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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #600 on: October 28, 2020, 02:15:05 PM »
Just looking at the cumulative extent anomaly (vs the 81-10 average) for the Russian Arctic seas, ESS, Laptev and Kara. Already plenty more than any other year's annual total, and likely to see the record breaking anomaly grow over the coming weeks.

Isn't the scale for the anomaly incorrect, shouldn't be thousands of million km^2.

It's a cumulative anomaly. So the daily anomalies added up reached 1 million km2 around the start of March, 10 million around mid May, 100 million mid June, and 1,000 million the start of September
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #601 on: October 28, 2020, 03:58:18 PM »
Thanks, A-Team for the details, graphics and clear analysis of what is apparently happening on the Siberian shelf slope. The intrusion of warm Atlantic water and increased convection this fall with the vast area of warm ocean water overturning as the surface cools, increasing its density could be destabilizing parts of the shelf slope. The Storegga slide off the continental slope of Norway is an example of how serious slope instability can be when methane is involved.

The reason I wrote that methane clathrates are involved is the statement you quoted,
“The discovery of actively releasing shelf slope hydrates is very important and unknown until now,”

Methane hydrates are clathrates. Because sea level was much lower in the Pleistocene, permafrost runs deep in the Siberian shelf. The shelf was above sea level 15,000 years before present during the brutally cold Wisconsin period of the ice ages.  Siberian permafrost contains a high percentage of carbon from decayed organic matter that is degraded by bacteria into methane under anoxic conditions. As Atlantification continues slope instability will increase and gas pressure from CO2 and methane will add to the instability. The present lack of sea ice Laptev sea is the surface expression of major changes happening at depth.

The phase diagram below shows that methane hydrates are not stable in shallow sediments under the very shallow parts of the Siberian seas.

« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 04:04:55 PM by FishOutofWater »

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #602 on: October 28, 2020, 07:26:15 PM »
Quote
SubRime: Semiletov indeed says hydrates
Thx, distracted by a trip, fixed it. We might best continue this on the methane forum. By the time it reaches the surface, methane is methane whether it originated primordially, pyrolytically, or from methanogenic archaea with or without passing through clathrate. They might have gravity-cored the slope for hydrate though this was not a drill ship. Otherwise there isn't any good isotopic signature of origin if it's older than 50ky (C14 gone). As BftV notes, Arctic methane is not currently a huge contributor; it might take decades to build up a convincing time series of increase. It would then be too late to do anything about it. It already is, thawing is locked in. With or without this methane, application of the precautionary principle (which would make room for this methane) is long overdue.

The animation below looks at the slow growth of the icepack from the minimum to yesterday, with the spacing of the peripheral edge giving some idea of rate of advance. In conjunction with uniq's direct buoy data, GFS air temperatures, and L4 GHRSST-SSTfnd, seawater and air are not nearly cold enough at this time.

Geronto makes an interesting point wrt erratic growth in the Kara; zlabe's graph does not show any data points and may be overly fit (to logistics curve?) with the Laptev boundaries not specified (is the uptick attributable to sideways growth offshore SZ?).
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 07:38:05 PM by A-Team »

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #603 on: October 28, 2020, 08:42:24 PM »
Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.49 million km2, 1.39 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 21.0% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
     10-year average gain may not be that useful under this anomalous circumstance.  Those earlier years had already "used up" a lot of open water freezing capacity by this date.  So when 2020-2021 does begin freezing it will have more opportunity for rapid increase.

     But also note that even at the highest remaining gain for the past 13 years (7.61M km2 in 2019-2020), the resulting maximum at 13.49 would still be 0.39M km2 less than the previous record low maximum Extent of 13.88.   To NOT set a new record low Maximum, remaining refreeze must exceed the highest refreeze within the last 13 years by over 5%.

     Even with rapid catch up once freezing begins late, the longer this delay persists, the more difficult it is for refreeze to compensate for so much lost time.  (Duh, another stunningly obvious revelation, but at least I put numbers to it. :D)

      As noted by more learned souls, even if/when Extent more or less catches up to "normal", the thickness and quality of that ice won't be the same.  I hate to use a boxing analogy, (a sport I can no longer watch given what we now know about brain damage), but the ASI is like a boxer who has taken too many punches to the head.  It will get off its corner stool for the next round of melt season in April, but it will be less able to resist further blows if there is another warm or sunny Arctic summer like 2020.  It looks like the 2012 record lows won't last much longer.  Not good. 

