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Poll

What will the national spread be between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Trump by 2% or more
1 (2.1%)
Trump by less than 2%
3 (6.3%)
Biden by less than 2%
6 (12.5%)
Biden by 2-5%  [that is 2.0000 to 5.0000%]
10 (20.8%)
Biden by 5-8% [that is 5.0000% ...]
8 (16.7%)
Biden by 8-12%
16 (33.3%)
Biden by 12-16%
4 (8.3%)
Biden by more than 16%
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Voting closed: November 01, 2020, 07:11:03 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)  (Read 4138 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: October 19, 2020, 08:11:03 PM »
Recent polls show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 6-13 points (I've heard of bigger spreads).  What will be the spread after all most ballots are counted?  Lets give the states 6 days to count - so, effective Nov. 10 (morning in the eastern US).  (Final counts may take weeks longer, but it won't change the big picture, or so I hope!).

You may not change your vote!

This poll closes a couple days before Election Day.

Historical examples:
  • 1804 - Thomas Jefferson over Charles Pinckney - 46 points:  Jefferson received 72.8% of the popular vote while Pinckney received 27.2%
  • 1860 - Abraham Lincoln over 'several' - 10 points over Stephen Douglas, 22 points over John Breckinridge, 17 points over John Bell - all received electoral votes
  • 1864 - Abraham Lincoln over George McClellan - 10 points
  • 1912 - Woodrow Wilson over Teddy Roosevelt - 15 points - 19 points over '3rd' party candidate William Taft
  • 1928 - Herbert Hoover over Al Smith - 17 points
  • 1932 - Franklin Roosevelt over Herbert Hoover - 17 points
  • 1936 - Franklin Roosevelt over Alf Landon - 37 points
  • 1964 - Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater - 23 points
  • 1972 - Richard Nixon over George McGovern - 23 points
  • 1980 - Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter - 10 points
  • 1984 - Ronald Reagan over Walter Mondale - 18 points
  • 1992 - Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush - 6 points - 24 points over '3rd' party Ross Perot
  • 2000 - Albert Gore over George W. Bush - 0.5 points - Bush won with electoral votes
  • 2008 - Barack Obama over John McCain - 7 points
  • 2016 - Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump - 2 points - Trump won with electoral votes

You enter the 'real' [still virtual] sweepstakes if you post a predicted spread before this poll closes.  You win if you are closest to the Nov. 10 tally with the smallest spread: ties go to the earlier (earliest) poster that was 'most' correct (smallest spread).  I'm guessing Wikipedia will update the numbers as they come in.  The winner gets kudos.  We get a corporate 'win' if the poll's most selected option covers the actual outcome.

More rules:
If you post more than one 'exact spread', only the last post counts!  An unspecified decimals spread will be deemed the spread rounded to the nearest whole number (so, "a tie" means the actual spread is between +/- 0.5000%) You could go for "Trump by 0-1" (meaning Trump by 0.0000 to 1.4999), "Trump by 1-3" (wider spread of 0.5000 to 3.4999) or "Biden from 1.2000 to 1.7000" (narrower spread).  "Biden will win" would be a very broad spread.  For clarity's sake, the spread is between portions of the total vote, not between portions of the sum of Trump and Biden votes.  If the courts throw out a state's ballot count, we don't care: we'll keep 'em.  If Trump 'cancels the election', we'll see what Wikipedia says the vote count is/was on Nov. 10 ... 
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Paddy

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 09:58:22 PM »
I went for 5 to 8, although the polls say 9. But that seems like too much to hope for.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 10:08:27 PM »
Biden by 8 to 12 points

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 10:54:13 PM »
A co-worker asked me for a number ("none of this 'range' stuff").  I said "12".  She said "16".  A few days ago, a respected collector-of-non-partisan-political-polls's blog wrote "7% or so".
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2020, 11:19:14 PM »
I'm in the UK, so can't vote. It WILL affect us, though. Which is why I'm paying attention to the race.

I've voted 2-5%. I think it'll be more, but the Republicans have the better lawyers. I expect to see a lot of counts stopped and a lot of votes thrown out.
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The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 02:40:49 PM »
I voted 2-5%, but I think the electoral college will be closer.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 08:12:39 PM »
I reckon 5.5% for Biden to have just enough votes so that the Electoral college won't be able to give it to Trump.

