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What will the national spread be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Trump by 2% or more
1 (2.1%)
Trump by less than 2%
3 (6.3%)
Biden by less than 2%
6 (12.5%)
Biden by 2-5%  [that is 2.0000 to 5.0000%]
10 (20.8%)
Biden by 5-8% [that is 5.0000% ...]
8 (16.7%)
Biden by 8-12%
16 (33.3%)
Biden by 12-16%
4 (8.3%)
Biden by more than 16%
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Voting closed: November 01, 2020, 07:11:03 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)  (Read 4429 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #100 on: November 11, 2020, 11:26:08 PM »
Without checking the facts, it looks as if you're both right.

Obama's 2012 margin would be bigger in percentage terms, Biden's 2020 margin bigger in vote count (more people voted).

So it's a win-win! Everybody happy?
Not the Republicans
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #101 on: November 12, 2020, 12:31:25 AM »
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #102 on: November 12, 2020, 12:50:24 AM »
From Wikipedia:

2012
Nominee           Barack Obama   Mitt Romney    
Popular vote      65,915,795       60,933,504     difference:  4,982,291
Percentage        51.1%              47.2%            difference:  3.9%

2020 (96% complete)
Nominee            Joe Biden          Donald Trump    
Popular vote      77,400,101        72,266,137     difference:  5,133,964
Percentage        50.8%               47.4%            difference:  3.4% 
(Difference is increasing as CA votes get counted.  NY too?)

Yup, Greylib, my source and Walrus's were both accurate. (I'm not surprised.) 
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #103 on: November 12, 2020, 01:16:05 AM »
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...

Electoral college could end up 306 to 232 which is 56.9% to 43.1% which would be 13.7% margin  ;) :P

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #104 on: November 12, 2020, 01:28:19 AM »
Thread title specifies popular vote, crandles.
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karl dubhe2

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #105 on: November 12, 2020, 02:46:18 PM »
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...

For me?   No, I'm not the one you should feel sorry for.  After all, I don't live in the USA.   I voted high because I had hope for the USA.  That hope is dead, sorry.   If 'we' should feel sorry for anyone it's the people who will have to live in the USA.   

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #106 on: November 12, 2020, 04:38:51 PM »
I feel sorry for the people on Earth whose lives are affected by the US.

I, too, "voted high because I had hope for the USA."  My 11.5-12.5 popular vote difference 'vote' ["12"] didn't manifest.  We're not as enlightened as I presumed we were.

By "enlightened" I mean being so aware of the present and future consequences of anthropogenically influenced climate weirding that voting for anybody who doesn't have an inclination to do something about it or the ability to receive enough votes to do much about it is a no-brainer don't-do-it.

Other people's definition of enlightened will differ.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #107 on: November 13, 2020, 04:00:53 PM »
Per AP with New York at 80% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 93% counted, the spread is now up to 3.5% and increasing:

Biden:  50.9%; 77,708,023
Trump: 47.4%; 72,439,067
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 09:51:15 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #108 on: November 15, 2020, 04:07:08 PM »
Per AP with New York at 81% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 96% counted, the spread is now up to 3.7% and increasing:

Biden:  51%; 78,662,167
Trump: 47.3%; 72,936,343
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #109 on: November 18, 2020, 04:27:44 PM »
Current 51.0 to 47.2 spread 3.8%

If remaining ~3.8m votes similar in % terms to last 3 million which were 59.4% to 37.9% then I project votes as 81.46m to 74.86m so 51.15% to 47.01% so spread of 4.14%

Who know which administration that will be? asked Trump

Umm ... Everyone but Trump it seems
and there are 81m reasons why!

