The 2020/2021 freezing season

[oren]

Welcome, nadir.

[Paul]

The 144h of EC 12h forecast (Feb 1) predicts an amazing pressure gradient across the basin driven by a 1061 hPa high

Will February bring some Cracks of Doom?

Cracks of doom!? There was all the hype in 2013 about the large cracks in the Beaufort sea and ice was very slow to melt in that region. Some argue the more cracks there is, the more ridging and thickening the ice gets.

I always tend to side on high pressure in winter is better for the ice than not.

[BornFromTheVoid]

seconded !


I think BornFTV has a 2020 caption on what I assume is this year's 2021 graphic ....... 


Thanks again.

Still not adjusted to the new year, d'oh!

[nadir]

The 144h of EC 12h forecast (Feb 1) predicts an amazing pressure gradient across the basin driven by a 1061 hPa high

Will February bring some Cracks of Doom?

Cracks of doom!? There was all the hype in 2013 about the large cracks in the Beaufort sea and ice was very slow to melt in that region. Some argue the more cracks there is, the more ridging and thickening the ice gets.

I always tend to side on high pressure in winter is better for the ice than not.

Right, I think so too.

I also would expect NH snow cover higher than average too but truly that’s not happening.

Anyway, about the cracks, just fun to watch if it happens again.

@Oren, thank you.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Contrasting the trends in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Baffin/St Lawrence region over the last 4 weeks. (click to play)

[SimonF92]

The 144h of EC 12h forecast (Feb 1) predicts an amazing pressure gradient across the basin driven by a 1061 hPa high

Will February bring some Cracks of Doom?

Cracks of doom!? There was all the hype in 2013 about the large cracks in the Beaufort sea and ice was very slow to melt in that region. Some argue the more cracks there is, the more ridging and thickening the ice gets.

I always tend to side on high pressure in winter is better for the ice than not.

Right, I think so too.

I also would expect NH snow cover higher than average too but truly that’s not happening.

Anyway, about the cracks, just fun to watch if it happens again.

@Oren, thank you.

Hi nadir

Tor made an interesting comment recently that cracks are actually good for the ice, you can find detailed discussion here;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.150.html

[gerontocrat]

I also would expect NH snow cover higher than average too but truly that’s not happening.

For North America that was true until 3? days ago and then - wallop.

If you look carefully at the snow map attached you will see that in the higher latitudes in most places snow thickness tends to be more than average. And this is the direction of travel predicted by most climate scientists. The warming climate pushes the snow line North and to higher elevations, but the climate is not only warmer but also wetter, so snow at high latitudes, including the Arctic Ocean itself will be higher - usually expressed as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).

But at the moment the big fat high over the Arctic Ocean (see attached) mostly prevents moisture bearing winds from low pressure systems getting into the Central Arctic - so no snow to act as an insulating blanket on the ice. If this high persists should be good for ice thickening in the main part of the central Arctic during this last half of winter ?

At least that is the story that seems right to me.

[gerontocrat]

Environment Canada says February is going to be colder than average - pretty much 100% probability for the CAA

[nadir]

Thank you Gerontocrat and Simon

[Sebastian Jones]

Environment Canada says February is going to be colder than average - pretty much 100% probability for the CAA

Awesome.
Oh well, the sun starts to provide some heat in February.
If  you close your eyes and concentrate.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Slow animation for the last week, slightly different styles this time.
(click to play)

[gerontocrat]

Environment Canada says February is going to be colder than average - pretty much 100% probability for the CAA

Awesome.
Oh well, the sun starts to provide some heat in February.
If  you close your eyes and concentrate.

And this is what Environment Canada forecast for the 3 months Feb March April. Interesting East West divide**.

No seasonal forecast from Russia at https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts
I sent them an email - will they answer?

**awaiting snorts of derision from one poster at least

[nadir]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 30^th, 2021:
     13,477,429 km², an increase of 49,399 km².
     2021 is 6^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

The correlation between extent at this time of the year and how bad the subsequent melting season was is basically null.