But the Electoral College numbers will be so close that Trump will not be able to resist sending tweets that inspire some militias do some really stoopid things, and some people get hurt and some die.

But what a mess to sort out, especially if the Democrats don't get the Senate.
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Freegrass

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 08:42:39 PM »
I voted Biden by 8-12%, but I'm not all too sure about that...

If it's not that big of a lead nationally, Americannot is more insane than I could ever imagine...

Religious extremism + identity insecurity + inadequate education and Facebook and Putin, could still give Trump a win...

But somehow I hope America is better than that. So I think it'll be a wipeout.

But don't underestimate the stupidity of idiots!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

karl dubhe2

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2020, 08:29:35 PM »
I voted the 12-16 range, iirc.  I'd like to think that the margin for Biden will be over 15% of the total popular vote.  Of course, what matters are the state races, cause that's how their electoral college works.

The high turnout in the early voting gives me some pleasant feelings about the future.


longwalks1

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 04:42:11 PM »
Diebold - Premier Election systems.   Voting is just a cog in the machine.   In the end it is the electoral college.  Going to be a mess.   

I sent money to a retired nurse running for the Iowa house, I will vote this year.  Everybody who calls I let them know in no uncertain terms I would not vote for criminal trump or war-mongering Biden.  After the drive around Walter Reed and the taking off of the mask and the delusional "Maybe I am immune" - I will vote against trump.   A cousin was "silly and she and husband went to Israel and then a Nile river boat cruise early on.   10 days intubated.   



I am back living in a county that voted in a sizeable  majority for extremely racist Steve King, I am keeping my head down.  In 2014 I was watching CNN in Winnipeg with 2 co-workers, I had 21 co-workers at that house, all but I had been born in Africa.   They were astounded at a statement by Steve King, and some of my co-workers studied up on Steven King.

Allen Berg was assassinated by neo-nazis in 1984 and David Lane was a part of that assassination.  David Lane coined the "14 Words", an usOa-ized distillation of Mein Kampf in my view while in prison.  It is used quite a bit by racists north of the Rio Grande.   

Going a bit north, Faith Goldy has  recited in public the "14 Words" several times around her attempt to be the Mayor of Toronto Ontario.   

Steven King, a US Representative endorsed her campaign up in Canada. It is quite rare for any official elected to US house or Senate to endorse people running in another country, but Steve King did.   But any time I post on Facebook or talk about how racist Steven King is, people who say they are not racist say he was misquoted.     

Well, Steve King was finally let go from the House of "Representatives"   where he started in 2002 via not being allowed to run as a Republican this year.    He has consistently polled over 60% since starting to represent Winnebago county. 

This was the seat held by Berkley Beddell, probably the most involved in usOfa House efforts to reduce nuclear weapons in the 80's and 90's.   It is a long way to January and voting will not save us in the usOfa.

 


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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 11:48:18 AM »
I voted Biden by 2% figuring "shy Trump voters" but Biden might get more than that, so if it is 2-5% I will not be surprised.
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oren

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 12:46:53 PM »
I voted for 2-5% for Biden. Hopefully it should lean towards 5% and get him the electoral college.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2020, 02:06:23 PM »
The following table is from today's electoral-vote.com blog (yesterday's polls).  Rasmussen is know to have a strong Republican lean.  Without Rasmussen's poll, the average difference is +10.3.
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The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2020, 03:28:19 PM »
In the 2016 election, IBD/TIPP was the only pollster to correctly predict the outcome; both in the electoral college and overall.  There spread is currently 5%, up from 3% a month ago.

FrostKing70

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2020, 06:48:17 PM »
I vote 8-12%.  I can't find the article today, but saw one earlier this week that indicated even a 8% popular vote margin is not enough to ensure an electoral college win.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2020, 07:52:46 PM »
I vote 8-12%.  I can't find the article today, but saw one earlier this week that indicated even a 8% popular vote margin is not enough to ensure an electoral college win.

