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SteveMDFP

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #600 on: October 15, 2024, 02:35:07 PM »
No freegrass, I have not been watching fox.  If you are getting your information from them, it appears to be incorrect.  Trump has been consistently referring to illegal immigrants, and they number around 12 million.

Of course, actually deporting that many can't be done without sufficient appropriations authoized by Congress -- which won't happen.

However, the prospect of vitriolic anti-immigrant rhetoric emanating from the White House will have a corrosive impact on the fabric of society.  The President also has the authority to make the lives of undocumented immigrants much more difficult.

Trump's rhetoric is a cynical ploy to drum up support from his base.  He doesn't actually care.  Back when he was involved in the construction of buildings, he surely employed undocumented workers.  They were fine when they were saving him money.

I find the anti-immigrant rhetoric dismaying.  On average, they're much less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans.  They do the work that native-born Americans don't want to do - backbreaking work in construction, agriculture, and child care.  They help the country run the way it needs to.

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #601 on: October 15, 2024, 02:52:31 PM »
Sorry Walrus but the enemy he is referring to is Democrats in opposition like Adam Schift. And if people want no illegal immigrants then they only need to give anyone who employs them a very stiff penalty. And pay farm workers minimum wages , overtime , and benefits so someone who is legal can actually afford to farm. If people have to pay double for food , so what.
Hypocrite fucks.

Who referred to an enemy?

Actually, there are several legal immigrants willing to do the work.  So that argument doesn’t hold water.

Your farming statement appears contradictory.  If farmers pay workers higher wages and benefits, how does that make it more affordable to farm?

Bruce Steele

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #602 on: October 15, 2024, 05:32:52 PM »
Walrus, Listen to “the enemy within” that Free posted. The enemy he refers to are liberals .
And FYI I consider farmworkers farmers. They far outnumber actual farm owners and do a vast amount of the manual labor performed.

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #603 on: October 15, 2024, 06:54:39 PM »
Walrus, Listen to “the enemy within” that Free posted. The enemy he refers to are liberals .
And FYI I consider farmworkers farmers. They far outnumber actual farm owners and do a vast amount of the manual labor performed.

That is where we differ.  They are just hired hands.  They have no vested interest in the land or the crops.  Your numbers may be true in third world countries, where large landowners are still the norm.  However, in the U.S., farm owners (and their families) outnumber the hired hands.

Again, I do not follow Fox News.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #604 on: October 15, 2024, 10:06:32 PM »
Those farmers to farm hands are quite the opposite in Calif.   But honestly they are mostly legal I believe with green cards. They are largely of Mexican descent( and decent) They move their way up the ladder like the rest of us if they have the skills so fieldhands learn to drive tractor , run the GPS, make some decisions about crops , and with enough determination some of them become landowners.
 I don’t listen to Fox either but MSNBC is forever fixated on every stupid thing Trump says so the
“ enemy within “ was heavily covered before I saw Free posted the video. I don’t view the hard right as enemies although I am solidly left of center. I have long term Right wing friends who baffle me with their gullibility but hate is corrosive to one’s soul and I prefer my friends for the good things they do and try to ignore their weaknesses .
 My fellow Americans are not “the enemy” , we disagree on things. Collectively however both right and left are responsible for much harm in this world. I have stood my ground in very public situations where finding something like middle ground was important. I am old now , tired of fighting and mostly too broke to attend meetings around the state or in DC.  I always paid my own bills in the political arena because that way nobody could accuse me of being on the take.
 
« Last Edit: October 15, 2024, 11:38:24 PM by Bruce Steele »

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #605 on: October 15, 2024, 11:31:00 PM »
Cali is probably different from the rest of the country.  Do not see many migrant farm hands here in the Midwest.

We may be more similar politically than others here.  Over the past eight presidential elections, I voted democratic and republican thrice each, with a couple third party candidates in between.  This year, I am likely to make in an even three way split.  Neither the left nor the right are willing to find any common ground.  That leaves those of us in the middle with little choice.  Occasionally, we find someone in either party who has strong beliefs, good ideas, and can actually lead.

In the past, we could debate each other intellectually, without hatred or contempt.  Now, the parties are the leaders in these fronts.  The political ads are only getting worse.  Our only saving grace is that our politicians do not have enough power to much things up too badly.  Some consolation, huh?

zenith

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #606 on: October 16, 2024, 03:54:14 AM »
Cali is probably different from the rest of the country.  Do not see many migrant farm hands here in the Midwest.

the southern border was always deliberately porous, it was seasonal cheap labour from the start. as a result of american imperial policies, like dumping subsidized agricultural products throughout the americas, farmers have become unemployed. climate change plays it's role as does overpopulation and corrupt governments (usually due to american policies - "banana republics").

it's become more global now as globalization (american empire), has spread. mexico is just a transit point. who's selling all those weapons to mexican drug cartels, who's laundering their money?

what americans call "the left" is the right of centre in every other advanced economy.

“John Steinbeck once said that socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.”
― Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress

 
Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

KiwiGriff

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #607 on: October 16, 2024, 05:12:33 AM »
Quote
what americans call "the left" is the right of center in every other advanced economy.
Our far right party ACT is further left than the US democrats. They support continuing NZ,s social welfare  safety net .
Our mainstream left wing party Labour is economically further right than the US republicans. NZ has one of the worlds most free markets in a large part due to Labours policy's in the eighties unlike the USA republicans and their protectionism. Waving around your religion is political death here no one mixes  religion with politics'  except for a very small fringe group that fails to get any traction at the ballot box.
US political positions simply do   not translate in to the political landscape of most of the west . 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

oren

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #608 on: October 16, 2024, 11:21:49 AM »
Quote
Waving around your religion is political death here no one mixes  religion with politics
Lucky you. Religion is what brought about Israel's continuing collapse.

zenith

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #609 on: October 16, 2024, 11:38:27 AM »
Quote
Waving around your religion is political death here no one mixes  religion with politics
Lucky you. Religion is what brought about Israel's continuing collapse.

without religion israel would never have existed to begin with. judaism is a religion (with many sects), nothing more. atheist zionists were waving the torah around as a land deed, the contradiction was baked into the cake from the start.
Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

Bruce Steele

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #610 on: October 17, 2024, 04:40:09 AM »
Oren, The  problem comes at some point when mixing politics with religion means standing up will result in personal risk.  Hell even fish politics was a small risk, I had my boat intentionally  scuttled in the slip once , and got a few late night threatening phone calls , etc. But individual retribution is different than state sanctioned retribution. Religious retribution is a whole other beast.
  Zenith lives in Canada and can be very assured he will never feel a threat from religious extremes. And those of us in the much aligned US can also speak up about most anything without having to worry much about religious persuasion.
  And Walrus and I maybe very different politically but to the degree we both agree reaching some political consensus by dialog rather than threat ,and that we are free to stand up and try ,means the Collapse of America is still not the problem  that  some here would promote.
 At the same time there is still even in the US a deep memory of the history of persecution of religious beliefs. My wife was born into a Jewish family that never raised her in Judaism. I have a good friend who never found out he was also born into a ( Hungarian) Jewish family until his Grandmother on her death bed told the family. She said she was protecting them “ because it might happen again”   
 So mostly we in the US still uphold the right to religious beliefs but the framers of the Constitution were wise beyond their years in the separation of church and state.
 I wish you well Oren in these very trying days. I hope you are always free to speak and that wise men ever value moderation , kindness, and struggle always to walk a mile in the other man’s shoes .
« Last Edit: October 17, 2024, 04:48:20 AM by Bruce Steele »

etienne

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #611 on: October 17, 2024, 07:52:04 AM »
Quote
Waving around your religion is political death here no one mixes  religion with politics
Lucky you. Religion is what brought about Israel's continuing collapse.

without religion israel would never have existed to begin with. judaism is a religion (with many sects), nothing more. atheist zionists were waving the torah around as a land deed, the contradiction was baked into the cake from the start.
This is not 100% true, Judaism used to be a culture with its own language. You had christian Jews before WW2. It was a culture without any government to defend it after the collapse of the Austrian-Hungarian dynasty, with no place where there were enough Jews to say that it could be a Jewish land. Therefore there was the need for a country. Before WW2, other solutions might have been possible, but after not anymore. What was interesting in the US for many Jews was that it is (was) not a nation, just a multi national country, so national groups could live together without too much violence.
I feel that part of the actual problems in the US is that the white right wings Christians are becoming a dominant nation that tries to take the control of the states and of the federal government.
To get more information about this, I recommend a book by Hannah Arendt, The  origins of totalitarianism.

