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Poll

What will the national spread be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Trump by 2% or more
1 (2.1%)
Trump by less than 2%
3 (6.3%)
Biden by less than 2%
6 (12.5%)
Biden by 2-5%  [that is 2.0000 to 5.0000%]
10 (20.8%)
Biden by 5-8% [that is 5.0000% ...]
8 (16.7%)
Biden by 8-12%
16 (33.3%)
Biden by 12-16%
4 (8.3%)
Biden by more than 16%
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Voting closed: November 01, 2020, 07:11:03 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)  (Read 4432 times)

crandles

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2020, 08:07:20 PM »
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...

If so, perhaps they should decide ownership of the white House with pistols at dawn. A bonus would be that if one or both of them survive, they can be locked up for killing or attempting to kill the president.

It was self defense and you can't charge me, I'm the president and I give myself immunity. Aarrgghhh!

wehappyfew

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2020, 08:45:54 PM »

...

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?

You've presented evidence that voter fraud exists at very, very low levels. Handfuls. Not enough to affect a nationwide election.

You've claimed it could be "millions", but presented no evidence. Trump claimed the same thing, has zero convictions to show for it.

There are certainly isolated examples that can affect a local election. Not the topic of this thread. Impossible to sustain for long without being caught. Penalties are steep, not worth the risk unless you own the local law enforcement officials.

Why are Republicans usually the ones getting caught?

Who was the famous wit who said not all Republicans are stupid, but all stupid people are Republicans? Maybe a little harsh, but there's a grain of truth there. Even more so, the entitled elite who have gotten away with anything and everything their whole lives are more likely to be Republicans. They don't think the rules apply to them. Occasionally they find out that voting in two different states is illegal.

Why do Republicans whine incessantly about "widespread" voter fraud while simultaneously being unable to find, charge, and convict these "millions" of fraudulent voters even while controlling the entire criminal justice system?

The answer is that Republicans are not actually worried about widespread voter fraud. They are using it as cover to disenfranchise voters who are likely to vote Democratic. Simple as that. Every damn time. See Florida.  See Georgia, Texas, MS, AL, WI ... etc.

When Republicans control government, they make it harder to vote. These hardships disproportionately fall on Democratic voters, by design. This benefits the Republicans in power.

When Democrats control government, they make it easier to vote. This benefits the party that can get the most votes. Often that is Democrats.


The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #52 on: November 03, 2020, 09:08:53 PM »

...

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?

You've presented evidence that voter fraud exists at very, very low levels. Handfuls. Not enough to affect a nationwide election.

You've claimed it could be "millions", but presented no evidence. Trump claimed the same thing, has zero convictions to show for it.

There are certainly isolated examples that can affect a local election. Not the topic of this thread. Impossible to sustain for long without being caught. Penalties are steep, not worth the risk unless you own the local law enforcement officials.

Why are Republicans usually the ones getting caught?

Who was the famous wit who said not all Republicans are stupid, but all stupid people are Republicans? Maybe a little harsh, but there's a grain of truth there. Even more so, the entitled elite who have gotten away with anything and everything their whole lives are more likely to be Republicans. They don't think the rules apply to them. Occasionally they find out that voting in two different states is illegal.

Why do Republicans whine incessantly about "widespread" voter fraud while simultaneously being unable to find, charge, and convict these "millions" of fraudulent voters even while controlling the entire criminal justice system?

The answer is that Republicans are not actually worried about widespread voter fraud. They are using it as cover to disenfranchise voters who are likely to vote Democratic. Simple as that. Every damn time. See Florida.  See Georgia, Texas, MS, AL, WI ... etc.

When Republicans control government, they make it harder to vote. These hardships disproportionately fall on Democratic voters, by design. This benefits the Republicans in power.

When Democrats control government, they make it easier to vote. This benefits the party that can get the most votes. Often that is Democrats. 

Not sure what you are responding to, but was certainly not my post.  I never claimed that it was in the millions.  Several, perhaps hundreds of thousands maybe, but not millions.  I showed you thousands in just a few, select districts.  I doubt it was localized to just those few.  Image if similar numbers occurred everywhere.  It would number in the millions.  I do not have access or time to check every election.  But I have presented enough evidence of the few that I know that it could.

Of course it exists at the local level - all elections are local.  By that does not mean it cannot influence national results.  The 2000 election was decided by a few hundred votes.  With all the shenanigans that occurred in Florida, we will never know who actually carried the state.

