Casual 2021 melting season predictions

[PragmaticAntithesis]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 17^th, 2021:
     13,875,310 km², a century break drop of -103,507 km². 
     2021 is now 7^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

Alright, I'll start with my first prediction: that melting season has started!

[bbr2315]

"Positives"

1) Beaufort retains most ice in years or decades
2) CAA and Hudson Bay also hold strong though latter still melts out

"Negatives"

1) Kara, Barentz, Laptev melt early
2) CAB front sees major retreat and blue North Pole
3) Okhotsk and Bering and Chukchi are bad but about as bad as other recent years

Implications for continents

1) Residual cold pocket in North America = sporadic cold outbreaks and late season snowfalls into Grain Belt and major cities
2) Major cold and snow remains extant across most of Canada, especially near Rockies, into early or mid summer
3) Major heatwaves in eastern US / Canada by spring + early summer, and Europe
4) Cold pocket over NW Eurasia near Urals, shifting to Himalayas by summer (?) with major flooding again a concern in Eastern Asia?
5) Early spring and summer torch over NE Siberia?

[HapHazard]

I've no idea what to expect this melt season. What I do expect is more unusual and/or (near)record events. As in, I feel like "normal/kinda boring" melt seasons are more of a rarity nowadays, if not a thing of the past completely.

A more concrete casual prediction, from a casual forum-goer: the "state of the ice" will be another concern, similar to last year.

[interstitial]

Someone always calls the start of the melting season too early. I would call it a prediction but it happens every year. Based on extent it is probably at least two weeks away and based on volume it is probably more like 6 weeks away. If anything the peak seems to shift later in the year as warming has to reach further north to start melting as the extent gets smaller.

predictions:


With thicker Ice shifted south into the Buefort and thicker ice on the Russian side early extent melt will be slow but accelerate mid season. A much deeper Atlantic bite than usual is probable. In early season the ice will seem stronger than it is.


The ice at the end of this season will be shockingly fragile. Record low volume.

[oren]

I tend to agree:
Min based on extent it is probably two weeks away.
With thicker Ice shifted south into the Beaufort and thicker ice on the Russian side early extent melt will be slow but accelerate mid season.
A much deeper Atlantic bite than usual is probable.
The ice at the end of this season will be shockingly fragile.

I am doubtful:
Record low volume. (At least according to PIOMAS)

[longwalks1]

I have never posted in the melt or freezing sections because I do not fell worthy, or have any particular new insight.   As Insterstitial posted, a lot of it is a whole lot more "crummy" rotten ice, something that emeritus Dr. Barber of U of Manitoba talked about in presentations that have gone onto Youtube years ago.  ( I did see that he does still do peer reviewing of articles).  A summer of even more rotten ice to set the stage for disasters in later years in the Canadian Archipelago.   A summer to possibly decimate  3-4 year old ice.   Maybe a new record low extent / area  / volume, but maybe not. 

Although the intensifications of hurricanes, rain events, etc.  seems to be going from a model to probable; intensifications of El Ninos is probably a murky model -  pattern deduction from all too little data and inductive logic, a very weak base.     

But I will go out on a rotten limb and postulate that the next strong El Nino will hammer the ice (and permafrost). 2022, I can visualize area will go below 2,000,000 with a strong El Nino.     

Friv - where are you?   

[interstitial]

I am doubtful:
Record low volume. (At least according to PIOMAS)

You may be right but if you don't provide at least a little boldness in a prediction it is not as much fun.

[Paul]

I feel this melting season will be different to 2020 especially over Siberia where the ice should be more resilient than it was last year.

If we get a stormy summer over the pole, I would expect sea ice too look like 2013 and 2016 where the ice was very heavily diffused because the indications seem to suggest the ice near the pole is not all that thick.

All in all though, I got a feeling this melting season will be similar to 2018, not expecting record lows but we could see a sharp Atlantic retreat and an early melt in the Barants sea but Kara sea hanging on longer due to the weather compacting the ice for last 4 to 6 weeks.

Maybe this summer will prove that low pressure could be just as bad for the pole ice as high pressure.

[icefisher]

Weather that supports strong Fram export of older ice will lower area.  However you need 2-3 months of continuous export to reach a new 2021 minimum.  I give that a 5% chance.  Everything else is mostly offsetting.  Major weather patterns will be neutral this melt season.  Active arctic weather will prevent large scale processes from locking in place resulting in Area minimum of 3,695,000 on Sept. 17 2021; Extent minimum of 4,972,000 on Sept. 9 2021.  A fairly decent year for retaining ice. 

