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oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #850 on: November 21, 2020, 08:24:49 AM »
The CAB is clawing its way again to FJL. Meanwhile in the southern Kara a massive retreat. Did that ice actually melt or was it squeezed in somehow?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #851 on: November 21, 2020, 12:58:41 PM »
Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #852 on: November 21, 2020, 01:07:37 PM »
The CAB is clawing its way again to FJL. Meanwhile in the southern Kara a massive retreat. Did that ice actually melt or was it squeezed in somehow?

Looks like both. Southwesterly wind and temps a little above freezing for most of the last week.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Vince O

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #853 on: November 22, 2020, 11:50:17 AM »
Well it looks like the ice is going to get a double whammy on both sides of the pack in the next week. According to the forecast on both Climate Reanalyzer and Earth nullschool the Pacific side which is already suffering a melt / push back (I'm being honest, I don't know why) will be getting sustained 50-60 km/h winds in exactly the direction it doesn't want along the Chuckchi and East Siberian Seas coast line. Sure that will push the ice back considerably.
     Then we have ther forecast on the Atlantic side for next Friday / Saturday (Yes, I know it's past four days, just) which, looking at both C.ReA and Earth Nulls conferring with each other the approach. I know things change, esp this year but it does look quite aweful hitting again where the ice is thin and only just getting itself reconsolidated after the last storm. This one looks bigger, deeper through the Fram Straight again. Can only watch tomorrow and Tuesday to see what might happen but with both forecasts having the storm come up Greenlands coast on Thurday late evening it doesn't look good.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #854 on: November 22, 2020, 07:09:25 PM »
Here's the slow sea ice concentration animation for the last week.

Regionally, big gains in Hudson Bay and along the Atlantic edge, mixed changes in Baffin, slight losses in Chukchi and big losses in the Kara Sea.

Also interesting (and probably worrying):  the new ice pack temporarily detaching from almost the entire Laptev coast and from some islands in the Laptev Sea on your animation BFTV.   Probably caused by SSW winds? -- the same winds you mention in your reply to oren above?  This sure looks like ice motion rather than ice melting.
 
Thanks as ever for these superb animations.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2020, 08:04:43 PM by Pagophilus »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #855 on: November 23, 2020, 12:23:12 PM »
Not only the Laptev. The Alaskan coast in the Beaufort is also looking unsettled. Southerly winds, then persistent easterlies drawing ice out to sea. (ice to the right of wind) Possible there is also upwelling there.
http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20201101/20201123/2/2

amsr2 awi v103, nov14-22
the swaths on this dev version not quite overlapping on nov15

The low concentration area verifies on viirs brightness temperature https://go.nasa.gov/3pTbTsN
Nullschool has ~-16C there today so the leads will be refreezing except those close to the chukchi.

edit: added laptev while it's all set up
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 01:10:02 PM by uniquorn »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #856 on: November 25, 2020, 05:46:04 AM »
November 18-24.

2019.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #857 on: November 25, 2020, 04:40:44 PM »
Some general context via NOAA on where the Earth has been anomalously warmest this year through Oct 31.  And how hot the Northern Hemisphere has been during this period.  My bolding.

"The global land-only January–October 2020 temperature departure of +1.60°C (+2.88°F) tied with 2016 as the highest temperature for January–October on record. The global ocean-only surface temperature was the second highest on record, behind the record set in 2016. The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was 1.29°C (2.32°F) above average and the highest on record for the January–October period , exceeding the previous record set in 2019 by 0.02°C (0.04°F). "

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202010

Central Siberia is obvious.  The cold blob in the North Atlantic is still going strong.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 04:46:31 PM by Pagophilus »

grixm

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #858 on: November 26, 2020, 02:28:41 PM »
Just a tip guys, if you're like me and check cryospherecomputing.tk regularly, but noticed that it has been down for the last few days, then the old site hosted by google but containing most of the same charts, is still up:

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #859 on: November 27, 2020, 03:55:45 PM »
As I suspected would occur, Hudson's refreeze was very rapid and is now almost complete. Ahead of any year since 1995, it seems per El Cid's data. I think this will aid in advection of Atlantic oceanic heat into the Barents / Kara / Laptev / CAB and we have now made up a big chunk of the "easy" gains as well. The fact we lost ice yesterday (while Hudson is still making its last leaps forward) is a very bad sign for the actual Arctic Basin, IMO.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #860 on: November 27, 2020, 04:00:46 PM »
Russian Arctic sea's have flatlined in the last 10 days and are back below 2012. Without a significant acceleration in growth, 2020 will be back to the lowest values in a week.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Vince O

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #861 on: November 27, 2020, 07:19:25 PM »
So looks like consistent 60-70km/hr winds driving out of the Fram Starit to the Atlantic for just over 24 hrs and a storm just North with 60 km/hr winds blowing into the pack. Does anyone think there might be any disruption of the ice on the Greenland North-East peninsula ? Maybe the winds this strong for a 24hr period might have some effect ?

