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vox_mundi

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Drought 2021
« on: January 13, 2021, 11:15:30 PM »
Turkey Drought: Istanbul Could Run Out of Water In 45 Days
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/turkey-drought-istanbul-run-out-water-45-days

Major cities across Turkey face running out of water in the next few months, with warnings Istanbul has less than 45 days of water left.

Poor rainfall has led to the country’s most severe drought in a decade and put the megacity of 17 million people close to running out of water, according to Turkey’s chamber of chemical engineers. The Ankara mayor, Mansur Yavaş, said earlier this month the capital had another 110 days’ worth in dams and reservoirs.

İzmir and Bursa, Turkey’s next two biggest cities, are also struggling, with dams that are about 36% and 24% full respectively, and farmers in wheat-producing areas such as the Konya plain and Edirne province on the border with Greece and Bulgaria are warning of crop failure.

Turkey is a “water stressed” country, with just 1,346 cubic metres of water per capita per year, and has faced several droughts since the 1980s due to a combination of population growth, industrialisation, urban sprawl and climate change.

“Instead of focusing on measures to keep water demand under control, Turkey insists on expanding its water supply through building more dams … Turkey has built hundreds of dams in the last two decades,” said Dr Akgün İlhan, a water management expert at the Istanbul Policy Center.

Turkey has long prioritised economic growth over environmental concerns and remains the only G20 country apart from the US yet to ratify the 2015 Paris agreement.

“The warning signs have been there for decades but not much has been done in practice.”

... Ultimately, Turkey’s cities need lots of rain, immediately, to avoid having to ration water in the next few months – and even sustained rainfall for the rest of the winter might not be enough for farming communities to rescue this year’s crops.



https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/istanbul/water-drama-continues-for-istanbul-as-dam-supplies-drop-to-critical-levels
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vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2021, 06:58:04 PM »
European Summer Droughts Since 2015 Unprecedented In Past Two Millennia
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-european-summer-droughts-unprecedented-millennia.html



Recent summer droughts in Europe are far more severe than anything in the past 2,100 years, according to a new study.

An international team, led by the University of Cambridge, studied the chemical fingerprints in European oak trees to reconstruct summer climate over 2,110 years. They found that after a long-term drying trend, drought conditions since 2015 suddenly intensified, beyond anything in the past two thousand years.

This anomaly is likely the result of human-caused climate change and associated shifts in the jet stream. The results are reported in the journal Nature Geoscience.

... Most studies attempting to reconstruct past climates are restricted to temperature, but stable isotopes in tree rings can provide annually-resolved and absolutely-dated information about hydroclimatic changes over long periods of time.

Büntgen and his colleagues from the Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland studied more than 27,000 measurements of carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios from 147 living and dead European oak trees, covering a period of 2,110 years. The samples came from archaeological remains, subfossil materials, historical constructions and living trees from what is now the Czech Republic and parts of south-eastern Bavaria.

For each ring in each tree, researchers extracted and analyzed carbon and oxygen isotopes independently, enabling them to build the largest and most detailed dataset of summer hydroclimate conditions in central Europe from Roman times to the present.

"These tree-ring stable isotopes give us a far more accurate archive to reconstruct hydroclimate conditions in temperate areas, where conventional tree-ring studies often fail," said co-author Professor Jan Esper from the University of Mainz, Germany.

Stable tree-ring isotopes differ from the usual tree-ring measures of ring width and wood density, as they reflect physical conditions and tree responses rather than net stem growth. "While carbon values depend on the photosynthetic activity, oxygen values are affected by the source water. Together, they closely correlate with the conditions of the growing season," said co-author Professor Paolo Cherubini from the Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf, Switzerland.

Over the 2,110-year period, the tree-ring isotope data showed there were very wet summers, such as 200, 720 and 1100 CE, and very dry summers, such as 40, 590, 950 and 1510 CE. Despite these 'out of the ordinary years', the results show that for the past two millennia, Europe has been slowly getting drier.

