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Sigmetnow

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Hurricane Season 2021
« on: January 24, 2021, 09:01:10 PM »
New year, new storms.

Mark Sudduth
Off-Season Discussion for January 18, 2021
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=acsKFq6c_-Y&feature=youtu.be

From:
HurricaneTrack.com- Hurricane News, Information and Live Field Coverage of Landfalls
http://hurricanetrack.com/
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2021, 11:04:23 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2021, 09:50:33 PM »
Increasing Hurricane Intensity Around Bermuda Linked to Rising Ocean Temperatures
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-hurricane-intensity-bermuda-linked-ocean.html

New research shows that hurricane maximum wind speeds in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda have more than doubled on average over the last 60 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region.

Between 1955 and 2019 mean hurricane intensity near Bermuda, measured by the maximum wind speed, increased from 35 to 73mph - equivalent to over 6mph per decade.  At the same time sea surface and sub surface temperatures in the region increase by upto 1.1°C, providing the additional energy for hurricanes to intensify.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters,  also develops a predictor for the intensity of hurricanes moving through the Bermuda area using the average upper ocean temperature in the top 50m layer.

Mark Guishard, co-author and Director of the Bermuda Weather Service said "the research demonstrates the greater relevance of upper ocean heat versus sea surface temperatures alone in the prediction of hurricane intensity. Preliminary testing with the recent passage of Hurricane Paulette shows promising results that this technique could be further developed into an additional operational tool for forecasters locally."

These findings are the result of a statistical analysis on hurricane paths within 100km of Bermuda, between 1955 and 2019. The research used surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations from the Bermuda Atlantic Times Series (BATS) Hydrostation S program, managed by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.

Samantha Hallam et al, Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955- 2019, Environmental Research Letters (2021)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe493
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2021, 06:04:40 AM »
Watch 2020’s Hurricane Season Unfold In a Mesmerizing Four-Minute Timelapse
https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/26/22302913/2020-hurricane-season-storms-nasa-timelapse-noaa

This week, NASA released a grim four-minute timelapse of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, a mesmerizing display of last year’s record-breaking string of tropical commotion.



2020’s season “smashed records with an unprecedented 30 named storms, marking the fifth year in a row with above-average hurricane activity,” NASA said in a blog accompanying the video.

The agency’s Scientific Visualization Studio used a complex algorithm to process and merge hordes of data from an array of weather satellites in orbit, combining it with estimates and observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center.

The product is a fascinating four-minute and 26-second look at last year’s hurricane activity, unfolding in a colorful display of wispy cyclone formations tumbling across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

... “The bar has been raised,” Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Marine and Atmospheric Science school, tweeted last week. “When we mention the average number of named storms, hurricanes, & major hurricanes, we’re typically referring to a recent 30-year ‘climate normal’. We’ve been using 1981-2010, but now we have 1991-2020, and the counts have increased by 12-19%.”

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was the fifth costliest on record, causing roughly $60 billion in economic damage, according to a report from AccuWeather. The most expensive season on record was in 2017, hitting $306.2 billion in costs.

“Climate normals are updated each decade to keep up with a changing climate,” McNoldy said. “What was normal 50 years ago isn’t normal now.”

Hurricane season, June 1st, 2021, is less than 100 days away.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2021, 01:51:08 AM »
Quote
New climate ‘normal’ for Atlantic hurricanes shows more frequent and intense storms
By Matthew Cappucci and Andrew Freedman
March 3, 2021 at 11:38 a.m. CST

During the most recent 30-year period, which spans 1991 to 2020, there has been an uptick in the number of named storms and an increase in the frequency of major hurricanes of category 3 intensity or greater in the Atlantic.
...
That comes as no surprise amid a spate of extreme hurricane activity that has featured seven Category 5 storms swirling across Atlantic waters in just the past five years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/03/hurricanes-atlantic-climate-normal/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2021, 08:08:48 PM »
Goodbye Greek names for tropical cyclones! Hello supplemental name lists, via ⁦‪@WMO‬⁩ press release:  
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/supplemental-list-of-tropical-cyclone-names-raiv
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2021, 02:56:14 PM »
Precise Prediction of Hurricane Power vs. Ocean Temperature
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-precise-hurricane-power-ocean-temperature.html

Researchers have been studying the relation between water temperature and hurricane frequency for years now. There have been suggestions that as temperature increases, storms become more powerful.