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #862 on: November 27, 2020, 10:22:45 PM »
As I suspected would occur, Hudson's refreeze was very rapid and is now almost complete. Ahead of any year since 1995, it seems per El Cid's data. I think this will aid in advection of Atlantic oceanic heat into the Barents / Kara / Laptev / CAB and we have now made up a big chunk of the "easy" gains as well. The fact we lost ice yesterday (while Hudson is still making its last leaps forward) is a very bad sign for the actual Arctic Basin, IMO.
Indeed, you predicted fast Hudson Bay growth which materialized, as also shown by the AMSR2 area data.
As El Cid notes, 2018 is still ahead of 2020 by a bit, though this might change in a few days. In addition, 2014 is not far behind.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #863 on: November 27, 2020, 10:40:18 PM »
amsr2 awi v103 hudson, nov1-27(early) click for animation
noaa sea ice concentration, hudson nov27, 1981-2019 animation and compressed static (might be useful for the atmospheric connections thread) No data for 82 and 85.
The static image is compressed 1/10 width for easier visual comparison see more detail for other areas on the mosaic thread here
amap hudson bay currents.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2020, 11:06:15 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #864 on: November 28, 2020, 01:13:27 PM »
cs2smos merged sea ice thickness, oct22-nov25. The thicker short wrangel arm area north of ESS appears to have dispersed. smos also picking up the lower concentration area north west of Mackenzie Bay (see post #855 up thread)
click for animation

Reasonably cloudless over the Beaufort since nov21   https://go.nasa.gov/37hZwxQ
« Last Edit: November 28, 2020, 01:32:19 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #865 on: November 30, 2020, 01:29:57 PM »
While 2020 is currently 2nd lowest in extent, behind 2016, this is due to 2016's very delayed Hudson Bay refreeze. Within the Arctic Basin 2020 extent is now back to lowest on record according to all 3 measures tracked by Wipneus - UH, JAXA and NSIDC.
Click to enlarge.


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #866 on: November 30, 2020, 02:03:13 PM »
While 2020 is currently 2nd lowest in extent, behind 2016, this is due to 2016's very delayed Hudson Bay refreeze.......
.... and 2020's very advanced refreeze giving Hudson Bay sea ice area and extent above the 1990s average.....
and Greenland sea ice extent and area approaching the 1990's average.
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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #867 on: November 30, 2020, 03:20:38 PM »
Here's an animation highlighting the waxing and waning of the Kara sea ice coverage so far this refreeze.
Click to play
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #868 on: November 30, 2020, 04:05:25 PM »
While 2020 is currently 2nd lowest in extent, behind 2016, this is due to 2016's very delayed Hudson Bay refreeze. Within the Arctic Basin 2020 extent is now back to lowest on record according to all 3 measures tracked by Wipneus - UH, JAXA and NSIDC.
Thank you.  I was wondering about this.   And thanks gerontocrat and BFTV.   A question:  The Canadian side has been cooler this year and we all know about Siberia's toastiness.  So might an expectation be that Kara, Chukchi and Okhotsk will refreeze slowly and 2020 extent will have as wild a refreeze ride as 2016 did?  Or is that a low probability?
« Last Edit: November 30, 2020, 09:03:34 PM by Pagophilus »

El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #869 on: November 30, 2020, 04:47:37 PM »
.... and 2020's very advanced refreeze giving Hudson Bay sea ice area and extent above the 1990s average.....
and Greenland sea ice extent and area approaching the 1990's average.

Oh yes! We seem to have a forming new Cold Pole in the Greenland-Hudson area. It seems to be a trend since 2014 when the Chukchi started to be more open very late (results in warm Chukchi, warm Eurasia, cold NA, esp. Canada)...Talked about that in the atmospheric connections thread. This is 2014-20 winter temps vs 2006-13:

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #870 on: November 30, 2020, 06:31:38 PM »
.... and 2020's very advanced refreeze giving Hudson Bay sea ice area and extent above the 1990s average.....
and Greenland sea ice extent and area approaching the 1990's average.

