2021 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 24-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,628,086 KM2         

Total Area           7,628,086    km2       -319,742    km2   <   2010's average. -67,056    km2   <   2020 -111,890    km2   <   2019           Total Change   -76    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -49    k   loss Central Seas___   -27    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -29    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -8    k   loss Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -9    k   loss Beaufort_____    7    k   gain CAA_________   -15    k   loss East Siberian__   -11    k   loss Central Arctic__    13    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Kara_________   -15    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 76 k, 0 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 76 k         
         
- Area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 320 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 4 k more than 2016         
- Area is 112 k less than 2019         
- Area is 67 k less than 2020          
- Area is 149 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 24-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 10,256,153 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 53 k, 29 k less than the 2010's average loss of 82k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 83 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 331 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 21 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 88 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 133 k more than 2012
_____________________________________
Sea ice extent and area losses in the High Arctic have slowed down a lot. If anything, sea ice extent and area losses in the Peripheral Seas have accelerated a bit.   

With weather from the Atlantic still coming from the south, and no Fram export, I think the sea ice off NE Greenland must be liable for considerable losses, that should also finish off the Barents and maybe the Kara. You never know, some inroads on the Atlantic side into ice north of 80 might also be realised even if elsewhere sea ice losses in the Central Arctic are greatly reduced.    
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 25^th, 2021:
     9,468,020 km², a drop of -77,464 km².
     2021 is now 4^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[Rod]

Our very average, ordinary melt season continues apace.

Hmmmm?

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,468,020 KM2 as at 25-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 77k, 5 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,769 k, which is 151 k, 3.3% more than the 10 year average of 4,619 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  120 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  36 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  217 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  26 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  136 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 46.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 81 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.05 million km2, 0.88 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 5th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of 5.91 million km2, 9.2% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.54 million KM2, 2.3% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 25-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,565,979 KM2         

Total Area           7,565,979    km2       -283,636    km2   <   2010's average. -60,569    km2   <   2020 -68,075    km2   <   2019           Total Change   -62    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -56    k   loss Central Seas___   -6    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -32    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -12    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -3    k   loss Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss CAA_________   -7    k   loss East Siberian__   -0    k   loss Central Arctic__    25    k   gain Laptev_______   -0    k   loss Kara_________   -15    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, 25 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 87 k         
         
- Area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 284 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 48 k more than 2016         
- Area is 68 k less than 2019         
- Area is 61 k less than 2020          
- Area is 184 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 25-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 10,190,729 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 65 k, 16 k less than the 2010's average loss of 81k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 66 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 343 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 3 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 97 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 170 k more than 2012   
___________________________________________
Sea ice extent and area losses in the High Arctic have slowed down a lot again. Sea ice extent and area losses in the Peripheral Seas have accelerated quite a bit more.   

With weather from the Atlantic still coming from the south, and no Fram export, I think the sea ice off NE Greenland may be already starting to show considerable losses, and that weather pattern should also finish off the Barents and maybe the Kara.

Note that on this day daily sea ice extent reduced by 180 k km2.
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

Our very average, ordinary melt season continues apace.

Hmmmm?

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 26^th, 2021:
     9,320,150 km², a  century break drop of -147,870 km².
     2021 is 4^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[Ktb]

First century break since April 20th. 66 days without one.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,320,150 KM2 as at 26-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 148k, 72 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 76k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,917 k, which is 222 k, 4.7% more than the 10 year average of 4,695 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  28 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  121 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  117 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  69 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  204 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 46.8% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 80 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 4th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  5.77 million km2, 8.0% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.39 million KM2, 1.0% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
It is interesting that this 148K sea ice extent loss should happen while on the melting thread the discussion is about how the current weather pattern should slow down such losses by a large margin. But is this just a one-off event? And in which seas?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 26-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,518,294 KM2         