[Rodius]

Oh, what the hell.....

I think the minimum will be below 4 million but higher than 2020.

As others have said, I think the Atlantic side will melt fast while the Pacific will be slow to start but play catch up mid season.

I have a feeling the melting will go deeply toward the pole. The images of ice in that region are hard to comprehend, I personally don't see ice being there for much longer during the minimum. My guess is that is where the shock value will be this year.

[Ktb]

Area minimum of 3,695,000 on Sept. 17 2021; Extent minimum of 4,972,000 on Sept. 9 2021.  A fairly decent year for retaining ice.

Even "recovery years" such as 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 did not see 4.9 million km². Prepare to be wrong by a large margin.

My prediction is that icefisher's prediction will be very very far off the mark.

[blu_ice]

My prediction is we will witness one or more occurrences of very weird weather around the Arctic (and elsewhere). Something like the record breaking Siberian heatwave or the GAAC of 2020.

Because in climate and weather, weird is the new normal.

[binntho]

Sticking to my previous guns, I'll stand by my prediction that 2021 sees record low average Extent and even record low average Volume.

[gerontocrat]

Alright, I'll start with my first prediction: that melting season has started!

After the 2nd century extent loss suddenly that prediction is looking at least feasible.
In 3 out of the last 10 years remaining extent gain is insufficient to increase 2021 extent above the current maximum of 13.98 million km2 on the 16th February.

click image to enlarge

[karl dubhe2]

Well, to be contrary, as everyone else expects the ice to be a minimum (so do I) and is predicting that, I'll say the ice will completely cover the northern hemisphere.   (Puff, puff, puff; virtual pass)

Honestly, I dunno, will be fun to watch it and read your informed and serious opinions as it happens.

[crandles]

Arctic sea ice will stay boringly near the low edge as it has for the past 8 years.

[SimonF92]

Preconditioning will cause another ESS/Laptev early blow-out. Record low volume but im guessing extent will stay above 2012

[RikW]

I guess it will follow the trend we are seeing for decades. It will be between the downward trend +/- 2 SD probably.

I wouldn't be suprised if we see the decline speeding up, because of all the preconditiong done last years and the worldwide lack of real climate action

[Alphabet Hotel]

I went over to Climate Reanalyzer and looked at the predicted temperature anomalies. There's a lot of warm air over the North Pole and that will continue for the next ten days.

[Tor Bejnar]

I predict the professionals who predict ice futures in June [and/or July ...] (averaged) will err by expecting more September Arctic sea ice than the September reality (as published by the professionals) while we (the ASIF folks who vote in forum polls, averaged) will err by expecting less.

[Glen Koehler]

     I'm with estimates by Crandles and Tor:  Another low but not breakout melt season, and the usual pattern of over- and under-estimation.  2012 retains its titles for one more year, but not much longer.  The underlying trends are catching up to and will soon be surpassing 2012.
     
     Low loss factors: Negative ENSO burying more heat into the deep ocean with less heat going into the atmosphere; high snow amount in high latitudes, strong second half to freezing season (I think?); relatively high maximum Extent and Volume values at start of melt season (compared to most recent years, not historical); extra ice in some traditional earlier melting regions may delay transition to open water in those areas, thus increasing seasonal albedo; slower losses because thin ice melts more slowly than thick ice, and because there is less thick ice to lose via Fram export.

      High loss factors: Craptastic condition of ice by end of 2020; slow start to freezing season; southward shift of center of thick ice (according to HYCOM, but PIOMAS thickness map update today does not seem to fit that, I'm confused); polar cell disruption allowing warm wet air masses from lower latitudes to migrate into the Arctic; continued GHG emissions; aerosol decline; recent emergence of Atlantification warm water intrusion pushing on thermocline in Laptev, ESS and Chukchi; continuation of the Beaufort transition from ice nursery to ice graveyard; continued progression of ice thinning reaching the point at which melt rate increases due to qualitative and mechanical changes; further weakening of the Nares ice arch and de-plugging of the relatively narrow ice lanes of the Nares strait, McClure strait and elsewhere in the CAA; continued hot air bloviation by politicians.
     Wild card -- some weird interaction that nobody saw coming or even thought was possible that develops rather suddenly.
     
     It would interesting to see other factors I forgot or don't know about.  Plus posts/links to predictions by actual Arctic scientists or by some of the more grizzled and august ASIF members along with the reasoning behind them.  The dart tosses by the rest of us are also interesting.  With enough guesses, somebody will be spot on. 