No one has ever lost when they had an 8% vote margin.  In fact, the largest margin in the popular vote to lose in the electoral college was Clinton in 2016, and that was only 2%!  The only election in which a candidate won the popular vote by more was 1824, when no one received a majority, and the house had to decide the outcome.  In the other elections (1888, 1960, and 2000), the popular vote was within 1%.  In fact, the median margin of victory in all elections is 8.5%, so I would state confidently that anyone winning the popular vote by 8% will win the presidency.

Florifulgurator

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2020, 10:51:07 AM »
I clicked 12-16% yesterday. That's more than the polls - but the long early voting lines suggest a huge disproportionate voter turnout on the Biden side. First I thought I might be too optimistic and the early voter lines were overhyped, but now here is this:

Quote
Texas Leads Nation In Early Voting At 8.5 Million Cast – 94% Of 2016 Turnout
[...]
Texas trails only California in total votes cast by 30,000 – though California has over 10 million more people – but leads the nation in percent of 2016 turnout, ahead of Hawaii at 87%, Montana at 86%, New Mexico at 83% and Georgia at 82%.
[...]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/29/texas-leads-nation-in-early-voting-at-85-million-cast--94-of-2016-turnout/
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 11:29:12 AM by Florifulgurator »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2020, 11:13:24 PM »
About 18 hours to vote in the poll above or refine any prediction in these comments.  Think of it this way:  you won't lose any money if you guess wrong here!

Texas and Hawaii, by the way, surpassed their total 2016 vote yesterday, per NYT.  That is impressive!
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vox_mundi

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 01:37:51 AM »
In a free and fair election, I would expect a landslide for Biden, unfortunately, we don't live in that sort of democracy.

Since this is a measure of actual votes (not electoral votes), I'm leaning towards a 2-5% win by Biden.

I'm an optimistic cynic ...

Remember ... Past is Prologue ...

---------------------------------------

Expert: Georgia Election Server Showed Signs of Tampering (2016)
https://apnews.com/article/39dad9d39a7533efe06e0774615a6d05

BOSTON (AP) — A computer security expert says he found that a forensic image of the election server central to a legal battle over the integrity of Georgia elections showed signs that the original server was hacked.

The server was left exposed to the open internet for at least six months, a problem the same expert discovered in August 2016. It was subsequently wiped clean in mid-2017 with no notice, just days after election integrity activists filed a lawsuit seeking an overhaul of what they called the state’s unreliable and negligently run election system.

The expert determined that computer logs — which would have been critical to understanding what might have been altered on or stolen from the server — only go back to Nov. 10, 2016 — two days after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. Two years later, Brian Kemp won the Georgia governor’s race by a narrow margin over Democrat Stacey Abrams.

Kemp oversaw Georgia’s elections during both races as secretary of state. Election administration was handled at Kennesaw State University by an outfit that Kemp’s office dismantled after the server-wiping incident.

------------------------------------------

Researchers Assembled over 100 Voting Machines. Hackers Broke Into Every Single One.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/09/defcon-2019-hacking-village/

A cybersecurity exercise highlights both new and unaddressed vulnerabilities riddling US election systems

Report: https://media.defcon.org/DEF%20CON%2027/voting-village-report-defcon27.pdf

“Once again, Voting Village participants were able to find new ways, or replicate previously published methods, of compromising every one of the devices in the room,” the authors wrote, pointing out that every piece of assembled equipment is certified for use in at least one US jurisdiction. The report’s authors, some of whom have been involved with election machine security research going back more than a decade, noted that in most cases the participants tested voting equipment “they had no prior knowledge of or experience” in a “challenging setting ” with less time and resources than attackers would be assumed to marshal.

Ultimately, the report notes flaws that have been acknowledged for years.

“As disturbing as this outcome is, we note that it is at this point an unsurprising result,” the authors conclude. “However, it is notable—and especially disappointing—that many of the specific vulnerabilities reported over a decade earlier…are still present in these systems today.”

----------------------------------

Senate GOP Blocks Three Election Security Bills (2020)
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/482569-senate-gop-blocks-three-election-security-bills

----------------------------------

Did Anonymous Stop Rove From Stealing the Election?(2012)
https://www.salon.com/2012/11/20/did_anonymous_stop_rove_stealing_the_election/

Short answer: Yes!