My examples were from both parties.  Does that make them both stupid?  What about the elitist democrats who run our universities? 

Yes, Republicans make it harder to vote.  That cuts down on double voting and fraud.  Democrats want to make it easier.  Enough said.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #53 on: November 04, 2020, 02:07:25 PM »
Way, way to early to actually look, but here is the current popular vote count, per Time:

            Biden:  69,036,555 Votes (50.02%)
            Trump: 66,753,430 Votes (48.36%)

The spread is currently less than 2 points for Biden, but this will change.

I'm not going to 'win' this poll, though, that's for sure!  :o
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #54 on: November 04, 2020, 02:17:05 PM »
Well, I thought probably a bit below two, maybe a bit above, so I guess I didn’t do too bad.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2020, 12:51:28 AM »
Florida 2000

See Brooks Brothers Riot.

[...]


And here we go. Luckily Michigan is meanwhile called for Biden.




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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2020, 02:51:25 AM »
The spread has widened to 2.5 points.  It might get to 3.
Per Cook Political Report:
Biden 71,583,116 votes 50.4%
Trump 68,058,907 votes 47.9%
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2020, 03:34:15 AM »
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.
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Gerntocratis#1

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2020, 03:46:50 AM »
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.

He actually gained votes with every demographic except white males. Who woulda thought?

oren

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2020, 03:55:17 AM »
With the highest turnout in something like a hundred years, no wonder votes were gained.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2020, 04:36:16 AM »
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.

Of course.  With voting requirements loosened in just about every state, it was much easier for people to vote.  Consequently, it was not surprising that Trump received more votes than four years ago.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2020, 05:37:23 AM »
With the highest turnout in something like a hundred years, no wonder votes were gained.

I meant in percentage not total votes.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2020, 08:17:26 PM »
The following table is from today's electoral-vote.com blog (yesterday's polls).  Rasmussen is know to have a strong Republican lean.  Without Rasmussen's poll, the average difference is +10.3.

Currently the vote spread is Biden +2.7.  It appears that the polling average had a Democratic bias of +7.6 (without the Rasmussen poll.)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #63 on: November 06, 2020, 12:10:41 PM »
Little more than I expected for Biden, but not much.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #64 on: November 06, 2020, 04:49:21 PM »
From Cook Report
Biden  74,042,631   50.6%
Trump 69,763,002   47.7%

2.9% spread (and counting)

Quote
polling average had a Democratic bias of +7.6 (without the Rasmussen poll.)
7.4 now.  Come on, now ( ::) ), where are those postal-truck-loads full of Biden votes in Miami-Dade County?  That'll bring it down to 7 points or something.  Still horrible for the polling organizations!  [No, they will never find those trucks, and no one will prove they even existed, and there won't be throngs of angry disenfranchised voters there, either.  Have I started a new conspiracy, despite my attempt to debunk it in the same paragraph?]
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #65 on: November 06, 2020, 05:21:23 PM »
As a grumpy old gerontocrat I have to say the election shows why elections should not be between two grumpy old - gerontocrats. Our place is up in the gallery, pouring down scorn on you youngsters.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #66 on: November 06, 2020, 06:12:35 PM »
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in a nursing home or a cemetery.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #67 on: November 06, 2020, 06:27:34 PM »
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in a nursing home or a cemetery.
More worrying is the possibility that they'll be mentally unfit. I believe that anyone, of any age, in a decision-making role should be tested at least annually. By an independent physician, not an appointee. Yes, you have the 25th Amendment, but it requires invocation by the Cabinet, which can't be an ideal way to handle it. [Would Reagan have passed as fit?]

For the record, I'm only a few months short of Gerontocrat's great age. I feel very fit, physically and mentally, but I'd be quite willing to be tested if I were in a job where my decisions could damage people, or an entire nation.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #68 on: November 06, 2020, 07:07:37 PM »
On the other hand, assuming it's Biden for the poisoned chalice of the Presidency, a good chance that if he goes west in the next 4 years then Kamala Harris would be the president.

