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Simon

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Global ice trends
« on: January 25, 2021, 06:24:38 PM »
Unable to find a sub forum for global ice, so I will put this very important review paper here. Moderators may like to move it elsewhere

https://www.the-cryosphere.net/about/news_and_press/2021-01-25_review-article-earths-ice-imbalance.html


Slater, T., Lawrence, I. R., Otosaka, I. N., Shepherd, A., Gourmelen, N., Jakob, L., Tepes, P., Gilbert, L., and Nienow, P.: Review article: Earth's ice imbalance, The Cryosphere, 15, 233–246, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-233-2021, 2021
« Last Edit: January 27, 2021, 04:01:33 AM by oren »

kassy

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Re: Accelerating ice loss
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2021, 06:26:41 PM »
I think we should rename this Global ice trends and collect those papers here for an overview.

They get posted. This had also been posted in the SLR thread where it will be buried in other subjects soon. It is also in What is new in the Arctic.

In this thread we could collect the links to such reports.

This one is new in methodology but there is at least one other long running series we could add.
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oren

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2021, 04:01:47 AM »
Changed subject as requested.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2021, 01:25:08 PM »
Hot from the press here are some graphs from the GRACE / GRACE-FO satellite series on the Greenland (GIS) and Antarctic (AIS) Ice sheets. Data is to mid-December.

They come from the JPL's PO.DACC system @
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

You have to register with PO.DACC system but that is no problem.

As usual - click to enlarge images

« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 01:41:43 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2021, 01:51:20 PM »
Jan 2021 data from the JPL @
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI
(you have to register to det the data.)

Large Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss exceeds Greenland Ice Sheet mass gain.
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nukefix

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2021, 06:49:50 PM »
Here's a link to an interactive portal in TU-Dresden, includes GRACE/GRACE-FO graphs per basin and whole ice sheets:

https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/


gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2021, 07:29:22 PM »
Here's a link to an interactive portal in TU-Dresden, includes GRACE/GRACE-FO graphs per basin and whole ice sheets:

https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/
Thanks nukefix.

Unfortunately the data ends in Dec 2017 when the original GRACE satellites started to fail.
It has not been kept going to include the new GRACE-FO data - which is a great pity.

But I get data every month or so from GTZ by basin - always a month or two after I get the JPL summary data (i.e. AIS total only). The January and Feb 21 basin data could be really interesting.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2021, 01:16:05 PM »
Here is the latest Ice Sheet graphs generated from GRACE + GRACE-FO processed by

https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

To mid March '21
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2021, 04:52:10 PM »
Here is the latest Ice Sheet graphs generated from GRACE + GRACE-FO processed by

https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

To mid April '21
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2021, 07:57:17 PM »
Here is the latest Ice Sheet graphs generated from GRACE + GRACE-FO data processed by the JPL.

https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

To mid June '21
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2021, 07:27:29 PM »
And here are the long-term 365 day trailing avergaes of global SEA ICE EXTENT derived from from JAXA data

Both Arctic and Antarctic averages have been consistently increasing this year. As at the 31st August, the global average is 1.31 million km2 above the all time record low in September 2017, and 215k km2 above the long-term linear trend.

The current rate of increase is well over 3,000km2 per day, i.e. well over 1 million km2 per year.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2021, 08:47:20 PM »
And here are the long-term 365 day trailing avergaes of global SEA ICE EXTENT derived from from JAXA data

Both Arctic and Antarctic averages have been consistently increasing this year. As at the 31st August, the global average is 1.31 million km2 above the all time record low in September 2017, and 215k km2 above the long-term linear trend.

The current rate of increase is well over 3,000km2 per day, i.e. well over 1 million km2 per year.

If we assume that the variation is not random, but a natural response to decreasing sea ice and that the linear trend is the correct interpretation, then it is likely that the increase will continue to increase for at least another year to compensate for the drop, before continuing its downward trend.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2021, 03:54:22 PM »
Here are some graphs from the GRACE / GRACE-FO satellite series on the Greenland (GIS) and Antarctic (AIS) Ice sheets. Data is to mid-August 2021.