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #612 on: October 17, 2024, 02:51:11 PM »
I went back to the start of this thread that I opened. Too bad the real start got cut off, but in post 11 I said this:

I hear ya! But don't underestimate the incredible wealth Americannot possesses. The Petro Dollar is still the dominant currency in the world. Although that's changing, and will change more when oil fades away as it's being replaced by alternative energy...

America will collapse because of religious extremism and a cold/warm war with China over global dominance
Everything I said here is happening. The petrodollar is no more, which to be honest happened a lot faster than I could have ever imagined, and religious extremism is destroying America. Christian white nationalist fascists are taking over America. This started many decades ago, and thanks to Fox, mega churches, radio hosts, social media, and more, they are winning.

Who let it come this far?
It was Voldemort, he who shall not be named. It was not done to talk about this, and still isn't most of the time.

It was when I bought a computer and got on the internet early 2000 that I got sucked into all the conspiracies. I'm still a truther. The collapse of tower 7 can not be explained away with an office fire. These buildings can withstand a fire like that. They don't implode like it did. Architects agree that this was a controlled demolition.

And then there are the Rothschild conspiracies. I happen to believe that the King of England still rules the world. Almost everyone speaks English by now. And the highest twin towers in the world are in a British colony now. The Petronas twin towers were finished in August 1999, and in September 2001, the start of a new millennium, the old twin towers were gone. I see those twin towers as a cathedral of power. The center of the world is in Asia now, where the British crown rules Australia, and a few Commonwealth countries, like Malaysia, a moderate Islamic country.

I believe that the British crown turned its back on America, thinking that they would become great again with Brexit, but ran into a bump in the road with that. But the British kingdom still rules the world IMHO. Rupert Murdoch was Australian. He single-handedly destroyed all credibility in the media.

So what I really want to say is that my generation believes that governments don't rule the world anymore. Many here on this forum do as well. We all have someone to blame for all the mess in the world. And so very few believe that their vote still matters.

And that's the last nail in our coffin, isn't it? When people stop caring, evil takes over.

So “they” won already. The climate is out of control, and nobody seems to care anymore. We are the frogs slowly getting boiled, and increasingly fewer of us are trying to climb out.

The Jews will suffer again under American fascism this time. Remember “Jews will not replace us”?
Luckily they have a Jewish state to flee too now.

And then we get to my last point. China. I often wonder if Hong Kong went back to China, or that China joined Hong Kong. The unification made China great again. No Trade for China without Singapore.

America is toast. It will be a failed state soon. Curious what it will look like in 4 years from now. We may be in WWIII by then. But the center of the world is moving back east, where it mostly was in ancient times. It's where all the people live stupid. And the British are there.

So who rules the world? “They” do. We are just the common people, ready to be used and abused.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

oren

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #613 on: October 17, 2024, 03:46:43 PM »
Quote
Luckily they have a Jewish state to flee too now.
I won't respond to the conspiracy nonsense.
But many secular Jewish Israelis are currently considering emigration (and some actually doing it already) due to the ongoing collapse which is only getting worse.
Good luck to the jews fleeing into the country, maybe if they are very religious they will be happy to live under a supremacist religious rule and with constant war.
But really it's best to avoid discussing Israel, it's quite useless.

Back on topic, I agree that religious fanaticism ia taking over the US as well and causing similar problems, though collapse is still further away and might yet be avoided.

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #614 on: October 17, 2024, 04:13:30 PM »
Back on topic, I agree that religious fanaticism ia taking over the US as well and causing similar problems, though collapse is still further away and might yet be avoided.
That'll all depend on the election. If Trump wins, it'll be absolute chaos, the end of NATO, and Russia invading the Baltics if Trump keeps his word on that.

Netanyahu will open the gates to Egypt, and kick out all the Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank without repercussions.

Europe will stand alone, and may be at war with Russia when he starts invading NATO countries.

That's why Kamala needs to win, but it's not looking good. I hope I'm wrong.
19 days to go...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Ranman99

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #615 on: October 17, 2024, 04:18:47 PM »
@Freegrass I spent that last 23 years in Malaysia and Singapore and your rant was fun to read. I get it I truly do.

I was in Tower Two of the Twin Towers the day after 911 and had to walk down from the 68th floor due to a bomb threat. When the USA started to bomb in Afghanistan, CNN showed a protest from the embassy with water cannons, etc. I was there. Really, about 200 people took their lunch and ate on the street, and the fire brigade shot a mist up in the air to keep people cool. CNN did not show that part. I knew ever since that it was all bullshit. What I saw on CNN that evening was totally contrived and the narrative was not what had happened—blatant lies.

For a man on the ground, I don't concur with every point you made, but I do agree today's power games are wild out of control. I don't think it is really countries that wield the power, but they are the tools of the power elite that transcend those borders but are more closely linked to some rather than others. I also think that unfortunately these games will only get more bloody as we careen through this expanding crisis after crisis period that marks the trajectory of our species at this time. I guess it has always been like this but as the footprint of Sapiens has expanded so has the breadth of our crisis creating abilities.

Some decades ago, when there was conflict/war, they used to pretend they wanted to get folks around the table to discuss how to achieve peace and the terms of peace, to negotiate a way out. Now, they don't even bother with that.
😎

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #616 on: October 17, 2024, 05:13:09 PM »
@Freegrass I spent that last 23 years in Malaysia and Singapore and your rant was fun to read. I get it I truly do.
Malaysia Boleh! I love that country. I was there for the first time in 1996, and spend a total of almost 2 years there. It's such a beautiful country. I saw the Twin Towers getting build. That's when I knew something was changing in the East. Build it, and they will come. And surely they did.

You're right that war has been a part of humanity for thousands of years. It started when we were still apes. Chimpanzees still go to war. So it must be in our DNA. We're no bonobos. But the problem is that we have nuclear weapons now. They have brought a lot of relative stability in the last decades, but now it's been too long that we had “a good fight”. Social media and others helped in creating the divide. Religious differences have always been easy to manipulate people into war.

It seems like we will never learn. I'm just afraid that we will blow up the entire world this time.

About my theory: it's mine. It's what I believe, but it doesn't matter what I believe. There's nothing we can do about it if it's true. What I really wanted to say with that theory is that we all have someone to blame for all the mess in the world. And that most people believe that their vote doesn't matter anymore. When that happens, it's the beginning of the end.

We have no more Gandi's or Nelson Mandela's anymore. The good gets drowned out by the evil now. They must be part of deep state.

Good thing I'm a bit of a Buddhist. Impermanence. Nothing lasts forever. The sooner you accept that, the easier it will be to accept that we're all going to die.  ;)
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

etienne

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #617 on: October 17, 2024, 07:15:26 PM »
LOL Freegrass

Vance has all the characteristics of a totalitarian leader - many bad sides and able to make a career - all what people need to identify themselves (he is worse than me and became great, so he will know how to help me). He also has an ideology that is not only for the US, but that he would like to apply to the whole planet.

In the US, there are many people they would like to export, this is also a good basis for a totalitarian system.

The thing is that even if Kamala wins, you already can be scared of what will be in 4 years.

I feel like totalitarian leader can delay the collapse.

It might be that totalitarian leaders become stronger during collapse phases

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #618 on: October 17, 2024, 07:51:08 PM »
LOL Freegrass

Vance has all the characteristics of a totalitarian leader - many bad sides and able to make a career - all what people need to identify themselves (he is worse than me and became great, so he will know how to help me). He also has an ideology that is not only for the US, but that he would like to apply to the whole planet.

In the US, there are many people they would like to export, this is also a good basis for a totalitarian system.

The thing is that even if Kamala wins, you already can be scared of what will be in 4 years.

I feel like totalitarian leader can delay the collapse.

It might be that totalitarian leaders become stronger during collapse phases
I’m not sure what will happen when Trump loses. For sure, they will challenge the election results again. If it's close, it may end up depending on a supreme court decision again, and then the democrats will revolt, upon which Trump will use the army.