The samples from 2015-2018, however, show that drought conditions in recent summers far exceed anything in the 2,110 years: "We've seen a sharp drop following centuries of a slow, significant decline, which is particularly alarming for agriculture and forestry," said co-author Professor Mirek Trnka from the CzechGlobe Research Center in Brno, Czech Republic. "Unprecedented forest dieback across much of central Europe corroborates our results." ...

Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability, Nature Geoscience (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00698-0
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kassy

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2021, 08:57:14 PM »
A background trend:

Atmospheric drying will lead to lower crop yields, shorter trees across the globe

A global observation of an ongoing atmospheric drying -- known by scientists as a rise in vapor pressure deficit -- has been observed worldwide since the early 2000s. In recent years, this concerning phenomenon has been on the rise, and is predicted to amplify even more in the coming decades as climate change intensifies.

...

In a new paper published in the journal Global Change Biology, research from the University of Minnesota and Western University in Ontario, Canada, outlines global atmospheric drying significantly reduces productivity of both crops and non-crop plants, even under well-watered conditions. The new findings were established on a large-scale analysis covering 50 years of research and 112 plant species.

"When there is a high vapor pressure deficit, our atmosphere pulls water from other sources: animals, plants, etc.," said senior author Walid Sadok, an assistant professor in the Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics at the University of Minnesota. "An increase in vapor pressure deficit places greater demand on the crop to use more water. In turn, this puts more pressure on farmers to ensure this demand for water is met -- either via precipitation or irrigation -- so that yields do not decrease."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210308111954.htm
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2021, 11:19:42 PM »
kassy:
Shorter trees (and lowered crops) mean plants will take up less CO2 in the future.
Can you say "positive feedback"?
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kassy

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2021, 02:25:07 PM »
Well yes and it will slow down growth in all the billion trees we are going to plant.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2021, 07:29:49 PM »
Forecast for Spring: Nasty Drought Worsens for Much of US
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-nasty-drought-worsens.html



Weather service and agriculture officials warned of possible water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, increased wildfires, low levels in key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell and damage to wheat crops.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's official spring outlook Thursday sees an expanding drought with a drier than normal April, May and June for a large swath of the country from Louisiana to Oregon. including some areas hardest hit by the most severe drought. And nearly all of the continental United States is looking at warmer than normal spring, except for tiny parts of the Pacific Northwest and southeast Alaska, which makes drought worse.

"We are predicting prolonged and widespread drought," National Weather Service Deputy Director Mary Erickson said. "It's definitely something we're watching and very concerned about."

NOAA expects the spring drought to hit 74 million people.

Several factors go into worsening drought, the agency said. A La Nina cooling of parts of the central Pacific continues to bring dry weather for much of the country, while in the Southwest heavy summer monsoon rains failed to materialize. Meteorologists also say the California megadrought is associated with long-term climate change.

Thursday's national Drought Monitor shows almost 66% of the nation is in an abnormally dry condition, the highest mid-March level since 2002. And forecasters predict that will worsen, expanding in parts of Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota, with small islands of relief in parts of the Great Lakes and New England.

More than 44% of the nation is in moderate or worse drought, and nearly 18% is in extreme or exceptional drought—all of it west of the Mississippi River. Climate scientists are calling what's happening in the West a "megadrought" that started in 1999.

With the Sierra Nevada snowpack only 60% of normal levels, U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey said "there will be some water cutbacks and allocation cutbacks in California and perhaps other areas of the Southwest" for agriculture and other uses. It will probably hit nut crops in the Golden State.

Winter and spring wheat crops also have been hit hard by the western drought with 78% of the spring wheat production area in drought conditions, Rippey said.

The dry, warm conditions the upcoming months likely will bring "an enhanced wildfire season," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of NOAA's prediction branch.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2021, 12:22:38 PM »
The forecast for the USA is warmer than normal for over a year:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
and the West is going to be drier than normal most of that time.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2021, 03:35:48 PM »
Daniel Swain  @Weather_West:  I've always said that "Triple R"-like features that require multi-month persistence are really only discernible in retrospect. Well, after looking at the data for Nov-Mar 2020-2021...it's back, and California's in another drought.

