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Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #100 on: January 30, 2021, 05:43:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 29th, 2021:
     13,428,030 km2, an increase of 19,450 km2.
     2021 is 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #101 on: January 30, 2021, 11:14:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,428,030 KM2 as at 29-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 19k, 8 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 27k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,873 k, which is 776 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 9,097 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  197 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  533 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  305 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  219 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  53 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 38 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.30 million km2, 0.42 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #102 on: January 30, 2021, 02:21:36 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 29-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,342,272 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,342,272    km2      
 122,298    km2   >   2010's average.
-173,206    km2   <   2020
 616,951    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    51    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    25    k   gain
Central Seas___    25    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______    14    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 51 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average gain of 24 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 122 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 617 k more than 2017         
- Area is 400 k more than 2016         
- Area is 173 k less than 2020          
- Area is 27 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 29-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,857,383 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 17 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average gain of 19k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 121 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 292 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 216 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 132 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 20 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #103 on: January 31, 2021, 05:29:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 30th, 2021:
     13,477,429 km2, an increase of 49,399 km2.
     2021 is 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #104 on: January 31, 2021, 01:13:20 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,477,429 KM2 as at 30-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 49k, 9 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,493 k, which is 597 k, 7% less than the 10 year average of 9,090 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  209 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  512 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  296 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  177 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  61 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 92.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 37 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.18 million km2, 0.29 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #105 on: January 31, 2021, 02:35:19 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 30-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,395,821 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,395,821    km2      
 146,957    km2   >   2010's average.
-175,462    km2   <   2020
 662,016    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    54    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    29    k   gain
Central Seas___    24    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______    14    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 54 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 147 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 662 k more than 2017         
- Area is 424 k more than 2016         
- Area is 175 k less than 2020          
- Area is 72 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 30-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,877,707 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 20 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average gain of 22k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 119 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 314 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 203 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 147 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 19 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #106 on: January 31, 2021, 02:41:17 PM »
From NSIDC Data

While sea ice area and extent in nearly all seas are at or above the 2010's average, there is still usually a record low to be found, and it is in the St Lawrence - area has been lowest in the satellite record for 13 days this year. Baffin Bay looks as if it should be lowest, but 2011 was even lower.

So it is in the NW Atlantic where low sea ice is to be found at this year's maximum (at the moment).

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #107 on: February 01, 2021, 04:45:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 31st, 2021:
     13,531,281 km2, an increase of 53,852 km2.
     2021 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #108 on: February 01, 2021, 01:20:06 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,531,281 KM2 as at 31-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 54k, 19 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,603 k, which is 528 k, 6% less than the 10 year average of 9,131 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  204 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  456 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  315 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  112 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  79 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 36 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.19 million km2, 0.30 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #109 on: February 01, 2021, 01:51:53 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more

I attach the January Monthly averages graph. Jan 2021 average extent at 12.92 million km2 is 201K (4 years) above the linear trend value for Jan 21, but is till 5th lowest in the satellite record, and nearly 150k LESS than Jan '20.  This low 5th place was partly due to low extent values at the beginning of the month only parly offset by higher extent towards the end of the month. These later higher values affect the current estimate of the February monthly average.

Even if extent gains are only average, the February average will be 10th lowest in the satellite record, some 255k above the linear trend value for 2021, but 160K less than Feb '20.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #110 on: February 01, 2021, 02:45:36 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 31-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,457,770 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,457,770    km2      
 177,204    km2   >   2010's average.
-174,603    km2   <   2020
 689,659    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    62    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    15    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 62 k, 30 k more than the 2010's average gain of 32 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 177 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 690 k more than 2017         
- Area is 459 k more than 2016         
- Area is 175 k less than 2020          
- Area is 132 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 31-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,912,400 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 35 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 23k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 131 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 335 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 223 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 164 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 43 k more than 2012   
_________________________________
Sustained bove average area and extent gains send extent down the table - both at 10th lowest in the satellite record.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #111 on: February 02, 2021, 04:46:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 1st, 2021:
     13,554,224 km2, an increase of 22,943 km2.
     2021 is 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #112 on: February 02, 2021, 10:32:49 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,554,224 KM2 as at 01-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 23k, 5 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 18k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,683 k, which is 477 k, 5% less than the 10 year average of 9,160 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  217 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  399 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  249 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  54 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  84 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 35 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.19 million km2, 0.30 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #113 on: February 02, 2021, 03:07:05 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 01-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,494,250 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,494,250    km2      
 177,229    km2   >   2010's average.
-180,154    km2   <   2020
 674,365    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    36    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    32    k   gain
Central Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 36 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average gain of 36 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 177 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 674 k more than 2017         
- Area is 467 k more than 2016         
- Area is 180 k less than 2020          
- Area is 159 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,931,474 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 19 k, 14 k less than the 2010's average gain of 33k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 117 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 325 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 213 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 186 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 39 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #114 on: February 02, 2021, 06:33:24 PM »
NSIDC Area analysis in Jaxa analysis format