Now, Tandon researcher Edward Wolf has released new research that confirms both facts. In studying recent hurricane data, Wolf was able to pinpoint the ocean temperature where it becomes possible for hurricanes to form. That temperature is approximately 26.5 degrees Celsius. Much like how water boils at 100 degrees Celsius (and not a degree lower), weather patterns cannot phase change into a hurricane until this water temperature is met.

Wolf also developed a simple algorithm that can predict the severity of a storm by measuring the temperature of the water beneath it. As the temperature goes up, the severity of the storm increases in a consistent and measurable manner. Not only does this prove that water temperature and storm strength are directly linked, it could be a tool to efficiently gauge the strength of a storm—an early warning system that could help communities in its path prepare.

Wolf's research also provides one surprising detail: the algorithm describing how storm severity increases in proportion to ocean temperatures finds a direct analog in ferromagnetism—the strength of an iron magnet's field: the temperature-defined phase change of ferromagnetism follows the same critical exponent formula T-Tc ⅓ determining shift to magnetism at specific temperatures.

Researchers are now able to use the vast scientific literature on ferromagnetism in order to study hurricane formation, which by its nature has less raw data to work with. Wolf was able to use previous iron studies to fine tune his algorithm, producing even finer data.

Precise Prediction of Hurricane Power vs Ocean Temperature, International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Vol. 5, No. 1, 2021, pp. 1-5.
http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210501.11
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2021, 06:47:33 PM »
U.S.
Quote
National Weather Service
@NWS 3/22/21, 1:21 PM

.@NOAA’s flagship weather model is undergoing a major #upgrade today to improve weather forecasts for hurricanes, snowfall, and heavy rain.
...
The upgraded GFS model now has double the vertical resolution and for the first time is coupled with a global wave model to extend wave forecasts out from 10 to 16 days. We put more horsepower in the #GFS engine.

Read more at http://noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-flagship-us-global-weather-model 
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1374048646992396288
⬇️ Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2021, 08:46:04 PM »
Brad Panovich on Twitter:  Dr. Phil Klotzbach has released his first installment of the 2021 Hurricane Season outlook for the Atlantic basin. He is expecting another above-average season for the Atlantic. The full write-up is in the link:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2021, 11:50:16 AM »
Is this the "tropical cyclone" thread too?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/10/western-australia-cyclones-evacuations-ordered-as-odette-and-seroja-loom

Quote
Residents of Geraldton in Western Australia’s mid-west have been warned to brace for destructive cyclonic winds of a kind not seen in the area for decades.

Two cyclones were bearing down on the state’s mid-west and north-west coast on Saturday afternoon.

The first, tropical Cyclone Odette, was downgraded from cyclone strength on Saturday morning but was still expected to bring strong winds to the Exmouth region and parts of the Gascoyne coast. Cyclones are more common in the far north-west and buildings are designed to withstand such events.

But authorities say Odette is likely be absorbed by the second cyclone, Cyclone Seroja, which is causing authorities the most concern.

It was expected to make landfall much further south on Sunday or early Monday, between Carnarvon and Jurien Bay, which sit to the north and south of Geraldton respectively.

Geraldton, with a population of 37,648, is not built to withstand cyclones and residents are not used to dealing with such extreme weather events, authorities said.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2021, 02:32:47 PM »
Quote
Is this the "tropical cyclone" thread too?

Yes: Typhoons, Cyclones, and Hurricanes ...

--------------------------------------------------

A Spectacular Fujiwhara Effect Happens With Merging Tropical Cyclones Seroja and Odette, Both Head for a Rare and Damaging Impact to Australia This Weekend
https://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odette-australia-landfall-mk/



We don’t see this very often, but the tropical region is facing two merging cyclones this week. A so-called Fujiwhara effect of tropical cyclone Seroja and Odette revealed a spectacular satellite view. Seroja will be a dominant feature of both and turns towards western Australia with an extremely dangerous landfall with severe winds and flooding on Sunday.

The Fujiwhara effect can make forecasting track and intensity even more challenging, as a number of weather scenarios can occur with the general track and also intensity. One system typically becoming more dominant and overtakes the weaker one.

On rare occasions, the two systems can combine into one larger and intense system (as is this case), or they destroy each other. Tropical Cyclone Seroja reaches a Category 3 intensity this weekend, while the tropical low is expected to be of much weaker intensity.