California
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge returns…again
Daniel Swain, March 24, 2021
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Portions of California–especially the SF North Bay, Sacramento Valley, and Ventura County–have experienced their driest “rainy season” to date since the 1976-1977 drought. (climatetoolbox.org)

The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are currently experiencing their driest season since the 1976-1977 drought (and a few places are running behind even that infamous season). This is doubly concerning as these same regions experienced a top-5 driest winter on record just last year–so this is now year two of exceptionally low precipitation in these areas. All of this is amplified by the prolonged periods of record high temperatures and drying offshore winds last year–both of which reduced water availability beyond what would be expected from precipitation deficits alone.

There are a few exceptions to the “exceptionally dry” categorization: patches of the Central Coast and central San Joaquin Valley benefited greatly from the powerful atmospheric river event earlier this winter and are merely 20-30% behind average, and some small areas in far southern coastal CA benefited from the southern-track cut-offs in Feb-Mar. Sierra Nevada snowpack is not exactly a bright spot, but at 65% of average for the calendar date it’s actually less dismal than overall precipitation deficits would suggest (thanks, in large part, to the cold AR event earlier this winter). But in general, California is in pretty bad shape water-wise heading into spring 2021–and I would expect the pre-existing drought to deepen considerably. Expect to hear much more about this in the coming weeks. ...
https://weatherwest.com/archives/8692
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vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2021, 03:30:43 PM »
Droughts Longer, Rainfall More Erratic Over the Last 50 years In Most of the West
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-droughts-longer-rainfall-erratic-years.html

Against the backdrop of steadily warming temperatures and decreasing total yearly rainfall, rain has been falling in fewer and sometimes larger storms, with longer dry intervals between. Total yearly rainfall has decreased by an average of four inches over the last half century, while the longest dry period in each year increased from 20 to 32 days across the West, explained co-senior author Joel Biederman, a research hydrologist with the ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center in Tucson, Arizona.

"The greatest changes in drought length have taken place in the desert Southwest. The average dry period between storms in the 1970s was about 30 days; now that has grown to 45 days," Biederman said.

Extreme droughts are also occurring more often in the majority of the West according to historical weather data as there has been an increase in the year-to-year variation of both total rainfall amounts and the duration of dry periods.

"Consistency of rainfall, or the lack of it, is often more important than the total amount of rain when it comes to forage continuing to grow for livestock and wildlife, for dryland farmers to produce crops, and for the mitigation of wildfire risks," Biederman said.

The rate of increasing variability of rainfall within each year and between years also appears to be accelerating, with greater portions of the West showing longer drought intervals since 2000 compared to previous years.

Notable exceptions to these drought patterns were seen in Washington, Oregon and Idaho and the Northern Plains region of Montana, Wyoming, and the most western parts of North and South Dakota. In these regions, the researchers found some increases in total annual rainfall and decreases in drought intervals. Together, these changes support what models have predicted as a consequence of climate change: a northward shift in the mid-latitude jet stream, which brings moisture from the Pacific Ocean to the western United States, according to Biederman.

Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States, Geophysical Research Letters, (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL092293
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2021, 10:23:49 PM »
Although precipitation increased by ~4% over the past century, regional and seasonal differences exist.  The desert southwest has been drier, especially in spring.  The northern portion has been wetter in spring, while the south has been drier.  Overall, the country east of the Rockies has seen an increase in precipitation, with the exception of the far southeast.  Interestingly, Florida has seen reduced rainfall during hurricane season.


vox_mundi

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2021, 10:50:15 PM »
And here are the rest of the results that you left out from the study you failed to cite...

Global and U.S. temperatures continue to rise

The annual average temperature for the globe and the contiguous U.S. has increased 1.8 degrees F from 1901 to 2016.

Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the globe occurred in the last 17 years; the last three years were the warmest.