     Winter is supposed to be "off-season" for ASIF, when we twiddled our thumbs and waited for the next melt season.  Freeze season is not supposed to be this "interesting."  Now the refreeze race to a depleted maximum is almost as interesting as the annual September minimum derby.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 03:56:54 PM by Glen Koehler »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #604 on: October 29, 2020, 11:02:56 AM »
Comments by coelho and Stephan in the area and extent thread highlighted for me that the total extent graph, with its peripheral seas inclusion, is not always the best one to watch when it comes to refreeze.  If one is looking at what is happening in the Arctic Ocean itself, then Gerontocrat's CAS graph might also be tracked.  Below is his latest chart for the CAS (Central Arctic Seas). 

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #605 on: October 29, 2020, 12:19:39 PM »
CS2SMOS update oct20-26
edit: changed a colour table to avoid confusion. Changed uncertainty to sum.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 01:04:26 PM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #606 on: October 29, 2020, 03:10:45 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

It looks like a Laptev cooling wind is coming in...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #607 on: October 29, 2020, 03:18:16 PM »
CS2SMOS update oct20-26
edit: changed a colour table to avoid confusion. Changed uncertainty to sum.
I think it would be easier to view if you post the three images separately. Now they're passing by so quickly...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #608 on: October 29, 2020, 05:46:58 PM »

http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/CMs/ClStr/navmenu.php?page=2.0.0
Quote
Cloud Streets over sea:
In many cases Cloud Streets can be seen during synoptic scale outbreaks of cold, dry air from continents over a neighbouring relatively warm ocean. This flow often occurs behind a Cold front (see Cold Front ). As the cold air leaves the land or ice surface it is modified by vertical transfer of heat and moisture from the underlying water surface. An inversion will be formed the base of which rises with the distance from shore. The formation of the inversion is, in many cases, stimulated by NVA and subsequent sinking motion in the stream upwind of the 500 hPa trough-axis (see image below).

Quote
The transformation of the air mass eventually leads to the formation of clouds which, under certain circumstances, take the form of Cloud Streets, and develop roughly parallel to the wind direction (see graphic below). Further downwind from the outbreak, the unstable layer becomes deeper, the flow becomes more cyclonic and the streets develop into three-dimensional open cells. Near the upper-trough the convection is enhanced by PVA, resulting in the formation of EC (see Enhanced Cumulus ) and Comma (see Comma ).

Cloud Streets
Quote
Spacing and alignment of Cloud Streets
The distance between adjacent Streets has been observed as approximately three times the height of the inversion or stable layer. Cumulus streets are aligned parallel to, or within a few degrees of, the direction of the wind in the convective layer. Bends in the wind flow are often indicated by bends in the Cloud Streets. A single line of cumuli often extends to more than 100 km downwind; the entire field may extend over 100 km downwind and has been observed to have a width in excess of 500 km. On very high resolution satellite pictures up to 100 nearly parallel lines of cumuli have been observed.

I haven't counted them.  https://go.nasa.gov/34APTKC  oct29
If the quote above is correct then the inversion layer is pretty low.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 07:45:51 PM by uniquorn »

grixm

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #609 on: October 29, 2020, 09:36:19 PM »
Almost no parts of the siberian seas that hasn't completely saturated the anomaly color gradient on Nico Sun's charts.  :o

Killian

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #610 on: October 29, 2020, 10:33:59 PM »
Winter is supposed to be "off-season" for ASIF, when we twiddled our thumbs and waited for the next melt season.  Freeze season is not supposed to be this "interesting."  Now the refreeze race to a depleted maximum is almost as interesting as the annual September minimum derby.

However, completely expected, at least in terms of the trend. I spend most of my "climate" talk time over at RealClimate. One of the observations I made over there in previous years was that the trend for later refreeze and the effects of that in less ice volume and weaker ice: Less time for freezing should lead to thinner ice and less extent, at least in trend, and ice age definitely affects density and resilience.