AbruptSLR

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #110 on: November 20, 2020, 03:36:06 PM »
Per AP with New York at 84% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 98% counted, the spread is now up to 3.8% and increasing:

Biden:  51.1%; 79,685,131
Trump: 47.2%; 73,701,667
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WildFit

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #111 on: November 20, 2020, 06:00:59 PM »
Per AP with New York at 84% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 98% counted, the spread is now up to 3.8% and increasing:

Biden:  51.1%; 79,685,131
Trump: 47.2%; 73,701,667


51.1-47.2 = 3.9 so which of the numbers is incorrect or did i miss something ?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #112 on: November 20, 2020, 10:06:02 PM »
From the Cook Report (source provided so you can check my data), I get

Biden               Trump               Other
Votes               Votes                Votes
79,713,868      73,725,300       2,866,967
51.00%            47.17%            1.83%
      
B/T difference:  3.83%   

Biden's percentage went down.  I wonder if the Georgia recount numbers are involved.
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #113 on: November 21, 2020, 01:36:52 AM »

Biden's percentage went down.  I wonder if the Georgia recount numbers are involved.

I rather doubt that 51.1% figure coming between these figures

Biden %      Biden votes  Trump votes  Other votes
0.5100354092   79672363   73689996   2847115
0.5100660507   79720247   73724487   2849234


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #114 on: November 21, 2020, 05:00:38 PM »
From the Cook Report, I get
156,484,522 total votes and ...

Biden               Trump               Other
Votes               Votes                Votes
79,827,499      73,794,344       2,862,679  (hmmm, this 'Other' number went down  ??? )

51.013%            47.158%            1.829%
     
B-T difference:  3.855%   

Will it get to 3.90%?  Biden would need approximately 90% of 90,000 additional votes (or 80% of 125,000) to reach this milestone. 

To reach 4.00%, Biden would need approximately 90% of 300,000 additional votes (or 80% of 400,000) to reach this milestone. 
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #115 on: November 21, 2020, 07:21:34 PM »
Several thousand more votes counted (none for "Other") since this morning (my time).

Biden           Trump           Other
Votes           Votes           Vote
79,835,585   73,800,546   2,862,679   
         
51.014%           47.157%            1.829%   
B-T difference: 3.856%


So, if 14,288 changes the difference by .0009%, the US needs 2.4 million more votes (at that B/T ratio - 57% for Biden) to make the B-T difference 4.0%; only 734,000 votes to make the B-T difference 3.90%. 
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #116 on: November 21, 2020, 08:52:51 PM »

Will it get to 3.90%?  Biden would need approximately 90% of 90,000 additional votes (or 80% of 125,000) to reach this milestone. 

To reach 4.00%, Biden would need approximately 90% of 300,000 additional votes (or 80% of 400,000) to reach this milestone.

NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_marquee
says there is 2.95m more votes to be counted. 1.86m from New York state. So I am projecting 4.2% margin - 51.18%(rounded uo) to 46.97% (rounded down)

vox_mundi

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #117 on: November 22, 2020, 11:30:04 PM »
... edit: from America's Finest News Source ...

‘Your Honor, I’m Ready To Present,’ Says Giuliani Pulling Rotted Melon, Stray Cat Out Of Old Burlap Sack
https://politics.theonion.com/your-honor-i-m-ready-to-present-says-giuliani-pulli-1845716203

-----------------------------------------

Thx sidd
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 07:53:50 PM by vox_mundi »
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sidd

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #118 on: November 23, 2020, 05:59:20 AM »
Re: "most trusted news source"

Careful there. The official motto is "America's Finest News Source."

sidd

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #119 on: November 23, 2020, 06:45:05 PM »
An additional 27,086 votes counted (per Cook) since I last looked (a couple days ago).  74% went to Biden and 25% went to Trump (1% Other).  At this rate, about ½ million ballots will need to be counted for Biden to lead Trump by 4.00 points.  If there are 2.9 million ballots to be counted, this (74% to Biden) will lead to a 4.66 point difference.  Even at the 57% to Biden rate, with these 2.9 m ballots, Biden will end up leading by a spot over 4.0 points.  Keeping the NY ballots at 74% Biden and the rest at the 57% rate, the final point spread will be around 4.4.  So I think Crandles is on the right track.
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #120 on: November 23, 2020, 07:45:14 PM »
Using small numbers of votes reported, the percentages vary wildly eg your 57% to 74%. Hence I am using percentage over last 3m votes 59.97% to 36.91% which is much more stable eg last 660k votes reported Biden had 59.85%.

