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Author Topic: But, but, but, China....  (Read 136880 times)

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #550 on: January 14, 2020, 10:34:47 PM »
The thought had occurred to me gerontocrat...  8)

Ken, it comes down to deliverable megatonnage.  Even France, at #4 doesn't make the MAD club.

The rest are just playing games.

Better to use it for power generation but once the genie is out of the bottle, you can't put it back.

According to this source, the US, UK, France and China have more weapons that the UK.  And with an estimate of 90, this seems to undercount Isreal, which supposedly has between 200 and 400 weapons.

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat



And with 160 and 140 weapons respectively, I'm pretty sure Pakistan and India could wipe each other out and trigger a nuclear winter for the rest of us.

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #551 on: January 15, 2020, 07:20:04 AM »
Scientists did the calculations - India and Pakistan could easily trigger a nuclear winter.

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

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Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #552 on: January 15, 2020, 10:38:36 AM »
rboyd:
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #553 on: January 15, 2020, 01:13:06 PM »

And with 160 and 140 weapons respectively, I'm pretty sure Pakistan and India could wipe each other out and trigger a nuclear winter for the rest of us.

Yep, I fell into that trap and I have been trained so have no excuse.

The US, UK and Russia have 3 stage weapons. Our tridents can carry up to 8 455kt re-entry vehicles and each sub carries up to 16 missiles.   We have 4 subs.

France only has 2 stage weapons and their deliverable megatonnage is correspondingly smaller per weapon.

One sub is overkill as each missile can kill 8 cities.

It is why I get a bit irked when the UK is talked about as a "small" country.  It is a massive economy, a massive mitter of CO2 and a country you do not want to force into a corner militarily.

Sorry for going off topic but it is something that tends to underestimate the work the UK has to do to in order to reduce world emissions.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

kassy

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #554 on: January 15, 2020, 03:44:42 PM »
The UK has to do what the UK has to do just like all other nations.
There is a widget on the ASIB showing 2,8 billion hiroshima atomic bombs of warming since 1998.


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The wildlife in the exclusion zone around Chernobyl is doing very well.

In the year after the tsunami i visited Lanka and i ended up at the Elephant Orphanage. They had an elephant with a prosthetic limb because it stepped on a land mine. So i talked to one of the people working there. Isn´t it sad that we put down land mines that hurt these elephants?

The answer was: It is only because of the fighting in that area that the actual habitat still exists.
You trade a limb for the herd...
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

NeilT

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #555 on: January 16, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »
There is a widget on the ASIB showing 2,8 billion hiroshima atomic bombs of warming since 1998.

I know, I remember Neven adding it.  I remember Neven starting the site.  For a long time before that, it had been quite difficult keeping track of all the information.

I started the off topic because so many in the UK think the UK is a small country.  In terms of economy, power and influence in the word, it is not. Also, in terms of CO2 emissions, the UK is not small.

These people are voters and they vote for action based on their perceptions.

If they don't perceive that the UK is a big part of the problem, they will not vote for action.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

gerontocrat

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #556 on: January 18, 2020, 02:12:29 PM »
Meanwhile, soon China will have fewer people to nuke.

Note the response of the authorities to the low birthate is to encourage fecundity.
I thought AI and robots wold mean less labour required -seems not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/17/chinas-birthrate-falls-to-lowest-level-despite-push-for-more-babies
China's birthrate falls to lowest level despite push for more babies
Efforts by policymakers to bolster the population after decades of strict family planning seem to be failing

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China’s birthrate has fallen to the lowest level since the Communist country was founded in 1949, in a sign that efforts to head off a demographic crisis have so far failed.

There were 14.6 million births in China in 2019, a drop of about 500,000 from the year before and the third year in a row that the number of births fallen, according to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics published on Friday. It was the lowest number in seven decades, with the exception of 1961, the last year of a famine that left tens of millions dead.

The birthrate for last year, at 10.48 live births per 1,000 people, was the lowest since 1949. By comparison, the rate in England and Wales was 11.1 last year, the lowest since records started in 1938. Singapore’s birthrate, one of the lowest in the world, is 8.9 per 1,000 people. Niger, with one of the highest birthrates in the world, saw 46.5 births per 1,000 people in 2017, according to the World Bank.

