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ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #50 on: January 19, 2021, 05:26:45 PM »
Because businesses are exiting coal at a rapid rate, sparked in part by Blackrock: https://mobile.twitter.com/TimBuckleyIEEFA/status/1351390735627554819

Also, the Dems can use reconciliation in the Senate to achieve most of Biden's goals: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/budget-reconciliation-offers-democrats-pathway-to-act-on-climate-change-62118325

Manchin will go along with a great deal of it as long as he gets some "pork" for West Virginia.
Blu Ice should have mentioned these things instead of his or her innate pessimistic view
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 01:48:32 AM by ArgonneForest »

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #51 on: January 19, 2021, 07:56:05 PM »
People tend to forget that renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels.  In fact, in the US, power utilities can build new renewable power plants and shut down operating coal power plants and save money doing so.  Most of the coal-fired power plants operating in the US wont be by 2030. 

The rest of the world is in a similar situation.  Since renewables only became cheaper than fossil fuels in the past two years, the manufacturing plants needed to scale up solar and wind production are still in the planning stages.  However, global solar panel manufacturing capacity is set to increase exponentially in the next few years.

The energy transition is well underway.  The Covid recession stole the headlines last year, but the coal industry is on it's last legs and the oil and gas industry are starting to recognize that oil demand has peaked and natural gas peak demand is imminent.

In the US, the Biden administration is poised to reverse the policy changes implemented by the Trump administration within the first few days in office.  The new stimulus package to be enacted this spring will include many measures to address climate change.  And the new cabinet secretaries who will be taking office soon are in favor of many climate-friendly policies, from regenerative agriculture to shifting oil-service industries into geothermal energy.

And China recently announced it's policy to go carbon neutral by 2060.  The new five-year plan to be introduced this spring will include energy investments with that policy in place.  This winter, they've greatly curtailed coal use even though parts of the country are suffering blackouts in freezing weather.  They will be able to use their great head start in solar panel manufacturing to address the gaps in their power system.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #52 on: January 19, 2021, 08:49:35 PM »
the Us and Europe still talk like they should be aplauded for getting to net zerro by 2050. we need a ban on new ff infrastructure ice vehicles today. net zero by 2030 or 2035 should be our goal.

Trying to make sense of this. Did you mean "applauded for talking about getting to net zero by 2050"?

Talk is cheap. Anyone looking at the chart for global emissions knows there is a snowball's chance in hell of getting to zero emissions by 2050.

No nation is doing what is needed. I hold out little hope of achieving this absolutely crucial goal.

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #53 on: January 19, 2021, 09:25:40 PM »
Because businesses are exiting coal at a rapid rate, sparked in part by Blackrock: https://mobile.twitter.com/TimBuckleyIEEFA/status/1351390735627554819

Also, the Dems can use reconciliation in the Senate to achieve most of Biden's goals: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/budget-reconciliation-offers-democrats-pathway-to-act-on-climate-change-62118325

Manchin will go along with a great deal of it as long as he gets some "pork" for West Virginia.
Interstitial should have mentioned these things instead of his or her innate pessimistic view

Oh, that's cute. Have you  heard about China and India?

https://www.powermag.com/china-promotes-climate-goal-and-builds-new-coal-plants/
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-will-china-build-hundreds-of-new-coal-plants-in-the-2020s

Especially China. They added plenty of new coal capacity in the very near past and those plants will keep producing Co2 for a long long time. (1/3 of their capacity was built between 2010-20 and more than 40% between 2000-2010). 60% of India's capacity was built in the past 10 years. They won't close those for a long time, too much sunk cost.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants

Then: transportation. Most of Asia will not drive Teslas. They will drive gas and diesel cars. They don't buy new cars every 2 years. And after that, Africans will drive those used Asian cars even in 2040-50. We will need oil for decades for transportation, although likely less as time goes on

Then: renewables. To balance out renewables you need lots of gas-turbines. Better than coal but still co2 emissions.

Building/industry: we do not even know how they would reduce co2 emissions.

Agriculture: we know how to but they  are pretty reluctant to do it.

So blu ice IS totally right. This will be a very hard and slow road to reduce emissions. And BTW when a politician says "carbon neutral by 2050" it means: "yeah, I'll pay lipservice and do something that does not hurt much, but basically I don't give a damn"

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #54 on: January 19, 2021, 09:42:53 PM »
No, neither of you are right. Nor do you understand the dynamics of what is going on in India with the energy transition: https://mobile.twitter.com/TimBuckleyIEEFA/status/1351432139213058048
https://ieefa.org/ieefa-india-the-false-promise-of-second-life-coal/

So, the idea that countries are going to continue BAU until 2050 is utterly ridiculous and false.

kassy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #55 on: January 20, 2021, 01:07:13 AM »
So, the idea that countries are going to continue BAU until 2050 is utterly ridiculous and false.


That link does not support that claim at all.

Also we are not nearly doing enough and we need to do way more then stay away from BAU.
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #56 on: January 20, 2021, 01:43:03 AM »
Ah, yes it does. The idea of India going on a mega coal binge has not borne out, and it's not likely to. And there are many climate scientists and energy analysts who think RCP8.5 is no longer a likely scenario: Richard Betts, Michael Mann, Ken Caldeira, Glen Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Twila Moon, and Ruth Mottram, just to name a few.
Of course we must do more, but it is somewhat encouraging that some progress is being made. Anyone saying that countries and politicians don't care and will continue with business as usual until 2050 doesn't know what they're talking about.

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #57 on: January 20, 2021, 07:31:50 AM »
Anyone saying that countries and politicians don't care and will continue with business as usual until 2050 doesn't know what they're talking about.

