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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #400 on: October 19, 2020, 05:12:39 PM »
Zach Labe pointed out on twitter that the 5 day mean NSIDC extent has reached the largest negative anomaly on record (relative to 1981-2010).

I had a check, and this is true for the daily data too. In fact, each of the last 5 days have set a new record large -ve anomaly.

The previous record was 3.068 million km2, on October 8th 2012.
The last 5 days, October 14th to 18th, are:
-3.088
-3.128
-3.167
-3.209
-3.275



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #401 on: October 19, 2020, 05:54:12 PM »
Does an increase in SST after a storm suggest that warm Atlantic or Pacific waters have surfaced due to waves mixing the surface layer with deeper waters? If this is true, could continued high winds and 3 to 5 meter waves keep this mixing going and delay freeze even further?

El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #402 on: October 19, 2020, 06:27:19 PM »
Does an increase in SST after a storm suggest that warm Atlantic or Pacific waters have surfaced due to waves mixing the surface layer with deeper waters? If this is true, could continued high winds and 3 to 5 meter waves keep this mixing going and delay freeze even further?

Great question. I asked the same about 3 days ago upthread.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #403 on: October 19, 2020, 06:54:03 PM »
Does an increase in SST after a storm suggest that warm Atlantic or Pacific waters have surfaced due to waves mixing the surface layer with deeper waters? If this is true, could continued high winds and 3 to 5 meter waves keep this mixing going and delay freeze even further?

Great question. I asked the same about 3 days ago upthread.
I keep thinking about the energy needed to melt ice cubes would heat the same amount of water to 80°C. So how much energy went into the ocean this summer with that GAAC and lots of open ocean?

And how long will it take to cool it all down again? I guess we're finding out now...
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #404 on: October 19, 2020, 11:55:12 PM »
For what is worth (not much, admittedly), but the surface analysis of GFS (the GDAS) did not show a significant drop for SST during the week-end. <>
Raw surface temperatures and drift from iabp buoys over the last 5 days. Drift speed is the coloured path with scale at top left, temperature as text label. (Buoys in ice should be reporting ice surface temperatures. NA means they do not report surface temperature, some may be faulty.)
Click twice for full res. Large file.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 12:03:37 AM by uniquorn »

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #405 on: October 20, 2020, 12:17:58 AM »
Quote
Effect of storms and high winds on freeze open water?
Whatever the actual effects, we are quite limited by available observables in terms of validation. As with the 2012 GAAC controversy, there is no control on what would have happened without the GAAC.

Consequently even if we had seen SST change here, attribution to the storm is problematic. Here the highest winds and swells did not hit the ice pack head on which has been required for major damage in the past. OsiSaf is showing a distinct anti-cyclonic rotation but has no motion coverage of open water (but see CMEMS).

The first image below maps out where it is currently cold enough to bring surface sea water to -1.8ºC. This would have to persist a very long time without wind to actually freeze anything. Here GFS nullschool doesn't offer SST contouring so it has to be done from a screenshot with wind turned off in Gimp GMIC, then labelled multiple times with green circle site data. A lot of the 'upper half' of the Arctic Ocean is just not cold enough yet.

The slide show looks at entrained Pacific Ocean moisture intrusion via total cloud water (TCW) which is determinable from satellite. The height of the cloud deck above the water surface is not available but presumably low; this property had to be measured during the Mosaic expedition.

This event brought in a gale force jet, matching the maximum the Polarstern encountered during its year. Moist low clouds can completely offset blackbody cooling of the surface but not evaporative, convective, conductive or mixing effects which potentially could be much larger.

Following moist intrusions into the Arctic using SHEBA observations in a Lagrangian perspective
S. Mubashshir Ali  Felix Pithan  19 June 2020
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3859 free full

"Warm and moist air masses are transported into the Arctic from lower latitudes throughout the year. Especially in winter, such moist intrusions (MIs) can trigger cloud formation and surface warming. While a typical cloudy state of the Arctic winter boundary layer has been linked to the advection of moist air masses, direct observations of the transformation from moist midlatitude to dry Arctic air are lacking.

Moist intrusions are usually triggered by an anticyclonic blocking‐like feature to the east and a low‐pressure system to the west and also linked to Rossby wave‐breaking events (Liu and Barnes, 2015). MIs cause strong downward long‐wave radiation due to a high localised concentration of water vapor which can lead to anomalous surface warming over land or sea ice."
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 12:27:17 AM by A-Team »

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #406 on: October 20, 2020, 12:56:15 AM »
Where is the Emergency!