Also, the dispersion of all extent numbers (since the 2000’s) is relatively low. Geography/marine currents are the effective boundaries.

(Copying Juan C García’s graph below for context)

[gerontocrat]

I remember a year or two ago one of our posters suggesting a contrary relationship between the sea ice in the Okhotsk and the Bering Seas.

It goes like this - when northerly winds freeze the Okhotsk, eventually this tends to form a high pressure over the Okhosk. This in turn diverts the large low pressure systems that come up the Pacfic off the coast of Japan into the Bering instead of expending themselves in the Okhotsk. 
Relatively warm and wet air reduces sea ice in the Bering. Is something like that beginning to happen now?

I attach two graphs that highlight 2018-19 when this happened, and a couple of images from GFS.

[Freegrass]

HYCOM ice movement and thickness for the month of Januari.

[Niall Dollard]

I remember a year or two ago one of our posters suggesting a contrary relationship between the sea ice in the Okhotsk and the Bering Seas.

It goes like this - when northerly winds freeze the Okhotsk, eventually this tends to form a high pressure over the Okhosk. This in turn diverts the large low pressure systems that come up the Pacfic off the coast of Japan into the Bering instead of expending themselves in the Okhotsk. 
Relatively warm and wet air reduces sea ice in the Bering. Is something like that beginning to happen now?

NWS Alaska refer to a persistence of La Nina conditions in their latest 3 monthly outlook here :

There is high confidence that La Nina conditions will continue through March but is expected to weaken in April. Overall we still expect that the western Bering Sea will struggle the most to establish and thicken sea ice as the coldest air is expected to remain over the eastern Bering sea and the Alaska mainland.

[Pavel]

HYCOM ice movement and thickness for the month of Januari.

The thickest ice could be located in the Beaufort sea in summer. Not a safe place though

[El Cid]

HYCOM ice movement and thickness for the month of Januari.

The thickest ice could be located in the Beaufort sea in summer. Not a safe place though

The CAB will be fair game this summer. If the Siberian Seas melt out early like in 2020, then  BOE becomes a possibility

[uniquorn]

Cryosat2 SMOS merged sea ice thickness for comparison, oct22-jan29.
This shows the ice between the pole and the Fram Strait a little thicker than Hycom but also some apparent thinning north of Ellesmere as the thicker ice moves west. It's also interesting how the ice further along the CAA, near Banks Island repeatedly thickens and thins. Probably due to lift off from the coast and new ice forming in leads in the older MYI.
click 4.8MB

[BornFromTheVoid]

January Arctic sea ice extent over time.
Click to play

[Bill]

Hi
Long-time lurker here, finally got something to add to the conversation.

Some months ago now one of number mused as to when the month, year etc with the lowest extent was. Using the NSIDC extent data I have calculated for each multiple number of months the number of periods with a smaller extent than what I took for this example as 1st October.
A blank cell means the lowest extent is this freezing season.
Note that periods can overlap - eg 1 Dec-31 Dec, 2 Dec-1 Jan and 3 Dec-2 Jan form 3 periods.

I'm not sure what the periods with partial years tell us, except that we see the date of minimum becoming later until it reaches February 2020 which was obviously the end of a low streak

[uniquorn]

January Arctic sea ice extent over time.

extent on jan31?

A peek through the clouds at the Chukchi sea. https://go.nasa.gov/3jgmWJK
A possible opportunity for some quick refreeze perhaps. There is some very cold weather forecast over the next few days.

[oren]

Hi
Long-time lurker here, finally got something to add to the conversation.

Some months ago now one of number mused as to when the month, year etc with the lowest extent was. Using the NSIDC extent data I have calculated for each multiple number of months the number of periods with a smaller extent than what I took for this example as 1st October.
A blank cell means the lowest extent is this freezing season.
Note that periods can overlap - eg 1 Dec-31 Dec, 2 Dec-1 Jan and 3 Dec-2 Jan form 3 periods.

