I'm with estimates by Crandles and Tor: Another low but not breakout melt season, and the usual pattern of over- and under-estimation. 2012 retains its titles for one more year, but not much longer. The underlying trends are catching up to and will soon be surpassing 2012.
Low loss factors: Negative ENSO burying more heat into the deep ocean with less heat going into the atmosphere; high snow amount in high latitudes, strong second half to freezing season (I think?); relatively high maximum Extent and Volume values at start of melt season (compared to most recent years, not historical); extra ice in some traditional earlier melting regions may delay transition to open water in those areas, thus increasing seasonal albedo; slower losses because thin ice melts more slowly than thick ice, and because there is less thick ice to lose via Fram export.
High loss factors: Craptastic condition of ice by end of 2020; slow start to freezing season; southward shift of center of thick ice (according to HYCOM, but PIOMAS thickness map update today does not seem to fit that, I'm confused); polar cell disruption allowing warm wet air masses from lower latitudes to migrate into the Arctic; continued GHG emissions; aerosol decline; recent emergence of Atlantification warm water intrusion pushing on thermocline in Laptev, ESS and Chukchi; continuation of the Beaufort transition from ice nursery to ice graveyard; continued progression of ice thinning reaching the point at which melt rate increases due to qualitative and mechanical changes; further weakening of the Nares ice arch and de-plugging of the relatively narrow ice lanes of the Nares strait, McClure strait and elsewhere in the CAA; continued hot air bloviation by politicians.
Wild card -- some weird interaction that nobody saw coming or even thought was possible that develops rather suddenly.
It would interesting to see other factors I forgot or don't know about. Plus posts/links to predictions by actual Arctic scientists or by some of the more grizzled and august ASIF members along with the reasoning behind them. The dart tosses by the rest of us are also interesting. With enough guesses, somebody will be spot on.