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etienne

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #100 on: January 31, 2021, 09:26:26 AM »
Not sure about the expertise of these two people, but some of their points make a lot of sense, certainly implying that the burden of proof may be much heavier for the postulants of the natural origin of SARS-CoV-2.

I guess it will be an issue that will never bee settled, excepted if it would be officially recognized. I don't know if the Chinese government keeps archives about its failures.

The process that is described could also happen without human intervention, they talk about pulling the virus in one direction by providing specific environment, not about combining DNA in order to create it . Employees of the lab could also have gotten the virus when looking for bats. Was the lab there because of the risk or was the risk there because of the lab, I guess we will never know and I don't believe that the WHO will find anything interesting.

Could anybody explain why it is so important to know where it comes from ? I feel that we know quite well now what the virus does, and I don't think it would help us to heal people. Maybe it would  scare the anti mask and anti lockdown movement, so that safety rules would be easier to implement, it wouldn't be possible to say that it is just a flu, and people might agree that a vaccine is needed in order to be protected of a human made virus.

kassy

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #101 on: January 31, 2021, 11:10:42 AM »
Well the argument for knowing where it comes from is simple.

If we know it was natural and we know the species reservoir or route it took to get into the human population we could maybe prevent similar jumps. If it came from a lab we could take measures to prevent that in the future (or better enforce them since technically the BSL labs are supposed to be safe if they do everything safe).

For the actual handling of the pandemic this does not matter at all.
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etienne

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #102 on: January 31, 2021, 12:48:32 PM »
Well, I feel that knowing which one is at the origin of Covid19 will not protect me of the occurrence of the other option.

Archimid

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #103 on: February 05, 2021, 03:38:41 PM »
Quote
Why not with viruses?

Because if standard CDC procedures were followed back in early 2020, none of this would've happened. SARS-CoV-2 would've been a very weak weapon if it wasn't for the decisions made by US leadership early 2020.

So a good AI made excellent choices, predicting the sabotage and predicting that so many other countries would follow the naked king. Or the sabotage was intentional.  I don't know.

Without the sabotage performed by American leadership, SARS-CoV-2 would've gone the way of SARS 1.

Then again, when the next pandemic happens in a few years, I'll probably have a theory perfectly suited for the moment.

As far as I am concerned, even if it is man-made, it's made by nature. We are not all that we think we are.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

The Walrus

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #104 on: February 05, 2021, 04:06:03 PM »
Quote
Why not with viruses?

Because if standard CDC procedures were followed back in early 2020, none of this would've happened. SARS-CoV-2 would've been a very weak weapon if it wasn't for the decisions made by US leadership early 2020.

So a good AI made excellent choices, predicting the sabotage and predicting that so many other countries would follow the naked king. Or the sabotage was intentional.  I don't know.

Without the sabotage performed by American leadership, SARS-CoV-2 would've gone the way of SARS 1.

Then again, when the next pandemic happens in a few years, I'll probably have a theory perfectly suited for the moment.

As far as I am concerned, even if it is man-made, it's made by nature. We are not all that we think we are.

What about all the other countries?  Do you believe that they just followed suit?  The pandemic was global, with some countries affected worse than the U.S.

Neven

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #105 on: February 08, 2021, 12:21:43 PM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

nadir

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #106 on: February 09, 2021, 01:59:04 PM »

harpy

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #107 on: February 15, 2021, 04:41:43 PM »
Wuhan Lab Got Patents for Bat Cages to Keep Animals, Conduct Experiments Months Before Pandemic: Report

https://www.ibtimes.sg/wuhan-lab-got-patents-bat-cages-keep-animals-conduct-experiments-months-before-pandemic-report-55572

Quote
The report said that in November 2019 the controversial Wuhan lab filed a patent for a device to treat injuries sustained while handling pathogenic viruses in the lab. Those who filed for this patent have worked at the WIV for more than a decade. Some of them are the scientists who studied Coronavirus in bats.

Charles Small, an open-source intelligence consultant, who found these mysterious patents said: "The Wuhan lab describes catching wild bats in mountain caves and breeding them in their patented cages to use as animal models in scientific experiments. They mention infecting bats with viruses artificially."


Rodius

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #108 on: February 16, 2021, 12:39:55 AM »
At least three WHO COVID-19 investigators linked with Chinese-institutions

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6232098849001

Quote
... three of the lead investigators, Dr Peter Ben Embarek Peter Daszak and Doctor Marion Koopmans have links to the Chinese government.