Pavel

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #407 on: October 20, 2020, 06:42:23 AM »
Too much heat stored. May, July, August were the warmest on record north of 70 latitude, June was the 2nd warmest, September the 3d warmest. We remember the GAAC and early ice retreat. It was really warm and not the all heat was spent to melt ice like in 2012 but rather stored in the ocean. If we compare with the 2016 autumn precondition now it looks much worse so the Arctic will have to dodge a cannonball once again in the melt season

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #408 on: October 20, 2020, 08:37:15 AM »
October 15-19.

2019.

Paddy

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #409 on: October 20, 2020, 09:59:39 AM »
The 3-day forecast is finally going below freezing on the Russian side of the Arctic, although still far above normal: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=arc-lea&nday=3-day


Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #410 on: October 20, 2020, 12:04:12 PM »
also looking at the maximum temperatures over 5 days, maybe the pack ice will finally slowly start to spread first towards the new siberian islands, between kara and laptev
The maximum températures over 5 dans and SST for octobre 29 (forecast)
Sorry, excuse my bad english

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #411 on: October 20, 2020, 01:00:04 PM »
October 15-19.

2019.
Last year the Northeast Passage was closing, and ice was forming along the Siberian coast.
That ain't happening yet this year, so the shipping industry must be very happy right now...
Now let's pray...

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gandul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #412 on: October 20, 2020, 01:39:44 PM »
October 15-19.

2019.

I see some hints of ice forming from the ESS/Laptev coast. Ice reaching from the coast while the ice edge is as far away as in September would be quite an spectacle.


Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #413 on: October 20, 2020, 01:45:26 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

The first really cold air is coming from Greenland...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #414 on: October 20, 2020, 01:45:57 PM »
Yes
They probably are happy (sorry french Doc)
Sorry, excuse my bad english

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #415 on: October 20, 2020, 02:07:56 PM »

The first really cold air is coming from Greenland...

While another strong low enters the Laptev.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #416 on: October 20, 2020, 02:20:05 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3m5uQpn  oct15-20 with AWI AMSR2 v103 inset. The north greenland gap still recovering from the summer, sea ice still lifting off Ellesmere Island. Some Nares export.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #417 on: October 20, 2020, 02:27:56 PM »

The first really cold air is coming from Greenland...

While another strong low enters the Laptev.
Yep... I looks like that's another burp from the jetstream, which still seems to be wanting to take a shortcut...
Now let's pray...

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Positive retroaction

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #418 on: October 20, 2020, 03:22:42 PM »
Definitively, What we see in ESS laptev/kara is totaly new, reminds me example of the giant, global warming signs are exploding and will have consequences more and more
Sorry, excuse my bad english

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #419 on: October 20, 2020, 05:03:39 PM »
Definitively, What we see in ESS laptev/kara is totaly new, reminds me example of the giant, global warming signs are exploding and will have consequences more and more
The wider context is also troubling.  NOAA's report on this past September recently came out.

"Averaged as a whole, the September 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature was the highest for September in the 141-year record at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F)."

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202009

Paul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #420 on: October 20, 2020, 05:57:57 PM »
The 3-day forecast is finally going below freezing on the Russian side of the Arctic, although still far above normal: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=arc-lea&nday=3-day

Sometimes we have to be careful looking at temperature maps in areas of open water as the models will always forecast higher temperatures whilst that open water is there. As far as I understand it, if ice did indeed grow in some of that open water area, the models will show slightly colder temperatures than first predicted. As it happens though, it seems difficult at this point too see much refreeze from the main pack but hopefully we will see more evidence of coastal ice forming with winds blowing in from the landmasses.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #421 on: October 20, 2020, 07:06:46 PM »
Here's the chart showing the variations in the distance from ice edge/open water to the N. Pole for all the daily extent minima from 1979 to 2020 (measured every 5 degrees).
The trends largely resembles that of other measures:
2012 had the shortest average distance, at 944 km, followed by 2020 (991 km) and 2016 (1,060 km).
The 81-10 average is 1,328 km, and the maximum occurred in 1980 at 1,452 km.