This was a couple years ago, I believe.

And, of course, the slower the freeze, the more energy input into the ocean/seas, the faster it melts in summer and the greater area the area exposed to insolation, and the later it melts and... round and round we go.

Bifurcations-R-Us.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #611 on: October 29, 2020, 11:18:22 PM »


SST foundation temperature (10m) update, oct18-28. click for ani.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #612 on: October 30, 2020, 12:36:16 AM »
     FWIW - The edited chart below shows how an NSIDC maximum Extent would compare to other years if refreeze from Oct 28 followed the highest rate in most recent 13 years until reaching a maximum in March 2021.  Based on JAXA values posted by gerontocrat: 
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg291409.html#msg291409

      To create the hypothetical NSIDC max I increased the extrapolated JAXA max by 0.41 M km2 to account for the difference between JAXA and NSIDC record lows.  (The extrapolated JAXA low would be 13.49).

      Extent value is an incomplete metric to represent the complexity of ASI condition.  Additional dimensions (Area, Volume) and qualitative characteristics (Thickness, salinity, mechanical strength, snow cover, temperature?, density?) are missing from a simple measure of maximum Extent.  In addition to ice measures, it seems that emerging changes in the Arctic Ocean (open water, wave action, water temperature, thermo-halocline stability, Atlantification, currents, storm potential, less ice pack cohesion with greater floe mobility, and more) are almost all on the side of working against ice retention, not promoting it (a possible exception being jet stream changes described by Francis and Wu 2020, https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2692.msg291501.html#msg291501)

      Thus, even if the resulting maximum Extent is closer to (or above) the trend line, the 2021 maximum Extent value, whatever it is, will be for ice that on average is almost certainly less resistant to melt than even the most recent historical norm as it heads into the 2021 melt season. 

       It must also be noted that when the long term trend is extracted, the annual maximum Extent has almost no predictive power for the subsequent September minimum.  A dramatically low March maximum at the beginning of the melt season does not tell us what to expect at the end of the melt season. 

      But with the expected effects of late refreeze on ice quality and melt resistance, I wonder if that previous lack of correlation between preceding maximum to the subsequent minimum will continue.  Compounding effects of qualitative decline may emerge from the noise of year-to-year variability to become a separate and identifiable (and measurable, monitored, and reported?) influence.  Just guesswork inspired by hypotheticals.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 03:57:33 PM by Glen Koehler »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #613 on: October 30, 2020, 03:56:19 AM »
the annual maximum Extent has almost no predictive power for the subsequent September minimum. 
And of course a recent example of this is the fact that the March maximum this year was the third-highest of the last ten years, yet was succeeded by the recent second-lowest September minimum.  As Stephan was arguing on the extent and area thread, that March maximum extent contains so much information from the peripheral seas, which have their own inherent variability..

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #614 on: October 30, 2020, 06:26:19 AM »
October 25-29.

2019.

aslan

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #615 on: October 30, 2020, 10:08:24 AM »

I haven't counted them.  https://go.nasa.gov/34APTKC  oct29
If the quote above is correct then the inversion layer is pretty low.

Not a lot of time again, sorry, but if models are of any usefulness. From North to South, following more or less the flow : 83.30°N 138.30°E at 03Z the 29th ; 81.00°N 144.00°E at 03Z the 29th ; 77.00°N 145.00°E at 06Z the 29th and same hour 74.30°N 146.00°E

aslan

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #616 on: October 30, 2020, 10:40:08 AM »
P.S. : About this subject also, CBs -and confirmed by satellites- and snow shower under CB at Kotel'Nyj and Vrangel, wich at this time of year is rare (especially as it is the same kind of weather since 3 days with continous reports of CB...):

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/decomet?ind=21432&ano=2020&mes=10&day=30&hora=06&min=00&single=yes

No thunderstorm but it was not far away... (models were also hiting at this possibility).

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #617 on: October 30, 2020, 01:40:03 PM »
October 25-29.