I'm not sure what the periods with partial years tell us, except that we see the date of minimum becoming later until it reaches February 2020 which was obviously the end of a low streak

Welcome, Bill. I took the liberty of copying a screenshot of your pdf, as it is not viewable directly on the forum.

(Click to enlarge)

[BornFromTheVoid]

extent on jan31?

A peek through the clouds at the Chukchi sea. https://go.nasa.gov/3jgmWJK
A possible opportunity for some quick refreeze perhaps. There is some very cold weather forecast over the next few days.

Average for the whole month.

[gerontocrat]

Winter came late.

When this freezing season is over I expect much to be said on how the maximum extent was high which puts another question mark on declining sea ice.  But if you look at the rankings (JAXA extent) in the table below a different story emerges.
Month   Rank in Satellite Record   
September           2   Actual  data
October               1   Actual  data
November             2   Actual  data
December             2   Actual  data
January 21            5   Actual  data
February 21         10   Estimate - from average daily change
March 21               9   Estimate - from average daily change

Freezing came late, the major change to high extents only really happening in the 2nd half of January. So a more subtle interpretation of what's going on is required rather than a simplistic look at maxima and minima, to which I admit my guilt.

ps: I put this in this thread as in this thread is often found a deeper analysis.

[Paul]

Whilst more ice can lead to more ice and less early dark ocean water, I don't think we can read too much in winter extents except they have declined but obviously at a much slower rate.

I'm more interested in the volume numbers and just relieved this winter is nothing like the 2016/17 shocker. Plus with high pressure more dominant recently and the foreseeable, volume numbers should improve and Siberian ice should be thicker than it was last year where it was very thin as we all saw.

[Aluminium]

January 19 - February 2.

2020.

[SimonF92]

Buoy velocity data appears to show that the ice in the CAB is at record high mobility, so even though the freezing season isn't spectacularly bad, I think Fram export is going to be a big problem this year

[oren]

Thanks Simon. Very interesting.

[uniquorn]

Buoy velocity data appears to show that the ice in the CAB is at record high mobility, so even though the freezing season isn't spectacularly bad, I think Fram export is going to be a big problem this year

CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) are hopefully incorporating buoy data into their neXtSIM-F model soon. Here is the latest 6hourly drift forecast from nersc (thanks to A-Team for the link) suggesting Fram export picking up by the 10th.

The recent high pressure has lead to fairly clear weather, allowing a comparison of suomi/npp brightness temp with ascat from jan23-feb2 (7MB)

Also a quick follow up on the Chukchi using true colour from worldview, jan30-feb3 (amsr2-uhh inset)

[Pagophilus]

NSIDC extent comparisons for Feb 2,   2012 vs 2020, 2016, 2012. 

[SimonF92]

Buoy velocity data appears to show that the ice in the CAB is at record high mobility, so even though the freezing season isn't spectacularly bad, I think Fram export is going to be a big problem this year

CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) are hopefully incorporating buoy data into their neXtSIM-F model soon. Here is the latest 6hourly drift forecast from nersc (thanks to A-Team for the link) suggesting Fram export picking up by the 10th.

The recent high pressure has lead to fairly clear weather, allowing a comparison of suomi/npp brightness temp with ascat from jan23-feb2 (7MB)

Also a quick follow up on the Chukchi using true colour from worldview, jan30-feb3 (amsr2-uhh inset)

Good to see the big-wigs are taking the buoy data seriously, im just surprised we werent brought in as executive consultants

[uniquorn]

lol. Correction:
CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) are hopefully incorporating buoy data into their neXtSIM-F model soon edit: evaluated the  neXtSIM-F model with buoy data.

https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2017-200/tc-2017-200-AC6-supplement.pdf
The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoys' trajectories, and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search-and-rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for a complete coverage of the observed IABP positions.