... Modeled wind swath suggests that the approach of tropical cyclone Seroja will include severe winds, potentially becoming violent prior to the landfall of the system on Sunday. Wind gusts will be dangerous along the coast, possibly with gusts 140-170 km/h at the landfall.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=aus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021041006&fh=6
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2021, 01:26:21 PM »
The latest on Seroja from the BoM:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.html

Quote
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 27.4 degrees South 113.4 degrees East, estimated to be 85 kilometres west northwest of Kalbarri and 195 kilometres northwest of Geraldton.

Movement: southeast at 48 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Seroja lies close to the WA coast north of Kalbarri. It is moving rapidly towards the southeast, and is likely to cross the coast between Kalbarri and Geraldton this evening. Impacts are occurring about the coast between Carnarvon and Geraldton, and conditions will deteriorate further during this evening.

Seroja has maintained its intensity during the past few hours and a category 3 coastal impact is now more likely.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2021, 12:54:16 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2021, 08:09:01 PM »

grixm

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2021, 11:55:28 PM »
Surigae is 165 kn now according to JTWC. 120knot 120-minutes winds / 895 hPa according to JMA.

The most powerful storm in April ever, globally.

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2021, 12:34:47 AM »
Surigae is 165 kn now according to JTWC. 120knot 120-minutes winds / 895 hPa according to JMA.

The most powerful storm in April ever, globally.
And the fifth most powerful (reliably measured) storm ever recorded in any month. All the top 5 are from the past decade.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2021, 12:45:37 AM »
888 hPa at 18Z according to Levi Cowan.

Dunno where he gets his numbers from.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2021, 03:59:26 PM »


Chart showing satellite-based intensity estimates of Super Typhoon Surigae, including the sharp jump during the past 24 hours. Chart: University of Wisconsin/CIMSS

The storm jumped from a 90-mph Category 1 storm Friday to a 180-mph Category 5 super typhoon 24 hours later, a staggering rate of intensification that is more than double the criteria for rapid intensification. The storm further intensified to an estimated maximum sustained winds of 190 mph by Saturday evening.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

J Cartmill

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2021, 04:19:53 PM »

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2021, 12:05:43 PM »
Surigae from Worldview, 1 km per pixel. This new eye is impressive.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2021, 10:09:21 PM »
Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Activity Again Expected In 2021
https://phys.org/news/2021-04-above-average-atlantic-hurricane.html

The year 2020 saw the most active hurricane season on record and marked the fifth consecutive year for above-average activity. A University of Arizona-led hurricane forecasting team predicts another year of above-average hurricane activity over the Atlantic Ocean in 2021.

The team predicts 18 named storms, including eight hurricanes, throughout the 2021 North Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. In comparison, the 30-year average is 13 named storms and seven hurricanes annually.

Four storms are expected to produce major hurricanes, which are defined as category 3, 4 or 5.

If the predictions are realized, 2021 will be the sixth-consecutive year for above-average activity.

"We need to ask ourselves if this is part of the natural variability of the system, or if we are already seeing impacts of global warming," ... "If this is part of the natural variability, then after some overactive seasons, we'd expect activity to quiet down, but every year is kind of crazy in the past few years."

While this season is expected to bring above-average activity, it isn't expected to be as dramatic as last year, partly due to average climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean driven by sea surface temperatures.

When eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are below average—a weather phenomenon known as La Niña—it drives up easterly wind speeds over the Atlantic that exacerbate hurricanes. When Pacific sea surface temperatures are above average—a weather pattern referred to as El Niño—it weakens easterly winds and weakens hurricane activity over the Atlantic.

--------------------------------------------------------

Trump Delayed $20bn In Aid to Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria, Report Finds
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-trump-delayed-aid

The Trump administration delayed more than $20bn in hurricane relief aid for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, according to a report by the housing department’s office of the inspector General.

The efforts to deliver recovery funding to the island were “unnecessarily delayed by bureaucratic obstacles”, according to the 46-page report. The hurricane, which hit the island in 2017, killed thousands of people and left thousands more without electricity or water for months.

