Author Topic: The 2021 melting season (Read 515510 times)

Stephan · « **Reply #1200 on:** June 15, 2021, 10:43:42 AM »

In contrast to the very vulnerable ice in the SW part of the Kara Sea the sea ice in the NE half of Kara appears to be very "white" (→ solid, thick, resistant (?)) in Aluminium's gif.

By the way, a big thank you to Aluminium for the regular updates and gifs

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1201 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:01:33 PM »

Quote from: Stephan on June 15, 2021, 10:43:42 AM

In contrast to the very vulnerable ice in the SW part of the Kara Sea the sea ice in the NE half of Kara appears to be very "white" (→ solid, thick, resistant (?)) in Aluminium's gif.

Worldview agrees. But slowly, over the past 2-3 days, the ice in the NE Kara is beginning to look more generally blue-gray.

June 8 -15 , Kara Sea

7 Mb file. Click to animate.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1202 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:52:06 PM »

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Saw this one coming from miles away yesterday...

Still 5 days out, but look at the heat it's bringing to the CAB...

On the other hand... It's that time of year where cyclones are starting to block out the sun at near peak insolation...

Sunshine is forecasted on the very long term unreliable forecast, but right now, cyclones and the clouds they bring are good!

FishOutofWater · « **Reply #1203 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:57:09 PM »

Prevailing winds pile up Kara sea ice on the Severnaya Zemlya islands. That ice is always the last ice to melt out in the Kara sea. Moreover, snowfall persists longer on the adjacent region of Siberia because of elevated topography and higher amounts of total cold season snowfall.

However, that area will melt out because the ice free Kara sea waters warm up and currents take that warm water towards the islands. There's also a lot of warm water that flows into the Kara sea in July from Siberian rivers. This happens every melt season of late. ....

Looking at the weather models there's a big difference between the European models and the American models. The European ECMWF and EPS models advect a lot more heat to the Arctic ocean than the American models do. The GFS and CFS models put persistent low pressure near the pole for the next week but the European models put the storms on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, advecting large amounts of heat across the Pacific side of the Arctic sea ice.

The European model results agree with general climatology and persistence. I think that they have the most probable solutions.

Aluminium · « **Reply #1204 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:58:19 PM »

This heatwave from Siberia may affect most of potentially survivable ice. We did not have a 2012-like fall. However, under solstice a lot of things may happen. The latest snow cover anomaly is -1 477 428 km². Is there any chance to get favorable conditions for the ice with so much energy around? Even with "cloudy" cyclonic weather, warm air and rain can eat albedo. Is it less important than slightly reduced sunlight?

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1205 on:** June 15, 2021, 04:43:45 PM »

Quote from: Aluminium on June 15, 2021, 02:58:19 PM

This heatwave from Siberia may affect most of potentially survivable ice. We did not have a 2012-like fall. However, under solstice a lot of things may happen. The latest snow cover anomaly is -1 477 428 km². Is there any chance to get favorable conditions for the ice with so much energy around? Even with "cloudy" cyclonic weather, warm air and rain can eat albedo. Is it less important than slightly reduced sunlight?

It doesn't look good. But at least the forecast surface wind speeds and temperatures are somewhat less terrifying... And, as always, it depends on how long these systems last.

As to sunshine vs significant rain, hour compared to hour, my experience and instincts are that rain would be worse. Happy to be corrected.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1206 on:** June 15, 2021, 04:58:26 PM »

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 04:43:45 PM

As to sunshine vs significant rain, hour compared to hour, my experience and instincts are that rain would be worse. Happy to be corrected.

This would be a very interesting debate that I would love to learn more about...

And don't forget that this JAC Daniels 2021 (I had to do it...

) could create open water as it pushes the ice over the pole outwards with its powerful winds...

Mind you, it's still not certain that this JD will hit as predicted! So for now, it's just a theoretical debate...

I'll try to shut up now... It's alcohol day... $:-\$

JAC = June Arctic Cyclone
Something I invented last year as some may remember...