-----------------------------------------

Greg Palast: Ethnic Votes Stolen in Crucial States (2016)
https://www.gregpalast.com/ethnic-votes-stolen-crucial-states-help-fix-us-election-trump-reveals-greg-palast/

... Trump’s increasing hysteria about vote rigging served as the ultimate smokescreen for a Republican systematic denial of hundreds of thousands of crucial votes in the name of preventing fraud. (Crosscheck fiasco)

... This inherent bias results in an astonishing one in six Hispanics, one in seven Asian-Americans and one in nine African-Americans in Crosscheck states landing on what Palast dubs “Trump’s hit list.”

... Palast’s investigators calculated 1.1 million people, many spread over crucial swing states were deprived of their right to vote last Tuesday. (2016)

------------------------------------

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/elections/ballotboxbarriers/trump-reshaped-courts-lawsuits-limit-voting/

... Leaders of some large corporations like Blackstone and Charles Schwab are bankrolling the legal fight to keep people from voting, and some of the cases are being heard by judge. (hand selected by Koch Bros) that were appointed by Trump and confirmed by a Republican Senate that has been almost singularly focused on packing the judiciary with conservatives after holding positions vacant during the Obama administration.

--------------------------------

Texas Republicans Ask Federal Judge to Throw Out 117,000 Legally Cast Ballots (2020)
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.amp

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out at least 117,000 ballots cast in Harris County, a heavily Democratic area that has experienced an unprecedented surge in early voting this month. The brazen effort to undo legally cast ballots in a diverse, populous county is an eleventh-hour attempt to diminish Joe Biden’s chances of carrying the swing state on Nov. 3. Republicans claim that Harris County’s use of drive-thru voting violates the U.S. Constitution, requiring the judge to throw out every ballot cast this way—more than 117,000 as of Friday. This argument is outrageous and absurd. But the case landed in front of U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan conservatives in the federal judiciary. Democrats have good reason to fear that Hanen will order the mass nullification of ballots as early as Nov. 2, when he has scheduled a hearing.

-------------------------------------------

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291631.html#msg291631

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291585.html#msg291585

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291360.html#msg291360

--------------------------------



-------------------------------

... and that barely scratches the surface
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 02:17:06 AM by vox_mundi »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 08:44:17 PM »
48 brave souls!  Now the waiting (or actual voting for some).

CNN reports recent national polls have spreads of 8 to 12, with an average a spot over 10 points.  Lots more (older) polls at the link.
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The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 11:30:07 PM »
48 brave souls!  Now the waiting (or actual voting for some).

CNN reports recent national polls have spreads of 8 to 12, with an average a spot over 10 points.  Lots more (older) polls at the link.

Funny how they neglected to include the three most recent polls.  JTN a week ago had Biden +7, USAToday least week was also Biden +7.  IBD (which correctly called the 2016 election) just released their last with Biden +5.  So, the most recent polls have an average of Biden +6.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 07:01:08 PM »
BBC yesterday lists three Oct. 31 national polls.  (Oct. 30 has two, by 2 of the 3 Oct. 31 pollsters.) More polls at the link.  (screen shot below)

Yahoo a few minutes ago (Mon, November 2, 2020, 12:40 PM EST) posted
Quote
• Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. The survey of 1,501 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

• Biden +10: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed the former vice president with a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

One poll is in both bits of coverage.
Average of 10, 6 and 9 and 10 is 8.75
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 09:08:21 PM »
This could be a very close election.
I have missed voting twice in my life. The first time was an off-November election when I was in college in the late Seventies. I had exams that day. I did not have a car or a license or a ride. I could not get to my polling place in Maple Heights. My college was CWRU in Cleveland. I could not get an absentee ballot because I was still in Cuyahoga County that day.
The vote was tied and the candidate I would have voted for lost the coin toss.
Even though the popular vote across the nation does not decide the POTUS (as we learned in 2016), your vote could decide the winner in your state and thus your electors...in fact it is more likely because the voting population is smaller.