[Sepp]

Three times three:
Extend, Area and Volume minimum will all be closer to 3 million square kilometers / 3 thousand cubic kilometers than to any other full million /thousand in all usual data collections. 

[nadir]

Great Arctic Amplification (AA) 2020 is most probably responsible of this Winter of polar weather pattern disruption, and that ultimately has caused a tremendous anomaly of snow cover over North America, see recent tweets by Judah Cohen.

I wonder if this anomaly will be able to cause a delay of snow melt by about one or two weeks at least, bringing the Spring to the NA side of the Arctic a little late, and causing slower ice melting in summer.

I wonder if excessive AA due to a big melting season one year may lead to extreme winter weather, ultimately contributing to “quench” the following melting season.

Time to start keeping an eye to snow cover maps.

[El Cid]

Great Arctic Amplification (AA) 2020 is most probably responsible of this Winter of polar weather pattern disruption, and that ultimately has caused a tremendous anomaly of snow cover over North America, see recent tweets by Judah Cohen.

It seems to me that all the ice that remains is on the American side and with the shallow Siberian seas I expect this trend to remain for the nex few years. This means a warmer Eurasia and warmer America BUT with sudden breakouts of cold to NA. Also, I expect an early meltout and very late refreeze of the Siberian Seas a la 2020. It's a trend I believe that started a few years earlier

[PragmaticAntithesis]

I wonder if excessive AA due to a big melting season one year may lead to extreme winter weather, ultimately contributing to “quench” the following melting season.

Now that you mention it: 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018 all had fairly quiet melting seasons following 2007, 2012 and 2016, so you might be on to something. That said, 2019 and 2020 were two consecutive strong melting seasons.

[bbr2315]

I wonder if excessive AA due to a big melting season one year may lead to extreme winter weather, ultimately contributing to “quench” the following melting season.

Now that you mention it: 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018 all had fairly quiet melting seasons following 2007, 2012 and 2016, so you might be on to something. That said, 2019 and 2020 were two consecutive strong melting seasons.

I would posit that aerosol reductions greatly contributed to the melt season last year.

[PragmaticAntithesis]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 24^th, 2021:
     13,701,350 km², a drop of -47,203 km².
     2021 is now 2^nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

P.S. 277K km² lost since Feb 16th.
      Is it time to declare the start of 2021 melting season? 

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

I'm off to a good start this year!

My next prediction is that this melt season is going to be a relatively quiet one, with the minimum being above 4 square megametres. The recent SSW event has ejected a lot of heat into space, and La Nina has shoved a lot of heat deep into the Pacific.

[pearscot]

This is a good thread idea (and honestly it has been too long since I last posted here, but life is so busy right now).

ANYWAYS, my prediction: I think this year will finish 3rd but may *kinda* parallel 2020. For a while I thought 2021 would enter a weak el nino during the spring/early summer, but seeing as how a mild to moderate la nina pattern looks to hold, I suspect its effects therein will be limited.

With that said, I hypothesize the massive Greenland crack will once again make a strong appearance and I do see the potential for the Kara/East Siberian Sea to melt early. I'm also hyper interested in seeing how quickly Barrow loses its landfast ice as well as when Wrangle Island is free. This is a low key post so I'm not going to go into depth at this point in time since it's still so early in the year.

[gerontocrat]

https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts

Russia says a warm Siberia April to June

Note: Google Chrome won't show the images on this site but Firefox will.

[Fractious]

The raptors are nesting lower again this year where I live so 5th to 6th lowest all burger. A shout out to the
Ojibway Nation.

I'm here all week..two shows Sat.

[nadir]

https://meteoinfo.ru/en/climate/seasonal-forecasts

Russia says a warm Siberia April to June

Note: Google Chrome won't show the images on this site but Firefox will.

The CFS equivalent also predicts a warmer Siberia this Spring

Edit adding the Canadian CanSIPS model that Tropicaltidbits brings for long range prediction.

Not really encouraging the trust in these models

If you combine the anomalies CFS+CanSIPS you get noise.

[gerontocrat]

Based on the melt in the last 10 years I predict the 2021 JAXA extent minimum will be somewhere between 2.6 and 5 million km2.

But perhaps that does not help.

[The Walrus]

Based on the melt in the last 10 years I predict the 2021 JAXA extent minimum will be somewhere between 2.6 and 5 million km2.

But perhaps that does not help.

I cannot argue with that logic. 

[Tor Bejnar]

Gerontocrat,
If you were a 'true believing' member of this community you would include an ice free option as a possibility. (Even Roulette returns a "00" occasionally.)  And where did you get this "past experience leads to future expectations" concept?  ("Science", or something?)  You obviously don't listen to stock brokers who hedge their bets.