I'm Danny...

pearscot · « **Reply #1207 on:** June 15, 2021, 05:59:24 PM »

LOL I forgot about about the JAC Daniels!! Good times. I send a drink your way, Freegrass!

I still can't figure out wtf is going on this melting season or if it's going to just be another year similar to 2015-2020. At this point I don't think any records will be broken, but time will tell. The heat being pulled into the arctic over the ESS is quite impressive. It's just wild to me how so much open water in the Laptev/ESS has led to such thick and lasting landfast ice. I suspect it will melt out at some point, but it's proving to be more resilient than I thought. Clearly there's so much more to the system I don't understand.

On the other side of the arctic, it's a warm and rainy day in barrow. I think the next day with some strong northernly winds may be enough to kick this ice off the coast.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1208 on:** June 15, 2021, 06:22:08 PM »

Quote from: pearscot on June 15, 2021, 05:59:24 PM

LOL I forgot about about the JAC Daniels!! Good times. I send a drink your way, Freegrass!

I still can't figure out wtf is going on this melting season or if it's going to just be another year similar to 2015-2020. At this point I don't think any records will be broken, but time will tell. The heat being pulled into the arctic over the ESS is quite impressive. It's just wild to me how so much open water in the Laptev/ESS has led to such thick and lasting landfast ice. I suspect it will melt out at some point, but it's proving to be more resilient than I thought. Clearly there's so much more to the system I don't understand.

Amazing... I was actually thinking about you when I wrote that!

I remember we had a few good laughs about it back then...

About this melting season; It'll be an interesting one for sure on the Atlantic side, and along the CAAAGC. Otherwise known as the mega crack... It's breaking records this year with its lack of thick MYI, and so it should get very interesting there this season...

The Laptev bite is also quite impressive this year... But the open water there is surrounded by very thick ice - if I can trust HYCOM and what I saw during winter...

I believe I can! HYCOM sure has it's problems... but give me another tool that's better! And I'll shut up about it... At the end of this season, we'll know how good (or bad) HYCOM really is...

If an idiot like me can figure out the Arctic ice by only using HYCOM and Nullschool, I will have proven my point...

Not sure what my point is... I'm drunk now...

oren · « **Reply #1209 on:** June 15, 2021, 06:35:57 PM »

Folks, please recall the freeform chatter thread for the, well, chatter, as pleasant as it is. It's mixed with season comments so I've left it in, but no more please.

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1210 on:** June 15, 2021, 08:36:41 PM »

Quote from: Freegrass on June 15, 2021, 04:58:26 PM

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 04:43:45 PM
As to sunshine vs significant rain, hour compared to hour, my experience and instincts are that rain would be worse. Happy to be corrected.
This would be a very interesting debate that I would love to learn more about...

I would too. Especially since my back-of-the-envelope calcs indicate I would be very wrong if rainfall were, for example, at 2 C and falling at a reasonable 1cm/hour vs ice at an albedo of 0.6 and insolation at 400 W/m2. In terms of this crude analysis, which just takes into account energy that is delivered, by my reckoning insolation wins easily, by more than a factor of 5. Maybe this question is discussed in another thread. Does anyone know?

Freegrass · « **Reply #1211 on:** June 15, 2021, 09:04:44 PM »

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 08:36:41 PM

Quote from: Freegrass on June 15, 2021, 04:58:26 PM
Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 04:43:45 PM
As to sunshine vs significant rain, hour compared to hour, my experience and instincts are that rain would be worse. Happy to be corrected.
This would be a very interesting debate that I would love to learn more about...
I would too. Especially since my back-of-the-envelope calcs indicate I would be very wrong if rainfall were, for example, at 2 C and falling at a reasonable 1cm/hour vs ice at an albedo of 0.6 and insolation at 400 W/m2. Insolation wins easily, by more than a factor of 5. Maybe this is discussed in another thread. Does anyone know?