She said the public's trust in the report is undermined when some of the investigators have links to the country being investigated.

"The Wuhan Institute of Virology did not open its books and patient details of the first 70 people who fell sick with COVID-19 were denied. No information on patient zero,” Ms Markson said.

“The fact is COVID-19 might have spilled over naturally from bats to humans or via an intermediary host.

“But it might have been leaked from a laboratory.

SkyNews Australia is a Murdoch media news agency.
Whatever they say is designed to support the Australian Fed Govt to undermine Covid and push for letting it run wild like in the US.
They also love a good conspiracy theory when it comes to China.

This isn't to say that they are wrong here, but if I was you, I would seek alternative sources of information to confirm whatever it is SkyNews is saying.... on any given day, I have found them to be consistently misleading, ommit key facts or just outright lie.

harpy

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #109 on: February 16, 2021, 03:22:50 PM »
You're right, we're best off not diluting this thread with low quality references.  The WHO has already destroyed its reputation by denying human to human transmission - it's remarkable to me that the organization wasn't dissolved, and its top officers immediately resigned.  e.g., https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?lang=en
« Last Edit: February 16, 2021, 05:32:31 PM by harpy »

WildFit

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #110 on: February 16, 2021, 09:22:29 PM »
Considering how much science-oriented many here are I'm really surprised that no-one ever thought about to correct the thread title.

COronaVirusDesease-19 is the effect/illnes caused by SARS-COrona-Virus-2 and therefore the question would be to ask for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 not CoViD-19.

That's not nitpicking because the correct terms are essential in a discussion to have a chance for decent results. Also it's not only here that flawed terminology makes reasoning difficult, it's just a perfect example to point it out.

Of course one can ask for the origin of CoViD-19 but then the answer is obvious = SARS-CoV-2


 ;)

Rodius

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #111 on: February 17, 2021, 02:08:53 AM »
You're right, we're best off not diluting this thread with low quality references.  The WHO has already destroyed its reputation by denying human to human transmission - it's remarkable to me that the organization wasn't dissolved, and its top officers immediately resigned.  e.g., https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?lang=en

So your answer to me about pointing out that SkyNews Australia is a bad information source is to select mistakes from WHO at the beginning of the pandemic.
How are the two related?

That isn't really doing anything but pointing out mistakes from others, it changes nothing about SkyNews being a propaganda machine for the Oz Govt. that provides poor levels of information.

harpy

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #112 on: February 17, 2021, 08:03:34 PM »
The WHO did not make a mistake, they lied. 

In fact, the WHO lied throughout the most important part of the Pandemic, when it could have been contained in China.

The US congress held hearings on the WHO lying, and as a result of those hearings, the WHO was cut from the US funding.

Whatever is included in their recent report has about as much credibility as an official press release from the Chinese government.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2021, 08:42:18 PM by harpy »

greylib

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #113 on: February 17, 2021, 11:29:00 PM »
The WHO did not make a mistake, they lied. 

In fact, the WHO lied throughout the most important part of the Pandemic, when it could have been contained in China.

The US congress held hearings on the WHO lying, and as a result of those hearings, the WHO was cut from the US funding.

Whatever is included in their recent report has about as much credibility as an official press release from the Chinese government.
I've checked your twitter quote:
Quote
World Health Organization (WHO) @WHO
Jan 14, 2020
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China
That can't be called an outright lie, by any stretch of the imagination.

On the other hand ONE WEEK LATER, on Jan 21, this:

WHO raises possibility of ‘sustained’ human-to-human transmission of new virus in China
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/21/who-raises-possibility-of-sustained-human-to-human-transmission-of-new-virus-in-china/
Sounds like fast reaction to ever-changing information. There are, of course, some people who can't change any opinion once they've made their mind up. Does the cap fit, Harpy?
Step by step, moment by moment
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Neven

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #114 on: February 17, 2021, 11:30:31 PM »
Considering how much science-oriented many here are I'm really surprised that no-one ever thought about to correct the thread title.

COronaVirusDesease-19 is the effect/illnes caused by SARS-COrona-Virus-2 and therefore the question would be to ask for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 not CoViD-19.

That's not nitpicking because the correct terms are essential in a discussion to have a chance for decent results. Also it's not only here that flawed terminology makes reasoning difficult, it's just a perfect example to point it out.

Of course one can ask for the origin of CoViD-19 but then the answer is obvious = SARS-CoV-2


 ;)

Good point. I've adjusted the thread title.
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Rodius

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Re: Origins of COVID-19
« Reply #115 on: February 18, 2021, 12:29:29 AM »
The WHO did not make a mistake, they lied. 

