Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2021  (Read 606 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18854
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Hurricane Season 2021
« on: January 24, 2021, 09:01:10 PM »
New year, new storms.

Mark Sudduth
Off-Season Discussion for January 18, 2021
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=acsKFq6c_-Y&feature=youtu.be

From:
HurricaneTrack.com- Hurricane News, Information and Live Field Coverage of Landfalls
http://hurricanetrack.com/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 910
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2021, 11:04:23 PM »

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4962
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2597
  • Likes Given: 384
Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2021, 09:50:33 PM »
Increasing Hurricane Intensity Around Bermuda Linked to Rising Ocean Temperatures
https://phys.org/news/2021-02-hurricane-intensity-bermuda-linked-ocean.html

New research shows that hurricane maximum wind speeds in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda have more than doubled on average over the last 60 years due to rising ocean temperatures in the region.

Between 1955 and 2019 mean hurricane intensity near Bermuda, measured by the maximum wind speed, increased from 35 to 73mph - equivalent to over 6mph per decade.  At the same time sea surface and sub surface temperatures in the region increase by upto 1.1°C, providing the additional energy for hurricanes to intensify.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters,  also develops a predictor for the intensity of hurricanes moving through the Bermuda area using the average upper ocean temperature in the top 50m layer.

Mark Guishard, co-author and Director of the Bermuda Weather Service said "the research demonstrates the greater relevance of upper ocean heat versus sea surface temperatures alone in the prediction of hurricane intensity. Preliminary testing with the recent passage of Hurricane Paulette shows promising results that this technique could be further developed into an additional operational tool for forecasters locally."

These findings are the result of a statistical analysis on hurricane paths within 100km of Bermuda, between 1955 and 2019. The research used surface and subsurface ocean temperature observations from the Bermuda Atlantic Times Series (BATS) Hydrostation S program, managed by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.

Samantha Hallam et al, Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955- 2019, Environmental Research Letters (2021)
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe493
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4962
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2597
  • Likes Given: 384
Re: Hurricane Season 2021
« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2021, 06:04:40 AM »
Watch 2020’s Hurricane Season Unfold In a Mesmerizing Four-Minute Timelapse
https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/26/22302913/2020-hurricane-season-storms-nasa-timelapse-noaa

This week, NASA released a grim four-minute timelapse of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, a mesmerizing display of last year’s record-breaking string of tropical commotion.



2020’s season “smashed records with an unprecedented 30 named storms, marking the fifth year in a row with above-average hurricane activity,” NASA said in a blog accompanying the video.

The agency’s Scientific Visualization Studio used a complex algorithm to process and merge hordes of data from an array of weather satellites in orbit, combining it with estimates and observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center.

The product is a fascinating four-minute and 26-second look at last year’s hurricane activity, unfolding in a colorful display of wispy cyclone formations tumbling across the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

... “The bar has been raised,” Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Marine and Atmospheric Science school, tweeted last week. “When we mention the average number of named storms, hurricanes, & major hurricanes, we’re typically referring to a recent 30-year ‘climate normal’. We’ve been using 1981-2010, but now we have 1991-2020, and the counts have increased by 12-19%.”

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was the fifth costliest on record, causing roughly $60 billion in economic damage, according to a report from AccuWeather. The most expensive season on record was in 2017, hitting $306.2 billion in costs.

“Climate normals are updated each decade to keep up with a changing climate,” McNoldy said. “What was normal 50 years ago isn’t normal now.”

Hurricane season, June 1st, 2021, is less than 100 days away.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late