Just think of all those totally hacked off racists and misogynists having to swallow that - wouldn't it  be marvellous.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #69 on: November 06, 2020, 08:13:27 PM »
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in ... a cemetery.
I thought this was intentional - that this was the good news!  Why cannot more of these fellows follow in the footsteps of William Henry Harrison?
« Last Edit: November 07, 2020, 03:22:02 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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J Cartmill

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2020, 08:49:47 PM »
Biden’s popular vote margin in California 4.03 million  is amazingly close to his margin nationwide 4.1 million.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2020, 10:40:37 PM »
Biden’s popular vote margin in California 4.03 million  is amazingly close to his margin nationwide 4.1 million.
Wait...this means almost all of Biden's popular vote margin comes from just the state of California? He is tied in the other 49 states?
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2020, 10:48:51 PM »
No only are the essentially tied in the other 49 states, but the current vote count in the five contested states (NC, GA, PA, NV, and AZ) combined is:

Trump  10,613,832
Biden   10,613,328

Trump has a big lead in NC and looks to win the state.  Biden has a similar lead in NV and looks to win that state.  (Big leads compared to the other remaining states).  Biden has taken the lead in PA, and is a good position to win that state.  Biden has the lead in AZ, but the absentee ballot count is helping Trump close the margin.  Biden leads in GA by 1,500 votes with 8,000 absentee ballots outstanding and up to 9,000 military ballots remaining.  It could go either way, pending a recount.  Alaska will go to Trump.

All in all, I would rather be in Biden's position.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2020, 11:06:37 PM »
It means counting in the largest states (CA, NY) is very slow. Always has been. Many more votes for Biden are yet to be counted. Nobody cares because CA and NY are reliably Democratic, so there is no drama.

At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.

The Republican legislature of PA rejected a law to allow early counting of mail ballots. Due to COVID, and the expected huge increase in mail ballots, election officials wanted to move up the date counting starts.

PA Republicans didn't allow counting before election day, Trump Republicans say counting after election day is "fraud"


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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #74 on: November 07, 2020, 12:08:07 AM »
Quote
At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.
We didn't have so many mail-in ballots in 2016, did we? How long did it take then to get the popular vote? I remember Hillary conceding late Tuesday or wee hours Wednesday, am I misremembering?
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The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #75 on: November 07, 2020, 12:38:32 AM »
Quote
At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.
We didn't have so many mail-in ballots in 2016, did we? How long did it take then to get the popular vote? I remember Hillary conceding late Tuesday or wee hours Wednesday, am I misremembering?

You are correct.  The election was over late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning.  At the time they were virtually tied in the popular vote.  The addition votes that were counted during the following days (weeks?) gave Clinton her final edge.

wehappyfew

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #76 on: November 07, 2020, 12:53:36 AM »
Clinton conceded before many, many votes were counted. She was behind in both the EC and popular vote, but what mattered is that the swing states finished counting and Trump had very narrow wins in 3 states - WI, MI, and PA - that put him over 270 EC votes.

As CA and NY votes came in, she won the popular vote by 2+%. Biden is already ahead by 2+% with many, many votes yet to count. Even more so than 4 years ago due to the sorting of Dem/GOP into the mail/in-person-voting partisan difference.

We have more mail ballots because Trump told his followers that mail ballots were "fraudulent" while Dem voters greatly preferred mail ballots to standing in long lines with Trump voters not wearing masks. The usual pattern in all previous elections was that more GOPers voted by mail than Dems. That was strongly reversed this year, due to a pandemic coronavirus called COVID-19. You may have heard of it. Trump supporters think this virus is no big deal, don't wear masks. Dem voters listen to the scientists, wear masks, avoid crowds - like at polling places. Some states went to extraordinary lengths to make mail voting easier. PA had 10 times the normal mail vote.

Final popular vote margin? Who knows? More than it is now.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #77 on: November 07, 2020, 03:28:22 AM »
I may have heard of 'it', but I wouldn't dare mention it here.   ::) :-\
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #78 on: November 07, 2020, 03:31:07 AM »
Quote
The usual pattern in all previous elections was that more GOPers voted by mail than Dems.
Then wouldn't Hillary have had an exaggerated lead early in the counting, instead of a reduced one?
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #79 on: November 07, 2020, 03:52:25 AM »
Exaggerated lead due to GOP mail ballots counted early, as most were in 2016?

No, just the opposite.

The late counting of mail ballots is a new feature, courtesy of COVID. In 2016 the few mail ballots were counted quickly and easily, mostly on or before election day, depending on the state. Each state sets its own election laws and rules. Florida counts all the early vote and mail ballots FIRST. In 2016 this gave a slight boost to Trumps early return numbers there, but the total number was small, so not even noticeable.

Pennsylvania counts mail ballots LAST, but in 2016 there were only a few hundred thousand compared to 2-3 million this year.

Oregon has 100% vote-by-mail, has been that way for many years.