They come from the JPL's PO.DACC system @
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

You have to register with PO.DACC system but that is no problem.

click to enlarge images
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2021, 03:09:11 PM »
A look at sea ice highs and lows in the Arctic, Antarctic & Global

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425721004739?dgcid=rss_sd_all
Sea ice extents continue to set new records: Arctic, Antarctic, and global results

Quote
Highlights
• Arctic sea ice extents set 93 monthly 11 yearly record lows post-1986, 0 record highs.
• Highs dominated Antarctic sea ice extent records until 2016, followed by lows.
• Since 2015, global sea ice extents have set new monthly record lows for all 12 months.
• During 1979–2020, Arctic September sea ice extents varied 53%, March extents only 12%.
• #During 1979–2020, global yearly average sea ice extents varied by only 12%.

Abstract
The multi-channel satellite passive-microwave record of Earth's sea ice coverage, extending back to the late 1970s, has long revealed declining sea ice coverage in the Arctic but through 2015 revealed an overall increase rather than decrease in Antarctic sea ice coverage.

Following major decreases in Antarctic sea ice since 2015, the 42-year 1979–2020 satellite dataset now shows recent losses in sea ice coverage in both hemispheres, and this is convincingly demonstrated by the enumeration of monthly and yearly record high and record low sea ice extents experienced over the course of the 42 years.

In fact, one of the most convincing statistics on the declining Arctic sea ice cover is the fact that since 1986 the Arctic has not experienced a single monthly record high sea ice extent in any month but has experienced 93 monthly record lows. In contrast, all 12 calendar months have their 42-year Antarctic monthly record high sea ice extents in the period 2007–2015, while 8 of the 12 calendar months have had Antarctic record lows since 2015.

Globally, every calendar month has registered a new monthly record low within the past 5 years. These results are complemented (and somewhat tempered) by quantification of the range of monthly and yearly sea ice extent values over the 42 years. For instance, although the Arctic's lowest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 2012) is 53% lower than its highest September monthly average sea ice extent (in 1980), the other months have far smaller percent differences between their lowest and highest Arctic values. For yearly average sea ice extents, the Arctic's lowest value (in 2020) is 18% lower than its highest value (in 1982), the Antarctic's lowest value (in 2017) is 16% lower than its highest value (in 2014), and the global lowest value (in 2019) is only 12% lower than its highest value (in 1982).

Results
Results are presented for the Arctic, Antarctic, and global datasets through 3-D and flat visualizations, tabulations of the monthly and yearly rankings, and graphics of the occurrence of each record high and each record low (Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 3).

click images to enlarge, click maximise for full screen
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2021, 03:06:40 PM »
I find the global 3D chart noisy but the other two are fascinating. This is amazing work. Visualizations can show definitively trends that can be obscured in data tables.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2021, 01:58:08 PM »
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

JPL / PO.DACC have published GRACE/GRACE-FO Greenland and Antractic ice sheet mass data to October 21.

Graphs attached - no dramatic changes.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2022, 04:22:51 PM »
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

JPL / PO.DACC have published GRACE/GRACE-FO Greenland and Antractic ice sheet mass data to November 21.

Graph attached - no dramatic changes. 8 Trillion tons of ice loss since 2002
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2022, 04:01:06 PM »
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

JPL / PO.DACC have published GRACE/GRACE-FO Greenland and Antractic ice sheet mass data to January 21.

Graph attached - no dramatic changes. 8 Trillion tons of ice loss since 2002, i.e. about 400 GT per year.
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WildFit

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2022, 06:58:08 PM »
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

JPL / PO.DACC have published GRACE/GRACE-FO Greenland and Antractic ice sheet mass data to January 21.

Graph attached - no dramatic changes. 8 Trillion tons of ice loss since 2002, i.e. about 400 GT per year.


That is dramatic IMO or was it sarcasm ?

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2022, 07:53:57 PM »
https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/files/allData/tellus/L4/ice_mass/RL06/v02/mascon_CRI

JPL / PO.DACC have published GRACE/GRACE-FO Greenland and Antractic ice sheet mass data to January 21.

Graph attached - no dramatic changes. 8 Trillion tons of ice loss since 2002, i.e. about 400 GT per year.
That is dramatic IMO or was it sarcasm ?
Depends how you look at it.

8,000 GT, 400 GT  / 400 Km3 p.a. is definitely a lot of ice.

On the other hand...