Every.
Vote.
Counts.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 09:56:32 PM »
I expect high turnout overall. 70% of the number of 2016 voters have already voted. I voted the day I got my ballot over a week ago.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 10:31:23 PM »
BBC yesterday lists three Oct. 31 national polls.  (Oct. 30 has two, by 2 of the 3 Oct. 31 pollsters.) More polls at the link.  (screen shot below)

Yahoo a few minutes ago (Mon, November 2, 2020, 12:40 PM EST) posted
Quote
• Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. The survey of 1,501 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

• Biden +10: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed the former vice president with a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

One poll is in both bits of coverage.
Average of 10, 6 and 9 and 10 is 8.75

RCP lists three polls released on Nov. 1.  Rasmussen (known Rep. bias) at Biden +1, Quinnipiac (known Dem bias) at Biden +11, and IBD/TIPP at Biden +3.  The average of 1, 3, and 11 is 5.0.


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2020, 10:34:41 PM »
I once read a letter to the editor saying voting should be required by law, with a fine for failure to vote.
Does this sound reasonable to anyone?
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 11:38:44 PM »
Yes Tom, it’s called compulsory voting and many countries have it.
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2020, 11:45:54 PM »
I don’t know about forcing people to vote if they don’t want to. What’s to stop them from just voting at random?
If you can’t be bothered to vote without force forcing a vote could just make things worse.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 12:16:07 AM »
I don’t know about forcing people to vote if they don’t want to. What’s to stop them from just voting at random?
If you can’t be bothered to vote without force forcing a vote could just make things worse.

Entirely true.  On the other hand, compulsory voting would thwart most voter suppression efforts.  I think that benefit far outweighs the adverse effects.

oren

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 12:21:55 AM »
Easy, give anyone who votes a $100 bonus for their efforts. Voter participation will be much higher.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 12:42:18 AM »
Easy, give anyone who votes a $100 bonus for their efforts. Voter participation will be much higher.

I think that is better than making it compulsory.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 06:36:10 AM »
The USA is rated as a flawed democracy.

Until they address the many issues in their electoral process they will only continue to fall down the democracy rankings .

I voted a few weeks back in New Zealand's  elections.
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Polling places are opened every where here including large supermarkets, shopping malls, local schools, library's and community centers . Voting starts two weeks before the election to make it easy and stress free to fit  into your schedule .
I can not imagine a place that backwards that you have to queue for hours just to vote .
USA thinks they have freedom when they don't even know what freedom is.

 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 12:19:14 PM »
Quote
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Name and address widely available from phone book or online equivalent.
If someone get your birthday (hacking, knowing personally, whatever) is there anything to prevent them from voting in your name before you get a chance to?
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oren

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 03:04:24 PM »
I Israel an official ID is required for voting, or the state-issued passport. Everyone must get an official ID anyway, starting at 16. For some weird reason the US doesn't have an official ID with photo (am I correct?). If not for the ID requirement, I can imagine lots of shenanigans with people voting in your stead. Polling stations are mostly opened in elementary schools, which are in every neighborhood, and you can also vote in other polling stations if you give the excuse the you are unable to get to your own station. Absentees on official government service (soldiers, diplomats) can vote in double envelopes, but other absentees abroad cannot vote.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 03:36:53 PM »
I Israel an official ID is required for voting, or the state-issued passport. Everyone must get an official ID anyway, starting at 16. For some weird reason the US doesn't have an official ID with photo (am I correct?). If not for the ID requirement, I can imagine lots of shenanigans with people voting in your stead. Polling stations are mostly opened in elementary schools, which are in every neighborhood, and you can also vote in other polling stations if you give the excuse the you are unable to get to your own station. Absentees on official government service (soldiers, diplomats) can vote in double envelopes, but other absentees abroad cannot vote.

The Democratic party has resisted ID requirements for voting for years.  The argument was that a larger number of potential Democratic voters lack proper ID for voting.  While valid in the past, this argument becomes less consequential as the years pass.  In reality, extremely few voters lack proper ID, and even those could get a valid state voters card if they so chose.  Opponents have claimed that it is easier to cheat without voter ID requirements.  This is certainly true.  How much effect this may have on the outcomes is unknown.  Voter fraud is rather hard to prove after the fact.  Fraudulent absentee is the most common voter fraud occurring today, and voter ID would only combat that issue slightly.  Still, it would help.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 03:56:09 PM »
IIRC you don't have to have ID, but life is a lot easier if you do.
Everybody uses driver's licenses. I think you can get a special ID card if you can't pass the driver's test.
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colchonero

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 03:58:31 PM »
Why wouldn't anybody require ID when casting a vote on something that has impact on so many lives including your own???