Variability in temperature and precipitation is increasing

Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 mostly a result of large increases in the fall season.

Heatwaves have become more frequent in the U.S. since the 1960s.

Cold temperatures and cold waves have decreased since the early 1900s.

Annual trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western U.S.

Ocean temperatures are warming and an increase in sea level

Global average sea level has risen by about 7-8 inches since 1900.

Global average sea level is expected to rise by several inches in the next 15 years.

Temperature increases in Alaska and across Arctic are greater than the rest of the globe

Annual average near-surface air temperature in Alaska and across the Arctic has increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature.

Since the early 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has decreased between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent per decade, has become thinner by between 4.3 and 7.5 feet, and on average the season of melting lasts 15 more days per year.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR_Ch7_Precipitation.pdf

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
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The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2021, 01:16:33 AM »
What you failed to note from the study is that while the heatwaves have become more frequent since 1960, they have not since the earlier part of the 20th century.  Selectively choosing the lowest point in the data to make a comparison, while ignoring the rest of the data seems to be cherry picking.  This is exemplified in the graph depicting summer temperatures, in which almost half the country has cooled, while the rest has warmed.  The annual increase has been driven almost exclusively by warming in the winter months, which is expected due to increased greenhouse gases.

The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2021, 03:00:36 AM »
By the way, decreasing cold waves and heat waves lead to less seasonal temperature variability.  Increasing temperatures in northern states, combined with decreasing temperatures in the south leads to less geographical temperature variability.  Just what aspect of the temperature do you believe is increasing in variability?

oren

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2021, 10:12:53 AM »
Your lovely subject, the Dust Bowl years as a comparison basis.

The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2021, 02:27:40 PM »
Even before the dust bowl.  The recent heat wave index is comparable to 1900.  The cherry-picked low in the 1960s is evident.

kassy

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2021, 03:06:52 PM »
This figure shows the annual values of the U.S. Heat Wave Index from 1895 to 2015. These data cover the contiguous 48 states. Interpretation: An index value of 0.2 (for example) could mean that 20 percent of the country experienced one heat wave, 10 percent of the country experienced two heat waves, or some other combination of frequency and area resulted in this value.

https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures

One other take could be that things can indeed go badly quickly as the dust bowl spikes indicate.
Of course the underlying climate conditions change.

Other slide:
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures

This graph shows the percentage of the land area of the contiguous 48 states with unusually hot daily high and low temperatures during the months of June, July, and August. The thin lines represent individual years, while the thick lines show a nine-year weighted average. Red lines represent daily highs, while orange lines represent daily lows. The term “unusual” in this case is based on the long-term average conditions at each location.

Looks like an upwards trend.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2021, 05:05:11 PM »
Overall, the country east of the Rockies has seen an increase in precipitation, with the exception of the far southeast.

What is happening overall is really not the point though. With AGW and the resultant climate change, it is only the regional changes that matter with regards to the current land use.

The simple fact is the Southwest is seeing rapidly increasing temperatures and a drop in precipitation. Over the next 50 years these trends, unlikely to reverse unless we get a handle on CO2 emissions, will make it increasingly difficult to raise food and even inhabit cities where temperatures become excessive and already existent water shortages become even worse.

Increased rainfall across the Great Lakes states does not help the southwest but it has resulted in the highest lake levels ever recorded. Shoreline erosion is occurring across the Great Lakes and is likely to continue. Last fall, an emergency construction project was needed to prevent a section of US41 in Chicago from falling into Lake Michigan. Much of the project was very temporary in nature (massive boulders in a hastily repaired revetment) as the road was at risk of becoming impassable this past winter.