I had a feeling the sun would be worse... It's only logical my dear Watson...
I may have messed up the quotes... $:-\$

NeilT · « **Reply #1212 on:** June 15, 2021, 09:17:25 PM »

I think it is relevant in terms of calculating projected loss of sea ice during the melting season then circling back and doing an analysis of the projections against the observed reality. Bit of work there though and you would need a hell of a lot of data.

You might want to factor in ice thickness too. If the ice is thin enough and insolation is strong enough, the heat goes right through and warms the sea below. Causing bottom melt to add to the direct top melt.

Then there is the desalination effect of rain plus ice shelf run off and that is impacted by the age of the ice. The older the ice, the less salty.

Storms will affect the salinity by mixing but also can cause ekman pumping to bring up warmer salty water from the depths. Depending on how violent it is.

The actual formulae are quite involved but I know that a lot of work has been done on it here.

Jim Hunt has been keeping up with the buoy tracking, all my links are long expired. But there is quite a lot of data there to see how the ice is being affected by the elements.

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

Good luck if you are interested.

NeilT · « **Reply #1213 on:** June 15, 2021, 09:37:22 PM »

Just FYI, whilst the Barrow site is no longer active, there is an interesting document which shows the analysis of melting, the mechanics and how it impacted the breakup of the landfast ice.

You can find it here.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup/Petrich_etal_2012_Barrow_break-up.pdf

Pages 33 onwards are useful if you don't want to trawl through a log of scientific formulae.

WildFit · « **Reply #1214 on:** June 15, 2021, 10:17:37 PM »

Quote from: Stephan on June 15, 2021, 09:25:04 PM

Jim Pettit has updated his stepwise Arctic Sea Ice Extent Maximum and Minimum day chart with data from 2021.
As of today 2021 looks more like the slower year 2017 than leading years like 2016 or 2020.
The link: http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_nsidc_max_min_plus_step_days.png

To make it short, this is extent. Take the exact same extent (hypothetically) and reduce volume/thickness by 10% (hypothetically) and/or reduce area by 10% (hypothetcially again).

Would you then care as to how extent looks like?

This year I call a big trap year, looks like normal somehow but taking a visual, tells some of us that something is way different/wrong.

Ok, the weather could once of a sudden switch to cooler than average and the naked extent numbers would proof rigth without being right but if the above average temps across big parts of the arctic prevail, this is not foreboding well IMO.

Aluminium · « **Reply #1215 on:** June 15, 2021, 10:20:53 PM »

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 08:36:41 PM

I would too. Especially since my back-of-the-envelope calcs indicate I would be very wrong if rainfall were, for example, at 2 C and falling at a reasonable 1cm/hour vs ice at an albedo of 0.6 and insolation at 400 W/m2. In terms of this crude analysis, which just takes into account energy that is delivered, by my reckoning insolation wins easily, by more than a factor of 5. Maybe this question is discussed in another thread. Does anyone know?

Albedo is not constant. Insolation is powerless if something else don't lower albedo. Even in July 2020 the ice withstood. The ice radiates more energy than it can receive from sunlight, especially if albedo is still high.

Paul · « **Reply #1216 on:** June 15, 2021, 10:25:00 PM »

Regarding the upcoming set up, whilst it clear the Atlantic front and the pole area will be cooler and cloudier under a cyclone and the pacific regions will be under high pressure and warmer conditions, in the Beaufort for example positioning of the high could be crucial in terms of how the ice reacts to the weather. For example the latest ECM has the centre of the high nearer the CAA so this promotes warm winds from Alaska whereas the GFS has the high more on top of the Beaufort so less wind flow and the flow could come in from the ice so limiting temperature increases despite the air above being quite warm. The other question is how long any troughing remains in the ESS, if it gets fades out quickly then the ridging from Siberia joins up from the high over Alaska/Beaufort and a large high pressure system develops but if the troughing stays strong enough then the ESS may escape to a certain extent. No doubt though that the Laptev sea will get very warm air hitting it with potentially strong southerly winds so we may see even more of a retreat here.