... The investigators were unable to determine why the extra layer of review was required due to “denials of access and refusals to cooperate”, according to the report.

https://www.hudoig.gov/sites/default/files/2021-04/HUD%20OIG%20Final%20Report_2019SU008945I.pdf
« Last Edit: April 23, 2021, 01:58:46 AM by vox_mundi »
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2021, 11:41:24 PM »
Is it part of the natural variability?  That is a good question, but not easily answered.  The following graph shows the Atlantic hurricane seasons back to 1950.  There has definitely been an increase since the lean decades of the 70s and 80s, but recent activity seems to be close to the activity of the 50s and 60s. 

Here are the average values by decade:

1950s:  109.6
1960s:  116.4
1970s:    63.0
1980s:    77.9
1990s:  109.0
2000s:  130.2
2010s:  122.1

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2021, 01:02:36 PM »
Earth Day Connections: NASA Study Predicts Less Saharan Dust in Future Winds

NASA’s Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Program, and Radiation Sciences Program, the scientists used their new understanding of these relationships to forecast a more substantial reduction in dust activity than previous studies had predicted based on anticipated climate warming.

Sea surface temperatures directly impact wind speeds, so when the northern Atlantic warms relative to the south Atlantic, the trade winds that blow the dust from east to west become weaker. As a result, the slower winds pick up and transport less dust from the Sahara.

In addition to carrying less dust, the weakened winds also allow the band of steady rain that traverses the tropics to drift north over more of the desert, which dampens the dust and keeps it from getting swept away. As it drifts north, it makes more of the Sahara wetter.  Damp sand and weaker winds will shrink the Saharan air layer.  Dry air with the dust can inhibit tropical disturbances from developing into hurricanes.

Residents in the Caribbean could also see some benefits as less dust means better air quality. Breathing in dust is particularly hazardous for children, the elderly, and those with respiratory conditions such as asthma.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2021/nasa-study-predicts-less-saharan-dust-in-future-winds

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2021, 09:56:05 PM »
5/9/21, 3:30 PM
#Andres has become the earliest named storm on record in the Eastern Pacific.
 https://twitter.com/stormteam4ny/status/1391475806476644362
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2021, 07:46:13 PM »
Capital Weather Gang
Quote
Something we're watching: Likely development of major tropical cyclone in Indian Ocean. It may graze Mumbai but has a better chance to have serious impacts next week near the India-Pakistan border. Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, needs to watch this.

wapo.st/2R8M4Zm 
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1392884011240988679
5/13/21, 12:46 PM
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2021, 11:19:07 AM »
^^ Japan weather just forecast that this is likely to be the worst storm to hit the sub-continent this century ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 .. you gotta laugh .. :)

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #26 on: May 14, 2021, 02:55:38 PM »
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

& this is what JTWC say..
Quote
[size=pt]REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140231Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS).

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES.


TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 155NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE.

DUE TO THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET.[/size]
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #27 on: May 14, 2021, 03:23:17 PM »
It is 'good news' that this storm headed towards the India-Pakistan boarder is predicted to weaken some before landfall - 85 knots (155 km/hr) instead of 110 kts. (200 km/hr) at its predicted peak.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #28 on: May 14, 2021, 03:46:45 PM »
^^ Japan weather just forecast that this is likely to be the worst storm to hit the sub-continent this century ..

Really?  How did they arrive at that?  None of the other forecasters have it gaining that much strength.  Even at its most intense forecast (200 km/hr), that is significantly less that several storms over the past two decades, which hit 240 km/hr, and as Tor posted, it is expected to weaken significantly by landfall.  Perhaps they meant to hit the subcontinent from the Arabian side.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2021, 05:15:48 PM »
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

India / Pakistan cyclone strength at landfall and track unchanged
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2021, 10:02:59 PM »
Quote
cyclone strength at landfall ... unchanged
I read the chart differently:  It was 85 kts just before landfall; now it's 85 kts a little way inland.  I think that's a large difference.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #31 on: May 17, 2021, 05:30:20 PM »
today's forecast from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #32 on: May 17, 2021, 05:34:45 PM »
Jeff Masters writes on his Eye on the Storm blog

Why are there so many Atlantic named storms? Five possible explanations
Quote
The increase in Atlantic named storms could be driven by some or all at least five factors, roughly in order of confidence, and each discussed in more depth [at the link]:

1) A reduction in small sulfur-containing particles over the Atlantic as a result of stronger air pollution regulations in the U.S. since the early 1970s,  allowing more sunlight to reach the surface and heat the oceans;

2) A lack of major volcanic eruptions in recent decades, allowing sea surface temperatures, SSTs, to rebound from the cooling effects of the eruptions of El Chichón in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991;