2019.
Thanks as ever, Aluminium.  Looks like the Siberian seas refreeze is beginning to accelerate. 

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #618 on: October 30, 2020, 02:13:00 PM »
Some colder air swung up from the 'lower half' but swung back down, with 80º 140º in mid-Laptev seeing water-cooling temperatures but not enough to create ice given the wind speeds.Ten days to Mov 3rd, needs click to animate. Open water in the Arctic basin still amounts to 35% on 29 Oct 2020.

The double palette histogram shows the spacial and frequency of the temperature distribution SSTfnd statistics. The lower palette is the kelvin water temperature from Panoply of the netCDF; the grayscale value frequencies can be read off the gridded upper palette scale. The pink vertical bar at 64 gray shows the average water temperature to be two degrees celsius above the -1.8ºC freezing point of 32 psu seawater. Next up: animate the histogram over the freeze season to date. The histogram is an im;ortant tool in identifying outliers and thus restricting scale setting in Panoply so as to attain maximal spread across the palette.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 07:24:09 PM by A-Team »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #619 on: October 30, 2020, 03:34:04 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #620 on: October 30, 2020, 08:44:29 PM »
"boots on the ground" buoys are showing its above freezing at the north pole right now

Nullschool strongly contests that  :o
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #621 on: October 30, 2020, 09:17:12 PM »
Boots on the ground ...great update! Do we have a full list of data links to the 5-6 floating in open water on the Siberian side -- and the UTC times of the readings displayed? The blue in the image below shows the latest open water according to AMSR2_AWI for Oct 29th, PM orbits. There are many types of buoys and designs of sensors out there.

The SVP-B   AARI-USIABP Laptev floaters were described earlier: the temperature sensors are in the bottom of the buoy so maybe 30 cm underwater. These buoys measure surfact barometric pressure but not air temperature. The nullschool layer above is described as 'surface' air temperatures for the next day Oct 30th at 18:00 Local Time (please use UTC). Note how rapidly air temperatures change over 3hr increments (see #618 for daily).

If there is a conflict, what it says is that GFS is not assimilating buoy surface air temperatures (2m) so it is basing on distant shore stations or non-reanalyzed weather models as there is no magical satellite layer for this.

It might be more informative to compare the free floating buoy water temperatures with SSTfnd water data which is available as SPO-L4_GHRSST-SSTfnd for Oct 29th. Here the agreement should be good (especially if the latter assimilates the former and only re-grids it!).

The easy way to check is open 'array view' in Panoply and scroll around the temperature numbers over to the lat lon of the buoys. However it is only giving data to integer kelvin values. The location of the buoy (small yellow square) in the Panoply map is again not quite the buoy temperature but here there is an issue of comparing hourly timing to once a day.

We don't actually know how well SSTfnd (10m mixed layer) is supposed to agree with buoys like this which are measuring more like SSTsubskin. Here, the buoy water should sink since colder seawater is denser, bring mixing eddies. The mixing may take time ... weather-driven systems like this are forever approaching equilibrium but never quite get there.

https://tinyurl.com/yxph3zva

The temperature boxes don't show buoy id numbers. Previously we mentioned #204672 (not currently in IADP's table) and #204760-204764 as being located appropriately. The small numeric data files are downloaded if you click on 'Level 1'. The buoy 204764 has been cooling down over the last 14 days and finally gotten below 0ºC though nowhere near -1.8ºC. It is currently at 79.3     126.4 at -0.56ºC.

The graph does seem to have an erratic downward trend so it might be productive to do a least sq fit (ŷ = -0.00593X + 2.68812) and extrapolation (188 hours or 7.8 days to reach -1.8ºC).

https://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/regression/default.aspx
https://iabp.apl.uw.edu/TABLES/ArcticTable.php
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 12:06:16 AM by A-Team »

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #622 on: October 30, 2020, 11:05:43 PM »
Many very good points made A-team, particularly regarding measurement times and retroactively examining data with Level-1. 

At the moment I have been piggybacking off uniquorns efforts with the buoys. Im forcing myself to not use any bespoke applications for parsing the data for learning purposes but hopefully in time im able to produce something more substantive.