There are some major limitations to this, especially looking at the minima for a single day when the ice edge may have reached closer to the N. Pole on days other than the minimum - but it's a start.

Anyway, I'll post some more regional data up tomorrow when I have more time.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #422 on: October 20, 2020, 09:05:31 PM »
The 3-day forecast is finally going below freezing on the Russian side of the Arctic, although still far above normal: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=arc-lea&nday=3-day

Sometimes we have to be careful looking at temperature maps in areas of open water as the models will always forecast higher temperatures whilst that open water is there. As far as I understand it, if ice did indeed grow in some of that open water area, the models will show slightly colder temperatures than first predicted. As it happens though, it seems difficult at this point too see much refreeze from the main pack but hopefully we will see more evidence of coastal ice forming with winds blowing in from the landmasses.
There are some signs of light coastal refreeze along the esas. AMSR2 (awi v103) struggling to detect it consistently oct9-19, polarview S1 showing more detail on oct19.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 09:29:11 PM by uniquorn »

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #423 on: October 20, 2020, 10:04:12 PM »
Quote
Too much heat stored. May, July, August were the warmest on record north of 70 latitude, June was the 2nd warmest, September the 3d warmest.
Plus too much summer sunshine on low albedo open water in addition to longer term trend marine preconditioning.

Coastal landfast ice ... forget it. It was a big deal 30-40 years ago. It will not grow out significantly and certainly not meet up with the main ice pack. Ice grows primarily all around the periphery of the main ice pack. There's a reason for that: it's colder next to a lateral wall of ice (Fig.1). The ice pack will grow up towards the ESS, eventually separating the Laptev waters from the Chukchi (which will be the very last to freeze, early January).

The second figure adds the ice pack to uniq's Laptev active temperature sensors and deletes the non-reporting devices leaving 6 instruments (plus a few weather stations) reporting on millions of sq km of open water. Too bad the Polarstern had to go in. The Arctic basin is currently 39.8% open water by pixel count.

Revisiting @zlabe's Laptev records, at this point 2020 does not resemble previous record years at all so a new record date is likely, perhaps 2-3 weeks beyond the previous latest freeze-up (Nov 6th).

Looking now at the last 18 days of thickening of new ice at the pack edge with SMOS-SMAP (which can only measure 0.0 to 0.5 m thickness), it's not all that clear how rapidly thickness is progressing to the cutoff (tan color) because cycling winds are moving features around on a daily basis per OsiSaf. Click to animate.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 10:20:55 PM by A-Team »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #424 on: October 20, 2020, 10:41:14 PM »
Quote
Too much heat stored. May, July, August were the warmest on record north of 70 latitude, June was the 2nd warmest, September the 3d warmest.
Plus too much summer sunshine on low albedo open water in addition to longer term trend marine preconditioning.

Coastal landfast ice ... forget it. It was a big deal 30-40 years ago. It will not grow out significantly and certainly not meet up with the main ice pack. Ice grows primarily all around the periphery of the main ice pack. There's a reason for that: it's colder next to a lateral wall of ice (Fig.1). The ice pack will grow up towards the ESS, eventually separating the Laptev waters from the Chukchi (which will be the very last to freeze, early January).<snip>
Do you think that when the heat from the arctic deep starts keeping the Arctic Ocean open that the only ice we'll see will be located at the shores, where it is more shallow?
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #425 on: October 20, 2020, 10:56:29 PM »
This refreeze season is just so strange! It's weird how things are somewhat 'normal' on the North American side (not sure what normal even is anymore), but the amount of open water this late in the year is pretty wild. There's no way to know without measuring it, but I suspect the extra warmth this summer on the Siberian side did increase evaporation in conjunction with intense late-season winds only help the further weaken the halocline layer.

I'm sure most of the major areas of the Arctic will refreeze prior to the start of the 2021 melt season, but it's impossible for me to guess what kind of impact such a late start will have. That said, if there are a few areas which remain open throughout the winter I think that will have some profound effects going forward. 
pls!

kassy

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #426 on: October 20, 2020, 11:43:52 PM »
It´s not that strange. A couple of years back it was warmer at the north pole then in London.
I really see this just as a logical progression.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #427 on: October 21, 2020, 12:19:18 AM »
I didn't see this posted here yet...
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #428 on: October 21, 2020, 04:14:02 AM »
I have to agree with Pearscot, it is strange.  Strange that many of us were predicting that all the open ocean so early in the melting season, particularly in the Laptev, would result in a lot of heat being captured in Arctic waters resulting in a late freeze up, and then this actually happened!  After watching the Arctic a number of years you get sort of used to seeing the system defy short term expectations.