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  12,494,250 KM2 as at 01-Feb-2021

- Area gain on this day 36k, 0 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,862 k, 646 k, 7.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,217 k.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -180 k LESS than 2020
- Extent is  467 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  159 k MORE than 2012
______________________________
On average 91.0% of extent gain from minimum to maximum done, and 38 days to maximum

Projections.
Average remaining area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March of 13.41 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2017 minimum maximum  sea ice area of 12.70 million km2.
________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #115 on: February 02, 2021, 06:43:35 PM »
from NSIDC Data - a bit more

I attach the Jan 21 monthly average area graph - 2021 was 2nd lowest.

I also attach the 365 day trailing average area table and graph. At the current rate, a new record low average might have to wait until 2022 at least.

click an image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #116 on: February 03, 2021, 05:04:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 2nd, 2021:
     13,604,908 km2, an increase of 50,684 km2.
     2021 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #117 on: February 03, 2021, 10:19:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,604,908 KM2 as at 02-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 10 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,680 k, which is 516 k, 6% less than the 10 year average of 9,196 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  166 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  354 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  234 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  66 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  94 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 34 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.20 million km2, 0.31 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #118 on: February 03, 2021, 02:32:18 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 02-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,529,045 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,529,045    km2      
 175,210    km2   >   2010's average.
-174,120    km2   <   2020
 646,883    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    49    k   gain
Central Seas___   -14    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    9    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average gain of 37 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 175 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 647 k more than 2017         
- Area is 485 k more than 2016         
- Area is 174 k less than 2020          
- Area is 178 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,975,542 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 127 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 329 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 241 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 199 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 76 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #119 on: February 04, 2021, 05:48:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 3rd, 2021:
     13,673,946 km2, an increase of 69,038 km2.
     2021 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)
     2010 without an official value, average used.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #120 on: February 04, 2021, 10:10:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,673,946 KM2 as at 03-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 69k, 44 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,740 k, which is 469 k, 5% less than the 10 year average of 9,209 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Extent is  97 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  397 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  308 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  87 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  135 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 33 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Very strong extent gains in the last 2 days move extent from 7th to 11th lowest in the satellite record in those 2 days.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #121 on: February 04, 2021, 02:15:00 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 03-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,570,789 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,570,789    km2      
 185,763    km2   >   2010's average.
-125,539    km2   <   2020
 616,638    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    42    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    69    k   gain
Central Seas___   -27    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    18    k   gain
Bering _______    10    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 42 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average gain of 31 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 186 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 617 k more than 2017         
- Area is 520 k more than 2016         
- Area is 126 k less than 2020          
- Area is 209 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,043,992 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 68 k, 35 k more than the 2010's average gain of 33k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 162 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 341 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 298 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 161 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 144 k more than 2012   
___________________________
Area increases in the peripheral seas extremely high - but an area loss in several of the central seas. La Nina + SSW?      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #122 on: February 05, 2021, 04:56:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 4th, 2021:
     13,723,437 km2, an increase of 49,491 km2.
     2021 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)
     2010 without an official value, average used.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #123 on: February 05, 2021, 11:36:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,723,437 KM2 as at 04-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 49k, 36 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,781 k, which is 438 k, 5% less than the 10 year average of 9,219 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record