If they can't keep Kamala out of office, the GOP will probably collapse. There will be a lot of infighting and probably a split. I don't think they will be able to recover before the next election. JD Vance is not respected enough to be their leader. But who knew that Trump would ever be in a position again that he could win this election too? So who knows what's going to happen? All I can do to keep him out of office is Tweet. So that's what I'm doing now. I'm fighting with Russian bots.  :-\
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

zenith

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #619 on: October 17, 2024, 08:03:25 PM »
you guys are a little behind the times, and no, russia won't invade nato countries. they're not insane, the west is insane. you can thank the right wing democrats/liberals/globalists/oligarchs/neoliberalism...

they aren't christians, they're heretics in every sense of the word.

American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War on America Paperback – Jan. 8 2008
https://www.amazon.ca/American-Fascists-Christian-Right-America/dp/0743284461

"Twenty-five years ago, when Pat Robertson and other radio and televangelists first spoke of the United States becoming a Christian nation that would build a global Christian empire, it was hard to take such hyperbolic rhetoric seriously. Today, such language no longer sounds like hyperbole but poses, instead, a very real threat to our freedom and our way of life. In American Fascists, Chris Hedges, veteran journalist and author of the National Book Award finalist War Is a Force That Gives Us Meaning, challenges the Christian Right's religious legitimacy and argues that at its core it is a mass movement fueled by unbridled nationalism and a hatred for the open society.

Hedges, who grew up in rural parishes in upstate New York where his father was a Presbyterian pastor, attacks the movement as someone steeped in the Bible and Christian tradition. He points to the hundreds of senators and members of Congress who have earned between 80 and 100 percent approval ratings from the three most influential Christian Right advocacy groups as one of many signs that the movement is burrowing deep inside the American government to subvert it. The movement's call to dismantle the wall between church and state and the intolerance it preaches against all who do not conform to its warped vision of a Christian America are pumped into tens of millions of American homes through Christian television and radio stations, as well as reinforced through the curriculum in Christian schools. The movement's yearning for apocalyptic violence and its assault on dispassionate, intellectual inquiry are laying the foundation for a new, frightening America.

American Fascists, which includes interviews and coverage of events such as pro-life rallies and weeklong classes on conversion techniques, examines the movement's origins, its driving motivations and its dark ideological underpinnings. Hedges argues that the movement currently resembles the young fascist movements in Italy and Germany in the 1920s and '30s, movements that often masked the full extent of their drive for totalitarianism and were willing to make concessions until they achieved unrivaled power. The Christian Right, like these early fascist movements, does not openly call for dictatorship, nor does it use

physical violence to suppress opposition. In short, the movement is not yet revolutionary. But the ideological architecture of a Christian fascism is being cemented in place. The movement has roused its followers to a fever pitch of despair and fury. All it will take, Hedges writes, is one more national crisis on the order of September 11 for the Christian Right to make a concerted drive to destroy American democracy. The movement awaits a crisis. At that moment they will reveal themselves for what they truly are -- the American heirs to fascism. Hedges issues a potent, impassioned warning. We face an imminent threat. His book reminds us of the dangers liberal, democratic societies face when they tolerate the intolerant."
-------------

America: The Farewell Tour Hardcover – Jan. 1 2018
https://www.amazon.ca/America-Farewell-Tour-Chris-Hedges/dp/150115267X

"Chris Hedges’s profound and provocative examination of America in crisis is “an exceedingly…provocative book, certain to arouse controversy, but offering a point of view that needs to be heard” (Booklist), about how bitter hopelessness and malaise have resulted in a culture of sadism and hate.

America, says Pulitzer Prize­–winning reporter Chris Hedges, is convulsed by an array of pathologies that have arisen out of profound hopelessness, a bitter despair, and a civil society that has ceased to function. The opioid crisis; the retreat into gambling to cope with economic distress; the pornification of culture; the rise of magical thinking; the celebration of sadism, hate, and plagues of suicides are the physical manifestations of a society that is being ravaged by corporate pillage and a failed democracy. As our society unravels, we also face global upheaval caused by catastrophic climate change. All these ills presage a frightening reconfiguration of the nation and the planet.

Donald Trump rode this disenchantment to power. In his “forceful and direct” (Publishers Weekly) America: The Farewell Tour, Hedges argues that neither political party, now captured by corporate power, addresses the systemic problem. Until our corporate coup d’état is reversed these diseases will grow and ravage the country. “With a trademark blend of…sharply observed detail, Hedges writes a requiem for the American dream” (Kirkus Reviews) and seeks to jolt us out of our complacency while there is still time."
----------------

Miriam Adelson gives $100 million to Trump campaign, making good on reported pledge
Gift from the prolific pro-Israel donor is the largest among new batch of major spending disclosures, eclipses the $75 million that Elon Musk recently gave to a pro-Trump PAC
https://www.timesofisrael.com/miriam-adelson-gives-100-million-to-trump-campaign-making-good-on-reported-pledge/
Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

The Walrus

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #620 on: October 17, 2024, 09:34:33 PM »
LOL Freegrass

Vance has all the characteristics of a totalitarian leader - many bad sides and able to make a career - all what people need to identify themselves (he is worse than me and became great, so he will know how to help me). He also has an ideology that is not only for the US, but that he would like to apply to the whole planet.

In the US, there are many people they would like to export, this is also a good basis for a totalitarian system.

The thing is that even if Kamala wins, you already can be scared of what will be in 4 years.

I feel like totalitarian leader can delay the collapse.

It might be that totalitarian leaders become stronger during collapse phases
I’m not sure what will happen when Trump loses. For sure, they will challenge the election results again. If it's close, it may end up depending on a supreme court decision again, and then the democrats will revolt, upon which Trump will use the army.

If they can't keep Kamala out of office, the GOP will probably collapse. There will be a lot of infighting and probably a split. I don't think they will be able to recover before the next election. JD Vance is not respected enough to be their leader. But who knew that Trump would ever be in a position again that he could win this election too? So who knows what's going to happen? All I can do to keep him out of office is Tweet. So that's what I'm doing now. I'm fighting with Russian bots.  :-\

If Trump loses, no doubt he will challenge the results.  It could go to the supreme court, if we get a scenario similar to 2000.  But I doubt it will come to that.  He cannot use the army.  That is impossible.  Biden is still commander in chief, until the next president is sworn in.

The GOP is currently split - due to Trump.  If he loses, there is a better chance that the party will come back together, and recover before the next election.  The GOP primaries generally consisted of pro- vs anti- Trump candidates.  The pro-candidates have had the upper hand recently.  Should  Trump lose again, that is likely to reverse.  Still, he is eligible to run again, and would likely try.   

Correct - Vance will never be a leader.  Unless Trump gets elected and dies in office.

I think your "When" conjunction is rather wishful thinking.  Harris' popularity is waning, which does not bode well for her.  Most gaming sites are favoring Trump to win.

Rodius

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #621 on: October 18, 2024, 02:10:45 AM »
LOL Freegrass

Vance has all the characteristics of a totalitarian leader - many bad sides and able to make a career - all what people need to identify themselves (he is worse than me and became great, so he will know how to help me). He also has an ideology that is not only for the US, but that he would like to apply to the whole planet.

In the US, there are many people they would like to export, this is also a good basis for a totalitarian system.

The thing is that even if Kamala wins, you already can be scared of what will be in 4 years.

I feel like totalitarian leader can delay the collapse.

It might be that totalitarian leaders become stronger during collapse phases
I’m not sure what will happen when Trump loses. For sure, they will challenge the election results again. If it's close, it may end up depending on a supreme court decision again, and then the democrats will revolt, upon which Trump will use the army.

If they can't keep Kamala out of office, the GOP will probably collapse. There will be a lot of infighting and probably a split. I don't think they will be able to recover before the next election. JD Vance is not respected enough to be their leader. But who knew that Trump would ever be in a position again that he could win this election too? So who knows what's going to happen? All I can do to keep him out of office is Tweet. So that's what I'm doing now. I'm fighting with Russian bots.  :-\

If Trump loses, no doubt he will challenge the results.  It could go to the supreme court, if we get a scenario similar to 2000.  But I doubt it will come to that.  He cannot use the army.  That is impossible.  Biden is still commander in chief, until the next president is sworn in.