Total Area           7,518,294    km2       -230,779    km2   <   2010's average. -5,505    km2   <   2020 -226    km2   <   2019           Total Change   -48    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -63    k   loss Central Seas___    15    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -28    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -16    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____    8    k   gain CAA_________   -5    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic__    15    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Kara_________   -10    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 48 k, 46 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 94 k         
         
- Area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 231 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 88 k more than 2016         
- Area is 0 k less than 2019         
- Area is 6 k less than 2020          
- Area is 253 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 26-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 10,099,830 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 91 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 81k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 75 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 320 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 2 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 84 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 190 k more than 2012
______________________________
Sea ice extent and area losses in the High Arctic have slowed down a lot again, and on this day there was a very unusual sea ice area gain in the High Arctic.. Sea ice extent and area losses in the Peripheral Seas have accelerated even more.   

Note that on this day daily sea ice extent reduced by 188k km2 after the previous day's sea ice extent loss of 180k.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27^th, 2021:
     9,240,862 km², a drop of -79,288 km².
     2021 is now 3^rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,240,862 KM2 as at 27-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 79k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 83k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 4,997 k, which is 219 k, 4.6% more than the 10 year average of 4,778 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  3 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  84 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  85 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  95 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  193 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 47.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 79 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 4th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  5.69 million km2, 8.2% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.31 million KM2, 1.1% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
Despite a very slightly below average sea ice extent loss, 2021 extent has moved up to be a contender for the bronze medal
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 27-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,461,351 KM2         

Total Area           7,461,351    km2       -179,169    km2   <   2010's average.  56,821    km2   >   2020  77,442    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -57    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -56    k   loss Central Seas___   -1    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -24    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -19    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -12    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -2    k   loss Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss CAA_________    0    k   gain East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic__    13    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Kara_________   -9    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 57 k, 49 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 106 k         
         
- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 179 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 104 k more than 2016         
- Area is 77 k more than 2019         
- Area is 57 k more than 2020          
- Area is 295 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 27-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 10,002,920 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 97 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 89k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 80 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 307 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 6 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 55 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 177 k more than 2012   
____________________________________________
Sea ice area losses very much below average, especially in the High Arctic.i
Sea ice extent losses a bit above average, especially in the Peripheral seas.

Note that on this day daily sea ice extent reduced by a mere 84k km2, after the previous 2 days sea ice extent losses of 188k & 180k.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Area & Extent graphs for the High Arctic and Peripheral Seas to show the variations

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 28^th, 2021:
     9,159,209 km², a drop of -81,653 km².
     2021 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,159,209 KM2 as at 28-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 82k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,078 k, which is 204 k, 4.2% more than the 10 year average of 4,874 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  21 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  31 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  75 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  124 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  171 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 48.6% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 78 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 4th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  5.60 million km2, 8.6% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.23 million KM2, 1.4% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 28-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,401,042 KM2         

Total Area           7,401,042    km2       -128,072    km2   <   2010's average.  87,746    km2   >   2020  136,607    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -60    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss Central Seas___   -10    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -21    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -12    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____   -16    k   loss CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic__    11    k   gain Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Kara_________   -8    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 60 k, 49 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 109 k         
         
- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 128 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 126 k more than 2016         
- Area is 137 k more than 2019         
- Area is 88 k more than 2020          
- Area is 346 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 28-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,883,360 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 120 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 93k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 100 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 269 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 4 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 5 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 166 k more than 2012   
__________________________________
Sea ice area losses stay very low,
Sea ice extent losses increase even more.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 29^th, 2021:
     9,094,214 km², a drop of -64,995 km².
     2021 is now 4^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,094,214 KM2 as at 29-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 65k, 32 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,143 k, which is 172 k, 3.5% more than the 10 year average of 4,971 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  44 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  1 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  60 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  70 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  143 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 49.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 77 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.03 million km2, 0.85 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 5th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  5.54 million km2, 9.4% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.17 million KM2, 2.0% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 29-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,321,669 KM2         

