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Author Topic: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 2787 times)

Stephan

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2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 03, 2021, 07:53:01 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of ca. 413.0 ppm. An increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 seems likely.

The first Sunday evening of a new decade, and time to start a new thread on Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on December 27, 2020:     415.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   412.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:               390.00 ppm
Last updated: January 3, 2021

The annual increase of 2.29 ppm is as expected last week and lower than the 10 y average of 2.51 ppm/a.

Last week returned to stable values. As usual for this time of the year the values increase from day to day.

Outlook:
The first week of 2020 had an average of 413.0 ppm. Therefore I expect an annual increase of 2.40 ± 0.20 ppm in the forthcoming week.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2021, 06:51:45 PM »
Outlook:
The first week of 2020 had an average of 413.0 ppm. Therefore I expect an annual increase of 2.40 ± 0.20 ppm in the forthcoming week.

It is time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 weekly average.

Week beginning on January 3, 2021:     415.25 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           391.73 ppm
Last updated: January 10, 2021

The annual increase of 1.86 ppm is much lower than expected, partly due to my not well matching guess of last year's value (413.39 instead of 413.0 ppm). The increase is also lower than the average of the last 10 years (2.35 ppm).
Jan 05 and Jan 08 had lower values than the other days, partly due to high intra-day variability.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 413.3 ppm. An increase of 2.3 ± 0.25 ppm seems to be likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2021, 06:48:29 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 413.3 ppm. An increase of 2.3 ± 0.25 ppm seems to be likely.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on January 10, 2021:     414.83 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               412.76 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            390.64 ppm
Last updated: January 17, 2021

The annual increase is at 2.07 ppm, higher than last week but lower than the 10 y average of 2.42 ppm/a. After some stable days at the beginnig of the week the last two days were "unavailable" with a very high intra-day variability.
An outlook seems not to be reasonable this week.

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wolfpack513

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2021, 12:42:39 AM »
2020’s growth rates are right in line with lagged ENSO.  A weak Niño transitioned to La Niña in 2020. However with a 4 month lag, Niña was only just starting to show by November/December: dropping CO2 growth rates. That drop will continue well into 2021.  Don’t fall for COVID as the culprit.  ENSO variability on *concentration growth rates is >>> than 4-7% drop in anthropogenic *emissions. 

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2021, 09:03:54 PM »
It is Sunday evening, and new Mauna Loa CO2 data are available.

We have gone through the little mid January minimum and go back into another increase for the next three weeks. The stability of the values has returned in the beginning of the week, so there were no "unavailable" days. But the last two days showed a peak, combined with higher intra-day fluctuations.

Week beginning on January 17, 2021:     415.18 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               413.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            391.63 ppm
Last updated: January 24, 2021

The annual increase of 2.38 1.38 ppm is almost 1 ppm lower than at the 10 y average of 2.36 ppm/a.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 413.6 ppm. Assuming that the peak will fade away an increase of 2 ppm/a should be expected.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 10:35:15 PM by Stephan »
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kassy

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2021, 09:15:15 PM »
It must be 1,38?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2021, 10:34:21 PM »
Oh yes. My math wasn't good last night. Got it fixed. Thanks.
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Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2021, 08:55:24 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 413.6 ppm. Assuming that the peak will fade away an increase of 2 ppm/a should be expected.

Sunday evening, a new CO2 weekly average has been published by NOAA.

Week beginning on January 24, 2021:     415.77 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               413.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            391.49 ppm
Last updated: January 31, 2021

The annual increase of 2.04 ppm is lower than the 10 y average of 2.43 ppm/a.
The anomalies of last week have been "repaired".
4.23 ppm to go for the threshold value of 420 ppm, given in the poll (see in 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels thread, just some more days to vote). Last year the difference between now and the highest weekly average was ca. 3.75 ppm.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of ca. 414.2 ppm (a little bit hard to estimate because of high day-to-day variations). Extrapolating the actuel trend into the near future will give us an annual increase of 1.8 ppm/a.
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kassy

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2021, 09:33:39 PM »
Next week also includes the end date of the 420 poll attached to last years thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2983.0.html

Voting closes on february 4th.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2021, 09:32:53 PM »
Thank you kassy for reminding us all. So far 36 members have given their vote, please place your bet if you haven't done so already.
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Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2021, 08:18:43 PM »
And this is the result of the poll.
38 members have made their choice, the majority (myself included) chose the "May 2021" bin. In the last weeks the annual increase rate of CO2 was below the 10 y average. If I project this behaviour onto the next months, then the winner will be one of those who voted for a bin in 2022.
See attached the screenshot of this poll, which needs two clicks to become readable.
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Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2021, 09:14:49 PM »
Here is the official January 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 average.

January 2021:       415.28 ppm
January 2020:       413.39 ppm
January 2010:           391.33 ppm
Last updated: February 5, 2021

The annual increase of 1.89 ppm is lower than the 10 y average (2.39 ppm/a), a trend that has already manifested in the weekly average evaluation.

I set an index of 100 for the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. Compared to that January 2021 is at 122.6.
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Gerntocratis#1

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2021, 01:12:00 AM »
Looks like there is a new all-time record high daily co2 concentration at Mauna Loa.