....many families have still chosen not to have more children, citing the high costs of school, housing and medical care. Others said the energy required to ensure their children can compete in modern Chinese society was too exhausting. Divorce rates have increased and more women were marrying later or not at all.

....fertility rates dropped from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to about 1.6 in the late 1990s. The replacement level for a population is 2.1.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #557 on: January 18, 2020, 03:25:49 PM »
Finally some good news, and of course TPTB find it problematic. God forbid that there will ever be even a slight drop in population.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #558 on: January 25, 2020, 10:02:30 AM »

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #559 on: January 26, 2020, 12:04:19 AM »
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is basically a planned small-scale nuclear winter, just without the bombs and nuclear fallout - just the sun blocking particles in the stratosphere. The research backgrounds of nuclear winter and climate change are very much intertwined.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #560 on: January 26, 2020, 02:23:34 AM »
^^
Is anyone talking about what effect SRM will have on solar installations?
Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #561 on: January 26, 2020, 02:26:35 AM »
The reduction in the solar radiation tat gets through to the Earth's surface will be in the 1-4% range, at the most so not a big impact on solar installations.

TerryM

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #562 on: January 26, 2020, 02:35:24 AM »
Thanks!
I'd feared it was much more.


Terry

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #563 on: January 26, 2020, 02:36:18 AM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-installations-to-slow-as-subsidy-cuts-bite-executive-idUSKCN1VR08R

Backed up by this report:

China’s market in transition

Coal prices could fall, reducing the solar prices required to meet grid parity pricing.

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At the same time, the majority of provincial, city or industrial-zone support policies will terminate either in 2019 or by 2020 at the latest. Equally impactful will be the introduction of a base price + floating mechanism for the coal benchmark price, from Jan. 1, 2020. Accordingly, the coal benchmark can fluctuate by -15% and +10% annually. A decline of the local coal benchmark price by 15% could consequently challenge the competitiveness of grid-parity projects, and eventually may lead to delays or even the cancellation of such projects planned for next year

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In short, it has been a rather eventful year to date as far as the changes in China’s solar PV policy landscape are concerned. AECEA’s full-year demand assessment for 2019 is 20-24 GW, with a 2020 demand forecast of about 23-31 GW

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12/30/chinas-market-in-transition/

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #564 on: January 26, 2020, 02:40:06 AM »
Without the energy from the Sun the Earth's average temperature would be below 0 F, instead of plus 57 F right now, so we don't have to block that much of the Sun's energy to knock temperatures down by a degree or so.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/what-if-the-sun-disappeared-earth-video_n_2999693?ri18n=true

blumenkraft

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #565 on: January 27, 2020, 10:14:12 AM »
"damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another .." - be cause

Shared Humanity

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #566 on: January 27, 2020, 04:25:07 PM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.


Definitely not good news but when you compare this to the total U.S. installed capacity of 71.3GW, it still is a hefty number.

The U.S. installed 2.6GW in 2019.

https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight

rboyd

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #567 on: January 27, 2020, 08:53:47 PM »
Shared Humanity, talk about setting the bar low!

Ken Feldman

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #568 on: January 27, 2020, 11:19:28 PM »
China solar installations to slow as subsidy cuts bite: executive

Looks like China will install about 25GW of solar this year, which is a very large reduction from the previous years 40+, even bigger on a cumulative installed growth level (could be as low as a 14% growth rate). If that stays the same, as proposed in the article, then installed capacity will only double in 5 years - not enough to stop increases in Chinese fossil fuel use.


Definitely not good news but when you compare this to the total U.S. installed capacity of 71.3GW, it still is a hefty number.

The U.S. installed 2.6GW in 2019.

https://www.seia.org/us-solar-market-insight

That was in the third Quarter only.  From your linked article.

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The U.S. installed 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity in Q3 2019 to reach 71.3 GW of total installed capacity, enough to power 13.5 million American homes. Residential solar saw its best quarter in history in Q3, and the utility-scale solar pipeline now stands at a record 45.5 GW in Q2. Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years.


Shared Humanity

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Re: But, but, but, China....
« Reply #569 on: January 28, 2020, 04:36:58 PM »
Thank you for the correction. Should have read the article more carefully. Still a pathetic number for the richest country in the world.