But you might be right! 

[johnm33]

Looks like a busy 10 days ahead, surges both ways through Fram cracks by Greenland, maybe Ellesmere too, turbulence across the Barents shelf and some evidence of vorticy in and around Laptev. Maybe capped off with another calving of Zacheriae.

[interstitial]

I say 2.4-3.7 million km2

[oren]

Welcome back, johnm.

[El Cid]

Gerontocrat,
If you were a 'true believing' member of this community you would include an ice free option as a possibility. ...

Absolutely. A true believer would say:

The Atlantic regions and the North Pole is exteremely weak/thin so will obviously melt out. The Russians say that Siberia will be warm, so your Siberian Seas will also melt out like last year. What remains? The Beaufort? Surrounded by warm open seas? No matter how thick it is, it will melt out in September.

And there's your BOE!

[gerontocrat]

I'm a believer?  nah.

[oren]

Folks, I admire the humor but please don't go off-topic.

[pauldry600]

I think sub4s is "the new normal"(that horrible phrase)

3.8m JAXA min for me

[Richard Rathbone]

The raptors are nesting lower again this year where I live so 5th to 6th lowest all burger. A shout out to the
Ojibway Nation.

I'm here all week..two shows Sat.

My seaweed (requires extended period of local snow coverage and a spring drought that breaks just in time for the first Test match to predict high melt) also says nothingburger. 

[gerontocrat]

Gerontocrat,
If you were a 'true believing' member of this community you would include an ice free option as a possibility. ...

Absolutely. A true believer would say:

The Atlantic regions and the North Pole is extremely weak/thin so will obviously melt out. The Russians say that Siberia will be warm, so your Siberian Seas will also melt out like last year. What remains? The Beaufort? Surrounded by warm open seas? No matter how thick it is, it will melt out in September.

And there's your BOE!

But it ain't necessarily so.... (Porgy & Bess).

To avoid tending to household duties I have been taking the Wipneus daily regional area data and fiddling with it to produce regional sea tables directly comparable to the Wipneus volume data as the boundaries are the same. Bingo - thickness graphs.

I also remembered that there is much discussion / argument about whether the warming of seas for a much longer period because of early melt would and consequent late refreeze would reduce winter sea ice growth. OR would the release of heat to the atmosphere from those seas late in the year because of open water rather than an insulating later of ice / snow mean ice growth would be average.

So what I looked at was the Kara and Laptev volume and thickness data as both seas (especially the Laptev) melted out very early in 2020 and freeze commenced very late. And what do we see?

- Ice volume and thickness recovered very quickly once the freeze commenced and reached above  above the 2010's average in both seas in mid-January.
- In the Laptev, at the end of February, ice volume and thickness are above the 2000's average.

It is diificult not to conclude that at least in the High Arctic, up until now additional heat captured by the seas from an early melt will be exceeded by heat loss from open water late in the year instead of the insulating ice and snow cover. This will tend to slow the following year's melt.

And there's not your BOE!

click to enlarge images

[Paul]

Regarding the post above, maybe its just down to weather?  A negative AO(which for the main part from what I seen it was) tends to favour thicker Siberian because of high pressure increasing the Gyre and compacting ice in the ESS especially. Kara sea ice tends to get compacted against Novaya Zemlya and has been below average for the most part when the ice eventually formed so despite a late start, it can easily and quickly catch up. In reality though, it's the ice in the northern parts of the Kara sea that is more important as the ice near Novaya Zemlya gets seperated from the main pack.

So with all that, still sticking with my prediction there should not be as rapid melt of the ice in the Siberian regions this year, it should be more "normal" (for recent times).

[uniquorn]

This will be an interesting test of PIOMAS modelling of the 'new arctic'. Much of the northern Kara was still drifting on feb7.
It has been cold though. Maybe -28C avg since feb11   
https://go.nasa.gov/3cpyIhQ  feb11 and mar11

[Stephan]

I'd rather like to watch the greater picture. If you look at gerontocrat's graph you can clearly see a reduction in volume if you compare the 2000s with the 2010s averages. No doubt that the 2020s finally will lie below the 2010s curve.

[Glen Koehler]

<snip>So what I looked at was the Kara and Laptev volume and thickness data as both seas (especially the Laptev) melted out very early in 2020 and freeze commenced very late. And what do we see?

     
      I think Gero's thickness and volume graphs tell an ominous story for the near-future of the Kara Sea ice. 
     