Clearer weather over the Chukchi Sea today showing the expected refreeze. Now, how thick can it get before the end of the season? Still too cloudy to see much over the Bering Sea.

https://go.nasa.gov/3azNh1g  Chukchi (slight contrast)

Wipneus UH AMSR2 3.125kn extent, Bering

added yesterdays view of ice features close to Wrangel Island. Largely due to the persistent anti-cyclonic winds. We should get corrected reflectance (True color) view of these over the next few days.  https://go.nasa.gov/2MY9aPB

A wider view of the Siberian side from today  https://go.nasa.gov/2YRuby5. Anti-cyclone forecast to continue, winds easing off north of NSI. 

[gerontocrat]

Buoy velocity data appears to show that the ice in the CAB is at record high mobility, so even though the freezing season isn't spectacularly bad, I think Fram export is going to be a big problem this year

CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) are hopefully incorporating buoy data into their neXtSIM-F model soon. Here is the latest 6hourly drift forecast from nersc (thanks to A-Team for the link) suggesting Fram export picking up by the 10th.

The recent high pressure has lead to fairly clear weather, allowing a comparison of suomi/npp brightness temp with ascat from jan23-feb2 (7MB)

Also a quick follow up on the Chukchi using true colour from worldview, jan30-feb3 (amsr2-uhh inset)

Good to see the big-wigs are taking the buoy data seriously, im just surprised we werent brought in as executive consultants

Cryosat shows a load of thick ice from NE Greenland to the Pole. Is this likely to exit via the Fram to its inevitable doom?
If yes, another reason to suspect a fragile CAB this coming melting season.

ps: I only charge 1,000 bucks a day to make coffee, look after the photocopier and wipe fevered brows.

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.php

[Freegrass]

ps: I only charge 1,000 bucks a day to make coffee, look after the photocopier and wipe fevered brows.

LOL Geronto!!! 

Fram export has been dismal this freezing season... I haven't seen the usual wind patterns this year that usually export a lot of ice...

Last year we had a HUGE export event before the melting season began... Will history repeat itself? Or are things too messed up in the upper atmosphere for this to occur?

[Freegrass]

I owe the A-Team a big apology... I should have known better than to disagree with them... 

It does seem the heightened salinity in the Chukchi sea is al due to land based release of salt, and not with the Alaskan coastal current..

MY BAD A-TEAM!
PLEASE COME BACK! 

[grixm]

NSIDC Data

High Arctic Sea ice area losses in the High Arctic for a fourth day, especially along the Siberian shore

- just a wobble or an event unfolding?

What can be causing this? It doesn't look like it's drift since the edges have not been contracting significantly, and the temperature is also relatively normal in the high arctic (there's a high pressure area causing a mildly above average blob, but even that it still way below freezing so it shouldn't cause any drop in area).

[Shared Humanity]

Cryosat shows a load of thick ice from NE Greenland to the Pole. Is this likely to exit via the Fram to its inevitable doom?
If yes, another reason to suspect a fragile CAB this coming melting season.

ps: I only charge 1,000 bucks a day to make coffee, look after the photocopier and wipe fevered brows.

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.php

That image, if accurate, is scary. The thickest ice is not hugging the Greenland coast which increases the likelihood that much of it goes marching off to the Atlantic to its doom.

[Comradez]

Not going to be much more ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence or off Labrador this winter if that pattern keeps up...

[uniquorn]

NSIDC Data
High Arctic Sea ice area losses in the High Arctic for a fourth day, especially along the Siberian shore
- just a wobble or an event unfolding?

What can be causing this? It doesn't look like it's drift since the edges have not been contracting significantly, and the temperature is also relatively normal in the high arctic (there's a high pressure area causing a mildly above average blob, but even that it still way below freezing so it shouldn't cause any drop in area).

A closer look at drift here. The area losses are not that large but there were strong winds across the Laptev feb2-4.

Update on Cryosat2 SMOS merged thickness oct22-feb4.