The GOP is currently split - due to Trump.  If he loses, there is a better chance that the party will come back together, and recover before the next election.  The GOP primaries generally consisted of pro- vs anti- Trump candidates.  The pro-candidates have had the upper hand recently.  Should  Trump lose again, that is likely to reverse.  Still, he is eligible to run again, and would likely try.   

Correct - Vance will never be a leader.  Unless Trump gets elected and dies in office.

I think your "When" conjunction is rather wishful thinking.  Harris' popularity is waning, which does not bode well for her.  Most gaming sites are favoring Trump to win.

For Trump to have a successful coup should he lose the election, he will need the military leadership's support. While coups have been successful without military control, it is very rare and almost always unsuccessful. Without that, any coup attempt by Trump will almost certainly fail and will be little more than a publicity stunt on Trump's part that will be disruptive but probably unsuccessful.

The question that needs answering, if this whole Trump coup is to be taken seriously, is whether he has the support of the military or a significant portion of it. I don't think Trump is stupid (or crazy) enough to attempt a military-based coup because that means civil war. If he loses, he will cry and throw tantrums and cause mild chaos before being pushed into history to be forgotten or remembered as a terrible person/president.

As for Harris, if she wins it will be more of the same.
Which isn't good either but at least it is more predictable.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #622 on: October 18, 2024, 02:34:29 AM »
LOL Freegrass

Vance has all the characteristics of a totalitarian leader - many bad sides and able to make a career - all what people need to identify themselves (he is worse than me and became great, so he will know how to help me). He also has an ideology that is not only for the US, but that he would like to apply to the whole planet.

In the US, there are many people they would like to export, this is also a good basis for a totalitarian system.

The thing is that even if Kamala wins, you already can be scared of what will be in 4 years.

I feel like totalitarian leader can delay the collapse.

It might be that totalitarian leaders become stronger during collapse phases
I’m not sure what will happen when Trump loses. For sure, they will challenge the election results again. If it's close, it may end up depending on a supreme court decision again, and then the democrats will revolt, upon which Trump will use the army.

If they can't keep Kamala out of office, the GOP will probably collapse. There will be a lot of infighting and probably a split. I don't think they will be able to recover before the next election. JD Vance is not respected enough to be their leader. But who knew that Trump would ever be in a position again that he could win this election too? So who knows what's going to happen? All I can do to keep him out of office is Tweet. So that's what I'm doing now. I'm fighting with Russian bots.  :-\

If Trump loses, no doubt he will challenge the results.  It could go to the supreme court, if we get a scenario similar to 2000.  But I doubt it will come to that.  He cannot use the army.  That is impossible.  Biden is still commander in chief, until the next president is sworn in.

The GOP is currently split - due to Trump.  If he loses, there is a better chance that the party will come back together, and recover before the next election.  The GOP primaries generally consisted of pro- vs anti- Trump candidates.  The pro-candidates have had the upper hand recently.  Should  Trump lose again, that is likely to reverse.  Still, he is eligible to run again, and would likely try.   

Correct - Vance will never be a leader.  Unless Trump gets elected and dies in office.

I think your "When" conjunction is rather wishful thinking.  Harris' popularity is waning, which does not bode well for her.  Most gaming sites are favoring Trump to win.

For Trump to have a successful coup should he lose the election, he will need the military leadership's support. While coups have been successful without military control, it is very rare and almost always unsuccessful. Without that, any coup attempt by Trump will almost certainly fail and will be little more than a publicity stunt on Trump's part that will be disruptive but probably unsuccessful.

The question that needs answering, if this whole Trump coup is to be taken seriously, is whether he has the support of the military or a significant portion of it. I don't think Trump is stupid (or crazy) enough to attempt a military-based coup because that means civil war. If he loses, he will cry and throw tantrums and cause mild chaos before being pushed into history to be forgotten or remembered as a terrible person/president.

As for Harris, if she wins it will be more of the same.
Which isn't good either but at least it is more predictable.
The way they're trying to steal the election is with the electors. They want to sow doubt with the counting as well, and then via court cases get it all the way up to the supreme court, that will probably decide in Trump’s favor.

It'll be after he is sworn in that he can start using the military to crush the demonstration. And then we end up in a cycle of violence.

America will implode from within, and those countries will never get back up again.

Billionaires have houses all over the world, so they'll move out first. And many will follow when it all comes crashing down.

The British crown will be happy that they finally got those Americans back for kicking them out of the country, and they still have Canada. And India, and South East Asia and the Middle East.

How they'll make the pound the world's reserve currency again, I don't know. Should be the Euro, the second reserve currency at the moment. But if America and Europe split, it's better to get out of the way. Hence, Brexit.

And now I'm gonna wait and see if any of this comes true.  lol  8)
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #623 on: October 18, 2024, 05:07:23 AM »
Free, You gotta be kidding bra. We got acreage of da kine and no way we be crazy and start no riot dude.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #624 on: October 18, 2024, 05:23:57 AM »
Freegrass.... the scenario you suggested is highly unlikely.

My guess.... Trump will win with the vote which will forever boggle my mind.
Trump will attempt to be president forever and will probably fail.

In the meantime, he will work hard to contain the power within a circle of friends and enrich himself of other super wealthy people.

Globally, he will likely retreat from helping Ukraine and focus on China more with tariffs and sanctions.

America First will become America Firster and their economy will suffer for it.

It is unlikely to be the end of the world.

Harris.... more of the same.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #625 on: October 18, 2024, 05:49:29 AM »
Hitler was democratically elected then used his own troops and organization SA and SS to terrorize the population in order to keep people quiet. Staline also didn't use the army for his deeds.
They both already used fake news, just that it used to be called propaganda (a fake news with a political interest).
Trump is old, I'm more afraid of who will come after him. Trump might be more like Mussolini, money and power would be all he wants, but he opens the way for others. The problem is that we have many examples of how it works,  living and past ones.
It may delay or hide collapse,  but would make it even worse at the end.

Hannah Arendt in the origins of totalitarianism,  Google Translate
Quote
To this aversion of the intellectual elite to official historiography, to its conviction that history, rigged in any case, could without harm become the playground of the enlightened, must be added this terrible and demoralizing fascination: enormous lies, monstrous untruths, can ultimately be posed as incontestable facts, man can be free to change his past at will, and the difference between truth and lies can cease to be objective and become a simple matter of power and cunning, of pressure and infinite repetition. The fascination arose not from the skill of Stalin and Hitler in the art of lying, but from the fact that they were able to organize the masses into a collective unity which supported their lies with impressive magnificence. Pure and simple tricks from the point of view of science seemed to receive the sanction of history itself when the whole reality of the movements in progress supported them and claimed to draw from them the inspiration necessary for action.

Quote
No paradox of contemporary politics exudes a more poignant irony than this gap between the efforts of well-meaning idealists, who persist in regarding as "inalienable" those human rights enjoyed only by citizens of the most prosperous and civilized countries, and the situation of those without rights. Their situation has deteriorated just as stubbornly, until the internment camp - which before the Second World War was the exception rather than the rule for stateless persons - has become the routine solution to the problem of the domiciliation of displaced persons."
« Last Edit: October 18, 2024, 06:36:59 AM by etienne »

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #626 on: October 18, 2024, 08:13:20 AM »
Hitler was democratically elected then used his own troops and organization SA and SS to terrorize the population in order to keep people quiet. Staline also didn't use the army for his deeds.
They both already used fake news, just that it used to be called propaganda (a fake news with a political interest).
Trump is old, I'm more afraid of who will come after him. Trump might be more like Mussolini, money and power would be all he wants, but he opens the way for others. The problem is that we have many examples of how it works,  living and past ones.
It may delay or hide collapse,  but would make it even worse at the end.