And if the increased rainfall was occurring steadily throughout the year, areas like Texas might even benefit but this is not happening. The Houston area had three consecutive 500 year floods from 2015 to 2017.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16211392/100-500-year-flood-meaning

It also matters in what form the precipitation occurs. Winter wheat in the northern plains needs snow cover to thrive. If it only rains, the crops can fail completely.

https://extension.sdstate.edu/effects-snow-wheat#:~:text=Depending%20on%20the%20overall%20winter,crop%20stand%20in%20the%20spring.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2021, 10:27:12 PM by Shared Humanity »

The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2021, 05:22:58 PM »
Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

Another graph in the link by kassy shows the change in the number of unusually hot temperature.  Overall there were 15 locations with an increase of more than 25 days of hot temperatures above the 95th percentile and 17 locations with a decrease.  The locations that experienced an increase were largely in the southwest and Florida, with one each in the New York and Philadelphia areas.  The location with a decrease covered the area from the Atlantic ocean to the Great Plains, with one area in Utah.  It should be noted that these graphs only cover the latter half of the 20th century, omitting the hotter temperatures from prior years.  Still, the change is noticeable.

This areas that experienced a decrease in unusually hot temperatures were the same areas that had a significant increase in precipitation, and vice versa.  No real surprise, as cloud cover and rainfall tend to keep temperatures more moderate.  Fortunately for the U.S., this bodes well for the agricultural regions, which saw an increase in rainfall and a decrease in high temperatures. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2021, 08:30:59 PM »
Drought conditions continue to spread across Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
https://www.echopress.com/news/weather/6975903-Drought-conditions-continue-to-spread-across-Northern-Plains-Upper-Midwest
Quote
Drought conditions have worsened in much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with North Dakota taking the biggest hit.

Stacy Fortner | Drought Shouldn’t Be Ignored
https://signalscv.com/2021/04/stacy-fortner-drought-shouldnt-be-ignored/
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To date, the Santa Clarita Valley has received less than 4 inches of rain, its lowest rainfall in a hundred years, according to our local water agency. Our valley also normally receives around 50% of our local supply from the Sierra snowpack. It is measured several times each year in various river basins by the Department of Water Resources. With some areas receiving more snow than others, it is still generally below average this year. It going to be a tough water year for farmers and homeowners.

Study: Drought-breaking rains more rare, erratic in Colorado and the West
https://coloradosun.com/2021/04/07/western-monsoon-rains-colorado-drought-wildfire/
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The consequences of the intense dry periods that pummeled the Rocky Mountains and the Colorado Plateau were severe — more intense and dangerous wildfires, parched croplands and not enough vegetation to support livestock and wildlife. And it's getting worse.

Forage Producers Face High Input Costs, Drought
https://www.drovers.com/news/beef-production/forage-producers-face-high-input-costs-drought
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Higher fertilizer prices and poor precipitation outlook could mean thin margins and little room for error for cattle and forage producers this year, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

California is on the brink of drought – again. Is it ready?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/06/california-is-on-the-brink-of-drought-again-is-it-ready
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California is at the edge of another protracted drought, just a few years after one of the worst dry spells in state history left poor and rural communities without well water, triggered major water restrictions in cities, forced farmers to idle their fields, killed millions of trees, and fueled devastating megafires.
On Thursday, the unofficial end of California’s wet season, officials announced that the accumulation of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains and the Cascades was about 40% below average levels. The state doesn’t have enough snow and rain banked to replenish its groundwater supplies, feed its rivers and streams or fill depleted reservoirs.

Study: Drought-Breaking Rains More Rare, Erratic in US West
https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2021/04/08/303014.htm
Quote
Rainstorms grew more erratic and droughts much longer across most of the US West over the past half-century as climate change warmed the planet, according to a sweeping government study released Tuesday that concludes the situation is worsening.
The most dramatic changes were recorded in the desert Southwest, where the average dry period between rainstorms grew from about 30 days in the 1970s to 45 days between storms now, said Joel Biederman, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Southwest Watershed Research Center in Tucson, Arizona.

Only slight chance of rain in Jamestown area as drought continues
https://www.jamestownsun.com/news/weather/6969054-Only-slight-chance-of-rain-in-Jamestown-area-as-drought-continues
Quote
The forecast for the week from the National Weather Service includes only a slight chance of precipitation.