So another 2 or 3 days of fairly favourable conditions before things turn more unfavourable for the ice in theory.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #1217 on:** June 15, 2021, 11:11:31 PM »

Quote from: NeilT on June 15, 2021, 09:17:25 PM

Jim Hunt has been keeping up with the buoy tracking

That's very kind of you Neil. However, whilst I do keep up with the Ice Mass Balance buoys, uniquorn follows all sorts of other ones as well over at:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg311620.html#msg311620

and thereabouts.

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1218 on:** June 15, 2021, 11:40:16 PM »

Quote from: Aluminium on June 15, 2021, 10:20:53 PM

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 15, 2021, 08:36:41 PM
I would too. Especially since my back-of-the-envelope calcs indicate I would be very wrong if rainfall were, for example, at 2 C and falling at a reasonable 1cm/hour vs ice at an albedo of 0.6 and insolation at 400 W/m2. In terms of this crude analysis, which just takes into account energy that is delivered, by my reckoning insolation wins easily, by more than a factor of 5. Maybe this question is discussed in another thread. Does anyone know?
Albedo is not constant. Insolation is powerless if something else don't lower albedo. Even in July 2020 the ice withstood. The ice radiates more energy than it can receive from sunlight, especially if albedo is still high.

Agreed. I was taking the approximate median value as quoted by the NSIDC (they state that sea ice varies approximately between 0.5 and 0.7 in albedo)
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html

Freegrass · « **Reply #1219 on:** June 15, 2021, 11:49:12 PM »

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

I couldn't resist anymore... I've been looking at this forecast all evening, and I've never seen anything like it before... Siberian heat/energy/moisture is reaching all the way to the CAA...

A cold front is preventing this cyclone from exploding...
I love this forecast!
So interesting...

I should really learn more about fluid mechanics, because this is just marvelous!

And it absolutely means nothing! Because it could all be totally different on the next forecast in 30 minutes from now...

But isn't this amazing?
Something's brewing!
But where is all this cold air coming from? $:-\$

GO JAC D'!

PS: Still looking for a moderator who can put words to my animations...
I need to learn!
Are there really no weather people here who can help me explain? $:-\$

be cause · « **Reply #1220 on:** June 16, 2021, 12:37:58 AM »

the latest 18.00 gfs run has a mid-summer blizzard dumping a heap of lake effect snow SE of Hudson bay just as the last lying snow on the Arctic sea ice disappears . b.c.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1221 on:** June 16, 2021, 02:00:24 AM »

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Don't say A without saying B...
But I have a feeling this ain't over yet!

Stupid cold air...

Good night!

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1222 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:16:24 AM »

The gradually changing Beaufort Sea. June 1-15 Ice getting blue-gray, albedo dropping.

7Mb file Click to animate

Glen Koehler · « **Reply #1223 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:33:44 AM »

You know it's full speed melt season when the DMI 80N temperature gets above 0C.

Pagophilus · « **Reply #1224 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:39:17 AM »

Sv-FJL gap at right of frame. June 1-15

Floes rushed for this gap June 1-12, but have mostly just lolled about since then. As others have noted, floes are breaking apart as they approach and enter the gap.

9Mb file. Click to animate.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1225 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:40:30 AM »

Quote from: Glen Koehler on June 16, 2021, 03:33:44 AM

You know it's full speed melt season when the DMI 80N temperature gets above 0C.

There's no way this graph can be right! We've hit near positive temperatures on the CAB for a while now. Yet this graph was telling us it was still freezing? There's no way they got it right this year!