In fact, the WHO lied throughout the most important part of the Pandemic, when it could have been contained in China.

The US congress held hearings on the WHO lying, and as a result of those hearings, the WHO was cut from the US funding.

Whatever is included in their recent report has about as much credibility as an official press release from the Chinese government.

Let me get this straight...... Trump removed the funding to the WHO and needed a story to give a reason for that removal.
Other than Twitter or Trump propaganda, is there any other supporting evidence that the WHO outright lied?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #116 on: February 18, 2021, 12:39:49 AM »

Also it's not only here that flawed terminology makes reasoning difficult, it's just a perfect example to point it out.

I find there are more significant factors on this thread that make reasoning difficult for me.   :)

oren

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #117 on: February 18, 2021, 01:58:55 AM »
I share your sentiment SH (and hopefully your humanity). A good application of Occam's could be a starter.

kassy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #118 on: February 18, 2021, 04:17:33 PM »
Whatever anyone thinks of the WHO is not relevant to the topic.
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harpy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #119 on: February 19, 2021, 08:22:08 PM »
University of Hamburg: Laboratory Accident Most Likely Cause of Coronavirus Pandemic


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

Quote
Professor Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, a leading German nanotechnology expert and three-time recipient of the prestigious European Research Council Advanced Grant, has completed a one-year, hundred-page study on the origin of the novel coronavirus, Sars-Cov-2. Professor Wiesendanger concludes that “both the number and quality of the circumstantial evidence point to a laboratory accident at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan as the cause of the current pandemic.”

Quote
In contrast to earlier coronavirus-related epidemics such as SARS and MERS, until today, i. H. Well over a year after the outbreak of the current pandemic, no intermediate host animal can be identified which could have enabled the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens from bats to humans. The zoonosis theory as a possible explanation for the pandemic therefore has no sound scientific basis.

The SARS-CoV-2 viruses can couple surprisingly well to human cell receptors and penetrate human cells. This is made possible by special cell receptor binding domains connected to a special (furin) cleavage site of the coronavirus spike protein. Both properties together were previously unknown in coronaviruses and indicate a non-natural origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen.

Bats were not offered at the suspected fish market in central Wuhan City. However, the Wuhan City Virological Institute has one of the world's largest collections of bat pathogens, which originate from distant caves in southern Chinese provinces. It is extremely unlikely that bats would have made their way naturally to Wuhan from this distance of nearly 2,000 km and then triggered a global pandemic in the immediate vicinity of this virological institute.

A research group at the virological institute in the city of Wuhan has carried out genetic manipulations on coronaviruses for many years with the aim of making them more contagious, dangerous and deadly for humans. This is proven by numerous publications in the scientific specialist literature. There were significant safety deficiencies in the virological institute in the city of Wuhan even before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which are documented.

There are numerous direct indications of a laboratory origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. A young scientist from the virological institute in Wuhan is said to have been infected first. There are also numerous indications that the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen spread from the virological institute in the city of Wuhan and beyond as early as October 2019. There are also indications of a corresponding investigation by the Chinese authorities by the virological institute in the first half of October 2019
.

Below is a link to the 100 page German study:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 09:32:20 PM by harpy »

harpy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #120 on: February 19, 2021, 08:37:30 PM »
The above study was authored by professor Dr. Roland Wiesendanger, who has an illustrious career, from the University of Hamburg, in Germany:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roland_Wiesendanger

Quote
Since 2000 Wiesendanger is a member of the National Academy Leopoldina, since 2005 member of the Academy of Sciences in Hamburg, and since 2008 member of the German Academy of Technical Sciences (acatech). In 2012 he became Honorary Professor of the Harbin Institute of Technology (China) and in 2015 he received an Honorary Doctor degree from the Technical University of Poznan (Poland).

He has organized numerous international conferences like the International Scanning Tunneling Microscopy (STM’97) Conference in Hamburg (1997) or the 1st Otto Stern Symposium in Hamburg (2013). He has been a speaker at more than 500 international conferences, workshops and colloquia worldwide.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 09:18:54 PM by harpy »

SteveMDFP

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #121 on: February 19, 2021, 09:24:19 PM »
University of Hamburg: Laboratory Accident Most Likely Cause of Coronavirus Pandemic

https://swprs.org/german-study-laboratory-accident-most-likely-cause-of-coronavirus-pandemic/

...
Below is a link to the study:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

Peer-reviewed?  What peer-reviewed journal published this "study"?  Citation?