Drought in the West is Getting Worse
https://www.abccolumbia.com/2021/04/07/drought-in-the-west-is-getting-worse/
Quote
The drought in the Western United States is getting worse. It’s the most widespread since the summer of 2013. Mountain snowpack, which is an essential source of water for Western rivers and reservoirs, has declined by an average of 15-30% across the West since 1955. This is a direct result of Global Warming.

USDA, counties—not California—likely to declare drought emergencies
https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/15651-usda-countiesnot-californialikely-to-declare-drought-emergencies
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As rangelands dry up, USDA will likely be the first to declare a drought emergency, said Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth on Tuesday. This will open up assistance to ranchers, who tend to be at ground zero for California droughts.

Colorado Weather: No Change In Colorado’s Drought Severity This Week
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2021/04/08/colorado-drought-severity-conditions-monitor-remains-change/
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Despite the burst of needed moisture last Tuesday, most of the state of Colorado is staying high and dry this week. In fact, the storm system did not make a dent in the severity of the current drought situation.

E. Oregon county declares drought emergency
https://www.capitalpress.com/ag_sectors/water/e-oregon-county-declares-drought-emergency/article_aaf6bf75-2431-552f-8216-05554647b74c.html
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The Baker County Board of Commissioners unanimously approved a resolution April 7 declaring a drought disaster in the county and asking Gov. Kate Brown and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack to follow suit.

Out West, another dry year takes shape, as drought takes hold
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/4/5/22368305/drought-west-new-mexico
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More than half of New Mexico is dealing with exceptional drought. Utah and Arizona are worse off, and Nevada isn’t far behind. California also seems to be in another drought.

Standing Rock issues Emergency Drought and Extreme Fire Declaration
https://www.kfyrtv.com/2021/04/08/standing-rock-issues-emergency-drought-and-extreme-fire-declaration/
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The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe has issued an Emergency Drought and Extreme Fire Declaration.
With dry weather conditions increasing the likelihood of wildfires this spring and summer, the tribal government and the Bureau of Indian Affairs has extended a burn ban.

Borderland drought causing desert plants to die out
https://www.ktsm.com/weather/borderland-drought-causing-desert-plants-to-die-out/
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“Something many have probably noticed is that many of our plants in our own backyards have been suffering, not just because of the winter season, but because of the lack of rain,” said KTSM partner Jason Laney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service of El Paso.
The Borderland entered its third consecutive month of an exceptional drought, one the Borderland hasn’t seen since 2011.

Petaluma cattle ranchers brace for 'worst drought ever' as rainwater runs dry
https://abc7news.com/sonoma-county-cattle-ranch-drought-impact-two-rock-valley/10492771/
and https://www.whsv.com/2021/04/09/california-cattle-rancher-braces-for-worst-drought-ever/
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So bad that this year, she has already abandoned her spring garden.
"We're at five inches of rain. Should be 18 or 19 by now," said her husband, Don DeBernardi.
To drive home the point, Don loaded us into his 4-wheel drive pick-up and steered up a hill to see the reservoir pond that fills with rainwater runoff every year. Looking out the window, we almost missed it.
"That pond should be running over right now," said Don.

Here in Twinsburg we are at the border or cusp between abnormally dry and moderate drought. I remember 1988. I read if 1989 and 1990 were as bad as 1988 civilization would start ripping at the seams. Our food stockpiles were depleted. WE don't have that kind of margin now. We can't afford another 1988.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 12:37:44 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2021, 12:34:25 PM »
More about drought in the world's breadbasket:

California slips further into drought status
https://www.abc10.com/article/weather/california-drought/california-drought-situation/103-0b693f08-12ed-4b35-a310-b8c856f6bc56
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The US Drought Monitor lists more areas of California moving into higher levels of drought.