Total Area           7,321,669    km2       -100,651    km2   <   2010's average.  95,618    km2   >   2020  181,492    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -79    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -52    k   loss Central Seas___   -27    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -22    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -15    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -13    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -1    k   loss Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss CAA_________   -8    k   loss East Siberian__   -3    k   loss Central Arctic__   -0    k   loss Laptev_______   -4    k   loss Kara_________   -4    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 79 k, 29 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 108 k         
         
- Area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 101 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 130 k more than 2016         
- Area is 181 k more than 2019         
- Area is 96 k more than 2020          
- Area is 386 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 29-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,757,380 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 126 k, 31 k more than the 2010's average loss of 95k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 126 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 207 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 16 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 59 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 149 k more than 2012
__________________________________
Extent losses still very high.
Area losses though up, still well below average.

Both area and extent losses in the Peripheral Seas double those in the High Arctic. Arithmetic strongly suggests these high peripheral seas losses can only last a maximum of 2 weeks more.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Graphs - High Arctic & Peripheral Seas sea ice extent and area

Worth a look to see something of a widening divergence

click images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 30^th, 2021:
     9,037,477 km², a drop of -56,737 km².
     2021 is now 5^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[Ktb]

Monthly/Semimonthly BOE evaluation -- I promise June July will have a mid-month update --

As of June 30th, extent is 9,037,477 km². With on average 75 days remaining until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -107,166 km² for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Additionally under Attachment 1: The average daily loss/gain from 2007-2020, the Weighted Pace, and the Weighted Daily loss to beat.

Total extent loss so far this season is -5,199,956 km². This has resulted in the current season average daily drop of -46,428 km². (See Attachment 2/4).

Total extent loss from maximum to June 30th is 6th greatest on record in the 2007-2021 era. (See Attachment 4).

Looking only at the month of June: 2021 lost -2,134,841 km², the 4th most ice lost for June in the 2007-2021 era. June 2021 loss was ~113.16% of the 2007-2020 June Average. Total loss from maximum to June 30th is ~102.7% of the 2007-2020 mean over the same time frame. (Attachment 3)


I'm going to add here that in the 2007-2020 era, only 1 month has achieved greater than 100,000 km² average daily loss: July 2020.

[Ktb]

And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from July 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From July 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 9th lowest (up 1 ranking from last month, 10 --> 9) value (where lower/more positive/closer to zero indicates an easier to achieve BOE). Keep in mind the WIDE range of the dates of the minimum: that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,037,477 KM2 as at 30-Jun-2021

- Extent loss on this day 57k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 88k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,200 k, which is 141 k, 2.8% more than the 10 year average of 5,059 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  119 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  1 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  64 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  2 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  120 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 50.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 76 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.06 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 5th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  5.48 million km2, 10.2% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  5.11 million KM2, 2.7% above the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 30-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,275,721 KM2         

Total Area           7,275,721    km2       -50,725    km2   <   2010's average.  140,219    km2   >   2020  253,853    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -46    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss Central Seas___   -22    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____   -6    k   loss Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -5    k   loss Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss CAA_________   -5    k   loss East Siberian__   -8    k   loss Central Arctic__   -4    k   loss Laptev_______    3    k   gain Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 46 k, 54 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 100 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 51 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 154 k more than 2016         
- Area is 254 k more than 2019         
- Area is 140 k more than 2020          
- Area is 445 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 30-Jun-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,695,558 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 62 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average loss of 98k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 91 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 207 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 16 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 27 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 175 k more than 2012
___________________________________
Extent sea ice loss halved on this day even though sea ice daily extent dropped by 130k.
Strange days         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Graphs from NSIDC data

First a surprise.

Sea ice area in the Canadian Archipeago Area (CAA) is lowest in the satellite record for the 2nd day.
Sea ice extent in the Canadian Archipeago Area (CAA) is 5th lowest.

Secondly, not a surprise

Sea ice area in the Greenland Sea is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.
Sea ice extent in the Greenland Sea is 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

It looks like ice export from the CAB to the Greenland Sea is halted for at least a week more. You never know, sea ice area and extent could be a record breaker (for a few days).