- Extent is  47 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  420 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  386 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  59 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  169 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 32 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.28 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Down yet another place to 12th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #124 on: February 05, 2021, 03:04:15 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 04-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,588,128 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,588,128    km2      
 183,204    km2   >   2010's average.
-82,249    km2   <   2020
 581,804    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    49    k   gain
Central Seas___   -32    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 20 k         
         
- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 183 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 582 k more than 2017         
- Area is 528 k more than 2016         
- Area is 82 k less than 2020          
- Area is 221 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,083,677 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 40 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average gain of 29k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 173 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 357 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 301 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 139 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 181 k more than 2012   
_________________________________
6 out of 7 of the High Arctic seas with an area LOSS,      
6 out of 7 of the Peripheral seas with an area GAIN.

Odd   

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #125 on: February 05, 2021, 03:08:47 PM »
NSIDC Data

High Arctic area losses - just a wobble or an event unfolding?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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FrostKing70

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #126 on: February 05, 2021, 06:47:04 PM »
Is the loss spread over all the basins or confined to 1 or 2?   Might help indicate if it is a wobble....

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #127 on: February 05, 2021, 07:02:29 PM »
Is the loss spread over all the basins or confined to 1 or 2?   Might help indicate if it is a wobble....
6 out of 7 of the High Arctic seas with an area LOSS,     
6 out of 7 of the Peripheral seas with an area GAIN.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #128 on: February 06, 2021, 04:52:57 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 5th, 2021:
     13,736,730 km2, an increase of 13,293 km2.
     2021 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)
     2010 without an official value, average used.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #129 on: February 06, 2021, 11:32:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,736,730 KM2 as at 05-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 13k, 1 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,182 k, which is 902 k, 10% more than the 10 year average of 9,280 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record

- Extent is  117 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  407 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  413 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  16 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  175 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 31 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.27 million km2, 0.38 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: February 06, 2021, 12:30:36 PM by gerontocrat »
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uniquorn

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #130 on: February 06, 2021, 11:39:57 AM »
The sea of Okhotsk takes some responsibility for the high extent numbers.
Here using Wipneus UH AMSR2 3.125km data (up to feb4) but there shouldn't be a problem with boundaries in Okhotsk

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #131 on: February 06, 2021, 03:13:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 05-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,572,738 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,572,738    km2      
 153,924    km2   >   2010's average.
-86,394    km2   <   2020
 515,646    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -15    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain
Central Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    23    k   gain
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area Loss on this day 15 k, 29 k less than the 2010's average gain of 14 k         
         
- Area is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 154 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 516 k more than 2017         
- Area is 482 k more than 2016         
- Area is 86 k less than 2020          
- Area is 206 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,101,436 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 27k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 163 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 360 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 265 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 150 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 191 k more than 2012   
_________________________________
Central sea ice area down for the 4th day.

6 out of 7 of the High Arctic seas with an area LOSS,     
5 out of 7 of the Peripheral seas with an area GAIN.

Odd      
   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #132 on: February 06, 2021, 04:26:06 PM »
NSIDC Data

High Arctic Sea ice area losses in the High Arctic for a fourth day, especially along the Siberian shore

- just a wobble or an event unfolding?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #133 on: February 06, 2021, 04:46:16 PM »
I cling to my speculation that the extremely high sea ice in the Okhotsk will force the Pacfic lows that travel up along the Japanese coast into the Bering and cause an early collapse in Bering sea ice as in early 2019..another hostage to fortune.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #134 on: February 06, 2021, 10:23:08 PM »
Thanks again for the daily updates and insights. I come here every day.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #135 on: February 07, 2021, 04:56:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 6th, 2021:
     13,740,292 km2, an increase of only 3,562 km2.
     2021 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #136 on: February 07, 2021, 12:41:30 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,740,292 KM2 as at 06-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 4k, 22 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,185 k, which is 880 k, 9.5% more than the 10 year average of 9,306 k.