Oh yes! We seem to have a forming new Cold Pole in the Greenland-Hudson area. It seems to be a trend since 2014 when the Chukchi started to be more open very late (results in warm Chukchi, warm Eurasia, cold NA, esp. Canada)...Talked about that in the atmospheric connections thread. This is 2014-20 winter temps vs 2006-13:
It is quite interesting that the rise of the Hudson-Greenland "cold pole" is also coinciding with substantial cooling of Saharan Africa. We may have the mechanism for "green Sahara" unfolding before our eyes. The collapse of a stable three-cell system is likely to have both negatives and positives, and I would assert that we may be witnessing one such positive (i.e., colder and wetter conditions in Northern Africa) now rapidly unfolding on an inter-annual basis.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #871 on: November 30, 2020, 09:30:35 PM »
I have a feeling that this year's freezing season might be the season of unpredicatability writ large.

We had the enormous extent rebound in late Oct early Nov.
Since then in most places refreeze is slow, with sea ice losses on occasion in the Central Arctic and the Kara..
We've had a late Hudson Bay refreeze start immediately followed by massive extent gains.
Greenland sea ice extent is really high.
NSIDC High Arctic sea ice extent lowest in the satellite record, but sea ice area in the peripheral seas only 6th lowest.
La Nina is supposed to favour a really cold Canada.

All this looking more and more like a WACC scenario, with cold very much on the Greenland and Canada land masses.

But then this Thursday looks really different over much of Canada, and later on Greenland may be warming up somewhat.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #872 on: December 01, 2020, 04:26:16 AM »
It is quite interesting that the rise of the Hudson-Greenland "cold pole" is also coinciding with substantial cooling of Saharan Africa.

Seeing as how I live there, I always check the anomaly maps to see how Sub-Saharan Africa is doing. And I have yet to see any anomaly map showing "substantial cooling" of Saharan Africa. I've not seen any maps showing any cooling of Saharan Africa. But perhaps you have? Please share.

EDIT: El Cid's post above does show a cold blob over south-central Sahara. So request for sharing withdrawn. But as Oren points out, this could be an intersting discussion held elsewhere.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 05:27:16 AM by binntho »
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oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #873 on: December 01, 2020, 04:36:11 AM »
Please share but not in this thread. The Sahara should be discussed elsewhere.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #874 on: December 01, 2020, 03:25:10 PM »
Here are a couple of forecasts from Environment Canada.
December - https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s
Jan- March 2021 https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

& From Russia
Russia - Jan-March -  https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts ****

The December forecast is for above average temperature, apart from a cold blob in Hudson Bay
The 3 month forecast for Jan-Mar 21 looks a lot colder especially in Northern / Central Canada- look at the really really cold blob in Hudson Bay.

But the Russian forecast is for above averge temps in early 2021 for Siberia.

Warmish December and horribly cold early 2021?


« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 06:19:45 PM by gerontocrat »
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #875 on: December 01, 2020, 04:29:56 PM »
I am not sure these seasonal forecasts are good for anything. As far as I remember their chance of coming true is not better than rolling a dice. 

I think looking at the average of the past years is at least as good as these:


oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #876 on: December 01, 2020, 05:45:33 PM »
AMSR2 area updates (using UH data by Wipneus):
* The Chukchi is slow going, though not at record territory with 2017 and 2019 bottom-leading.
* The Bering and Okhotsk are still asleep, a common behavior on this date but definitely not first our of the gate. If Bering doesn't wake up it could be at record  AMSR2 low in a week.
* Hudson Bay is quite ahead but despite expectations is still within the herd, with 2014 and 2018 top-leading.
* The Kara appears to be going in reverse, and is at record low territory (for AMSR2 data). Have we seen the freezing season maximum?  :o (Just kidding of course).

Click to enlarge.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 05:50:40 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #877 on: December 01, 2020, 06:23:02 PM »
I am not sure these seasonal forecasts are good for anything. As far as I remember their chance of coming true is not better than rolling a dice. 

I think looking at the average of the past years is at least as good as these:
If you are right about that, that's an awful lot of highly skilled time, ginormous computer power and money being thrown down the gurgler.

The Russians got it right about Siberia last year - but then again even The Farmer's Almanac gets it right sometimes.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #878 on: December 01, 2020, 08:24:27 PM »
I am not sure these seasonal forecasts are good for anything....
If you are right about that, that's an awful lot of highly skilled time...wasted...

I think I am right about this, though someone with more knowledge might refute me. I won't post more of it here, because it is somewhat OT here (though as many use these seasonal forecasts, maybe not so much).