My projection seems to be drifting upwards slowly. Also yes, it is quite plausible that NY late reported votes will favour Biden more than the states that have reported last 3m votes. I haven't built this into my projection.

vox_mundi

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #121 on: November 24, 2020, 12:45:15 AM »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #122 on: November 24, 2020, 05:27:42 PM »
Cook reports 185,193 more ballots counted: 6% for Other!  65% for Biden (hmmm: right between the previous two figures (57% and 74%).  Crandles is smart to use a larger 'sample' to project with.  Nonetheless, 65% Biden for remaining 2.73 million ballots [derived from a number Crandles posted above] yields a (projected) 4.36 point spread.

The current point spread is 3.9.

I never realized before how long it took for some states to count ballots.  Maybe related to this:  the last time I voted in Canaan, New Hampshire, a town of 3,000+ people, the ballot consisted of five pages of races and ballot questions on photocopied 8½ x 11" paper (single sided); "Mark selected option with an "X".  After I voted I was asked if I was willing to volunteer after the poll closed to help count the votes.  Along with 20 or 25 others (c. 1% of the adult population), the pages were separated and a partner and I 'did' our question, with one of us reading the selected name and the other one of us tallying it (four sides of a square makes 4 and a slash makes 5, we were instructed).  We switched jobs half way through.  It was hard.  It was hard saying the right name sometimes ("Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Sabastion, Sabastion, Jones ...") and hard to mark beside the correct name sometimes.  (After three "Sabastions", moving back to "Jones" could be 'difficult', and after "Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Sabastion", the last "Sabastion" could be 'difficult', too.  If any race was close, a recount would have been in order.  We had our share of spoiled ballots (an "X" by each name) and "I meant to vote for Jones" which a computer would have missed.  I think most of us were finished around 1 am.  (I think my partner and I 'did' two races; some pairs did 3, but it might have been 3 or 4 per pair.  There were probably about 2,000 ballots cast.  [Canaan cast 2,052 votes in recent election.  Wikipedia says the adult population in 2010 was 3092.)
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crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #123 on: November 24, 2020, 08:54:47 PM »
Caught 4 recent updates to New York votes which have ranged from 65.3% to 74.8% for Biden with the total at 71.46% so it does look like these will come in at higher % than rest of states recently reporting.

Building this in, projected votes could have margin as wide as

Biden 81.75m votes 51.30% Trump 74.68m votes 46.86% so spread 4.44%
a win by 7.07m votes

(also switched to last 2.35m votes which are at 61.17% for Biden for projecting states other than NY. Ought to exclude NY state's votes from these but doubt it is significant but my projection could be slightly biased high now.)
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 09:04:42 PM by crandles »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #124 on: November 24, 2020, 10:37:57 PM »
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,071,710
Trump: 47.6%; 71,287,537

So with California only 88% reported the spread is now 3.2% and increasing.

Edit: I estimate that after California is finished counting Biden will lead Trump by over 7 million votes (this estimate includes consideration of the fact that other predominately blue states like New York and Illinois are also not finished counting).

It is interesting that my earlier estimate that Biden would lead Trump by over 7 million votes seem to closely match crandles' latest estimates :o
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #125 on: November 25, 2020, 10:34:37 PM »

Cook reports  290,645 more ballots counted (since my last post): 73% for Biden (hmmm: no longer just between the figures 57% and 74%.   Does this suggest it is mostly NY and CA ballots?  (3% of newly counted ballots were for Other.)

73% Biden for remaining 2.44 million ballots [derived from a number Crandles posted several days ago and subtracting Cook-reported 'new ballots counted'] yields a (projected) 4.6 point spread!  Going up!

The current point spread (per Cook) is 3.98.

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