Something must be seriously malfunctioning with it after their crash...
No way the temps were this "normal"!

oren · « **Reply #1226 on:** June 16, 2021, 04:41:43 AM »

Please recall this measure is highly biased towards the Pole, due to its weird averaging method. No reason to assume data is wrong though.

oren · « **Reply #1227 on:** June 16, 2021, 05:24:57 AM »

Regarding the discussion of what kind of weather is good or bad for the ice:
* Current and forecast weather and its effect on the current melting season belong here
* Some of the issues belong in the "Basic Melting Physics" thread
* It would appear a new thread could be useful with a subject in the spirit of "Weather patterns good or bad for the ice"

BornFromTheVoid · « **Reply #1228 on:** June 16, 2021, 08:08:08 AM »

Quote from: Pagophilus on June 16, 2021, 03:16:24 AM

The gradually changing Beaufort Sea. June 1-15 Ice getting blue-gray, albedo dropping.

7Mb file Click to animate

Impressive sediment plumes flowing out from under the ice around the Mackenzie delta too.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #1229 on:** June 16, 2021, 08:16:18 AM »

Quote from: Freegrass on June 16, 2021, 03:40:30 AM

Quote from: Glen Koehler on June 16, 2021, 03:33:44 AM
You know it's full speed melt season when the DMI 80N temperature gets above 0C.
There's no way this graph can be right! We've hit near positive temperatures on the CAB for a while now. Yet this graph was telling us it was still freezing? There's no way they got it right this year!

Something must be seriously malfunctioning with it after their crash...
No way the temps were this "normal"!

It's a daily mean temperature. Other than the buoys there are few reporting weather stations.

Here are 2 from the coastal top of Greenland (83N) and Russia (78N). The avg column has been mostly blue, until recently.

grixm · « **Reply #1230 on:** June 16, 2021, 09:45:53 AM »

Big crack in the Laptev sea.

NeilT · « **Reply #1231 on:** June 16, 2021, 12:20:20 PM »

Quote from: Jim Hunt on June 15, 2021, 11:11:31 PM

That's very kind of you Neil. However, whilst I do keep up with the Ice Mass Balance buoys, uniquorn follows all sorts of other ones as well over at:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg311620.html#msg311620

and thereabouts.

Thanks Jim, I will go and look. I lost track of this some time ago and time is, as always, limited.

anaphylaxia · « **Reply #1232 on:** June 16, 2021, 01:27:42 PM »

Extensive cracks appear in the CAA, in the Viscount Melville Sound. It has appeared in the last week, before that it was pristine snow covered ice.

Frivolousz21 · « **Reply #1233 on:** June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM »

This is definitely not a record year.

Would take unprecedented weather the rest of the way.

That isn't happening.

We are in the midst of a long slow decades slow decline.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #1234 on:** June 16, 2021, 02:54:16 PM »

Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM

This is definitely not a record year.

Can I quote you on that Friv?!

Shared Humanity · « **Reply #1235 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:07:06 PM »

Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM

This is definitely not a record year.

Would take unprecedented weather the rest of the way.

That isn't happening.

We are in the midst of a long slow decades slow decline.

Still amazed at how awesomely average melt has been so far.

oren · « **Reply #1236 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:37:23 PM »

While the ESS, Laptev and the Atlantic sector of the CAB are in bad shape, the Beaufort, Chukchi, the CAA and the western CAB have relatively high area/extent and have enjoyed relatively benign conditions thus far, leading to rather late albedo drops.
Obviously with half the ice in good conditions a record will be hard to come by, though the weather can bring surprises.
However, the unknown factor is the amount of damage sustained in the CAB by last year's prolonged GAAC, also hinted by the low PIOMAS CAB volume, and exacerbated by the persistent export regime, first to the Fram and later to the Barents. A collapse of half the CAB ice could have a significant effect on the melting season, but is quite impossible to predict properly.

Freegrass · « **Reply #1237 on:** June 16, 2021, 03:48:34 PM »

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Large GiFS!

The arctic basin is spilt in a hot zone, and a cold zone, with lots of clouds to block out the sun...
I can also see more ice stacking up along the Ellesmere shore with this forecast.