You have not yet been able to prove your claim. All you did so far was telling us how stupid and wrong we are to be so cynical. Which is not really a strong argument.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #58 on: January 20, 2021, 02:03:40 PM »
Yes, I have. You've just ignored the links I presented and trotted out the same, tired talking points that don't hold relevance anymore

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #59 on: January 20, 2021, 04:57:55 PM »
Yes, I have. You've just ignored the links I presented and trotted out the same, tired talking points that don't hold relevance anymore

We must be old boomers who just don't get it. I hope you are right but unfortunately I know you are not :)

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #60 on: January 20, 2021, 05:10:38 PM »
Yes, I have. You've just ignored the links I presented and trotted out the same, tired talking points that don't hold relevance anymore

We must be old boomers who just don't get it. I hope you are right but unfortunately I know you are not :)

You don't know a thing, apparently

kassy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #61 on: January 20, 2021, 05:44:45 PM »
How relevant are they?

For the overall energy mix the question is how fast we can improve it. Then we also have to look at other sources which are harder to get rid of. Even if we *just* fixed the energy mix that would not mean we are near carbon zero overall.

Then the scenarios.

In the long term we will fall short of RCP8.5 but RCP 2.6 is also very dead.

Now the problem is that not hitting RCP 8.5 does not safe us in any way. Remember that it is basically a set of parameters used for research. So if we do not hit 8.5 then we still have to figure out were we land...RCP 4.5, 6.0? And then we will have to figure out how bad that is.

Meanwhile we will lose the Arctic Sea ice which is basically the big #1 criterium for ´dangerous climate change´ regardless of which scenario we are on. Doesn´t that sort of make ´hey we are not going 8.5´ less relevant?

It was never the border between dangerous change and us being safe just a tool.


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ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #62 on: January 20, 2021, 06:05:24 PM »
No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #63 on: January 20, 2021, 07:05:15 PM »
A reminder about the assumptions in the RCP scenarios:



Developed just over a decade ago, none of them forecast a major role for wind and solar.  They all assumed that fossil fuels would be cheaper and therefore renewables would play a minor role in the energy mix.

That's no longer true.  In 2018, renewables became cheaper than fossil fuels.  Coal use peaked in 2013 and the number of new coal power plants in the planning stages is less than 100.  It's likely that the last new coal-fired power plant will be built in the next five years and that it won't operate for it's full useful life.

Global concentrations of Carbon Dioxide are averaging about 412 ppm, which is in line with the RCP 2.6 scenario.  RCP 8.5 would have the 2020 global average at 415 ppm.




Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #64 on: January 20, 2021, 07:36:10 PM »
Also, China announced a new policy goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.  That means the growth of coal in China will be very limited.  This newspaper article (from the perspective of Australian coal exporters) sums up the future for coal in China very well:

https://theconversation.com/forget-about-the-trade-spat-coal-is-passe-in-much-of-china-and-thats-a-bigger-problem-for-australia-153300

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Forget about the trade spat – coal is passé in much of China, and that’s a bigger problem for Australia
January 19, 2021

Australian coal exports to China plummeted last year. While this is due in part to recent trade tensions between Australia and China, our research suggests coal plant closures are a bigger threat to Australia’s export coal in the long term.

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China is changing. It’s announced a firm date to reach net-zero emissions, and governments in eastern provinces don’t want polluting coal plants taking up prime real estate. It’s time Australia faced reality, and reconsidered its coal export future.

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Coal mining in China mostly occurs in the western provinces. Southeast coastal provinces are largely economically advanced and no longer produce coal. Instead, power stations in those provinces import coal from overseas.

This coal is cheaper than domestic coal, and often easier to access; transport bottlenecks in China often hinder the movement of domestic coal.

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Data from monitoring group Global Coal Tracker shows between 2015 and 2019, China closed 291 coal-fired power generation units in power plants of 30 megawatts (MW) or larger, totalling 37 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. For context, Australia decommissioned 5.5 GW of coal-fired power generation units between 2010 and 2017, and currently has 21 GW of coal-fired power stations.

The closures were driven by factors such as climate change and air pollution concern, excess coal power capacity, and China’s move away from some energy-intensive industries.

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Second, we found retired coal power stations in China had much shorter lives than the international average. Guangdong, an economically developed region of comparable economic size to Canada, illustrates the point. According to our calculation, the stations in that region had a median age of 15 years at closure. In contrast, coal plants that closed in Australia between 2010 and 2017 had a median age of 43 years.

This suggests coal power stations in China are usually retired not because they’ve reached the end of their productive lives, but rather to achieve a particular purpose.

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China’s coal exit is in part due to its strategy to peak its carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2060. Australia must realistically appraise its coal export prospects in light of the long-term threat posed by shifts in China and other East Asian nations.

Simon

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #65 on: January 20, 2021, 08:16:23 PM »
Apart from the graph axis labelling, I am somewhat puzzled by post 63. The RCP value is the radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases at the year 2100. That value is already at 3.2W/m2 and the progression seems to be tracking rcp 6.0 maybe higher. RCP 2.6 seems to be a forlorn hope.

Feel free to disagree.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #66 on: January 20, 2021, 08:17:27 PM »
And the US will rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement today, with a much more ambitious goal of a carbon-free electric grid by 2035 and being carbon neutral by 2050.  A court decision yesterday will allow President Biden to do this by Executive Order, with no need for Congressional approval.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/allanmarks/2021/01/20/court-decision-lets-biden-set-new-emissions-rules-to-meet-paris-agreement-climate-goals/?sh=58257e8d7242

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Jan 20, 2021,09:34am EST|209 views
Court Decision Lets Biden Set New Emissions Rules To Meet Paris Agreement Climate Goals
Allan Marks

Soon after Joseph R. Biden Jr. takes the oath of office today as the 46th President of the United States, he is expected to take two steps to reestablish climate change as a priority for U.S. policy, foreign and domestic. First, the United States will re-join the Paris Agreement. Second, thanks to a new court decision yesterday from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will have a clean slate to implement new rules intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants in the United States. These two steps are inextricably linked.