Not to require some form of ID (passport,license etc) is not flawed anywhere in the world, it is pure common sense. Or do you think everyone is honest, and wouldn't take advantage?!

That is like saying why do you have a cashier when you buy something, why don't you just leave a box for people to put their money in.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 04:10:25 PM »
In person voter fraud is rare.  Why?  The downside (you might get caught) is much bigger than the upside (your candidates get an extra vote).
I suspect all the 'no ID required' states require a signature.   It's a lot of work to learn someone's signature (I couldn't do it) for just an extra vote for someone else.

By the way, voting and vote counting in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire were carried live at midnight (10 hours ago) - I watched.   5 votes for Biden and 0 votes for Trump.  (The races for governor, senator and representative all went for the incumbent 4 votes to 1 - a Republican governor and Democratic members of Congress.

In Millsfield, New Hampshire (also voting at midnight) Trump received 16 votes and Biden received 5.

I've been to many a farm stand where money is put into a box.  I once bought $100 dollars of honey (several of us - I had my checkbook) this way.
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colchonero

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 04:51:18 PM »
That is not an extra vote, in eastern European countries (many other places too, but also in Europe) you have organized voting fraud systems, with the lists of voters, money offering, many more things. Imagine you don't have to offer an ID, nobody can control anything, and imagine doing that in an organizedway,  in some Cornhole Kansas towns, where there are no pollwatchers, and you get 100% turnout 95-5% votes let's say. And nobody can dissaprove that. Imagine what would happen in those places especially, if there is no electoral college.

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 05:04:47 PM »
Voter fraud is extremely easy. There are many ways to do it. I won't list any, but if you are interested, just look up the numerous criminal cases to find examples. There was a big case in NC of a Republican hiring a ballot harvester in the primary (this year? 2018? I can't remember).

In the US or in any semi competent democratic system, voter fraud in sufficient numbers to make even a tiny difference is absolutely impossible to do without getting caught. Especially in a nationwide election.

Every election there are a handful of voters (usually Republicans) who are innumerate enough and stupid enough to think voter fraud is a good idea. Some of them get caught. The ones who don't get caught are too few to make a difference.

Trump has complained that there were "millions" of fraudulent votes in 2016 to explain his popular vote loss. After being in charge of the DOJ, the FEC, and the FBI for 4 years; and with all the resources of the largest, richest, most powerful government in history, his administration has found, prosecuted, and convicted exactly zero fraudulent voters out of those "millions".

Are Trump and every single one of his appointees monumentally incompetent, or was he lying about the "millions" of fraudulent votes?

Por que no los dos?

------------------

Instead of voter fraud, the US way to throw elections is by voter suppression, intimidation, and numerous "legal" ways of slanting the laws and rules to favor one interest group over others. Usually the oligarchists, the JimCrow/white supremacists, wealthy landowners, etc  ... these people make the rules and count the votes.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2020, 05:25:11 PM »
Tor Bejnar, I think your risk / reward analysis is correct and individual voter fraud is without reward. You are also correct about a signature required with your mail in  ballot , at least here in Calif. 

The markets seem happy this morning , expecting more stimulus I think with a Biden win. And a financial adviser said solar investments are supported with the “ Blue Wave “
 I will save downside views about two months more Trump as a really lame duck. Today I will remain positive.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2020, 05:47:59 PM »
Quote
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Name and address widely available from phone book or online equivalent.
If someone get your birthday (hacking, knowing personally, whatever) is there anything to prevent them from voting in your name before you get a chance to?

Fear of a felony conviction is quite sufficient.  In-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare in the US.  State government-imposed obstacles to getting narrowly-defined ID cards is, however, a large problem in many states. 