Hannah Arendt in the origins of totalitarianism,  Google Translate
Quote
To this aversion of the intellectual elite to official historiography, to its conviction that history, rigged in any case, could without harm become the playground of the enlightened, must be added this terrible and demoralizing fascination: enormous lies, monstrous untruths, can ultimately be posed as incontestable facts, man can be free to change his past at will, and the difference between truth and lies can cease to be objective and become a simple matter of power and cunning, of pressure and infinite repetition. The fascination arose not from the skill of Stalin and Hitler in the art of lying, but from the fact that they were able to organize the masses into a collective unity which supported their lies with impressive magnificence. Pure and simple tricks from the point of view of science seemed to receive the sanction of history itself when the whole reality of the movements in progress supported them and claimed to draw from them the inspiration necessary for action.

Quote
No paradox of contemporary politics exudes a more poignant irony than this gap between the efforts of well-meaning idealists, who persist in regarding as "inalienable" those human rights enjoyed only by citizens of the most prosperous and civilized countries, and the situation of those without rights. Their situation has deteriorated just as stubbornly, until the internment camp - which before the Second World War was the exception rather than the rule for stateless persons - has become the routine solution to the problem of the domiciliation of displaced persons."

Hitler... was there a functioning army in Germany at the time?
He also had a militant group of thugs.

I don't know enough about Stalin but he played a role in attacking Georgia successfully, so he had contacts. He may not have had control of the Govt military but there was almost certainly a military aspect to the rise of Stalin. I might be wrong, and even if I am, the exception doesn't mean anything other than Stalin beat the odds... focus on the part where almost all coups fail without a militant aspect to it.

Trump, as far as I can tell, doesn't have that aspect so the odds of success are very low.

Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #627 on: October 18, 2024, 10:33:18 AM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #628 on: October 18, 2024, 11:06:43 AM »
Quote
The fascination arose not from the skill of Stalin and Hitler in the art of lying, but from the fact that they were able to organize the masses into a collective unity which supported their lies with impressive magnificence.

As was seen recently with the COVID scare and the Ukraine war. Arendt clearly knew what she was talking about. These are all signs of collapse. It's the inevitable irony of the triumph of liberalism.
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #629 on: October 18, 2024, 11:30:53 AM »
Harris.... more of the same.
Indeed. Good or bad, Harris will bring stability to the world for 8 years, and a little more hope that we finally start fixing the climate in earnest. I don't care about anything else. We need those 8 years for the climate, or it'll be game over for everyone.
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #630 on: October 18, 2024, 01:27:03 PM »
Harris.... more of the same.
Indeed. Good or bad, Harris will bring stability to the world for 8 years, and a little more hope that we finally start fixing the climate in earnest. I don't care about anything else. We need those 8 years for the climate, or it'll be game over for everyone.

Umm.... I don't think Harris will bring stability at all.
She will do more of the same, which is more bullshit tactics to undermine China, Russia and the Middle East. Take a look at what is happening now and how it is worsening... Harris will continue down that same path.

She is unlikely to make much traction with climate or environmental issues because the recent past hasn't seen anywhere near enough, we will get more of the same... I am sure you agree that more of the same in that issue is a bad thing.

As for the game being over, it is already over. There is a delay in the end, but we are already there. Even if we magically took these issues seriously, I don't think enough can happen to prevent a complete collapse of the global civilisation as it is today.

Harris is not an answer, just like Trump isnt.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #631 on: October 18, 2024, 01:27:15 PM »
Quote
The fascination arose not from the skill of Stalin and Hitler in the art of lying, but from the fact that they were able to organize the masses into a collective unity which supported their lies with impressive magnificence.

As was seen recently with the COVID scare and the Ukraine war. Arendt clearly knew what she was talking about. These are all signs of collapse. It's the inevitable irony of the triumph of liberalism.
Neven,  I don't really understand why you believe that some lie less than the others.  Telling the inconvenient truth about your enemies doesn't make a honest person out of yourself.
Mr Putin is a former secret services agent, not the kind of person you can trust. It's not exactly Ghandi who educated him.

With Trump, talking openly about his affairs with women doesn't make him either a honest man regarding the other aspects of his life.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #632 on: October 18, 2024, 01:29:01 PM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.

If you want to win a bet, put it on Trump.
As for the consequences of Trump winning, well, my guess is it wont be good but at least you win the bet.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #633 on: October 18, 2024, 01:52:41 PM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.

If you want to win a bet, put it on Trump.
As for the consequences of Trump winning, well, my guess is it wont be good but at least you win the bet.

Agree.  Trump lost last time largely due to the Covid epidemic.  Also, Biden was seen as a likable middle of the road candidate, in contrast to Trump, Clinton, and Sanders.  Harris is not Biden, and does not exude confidence with the electorate.  The party tried to prop her up as the salvation of the country, but many are realizing she would just be a party puppet.  I do not believe that she would enact the climate initiatives that freegrass would like.  As mentioned by others, either would be more of the same.  Dictatorship is just feet mongering.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #634 on: October 18, 2024, 02:23:25 PM »
Harris.... more of the same.
Indeed. Good or bad, Harris will bring stability to the world for 8 years, and a little more hope that we finally start fixing the climate in earnest. I don't care about anything else. We need those 8 years for the climate, or it'll be game over for everyone.

Umm.... I don't think Harris will bring stability at all.
She will do more of the same, which is more bullshit tactics to undermine China, Russia and the Middle East. Take a look at what is happening now and how it is worsening... Harris will continue down that same path.

She is unlikely to make much traction with climate or environmental issues because the recent past hasn't seen anywhere near enough, we will get more of the same... I am sure you agree that more of the same in that issue is a bad thing.

As for the game being over, it is already over. There is a delay in the end, but we are already there. Even if we magically took these issues seriously, I don't think enough can happen to prevent a complete collapse of the global civilisation as it is today.

Harris is not an answer, just like Trump isnt.
Damn, I almost finished a great long reply, and then I lost it. grrrrr >:( I hate it when that happens. I used to have a great add-on that kept a backup, and then it was impossible for that to happen. But that add-on is gone now, and I can't find a replacement. Does anyone have a suggestion? I'm so angry that I lost that post again. grrrrr >:(
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #635 on: October 18, 2024, 05:24:27 PM »
Walrus, Again I would say the difference between Calif. and the Midwest is obvious by your kinda myopic view of who “the electorate” has confidence in. California will by a huge faction favor Harris as will New York and most every large metropolitan center. So numbers wise Harris will win the vote count but the electoral college is something else. If we are counting humans “the electorate” will vote for Harris, this implies they have confidence in her. If we separate women from men half of “the electorate” will again undoubtably favor Harris.
 In a couple weeks we can fact check my projection against yours. Climate projections are so much harder to bet on due to the timelines involved.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2024, 05:45:52 PM by Bruce Steele »

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #636 on: October 18, 2024, 08:03:17 PM »
keaton weiss - "you know, i just filed my taxes yesterday because i had the six month extension, and man, to hit file and send these scumbags money when this is what they're doing with it. it's a truly evil state we've turned into, forget about israel, we know about that. the fact that almost everyone to a person in your government supports this, it really... it really shows this country for what it is. there's no unseeing that, there's no unthinking that in my opinion."

russel dobular - "well there's such a disconnect between the public and the state, most people are not for this, the majority of people, even the majority of republicans at this point are not for this. it's just, there's been a complete breakdown in this 'democratic' experiment. the money ate the state and now you can choose coke or you can choose pepsi, no 7-up."

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #637 on: October 18, 2024, 09:20:36 PM »
Walrus, Again I would say the difference between Calif. and the Midwest is obvious by your kinda myopic view of who “the electorate” has confidence in. California will by a huge faction favor Harris as will New York and most every large metropolitan center. So numbers wise Harris will win the vote count but the electoral college is something else. If we are counting humans “the electorate” will vote for Harris, this implies they have confidence in her. If we separate women from men half of “the electorate” will again undoubtably favor Harris.
 In a couple weeks we can fact check my projection against yours. Climate projections are so much harder to bet on due to the timelines involved.

That in all likelihood could happen.  Clinton receive 2% more votes than Trump, but lost by 77 electoral votes.  Biden received 4% more votes and won by 74 EVs.  Hence, 3% appears to be the break even point.  Currently, Harris is polling around 2.5% higher.  The number are against her, although specifics will matter.