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On January 19, 2021, in the latest major legal decision affecting domestic regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia vacated the Affordable Clean Energy Rule that the EPA under the Trump Administration adopted in June 2019.  The case drew widespread attention, with attorneys general for most states taking part and briefs filed by Members of Congress, industry groups, labor unions and scholars. The practical effect of yesterday’s court ruling, in American Lung Association, et al. vs. EPA, is that Joe Biden’s EPA will now have the opportunity to create a new plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power plants without going through the cumbersome regulatory process of repealing the Trump era rule.

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On January 19, 2021, in the latest major legal decision affecting domestic regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia vacated the Affordable Clean Energy Rule that the EPA under the Trump Administration adopted in June 2019.  The case drew widespread attention, with attorneys general for most states taking part and briefs filed by Members of Congress, industry groups, labor unions and scholars. The practical effect of yesterday’s court ruling, in American Lung Association, et al. vs. EPA, is that Joe Biden’s EPA will now have the opportunity to create a new plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power plants without going through the cumbersome regulatory process of repealing the Trump era rule.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals in its American Lung Association decision yesterday found that both the EPA’s repeal of the 2015 Clean Power Plan and the adoption of the replacement 2019 Rule were legally flawed, stating that the EPA’s 2019 “amendment of the regulatory framework to slow the process for reduction of emissions is arbitrary and capricious.” Based on its “endangerment finding,” the EPA is required to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. The new decision in the American Lung Association case reaffirms the EPA’s 2015 finding that carbon emissions from power plants cause or contribute significantly to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.

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So, a path is open for President Biden to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonize the energy sector, and set a model for other countries participating alongside the United States, once more, in the Paris Agreement process.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #67 on: January 20, 2021, 08:34:03 PM »
Apart from the graph axis labelling, I am somewhat puzzled by post 63. The RCP value is the radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases at the year 2100. That value is already at 3.2W/m2 and the progression seems to be tracking rcp 6.0 maybe higher. RCP 2.6 seems to be a forlorn hope.

Feel free to disagree.

The RCPs consider the total of all contributions to radiative forcings, some of which are negative.  According to the 5th IPCC report in 2013, total radiative forcing was 2.29 W/m2. (NOAA's greenhouse gas index does not include the negative forcings from aerosols and land use changes).



RCP 2.6 actually assumes a peak and decline in radiative forcings, so the peak may be over 2.6 W/m2 during the middle of the century with a decrease to 2.6 by 2100.


kassy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #68 on: January 20, 2021, 08:37:28 PM »
No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

No it is not because we will lose it regardless. It will take decades to get to zero so we have decades of incoming heating and an icepack that is in a really bad state.

The ice provides it´s own isolation layer of cold water but if bigger areas are ice free for a long time that gets diluted down.

Also ice grows from ice so growing it back is not that easy.

When do you expect temperatures to cool anyway? 
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #69 on: January 20, 2021, 08:45:58 PM »
Quote
Global concentrations of Carbon Dioxide are averaging about 412 ppm, which is in line with the RCP 2.6 scenario.  RCP 8.5 would have the 2020 global average at 415 ppm.
Ken, what counts is CO2eq which is well above 415 ppm. And the main negative force, aerosols, is gonna go down fast if we transition to renewable.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #70 on: January 20, 2021, 08:47:48 PM »
China could peak CO2 emissions as early as 2025 with steep declines in the 2030s.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-chinas-march-to-net-zero-emissions-means-for-the-world/

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Wed, Jan 20, 2021
What China’s march to net-zero emissions means for the world

New Atlanticist by Larry Luxner

Joe Biden’s inauguration today as the 46th president of the United States may turn out to be the single most important milestone in the battle to reverse climate change—arguably rivaled only by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge at the United Nations General Assembly last September that his country would reach peak carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

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Carbon neutrality by 2060 is actually “not hugely ambitious for China. If you look at the current mitigation efforts underway in China, notwithstanding the recent bump-up in coal, 2060 is eminently doable,” said Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia and current head of the Asia Society. “And China’s past practice on these sorts of targets has been to under-promise and over-deliver.”

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Chinese carbon-dioxide emissions could peak around 2025

Zhang Xiliang, the director of the Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy at China’s Tsinghua University, expects his country’s carbon emissions to peak around 2025, followed by a plateau and then a sharp decline.

By 2035, he predicted, China will see a 20 percent decline in CO2 emissions relative to that peak. By 2050, it could witness more than a 70 percent decline, leading to carbon neutrality by 2060.

Furthermore, Chinese coal use will taper off after 2025, with usage of natural gas also peaking at that time and oil consumption peaking around 2030, according to Zhang. He predicted that the contribution of renewables and nuclear to China’s energy mix will reach 25 percent by 2030 and exceed 80 percent by 2060.

kassy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #71 on: January 20, 2021, 08:53:17 PM »
Apart from the graph axis labelling, I am somewhat puzzled by post 63. The RCP value is the radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases at the year 2100. That value is already at 3.2W/m2 and the progression seems to be tracking rcp 6.0 maybe higher. RCP 2.6 seems to be a forlorn hope.

Feel free to disagree.

That is very much the point.

OK we are not going to hit 8.5 but we are also missing 2.6. To save the Arctic ice we should have hit that.

You can´t just say ´we are saved´ because we do not hit the worst possible scenario we modelled. Now we have to figure out what happens at 6.0.
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #72 on: January 20, 2021, 08:55:27 PM »
No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

No it is not because we will lose it regardless. It will take decades to get to zero so we have decades of incoming heating and an icepack that is in a really bad state.

