2021 Sea ice area and extent data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 6^th, 2021:
     5,383,313 km², an increase of 54,879 km².
     2021 is now 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,383,313 KM2 as at 06-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 55k, 19 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 74k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 770 k, which is 130 k, 14.4% less than the 10 year average of 900 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,061 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  509 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  51 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,241 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  144 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 9.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 153 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.53 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 06-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,166,491 KM2         

Total Area           4,166,491    km2        187,656    km2   >   2010's average.  844,567    km2   >   2020  374,577    km2   >   2019           Total Change    84    k   gain Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain Central Seas___    75    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    2    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    4    k   gain Beaufort_____    23    k   gain CAA_________    7    k   gain East Siberian__    1    k   gain Central Arctic__    31    k   gain Laptev_______    6    k   gain Kara_________    3    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 84 k, 47 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 37 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 188 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 527 k more than 2016         
- Area is 375 k more than 2019         
- Area is 845 k more than 2020          
- Area is 933 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 06-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,519,897 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 53 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 176 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 220 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 962 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 176 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,279 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 7^th, 2021:
     5,470,028 km², an increase of 86,715 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,470,028 KM2 as at 07-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 87k, 1 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 86k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 857 k, which is 129 k, 13.1% less than the 10 year average of 986 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,110 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  554 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  119 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,246 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  141 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 9.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 152 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.53 million km2, 0.65 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 07-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,258,001 KM2         

Total Area           4,258,001    km2        226,125    km2   >   2010's average.  893,275    km2   >   2020  448,396    km2   >   2019           Total Change    92    k   gain Peripheral Seas    10    k   gain Central Seas___    81    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    2    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    6    k   gain Beaufort_____    20    k   gain CAA_________    8    k   gain East Siberian__    0    k   gain Central Arctic__    35    k   gain Laptev_______    7    k   gain Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 92 k, 41 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 51 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 226 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 625 k more than 2016         
- Area is 448 k more than 2019         
- Area is 893 k more than 2020          
- Area is 959 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,579,953 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 60 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 53k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 180 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 264 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 972 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 180 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,270 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 8^th, 2021:
     5,617,868 km², a century break increase of 147,840 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,617,868 KM2 as at 08-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 148k, 75 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 73k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,005 k, which is 54 k, 5.1% less than the 10 year average of 1,059 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,214 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  684 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  105 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,303 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  208 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 10.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 151 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.60 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 08-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,351,600 KM2         

Total Area           4,351,600    km2        257,581    km2   >   2010's average.  942,539    km2   >   2020  537,801    km2   >   2019           Total Change    94    k   gain Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain Central Seas___    78    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    11    k   gain Barents ______    2    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    7    k   gain Beaufort_____    13    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__    6    k   gain Central Arctic__    35    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 94 k, 33 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 61 k         
         
- Area is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 258 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 709 k more than 2016         
- Area is 538 k more than 2019         
- Area is 943 k more than 2020          
- Area is 983 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 08-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,655,790 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 76 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average gain of 68k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 184 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 312 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,010 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 184 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,262 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 9^th, 2021:
     5,719,912 km², a century break increase of 102,044 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,719,912 KM2 as at 09-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 102k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,107 k, which is 31 k, 2.7% less than the 10 year average of 1,138 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,248 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  752 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  121 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,313 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  226 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 11.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 150 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.63 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 09-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,392,494 KM2         

Total Area           4,392,494    km2        226,659    km2   >   2010's average.  934,375    km2   >   2020  561,440    km2   >   2019           Total Change    41    k   gain Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain Central Seas___    35    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____    5    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic__    16    k   gain Laptev_______    4    k   gain Kara_________    3    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 41 k, 30 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 71 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 227 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 723 k more than 2016         
- Area is 561 k more than 2019         
- Area is 934 k more than 2020          
- Area is 953 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,686,622 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 31 k, 42 k less than the 2010's average gain of 73k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 139 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 320 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 994 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 139 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,215 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 10^th, 2021:
     5,805,353 km², an increase of 85,441 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,805,353 KM2 as at 10-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 85k, 7 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,192 k, which is 24 k, 2.0% less than the 10 year average of 1,216 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,258 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  760 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  101 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,289 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  226 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 12.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 149 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.63 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,434,216 KM2         