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1^st, 2021:

"Our service will be stopped from July 2nd 9:00 JST to 5th 13:00 JST, 2021 by planned electrical outage for legal inspection."

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1409658617695924232

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 01-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,157,587 KM2         

Total Area           7,157,587    km2       -58,981    km2   <   2010's average.  151,464    km2   >   2020  255,698    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -81    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -44    k   loss Central Seas___   -37    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -10    k   loss Barents ______   -4    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -4    k   loss Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    10    k   gain East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic__   -33    k   loss Laptev_______   -3    k   loss Kara_________   -11    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 81 k, 36 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 117 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 59 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 135 k more than 2016         
- Area is 256 k more than 2019         
- Area is 151 k more than 2020          
- Area is 440 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 01-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,579,205 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 90 k, 43 k less than the 2010's average loss of 133k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 75 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 189 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 45 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 11 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 189 k more than 2012
____________________________________
Sea ice area & extent losses remain well below average.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 02-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 7,057,613 KM2         

Total Area           7,057,613    km2       -54,987    km2   <   2010's average.  196,097    km2   >   2020  263,069    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -100    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -54    k   loss Central Seas___   -46    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -23    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -9    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    4    k   gain Beaufort_____    17    k   gain CAA_________    10    k   gain East Siberian__   -1    k   loss Central Arctic__   -37    k   loss Laptev_______   -22    k   loss Kara_________   -17    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 100 k, 13 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 113 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 55 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 143 k more than 2016         
- Area is 263 k more than 2019         
- Area is 196 k more than 2020          
- Area is 466 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 02-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,434,988 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 144 k, 21 k more than the 2010's average loss of 123k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 99 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 129 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 29 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 20 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 185 k more than 2012
________________________________________
And sea ice extent losses leap from well below to very much above average. Maybe the sensors are being confused. Sea ice extent daily change in the last 3 days
- 30 June +19k
-  1 July   -210k (mask change)   
-  2 July   -351k      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[charles_oil]

WOW Gero - is the 351k a record - I know its instantaneous ... but even  so with a 210k mask change yesterday looks more than a correction...

[Stephan]

Evaluation of Arctic sea ice area "relatve area wise" June 15-July 2, 2021:
The laggard is still the
CAB      - 4%
Slow melting in
BEAU   -12%
CHUK   -18%
ESS     -18%
medium values in
CAA    -26%
LAP     -26%
KAR    -33% (fastest of the inner seas)
BAR    -39%
high relative melting in
GRØ    -41%
The leaders are
BAF    -51%
HUD   -57%

Okhotsk, Bering and St Lawrence not evaluated.

No sea has witnessed a > 10% daily loss in the last weeks.

[gerontocrat]

WOW Gero - is the 351k a record - I know its instantaneous ... but even  so with a 210k mask change yesterday looks more than a correction...

I don't know. Have to wait a few days for Jaxa data, but later will look at the data file from wipneus' site.

Meanwhile - a look at the Atlantic Front.

Greenland Sea. I went to https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/ to look at previous years include 2016 to see the state of the sea ice in the Greenland Sea North of 75 at this time.
This year it is just rubble. Sea ice import from the Fram has not stopped the melt.

Barents Sea Despite winds sending a lot of ice from the CAB into this sea in much of June, sea ice is at the 2010's average with just 50k km2 of sea ice area left.

Kara Sea PIOMAS data shows sea ice thickness recovering strongly last winter with thickness well above average. While the Western half of the Kara is pretty much melted out, the Eastern half still looks solid. Sea ice area remains well above the 2010's average. Remaining ice will probably melt out, but late.

Laptev Sea Included as the Laptev is likely to be the next sea to show real signs of Atlantification. Despite solid ice in the Kara to the West, the Laptev seems to still be on the way to repeating something like last year's record melt out, though maybe not as early as 2020.