The ice provides it´s own isolation layer of cold water but if bigger areas are ice free for a long time that gets diluted down.

Also ice grows from ice so growing it back is not that easy.

When do you expect temperatures to cool anyway?

Again, this is incorrect. We are not going to lose all the sea ice year-round unless we go business-as-usual and fail to stabilize temperatures, which is clearly not going to happen.
As far as cooling goes, SRM, which is due to have a field experiment this year under SCOPEX, would achieve that. If temps cool, sea ice forms.
Also, the year-round sea ice topic has been the subject of study ad nauseam. I recommend you ask scientists Zack Labe or Samuel Hayes on Twitter before you make such claims

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #73 on: January 20, 2021, 08:56:23 PM »
Quote
Global concentrations of Carbon Dioxide are averaging about 412 ppm, which is in line with the RCP 2.6 scenario.  RCP 8.5 would have the 2020 global average at 415 ppm.
Ken, what counts is CO2eq which is well above 415 ppm. And the main negative force, aerosols, is gonna go down fast if we transition to renewable.

This not a very good argument

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #74 on: January 20, 2021, 09:14:37 PM »
Yes, I have. You've just ignored the links I presented and trotted out the same, tired talking points that don't hold relevance anymore

We must be old boomers who just don't get it. I hope you are right but unfortunately I know you are not :)

You don't know a thing, apparently

Apparently.

Fortunately, we have you here to correct our mistakes.


***
BTW, lets not forget how it started. bluice said that politicians are too slow to reduce emissions and it will be difficult to achieve targets. You came out of nowhere, simply saying (without any data or anyhing) that it is not true. When questioned, you said that the proof is that US businesses, led by Blackrock  are exiting coal, and the Dems will do wonders. No mention of other parts of the world, responsible for 80% of emissions. No mention of oil. No mention of gas. No mention of agriculture. No mention of various industries (eg. cement, or steel).

And apparently I know nothing. Apparently.


ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #75 on: January 20, 2021, 09:22:56 PM »
I gave evidence regarding coal and India, which you then chose to completely disregard. Also, you and Blu Ice trotted out the same crappy talking points to basically say nothing has been done and the world is doomed. Neither of which is true I might add. You must have fallen asleep while renewables surged globally, the EU agreed to more stringent targets, and Biden put out an aggressive climate plan.
Maybe look up the concept of reconciliation in the Senate before shooting your mouth off about what Dems can or can't do. Also, try keeping up with renewables development in China: https://mobile.twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1351916159642324994

kassy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #76 on: January 20, 2021, 09:40:30 PM »
So you think everything is going to be ok and you are adding some articles that you think prove that but as pointed out before there is more then just the energy mix that we need to work out before we get to net zero.

Remember this is AGWIG/Science so instead of singular examples post some science on when we are going to go net zero or just post your best bet.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #77 on: January 20, 2021, 10:02:50 PM »
Kassy, I've been posting information to support my conclusions. You have not been doing the same, so perhaps you should follow your own advice before calling me out

crandles

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #78 on: January 20, 2021, 11:27:33 PM »
I gave evidence regarding coal and India, which you then chose to completely disregard. Also, you and Blu Ice trotted out the same crappy talking points to basically say nothing has been done and the world is doomed. Neither of which is true I might add. You must have fallen asleep while renewables surged globally, the EU agreed to more stringent targets, and Biden put out an aggressive climate plan.
Maybe look up the concept of reconciliation in the Senate before shooting your mouth off about what Dems can or can't do. Also, try keeping up with renewables development in China: https://mobile.twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1351916159642324994

I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent. However saying they "completely disregarded" what you said when in fact what they did was point out that electricity grid is only part of our energy usage. This comes across as you ignoring them not them ignoring you.

Heating homes is much tougher than electricity. Heat pumps seem much more expensive than a ff boiler. Maybe they will get cheaper with volume, that has worked brilliantly with wind and solar electric but I am not sure we can rely on that again.

So I think you and I should admit they have a point. Yes electric is not all of our ff use but BAU has changed dramatically. Of course it would be better for climate if we did more and I want us to do more. However the economic case of being less expensive to do things about climate than suffer the consequences was based on BAU scenarios that are now clearly way off what we should expect and obviously had way worse climate outcomes under the assumed BAU which made action to avoid the worst look cheap. Now we know BAU has changed dramatically the economic case needs to be re-examined and made again.

 

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #79 on: January 20, 2021, 11:35:16 PM »
“Renewables will play an increasingly important role, with their share of the overall energy mix rising to 15% in 2040,” the AMP Capital report says.

https://www.ampcapital.com/content/dam/capital/04-articles/insto-edition/2019/012020%20Energy%20Infra%20Whitepaper_Spreads.pdf

We need far more wide-reaching changes than are happening now.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #80 on: January 20, 2021, 11:39:57 PM »
There are many incorrect assumptions being made about the science and impacts of climate change on this thread.  These often lead to people concluding that we are already doomed, when it is quite clear that the situation has improved dramatically in the past two years and we can limit global warming to well under 2 degrees C.

One of the reasons to keep the temperature increase well under 2 degrees C is that the incidences of loss of the Arctic sea ice decrease from about once per decade at 2 C versus once per century at 1.5 C.