Back to suffering from my hangover now... $:-\$

grixm · « **Reply #1238 on:** June 16, 2021, 04:11:46 PM »

Quote from: anaphylaxia on June 16, 2021, 01:27:42 PM

Extensive cracks appear in the CAA, in the Viscount Melville Sound. It has appeared in the last week, before that it was pristine snow covered ice.

Looks like these are not new cracks, they've been like that for a long time, hidden by the snow above. It's visible on the attached radar image from almost a month ago.

What probably happened is that when the snow melted, the meltwater all neatly pooled into these frozen cracks, because the ice surface in them were lower and smoother than the rest.

Paul · « **Reply #1239 on:** June 16, 2021, 04:43:06 PM »

Quote from: Shared Humanity on June 16, 2021, 03:07:06 PM

Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM
This is definitely not a record year.

Would take unprecedented weather the rest of the way.

That isn't happening.

We are in the midst of a long slow decades slow decline.

Still amazed at how awesomely average melt has been so far.

What do you mean by how awesomely average? Melt has been rapid in the Laptev sea and extent drops are increasing and we are slowly but surely edging towards the lowest extents. The weather has been warm at times with melt ponding coming quite early after another year of early snowcover melt.

If the warmth in the Laptev continues as its forecast too, SSTS are going to rise even further and will no doubt play a role how far north the ice edge will get. The ESS is more resilient this year which may help somewhat but my early season optimism has reduced somewhat and whilst I don't think we will reach record lows, another year of fast melt and being near or at the bottom of the pack is certainly possible.

anaphylaxia · « **Reply #1240 on:** June 16, 2021, 05:10:40 PM »

Quote from: grixm on June 16, 2021, 04:11:46 PM

Quote from: anaphylaxia on June 16, 2021, 01:27:42 PM
Extensive cracks appear in the CAA, in the Viscount Melville Sound. It has appeared in the last week, before that it was pristine snow covered ice.

Looks like these are not new cracks, they've been like that for a long time, hidden by the snow above. It's visible on the attached radar image from almost a month ago.

What probably happened is that when the snow melted, the meltwater all neatly pooled into these frozen cracks, because the ice surface in them were lower and smoother than the rest.

Sry, maybe jumped the gun on that. No cracking 'till the ice starts to move.

Aluminium · « **Reply #1241 on:** June 16, 2021, 05:12:55 PM »

Once we'll get below 2012 without extreme weather. Looking at my old calculations, in 2028 average weather would be enough, 2024 is the most probable year for the first case, 2021 has 10% probability. Given observed conditions, I think, 2021 has lower chance now, maybe 3-5%. Still, we are closer to 2028 than 2012.

Quote from: Aluminium on April 02, 2019, 10:27:49 AM

Based on minimums 1979-2018 and linear regression, I calculated probabilities to get minimum below 2012 in 2019-2035 (blue dots). Also cumulative probability (red dots) and probability to get minimum below 2012 first time that year (green dots).

thejazzmarauder · « **Reply #1242 on:** June 16, 2021, 05:29:01 PM »

Quote from: Aluminium on June 16, 2021, 05:12:55 PM

Once we'll get below 2012 without extreme weather. Looking at my old calculations, in 2028 average weather would be enough, 2024 is the most probable year for the first case, 2021 has 10% probability. Given observed conditions, I think, 2021 has lower chance now, maybe 3-5%. Still, we are closer to 2028 than 2012.

Quote from: Aluminium on April 02, 2019, 10:27:49 AM
Based on minimums 1979-2018 and linear regression, I calculated probabilities to get minimum below 2012 in 2019-2035 (blue dots). Also cumulative probability (red dots) and probability to get minimum below 2012 first time that year (green dots).

Given that the solar maximum will likely occur sometime in 2025, the mid-20s could be rough for the ice.