3) Improved technology that has allowed the identification of weak, short-lived tropical cyclones that would have escaped detection in previous years;

4) Human-caused global warming, which has increased SSTs in the Atlantic, and caused atmospheric circulation changes beneficial to tropical cyclone formation; and

5) Natural variability driven by decades-long cycles.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #33 on: May 17, 2021, 07:19:02 PM »
Cyclone Tauktae close enough to land to be a real problem already

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57139989
Cyclone Tauktae makes landfall in Covid-battered India


Strong winds and heavy seas were battering the city of Mumbai, in Maharashtra state
Quote

A cyclone, classified as "extremely severe", has made landfall in India's western state of Gujarat with wind speeds of up to 160km/h (100mph).

Cyclone Tauktae had roared up India's western coast, with at least 12 people killed and thousands evacuated.

Efforts are under way to rescue more than 400 people stranded off the coast in two commercial barges.

The cyclone comes amid a second Covid-19 wave that has overwhelmed India's healthcare system.

India's meteorological department announced on Monday evening that the "extremely severe cyclonic storm" had begun to make landfall in Gujarat.

Winds were gusting up to 185km/h, the weather bureau added, and storm surges of up to 4m (13ft) high were possible in some coastal districts.

Tauktae is expected to be the strongest cyclone to strike the region since 1998 and both Gujarat and its neighbouring state, Maharashtra, are on high alert.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #34 on: May 18, 2021, 03:26:02 PM »
Not good at all! (I know, this is 'old news', but the Navy's chart wasn't available yesterday...)

As was predicted a few days ago:
CNN news: 
Quote
India was slammed on Monday by the strongest storm on record to reach its west coast, ...
It strengthened slightly as it hit the western state with maximum sustained winds of 205 kilometers per hour (125 mph), according to the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #35 on: May 18, 2021, 03:49:08 PM »
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is fifth-strongest cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea,
according to Jeff Masters on his blog.  Lots of info in the post.

Watch a cell tower collapse in the hurricane force winds:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1394341749338742784
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #36 on: May 20, 2021, 01:37:16 PM »
New India Cyclone Warning as Death Toll Rises
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php

https://phys.org/news/2021-05-india-cyclone-death-toll.html

A major new storm was brewing in the Bay of Bengal off India's east coast on Thursday, forecasters warned just days after the biggest cyclone to hit the west of the country in decades left at least 110 people confirmed dead.

In its latest warning, the Indian Meteorological Department said that a cyclonic storm was on course to hit the eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha on around May 26.



https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #37 on: May 21, 2021, 01:24:41 AM »
Quote
Ready. Set............
We might have our first named tropical system of the season very soon; prior to the official start date of June 1.
Looks like another active season!
https://twitter.com/craigallenwx/status/1395490261023793152
5/20/21, 5:22 PM

The Greek letter names for Atlantic storms that occur after the primary list is used up didn’t work well, and too many have been retired.  If there are more than 21 named storms this season, subsequent storms will take names from an auxiliary list of names approved by the WMO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_naming
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #38 on: May 21, 2021, 08:25:26 PM »
Quote
Jake Carstens:
Re-posted from 2020, but given increasing odds for the 7th straight early start to Atlantic Hurricane Season, this seems appropriate to bring back:
https://twitter.com/jakecarstens/status/1395166569584644096
5/19/21, 7:56 PM
30-second video at the link. :o ;D

< Still top 10 weather memes of all time
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #39 on: May 22, 2021, 02:13:23 PM »
Ana forms in the Atlantic, becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents



Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday morning, becoming the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This now marks the seventh year in a row in which at least one named storm has formed prior to the start of Atlantic hurricane season which officially begins June 1.

... Ana is also unique because the storm originated in an area of the Atlantic that typically does not see tropical cyclones form in the month of May. Typically, storms during this month form over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, in the western Caribbean Sea, or near the Southeast coast of the US.

Ana currently has sustained winds of 45 mph and is located about 200 miles to the northeast of Bermuda. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bermuda and tropical storm conditions are possible today for the island.

The storm is forecast to remain in the vicinity of Bermuda today prior to turning to the northeast on Sunday. Little change in strength is forecast today, but a gradual weakening is expected tonight and Sunday. Ana is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #40 on: May 23, 2021, 08:36:38 PM »
Another cyclone looms for India, week after deadly storm
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php

Moving northwards in the Bay of Bengal, the depression is set to form a cyclone—to be dubbed Yaas—before intensifying and hitting the eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha on Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department said.