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

Quote
The probability of a sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean5  during summer is substantially higher at 2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming (medium confidence). Model simulations suggest that at least one sea-ice-free Arctic summer is expected every 10 years for global warming of 2°C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years under 1.5°C (medium confidence). An intermediate temperature overshoot will have no long- term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage, and hysteresis is not expected (high confidence). {3.3.8, 3.4.4.7}

Quote
A substantial number of pre-AR5 studies found that there is no indication of hysteresis behaviour of Arctic sea ice under decreasing temperatures following a possible overshoot of a long-term temperature target (Holland et al., 2006; Schröder and Connolley, 2007; Armour et al., 2011; Sedláček et al., 2011; Tietsche et al., 2011; Boucher et al., 2012; Ridley et al., 2012). In particular, the relationship between Arctic sea ice coverage and GMST was found to be indistinguishable between a warming scenario and a cooling scenario. These results have been confirmed by post-AR5 studies (Li et al., 2013; Jahn, 2018), which implies high confidence that an intermediate temperature overshoot has no long-term consequences for Arctic sea ice coverage.

The Jahn, 2018 study addresses both the probabilities of ice-free states and whether they're reversible.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0127-8

Quote
Jahn, A. Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming. Nature Clim Change 8, 409–413 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8

Abstract

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #81 on: January 20, 2021, 11:45:19 PM »
I gave evidence regarding coal and India, which you then chose to completely disregard. Also, you and Blu Ice trotted out the same crappy talking points to basically say nothing has been done and the world is doomed. Neither of which is true I might add. You must have fallen asleep while renewables surged globally, the EU agreed to more stringent targets, and Biden put out an aggressive climate plan.
Maybe look up the concept of reconciliation in the Senate before shooting your mouth off about what Dems can or can't do. Also, try keeping up with renewables development in China: https://mobile.twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1351916159642324994

I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent. However saying they "completely disregarded" what you said when in fact what they did was point out that electricity grid is only part of our energy usage. This comes across as you ignoring them not them ignoring you.

Heating homes is much tougher than electricity. Heat pumps seem much more expensive than a ff boiler. Maybe they will get cheaper with volume, that has worked brilliantly with wind and solar electric but I am not sure we can rely on that again.

So I think you and I should admit they have a point. Yes electric is not all of our ff use but BAU has changed dramatically. Of course it would be better for climate if we did more and I want us to do more. However the economic case of being less expensive to do things about climate than suffer the consequences was based on BAU scenarios that are now clearly way off what we should expect and obviously had way worse climate outcomes under the assumed BAU which made action to avoid the worst look cheap. Now we know BAU has changed dramatically the economic case needs to be re-examined and made again.

 

Well-said, Crandles. Much more needs to be done, for sure. That being said, if Biden can get his plan through the Senate (it will sail through the House), then it would be an excellent start

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #82 on: January 21, 2021, 12:01:21 AM »
Quote
Global concentrations of Carbon Dioxide are averaging about 412 ppm, which is in line with the RCP 2.6 scenario.  RCP 8.5 would have the 2020 global average at 415 ppm.
Ken, what counts is CO2eq which is well above 415 ppm. And the main negative force, aerosols, is gonna go down fast if we transition to renewable.

This misunderstanding about CO2eq often pops up on this forum.  CO2eq is a way to take all of the greenhouse gas forcings and combine them into one number.  The IPCC reports take the concentrations of each greenhouse gas and add their forcings.  This is what I showed in the IPCC chart with the individual forcings graphed.

Spikes in temperature due to the decrease of aerosols from the reductions of fossil fuel power sources have been demonstrated to be false.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/cutting-air-pollution-would-not-cause-near-term-spike-in-global-warming

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18 September 2019
Cutting air pollution would not cause ‘near-term spike’ in global warming

A reduction in air pollution brought about by shifting away from fossil fuels would not inadvertently cause a short-term acceleration of global warming, a new study says.

Earlier modelling work using scenarios where fossil-fuel burning ends instantaneously had suggested that a rapid decline in aerosol emissions could remove their cooling impact on the climate and cause a spike in warming.

However, the new study, published in Nature, finds that “even the most aggressive” shift from fossil fuels to clean alternatives to limit warming to 1.5C “provides benefits for climate change mitigation and air quality” at all timescales.

Quote
However, there is a key limitation with these studies, says Smith, in that they typically assume an instantaneous removal of all emissions. This is not “realistic in our complex, interdependent world”, he says, which would take much longer to phase out fossil fuels.

In the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, “frequently asked question 12.3” (pdf) states that “eliminating short-lived negative forcings from sulphate aerosols at the same time (e.g. by air pollution reduction measures) would cause a temporary warming of a few tenths of a degree”.

The accompanying figure (see below) showed this spike in global surface warming (blue dotted line) compared to constant emissions (red) and if the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was held constant at present-day levels (grey).



Quote
The model simulations show that, even under the most rapid transition away from fossil fuels, “it takes a good deal of time to actually move the entire planet’s energy systems to clean energy”, says lead author Prof Drew Shindell, professor of earth sciences at Duke University.

The results suggest that, under these more realistic scenarios, “global average temperatures do not show a near-term spike in warming”, the paper says.

Quote
While the scenarios show some continued warming in the near term, “none exhibit an acceleration of warming to 0.3C or higher’, the paper says, and “all show a rapid decline in warming rates starting in the 2020s” with some showing cooling by the 2040.

Here's the study referred to in the article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1554-z#citeas

Quote
Shindell, D., Smith, C.J. Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels. Nature 573, 408–411 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1554-z

Abstract

The combustion of fossil fuels produces emissions of the long-lived greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and of short-lived pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, that contribute to the formation of atmospheric aerosols1. Atmospheric aerosols can cool the climate, masking some of the warming effect that results from the emission of greenhouse gases1. However, aerosol particulates are highly toxic when inhaled, leading to millions of premature deaths per year2,3. The phasing out of unabated fossil-fuel combustion will therefore provide health benefits, but will also reduce the extent to which the warming induced by greenhouse gases is masked by aerosols. Because aerosol levels respond much more rapidly to changes in emissions relative to carbon dioxide, large near-term increases in the magnitude and rate of climate warming are predicted in many idealized studies that typically assume an instantaneous removal of all anthropogenic or fossil-fuel-related emissions1,4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we show that more realistic modelling scenarios do not produce a substantial near-term increase in either the magnitude or the rate of warming, and in fact can lead to a decrease in warming rates within two decades of the start of the fossil-fuel phase-out. Accounting for the time required to transform power generation, industry and transportation leads to gradually increasing and largely offsetting climate impacts of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, with the rate of warming further slowed by reductions in fossil-methane emissions. Our results indicate that even the most aggressive plausible transition to a clean-energy society provides benefits for climate change mitigation and air quality at essentially all decadal to centennial timescales.