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER · « **Reply #1243 on:** June 16, 2021, 05:45:42 PM »

It will be interesting to see how that lines up with the ENSO as well, because a strong El Niño in that temporal vicinity could prove to be a damaging compounding effect of baseline conditions

oren · « **Reply #1244 on:** June 16, 2021, 06:47:11 PM »

Sea ice movement and export ("TPD" on steroids) continues unabated. The damage increases with persistence of the pattern. Thanks to OSI-SAF.
Surface melt (as approximated by SMOS non-beige pixels) is rather widespread but not as widespread as 2012 and 2019. The weighted chart (taking into account the other pixels according to their colors) shows 2021 smack in the middle. Thanks to Steven.

Juan C. García · « **Reply #1245 on:** June 16, 2021, 06:49:52 PM »

Quote from: Shared Humanity on June 16, 2021, 03:07:06 PM

Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM
This is definitely not a record year.

Would take unprecedented weather the rest of the way.

That isn't happening.

We are in the midst of a long slow decades slow decline.

Still amazed at how awesomely average melt has been so far.

Talking metaphorically, I think that the Arctic is walking on the edge but not falling. That does not mean that it will be safe on this melting season. I do not expect that will be below 2012, but the Arctic can still bring us surprises. So, I do not think that we should assume that it will continue to be a slow melting season.

In extent it is 4th lowest now, according to JAXA. If we look a little closer, we can say that it is 3rd lowest, even with 2012 and 2011 on that position. Not the lowest, but it is bad enough.

I am just in a “wait and see” mood.

oren · « **Reply #1246 on:** June 16, 2021, 07:25:34 PM »

The eastern Laptev coast is seeing very high temps. The local fast ice which has thus far mostly avoided breakup or visible damage*, except meltwater accumulation and drainage, will likely experience havoc in the next few days.

Click to animate 2-week period, some cloudy days skipped.

*Edit: Some breakup visible along the margins. Also coastal ice is melting at the mouth of the Olenek river.

Shared Humanity · « **Reply #1247 on:** June 16, 2021, 10:55:33 PM »

Quote from: Juan C. García on June 16, 2021, 06:49:52 PM

Quote from: Shared Humanity on June 16, 2021, 03:07:06 PM
Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 16, 2021, 02:31:03 PM
This is definitely not a record year.

Would take unprecedented weather the rest of the way.

That isn't happening.

We are in the midst of a long slow decades slow decline.

Still amazed at how awesomely average melt has been so far.

Talking metaphorically, I think that the Arctic is walking on the edge but not falling. That does not mean that it will be safe on this melting season. I do not expect that will be below 2012, but the Arctic can still bring us surprises. So, I do not think that we should assume that it will continue to be a slow melting season.

In extent it is 4th lowest now, according to JAXA. If we look a little closer, we can say that it is 3rd lowest, even with 2012 and 2011 on that position. Not the lowest, but it is bad enough.

I am just in a “wait and see” mood.

Everybody seems to have jumped over the "awesomely" in this comment. In February, I was expecting a disastrous melt season. Everyday I visit the area and extent thread expecting to see century drops. Everyday I see drops that are tracking very close to average. I still expect this to change. I cannot understand how it couldn't.

I guess what I am trying to say is I don't know anything.

Frivolousz21 · « **Reply #1248 on:** June 17, 2021, 12:26:20 AM »

That vortex is huge on the Atlantic side.

The 12z Euro shows it blow up. That may or may not happen. But that will happen from time to time when you by don't have a Greenland ridge.

The 12z Euro vortex is a a cold canopy of positive for the ice.

Even with the warmth before that.

That will stop the melt season big time.

ArcTickTock · « **Reply #1249 on:** June 17, 2021, 03:56:48 AM »

Just thought I would post a little graph that I think shows an interesting phenomenon. Note the variability in Arctic sea ice extent through the early months in recent years, the variability late in the melt season and the convergence in mid June where we are now. To me this clearly illustrates how reliable predictions of September minimums cannot be based primarily on early season loss of sea ice extent ( prior to mid June ).

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Author Topic: The 2021 melting season (Read 515510 times)