The storm could pack winds of up to 165 kilometres (100 miles) per hour, hitting occasional highs of up to 185kph by mid-Wednesday as a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm", the third-worst category, the department said.

It also warned of storm surges of up to four metres (13 feet) high in coastal areas.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=india&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021052312&fh=6
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #41 on: June 06, 2021, 09:24:06 PM »
Quote
Eric Holthaus
This heartbreaking image is from the recent arrival of Cyclone Yaas in India.
Those who did the least to create the climate emergency are bearing the brunt of the impacts….

Megnaa Mehtta
A heart-wrenching image of ppl putting their bodies on the line, as the first line of defence, to protect the embankment in K-plot.
⁦‪@AnnuJal‬⁩ ⁦‪@GhoshAmitav‬⁩ ⁦‪@calynndowler‬⁩ ⁦‪@silviapergetti‬⁩⁦‪@MaliniSur‬⁩ ⁦‪@adityoghosh‬⁩ ⁦‪@itihaashtag‬⁩
⁦‪@aidboston‬⁩ has been working with the community since Aila
5/26/21
https://twitter.com/mmehtta/status/1397556979594375169
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #42 on: June 12, 2021, 07:24:33 PM »
NWS Climate Prediction Center
Quote
High confidence exists for a tropical cyclone to form over the western Gulf of Mexico between June 16th and 22nd.

  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

6/11/21, 2:54 PM. https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1403425495979495425
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #43 on: June 15, 2021, 12:27:59 AM »
Quote
We now have our second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year - TC genesis along frontal boundaries off the East Coast near the warm Gulf Stream aren't uncommon. Here's a radar loop of the quick organization of the precursor to #TD2 from last night:
6/14/21, 2:24 PM. https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1404505098135293953
Radar GIF at the link.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #44 on: June 15, 2021, 03:07:19 PM »
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
The Atlantic's TD2 is now "Bill". edit: now gone

The 'disturbance' in the Gulf of Mexico is gaining steam and has a 70% - edit: now 80% - - edit: now 90% - chance of tropical development over 5 days, claims NOAA.



Also, Tropical Depression Carlos is moving westward in the east-central Pacific.  (It was a tropical storm for about a day.)- edit: now post-tropical -

The 'disturbance' off the west coast of Mexico has a 40% - edit: now 60% - chance of tropical development over 5 days.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2021, 06:19:55 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #45 on: June 17, 2021, 08:08:39 PM »
Edit - Now 90% in 2 days!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Quote
Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little better organized today.  This system is expected to move generally northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.

A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM CDT (2100 UTC).  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #46 on: June 18, 2021, 07:03:26 PM »
NWS Eastern Region
⁦‪Potential Tropical Cyclone #3 is located 240 mi S of Morgan City LA moving to the NNE at 14 mph. Max winds are 35 mph and PTC #3 is expected to become a Tropical Storm later today. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected across much of the Southeast through the weekend.
6/18/21, 11:37 AM.  https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/1405912466740101125

NWS Houston, Texas:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is likely to become Tropical Storm Claudette today.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #47 on: June 18, 2021, 09:52:41 PM »
HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #48 on: June 20, 2021, 05:03:28 PM »
June 19
Quote
NWS New Orleans
Here is the rainfall from 7am Friday through 7am this morning. Widespread 8 to 10 inches [254 mm] across portions of the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi Coast with pockets of 10+ near Slidell. A lot of rain, a majority of which fell overnight last night. #mswx #lawx
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/1406263403186884616
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #49 on: June 21, 2021, 03:11:43 PM »
It's quite remarkable that Tropical Depression Claudette strengthened back to a Tropical Storm while over North Carolina (now exiting the NC-Virginia border coast).  Strengthening over land happens occasionally, for sure, but it is rare. This particular strengthening was predicted.

[I received about 150 mm of rain associated with Claudette while the forecast was for around 380 mm.  (West of us was to get much more, east of us to get much less.)  Tallahassee airport records show we are 580 mm short for the month (45%) and 1510 mm short for the calendar year (23%).  Local news media talks about the fire danger in the forest areas decimated by 2018's Hurricane Michael just to our west.]
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