400 km3  of ice raises sea level by 1.1 millimetre.
With total ice of the GIS+AIS being just under 30 mllion GT, losing 8,000 GT is just 0.03 percent.
At 400 GT per annum it would take about 73 thousand years to melt the ice sheets.

Drama for me is when I see some acceleration in the rate of loss of ice on the ice sheets - currently seems confined to the Antarctic.


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mitch

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2022, 06:00:48 PM »
Global sea level is rising currently at 3.3 mm/yr.  1.1 mm/yr from the ice sheets is 1/3 of that total, so is very significant:
https://sealevel.colorado.edu/

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2022, 08:17:49 PM »
For a change - here is a look at Global sea ice trends using Jaxa sea ice extent data

Two graphs - total Arctic + Antarctic
and shown separately

It is Antarctic that is leading the current drop (at the moment).

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #22 on: April 30, 2022, 12:44:46 PM »
Attached is a graph showing ice sheet mass loss GRACE / GRACE-FO from data to mid-Jan 22 provided by JPL.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2022, 03:03:14 PM »
And here is an analysis of Global sea ice area from NSIDC data.

NSIDC 5 Day trailing Average -  GLOBAL SEA ICE AREA:  17,555,496 KM2 as at 29-Apr-2022

- Extent gain on this day 27k, 21 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 3.56 million km2, 0.05 million km2, 1.3% less than the 10 year average gain of 3.61 million km2.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record

- Extent is  -0.95 million km2 LESS than 1980's Average
- Extent is  -0.56 million km2 LESS than 2010's Average
- Extent is  -0.20 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Extent is  0.61 million km2 MORE than 2017
- Extent is  0.62 million km2 MORE than 2018
- Extent is  0.25 million km2 MORE than 2020
- Extent is  -0.68 million km2 LESS than 2021

On average 61.6% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 188 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity.

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2022 of 19.80 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 19.07 million km2.
___________________________________________________
After passing the  the false maximum in late June/ early July and the false minimum in early September, sea ice extent then makes the final run to the maximum in late October /early November .

N.B. In 2016 the maximum  for the year was reached in mid June. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Click an image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2022, 03:30:57 PM »
And here is an analysis of Global sea ice area 365 day trailing average from NSIDC data.


After the 2017 record low minimum the 365 day global average has been on a generally upward trend. Perhaps a change is in place. Global area is back below the long-term linear trend since 12 March 22 - by 145k, mainly due to low Antarctic sea ice area.

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #25 on: July 22, 2022, 11:34:26 AM »
Attached is a graph showing ice sheet mass loss GRACE / GRACE-FO from data to mid-May 22 provided by JPL.

click to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #26 on: August 11, 2022, 04:31:08 PM »
Attached is a graph showing ice sheet mass loss GRACE / GRACE-FO to mid-Jun 22 provided by JPL.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2022, 08:15:48 PM »
Attached is a graph showing ice sheet mass loss GRACE / GRACE-FO to mid-July 22 provided by JPL.

Also attached is the 365 day trailing avaege graph of total sea ice extent , which obscures the completely different trend in the 365 day average in the Arctic compared with the Antarctic over the last year or two (graph also attached).

click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2022, 11:21:38 PM »
GFZ - Helmholtz Cenre, Potsdam has also produced Greenland & Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Loss Data from GRACE/GRACE-FO data to August 22.

Overall, in the last 2+ years mass loss has been relatively slow.

click image to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #29 on: February 25, 2023, 11:17:07 PM »
Arctic & Antarctic Icesheet Mass Balance

As you can see from the previous posts until late 2022 I was posting data and graphs on t he progress of icesheet mass losses using data from the GRACE-FO satellites. These satellites replaced the GRACE satellites and was undertaken by a partnership between Germany and NASA/JPL. Data was being produced by both JPL and Germany (from the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Dresden)

There have been no updates in recent months. I asked both NASA/JPL and the German Institute "pourquoi". Both replied that producing the data involved data from many sources applied to the GRACE-FO data and was continually evolving, isostatic rebound & oblateness (see extract from paper on oblateness below)

I have now received a much more informative email from Herr Professor Frank Flechtner - see below. I was taken aback to read that a major reason for delay is " we are all doing that work without dedicated funding".