There is a wealth of information on "real" (non satellite) data, its just figuring out how best to use it, as im sure you know

Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

jens

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #623 on: October 31, 2020, 07:45:17 AM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #624 on: October 31, 2020, 11:02:34 AM »
Quote
peak extent gains are happening now
Based on what? If this a prediction, where is your attached supporting data?

Still record open water for the date by a huge margin, unprecedented delay in Laptev freeze-up, some indication of a Wrangle arm setting up however. The lower basin is largely closed over already, mostly just thickening.

<For the record, Gero made a factual statement about extent data of the past few days. If important or not, saves the ice or not, is another matter. O>
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:43:44 PM by oren »

gandul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #625 on: October 31, 2020, 11:25:45 AM »
Quote
peak extent gains are happening now
Based on what? If this a prediction, where is your attached supporting data?

Still record open water for the date by a huge margin, unprecedented delay in Laptev freeze-up, but indication of a Wrangle arm setting up?.
Laptev is next, by now it must be well below average in terms of mixed layer enthalpy (my speculation).

<Hints of "allowed narrative" removed. O>
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:41:40 PM by oren »

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #626 on: October 31, 2020, 11:29:36 AM »
Our non-stop, never-data climate change minimizer!

How do you know it's an accurate prediction of the future if there is no supporting data (given the future isn't here yet)?

Mixed layer enthalpy speculation .. do you even know where the data for that is located? It takes less than a minute to look at it. It's at an all-time record high for the date for the Siberian side.

The Laptev won't be next: buoy surface temperatures in Laptev are still far from freezing, as are SSTfnd. Five-day temperature at 80º 140º are forecast moderate; ice pack edge is still stalled on AMSR2_AWI. Next: Chukchi-Beaufort northern edge, Wrangel arm towards ESS per OsiSaf trend, historical patterns, GFS weather forecast. Then Laptev. Chukchi by Bering Strait last (Dec/Jan).
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 12:02:37 PM by A-Team »

RikW

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #627 on: October 31, 2020, 12:10:09 PM »
Quote
peak extent gains are happening now
Based on what? If this a prediction, where is your attached supporting data?

Still record open water for the date by a huge margin, unprecedented delay in Laptev freeze-up, some indication of a Wrangle arm setting up however. The lower basin is largely closed over already, mostly just thickening.

Well, 500k gain in 2 days is a peak when looking at historic numbers. And gains should be low compared to historic gains to make the difference between now and 2nd lowest year getting around 1M again. The only, although large, but is that the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #628 on: October 31, 2020, 01:49:36 PM »
Quote
the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have
Right. Where and why did "peak gains" occur, how might that location data be interpreted, what will the gains be tomorrow? Does not daily extent trivia belong on the extent forum?

I see zero interest in endlessly boring copy/pasting off the NSIDC site followed by droning on and on in October about maybe-records next March and Sept 2021. One-day records don't adequately characterize the situation in the Arctic to begin with, plus we don't have the slightest basis yet to predict what will happen.

Maybe we need a separate forum for the actual freezing season. Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

There is a tremendous amount to do given three very informative NEW sources of data on top of the usuals. Analysis is just a click or two away but only a few will take those clicks. Many hands make light work: it doesn't get any easier than plotting sea surface temperatures from buoys, it's high school complexity.

Tracking the unprecedented nature of the current freezing season is essential to understanding why it happened, what consequences are likely to follow, and whether it is one-off weather or beginnings of an annual trend. The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification, not a word about it here.

The first, attribution, has seen hand-waving -- but no apportionment -- about early melt, high insolation of resulting open water and winds mixing ice, combined with a Siberian heat wave and overall temperature anomaly. Some aspects of this are newly doable. The second, eg mapping rate of regional growth of ice thickness, is newly feasible from observables. The last needs a global model perspective so best we can do there is find the better journal treatments.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:01:47 PM by A-Team »

romett1

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #629 on: October 31, 2020, 01:58:04 PM »
Ob-Kara region - gains between Oct 30 and Oct 28. However looking at 7-day outlook things are not that rosy.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #630 on: October 31, 2020, 02:03:07 PM »
Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

I come here every day to follow what is going on and will contribute if I have something I think is worth contributing. I suspect that there are others like me. I enjoy your informative posts.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #631 on: October 31, 2020, 02:06:49 PM »
Holy shit.