Why should anyone pay  attention to the musings of a nanotechnology expert?  He's not a virologist.  The two fields are unrelated, apart from dealing with small things.

The initial article is from the anonymous Swiss Policy Research web site, which has been more or less debunked here.

Let's not present turds as being nuggets of gold.

harpy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #122 on: February 19, 2021, 09:27:03 PM »
It's not peer-review, it's a study that is pre-print.  It's 100 pages, and this man has an illustrious career and the University of Hamburg has permitted their name to be included on the study.

We should read it because the reputation of university of Hamburg is on the line here.

Last I checked, University of Hamburg has a lot to lose by allowing their name to be used.  So let's try to read through the 100 page study, and see why the University of Hamburg would risk their reputation on "nonsense"?

https://www.uni-hamburg.de/en.html

Incase you missed it, here's the direct link to the pre-print, PDF:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

SteveMDFP

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #123 on: February 19, 2021, 09:42:36 PM »
It's not peer-review, it's a study that is pre-print.  It's 100 pages, and this man has an illustrious career and the University of Hamburg has permitted their name to be included on the study.

We should read it because the reputation of university of Hamburg is on the line here.

Last I checked, University of Hamburg has a lot to lose by allowing their name to be used.  So let's try to read through the 100 page study, and see why the University of Hamburg would risk their reputation on "nonsense"?

https://www.uni-hamburg.de/en.html

Incase you missed it, here's the direct link to the pre-print, PDF:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349302406_Studie_zum_Ursprung_der_Coronavirus-Pandemie

I presume the author is on faculty at U Hamburg.  If so, standards of academic freedom mean that he needed zero authorization from anyone at U Hamburg prior to submitting this to ResearchGate.

Generally, "preprint" means that a paper has been at least submitted to a peer-reviewed journal, and often accepted for publication.  There's no evidence of any journal being involved here.

Yes, it's lengthy, but the bulk of the pages are copies of various letters and articles.

Alas, I can't read German, or I'd give a more detailed critique.  Judging from the English language materials included, I'd say he's quite concerned about gain-of-function research in virology.  Many are; it's quite controversial.  I can't see that he's presented anything new on the matter.

Since you presented this for discussion, perhaps you might see if you can run it through Google translate and present the quasi-translation?

nadir

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #124 on: February 19, 2021, 11:14:53 PM »
The question is, is there going to be review by peers on the recent WHO field study conclusion or should we accept it as is?

why are we so zealous in gatekeeping studies supporting lab origin but we seem to give an easy pass when experts support natural origin, even when it is not through peer-reviewed papers but simple press notes like the recent WHO conclusion (swift conclusion aired only after a week of having a few nice walks in the streets of Wuhan)

This attitude seems reactionary to me, like the classic reaction in favor of the establishment.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #125 on: February 20, 2021, 12:29:23 AM »
The question is, is there going to be review by peers on the recent WHO field study conclusion or should we accept it as is?

why are we so zealous in gatekeeping studies supporting lab origin but we seem to give an easy pass when experts support natural origin, even when it is not through peer-reviewed papers but simple press notes like the recent WHO conclusion (swift conclusion aired only after a week of having a few nice walks in the streets of Wuhan)

This attitude seems reactionary to me, like the classic reaction in favor of the establishment.

To be clear, that's not my attitude.  I'm a bit skeptical of the WHO team's objectivity and thoroughness.  But on the basis of available facts (and the anti-China bias of many), i'm very doubtful of the claim of artificial origin of Covid.

We have a model for the origin and spread of such viruses.  The original SARS seems pretty clearly to have started from a "wet market."  Originating in bats, with civet cats as an intermediate host.  There was no need for bats to have been in that wet market.

And, of course, MERS appears to have originated in bats, then passed to camels as an intermediate host, before passing to humans.

I see no compelling reason to posit a totally different mechanism for the spread of Covid to humans.  Highly similar coronaviruses were obtained from pangolins and bats before this epidemic started.  There seems to be no doubt that the bulk of the early human cases were people who worked at the wet market.

This doesn't exonerate China's leadership, it indicts China's leadership.  Tolerating wet markets, where wild animals are in close proximity with other wild animals and humans, was inexcusable.  Having suffered from the SARS epidemic, there was no rational reason to tolerate the operation of other, similar, wet markets.  Such arrangements are essentially the best possible way to create catastrophic pandemics.  This was apparent before the Covid virus arose.