Amazing - ice sheet mass loss and consequent sea level rise is an major threat to many who live on the coast and large low lying areas - e.g.s Bangladesh, Louisiana. Having spent a fortune on putting the satellites up there not having the relatively minor funding to support all the projects that use the data is just....... words fail me.

At least he says that I (& the ASIF) are exactly the sort of users they want to reach

Ho hum
_____________________________________________________
Frank Flechtner
24 Feb 2023, 10:42

Dear Matthew,

first of all the Greenland ice mass balance site is still available. I do not know when the direct link has changed, but if you simply google "GravIS and GFZ" you still arrive at http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de. There you could simply click on the corresponding ice sheet sub-pages for Greenland Ice Sheets (GIS) and Antartica Ice Sheets (AIS). The direct links are http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/gis and http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/ais.

The current status is indeed still August 2022. The reasons behind that are a) the delay of 60 days to produce Level-2 gravity fields in the GRACE-FO Science Data System and b) minimum 30 days to combine L2 products from different centers to a combined solution (done in Bern/Switzerland, see also reply from Thorben) and c) also some time to produce AIS/GIS. This means that the September 2022 data could be converted to Level-3 / 4 data theoretically not before early January and October 2022 not before early February this year. But as you state, they are not there. The reason is that we are all doing that work without dedicated funding. At GFZ we have worked instead in the past 2-3 months to realize a new Groundwater Water Storage (GWS) sub-page which can be accessed at http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/gws. I guess that this new feature was the reason for the new 3 character long sub-page names. These new products are a result of a EU funded project "Global Gravity-based Groundwater Product" which ended December 31 and which was presented at the final meeting this week. So a lot of preparations were needed. Details on G3P can be found in the sub-page.

So once again: we are very happy that you use our products and you are exactly a user we are looking for! And we will also try to provide the L3 products in time. But sometimes our capacities are simply limited and the regular 90-100 days delay gets longer. We will try to provide the missing products for 2022 soon but cannot give a concrete date today. Therefore I cc also some colleagues involved and advice you to simply visit GravIS frequently. You could also write a script and check the available GravIS data sets at the GFZ ISDC archive regularly. At the moment you see at https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo-isdc/grace-fo-gravity-data-and-documentation/ the AIS/GIS data "GRAVIS-3_2002095-2022243_COSTG_0100_GIS_*". This string could be analyzed to inform you automatically when a new product has arrived.

Thanks

Frank
___________________________________________________________
This paper concludes that annual icesheet mass loss is understated by about 15 GT per year in Antarctica and 3.5 GT in Greenland, implying an additional 0.08 mm sea level rise. Not much per year but over a long time span - a lot.

The paper was published in June 2019 but it looks like the results are only now being built into the analyses of GRACE-FO data.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082929
Improved Earth Oblateness Rate Reveals Increased Ice Sheet Losses and Mass-Driven Sea Level Rise
Quote
Abstract
Satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations are routinely applied toward the estimation of dynamic oblateness, C20, which is the largest globally integrated component of Earth's time-variable gravity field. Since 2002, GRACE and GRACE Follow-On have revolutionized the recovery of higher spatial resolution features of global time-variable gravity, with SLR continuing to provide the most reliable estimates of C20. We quantify the effect of various SLR processing strategies on estimating C20 and demonstrate better signal recovery with the inclusion of GRACE-derived low-degree gravity information in the forward model. This improved SLR product modifies the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet mass trends by −15.4 and −3.5 Gt/year, respectively, as compared to CSR TN11, and improves global mean sea level budget closure by modifying sea level rise by +0.08 mm/year. We recommend that this new C20 product be applied to RL06 GRACE data products for enhanced accuracy and scientific interpretation.

Key Points
- New satellite laser ranging C20 solution reveals larger Antarctic and Greenland ice mass losses and mass-driven sea level rise
- The new C20 result improves closure of the global mean sea level budget and agreement with an independent Antarctic ice mass assessment
- We recommend this new product for replacing the GRACE C20 values for science applications
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #30 on: February 25, 2023, 11:47:34 PM »
This paper is about the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets - pity about the title

Basically, they say if humanity manages to follow the SSP 1-1.9 Low emissions scenario, things might be OK(ish).

The SSP 5-8.5 High emissions scenario means humanity is in trouble.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36051-9
Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
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Abstract
Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity.

Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of
0.2 ± 0.01,
0.5 ± 0.01 and
1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively.


Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.

Results Note from me - see attached images

According to our numerical experiments, the Ross ice-shelf completely disappears in the SSP5-8.5 scenario after 2100 CE (Fig. 3g, h). At this time basal melting and calving rates peak (Fig. 4g, h). A secondary simulated increase in these fluxes at the beginning of the 22nd century is associated with an accelerated retreat of the Ronne-Filchner ice-shelves (Figs. 3h, 4g, h). Even though the AIS contribution to SL rise is initially smaller than that of the GrIS (before 2100 CE), the rapid loss of stabilizing ice-shelves leads to a gradual increase of ice flow across the grounding lines that will initiate positive ice-sheet feedbacks associated with the MISI23, hydrofracturing and MICI5,29. The AIS calving fluxes, which attain values of ~2 cm/year SLE by 2080 CE (corresponding to a freshwater flux into the ocean of ~0.34 Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3/s), dominate the negative mass balance and global SL contribution. The accelerated mass loss over the AIS is related to a combination of surface melting, basal melting and grounding line retreat which contributes to the massive ice calving fluxes (Fig. 4f–h) – each component with their individual temporal contributions to the total freshwater and SL effect.

In contrast to the AIS, the GrIS shows a gradual decrease in basal melting and ice calving fluxes (Fig. 4c, d), interrupted only by an abrupt GrIS ice calving event around 2090 CE in SSP5-8.5, which is associated with a complete loss of small ice-shelf areas. In Greenland the dominant mass loss and the contribution to SL are due to the positive trend in surface melting, which attains values of up to 2.1 ± 0.3 cm/year SLE by 2150 CE (Fig. 4b)—a ~30-fold increase compared to the recent observed interannual rates of GrIS mass loss (Supplementary Fig. S3a).

Discussion
Here we used the coupled three-dimensional climate-ice-sheet model LOVECLIP to better understand the impact of ice-sheet/ice-shelf/ocean/atmosphere coupling processes on the future evolution of GrIS and AIS, and to estimate their respective contributions to SL rise.

In our high-end emission scenario, the GrIS and AIS each contribute about 60–70 cm to global mean SL rise over the next 130 years. Even though for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 global surface temperatures are projected to increase at a reduced rate after 2100 CE (Fig. 2e), the ice-sheet contributions to SL continue to accelerate beyond 2100 CE (Fig. 2g, h), mostly driven by accelerated surface melting in case of the GrIS and due to a combination of effects for the AIS. According to our simulations, limiting 21st century global surface temperature rise to 2 °C above the pre-industrial level41,47 would be insufficient to slowdown the rate of global SL rise over the next 130 years42. Only the more aggressive low greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP1-1.9), with temperatures leveling off below 1.5 °C (Fig. 2a), avoids SL rise acceleration (Fig. 2f). A longer-term warming and SL perspective until 2500 CE (Supplementary Table S1) illustrates that for the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SL rise due to GrIS melting accelerates for over 250 years after maximum global warming rates occur, and peaks at over 0.3 cm/year shortly before 2300 CE (Supplementary Fig. S7g). The Antarctic SL contribution for SSP2-4.5 fluctuates between 0.2 and 0.3 cm/year from 2200–2500 CE (Supplementary Fig. S7h). This indicates an even more prolonged response and larger commitment to SL rise due to 21st century warming, with the total AIS contribution reaching about 1.1 m by 2500 CE. In contrast, the aggressive greenhouse gas reduction scenario SSP1-1.9 with temperatures leveling off at less than 1.5 °C (Supplementary Fig. S7a, e) is sufficient to prevent substantial ice-loss in Antarctica (Supplementary Fig. S7h) over the next centuries.
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kassy

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2023, 05:42:13 PM »
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I was taken aback to read that a major reason for delay is " we are all doing that work without dedicated funding".

Yeah you would think there would be some money for that...

Quote
Basically, they say if humanity manages to follow the SSP 1-1.9 Low emissions scenario, things might be OK(ish).

So actually reach net zero by 2050.