Drought and dry soils again will diminish Colorado’s spring runoff
https://www.aspentimes.com/news/drought-and-dry-soils-again-will-diminish-colorados-spring-runoff/
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Forecasters: Streamflows down nearly 20% compared to snowpack for Colorado River headwaters, other basins

Drought conditions continue to spread across Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
https://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/weather/6975903-Drought-conditions-continue-to-spread-across-Northern-Plains-Upper-Midwest
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Drought conditions have worsened in much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with North Dakota taking the biggest hit. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum on Thursday, April 8, declared a statewide drought disaster.

Drought conditions worsen across Texoma
https://www.kswo.com/2021/04/09/drought-conditions-worsen-across-texoma/
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In this recent weather pattern, rain has been hard to come by for Texoma. We have gone 15 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, and as a result drought conditions have significantly worsened across southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. The city of Lawton and Wichita Falls are about (2.75′') below average so far from year-to-date.

Livestock Water Supply program announced as Governor Doug Burgum declares statewide drought disaster
https://www.jamestownsun.com/business/agriculture/6976444-Livestock-Water-Supply-program-announced-as-Governor-Doug-Burgum-declares-statewide-drought-disaster
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The Drought Disaster Livestock Water Supply Project Assistance Program has been reactivated.

Drought monitor shows slight improvements in Lower Valley
https://www.valleycentral.com/news/drought-monitor-shows-slight-improvements-in-lower-valley/
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Unfortunately, the mid to upper Valley, where the worst drought conditions exist, conditions have not seen the same improvements.

Burgum declares statewide drought disaster
https://kfgo.com/2021/04/09/burgum-declares-statewide-drought-disaster/
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Governor Doug Burgum declared a statewide drought disaster on Thursday as 70% of North Dakota is in extreme drought, up from 47% last week with the remainder of the state in severe or moderate drought.

Oklahoma drought update: Drought quickly spreading
https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-drought-update-drought-quickly-spreading/36060812#
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KOCO meteorologist Jonathan Conder says the Oklahoma drought is quickly spreading, just a little relief is coming in the next week.

Local lawmakers discuss plans to combat the drought
https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/local-lawmakers-discuss-plans-to-combat-the-drought
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Governor Newsom was in Fresno today to talk about some big plans before the season kicks off.
Now, local law makers are focused on the drought conditions after a dry winter is now going into a dry spring.

California to pour $536 million into fire prevention amid drought concerns
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-pour-536-million-fire-prevention-amid-drought-concerns-n1263536
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom struck a deal with lawmakers Thursday to free up $536 million for wildfire prevention as the state faces more drought and an elevated fire risk that experts warn could be as catastrophic as last year's historic infernos.

But hey, at least we had some rain last night in Twinsburg!  :D
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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2021, 06:19:34 PM »
This is not a surprise.  As a whole, the U.S. has become drier after a prolonged wet spell.  The NOAA SPI index shows that beginning in 2013, the contiguous 48 states were wetter that unusual, culminating in an extremely wet 2019.  The wetness showed up in the drought monitor also, as the extreme and exceptional drought categories covered 0.1% of the land during the summer months.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/us-drought-monitor-update-august-6-2019

Shared Humanity

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2021, 08:11:01 PM »
Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

You chose to ignore the other points I made.

The Walrus

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2021, 08:33:07 PM »
Yes, the desert southwest has experienced increased temperatures and decreased precipitation.  This would make an already inhospitable region more so.  Over the rest of the continent, this is not the case. 

You chose to ignore the other points I made.

Yes, because we were discussing the desert southwest specifically.  I live around the Great Lakes.  The current situation is not unprecedented.  Similar lake levels occurred during the 1980s, when lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior set their high water marks.  This was accompanied by beach erosion.  Fifteen years ago, the lake levels were very low (near record); in some cases too low to launch boats.  Such is the case in an area that relies heavily on the annual rain- and snowfall.  See the graph from the U.S. army corps of engineers.

I cannot speak to the situation in Houston, except to state that the city is prone to flooding. 