Absent fairly compelling evidence of an artificial origin, we can have confidence that failure to close wet markets is the underlying cause of this global disaster.

Conversely, the Wuhan Institute of Virology's research was more than appropriate.  Having suffered through the SARS catastrophe, the Institute would have been derelict in its duties if it weren't focusing squarely on coronaviruses in bats that might potentially spread to humans.  Engaging in gain-of-function research was certainly somewhat hazardous, but I don't see that it was clearly unwarranted.  Assessing the potential for coronavirus spread to humans is of obvious importance to preventing the next pandemic.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #126 on: February 20, 2021, 12:43:49 AM »
Well...if it's 100 pages, it must be right.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #127 on: February 20, 2021, 02:52:23 AM »
Quote
This doesn't exonerate China's leadership, it indicts China's leadership.  Tolerating wet markets, where wild animals are in close proximity with other wild animals and humans, was inexcusable.  Having suffered from the SARS epidemic, there was no rational reason to tolerate the operation of other, similar, wet markets.  Such arrangements are essentially the best possible way to create catastrophic pandemics.  This was apparent before the Covid virus arose.

Absent fairly compelling evidence of an artificial origin, we can have confidence that failure to close wet markets is the underlying cause of this global disaster.

Are there still wet markets open, in China or elsewhere?
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oren

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #128 on: February 20, 2021, 10:34:15 AM »
Thank you Steve for injecting some rationality into this discussion.

nadir

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #129 on: February 20, 2021, 05:31:31 PM »
Thank you Steve for injecting some rationality into this discussion.

For the record, I was not referring specifically to Steve (whose response is excellent, and his opinion is respectable) but to the generality of the population. The natural origin of SARS-CoV-2 became, very soon and very quickly, the mainstream theory, and most people reject what they don’t get from the evening news as “problematic” or “conspiranoid”, yielding their trust to the establishment, which provides, like a drug, a comfortably numb condition.

Anyway, I’ll keep lurking as I find this controversial issue interesting. I am glad that there is a handful of maverick researchers and journalists out there willing to challenge the mainstream view.

harpy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #130 on: February 25, 2021, 08:33:45 PM »
Tracing the origins of SARS-COV-2 in coronavirus phylogenies: a review

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-020-01151-1

Quote
The data currently available are not sufficient to firmly assert whether SARS-CoV2 results from
a zoonotic emergence or from an accidental escape of a laboratory strain. This question needs to be solved because it has
important consequences on the risk/benefit balance of our interactions with ecosystems, on intensive breeding of wild and
domestic animals, on some laboratory practices and on scientific policy and biosafety regulations.

Quote
Recombinant viruses potentially adapted to humans have been constructed from bat CoVs, including through replacement of the bat RBD with the RBD of human SARS-CoV in US and Chinese laboratories (Zeng et al. 2016; Menachery et al. 2015; Hu et al. 2017). Among other discoveries, these experiments nevertheless revealed that infection of human cells is often limited because the activation of the S protein requires specific proteolysis, which is incompletely performed by human cells (Fig. 3b). This difficulty can be circumvented by treating viruses with trypsin (Menachery et al. 2020) or by adding a furin proteolysis site downstream of the RBD domain at the S1/S2 processing site, which can be cleaved by human cells (Follis et al. 2006; Belouzard et al. 2009). These investigations indicate as expected that it is possible to adapt bat viruses to infect human cells or various animal models, and that chiropteran CoVs have the potential for direct zoonotic transmission to humans, particularly if they acquire an adapted proteolysis site, which requires only a few mutations or the insertion of a short sequence rich in basic amino acids (Hu et al. 2017). This hypothesis has been put forward by Sirotkin and Sirotkin, who developed the hypothesis that the virus might have arisen from serial passages, and accidental escape from the laboratory (Sirotkin and Sirotkin 2020).

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #131 on: March 02, 2021, 01:14:47 AM »
“Influenza virions therefore resemble exosomes both in their hydrodynamic properties and in their protein composition.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms5816

Exosomes need to be stored at -70C, so how can “viruses” survive in open air when they have the same hydrodynamic properties ?
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

kassy

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Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« Reply #132 on: March 02, 2021, 01:33:57 PM »
Environmental conditions influence the time the particles survive. If they on some surface out in the sun on a warm day they will quickly degrade. They are also vulnerable in super humid environments.

Of course when some person is infected they shed lots of viral particles and only some need to make it.

For the pfizer vaccine you have a whole supply line they need to go through.

PS: That was an interesting article, thx!
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