sidd

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #83 on: January 21, 2021, 12:23:24 AM »
Coal India, one of the largest coal producers in the world plans 20 GW of solar. They know whats coming.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/coal-india-sets-20-gw-solar-power-generation-target-in-next-10-years-2540315.html


sidd

wili

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #84 on: January 21, 2021, 03:09:39 AM »
cran is much more polite than I
« Last Edit: January 21, 2021, 04:11:28 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #85 on: January 21, 2021, 04:12:20 AM »
cran is much more polite than I

Are you addressing this to me?

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #86 on: January 21, 2021, 07:10:44 AM »

I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent.

 

Being realistic is not equivalent to expecting climate catastrophe. I, for one, am quite cynical about politicians, but at the same time expect humanity to completely give up fossil in due time. I expect no catastrophe whatsoever. But I expect decades of warming still, because going to zero carbon is a very long process.

eg:
- 95% of cars sold in 2021 are using gas/diesel. Those cars will still be on the roads in 2050 (in India, Africa, etc).
- many industrial processes are hard to decarbonise
- gas turbines are needed to counterbalance volatile solar/wind
- newly built coal plants will NOT be closed for a long time (at least a decade) due to sunk costs

Will emissions start to go down some time in the 20s? Hopefully yes (but considering that oil will at least be stable, gas will go up, coal down and industrial and agri likely up that is not sure at all). Shall we hit zero by 2030-40? Absolutely not. Not even by 2050.

2015-20 warmed +0,29 C vs 2005-10. Considering Arctic feedback, it is hard to see how that will not be more in the next decade, since emissions are higher now than 10 yrs ago. We are already +1,2 C above pre industrial. This means that by 2030 we shall hit at least +1,5 C. If you are optimistic then you can argue that warming will slow after this, so maybe +0,2 C and +0,15 C and +0,1 C the following decades. This still means that we will reach around +2 C by 2060 - provided that there are no sudden climate impacts.

I don't think this will make the Earth unlivable. I even think that it will be positive agriculturally for many NH midlatitude countries as they will warm by another 1,5-2 C.

 

blu_ice

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #87 on: January 21, 2021, 03:13:46 PM »
It should, but it isn't. If net zero goal is placed within a decade, people currently in power would have to make the tough decisions. They don't want to do that.

As net zero goal is placed further into the future, it's all business as usual until the powers-that-be conveniently retire. Technology may reduce some emissions so everybody can pretend things are being done, when in fact nothing isn't.

This is a rather simplistic and untrue explanation

Simplistic, absolutely. Untrue? I wouldn't be so sure about that.

I suppose most here agree that coal is yesterday's fuel and a revolution in energy is underway. But we disagree on it's pace. Global emissions keep on rising. We need a pandemic scale emission cuts every year.

If, as some here claim, renewable technology is soon bringing emissions to net-zero, why are governments and corporations placing their net-zero goals decades into future? I doubt their leaders are stupid. Maybe they just don't want to be held accountable on promises they cannot keep?

ArgonneForest

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #88 on: January 21, 2021, 03:28:16 PM »
It should, but it isn't. If net zero goal is placed within a decade, people currently in power would have to make the tough decisions. They don't want to do that.

As net zero goal is placed further into the future, it's all business as usual until the powers-that-be conveniently retire. Technology may reduce some emissions so everybody can pretend things are being done, when in fact nothing isn't.

This is a rather simplistic and untrue explanation

Simplistic, absolutely. Untrue? I wouldn't be so sure about that.

I suppose most here agree that coal is yesterday's fuel and a revolution in energy is underway. But we disagree on it's pace. Global emissions keep on rising. We need a pandemic scale emission cuts every year.

If, as some here claim, renewable technology is soon bringing emissions to net-zero, why are governments and corporations placing their net-zero goals decades into future? I doubt their leaders are stupid. Maybe they just don't want to be held accountable on promises they cannot keep?

Read this executive order by President Biden issued on his first day in office and tell me he doesn't care about dealing with climate change: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/

This proves your premise is untrue

crandles

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #89 on: January 21, 2021, 04:08:49 PM »

If, as some here claim, renewable technology is soon bringing emissions to net-zero, why are governments and corporations placing their net-zero goals decades into future? I doubt their leaders are stupid. Maybe they just don't want to be held accountable on promises they cannot keep?

I rather suspect a difference in understanding in what is meant by "soon".

Of course they "don't want to be held accountable on promises they cannot keep" but is this particularly relevant and problematic? If they are going to be in office for another 1-10 years and the question is whether to set the target at 20 or 25 years then this potential issue just doesn't look terribly important.

On the other side:
Some people want to warn of catastrophic consequences because they see little being done and want to encourage action. Is this a problematic? e.g. after 2012 lots here saying we are going to lose the Arctic sea ice in a decade or less and this will have huge consequences. Does joe public remember this and come to conclusion that those environmentalist are always crying wolf about impending doom and it never happens so politicians are probably right to not do anywhere near as much as environmentalists want.

I suggest better to have a good track record in predictions than be known for exaggeration.

The science seems to come to the conclusion that it gets harder and harder to remove more and more Arctic sea ice but this doesn't seem to stop people claiming we are going to have blue ocean event soon and it is going to be catastrophic.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #90 on: January 21, 2021, 06:46:32 PM »

I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent.