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #638 on: October 18, 2024, 10:18:14 PM »
Walrus, Again I would say the difference between Calif. and the Midwest is obvious by your kinda myopic view of who “the electorate” has confidence in. California will by a huge faction favor Harris as will New York and most every large metropolitan center. So numbers wise Harris will win the vote count but the electoral college is something else. If we are counting humans “the electorate” will vote for Harris, this implies they have confidence in her. If we separate women from men half of “the electorate” will again undoubtably favor Harris.
 In a couple weeks we can fact check my projection against yours. Climate projections are so much harder to bet on due to the timelines involved.

That in all likelihood could happen.  Clinton receive 2% more votes than Trump, but lost by 77 electoral votes.  Biden received 4% more votes and won by 74 EVs.  Hence, 3% appears to be the break even point.  Currently, Harris is polling around 2.5% higher.  The number are against her, although specifics will matter.

The polls are rubbish. It will all come down to enthusiasm, as usual. Who's more excited to vote? Who will turn out? And I think that there's more energy on the democratic side.

There are likely also a lot of silent Republican votes for Harris. People that just had enough of Trump but aren't saying it, out of fear for their friends.

At least I hope so...  :-[
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #639 on: October 19, 2024, 07:27:24 AM »
Another quote from Hannah Arendt that I believe applies to our context:
Quote
Totalitarian propaganda perfects the techniques of mass propaganda, but it does not invent them or create their themes. These were prepared by the fifty years that saw the rise of imperialism and the disintegration of the nation-state, once the populace had entered the European political scene. Like the mob leaders before, the spokesmen of the totalitarian movements had an unerring flair for all the subjects that the usual party propaganda or public opinion neglected or feared to touch upon. Everything that was hidden, everything that was passed over in silence became highly significant, regardless of its intrinsic importance. The populace really believed that the truth was everything that respectable society had hypocritically passed over in silence, or covered up by corruption.
Trump doesn't apply yet as a totalitarian leader, because he still says what he is going to do. Totalitarian regime would refer to non real natural laws - for example that some populations are genetically unfit and therefore will disappear - and once in power would make sure that it will happen, like a murderer predicting the death of his victim.
References to "science " provides a cover for the worst lies, and if elected,  it is often possible  to make the predictions become true.

One more quote:
Quote
What the masses refuse to recognize is the fortuitous character in which reality is bathed. They are predisposed to all ideologies because these explain facts as mere examples of laws and eliminate coincidences by inventing a supreme and universal power that is supposed to be at the origin of all accidents. Totalitarian propaganda flourishes in this flight from reality to fiction, from coincidence to coherence.
This is her explanation regarding the success of all the conspiracy theories, which I believe are not just fake news,  but planned propaganda.

Again Google translate.  I found an efficient way to quote Hannah Arendt,  The origins of totalitarianism.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2024, 07:42:41 AM by etienne »

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #640 on: October 20, 2024, 03:15:13 PM »
Walrus, Again I would say the difference between Calif. and the Midwest is obvious by your kinda myopic view of who “the electorate” has confidence in. California will by a huge faction favor Harris as will New York and most every large metropolitan center. So numbers wise Harris will win the vote count but the electoral college is something else. If we are counting humans “the electorate” will vote for Harris, this implies they have confidence in her. If we separate women from men half of “the electorate” will again undoubtably favor Harris.
 In a couple weeks we can fact check my projection against yours. Climate projections are so much harder to bet on due to the timelines involved.

That in all likelihood could happen.  Clinton receive 2% more votes than Trump, but lost by 77 electoral votes.  Biden received 4% more votes and won by 74 EVs.  Hence, 3% appears to be the break even point.  Currently, Harris is polling around 2.5% higher.  The number are against her, although specifics will matter.

The polls are rubbish. It will all come down to enthusiasm, as usual. Who's more excited to vote? Who will turn out? And I think that there's more energy on the democratic side.

There are likely also a lot of silent Republican votes for Harris. People that just had enough of Trump but aren't saying it, out of fear for their friends.

At least I hope so...  :-[

They are not total rubbish.  The last two elections have been off by similar margins.  Unless the pollsters corrected their deficiencies, I expect a similar occurrence this time.

Typically, democrats are the more energetic voters.  But trump was able to generate more energy on the republican side, while Clinton failed to do so on the democratic side.  Biden was able to generate more enthusiasm last time, but he was aided by the pandemic and loosed voting rules.  Neither of these are present this election. 

Additionally, the 2020 census shifted the electoral college towards the Republican Party but a net six votes (based on 2020 presidential results). 

Republicans are less enthusiastic about Trump this time, but Harris has not garnered the same support Biden did four years ago.  Remember, Trump’s victory in 2016 was more a repudiation of Clinton, than approval of him.  This election will likely be decided in a similar manner.  Who wins likely be decided in two states:  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  If Harris loses either, she is in trouble, unless she can flip North Carolina, which has voted for the democratic candidate just once over the past ten elections.

morganism

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #641 on: October 20, 2024, 08:09:28 PM »
 The Border Crisis Won’t Be Solved at the Border

If Texas officials wanted to stop the arrival of undocumented immigrants, they could try to make it impossible for them to work here. But that would devastate the state’s economy. So instead politicians engage in border theater. 


(....)
One of those forces is the worsening economic and political calamity across much of Latin America and the Caribbean. Violence committed by gangs and corrupt cops in Marco’s native Honduras—and in Ecuador, Haiti, Mexico, and Venezuela—has also driven tens of thousands northward. But arguably the most important factor—one too rarely considered—is the interplay of supply and demand. In 2021, as the pandemic began to ease, “We’re Hiring” signs started to appear in the windows of businesses across the U.S. Acute labor shortages hobbled entire industries, interrupting supply chains and fueling inflation. In response, a record number of workers crossed the southern border.

Many industries have slowly recovered from the COVID-era labor crisis. Economists generally agree that the surge in immigration played a huge role in that recovery. But across the country, employers still say they can’t fill vacancies, even as some have increased wages to varying degrees. “America is facing a worker shortage crisis: There are too many open jobs without people to fill them,” the U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned in September. According to the chamber, Texas has just eighty workers for every hundred open jobs.

The deficit in construction is historic, by some measures. Associated Builders and Contractors, a trade association, reported that in 2022 the industry averaged more job openings per month than it had ever recorded. Texas building executives are speaking in apocalyptic terms about the labor shortage they’re still facing. Behind closed doors, they bluntly acknowledge that countless new projects won’t get off the ground unless they hire workers who are in the country illegally. In a survey conducted this September by another trade group, 77 percent of construction firms with job openings, and 74 percent of those in Texas, reported that they were struggling to fill them.

The obvious economic solution for a tight labor market is to raise wages. But here some in the construction industry are hobbled by long-entrenched attitudes. Since at least the eighties, when Ronald Reagan led a crackdown on unions, firms have become addicted to cheap undocumented labor. Blue-collar wages had, for decades, failed to keep up with inflation, though that trend started to shift in 2020.

But the industry also faces a labor-force problem it cannot address quickly simply by raising pay. For two decades, the number of U.S.-born workers entering the construction trade has nosedived. Even if tomorrow all companies raised wages high enough to lure Texans away from their laptop jobs, it could take years of training to condition these newcomers to the rigors of building.

Cutting off the supply of undocumented workers, then, would be like cutting off the supply of concrete and lumber. Far fewer homes and businesses would be built in the next few decades. It would push up the prices paid by those who buy homes and office buildings. So an inviolable relationship has developed between new construction and migrants: If you build, they will come.

Whenever Texas politicians threaten to pass laws that would make it harder for businesses to employ undocumented workers, phones in the Capitol start ringing. Stuck with the need to show their base that they’re cracking down on migrants, politicians, including Abbott, have instead found a middle ground: They keep up their bombast regarding the border, but they avoid stringing any razor wire between undocumented immigrants and jobs in the state’s interior.