The unprecedented ocean heat on the Siberian shelf has triggered the Siberian shelf clathrate "methane bomb".

Climate Feedback responds to the Grauniad article:

Quote
Scientists who reviewed the article explained that it presents some sensational claims and lacks important context. It is not known whether the methane released from the seafloor in this location of the Laptev Sea represents a new or changing release, contrary to the article’s claim, “concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.” It is also not known how much of that methane is reaching the atmosphere, as methane is often dissolved in the seawater and oxidized in these deep settings

etc. etc.

https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/guardian-article-on-arctic-methane-emissions-lacks-important-context-jonathan-watts/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

binntho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #632 on: October 31, 2020, 02:50:55 PM »
One thing you learn quite quickly as a programmer is that what you yourself think is easy is pretty much black magic to all non-programmers. In spite of having worked in software development for 30 years, I have absolutely no knowledge or experience in graphics programming and the images that  A-Team and BFTV and Uniqorn and others keep posting here seems like black magic to me. I enjoy it but don't try to convince me that it is easy.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

binntho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #633 on: October 31, 2020, 02:55:10 PM »
As for the amazing events that we see unfolding in the Arctic at this very moment, what can one do except keep saying "amazing" and other such inanities - we are powerless to stop it, and pretty much fumbling blindly in the dark at the back oft the cage with the blindfolded elephant when it comes to trying to understand what is happening.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #634 on: October 31, 2020, 03:03:04 PM »
Quote
the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have
Right. Where and why did "peak gains" occur, how might that location data be interpreted, what will the gains be tomorrow? Does not daily extent trivia belong on the extent forum?

I see zero interest in endlessly boring copy/pasting off the NSIDC site followed by droning on and on in October about maybe-records next March and Sept 2021. One-day records don't adequately characterize the situation in the Arctic to begin with, plus we don't have the slightest basis yet to predict what will happen.

Maybe we need a separate forum for the actual freezing season. Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

There is a tremendous amount to do given three very informative NEW sources of data on top of the usuals. Analysis is just a click or two away but only a few will take those clicks. Many hands make light work: it doesn't get any easier than plotting sea surface temperatures from buoys, it's high school complexity.

Tracking the unprecedented nature of the current freezing season is essential to understanding why it happened, what consequences are likely to follow, and whether it is one-off weather or beginnings of an annual trend. The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification, not a word about it here.

The first, attribution, has seen hand-waving -- but no apportionment -- about early melt, high insolation of resulting open water and winds mixing ice, combined with a Siberian heat wave and overall temperature anomaly. Some aspects of this are newly doable. The second, eg mapping rate of regional growth of ice thickness, is newly feasible from observables. The last needs a global model perspective so best we can do there is find the better journal treatments.
A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader. However, I must make some moderator comments here:
* Posting "boring" data gathered from various sites may not be glamorous or interesting to some, but it is an important contribution to the forum nonetheless, appreciated by many readers.
* Various extrapolations and discussions of extent data belong in this thread, while the data itself belongs in the data thread. Admittedly current extrapolations to 2021 min (or max) are IMHO meaningless, but they are still allowed and some readers appreciate them.
* Not all users are as analytically or scientifically capable, or have available time, or priorities, or confidence, to contribute as much as others. I know I am quite capable with Excel and some charts but lack both time, ability and inclination to deal with Panoply, netcdf and various other related matters. Tried and failed. So I consume what others produce, I appreciate, I thank, I even press "Like" which might be meaningless to most. But that's all I can do at this present time.
* I think the uptake of these data new sources is slowly growing, and the educational efforts are paying off. More users are joining the heavy analysis bandwagon. However, results take time and patience.
* I encourage users to post their best opinion even if not backed up by hard science or rigorous data (as long as posts are limited in number and length, so as not to drown the thread(s) in noise). Wide participation is an important value and promotes a higher readership in the long term.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #635 on: October 31, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »
Looking at the MASIE data, we've added 596k in the last 2 days. Almost half of this have come from the Russian Arctic seas (ESS +127k, Laptev +73k and Kara +84K).
The CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay (+103k, +79k and +51k respectively) are the other big gainers.