Concerns about non-citizen voting is also absurd.  If a non-citizen simply *registers* to vote, they can be on an express line for deportation.  This is thus also vanishingly rare.

The real problem with election fairness isn't fraud, it's official actions that tend to disenfranchise eligible voters.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2020, 05:54:35 PM »
Quote
I suspect all the 'no ID required' states require a signature.   It's a lot of work to learn someone's signature (I couldn't do it) for just an extra vote for someone else.

My Aunt Margy said she drove the people at the bank crazy...she never signed her namr twice the same way.
To a degree I am like that.
And would you have felt the same iabout voter fraud not making a difference is evidence turned up in 2000 that some Florida Republicans engaged in it? Just a few hundred out of the whole state?
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2020, 06:13:54 PM »
Re: Compulsory voting
How do you set a fine? "Sorry, Ms. Julenez, the fine is $5000 for not voting. It's the same fine for you as for Bill Gates. The fact you would lose your minimum wage job and your home if you took the time out to vote makes no difference."
And what about religious persecution? I give Jehovah's Witnesses a hard time when they talk to me, but I would not want to fine them for their religion.
The more I think about it the worse the idea seems.
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wehappyfew

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2020, 06:16:38 PM »
Florida 2000

See Brooks Brothers Riot.

When the people who make the rules are the ones rioting, its not illegal, therefore not voter fraud.

SCCJ John Roberts, SCJ Brett Kavanaugh, and new SCJ Amy Barrett where all participants in the Brooks Brothers Riot. Now they are in charge of interpreting the rules.

Its not who votes that counts, its who counts the votes.

The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2020, 06:34:17 PM »
Voter fraud is extremely easy. There are many ways to do it. I won't list any, but if you are interested, just look up the numerous criminal cases to find examples. There was a big case in NC of a Republican hiring a ballot harvester in the primary (this year? 2018? I can't remember).

In the US or in any semi competent democratic system, voter fraud in sufficient numbers to make even a tiny difference is absolutely impossible to do without getting caught. Especially in a nationwide election.

Every election there are a handful of voters (usually Republicans) who are innumerate enough and stupid enough to think voter fraud is a good idea. Some of them get caught. The ones who don't get caught are too few to make a difference.

Trump has complained that there were "millions" of fraudulent votes in 2016 to explain his popular vote loss. After being in charge of the DOJ, the FEC, and the FBI for 4 years; and with all the resources of the largest, richest, most powerful government in history, his administration has found, prosecuted, and convicted exactly zero fraudulent voters out of those "millions".

Are Trump and every single one of his appointees monumentally incompetent, or was he lying about the "millions" of fraudulent votes?


Every election there are numerous cases of voter fraud.  Nobody knows how many for sure, but it is certainly between a handful and millions.  Almost 10,000 voters in NC cast double ballots in both the 2016 and 2018 elections. 

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/07/09/thousands-of-north-carolina-voters-double-voted-watchdog-group-finds/

Hundreds of dead people voted in recent California election, surpassing Chicago as the leader in the cemetery vote.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/05/23/cbs2-investigation-uncovers-votes-being-cast-from-grave-year-after-year/

The dead also vote in Colorado.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/09/22/cbs4-investigation-finds-dead-voters-casting-ballots-in-colorado/

20 people were convicted of double voting in Arizona in 2016.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/08/14/voter-fraud-arizona-how-often-does-happen-how-stopped/534986001/

Fraudulent activities can affect the election results:

https://www.nj.com/passaic-county/2014/10/ex-paterson_councilman_wife_indicted_on_election_fraud_charges_wont_go_to_prison.html

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?

FrostKing70

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #46 on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:24 PM »
Here is the article I referenced up thread (or at least a similar one!):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/


The Walrus

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #47 on: November 03, 2020, 07:24:30 PM »
By that graphic, this morning's IBD/TIPP poll has Biden just squeaking out the election.

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-stays-close-election-day-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2020, 07:37:54 PM »
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...
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Paddy

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Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« Reply #49 on: November 03, 2020, 07:50:50 PM »
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...

If so, perhaps they should decide ownership of the white House with pistols at dawn. A bonus would be that if one or both of them survive, they can be locked up for killing or attempting to kill the president.