Today, Texas is home to some 1.6 million undocumented immigrants, according to a Pew Research Center study of 2022 census data. No industry in the state employs a greater number of unauthorized workers than construction, the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute found. Since 2000, Texas’s population has grown by around 10 million, with many new arrivals chasing the “Texas Miracle”—a fast-growing economy that’s the envy of other states. Construction workers lacking legal status have laid the foundations for this miracle. They erected the work camps housing pipe fitters and roughnecks out in the oil fields. They rebuilt Houston after Hurricane Harvey. And they built thousands of apartment complexes and homes, helping Texas avoid the worst of the affordable-housing shortage that is crippling other states.
(more)

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/border-crisis-texas-solutions/
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Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #642 on: October 20, 2024, 09:02:10 PM »
Walrus, Again I would say the difference between Calif. and the Midwest is obvious by your kinda myopic view of who “the electorate” has confidence in. California will by a huge faction favor Harris as will New York and most every large metropolitan center. So numbers wise Harris will win the vote count but the electoral college is something else. If we are counting humans “the electorate” will vote for Harris, this implies they have confidence in her. If we separate women from men half of “the electorate” will again undoubtably favor Harris.
 In a couple weeks we can fact check my projection against yours. Climate projections are so much harder to bet on due to the timelines involved.

That in all likelihood could happen.  Clinton receive 2% more votes than Trump, but lost by 77 electoral votes.  Biden received 4% more votes and won by 74 EVs.  Hence, 3% appears to be the break even point.  Currently, Harris is polling around 2.5% higher.  The number are against her, although specifics will matter.

The polls are rubbish. It will all come down to enthusiasm, as usual. Who's more excited to vote? Who will turn out? And I think that there's more energy on the democratic side.

There are likely also a lot of silent Republican votes for Harris. People that just had enough of Trump but aren't saying it, out of fear for their friends.

At least I hope so...  :-[

They are not total rubbish.  The last two elections have been off by similar margins.  Unless the pollsters corrected their deficiencies, I expect a similar occurrence this time.

Typically, democrats are the more energetic voters.  But trump was able to generate more energy on the republican side, while Clinton failed to do so on the democratic side.  Biden was able to generate more enthusiasm last time, but he was aided by the pandemic and loosed voting rules.  Neither of these are present this election. 

Additionally, the 2020 census shifted the electoral college towards the Republican Party but a net six votes (based on 2020 presidential results). 

Republicans are less enthusiastic about Trump this time, but Harris has not garnered the same support Biden did four years ago.  Remember, Trump’s victory in 2016 was more a repudiation of Clinton, than approval of him.  This election will likely be decided in a similar manner.  Who wins likely be decided in two states:  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  If Harris loses either, she is in trouble, unless she can flip North Carolina, which has voted for the democratic candidate just once over the past ten elections.
NC and Georgia will be very interesting. A lot of the rural voters have been hit by Helene, so I don't think they're busy with an election now. And that could benefit the Democrats in those 2 states.

We'll know in 16 days if the man with a concept of a penis will win again.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Freegrass

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #643 on: October 21, 2024, 02:34:39 PM »
Another worrying sign for the US. China is beating them on higher education now.

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

LeftyLarry

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #644 on: October 21, 2024, 09:59:49 PM »
I keep reading here how America is , OVER.
Yet, even with higher interest rates and all the other problems  MOSTLY created by the left, America’s growth continues as per this article:
Seems like Technology is an area that even with all the theft by China and America’s other competitors, the U.S. still has a big lead, especially with A.I.

https://apnews.com/article/economy-growth-inflation-gdp-consumers-federal-reserve-6ac0d113be186b0e1e9e2c85ce927280
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SteveMDFP

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #645 on: October 23, 2024, 07:04:17 PM »
I went back to the start of this thread that I opened. Too bad the real start got cut off, but in post 11 I said this:

I hear ya! But don't underestimate the incredible wealth Americannot possesses. The Petro Dollar is still the dominant currency in the world. Although that's changing, and will change more when oil fades away as it's being replaced by alternative energy...

America will collapse because of religious extremism and a cold/warm war with China over global dominance
Everything I said here is happening. The petrodollar is no more, which to be honest happened a lot faster than I could have ever imagined, and religious extremism is destroying America. Christian white nationalist fascists are taking over America. This started many decades ago, and thanks to Fox, mega churches, radio hosts, social media, and more, they are winning.

Quite overblown.  The petrodollar has become irrelevant.  First, the Saudi dollar revenues largely stopped being invested in USD assets because MBS is instead putting the money towards stupid, massive internal mal-investments like Neom.  The long-standing agreement by the Saudis to only accept USD for its exports ended with not a ripple in global demand for USD.  Look up the DXY values; the USD remains historically rather strong.

Next, all the major currencies have become readily fungible.  It thus matters faily little what currency a good is traded in, whatever it is can be readily converted to anything else, at minimal cost.

What matters in the markets is what currency assets are held in.  Here, the choice is determined by risk/reward calculations, just as with individual investors.  The only real exception here is with political risks of nations that might run afoul of US sanctions.  Note that major sanctions tend to be imposed in concert between the US and EU.  Few nations can avoid this risk by holding Euros instead of USD -- something Russia discovered, to its chagrin.  There is no other major currency of choice available.  Gold can be held, but it is of unstable value, with no assurance of return on investment.  It thus carries significant risk.  Similar risk (magnified) is attendant with e.g., Bitcoin.

As Saudi Arabia and China have reduced their exposure to USD, other wealth holders have picked up the slack.  Thus, the USD remains fairly strong.  Not that weakening of the USD would not be a catastrope -- such an event would boost US exports and put downward pressure on inflation.

As for the religious right, the US certainly has more evangelicals than other advanced economies, but the US has been becoming more secular over time, not less.  We're just lagging behind.

The evangelicals wax and wane in their political activism.  In previous decades, the eventually realized that they'd been hoodwinked in the Reagan-Bush years, lending their support with almost nothing to show for it.  They thus retreated from political activism.

With Trump, they finally achieved a major goal -- overturning Roe v. Wade.  However, this is like the dog catching up with the car.  The change is overall rather unpopular with the electorate as a whole.  Though Trump could eke out a win in November, and might take the Senate and possibly retain the House, there certainly won't be a "Red Wave." 

morganism

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #646 on: October 24, 2024, 11:55:35 PM »
 How Trump's billionaires are hijacking affordable housing
Thom Hartmann


America’s morbidly rich billionaires are at it again, this time screwing the average family’s ability to have decent, affordable housing in their never-ending quest for more, more, more. Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, and Denmark have had enough and done something about it: we should, too.

There are a few things that are essential to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” that should never be purely left to the marketplace; these are the most important sectors where government intervention, regulation, and even subsidy are not just appropriate but essential. Housing is at the top of that list.

A few days ago I noted how, since the Reagan Revolution, the cost of housing has exploded in America, relative to working class income.

When my dad bought his home in the 1950s, for example, the median price of a single-family house was around 2.2 times the median American family income. Today the St. Louis Fed says the median house sells for $417,700 while the median American income is $40,480—a ratio of more than 10 to 1 between housing costs and annual income.

In other words, housing is about five times more expensive (relative to income) than it was in the 1950s.

And now we’ve surged past a new tipping point, causing the homelessness that’s plagued America’s cities since George W. Bush’s deregulation-driven housing- and stock-market crash in 2008, exacerbated by Trump’s bungling America’s pandemic response.

And the principal cause of both that crash and today’s crisis of homelessness and housing affordability has one, single, primary cause: billionaires treating housing as an investment commodity.

A new report from Popular Democracy and the Institute for Policy Studies reveals how billionaire investors have become a major driver of the nationwide housing crisis. They summarize in their own words:

    — Billionaire-backed private equity firms worm their way into different segments of the housing market to extract ever-increasing rents and value from multi-family rental, single-family homes, and mobile home park communities.
    — Global billionaires purchase billions in U.S. real estate to diversify their asset holdings, driving the creation of luxury housing that functions as “safety deposit boxes in the sky.” Estimates of hidden wealth are as high as $36 trillion globally, with billions parked in U.S. land and housing markets.
    — Wealthy investors are acquiring property and holding units vacant, so that in many communities the number of vacant units greatly exceeds the number of unhoused people. Nationwide there are 16 million vacant homes: that is, 28 vacant homes for every unhoused person.
    — Billionaire investors are buying up a large segment of the short-term rental market, preventing local residents from living in these homes, in order to cash in on tourism. These are not small owners with one unit, but corporate owners with multiple properties.
    — Billionaire investors and corporate landlords are targeting communities of color and low-income residents, in particular, with rent increases, high rates of eviction, and unhealthy living conditions. What’s more, billionaire-owned private equity firms are investing in subsidized housing, enjoying tax breaks and public benefits, while raising rents and evicting low-income tenants from housing they are only required to keep affordable, temporarily. (Emphasis theirs.)