Total Area           4,434,216    km2        192,956    km2   >   2010's average.  910,234    km2   >   2020  564,528    km2   >   2019           Total Change    42    k   gain Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain Central Seas___    38    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    4    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    4    k   gain Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss CAA_________    6    k   gain East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic__    14    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 42 k, 32 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 74 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 193 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 720 k more than 2016         
- Area is 565 k more than 2019         
- Area is 910 k more than 2020          
- Area is 920 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,734,158 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 48 k, 27 k less than the 2010's average gain of 75k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 106 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 349 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 984 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 106 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,166 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 11^th, 2021:
     5,941,967 km², a century break increase of 136,614 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,941,967 KM2 as at 11-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 137k, 46 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 91k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,329 k, which is 21 k, 1.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,308 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,305 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  760 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  46 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,260 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  264 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 13.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 148 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.68 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Ignore the last 2 days postings of NSIDC 5-day data. Looks like NSIDC published duff data e.g.
Sea ice area daily change...
                         Posted last 2 days              Revised data
9th October            +41k                                +75k
10th October          +42k                                +81k

NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,603,864 KM2         

Total Area           4,603,864    km2        282,217    km2   >   2010's average.  999,926    km2   >   2020  690,436    km2   >   2019           Total Change    97    k   gain Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain Central Seas___    88    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    10    k   gain Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    15    k   gain Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    5    k   gain East Siberian__    22    k   gain Central Arctic__    37    k   gain Laptev_______    1    k   gain Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 97 k, 20 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 77 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 282 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 839 k more than 2016         
- Area is 690 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1000 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,015 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,897,225 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 88 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average gain of 80k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 182 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 500 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,086 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 182 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,213 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 12^th, 2021:
     6,046,546 km², a century break increase of 104,579 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,046,546 KM2 as at 12-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 105k, 5 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 100k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,434 k, which is 26 k, 1.9% more than the 10 year average of 1,407 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,302 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  787 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  61 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,251 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  272 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 14.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 147 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.68 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,712,437 KM2         

Total Area           4,712,437    km2        303,121    km2   >   2010's average.  1,034,610    km2   >   2020  741,594    km2   >   2019           Total Change    109    k   gain Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas___    95    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    11    k   gain Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    13    k   gain Beaufort_____    4    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    29    k   gain Central Arctic__    38    k   gain Laptev_______    3    k   gain Kara_________    4    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 109 k, 27 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 82 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 303 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 882 k more than 2016         
- Area is 742 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1035 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,060 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,993,699 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 96 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 84k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 186 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 566 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,123 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 186 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,205 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 13^th, 2021:
     6,125,263 km², an increase of 78,717 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,125,263 KM2 as at 13-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 79k, 20 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 99k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,512 k, which is 6 k, 0.4% more than the 10 year average of 1,506 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,301 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  764 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  88 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,214 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  255 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 15.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 146 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.66 million km2, 0.79 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
In the first table (Arc1) note the difference between the projection based on the last 10 uears remaining freeze and that of the last 5 years remaining freeze.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 13-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,820,881 KM2         

Total Area           4,820,881    km2        319,474    km2   >   2010's average.  1,058,260    km2   >   2020  780,905    km2   >   2019           Total Change    108    k   gain Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain Central Seas___    103    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______   -2    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    9    k   gain Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    8    k   gain East Siberian__    34    k   gain Central Arctic__    34    k   gain Laptev_______    8    k   gain Kara_________    4    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 108 k, 21 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 87 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 319 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 926 k more than 2016         
- Area is 781 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1058 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,101 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 13-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,079,179 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 85 k, 0 k more than the 2010's average gain of 85k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 181 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 622 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,127 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 181 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,171 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 14^th, 2021:
     6,181,280 km², an increase of 56,017 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,181,280 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 56k, 62 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 118k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,568 k, which is 56 k, 3.5% less than the 10 year average of 1,625 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,276 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  658 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  94 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,079 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  194 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 16.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 145 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.60 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 14-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 4,930,347 KM2         