      From the sketchy data I have, thickness of ASI does not appear to have much effect on melt rate until it gets below 1.5 meter.  But once it gets below 1.0 meter, the melt rate for the same amount of energy input begins to be more than 10% greater than for 2 meter thick ice. 

      The Kara thickness chart shows the annual max thickness declining from ca. 1.6 meters in 2000s to 1.2 in the 2010s.  If that decadal trend continues into the 2020s, the average Kara max thickness would be well below 1.0 and nearing 0.8 meter.  Heading into the melt season with ice that is < 0.8-0.9 meter thick is not the same as going in with 1.2 meter thick ice. 

       This is exacerbated by progressive volume losses.  Between the 2000s and 2010s, the Kara went from not melting out entirely to hitting zero volume for about 6 weeks.  The average max volume went from ca. 1.25 km3 in the 2000s down to ca. 0.95 km3 in the 2010s.  Inevitably, the 2020s average Kara max volume will be even lower.  Carrying even less ice into melt season than the amount that already hits zero by mid-August, compounded by having that ice being of a lesser thickness, means that the Kara is on its way out as a major contributor to ASI for much of the year. 

      The date for the Kara Sea getting down to 0.1 km3 ice shifted from Sept 1. in the 2000s back to mid-July for the 2010s.  I suppose the rate of shift will get slower as the date moves into early July and late June and thus closer to the annual max.  But it also true that any open water in June at the peak of solar insolation is bad news for albedo and increased ocean warming.

       For the refreeze season, the date at which Kara volume heads above 1.0 km3 shifted from Oct. 1 in the 2000s to a month later at Nov. 1 for the 2010s.  Given the cumulative effects of continued warming; with lower volume, thickness, and albedo during the melt season; that shift could continue with refreeze not exceeding 0.1 km3 until December 1 for the 2020s.  The net result would be a Kara Sea almost devoid of ice for July 1 - Dec. 1, and just starting to recover ice until Jan. 1.  If this scenario unfolds, then within the next 5 years, 10 years at most, for 6 months of the year, the Kara Sea will no longer be a significant reservoir of ASI.  It was already ice-free for 3 full months in 2020.

         Losing the Kara as a defensive perimeter for much of the year allows it to join the Greenland and Barents Seas as melt incursion doorways into the heart of the CAB. 
        (Ignore the green BOE text on first chart below, the thing to look at is the upward curving blue line showing the effect of diminishing thickness for increasing melt rate.)

[El Cid]

And there's not your BOE!

gerontocrat, I am disappointed. You are NOT a true believer! 

BTW, I think that more and more Arctic Seas are undergoing Hudsonification (your charts support this) meaning they freeze very late (Nov, even Dec) and then they suddenly melt out quickly (June, July). And I still think that the North Pole region seems amazingly weak that will likely have consequences this year.

[gerontocrat]

If this scenario unfolds, then within the next 5 years, 10 years at most, for 6 months of the year, the Kara Sea will no longer be a significant reservoir of ASI.  It was already ice-free for 3 full months in 2020.

         Losing the Kara as a defensive perimeter for much of the year allows it to join the Greenland and Barents Seas as melt incursion doorways into the heart of the CAB. 
       

Glen, wrong map.
The map you show is the map with NSIDC boundaries. The Wipneus data for volume and area has a much bigger CAB and thus smaller Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Kara seas (though Kara only affected marginally).

[Tor Bejnar]

I really appreciate the Gerontocrats and Glens of this world who attempt citizen-science.  Their writing is much more interesting than reading 'true believer' rants and quips. (even as I enjoy those,  too).  I predict others do to.

As a young student of geology, we were taught the principle of uniformitarianism.  And then we learned about plate tectonics which turned some of the old thinking on its head, creating a new paradigm, a new (more accurate) model for uniformitarianism.  Later I learned a little about the aleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) which again bucks some of the staid principles, providing new fodder to contemplate and understand (and creating a yet-again more accurate model for uniformitarianism).

So when it comes to ASI, part of me wants to say that the scientists who say "the first blue ocean event will be decades away" are probably right, but another part of me wants to say things (atmospheric CO2 concentrations, primarily) are changing so fast the old ways of thinking are leading us astray.  And it is this part of me that appreciates the many ASLR posts that point to ice-related events having always occurred faster than what we thought a decade or two ago.  (Just as 'pre-plate-tectonic' thinking was that parts of the Earth moved up to a centimeter or two per year (averaged over geological time) and now we know places that have been moving apart 8 or 10 cm/year for millions of years.  Reality didn't change, just our understanding of it did.)