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Juan C. García

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2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 02, 2021, 05:23:39 AM »
Happy new year!  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 1st, 2021:
     12,160,008 km2, an increase of 54,737 km2.
     2021 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum, which happened:

          Lowest
           Daily                                      Extent
         Minimum       Date               (million km2)
            1st.       16/sep/2012             3.18
            2nd.      13/sep/2020             3.55
            3rd.      17/sep/2019              3.96
            4th.      07/sep/2016              4.02
            5th.      17/sep/2007              4.07

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2021, 04:53:10 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2021, 11:33:56 AM »
Whoops - change of year caught me out again... Try again

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,160,008 KM2 as at 01-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 55k, 16 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,605 k, which is 570 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 8,036 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  127 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  75 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  586 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  478 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  180 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 80.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 66 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.06 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
I hate change of year day - something always catches me out
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2021, 04:59:28 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 01-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,053,925 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,053,925    km2      
-194,311    km2   <   2010's average.
-378,769    km2   <   2019
-643,429    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    22    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 22 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 54 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 194 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 643 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 421 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 379 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 208 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,555,595 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 33 k, 50 k less than the 2010's average gain of 83k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 138 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 576 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 75 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 221 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 230 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2021, 04:43:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 2nd, 2021:
     12,131,326 km2, a drop of -28,682 km2:(
     2021 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010 Avg., 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2021, 12:16:48 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,131,326 KM2 as at 02-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 29k, 77 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,577 k, which is 493 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 8,084 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  324 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  106 k LESS than 2017,
- Extent is  655 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  500 k LESS than 2008
- Extent is  255 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 81.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 65 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.99 million km2, 0.11 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 07:19:57 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2021, 03:18:36 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 02-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,070,767 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,070,767    km2      
-226,588    km2   <   2010's average.
-384,943    km2   <   2020
-671,929    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    17    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    33    k   gain
Central Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    22    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 49 k         
         
- 2021 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2021 Area is 227 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2021 Area is 672 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2021 Area is 397 k more than 2017         
- 2021 Area is 385 k less than 2020          
- 2021 Area is 259 k less than 2013         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,582,704 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 26 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50k         
         
- 2021 EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2021 EXTENT is 162 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2021 EXTENT is 587 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2021 EXTENT is 64 k more than 2017         
- 2021 EXTENT is 253 k less than 2020          
- 2021 EXTENT is 222 k less than 2013
____________________________________________
This is not looking like a sea ice recovery         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 07:23:16 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2021, 03:27:59 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC Data

Central Arctic - Just to show that if there is a big wide ocean to the South, sea ice at 80 degrees North is no longer safe even in the dead of winter.

Bering Sea
Even though the Chukchi finally ended up freezing over pretty much on schedule, the Bering Sea seems to continue its progress to being a mostly ice-free sea even in winter.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2021, 04:37:25 PM »
Hi Gero.

I think that these numbers need to be changed to 2021...

NSIDC Total AREA as at 02-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,070,767 KM2         
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 49 k         
         
- 2020 2021 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 2021 ...         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 26 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50k         
         
- 2020 2021 EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 2021 ...   

P.S. People that do nothing, they do not make mistakes. Thank you for all the work that you do!
And thanks to everyone that participates! We have the best internet Arctic sea ice forum here!

Happy new year!   ;)
« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 07:03:09 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2021, 04:51:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 3rd, 2021:
     12,178,953 km2, an increase of 47,627 km2.
     2021 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's Avg., 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2021, 04:46:11 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2021, 10:54:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,178,953 KM2 as at 03-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 48k, 3 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,624 k, which is 489 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 8,135 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  348 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  96 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  85 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  199 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  257 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 81.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 64 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.99 million km2, 0.11 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: January 04, 2021, 11:11:44 AM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2021, 03:21:45 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 03-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,090,244 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,090,244    km2      
-253,411    km2   <   2010's average.
-403,218    km2   <   2020
-694,624    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    39    k   gain
Central Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    23    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -12    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 20 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 253 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 695 k less than the 2000's average         
- Area is 25 k less than 2016         
- Area is 403 k less than 2020          
- Area is 645 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,601,201 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 182 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 613 k less than the 2000's average         
- EXTENT is 90 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 302 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 607 k less than 2012   
_________________________________
5 out of the 7 High Arctic central seas with an area loss on this day (some large some small) is unusual in the dead of winter   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

LDorey

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2021, 03:57:28 PM »
Hi Gerontocrat,

Thanks for all the work you do, I pretty much visit daily to get the latest numbers. I was wondering if it was possible for 2018/2019 to be added to the graph for those of here who enjoy the horse race? :). Apologies if this is a repeat request, and if it's a pain don't worry about it, Cheers!


Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2021, 04:45:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 4th, 2021:
     12,241,307 km2, an increase of 62,354 km2.
     2021 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2021, 08:20:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,241,307 KM2 as at 04-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 25 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,687 k, which is 515 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 8,172 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  336 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  101 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  129 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  187 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  232 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 82.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 63 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.01 million km2, 0.13 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2021, 02:48:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 04-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,117,976 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,117,976    km2      
-275,654    km2   <   2010's average.
-431,158    km2   <   2020
 335,842    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    28    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    51    k   gain
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    23    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 28 k, 22 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 276 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 336 k more than 2017         
- Area is 8 k more than 2016         
- Area is 431 k less than 2020          
- Area is 690 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,625,256 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 24 k, 19 k less than the 2010's average gain of 43k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 201 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 24 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 71 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 342 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 612 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
      
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2021, 02:51:01 PM »
NSIDC - Central Arctic continues to lose sea ice extent and area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2021, 05:03:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 5th, 2021:
     12,328,458 km2, an increase of 87,151 km2.
     2021 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2021, 10:39:57 AM »
Hi Gerontocrat,
I was wondering if it was possible for 2018/2019 to be added to the graph for those of here who enjoy the horse race? :).
It was March 18 that saw a maximum of 13 .89 million km2 that was almost a dead tie with the March 2016 record low maximum of 13. 88 million km2.

So - just for you....

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,328,458 KM2 as at 05-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 87k, 44 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,774 k, which is 559 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 8,215 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  274 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  159 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  95 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  159 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  189 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 82.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 62 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.06 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2021, 03:33:01 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 05-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,115,889 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,115,889    km2      
-331,077    km2   <   2010's average.
-484,697    km2   <   2020
 238,077    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    38    k   gain
Central Seas___   -40    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -23    k   loss
         
Sea ice area LOSS on this day 2 k, 55 k less than the 2010's average gain of 53 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 331 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 238 k more than 2017         
- Area is 11 k more than 2016         
- Area is 485 k less than 2020          
- Area is 763 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,643,710 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 31 k less than the 2010's average gain of 49k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 232 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 22 k less than 2017         
- EXTENT is 71 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 367 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 616 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2021, 03:36:56 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC Data

Atlantification
progressing even in mid-Winter ?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2021, 05:20:52 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 6th, 2021:
     12,389,015 km2, an increase of 60,557 km2.
     2021 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2021, 10:05:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,389,015 KM2 as at 06-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 61k, 22 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,834 k, which is 580 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 8,254 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  221 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  1 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  194 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  173 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 83.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 61 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.07 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2021, 02:56:44 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,108,644 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,108,644    km2      
-388,053    km2   <   2010's average.
-542,155    km2   <   2020
 161,139    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -7    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    41    k   gain
Central Seas___   -48    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Kara_________   -42    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 7 k, 57 k less than the 2010's average gain of 50 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 388 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 161 k more than 2017         
- Area is 24 k less than 2016         
- Area is 542 k less than 2020          
- Area is 837 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,675,293 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 32 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 43k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 243 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 34 k less than 2017         
- EXTENT is 101 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 357 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 592 k less than 2012   
______________________________________
A 42k daily sea ice area LOSS in the Kara Sea on 6 Jan is simply ridiculous      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #23 on: January 07, 2021, 10:52:15 PM »
The colours in the Central Seas' table look more like those during a melting season ...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2021, 04:45:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 7th, 2021:
     12,457,073 km2, an increase of 68,058 km2.
     2021 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #25 on: January 08, 2021, 09:28:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,457,073 KM2 as at 07-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 68k, 43 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,902 k, which is 623 k, 8% more than the 10 year average of 8,279 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  202 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  249 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  121 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  207 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  133 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 83.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 60 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.11 million km2, 0.23 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2021, 03:00:48 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,122,110 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,122,110    km2      
-416,515    km2   <   2010's average.
-590,251    km2   <   2020
 141,132    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas___   -30    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -42    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 13 k, 29 k less than the 2010's average gain of 42 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 417 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 141 k more than 2017         
- Area is 51 k less than 2016         
- Area is 590 k less than 2020          
- Area is 900 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,733,254 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 58 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 224 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 10 k less than 2017         
- EXTENT is 118 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 329 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 551 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2021, 04:49:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2021:
     12,521,006 km2, an increase of 63,933 km2.
     2021 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2021, 11:03:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,521,006 KM2 as at 08-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 64k, 38 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,966 k, which is 660 k, 8% more than the 10 year average of 8,306 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  179 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  283 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  192 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  162 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  95 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 83.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 59 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.15 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2021, 02:17:47 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 08-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,131,405 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,131,405    km2      
-441,830    km2   <   2010's average.
-637,222    km2   <   2020
 130,210    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    9    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    33    k   gain
Central Seas___   -24    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -40    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 9 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 35 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 442 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 130 k more than 2017         
- Area is 104 k less than 2016         
- Area is 637 k less than 2020          
- Area is 983 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,791,238 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 58 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average gain of 36k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 202 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 17 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 109 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 295 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 534 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #30 on: January 09, 2021, 02:18:48 PM »
Kara ice loss impressive
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #31 on: January 10, 2021, 05:05:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 9th, 2021:
     12,618,437 km2, an increase of 97,431 km2.
     2021 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #32 on: January 10, 2021, 10:27:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,618,437 KM2 as at 09-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 97k, 59 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,064 k, which is 720 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,344 k.

- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record

- Extent is  59 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  339 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  292 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  86 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  43 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 84.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 58 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.20 million km2, 0.32 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Persistent well above average sea ice extent gains sends extent from 2nd to 5th lowest in just three days.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #33 on: January 10, 2021, 02:38:08 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 09-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,130,858 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,130,858    km2      
-472,812    km2   <   2010's average.
-663,529    km2   <   2020
 130,776    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -1    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas___   -16    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -26    k   loss
         
Sea ice area LOSS on this day 1 k, 31 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 473 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 131 k more than 2017         
- Area is 190 k less than 2016         
- Area is 664 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,059 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,855,834 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 65 k, 26 k more than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 177 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 98 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 98 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 249 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 537 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #34 on: January 10, 2021, 02:45:35 PM »
NSIDC Data - a bit more

For the last few days extent gains have been much higher than area gains. This is apparent from the concentration graph. Perhaps the area data is a better guide than extent to the condition of the ice.

The story of area gains stalling is almost entirely about just one sea - the Kara (attached)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2021, 04:59:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2021:
     12,680,523 km2, an increase of 62,086 km2.
     2021 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #36 on: January 11, 2021, 10:52:42 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,680,523 KM2 as at 10-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,126 k, which is 734 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,392 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  16 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  369 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  344 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  142 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  36 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 84.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 57 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.21 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A higher than average daily extent gain drops extent down another place to 6th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #37 on: January 11, 2021, 12:03:02 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more

So far 2021 has brought more above average than below average extent gain. This suggests that the Jan 21 Monthly average may be somewhat above the linear trend value trend and perhaps 4th lowest in the satellite record.

These above average extent gains mean result in that the Jan 10 2021 extent is now greater than the Jan 10 2020 extent. As a result of that the 365 day trailing average stopped declining and rose a trifle.
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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #38 on: January 11, 2021, 02:55:43 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,166,873 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,166,873    km2      
-463,041    km2   <   2010's average.
-638,864    km2   <   2020
 160,671    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average gain of 26 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 463 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 161 k more than 2017         
- Area is 260 k less than 2016         
- Area is 639 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,070 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,922,293 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 65 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average gain of 36k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 147 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 176 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 111 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 208 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 534 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #39 on: January 12, 2021, 05:04:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2021:
     12,674,081 km2, a drop of -6,442 km2.
     2021 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #40 on: January 12, 2021, 10:00:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,674,081 KM2 as at 11-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 6k, 60 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,119 k, which is 674 k, 8% more than the 10 year average of 8,446 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  36 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  342 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  277 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  216 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  99 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 56 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.14 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Today's extent loss puts extent back to 4th lowest from 6th. A one day hiccup ?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2021, 02:03:25 PM »
Damn

Back online but no data update for the 11th
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 02:53:17 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #42 on: January 12, 2021, 06:52:51 PM »
The data arrived..............

NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,218,200 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,218,200    km2      
-443,256    km2   <   2010's average.
-603,823    km2   <   2020
 177,187    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    51    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas___    30    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Kara_________    10    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 51 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average gain of 32 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 443 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 177 k more than 2017         
- Area is 312 k less than 2016         
- Area is 604 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,054 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,969,554 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 47 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 143 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 196 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 145 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 194 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 554 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2021, 04:55:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2021:
     12,788,480 km2, a century increase of 114,399 km2.
     2021 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #44 on: January 13, 2021, 10:13:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,788,480 KM2 as at 12-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 114k, 66 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,234 k, which is 740 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,494 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  25 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  420 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  410 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  172 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  28 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 55 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.22 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Looks like the extent loss on Jan 11 was just a blip. This day's century+ gain puts extent back to 6th lowest again.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #45 on: January 13, 2021, 02:46:00 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,277,437 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,277,437    km2      
-418,863    km2   <   2010's average.
-562,485    km2   <   2020
 211,781    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    59    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    36    k   gain
Central Seas___    24    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    15    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 59 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 35 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 419 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 212 k more than 2017         
- Area is 325 k less than 2016         
- Area is 562 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,029 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,022,234 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 53 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 129 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 244 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 135 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 172 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 567 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #46 on: January 14, 2021, 04:45:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2021:
     12,879,279 km2, an increase of 90,799 km2.
     2021 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #47 on: January 14, 2021, 10:05:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,879,279 KM2 as at 13-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 91k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,324 k, which is 801 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,524 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  44 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  448 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  522 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  124 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  31 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 54 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.28 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
And another very high sea ice extent gain sends extent down another place to 7th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 11:05:11 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #48 on: January 14, 2021, 10:23:46 AM »
Gero you attached the global charts by mistake.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #49 on: January 14, 2021, 11:05:35 AM »
Gero you attached the global charts by mistake.
Whoops - corrected
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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