 

Being realistic is not equivalent to expecting climate catastrophe. I, for one, am quite cynical about politicians, but at the same time expect humanity to completely give up fossil in due time. I expect no catastrophe whatsoever. But I expect decades of warming still, because going to zero carbon is a very long process.

eg:
- 95% of cars sold in 2021 are using gas/diesel. Those cars will still be on the roads in 2050 (in India, Africa, etc).
- many industrial processes are hard to decarbonise
- gas turbines are needed to counterbalance volatile solar/wind
- newly built coal plants will NOT be closed for a long time (at least a decade) due to sunk costs

Will emissions start to go down some time in the 20s? Hopefully yes (but considering that oil will at least be stable, gas will go up, coal down and industrial and agri likely up that is not sure at all). Shall we hit zero by 2030-40? Absolutely not. Not even by 2050.

2015-20 warmed +0,29 C vs 2005-10. Considering Arctic feedback, it is hard to see how that will not be more in the next decade, since emissions are higher now than 10 yrs ago. We are already +1,2 C above pre industrial. This means that by 2030 we shall hit at least +1,5 C. If you are optimistic then you can argue that warming will slow after this, so maybe +0,2 C and +0,15 C and +0,1 C the following decades. This still means that we will reach around +2 C by 2060 - provided that there are no sudden climate impacts.

I don't think this will make the Earth unlivable. I even think that it will be positive agriculturally for many NH midlatitude countries as they will warm by another 1,5-2 C.

Be careful about stereotypes.  About half the vehicles purchased in Africa are new.  The average age of vehicle in Africa is only slightly more than the US or Europe.  And African consumers look at fuel efficiency and reliability as the most important features of the vehicles they purchase.

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/Consumer_Industrial_Products/2018-A-Consumer-Perspective-Auto-280518.pdf

And many African countries ban the importation of used vehicles that are older than 8 years.

https://ccacoalition.org/en/news/african-countries-move-toward-cleaner-car-imports

Quote
On the other hand, the East African Community is working to align standards: in 2015, Kenya banned used car imports older than eight years of age, Tanzania charges additional excise duty on used vehicles eight years of age or older (counted from the year of manufacture), and the whole EAC began to apply standardised depreciation rates to these imports.

Quote
Currently, apart from the four African countries that completely ban used car imports, 25 place a maximum age limit on imports, 10 countries ban imports over five years old and six ban imports over 10 years old.


Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #91 on: January 21, 2021, 07:10:25 PM »
Paradigm shifts in science happen slowly.  The current generation of climate scientists have been brought up with the mantra that RCP8.5 equals business as usual. It's only in the past year that the paradigm has begun to shift.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3

Quote
29 January 2020

Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading
Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.

Zeke Hausfather & Glen P. Peters

More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.

In the lead-up to the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), researchers developed four scenarios for what might happen to greenhouse-gas emissions and climate warming by 2100. They gave these scenarios a catchy title: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)1. One describes a world in which global warming is kept well below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial temperatures (as nations later pledged to do under the Paris climate agreement in 2015); it is called RCP2.6. Another paints a dystopian future that is fossil-fuel intensive and excludes any climate mitigation policies, leading to nearly 5 °C of warming by the end of the century2,3. That one is named RCP8.5.

RCP8.5 was intended to explore an unlikely high-risk future2. But it has been widely used by some experts, policymakers and the media as something else entirely: as a likely ‘business as usual’ outcome. A sizeable portion of the literature on climate impacts refers to RCP8.5 as business as usual, implying that it is probable in the absence of stringent climate mitigation. The media then often amplifies this message, sometimes without communicating the nuances. This results in further confusion regarding probable emissions outcomes, because many climate researchers are not familiar with the details of these scenarios in the energy-modelling literature.

Quote
For those making real-life decisions, the choice of scenario becomes important14,16. Emphasizing ways of adapting to an extreme RCP8.5 scenario with around 5 °C warming in 2100 is out of step with the requirement to build resilience and reduce vulnerabilities in the near-term. Most users of climate scenarios care more about the world as it is now, rather than what might have been had global emissions not slowed over the past decade7. Users focused on mitigation are keen to capitalize on emerging opportunities such as cheap renewables, or to avoid overinvesting in stranded assets in dying industries. For example, they want to know whether the rapid cost declines in renewables might make investments in fossil fuels high risk. A RCP8.5 baseline renders these applications useless, because it implies that recent climate policies and technological progress are halted or even reversed.

For policymakers, mitigation policies that depend on the assumptions underlying high-emission baseline scenarios such as RCP8.5 will seem exorbitant, because they do not incorporate the plummeting costs of many low-carbon technologies over the past decade. The marginal investments required to move from 3 °C of warming to well below 2 °C (the main Paris goal) will be much less than moving from 5 °C to well below 2 °C. A narrative of progress and opportunity can make the Paris targets seem feasible, rather than seemingly impossible.



Keep in mind that the chart above was published in January 2020, well before the drop in emissions in 2020 and the new climate commitments made later in the year and just yesterday.  China's stated policy in now to peak by 2030 and be carbon neutral in 2060.  The US stated policy is now to have a carbon free electric grid by 2035 and be carbon neutral by 2050.

RCP 2.6 is now within reach.


Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #92 on: January 21, 2021, 07:33:07 PM »
As this article written in October 2020 states, carbon emissions may have peaked in 2019.

https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/peak-co2-emissions-2019

Quote
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels May Have Peaked in 2019
Oct 16, 2020

In the 2000s, global CO2 emissions were increasing at an unprecedented rate. Global coal use was skyrocketing, and many predicted that emissions could triple by the end of the 21st century, ushering in truly nightmarish scenarios involving warming of 4℃ to 5℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Fast forward a decade and the world looks very different. Global coal use peaked in 2013 and is unlikely to pass that level again. Clean energy has become cost-competitive with fossil fuels for electricity generation in many countries, while the electrification of transportation and other sectors of the economy is picking up. It has become undeniable that the world is undergoing an energy transition, and it is quite possible that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels peaked last year in 2019, based both on our own analysis and the newly released IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020.



Quote
The decline of coal is the single most important factor driving down future emissions projections. Most prior energy modeling efforts, such as those from the IEA WEO, had suggested a world of growing — or at best stagnant — future coal use. This year’s WEO shows a dramatically different picture, where global coal use is projected to go into structural decline for the foreseeable future.

Quote
The IEA has notably reduced their projection of future global FF&I CO2 emissions through 2040 in their latest WEO report. They now expect global emissions to fall by around 6.7% in 2020 compared to 2019 levels, before recovering back to around 2019 levels by 2030 and plateauing there. The figure below shows the new 2020 WEO projection (green) compared to the same scenario in last year’s report (red).

Quote
Even these latest IEA projections may be a bit conservative. The IEA has, over time, reduced their forecast of future emissions each time a new report is released, as a result of both policy developments and a history of underestimating the rate of clean energy deployment. There is no reason to think that this trend will reverse itself in the future, particularly with China’s recent net-zero commitment, which will influence short-to-medium-term energy policy in ways not included in the latest assessment.



Again, this chart was made before China and the US made their updated climate policies to acheive carbon neutrality by 2060 and 2050 respectively.  SSP1-2.6 (the update to RCP 2.6) is within reach.

El Cid

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #93 on: January 21, 2021, 07:39:52 PM »
Thank you Ken, that is exactly what I was writing above. The 20s and 30s will see pretty much as much in emissions and likely more warming (due to Arctic feedbacks) as the 10s.

Sciguy

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #94 on: January 21, 2021, 08:04:56 PM »
Thank you Ken, that is exactly what I was writing above. The 20s and 30s will see pretty much as much in emissions and likely more warming (due to Arctic feedbacks) as the 10s.

We're currently about 1.2 C (based on five year averages, 2020 was 1.25 C) above the baseline temperature for the IPCC 1.5C Report.  Global temperatures have been increasing by 0.2 C per decade.  With three decades before we get emissions close to net zero, we'll be at 1.8C.

The key is that once we achieve zero emissions, temperatures stabilize and then begin to decrease.  So an overshoot of 1.5C looks likely, but we can keep the temperature increase to under 2.0C.  The IPCC special report on 1.5C published in 2018 outlines the impacts of this temperature range.

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/


gerontocrat

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #95 on: January 21, 2021, 09:11:27 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/21/john-kerry-climate-crisis-joe-biden-envoy

First the good news...

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John Kerry commits US to climate crisis fight

Then....

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Kerry, the former US secretary of state, acknowledged that America had been absent from the international effort to contain dangerous global heating during Donald Trump’s presidency but added that “today no country and no continent is getting the job done”.

There will need to be a “wholesale transformation of the global economy” if the world is to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, Kerry said. He said it was necessary for coal to be phased out five times faster than recent trends, the planet’s tree cover to be increased five times faster, renewable energy to be ramped up six times faster and a transition to electric vehicles to be 22 times faster than present.

“We need to all move together, because today very few are on a trajectory of the steep reductions needed to meet even current goals, let alone the targets we need to avert catastrophic damage,” Kerry said.

Optimism is fine - but needs a dose of realism to motivate kicking arse to make it happen.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #96 on: January 22, 2021, 02:26:49 AM »
The science seems to come to the conclusion that it gets harder and harder to remove more and more Arctic sea ice but this doesn't seem to stop people claiming we are going to have blue ocean event soon and it is going to be catastrophic.


It seems you are talking about area. Area and extent are easier to measure but the long term damage is measured in volume. Area has an outsize impact in controlling energy flow into and out of the ocean in any given year. Volume is so important because where there is ice most of the excess energy goes towards the phase change not temperature change.  A one meter thick ice cover is nowhere near as resistant to melting as six meter thick ice.   Volume continues to fall generally with some annual fluctuations. There is less volume than 2012 and volume breaks record lows nearly every year.


It may or may not be true that it gets harder and harder each year to remove area. I do not think that science has settled that but I do not think it is as important. Area numbers can experience significant changes with wind and other transient events while volume tends to experience less noise in the signal. 

crandles

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #97 on: January 22, 2021, 04:29:06 AM »
It seems you are talking about area.

Nope. The gompertz shape which gives a good consistent fits and applies to volume as well as area and extent.

And of course backed up by science saying things like

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The surface albedo feedback is also state dependent such that reduced cryospheric extent will reduce its magnitude in a warmer climate (Jonko et al., 2012; Block and Mauritsen, 2013, Thackeray and Hall, 2019).

https://bskiesresearch.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/wcrp_ecs_final_manuscript_2019rg000678r_final_200720.pdf
« Last Edit: January 22, 2021, 04:42:53 AM by crandles »

Simon

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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #98 on: January 22, 2021, 09:05:39 AM »
Quote Ken Feldman reply #91

Paradigm shifts in science happen slowly.  The current generation of climate scientists have been brought up with the mantra that RCP8.5 equals business as usual. It's only in the past year that the paradigm has begun to shift.

Not true. No climate scientist considered rcp 8.5 as a BAU but it is and always was a Worst Case Scenario used to model continued growth in fossil fuel use with zero increase in renewable energy.




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Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« Reply #99 on: January 22, 2021, 09:18:20 AM »
I looked at the reference and could not find your graph please clarify where it is in the reference.

I cant be sure what is plotted because the vertical axis is not labeled.