419.12 ppm for February 4, 2021.

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2021, 07:43:20 AM »
This is a sudden spike which should be flagged as an outlier. I am sure the values will return back to those of the last week.
See the hourly and daily averages of the last month.
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grixm

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2021, 08:51:46 AM »
I hope it holds, that random spike in 2018 having the record on co2levels.org has been bothering me  ;D

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2021, 05:18:52 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of ca. 414.2 ppm (a little bit hard to estimate because of high day-to-day variations). Extrapolating the actuel trend into the near future will give us an annual increase of 1.8 ppm/a.

Sunday evening the latest weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average has been published:

Week beginning on January 31, 2021:     417.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                414.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             392.19 ppm
Last updated: February 7, 2021

The annual increase is 2.62 ppm, which lies above the 10 y average of 2.49 ppm/a. The increase rate is much higher than expected last week. It has been caused by the spike that has been reported about upthread. It reached its maximum on Feb 05 with 419.45 ppm, on Feb 07 the value has almost reached its pre-spike level (ca. 416.3 ppm).

Outlook:
Without any further spike the annual increase should go down to around 2.0 ppm.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2021, 12:53:51 AM »
2021’s January growth rate of ~1.9 ppm falls in line with lagged ENSO. Lowest value since the tail end of 2017-2018 La Niña. 

The high weekly value at Mauna Loa follows typical behavior from enhanced convection from passing kelvin wave, equatorial Rossby wave. Convection lifts higher than usual amounts of CO2 concentration above marine inversion. Suppressed convection does the opposite: enhances marine layer inversion.

Hefaistos

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2021, 01:48:26 AM »
Thanks wolfpack and Stephan, that you follow this and provide some depth knowledge as well!

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2021, 07:12:56 PM »
Outlook:
Without any further spike the annual increase should go down to around 2.0 ppm.

Sunday evening means a new weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on February 7, 2021:     416.91 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               414.91 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           391.64 ppm
Last updated: February 14, 2021

The annual increase of 2.00 ppm has returned to the pre-spike level. It is now again lower than the 10 y average of 2.53 ppm/a.
But a smaller spike was visible on Feb 10, Feb 13 was "unavailable".
We are now in a period of slowly decreasing values until beginning of March, after that the CO2 levels will increase again.
We are 3.09 ppm away from the threshold of 420 ppm of the poll. Last year the difference between this week and the maximum was 3.00 ppm. So it is not decided yet.

Outlook.
Next week last year averaged at 414.2 ppm. I expect an increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2021, 07:18:01 PM »
Please note that NOAA has updated its calibration method.

Quote:
"The WMO CO2 in air scale has been updated to WMO CO2 X2019. This scale revision has been retroactively applied to all calibrations performed at NOAA. Full details of the WMO CO2 X2019 scale is given in Hall et al., 2020

The WMO CO2 X2019 scale is based on 19 primary standards covering the nominal mole fraction range 250 - 800 ppm. All primary standards are natural air in high pressure aluminum cylinders. The CO2 content was modified by spiking with a 10% CO2 in natural air gas to target higher than ambient values or by trapping CO2 during a portion of the filling process to target lower than ambient values. Value assignment of the primary standards comes from repeated (approximately every 2-3 years) manometric determinations. ..."


see for more details https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccl/co2_scale.html

This new calibration method does not mean a change in CO2 levels and it does not force a re-evaluation of already measured values.
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Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2021, 05:28:04 PM »
Outlook.
Next week last year averaged at 414.2 ppm. I expect an increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm.

My Sunday evening post gives you the latest weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average.

Week beginning on February 14, 2021:     416.51 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 414.12 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              391.92 ppm
Last updated: February 21, 2021

The annual increase is 2.39 ppm, close to the 10 y average of 2.46 ppm/a.
The values finally have "recovered" from the peak two weeks ago.
Next week we will see the local end of Feb minimum, an increase of the values through March and April shall be expected after that.
We are 3.49 ppm away from the threshhold value of the poll. Last year the difference between this week and the maximum end of May has been ca. 3.4 ppm. So it is not decided yet.

Outlook:
Last year's next week saw an average of 414.0 ppm. An increase of 2.3 ppm ± 0.25 seems to be likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

interstitial

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2021, 09:47:07 PM »
Us emissions theoretical. I wonder how far off they will be from reality

Stephan

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Re: 2021 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2021, 07:01:07 PM »
Outlook:
Last year's next week saw an average of 414.0 ppm. An increase of 2.3 ppm ± 0.25 seems to be likely.

Sunday evening, time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on February 21, 2021:     416.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 413.96 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             392.32 ppm
Last updated: February 28, 2021

The annual increase of 2.35 ppm is close to the 10y average of 2.40 ppm/a.

This week was very quiet, the values were stable. We probably saw the seasonal minimum on Feb 25. A slow increase in the next week shall be expected.
We are 3.69 ppm away from the "poll value". Last year the increase from now to the annual maximum was 3.7 ppm. So it is not decided yet.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 414.0 ppm. So we should expect an annual increase of 2.3 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change