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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2021, 09:48:16 PM »
The US Drought Monitor has changed a lot in the last year or two. Playtime.

https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=0&selectedDateUSDM=20210406&selectedDateSpi=20210301


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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2021, 01:14:53 PM »
DROUGHT INTENSIFIES, 70% OF NORTH DAKOTA CLASSIFIED ‘D3 EXTREME’
https://www.agriculture.com/weather/news/drought-intensifies-70-of-north-dakota-classified-d3-extreme
This article gives a summary of each state's current drought status, and whether they are improving or deteriorating.

Parts of Bay Area enter extreme drought classifications
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And as California continues to see abnormally dry conditions, lawmakers are urging Governor Newsom to declare a drought-related state of emergency.
This comes as most of the state is seeing dry conditions and water allocation is drying up for farmers across the state.

Opinion: Californians, get ready for drought water restrictions
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/editorials/story/2021-04-09/california-drought-water-restrictions-newsom-atkins
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For the first time in five years, especially in the northern part of the state, California is facing a drought. After a hot and dry 2020, water supplies are only at half of normal levels, and state and federal water officials have warned farmers and local governments that shortages are on the horizon and that they should plan on how they will adjust.

For more, go to Google News and search for "drought".
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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #25 on: April 11, 2021, 12:45:03 PM »
Drought-plagued California and western U.S. may see another devastating fire season
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/10/drought-wildfires-california-west/
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The drought, which led to the most extreme wildfire season on record in California and Colorado last year, is now worse

Drought in West deepens fears as fire season nears
https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/apr/11/drought-in-west-deepens-fears-as-fire-season-nears/?news-national
Quote
California and the West are falling deeper into drought and, with summer approaching, that portends another severe fire season.
As a disappointing wet season comes to a close and hope for spring rain fades, conditions are worse now than they were at this time last year, with exceptional and extreme drought now found throughout the region.
In California, that doesn't bode well, given that last year's more moderate rainfall deficits, combined with extreme heat waves, ushered in a record-setting fire year. It brought five of the six largest fires in modern state history, 10,488 destroyed structures and 33 fatalities. Some 4.2 million acres were torched.

But in you live in western Massachusetts don't worry (until you go to the supermarket) :-)
Incoming rain will help drought conditions in western Massachusetts
https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/incoming-rain-will-help-drought-conditions-in-western-massachusetts/
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According to the U.S. Drought monitor, we officially have Level 1 drought conditions. There are worse drought conditions farther north into Vermont and New Hampshire.
But the good news is that we do have chances of rain in the next few days that will likely not rid the drought completely, but they will bring us in the right direction.
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Re: Drought 2021
« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2021, 11:33:15 AM »
Western U.S. may be entering its most severe drought in modern history
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/western-u-s-drought-foreshadows-another-intense-fire-season/
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That's because in 2000, the Western U.S. entered the beginning of what scientists call a megadrought — the second worst in 1,200 years — triggered by a combination of a natural dry cycle and human-caused climate change.
In the past 20 years, the two worst stretches of drought came in 2003 and 2013 — but what is happening right now appears to be the beginning stages of something even more severe. And as we head into the summer dry season, the stage is set for an escalation of extreme dry conditions, with widespread water restrictions expected and yet another dangerous fire season ahead.

Rare elk population declining due to drought conditions
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/rare-elk-population-declining-due-to-drought-conditions/
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The National Park Service says 152 tule elks have died from these drought conditions, and the situation is causing controversy over their habitat.
“This is a very rare animal. These are rare, native, endemic to California. Tule elk. They are a symbol of this area. Yet right behind this fence, 152 animals were allowed to die during a drought,” said animal activist Fleur Dawes.
The National Park Service announced a declining population in 2020 due to lack of food caused by drought-like conditions.

Missouri River Managers Turn Attention From Flood to Drought
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/south-dakota/articles/2021-04-12/missouri-river-managers-turn-attention-from-flood-to-drought
Quote
“Due to the lack of plains snowpack in 2021, below-average mountain snowpack, and dry upper basin conditions, we expect upper basin runoff to be below average.”
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