Total Area           4,930,347    km2        335,634    km2   >   2010's average.  1,079,219    km2   >   2020  824,606    km2   >   2019           Total Change    109    k   gain Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain Central Seas___    102    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    0    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    8    k   gain Beaufort_____    12    k   gain CAA_________    9    k   gain East Siberian__    38    k   gain Central Arctic__    22    k   gain Laptev_______    10    k   gain Kara_________    3    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 109 k, 18 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 91 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 336 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 969 k more than 2016         
- Area is 825 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1079 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,118 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,165,390 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 86 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average gain of 92k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 170 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 666 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,134 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 170 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,101 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 15^th, 2021:
     6,265,514 km², an increase of 84,234 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,265,514 KM2 as at 15-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 84k, 40 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 124k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,653 k, which is 97 k, 5.5% less than the 10 year average of 1,749 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,327 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  548 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  89 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  875 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  143 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 17.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 144 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.56 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,031,151 KM2         

Total Area           5,031,151    km2        337,806    km2   >   2010's average.  1,102,700    km2   >   2020  867,399    km2   >   2019           Total Change    101    k   gain Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain Central Seas___    97    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    6    k   gain Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    5    k   gain Beaufort_____    11    k   gain CAA_________    6    k   gain East Siberian__    46    k   gain Central Arctic__    14    k   gain Laptev_______    12    k   gain Kara_________    3    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 101 k, 4 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 97 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 338 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 1001 k more than 2016         
- Area is 867 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1103 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,095 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,253,144 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 88 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average gain of 100k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 156 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 691 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,147 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 156 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 1,013 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[gerontocrat]

JAXA sea ice extent data - a bit more

With just over a month of the freezing season done, a quick look at progress to data.

The first graph looks at sea ice extent daily change over the whole freezing season - using 7 day averages to smooth the data a bit.

So far sea ice extent gains have been fairly average. Of note is the extremely low daily gains in October last year that lead to a record low October 2020 monthly average (followed by extremely high gains in early November) and in contrast the rapid increases in sea ice extent in October 2012.

The 2nd graph contains the October monthly averages. For Oct 21 that includes actual gains to Oct 15th and average gains to end October. The result looks like being 500k above the long-term linear trend, somewhat less than in Sept 21.

The extremely low 2020 sea ice extent compared with the above trend extent in 2021 is tending to accelerate the increase in the 365 day trailing average extent, which at this date is 276k above the record low in March 21 and 207k above the long-term linear trend.

early days

click images to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16^th, 2021:
     6,417,838 km², a century break increase of 152,324 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,417,838 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 152k, 47 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 105k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,805 k, which is 50 k, 2.7% less than the 10 year average of 1,855 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,489 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  637 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  45 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  775 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  174 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 18.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 143 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.61 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 16-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,118,622 KM2         

Total Area           5,118,622    km2        327,194    km2   >   2010's average.  1,139,881    km2   >   2020  898,679    km2   >   2019           Total Change    88    k   gain Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain Central Seas___    83    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    3    k   gain Barents ______    1    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    5    k   gain Beaufort_____    9    k   gain CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    53    k   gain Central Arctic__    2    k   gain Laptev_______    12    k   gain Kara_________    4    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 88 k, 7 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 95 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 327 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 1030 k more than 2016         
- Area is 899 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1140 k more than 2020          
- Area is 1,023 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,354,247 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 102 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average gain of 107k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 149 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 709 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,188 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 149 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 932 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 17^th, 2021:
     6,582,422 km², a century break increase of 164,584 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,582,422 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 165k, 52 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,970 k, which is 2 k, 0.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,968 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,623 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  810 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  7 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  778 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  217 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 19.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 142 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.66 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 17-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,204,003 KM2         