It seems that everywhere you look in America you see the tragedy of the homelessness these billionaires are causing. Rarely, though, do you hear about the role of Wall Street and its billionaires in causing it.

The math, however, is irrefutable.

Thirty-two percent is the magic threshold, according to research funded by the real estate listing company Zillow. When neighborhoods hit rent rates in excess of 32 percent of neighborhood income, homelessness explodes. And we’re seeing it play out right in front of us in cities across America because a handful of Wall Street billionaires are making a killing.

As the Zillow study notes:

    “Across the country, the rent burden already exceeds the 32 percent [of median income] threshold in 100 of the 386 markets included in this analysis….”

And wherever housing prices become more than three times annual income, homelessness stalks like the grim reaper. That Zillow-funded study laid it out:

    “This research demonstrates that the homeless population climbs faster when rent affordability — the share of income people spend on rent — crosses certain thresholds. In many areas beyond those thresholds, even modest rent increases can push thousands more Americans into homelessness.”

This trend is massive.

As noted in a Wall Street Journal article titled “Meet Your New Landlord: Wall Street,” in just one suburb (Spring Hill) of Nashville:

    “In all of Spring Hill, four firms … own nearly 700 houses … [which] amounts to about 5% of all the houses in town.”

This is the tiniest tip of the iceberg.

    “On the first Tuesday of each month,” notes the Journal article about a similar phenomenon in Atlanta, investors “toted duffels stuffed with millions of dollars in cashier’s checks made out in various denominations so they wouldn’t have to interrupt their buying spree with trips to the bank…”

The same thing is happening in cities and suburbs all across America; agents for the billionaire investor goliaths use fine-tuned computer algorithms to sniff out houses they can turn into rental properties, making over-market and unbeatable cash bids often within minutes of a house hitting the market.

After stripping neighborhoods of homes young families can afford to buy, billionaires then begin raising rents to extract as much cash as they can from local working class communities.

In the Nashville suburb of Spring Hill, the vice-mayor, Bruce Hull, told the Journal you used to be able to rent “a three bedroom, two bath house for $1,000 a month.” Today, the Journal notes:

    “The average rent for 148 single-family homes in Spring Hill owned by the big four [Wall Street billionaire investor] landlords was about $1,773 a month…”

As the Bank of International Settlements summarized in a 2014 retrospective study of the years since the Reagan/Gingrich changes in banking and finance:

    “We describe a Pareto frontier along which different levels of risk-taking map into different levels of welfare for the two parties, pitting Main Street against Wall Street. … We also show that financial innovation, asymmetric compensation schemes, concentration in the banking system, and bailout expectations enable or encourage greater risk-taking and allocate greater surplus to Wall Street at the expense of Main Street.”

It’s a fancy way of saying that billionaire-owned big banks and hedge funds have made trillions on housing while you and your community are becoming destitute.

Ryan Dezember, in his book Underwater: How Our American Dream of Homeownership Became a Nightmare, describes the story of a family trying to buy a home in Phoenix. Every time they entered a bid, they were outbid instantly, the price rising over and over, until finally the family’s father threw in the towel.

    “Jacobs was bewildered,” writes Dezember. “Who was this aggressive bidder?”

Turns out it was Blackstone Group, now the world’s largest real estate investor run by a major Trump supporter. At the time they were buying $150 million worth of American houses every week, trying to spend over $10 billion. And that’s just a drop in the overall bucket.

As that new study from Popular Democracy and the Institute for Policy Studies found:

    “[Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman’s] Blackstone is the largest corporate landlord in the world, with a vast and diversified real estate portfolio. It owns more than 300,000 residential units across the U.S., has $1 trillion in global assets, and nearly doubled its profits in 2021.
    “Blackstone owns 149,000 multi-family apartment units; 63,000 single-family homes; 70 mobile home parks with 13,000 lots through their subsidiary Treehouse Communities; and student housing, through American Campus Communities (144,300 beds in 205 properties as of 2022). Blackstone recently acquired 95,000 units of subsidized housing.”

In 2018, corporations and the billionaires that own or run them bought 1 out of every 10 homes sold in America, according to Dezember, noting that:

    “Between 2006 and 2016, when the homeownership rate fell to its lowest level in fifty years, the number of renters grew by about a quarter.”

And it’s gotten worse every year since then.

This all really took off around a decade ago following the Bush Crash, when Morgan Stanley published a 2011 report titled “The Rentership Society,” arguing that snapping up houses and renting them back to people who otherwise would have wanted to buy them could be the newest and hottest investment opportunity for Wall Street’s billionaires and their funds.

Turns out, Morgan Stanley was right. Warren Buffett, KKR, and The Carlyle Group have all jumped into residential real estate, along with hundreds of smaller investment groups, and the National Home Rental Council has emerged as the industry’s premiere lobbying group, working to block rent control legislation and other efforts to control the industry.

As John Husing, the owner of Economics and Politics Inc., told The Tennessean newspaper:

    “What you have are neighborhoods that are essentially unregulated apartment houses. It could be disastrous for the city.”

As Zillow found:

    “The areas that are most vulnerable to rising rents, unaffordability, and poverty hold 15 percent of the U.S. population — and 47 percent of people experiencing homelessness.”

The loss of affordable homes also locks otherwise middle class families out of the traditional way wealth is accumulated — through home ownership: over 61% of all American middle-income family wealth is their home’s equity.

And as families are priced out of ownership and forced to rent, they become more vulnerable to homelessness.

Housing is one of the primary essentials of life. Nobody in America should be without it, and for society to work, housing costs must track incomes in a way that makes housing both available and affordable.

Singapore, Denmark, New Zealand, and parts of Canada have all put limits on billionaire, corporate, and foreign investment in housing, recognizing families’ residences as essential to life rather than purely a commodity. Multiple other countries are having that debate or moving to take similar actions as you read these words.

America should, too.

https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/affordable-housing/
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greylib

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #647 on: October 25, 2024, 12:53:55 AM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.

If you want to win a bet, put it on Trump.
As for the consequences of Trump winning, well, my guess is it wont be good but at least you win the bet.
Betting odds are easy to rig - all it takes is money. Musk is putting a LOT of money towards a win for Trump. He could swing the odds with less than a million - pocket change for him. And then you get a lot of people saying "look at the gambling odds - Trump's a shoe-in!"
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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #648 on: October 25, 2024, 04:03:08 AM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.

If you want to win a bet, put it on Trump.
As for the consequences of Trump winning, well, my guess is it wont be good but at least you win the bet.
Betting odds are easy to rig - all it takes is money. Musk is putting a LOT of money towards a win for Trump. He could swing the odds with less than a million - pocket change for him. And then you get a lot of people saying "look at the gambling odds - Trump's a shoe-in!"

Sure, but would someone truly just throw money on a losing just to move the odds?  If he really wanted a particular candidate to win, that money would be better placed donated to their campaign.  Betting is a better indicator of who they think will win, rather than who they want to win.

greylib

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Re: The Collapse Of America
« Reply #649 on: October 25, 2024, 04:28:13 AM »
Anyway, this is a moot discussion because the good money is on Trump to win.
Some people might say that the bad money is on Trump to win, and these days there is a lot more bad money floating around than good.

If you want to win a bet, put it on Trump.
As for the consequences of Trump winning, well, my guess is it wont be good but at least you win the bet.
Betting odds are easy to rig - all it takes is money. Musk is putting a LOT of money towards a win for Trump. He could swing the odds with less than a million - pocket change for him. And then you get a lot of people saying "look at the gambling odds - Trump's a shoe-in!"

Sure, but would someone truly just throw money on a losing just to move the odds?  If he really wanted a particular candidate to win, that money would be better placed donated to their campaign.  Betting is a better indicator of who they think will win, rather than who they want to win.
It's called "propaganda". I've seen a lot of people quoting those odds as proof that a majority of people are expecting Trump to win. They aren't. They're simply proof that a lot of money has been placed on Trump. I don't bet on dogs, horses or politicians, because I don't know what's going on behind the scenes.
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