Clinton was ahead early in the evening in many of the eastern swing states. Many people went to bed thinking Clinton had won it. Late counted ballots, some of then mail ballots that were slightly tilted to GOP, erased the early Clinton lead.



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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #80 on: November 07, 2020, 01:58:55 PM »
Cook Report update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 votes   50.7%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 votes   47.6%

3.1% spread, at this point.

Somewhere I read that many of the 'called' states only have a part of their ballots cast - it's not just 'Pennsylvania'.  California, for example only has 66% of its vote counted; when the counting is complete there, Biden's popular vote lead will increase by maybe 3 million votes.  The national popular vote spread could pretty easily grow to 5 points, I think, or maybe even 5.01.  :)
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #81 on: November 07, 2020, 02:02:36 PM »
Well then, looks like I guessed wrong  :(
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #82 on: November 07, 2020, 02:10:20 PM »
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...
The Donald declared victory 2 days ago (in the press briefing where he told so many lies that at least 3 networks broke away from it 'in the middle').  I expect The Joe to declare victory 'soon'.  So, Tom, will we hear it?  ;)
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #83 on: November 07, 2020, 07:22:48 PM »
AAAAARRRRRGHH!!!!
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #84 on: November 07, 2020, 07:32:54 PM »
LOL
 
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #85 on: November 08, 2020, 07:31:55 PM »
I'll put this here, as it discusses popular vote margins and their implications for control of the government in future elections:

Quote
Within a very few years — indeed by 2024 — it’s going to be quite possible for a Republican presidential candidate to lose the election by ten or twelve million votes and still win the Electoral College. Within 20 years, states that represent 30% of the US population are going to control 70% of the Senate.

None of this is democracy in even a loose sense. This is white supremacy encoded as our fundamental constitutional law. (Claims that this election indicated that Republicans are making inroads among non-white voters are wildly exaggerated. Black voters still rejected them by something approaching ten to one margins, and the 30ish percent of “Latino” voters who voted for Trump shrinks drastically when you remove “Latinos” who very much consider themselves white, and will certainly be coded as white by pragmatic Republicans who realize that inventing more white people is critical to the GOP’s survival, even with the massive advantage provided to it by a Constitution that, under current conditions, is basically a roadmap to herrenvolk democracy).

The glass half full is that Joe Biden is going to end up with about 11 million more votes than any presidential candidate in history prior to this week. The glass half empty is that Donald Trump is going to end up with about four million more.

I’ll admit to falling victim to massive optimism bias: While I didn’t really think anything like a Hoover/Goldwater/McGovern style blowout is possible any more under contemporary American political conditions (this election was among other things a social science experiment in how many votes can a Republican presidential candidate get when the candidate is literally the worst person in the world), I did think it was possible that Biden would win the popular vote by something like 55 to 43 percent — that, after all, was a result that was well within the boundaries of most of the last national polls.

It’s going to end up more like 51 to 47 percent after all the votes are counted. 47 percent of the country that bothered to vote voted for Donald Trump. If Trump had demonstrated even the most minimal competence in handling the pandemic, he probably would have been re-elected.

Of course the difficulty with this counterfactual is that if he had done that he wouldn’t be Donald Trump: a huge portion of that 47 percent is literally voting for him because of his most loathsome qualities, so people who wonder what would happen if you had a GOP candidate who was a less stupid fascist have to deal with the difficulty that fascism is and indeed celebrates stupidity by definition. A less demagogic and more competent version of Trump is to a considerable extent a contradiction in terms, or at least we better hope so.

The path forward can be captured by one word: Georgia. That is the hope — that the demographics of urbanization can overcome both the massive structural advantage that Republicans have, and that can’t be changed short of a new constitutional order, and the fact that 47 percent of this country, more or less, is actually just fine with authoritarian ethno-nationalism, when it was presented to them in the most undisguised form possible.

From https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/11/a-sober-assessment

------------------------------

Me again:

Removing Trump is just a temporary relief of one symptom of our fundamental political problem - the oligarchic, neo-fascistic, white supremacist Republican party that has re-aligned American politics. Welding the southern Jim-Crow Democrats to the corporatists, the evangelical white Protestants, the white-wing Catholics, and the newest members - the lowIQ-anon crazy conspiracists.

This new coalition can't win free fair elections and demographics are trending against them, but the structural advantages of the Electoral College, the unrepresentative Senate, gerrymandering after the 2020 census, voter disenfranchisement, etc could put them back in full control very quickly.