- Extent is at position #12 in the satellite record

- Extent is  199 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  447 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  393 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  22 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  158 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 30 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #137 on: February 07, 2021, 04:55:35 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,564,466 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,564,466    km2      
 145,255    km2   >   2010's average.
-124,107    km2   <   2020
 463,119    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    18    k   gain
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area Loss on this day 8 k, 8 k less than the 2010's average gain of 0 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 145 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 463 k more than 2017         
- Area is 437 k more than 2016         
- Area is 124 k less than 2020          
- Area is 216 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,128,372 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 27 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 175 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 366 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 253 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 178 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 210 k more than 2012   
________________________________________
Central sea ice area down for the 4th day but by a reduced amount.

6 out of 7 of the High Arctic seas with an area LOSS,           

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #138 on: February 07, 2021, 04:57:57 PM »
NSIDC Data

High Arctic Sea ice area losses in the High Arctic for a fifth day, especially along the Siberian shore.
But the decline is slowing

- perhaps ending up between a wobble and an event?

EDIT: It is the ESS that shows the most striking AREA loss - but zero extent loss.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2021, 05:52:07 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #139 on: February 08, 2021, 04:42:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 7th, 2021:
     13,764,486 km2, an increase of 24,194 km2.
     2021 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #140 on: February 08, 2021, 11:12:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,764,486 KM2 as at 07-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 24k, 8 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,210 k, which is 888 k, 9.5% more than the 10 year average of 9,322 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Extent is  225 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  514 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  413 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  66 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  172 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 29 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.28 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #141 on: February 08, 2021, 02:34:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,566,593 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,566,593    km2      
 150,705    km2   >   2010's average.
-157,966    km2   <   2020
 456,201    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    2    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    12    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 2 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 151 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 456 k more than 2017         
- Area is 380 k more than 2016         
- Area is 158 k less than 2020          
- Area is 242 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,163,249 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 35 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average gain of 10k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 201 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 399 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 243 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 186 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 233 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #142 on: February 08, 2021, 03:10:44 PM »
NSIDC Data

High Arctic Sea ice area losses in the High Arctic for a sixth day, but the decline is slowing sharply
- perhaps ending up more like a wobble than an event?

The ESS the only sea to show a meaningful extent loss.

But meanwhile, Hudson Bay showing that in recent years years area around maximum somewhat wobbly.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #143 on: February 09, 2021, 04:56:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 8th, 2021:
     13,761,907 km2, a drop of -2,579 km2.
     2021 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #144 on: February 09, 2021, 09:20:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,761,907 KM2 as at 08-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 3k, 33 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,207 k, which is 855 k, 9.1% more than the 10 year average of 9,352 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Extent is  256 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  520 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  404 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  170 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  138 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 28 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.26 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: February 09, 2021, 09:59:39 AM by gerontocrat »
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colchonero

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #145 on: February 09, 2021, 09:46:36 AM »
33k less than average gain ;)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #146 on: February 09, 2021, 10:44:40 AM »
33k less than average gain ;)
Did it again- posted the melting season blurb. Must be fed up with the freezing season.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #147 on: February 09, 2021, 02:32:35 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 08-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,561,035 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,561,035    km2      
 141,209    km2   >   2010's average.
-222,943    km2   <   2020
 478,560    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -6    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas___    10    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    14    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 6 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average gain of 4 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 141 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 479 k more than 2017         
- Area is 299 k more than 2016         
- Area is 223 k less than 2020          
- Area is 242 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,183,979 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 21 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 18k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #13 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 204 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 424 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 214 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 231 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 215 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #148 on: February 09, 2021, 02:50:20 PM »
NSIDC Data - a bit more
Perhaps we are reaching the wobbly month for sea ice area.

A switch from Central Seas sea ice loss to gain, and vice-versa for Peripheral Seas sea ice area on this day.

The ESS event ended up as a big wobble.

Even though the Barents sea ice gains continue to go beserk, the St Lawrence and Hudson Bay sea ice area are both at record lows for the day.

click images to enlarge

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #149 on: February 10, 2021, 05:05:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 9th, 2021:
     13,774,514 km2, an increase of 12,607 km2.
     2021 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.