Seriously though, this is looking a bit different as we are setting new unfortunate records daily again and definitely an ill portent if it continues much longer.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #429 on: October 21, 2020, 06:02:30 AM »
I agree. Late freezing season is a definitive event in the future year. Those only focus on the year maximum and minimum sea ice extent value cannot see the whole thing.

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #430 on: October 21, 2020, 09:43:02 AM »
In terms of daily ice gains second half of October and early November should be peak refreezing days. It looks like this peak is being postponed further down the road. Either that or refreezing will just smoothen out over a longer period.

Year 2020 was a slow starter due to cold winter, but since then it has been building up strongly and looks like we are reaching culmination late in the year, already after the melting season. Now 1M km2 advantage over 3rd place. How much bigger can it get?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #431 on: October 21, 2020, 11:57:41 AM »
NSIDC ease-grid ice sea age update. The nearest clear day I found on Worldview for comparison in the Beaufort was oct8. https://go.nasa.gov/2IITyxk
click for animation.
edit: 2000-2020 animation here
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 12:26:47 PM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #432 on: October 21, 2020, 02:26:32 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #433 on: October 21, 2020, 02:31:10 PM »
The Oct 6th sea ice age view of first year ice can be updated to Oct 20th. NSIDC defines graduation day as Sept 15th for consistency regardless of the actual minimum. The image below subtracts the two dates, the difference being the new ice to date (not allowing for ice displacement). Almost all the FYI is in the 'lower half' some 35 days in to the freezing season, unlike 2019 etc.

Climate reanalyzer does not foresee 2m temperatures dropping too much over the next ten days. Because some colors are dithered (for print!?!), the correspondence with the color bar is poor. Accurate tick marks cannot be put on the color bar because its pixel width is not an integral multiple of degrees. These errors degrade expensively acquired data so need to be fixed.

Roughly then, the contour range is a degree or two above and a few below 0ºC in the 'upper half', not enough for seawater to freeze (selected areas on color bar, lower left). The anomaly is relative to 1979-2000 so, given Arctic Amplification, is quite pronounced.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=arc-lea&nday=10-day
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 07:59:56 PM by A-Team »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #434 on: October 21, 2020, 02:33:34 PM »
Amazing how these lows traversing the Siberian and Pacific side of the basin are preventing any real deep freeze surface temperatures from setting up where we currently have open water. They are even delivering relatively warm temperatures over the ice edges. Contrast this with the very low surface temps north of Greenland.

Are we seeing rough seas in the open waters?
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 02:39:21 PM by Shared Humanity »

binntho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #435 on: October 21, 2020, 02:41:00 PM »
It feels a bit like a battle between two major powers the "Oceanic Republic" and the "Continental Empire". Normally at this time of year, the Arctic would be fast slipping under the control of the latter, along with Siberia, firmly establishing a contintental climate.

But this year the Republic is fighting a tenuous rearguard action, keeping millions of km2 under  an oceanic climate for the first time in recent memory.

We all seem to agree that the Empire will win this battle eventually, at least this winter, but what about next year? What happens when an oceanic climate manages to keep it's hold of the Siberian coastline throughout winter? The effects on the permafrost hardly bear thinking about, let alone the knock-on effects on weather all over the place.
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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #436 on: October 21, 2020, 03:08:30 PM »
Records continue to tumble.
Now the slowest October increase to the 20th, lowest on record by 455k, largest -ve anomaly on record at 3.396 million km2 and almost 4 million km2 below the average of the 1980s
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #437 on: October 21, 2020, 03:28:25 PM »
The ice on the Eurasian side of the N pole is slightly greater than 1 meter thick according to Russian reports. They just sent a new icebreaker to the pole to test its performance but the ice was too thin to test it. They hoped to find some 3 m thick ice but icebreaker went to the pole unhindered by any thick ice. From the Barents Observer
 https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/10/north-pole-ice-cap-too-thin-testing-russias-giant-icebreaker

“Ice tests are still ahead, probably this year, because now ice tests did not work out, the ice thickness was 1,1 to 1,2 meters. It was thin and loose, the icebreaker received no resistance at all,” Shchapin says.