The fight isn't over, it has barely begun. This election was a tactical victory, but not a strategic victory - it just delayed disaster.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2020, 11:40:20 PM »
I note Fox News doesn't show as many total votes as Cook Report, but Fox shows "% of vote counted" (or words to that effect - precincts reporting?).  California is up to 86%, New York is at 79%, New Jersey is at 77% and Alaska is at 50%.  Several states (&  DC) are in the low to mid- 90's. 

Cook Report update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 75,938,488 votes   50.7%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 71,176,368 votes   47.6%
Their published percentages are unchanged, however.  Still a 3.1 point spread.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #87 on: November 09, 2020, 04:39:48 PM »
Strange:  Biden lost some votes!

Cook Report update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 75,938,488 75,624,127 votes   50.7% 50.6%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 71,176,368 71,225,078 votes   47.6% 47.7%
Their published percentages changed - 2.9 point spread.

Wikipedia has slightly fewer votes counted but the same percentages:
Joe Biden         75,551,684 votes   50.6%
Donald Trump   71,189,789 votes   47.7%

Tomorrow is the day I said we'd call 'final'.  I'll certainly look, but if some states have lots of precincts not reporting, we'll have to look again later, as either a 'confirmation' or 'we threw mud at the wall and something stuck'.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #88 on: November 09, 2020, 04:47:43 PM »
Per the Associated Press this morning

Biden:   50.7%; 75,470,075
Trump:  47.7%; 70,962,034
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #89 on: November 09, 2020, 06:21:48 PM »
2.9 to 3 percent then?
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #90 on: November 09, 2020, 09:37:00 PM »
2.9 to 3 percent then?

Somewhere in that range, as of early this morning, subject to change in the future.

Edit, Per Associated Press, this afternoon:

Biden:   50.7%; 75,644,360
Trump:  47.6%; 71,055,785

So the AP currently has a 3.1% spread ;)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 09:42:24 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #91 on: November 09, 2020, 09:51:02 PM »
I was horribly wrong in my prediction of nearly 15%.

I'm still shocked that nearly 50% of the voters wanted to continue with the circus.  Well, more disturbed than shocked.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #92 on: November 10, 2020, 12:31:24 AM »
I suggested I'd use Wikipedia, if possible...

                         Biden               Trump
Popular vote    75,677,793    71,264,360
Percentage    50.6%            47.6%

3.0% spread.  The webpage says 95% votes counted as of Nov. 9, 2020, 2:07 p.m. EST

(I was busy all morning)

Several posters claimed "2-5" range in posts.  You are winners!  You get the kudos!
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #93 on: November 10, 2020, 12:53:42 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #94 on: November 10, 2020, 01:46:24 AM »
I voted for 2-5% for Biden. Hopefully it should lean towards 5% and get him the electoral college.
Not too bad. My confidence was low and I am glad it turned out the way it did, although I am disturbed by what it signals.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #95 on: November 10, 2020, 01:57:54 AM »
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,071,710
Trump: 47.6%; 71,287,537

So with California only 88% reported the spread is now 3.2% and increasing.

Edit: I estimate that after California is finished counting Biden will lead Trump by over 7 million votes (this estimate includes consideration of the fact that other predominately blue states like New York and Illinois are also not finished counting).
« Last Edit: November 10, 2020, 03:55:33 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #96 on: November 11, 2020, 09:28:07 AM »
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,983,892
Trump: 47.5%; 71,915,939

So with New York only with 80% of votes reported, the spread is now 3.3% and increasing.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #97 on: November 11, 2020, 05:23:50 PM »
Biden’s Popular Vote Margin Now Bigger Than Obama’s

November 10, 2020 at 11:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

Quote
The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 5,060,175 votes, Ballot Access News reports.

That is a larger number than the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 which was 4,982,296 votes.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #98 on: November 11, 2020, 06:38:44 PM »
Biden’s Popular Vote Margin Now Bigger Than Obama’s

November 10, 2020 at 11:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

Quote
The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 5,060,175 votes, Ballot Access News reports.

That is a larger number than the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 which was 4,982,296 votes.

Obama won in 2012 by 3.9% (51.1 - 47.2).  Biden's lead is currently 3.3% (50.8 - 47.5).

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #99 on: November 11, 2020, 11:10:21 PM »
Without checking the facts, it looks as if you're both right.

Obama's 2012 margin would be bigger in percentage terms, Biden's 2020 margin bigger in vote count (more people voted).

So it's a win-win! Everybody happy?
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