[gerontocrat]

Wipneus analysis and data file confirms an NSIDC daily sea ice extent drop of 351k km2, and a very high daily sea ice area drop of 219k km2.

This caused sea ice extent ranking to rise from 9th to 3rd lowest in the satellite record (2012 and 2010 lower), but sea ice area stayed 8th lowest.

Will there be a correction tomorrow?
Will there be a further large drop?

The graphs attached are using NSIDC daily data from Wipneus

[WildFit]

Thanks for the relentess work, who said there is no cliff ahead? I think it was yeasterday 

[gerontocrat]

Just when we need JAXA data it ain't there - needed for comparison with the NSIDC daily extent losses listed here:-
- 30 June +19k
-  1 July   - 210k (mask change)   
-  2 July   - 351k     
-  3 July   - 231k

NSIDC Total AREA as at 03-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,936,780 KM2         

Total Area           6,936,780    km2       -64,354    km2   <   2010's average.  271,981    km2   >   2020  273,854    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -121    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -60    k   loss Central Seas___   -61    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____   -11    k   loss Barents ______   -4    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____    26    k   gain CAA_________    13    k   gain East Siberian__   -11    k   loss Central Arctic__   -38    k   loss Laptev_______   -32    k   loss Kara_________   -21    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 121 k, 4 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 125 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 64 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 139 k more than 2016         
- Area is 274 k more than 2019         
- Area is 272 k more than 2020          
- Area is 451 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,254,355 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 181 k, 64 k more than the 2010's average loss of 117k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 170 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 36 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 31 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 50 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 112 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

No JAXA data so here is the NSIDC extent data in the same format

NSIDC (5-day trailing average) ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  9,254,355 KM2 as at 03-Jul-2021

- Extent loss on this day 181k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 117k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,324 k, which is 160 k, 3% more than the 10 year average of 5,164 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  50 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  31 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  36 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  112 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  170 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 50.4% of extent losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 73 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-Extent-1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 4.18 million km2, 0.79 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.39 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Last two days strong sea ice extent losses make a big difference.
But will it continue?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Sea Ice Area Graphs from NSIDC Data

High Arctic still very much the laggard
High Arctic Area - 10th lowest
Peripheral Seas Area - 4th lowest.

A contrast between the Atlantic Front / Russian side & the Pacific / North American side.
Laptev Sea - after a pause recommences strong sea ice area loss. 2nd lowest, 2020 lowest.
Beaufort Sea - area now above 1980's average.

[Stephan]

I finally found a sea with > 10% daily loss - the Laptev Sea.
And Hudson and Baffin aren't too far away of this value.

[gerontocrat]

I finally found a sea with > 10% daily loss - the Laptev Sea.
And Hudson and Baffin aren't too far away of this value.

Hullo Stephan,

I left it for you to find.

Meanwhile, the last two days daily sea ice extent losses of 582k (NSIDC daily data) propel Sea Ice Extent to lowest in the satellite record (while sea ice area lags by about 0.5 million km2). What will the JAXA data say?

[halligator]

It's 7 minutes past the outage window for JAXA's electrical inspection. Still down.

┗|｀O′|┛

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1^st, 2021:

"Our service will be stopped from July 2nd 9:00 JST to 5th 13:00 JST, 2021 by planned electrical outage for legal inspection."

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1409658617695924232

They have not re establish the service.
I am going to bed. If someone else makes the post.
Thank you.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[halligator]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1^st, 2021:

"Our service will be stopped from July 2nd 9:00 JST to 5th 13:00 JST, 2021 by planned electrical outage for legal inspection."

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1409658617695924232

They have not re establish the service.
I am going to bed. If someone else makes the post.
Thank you.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

IT'S BACK!

7/02 8.78 mil km2 170,000km2 decline
7/03 8.62 mil km2 160,000km2 decline
7/04 8.47 mil km2 150,000km2 decline

IDK how juan gets more significant figures. I assume he downloads a dataset that goes into more detail than the graph on the website.

Either way, the melt seems to be speeding up. Hold on to your butts.