He adds: “We tried to find a three-meters ice floe, but they did not find it.”

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #438 on: October 21, 2020, 03:46:35 PM »
Fragmented, one meter thick ice all the way to the North Pole!

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #439 on: October 21, 2020, 04:09:48 PM »
The ice on the Eurasian side of the N pole is slightly greater than 1 meter thick according to Russian reports. They just sent a new icebreaker to the pole to test its performance but the ice was too thin to test it. They hoped to find some 3 m thick ice but icebreaker went to the pole unhindered by any thick ice. From the Barents Observer
 https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/10/north-pole-ice-cap-too-thin-testing-russias-giant-icebreaker

“Ice tests are still ahead, probably this year, because now ice tests did not work out, the ice thickness was 1,1 to 1,2 meters. It was thin and loose, the icebreaker received no resistance at all,” Shchapin says.

He adds: “We tried to find a three-meters ice floe, but they did not find it.”


The Canadian and Greenlandic comrades could have allowed the Russian comrades to sail in their territorial waters to test their new toy. Perhaps the size of future icebreakers should be reduced. 8)
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aslan

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #440 on: October 21, 2020, 06:39:45 PM »
After the storm of this mid October I was also wondering myself what are the consequences of the open water on synoptic forcings for ascent. As a remainder, vertical velocity are stronger for a same forcing with lower static stability. I don't know if there is studies about this subject, or if it is a significant effect, but it is an open question for me. This is probably linked to the displacement of the eddy driven jet, but I am not aware of any study really looking specifically at the consequences of this reduced static stability. This is also leading to higher wind speed at surface, as seen with the last storm. On top of that, strong inversion over ice pack, and now over the continent, is on juxtaposition of this low static stability, leading to increased baroclinic instability. But what is the magnitude of this effect ? I am really clueless. To illustrate, I have compute a crude static stability parameter, by subtracting potential temperature at 700 hPa and at 950 hPa, normalized by the thickness 700 - 950 hPa. All of this multiplied by 10 to better seen what is going on. Below 0, the atmosphere is superadiabatic, and everything above is subadiabatic. Over mountains (like, said, the Rockies...), results are of course useless, as the model interpolate trough the terrain. Maps are for, in order, the 21st to the 24th at 00Z. Didn't try to average trough time, the computer would probably have hoist the white flag before the end... We can see a persistent area of low stability over the Siberian seas.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #441 on: October 21, 2020, 08:29:59 PM »
There is going to be an imminent start to the refreeze in Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin, some of the shorelines are now seeing ice develop, this will be ahead of most recent years and could mask the continued horrible state of the Laptev, ESS, Kara, Bering. Bering is WARM.

In fact the entire cryosphere is now showing signs of being lobbed into two, as visible in Sark's thread. While the overall numbers are down as a whole they are concentrated in the Eurasian-adjacent sea ice and Eurasia itself, the positives are being made up in CAA, North American snowcover, and imminently, Hudson Bay / Foxe Basin.

Why is the cyrosphere splitting into two most consistently these days? Look at the maps! Thank you Nicosun for the fantastic maps, btw.





I think this portends the worst-ever refreeze of the Arctic Basin itself. But potentially weird situations like an abundance of ice in random lower latitude locations east of Canada and Greenland and maybe Okhotsk.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #442 on: October 22, 2020, 03:36:28 AM »
Ice obediently trying to follow the "First, you must cover the Arctic Basin, and only then the Siberian Seas" rule.              Oct 20, 2020.   https://oden.geo.su.se/map/

If the early summer melt over the Laptev corner of the Arctic Basin is any indication, there may be late refreezing over that area of the basin.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 03:50:39 AM by Pagophilus »

mabarnes

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #443 on: October 22, 2020, 04:56:35 AM »
Hey question for anybody who knows more than I about this stuff:

AKA everybody LOL.

So GFS shows a low pressure spinning out over the ESS next few days - is this going to be (my attempt) rising air, convection upward, more heat out to space, maybe venting some of it off ... or the opposite?  Or something totally different?

Trying to build a framework here.  Anybody with insomnia want a detailed lesson on economic analysis using multivariate systems, I'll return the favor! 
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 05:39:03 AM by mabarnes »

El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #444 on: October 22, 2020, 07:31:26 AM »
I know nothing, but I'd say that low pressure = clouds = less heat out into space. Aint it so?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #445 on: October 22, 2020, 11:34:18 AM »
October 17-21.