The north east passage now appears closed off again (extent-wise, obviously not quite an ice bridge).

« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 04:03:56 PM by BornFromTheVoid »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #636 on: October 31, 2020, 04:46:29 PM »
<snip> The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification,
     My understanding is that Arctic amplification is primarily due to less ice Extent --> albedo decline --> more sunlight energy absorption by dark open water --> warmer water --> more ice melt --> less ice Extent.  With very little sunlight reaching the Arctic at this time of year, how is it that fall is "peak Arctic amplification"? 
 
     I suppose more open water also creates more moisture in the air and thus a thicker insulating blanket to retain heat emitted by the open water, thus another reinforcing feedback.  But albedo change seems to be the most important forcing change caused by Arctic warming, and that change in net forcing should decline to near nothing in the fall.  So I don't understand how fall could be peak amplification unless "amplification" is a noun that refers to the observable impacts, not as a verb that describes additional forcing contributions.

     Thanks to Oren for "moderating."  I'm one of the 1783 ASIF members with no training in Arctic science or climatology.  I come here to learn and see what's happening in what is arguably the most consequential observable event in human history - the degradation of the Arctic sea ice.  I do work with weather and crop pests, and one of these days I suppose I could learn how to work with netCDF files, but it will never happen.  I have a colleague who does that.  But he doesn't know much about managing insects and diseases that attack crops.  So we each do our part.  We can't each do everything.  It's better if I let him handle the netCDF programming so I can focus on keeping up with the biological developments from my reading of the relevant information from about 1% up to maybe 2%. 

     The world is a complicated place.  It's great that we have access to so much information.  But it is also overwhelming, so we have to pick our spots.  Adding buoy analysis is not the right move for me or for bettering the world.  Scolding me about it is not going to change that. 

     I wish we had 1.7 billion people in the ASIF watching and worrying about the Arctic, whether or not they ever post any data analysis.  ASIF plays an important role in raising awareness, which is a necessary prerequisite for solutions.  I know at least one prominent journalist aware of the ASIF, and I'm sure there are many others.  I hope ASIF remains an open conversation that welcomes all and brings attention to the climate crisis. 
     
     And it IS a crisis even though for political purposes it seems to move too slow to meet that definition.  The faster that train rolls the less we can do about it.  It's already moving, and 30 more years of acceleration is already baked into the cake. It's like Dr. Fauci said about COVID-19, if you think you are here (low on the curve), you are really here (farther along and higher on the curve).  So you have to act accordingly.  Our house is on fire.  We need to support each other in whatever capacity we each have to attack the problem, not each other.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 01:56:26 AM by Glen Koehler »

El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #637 on: October 31, 2020, 05:09:56 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.   

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #638 on: October 31, 2020, 05:13:13 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.
Moderation in this forum now caters to the lowest common denominator instead of posters like you and A-Team who provide coherent original thought. It is hardly any wonder that repetitive regurgitations of numbers available elsewhere are dominating the discussion and drowning out actual constructive discourse. Very sad, hopefully Neven comes back soon!
<Discussion of moderation belongs to the Forum Decorum thread. O>
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 05:19:01 PM by oren »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #639 on: October 31, 2020, 05:51:23 PM »
Apart from the 'Laptev corner', current Arctic Ocean ice distribution coincides closely with the extent of the Arctic Basin itself.   Data for Oct 31.
https://oden.geo.su.se/map/ 

« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 06:12:27 PM by Pagophilus »

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #640 on: October 31, 2020, 06:08:44 PM »
Arctic ice extent Oct 30, 2020 vs Oct 30 2019, 2016, 2012

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 06:35:34 PM by Pagophilus »

psymmo7

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #641 on: October 31, 2020, 06:34:30 PM »
 Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #634 on: Today at 03:03:04 PM » from Oren about the purpose of this thread.

Thank you for moderating so competently Oren.
I thoroughly agree with your analysis.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #642 on: October 31, 2020, 06:41:27 PM »
We need to support each other in whatever capacity we each have to attack the problem, not each other.

Well said, Glen K.  I completely agree with you, and with Oren.  Thank you for writing your post.