[zufall]

IDK how juan gets more significant figures. I assume he downloads a dataset that goes into more detail than the graph on the website.

There is a download button "Download to sea ice extent data (CSV file)" below the first section.

- July 2 extent: 8,783,728 km², down 166,540 km² from July 1.
- July 3 extent: 8,617,800 km², down 165,928 km² from July 2.
- July 4 extent: 8,466,628 km², down 151,172 km² from July 3.

Now we are lowest for the day.

[Stephan]

The top 12 list as of July 04 JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent
All values in M km²
2021     8.47
2020      8.51
2016      8.60
2019      8.60
2010      8.62
2017      8.66
2012      8.67
2014      8.70
2011      8.71
(2010s   8.80)
2007      8.93
2006      9.02
2013      9.05
(2000s   9.59)
(1990s 10.35)
(1980s 11.02)

[pikaia]

I finally found a sea with > 10% daily loss - the Laptev Sea.
And Hudson and Baffin aren't too far away of this value.

On July 2nd Laptev was 349,731, on July 3rd it was only 31,868 lower, so less than 10%!

[gerontocrat]

The return of JAXA confirms the NSIDC data trend, except in that the NSIDC daily extent losses for the 2nd and 3rd July were even higher.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  8,466,628 KM2 as at 04-Jul-2021

- Extent loss on this day 151k, 63 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 88k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 5,771 k, which is 337 k, 6.2% more than the 10 year average of 5,433 k.

- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record

- Extent is  40 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  135 k LESS than  2019,
- Extent is  132 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  208 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  331 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 54.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and 72 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2021 of 3.87 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 3th lowest in the satellite record

To equal the 2020 minimum of 3.55 million km2 requires further melting of  4.91 million km2, 6.8% above the 10 year average remaining melt.

To equal the linear trend 2021 minimum of 3.93 million KM2 requires further melting of  +4.54 million KM2, -1.4% less than the 10 year average remaining melt.
_______________________________________________________________
The return of JAXA confirms the NSIDC data trend, except in that the NSIDC daily extent losses for the 2nd and 3rd July were even higher. I am surprised at the size of these losses, given the weather conditions of late in the Arctic.

This is the first time this year that the simple projection results in a minimum of less than the linear trend value for the 2021 minimum.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 04-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,814,859 KM2         

Total Area           6,814,859    km2       -74,255    km2   <   2010's average.  365,482    km2   >   2020  290,378    km2   >   2019           Total Change   -122    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -58    k   loss Central Seas___   -63    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -27    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Greenland____   -9    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -3    k   loss Beaufort_____    11    k   gain CAA_________    21    k   gain East Siberian__   -24    k   loss Central Arctic__   -23    k   loss Laptev_______   -31    k   loss Kara_________   -15    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 122 k, 5 k less than the last 10 years average loss of 127 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 74 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 115 k more than 2016         
- Area is 290 k more than 2019         
- Area is 365 k more than 2020          
- Area is 420 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 04-Jul-2021 (5 day trailing average) 9,059,708 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 195 k, 75 k more than the 2010's average loss of 120k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 255 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 61 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 106 k less than 2019         
- EXTENT is 84 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 26 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

Freegrass is right in that in the High Arctic sea ice concentration in the last 10 days has increased to well above the 2010's average.

What that means for remaining melt is a different question, and depends on the state of the ice that has been concentrated.

[gerontocrat]

A look at the peripheral seas that have some melting left... (only a week or three to go)

Hudson - speeding up,
Baffin - ditto

Greenland Sea - just made it to lowest in the satellite record.
Barents - remaining dribs and drabs to go.

[Juan C. García]

Thank you all for your posts. I decided that, given the extraordinary drop that we had on the beginning of July, it is worth value to post in my format.

Looking at the graph, I think that 2021 will be the lowest or the 2^nd lowest in the following 4 days.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 4^th, 2021:
     8,466,628 km², a drop of -151,172 km².
     2021 is the lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.