2019.

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #446 on: October 22, 2020, 01:00:13 PM »
You read all about it first on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/alarm-as-arctic-sea-ice-not-yet-freezing-at-latest-date-on-record
Alarm as Arctic sea ice not yet freezing at latest date on record
Delayed freeze in Laptev Sea could have knock-on effects across polar region, scientists say

Quote
For the first time since records began, the main nursery of Arctic sea ice in Siberia has yet to start freezing in late October.

The delayed annual freeze in the Laptev Sea has been caused by freakishly protracted warmth in northern Russia and the intrusion of Atlantic waters, say climate scientists who warn of possible knock-on effects across the polar region.

Ocean temperatures in the area recently climbed to more than 5C above average, following a record breaking heatwave and the unusually early decline of last winter’s sea ice.

The trapped heat takes a long time to dissipate into the atmosphere, even at this time of the year when the sun creeps above the horizon for little more than an hour or two each day.

Graphs of sea-ice extent in the Laptev Sea, which usually show a healthy seasonal pulse, appear to have flat-lined. As a result, there is a record amount of open sea in the Arctic.

“The lack of freeze-up so far this fall is unprecedented in the Siberian Arctic region,” said Zachary Labe, a postdoctoral researcher at Colorado State University. He says this is in line with the expected impact of human-driven climate change.

“2020 is another year that is consistent with a rapidly changing Arctic. Without a systematic reduction in greenhouse gases, the likelihood of our first ‘ice-free’ summer will continue to increase by the mid-21st century,’ he wrote in an email to the Guardian.

This year’s Siberian heatwave was made at least 600 times more likely by industrial and agricultural emissions, according to an earlier study.

The warmer air temperature is not the only factor slowing the formation of ice. Climate change is also pushing more balmy Atlantic currents into the Arctic and breaking up the usual stratification between warm deep waters and the cool surface. This also makes it difficult for ice to form.

“This continues a streak of very low extents. The last 14 years, 2007 to 2020, are the lowest 14 years in the satellite record starting in 1979,” said Walt Meier, senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. He said much of the old ice in the Arctic is now disappearing, leaving thinner seasonal ice. Overall the average thickness is half what it was in the 1980s. The downward trend is likely to continue until the Arctic has its first ice-free summer, said Meier. The data and models suggest this will occur between 2030 and 2050. “It’s a matter of when, not if,” he added.

Scientists are concerned the delayed freeze could amplify feedbacks that accelerate the decline of the ice cap. It is already well known that a smaller ice sheet means less of a white area to reflect the sun’s heat back into space. But this is not the only reason the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the global average.

The Laptev Sea is known as the birthplace of ice, which forms along the coast there in early winter, then drifts westward carrying nutrients across the Arctic, before breaking up in the spring in the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. If ice forms late in the Laptev, it will be thinner and thus more likely to melt before it reaches the Fram Strait. This could mean fewer nutrients for Arctic plankton, which will then have a reduced capacity to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

More open sea also means more turbulence in the upper layer of the Arctic ocean, which draws up more warm water from the depths.

Dr Stefan Hendricks, a sea ice physics specialist at the Alfred Wegener Institute, said the sea ice trends are grim but not surprising. “It is more frustrating than shocking. This has been forecast for a long time, but there has been little substantial response by decision-makers.”
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grixm

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #447 on: October 22, 2020, 01:01:17 PM »
October 17-21.

2019.

Looks like the freeze is finally getting started in various Laptev and Kara river outlets.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #448 on: October 22, 2020, 02:15:49 PM »
Ice obediently trying to follow the "First, you must cover the Arctic Basin, and only then the Siberian Seas" rule.              Oct 20, 2020.   https://oden.geo.su.se/map/

If the early summer melt over the Laptev corner of the Arctic Basin is any indication, there may be late refreezing over that area of the basin.

You look to be right.

gerontocrat posts data and charts daily on the Sea Ice Extent and Area thread. I make a habit of visiting that thread daily. I brought this one over as an example. Laptev is entering a very scary place. Still possible for it to freeze over rapidly. Last 9 days of October are going to be interesting. Let's hope we don't flatline for the remainder of the month.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 06:14:18 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #449 on: October 22, 2020, 03:52:18 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...