Anyway, first pic is the skill of a simple persistence model (if you have an anomaly, you expect that to stay for the next month), second is ECMWF seasonal forecast skill (detrended!). Paper is from 2010. There is basically no forecasting skill in the detrended version. There is some skill in the normal (non detrended) version but that is mostly due to global warming: you need to expect warmer than average temperatures and you will be right most of the time. But that is no skill...

(Doblas-Reyes: seasonal prediction over europe)

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #879 on: December 02, 2020, 07:10:03 PM »
Here are a couple of forecasts from Environment Canada.
December - https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s
Jan- March 2021 https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

& From Russia
Russia - Jan-March -  https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts ****

The December forecast is for above average temperature, apart from a cold blob in Hudson Bay
The 3 month forecast for Jan-Mar 21 looks a lot colder especially in Northern / Central Canada- look at the really really cold blob in Hudson Bay.

But the Russian forecast is for above averge temps in early 2021 for Siberia.

Warmish December and horribly cold early 2021?

Hi Gerontocrat, the Russians are also forecasting heat anomalies over Canada from January to March. That is to say the reverse of what the Canadiens plans for this period. Am I wrong?
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #880 on: December 02, 2020, 07:33:10 PM »
Hi Gerontocrat, the Russians are also forecasting heat anomalies over Canada from January to March. That is to say the reverse of what the Canadiens plans for this period. Am I wrong?
No. you are not wrong.

My pure guess is that perhaps they have a better handle on trends in Russia than North America.
Maybe we might even remember next April to look back at the reality.
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Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #881 on: December 03, 2020, 12:01:30 AM »
Hi Gerontocrat, the Russians are also forecasting heat anomalies over Canada from January to March. That is to say the reverse of what the Canadiens plans for this period. Am I wrong?
No. you are not wrong.

My pure guess is that perhaps they have a better handle on trends in Russia than North America.
Maybe we might even remember next April to look back at the reality.

Could we make some bets  ;) ? Who Canadians or Russians make the best predictions? See you in April.  ;D
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #882 on: December 03, 2020, 11:54:34 PM »
amsr2 awi v103, atlantic side sep4-dec3. The west Spitsbergen current mostly keeping the ice at bay for now.
We are fortunate to have 2 active argo floats giving us an idea of the ocean data there recently.
3902107      3.9m temp -1.432, thermocline at ~101m on nov30
7900549      5.9m temp -0.26,   thermocline at ~95m  on nov27

added cmems lobelia sea surface foundation temperature
My Ocean :), very friendly.

SSTfnd definition:  http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/sst_definitions/   
« Last Edit: December 04, 2020, 10:28:35 AM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #883 on: December 04, 2020, 03:34:47 AM »
In the data thread, there is mention of high export via Greenland Sea and reduce freeze in Kara.

I cant remember where I read this (probably here) but isn't that one of the really bad signs that things are getting really, really bad?

And if my memory serves me well in this, are we about to experience a short burst of massive change?
(I am not a fan of linear changes in nature, it tends to do things in bursts rather than nice smooth downward trends.)

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #884 on: December 05, 2020, 12:49:13 PM »
New November record high for Siberia:
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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #885 on: December 05, 2020, 01:13:12 PM »
New November record high for Siberia:

I don't think these are Siberian temperatures. These are temperatures for 65N-90N, which include much more than Siberia.Your chart for example shows above average temperatures for 2016 which in reality was extremely cold in Siberia:

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #886 on: December 05, 2020, 01:18:50 PM »
I'm sorry, I didn't express myself clearly enough. The new record is for the Siberian quadrant in the 65-90N circle. Data is found here, I get monthly updates.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #887 on: December 05, 2020, 03:42:36 PM »
In that case, it is really no surprise, with the Siberian seas open for so long, venting heat into the atmosphere. Even then, it is a strong record. I wonder whether we have a new trend where these seas could be open even into December...

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #888 on: December 05, 2020, 04:36:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Winter has arrived in the Arctic! And it looks like Chukchi and Bering will finally start to cool down with this northerly setting in.
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #889 on: December 05, 2020, 05:44:19 PM »
Extent animation for the week.

