Here ya go
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #129 on: September 29, 2020, 01:42:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #130 on: September 29, 2020, 05:21:30 PM »
Observations from Freegrass animation...

In 5 days, there are 3 strong lows that visit the ocean south of Alaska.

Fram export should run in reverse.

The migration/growth of ice on the Atlantic side will continue. I hope this will be freezing ice and not just an expansion of SIE and a reduction in compactness.

Southerlies off Siberia continue.


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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #131 on: September 29, 2020, 05:58:45 PM »
Thanks BFTV.

SH, if it is a reduction in compression/compaction then the leads between the floes will almost certainly be freezing over during the process at those projected temps
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #132 on: September 29, 2020, 07:28:11 PM »
Thanks BFTV.

SH, if it is a reduction in compression/compaction then the leads between the floes will almost certainly be freezing over during the process at those projected temps

Thank you. That was what I was asking.

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #133 on: September 30, 2020, 03:35:24 AM »
For the last two years, as the first week in October arrived, ice extent growth showed a marked slackening for a week or two.  This also happened in 2016.  Very small sample, I know, but it could be interesting to see if this also happens this year.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #134 on: September 30, 2020, 06:41:29 AM »
September 25-29.

2019.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #135 on: September 30, 2020, 07:49:00 AM »
September 25-29.

2019.
The ice looks like a big balloon. Push it on one side, and the other side bulges out...
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #136 on: September 30, 2020, 11:53:39 AM »
Images and animation for today.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #137 on: September 30, 2020, 01:36:51 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #138 on: September 30, 2020, 10:43:24 PM »
That GIF is clearly showing extensive melt occurring on the ice nearest the ESS.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #139 on: October 01, 2020, 11:34:14 AM »
The slow changes continue, and the Chukchi bite keeps growing
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #140 on: October 01, 2020, 12:37:46 PM »
Here's the sea ice concentration animation for all of September. The dynamical movements are pretty interesting to watch.
There'll be a larger, better quality version going up on my twitter page in about 2.5 hours

(Large animation, ~11mb. Click to Play)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #141 on: October 01, 2020, 12:39:58 PM »
Here's the sea ice concentration animation for all of September. The dynamical movements are pretty interesting to watch.
There'll be a larger, better quality version going up on my twitter page in about 2.5 hours

(Large animation, ~11mb. Click to Play)

Really was touch-and-go for the Beaufort scorpion tail there, a few more days and it might have melted out
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #142 on: October 01, 2020, 01:48:45 PM »
Indeed. Interestingly, the tail seems to be still melting a bit.


Thanks for the animations BFTV.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #143 on: October 01, 2020, 02:34:45 PM »
Looks like most of the increase in the NSIDC extent is false ice towards the south east of Greenland, near Iceland.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #144 on: October 01, 2020, 03:21:45 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

High pressure brings Low temperatures...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #145 on: October 01, 2020, 04:01:54 PM »
Looking at the Jaxa extent graph trends on the data page posted by Gero, the slow start for 2020 is quite similar to the slow start for 2016. (albeit 2016 started from a slightly higher base).

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #146 on: October 01, 2020, 04:36:51 PM »
Up to sep29 this year, 2012 still defines the worst case scenario for Wipneus' CAB

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #147 on: October 01, 2020, 09:56:47 PM »
Much of the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev are still above freezing.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #148 on: October 01, 2020, 10:05:02 PM »
Why does this orientation of the current state of Arctic Ice look so much scarier to me?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #149 on: October 01, 2020, 10:21:52 PM »
It makes me think all that ice is going to 'fall off' (break loose from Greenland/CAA/Alaska) and hit me on the head (as an icicle hanging from an eave might [or worse - refrozen half melted snow that partially slipped over the eave's edge before temporarily refreezing in place] ). 

With Greenland (or Canada) at the bottom, all that landmass will hold the ice up forever...
 :)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.