Total Area           5,204,003    km2        314,025    km2   >   2010's average.  1,171,839    km2   >   2020  929,023    km2   >   2019           Total Change    84    k   gain Peripheral Seas    0    k   gain Central Seas___    84    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______    0    k   gain Bering _______    2    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    1    k   gain Barents ______   -0    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    9    k   gain Beaufort_____    6    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    60    k   gain Central Arctic__   -10    k   loss Laptev_______    13    k   gain Kara_________    3    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 84 k, 13 k less than the last 10 years average gain of 97 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 314 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 1065 k more than 2016         
- Area is 929 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1172 k more than 2020          
- Area is 914 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,482,893 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 127 k, 13 k more than the 2010's average gain of 114k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 161 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 765 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,257 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 161 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 846 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 18^th, 2021:
     6,752,933 km², a century break increase of 170,511 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,752,933 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 171k, 37 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 134k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,140 k, which is 38 k, 1.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,102 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,753 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  884 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  24 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  784 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  250 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 20.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 141 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.70 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

I am deleting the data in this posting of NSIDC data at 18th October.
The NSIDC data file was obviously full of junk data

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 19^th, 2021:
     6,940,339 km², a century break increase of 187,406 km².
     2021 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  6,940,339 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 187k, 54 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 133k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,327 k, which is 93 k, 4.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,235 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,874 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  930 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  10 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  810 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  297 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 140 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.75 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 18th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
In 2020, October 2020 was heading to be the lowest monthly average in the satellite record.
This October's monthly average is likely to be 1.5 million km2 above that of October 2020.
On this day sea ice extent is nearly 1.9 million km2 more than a year ago.

2021 is not an average year.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 5,410,261 KM2         

Total Area           5,410,261    km2        303,352    km2   >   2010's average.  1,279,376    km2   >   2020  967,031    km2   >   2019           Total Change    113    k   gain Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain Central Seas___    111    k   gain           Peripheral Regions          Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss Bering _______    0    k   gain Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss St Lawrence___    -    k   loss Greenland____    6    k   gain Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Regions          Chukchi______    15    k   gain Beaufort_____    12    k   gain CAA_________   -7    k   loss East Siberian__    67    k   gain Central Arctic__   -6    k   loss Laptev_______    22    k   gain Kara_________    10    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 113 k, 3 k more than the last 10 years average gain of 110 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 303 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 1151 k more than 2016         
- Area is 967 k more than 2019         
- Area is 1279 k more than 2020          
- Area is 727 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Oct-2021 (5 day trailing average) 6,773,103 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 147 k, 26 k more than the 2010's average gain of 121k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 198 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 878 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 1,456 k more than 2019         
- EXTENT is 198 k more than 2020          
- EXTENT is 729 k more than 2012         
         
click on image to enlarge         

[Phil.]

"In 2020, October 2020 was heading to be the lowest monthly average in the satellite record.
This October's monthly average is likely to be 1.5 million km2 above that of October 2020.
On this day sea ice extent is nearly 1.9 million km2 more than a year ago.

2021 is not an average year."

There is an interesting similarity with the daily data you plot for 2012 and 2020 though.  The large swings in gains and losses at this time of year.  2021 is currently swinging up as 2012 did, while 2020 was swinging down, later the situations switched.  It'll be interesting to see if those trends continue.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 20^th, 2021:
     7,113,010 km², a century break increase of 172,671 km².
     2021 is 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,113,010 KM2 as at 20-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 173k, 65 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 108k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,500 k, which is 157 k, 6.7% more than the 10 year average of 2,343 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  1,985 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  977 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  84 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  764 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  360 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 23.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 139 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.81 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 19th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC data - something is not working. Data files now only have extent & area figures to the 18th October.

Looks like more serious than the occasional blip we are used to.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 21^st, 2021:
     7,209,003 km², an increase of 95,993 km².
     2021 is 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,209,003 KM2 as at 21-Oct-2021

- Extent gain on this day 96k, 22 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 118k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,596 k, which is 135 k, 5.5% more than the 10 year average of 2,461 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest  in the 43 year satellite record

- Extent is  2,017 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  961 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  95 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  628 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  340 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 24.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 138 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.79 million km2, 0.91 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2, which would be 19th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 22^nd, 2021:
     7,361,258 km², a century break increase of 152,255 km².
     2021 is 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.