[uniquorn]

This is different. A large wind driven break up roughly following the 50m bathy contour around the ESS. It's been growing for the last 5 days, the head now at roughly 74N 174.
https://go.nasa.gov/36Rnxwq

A break up shaped like that is normally associated with an underlying current but my understanding is that the current there is not believed to be very strong.

Ice around Wrangel Island looking broken up too. Feb3-7 (click)

The full picture just came in. Siberian side, feb7

Maybe it won't look so bad with a bit of snow on it.

[uniquorn]

A closer look at the head of the break up traversing the ESS shows it progressing clockwise against the anti-clockwise drift.  https://go.nasa.gov/3tAizOa    feb4-7

I couldn't get many usable frames from rammb but it looks like a very large shear zone. Maybe weak ice that is drifting faster.
https://col.st/lVkVb  (It's too big for full zoom)

cmems modelling the break up further south where we would normally expect to see it, along the fast ice line.  https://tinyurl.com/y46o5h39

[uniquorn]

Update on the ESS/Laptev anomaly.
Firstly an overview using 11 days of ascat day28-38.

A focus on the movement west of Wrangel Island feb7-8

rammb bandI5, ess/laptev feb7-8

[VeliAlbertKallio]

This is exactly what the Russian nuclear submariners have been expecting: the hide and seek games with the boats between US and Russia will come to its end this year. The climatic consequences then materialising the next winter season with North Africa and Iberian Peninsula stealing Central Europes rains as the rain belts that usually run north of the British Isles will shift centred at the Strait of Gibraltar. The ice movement is following their sea ice dispatch modeling. I think we all could have seen this happening too for some time as the thick ice pack behind Greenland and Canada got ever smaller and in this I do not think Russian navy forecasters are geniuses but we are the fools.

Cryosat shows a load of thick ice from NE Greenland to the Pole. Is this likely to exit via the Fram to its inevitable doom?
If yes, another reason to suspect a fragile CAB this coming melting season.

ps: I only charge 1,000 bucks a day to make coffee, look after the photocopier and wipe fevered brows.

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.php

That image, if accurate, is scary. The thickest ice is not hugging the Greenland coast which increases the likelihood that much of it goes marching off to the Atlantic to its doom.

[El Cid]

The climatic consequences then materialising the next winter season with North Africa and Iberian Peninsula stealing Central Europes rains as the rain belts that usually run north of the British Isles will shift centred at the Strait of Gibraltar.

please, please, I asked before, but can you support it with any research?

[oren]

VAK's post was barely on-topic, if the discussion develops I will move it elsewhere.

[uniquorn]

amsr2-uhh view of the anomaly looks worse in the laptev but there is something disturbing about the ess break up. We'll see soon enough. The faux low concentration along the ESS coast occurred at the same time last year. It is similar to the surface features seen north of FJL/Svalbard. (discussed up thread)     feb1-8.

N Kara Sea. Note the crescent shaped floe top left. Lots of ice, alot of it drifting.
https://go.nasa.gov/2YWjkmI  feb7-9

[uniquorn]

speed gyre. https://go.nasa.gov/3aMuP5D  feb1-8
might need to change some constants in that Brittle-Bingham-Maxwell sea ice rheology model soon 
nullschool wind, feb1-8

[oren]

The problem lies at the end of this ice circulation, where the CAB mass presses against Greenland and some of it is exiting the Fram, as shown in the Ascat animation a few posts above. Given the blob of thicker ice identified by Cryosat in that region, I find this concerning.

[Freegrass]

HYCOM is showing that ice movement as well, but I don't see it going down to Fram. Instead it's being pressed against the SZ islands and the western Laptev coast. And the same thing is going on in the ESS. The ice is piling up there as well.

Last year the ice spun the other way, which left us with an early open Laptev and ESS. So if the ice doesn't make the same reverse spin, the Laptev and ESS could stay frozen for a lot longer this coming melting season because of a big pile up of ice.

Which is a good thing I presume?