Extent increased by 729,000 km² (81-10 avg 638,000km²)
When was the last time sea ice connected Greenland and Iceland.... and also, that is quite a blip of ice forming off of Iceland / I wonder if it is an error? HYCOM also shows it.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #890 on: December 05, 2020, 07:16:10 PM »
In that case, it is really no surprise, with the Siberian seas open for so long, venting heat into the atmosphere. Even then, it is a strong record. I wonder whether we have a new trend where these seas could be open even into December...
I'd agree, and it seems to me not 'whether' but 'when' to me, as to the Siberian Seas being open in December.  The Kara (and Chukchi if it counts as Siberian) are already mostly there, and the Laptev has started knocking on the door. 

Over the past 25 years or so, the early refreeze (Sept to Dec) has been progressively delayed and now takes place about one month later than it did around 1995 (Charctic graph below).  And the Arctic icecap has remained stubbornly wedded to the Canadian coast and Greenland ice sheet during the the minimum each year, so the Siberian side is likely to be the open water side for the foreseeable future. 

In 25 years, if current trends continue, December will be the new November in the Arctic (Dec 1 vs Nov 1 NSIDC comparison for this year below). Eyeballing the graph and map, I would guess the Siberian side (Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi) will probably be largely open at the start of Dec within 25 years.  If trends accelerate then in less time -- maybe in just a decade.  (And yes, I realize that simple linear extrapolations are dicey in these circumstances, but the decadal patterns do seem clear).
« Last Edit: December 05, 2020, 07:38:19 PM by Pagophilus »

interstitial

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #891 on: December 06, 2020, 06:18:42 PM »
There is massive inertia in the freezing and melting of the arctic and the climate imbalance for a year is small compared to seasonal variations. Area and extent may change dramatically in one year but volume is less likely to do so. The loss does not have to be linear it could accelerate but I don't expect a single year to experience massive volume loss. Otoh a large increase in open sea early in the season increases the imbalance dramatically.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #892 on: December 06, 2020, 08:10:44 PM »
<snip> that is quite a blip of ice forming off of Iceland / I wonder if it is an error? HYCOM also shows it.
Probably a coastal error problem. Ubiquitous with amsr2. polarview S1, dec6

comparison of 2020 with 2018 using amsr2-uhh, nov1-dec4
« Last Edit: December 06, 2020, 09:46:09 PM by uniquorn »

coelho

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #893 on: December 07, 2020, 09:32:28 AM »
Any clarification that it seems that around 16Dec the extent seems to be about the same for all projected years, no matter the spread before and after that date. If we wouldn't have had daily numbers and were just watching one day a year, not much difference was noted if that day was 16Dec.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #894 on: December 07, 2020, 12:42:34 PM »
When was the last time sea ice connected Greenland and Iceland.... and also, that is quite a blip of ice forming off of Iceland / I wonder if it is an error? HYCOM also shows it.

The ice gets close every year, but hasn't reached Iceland since the 80s I think.

-------------------------------------------

And to add to the Siberian records, here's another version.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

oren

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #895 on: December 07, 2020, 03:32:59 PM »
Any clarification that it seems that around 16Dec the extent seems to be about the same for all projected years, no matter the spread before and after that date. If we wouldn't have had daily numbers and were just watching one day a year, not much difference was noted if that day was 16Dec.
I would expect this has to do with the physical boundaries of the Arctic ocean, which tend to limit freezing at this time of year to a certain geographic region, give or take a few. In addition, the large Hudson Bay typically finishes freezing by this time. However, this is not an iron rule as can be seen for 2016.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #896 on: December 07, 2020, 03:47:05 PM »
Hudson Bay after a few days of extreme sea ice gains now on a bit of a go-slow.
Interestingly a complete East-West divide between open water and ice.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #897 on: December 07, 2020, 08:27:16 PM »
Quote
Interestingly a complete East-West divide between open water and ice.
What is the chant our cross-town rival high school cheerleaders shouted:
Quote
East is least and West is best.
I didn't realize they were talking about Hudson Bay ice.  I was so parochial back then!
 :o :) ::) :P
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #898 on: December 07, 2020, 10:12:41 PM »
Re Sea Ice proximity to Iceland, I compiled this historical thread a few years back :

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1938.msg108038.html#msg108038

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« Reply #899 on: December 09, 2020, 09:25:55 PM »
Large Arctic anticyclone is forecast to intensify and build over the Pole over the coming week.

Under its dome, temperatures are expected to dip below -30 C. This is roughly in the area that contributes most to the DMI N80 mean temperature.

That in itself should be nothing new. However in the last quarter of recent years it has been very rare for the DMI N80 graph to dip below the green 1958-2002 green line. Have to go back to 2015 to get below briefly.

If the forecast holds true, it is possible it may dip below by Dec 16th.