Thank you to all who contribute here, especially to those deep experts who give so much of their time to the cause.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 06:49:01 PM by Pagophilus »

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #643 on: October 31, 2020, 07:05:49 PM »
Here is a possible new daily product -- hourly observational sea surface temperatures from a few Laptev buoys. One looks stuck in ice. A daily graph might be excessive effort but a simple table for the week might be within reach. It is right there as quick text at IABP but sometimes needs a few edits as the data is just the buoy calling Iridium, no one looking at it.

204760  79.08770    74.03980  0.72  305.6  31 Oct

 204761  74.49920  120.31750  -1.52  305.6  31 Oct

 204762  76.09440  125.53490  -0.08  305.6  31 Oct

 204763  76.70450  111.47850  -7.36  305.6  31 Oct

 204764  79.35490  128.56040  -0.24  305.6  31 Oct

« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 08:44:32 PM by A-Team »

gandul

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #644 on: October 31, 2020, 07:13:34 PM »
Our non-stop, never-data climate change minimizer!
That characterization is not correct, and it is a bit personal, it has a pass of the moderator, but ok, I myself have not been correct in the past.

I attach Zach Labe’s tweet on the Siberian warmth this year. It started in Feb to June then it moved over the Arctic with the July GAAC, and now the Arctic, I think, is returning what was given (and maybe more I speculate).

How important should the hypothesis about Atlantic Warmth reaching the Laptev be against what we have observed, 24h/20days July sun radiation and atmospheric heat all the summer, warmest probably from several millennia, from Siberia and GAAC?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #645 on: October 31, 2020, 08:36:52 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

A-Team

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #646 on: October 31, 2020, 08:57:54 PM »
The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.

It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)

If nobody works, how does any work get done?
 
The main forum has drifted off from citizen-science to chat room and copy/paste. The notion of posting a bald-faced claim without somewhat supporting it with a source, outside link, satellite product, other data or analysis -- who wants to do other people's homework? 

Climate change reminds me of covid19: a lot of immensely uninformed people running around making things worse. The very best communicators are not getting through despite setting up extraordinary resources (eg E Topol).

I post science-lite expository material: open data / freeware / no code / no calculus / no physics / no models but even that now exceeds the interest level.

I've no idea how the unprecedented current anomaly will play out but it is a good stand-in for a tipping point and imminent climate emergency -- and the experts are certainly taking it that way. It is definitely the biggest thing we've seen since the 2007 minimum and GAAC 2012.

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ... if so, climate chaos won't end with a bang but a brain-fog whimper.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 09:07:44 PM by A-Team »

Poldergeist

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #647 on: October 31, 2020, 09:37:33 PM »

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ...

I understand the feeling of urgency, but I don't understand why it has to be taken out on forum members like me, who are not scientists, but nevertheless like to stay informed. Now I definitely won't post an opinion.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #648 on: October 31, 2020, 10:47:06 PM »

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ...

I understand the feeling of urgency, but I don't understand why it has to be taken out on forum members like me, who are not scientists, but nevertheless like to stay informed. Now I definitely won't post an opinion.

I agree with your sentiments and I think I feel as you are feeling, Poldergeist, but I don't think that A-team, for all his deep expertise and contributions, gets to define what this forum is, or what others should think.  A welcoming, engaged community keeps people coming back and learning.

As Glen K wrote, we should attack the problem, not each other.  I, for one, will not be dissuaded from participation.

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #649 on: October 31, 2020, 11:58:47 PM »
The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.
Agree to all the above.

Quote
It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)
Indeed I echo the sentiment, a computer enables much more effective contributions.

The rest I will take as constructive criticism. Yes, each community member can and should strive to do more. Yes, the stuff is doable. No, I don't think there is apathy. And I still encourage all to post, within guidelines. This is especially true for new users who are not sure if their contributions are worth as much as the very quality stuff posted here. My answer is yes, more participation is desirable, and initial posts are always the hardest. At worst, posters could get some flak, but don't give up. If posts don't fit I can always move them elsewhere. The other threads mentioned above are certainly useful and appropriate for various types of posts, and feel free to practice there.