Then again global numbers are one thing and the effects on specific places can easily get worse then the global average. Plus how good are the models? We find out new things about Greenland ice dynamics regularly, while Antarctica is a bit further away but when we finally checked out Thwaithes we found damage which was not new. How much of this is actually succesfully incorporated into the models?
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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #32 on: February 27, 2023, 01:33:18 AM »
Nice of professor Frank Flechtner to take the time and write such a detailed response. Sad that no dedicated funding exists for this sort of data processing and presentation.
And good of you Gero to continually follow up and present all these various data sources.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #33 on: May 22, 2023, 12:58:01 PM »
JPL have update their GRACE-FO icesheet mass data to February 2023.

AS yet GFZ have not updated their analyses which go down to basin level
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2023, 12:15:08 AM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO icesheet mass data to Mid-May 2023.

As yet GFZ have not updated their analyses which go down to basin level - still stuck at September 2022

Mass loss has basically stalled for a year.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #35 on: September 09, 2023, 10:24:07 PM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO icesheet mass data to Mid-June 2023.

As yet GFZ have not updated their analyses which go down to basin level - still stuck at September 2022

Mass loss has basically stalled for a year or more, which means that although sea level rise is continuing, it is currently due to thermal expansion from global ocean heat increasing at a rapid rate.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2023, 05:27:31 PM »
GFZ have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to March 2023.
Maybe we will get regular updates? (maybe not)

Overall Ice Sheet Mass loss has sort of stalled in that last 2-3 years. Not that the glaciers and ice shelves have stopped melting but surface mass balance (SMB) gains from snowfall have been sufficient to compensate.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #37 on: November 11, 2023, 07:39:19 PM »
GFZ have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to mid-June 2023.

Overall Ice Sheet Mass loss has sort of stalled in the last 2-3 years.

Not that the glaciers and ice shelves have stopped melting but surface mass balance (SMB) gains from snowfall have been sufficient to compensate - symptoms of a warmer wetter world?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2023, 03:04:07 PM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to mid-September 2023.

Greenland ice sheet mass loss was 350 GT in the 3 months mid-June to mid-Seotember.

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss was      5 GT in the 3 months mid-June to mid-Seotember.
Not that the glaciers and ice shelves have stopped melting (especially basal melting) but surface mass balance (SMB) gains from snowfall have been sufficient to compensate - symptoms of a warmer wetter Antarctic?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #39 on: January 09, 2024, 02:36:37 PM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to mid-October 2023.

Mid-September to mid-October saw a 136GT AIS mass loss and a 15GT GIS mass gain. The resulting AIS+GIS mass loss of 121GT means mass loss from 2002 is at a new maximum of 7,966GT, 74 GT more tan the previous maximum of 7,892Gt in mid-November 2021.
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Sublime_Rime

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #40 on: January 09, 2024, 08:31:24 PM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to mid-October 2023.

Mid-September to mid-October saw a 136GT AIS mass loss and a 15GT GIS mass gain. The resulting AIS+GIS mass loss of 121GT means mass loss from 2002 is at a new maximum of 7,966GT, 74 GT more tan the previous maximum of 7,892Gt in mid-November 2021.

Thanks for posting this Gero. I think the AIS and GIS in your description might be reversed, at least according to the plot?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2024, 11:04:26 PM »
JPL have updated their GRACE-FO Ice sheet analysis to mid-October 2023.

Mid-September to mid-October saw a 136GT AIS mass loss and a 15GT GIS mass gain. The resulting AIS+GIS mass loss of 121GT means mass loss from 2002 is at a new maximum of 7,966GT, 74 GT more tan the previous maximum of 7,892Gt in mid-November 2021.

Thanks for posting this Gero. I think the AIS and GIS in your description might be reversed, at least according to the plot?
The attached table makes it clearer.  The AIS mass loss had stalled for some time
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2024, 09:24:31 PM »
JPL has issued AIS & GIS mass loss data to Dec 2023

A modest Antarctic mass loss of 32GT + a small Arctic Mass gaIn of 5GT gives a net mass loss of 27GT  in December, and total mass loss 2002 to date of 8.027GT, a new high.

The implied sea level rise from mass loss since 2022 is just over 22 mms.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global ice trends
« Reply #43 on: April 25, 2024, 11:20:47 PM »
JPL Data to Jan 24

Due to a very high AIS Mass Loss in Jan, AIS+GIS Mass Loss increased by 255GT to 8,295GT since early 2022. This has added about 23 mms to global sea levels.
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