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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #850 on: January 31, 2024, 01:20:08 AM »
Sig, Our US conventional oil supplies have been in decline for years, most of our shale basins are in decline.
A huge portion of the US public is in denial and thinks we can maintain economic growth and our current oil powered society for many many more years, decades more without any need to switch to solar or wind.
 So there is no problem with oil and the real problem is liberals their electric cars and all the troubles of the world caused by liberals, like immigration.
 It isn’t just MAGA , it is a major portion of our fellow Americans who think everything is just fine and money spent on renewables( especially tax money ) is wasted.
 We don’t have town halls and talk about our divisions in our society,  so acting out with road rage is just the tip of the iceberg.
 Just wait until the Permian Basin starts it’s inevitable decline . That will mark when our divisions go tilt.

Bruce, it certainly seems that way, much of the time.

Trump recently told advisers that if he wins the 2024 election, he wants to impose a 60% tariff on all imports from China.  This will thrill MAGA Republicans and auto workers who act out because deep down they are terrified that EVs, and particularly Chinese EVs, will be the end of their jobs.

But US manufacturers depend on China suppliers.
< China does not pay this tariff, US importers like myself pay it, and then I raise prices on US customers to cover it.  If I didn't I would go out of business. 

And if that tariff did happen, China would retaliate with its own, and the OEMs’ China market, which they can’t afford to lose, will disappear.
 
1/28/24, https://x.com/leadingreport/status/1751686127952498821
 
1/28/24, https://x.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1751754449977229781

 
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan and longtime EV owner (who currently drives a Ford Mach-E) noted that 60% of US EV factories are in Red States.  It will take a little time, but people who work in those factories, people who see the power benefits, the cost benefits compared to filling up at the pump, will take a different view as EV prices become equal or less than ICE.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/PXAxEZ2K4H  2 min.

Adults carry emotional baggage that kids do not….
 
Got flipped off in the cybertruck today lol ➡️ pic.twitter.com/7HRMD82fC0 
 
Officially the cutest Sentry Mode footage my Cybertruck has ever taken ➡️ pic.twitter.com/ZXtAEpxegP 

Yet this Texas Facebook poster celebrated her Cybertruck delivery:
Quote
“Yeehaa! Picked up our Cybertuck today 🤠 Y'all think we are the 1st back county rednecks to get one? What a kick! It's like driving a spaceship 🚀” - Cathy Smith via Cybertruck Facebook Group
➡️ pic.twitter.com/N3CKp3QfE8 
 
Above reactions from: https://x.com/astrojordy/

The transition from horse-transport to cars must have been as equally contentious. But as Tony Seba says, the EV adoption S-curve #autocalypse is almost upon us.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #851 on: February 02, 2024, 12:59:01 PM »
I've wondered for some time why Tesla's FSD uses cameras that restrict themselves to the visible light part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Animals by using parts of the spectrum humans cannot see add to their chances of survival.
Humans use cameras that see infra-red especially at night to find humans and other creatures.

click attached image twice for fullsize.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #852 on: February 02, 2024, 05:33:39 PM »
I've wondered for some time why Tesla's FSD uses cameras that restrict themselves to the visible light part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Animals by using parts of the spectrum humans cannot see add to their chances of survival.
Humans use cameras that see infra-red especially at night to find humans and other creatures. …

Tesla uses IR to monitor the inside of the cabin:
 
Tesla Model S Plaid Has In-Cabin Infrared LEDs, Possibly for Driver Monitoring
https://teslanorth.com/2021/06/19/tesla-model-s-plaid-has-in-cabin-infrared-leds-possibly-for-driver-monitoring/

#highlandmodel3 #tesla also features a infrared interior camera too. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/db4vMu3aC1
1/27/24, https://x.com/16luca/status/1751421766352969951

CyberTruck interior camera. It looks like its infrared like the S/X.
Its also restricted which is interesting. pic.twitter.com/hDJ6tdJbW3
12/13/23, https://x.com/tesla_winston/status/1735101070651932923
 
 
Perhaps, given the illumination that vehicle headlights are required to provide, the three different field-of-view front-facing cameras, along with more advanced image processing, provides adequate (and improving) resolution and motion detection even in the visible spectrum?  I seem to recall that the different cameras use different parts of the spectrum.
 
There’s the “occupancy network” software:
Quote
Along with the removal of USS [UltraSonic Sensors], we simultaneously launched our vision-based occupancy network – currently used in Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta – to replace the inputs generated by USS. With today’s software, this approach gives Autopilot high-definition spatial positioning, longer range visibility and the ability to identify and differentiate between objects. As with many Tesla features, our occupancy network will continue to improve rapidly over time.
https://www.tesla.com/support/transitioning-tesla-vision

The video examples I posted above suggest that FSD already sees more than what humans often see.
 
But, other cars use IR to detect rain, and Tesla does not, which may explain why its “auto wiper problem” remains….
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #853 on: February 04, 2024, 01:01:38 AM »
Quote
Rivian doesn't have an internal camera so you can text and drive all you want and no one cares. The car won't ding at you or anything.
 
In fact, Rivian sent an OTA update to DEACTIVATE the interior camera in older cars, and doesn't even install one in newer vehicles.
1/31/24, https://x.com/dirtytesla/status/1752867035741053360
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/KKZVbxkSHG  23 sec clip of driving a RIvian while holding a phone
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #854 on: March 03, 2024, 07:52:34 PM »
Waymo robotaxis can hit California highways after state approval
Quote
SAN FRANCISCO — California regulators on Friday granted Alphabet’s self-driving car division Waymo permission to expand its robotaxi service to include highways in several Bay Area cities and large swaths of Los Angeles, a massive expansion that comes amid concerns about the impact more driverless cars will have on city streets.

The decision by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) allows the company to deploy its robotaxis on local roads and freeways at speeds up to 65 mph. But Julia Ilina, a Waymo spokesperson, said in a statement that the company plans to take a “careful and incremental approach to expansion” and has “no immediate plans” to expand its robotaxi service to highways.

The ruling still marks a massive expansion for the company, which has been offering its 24/7 robotaxi service in San Francisco and Phoenix for months. The company is testing its cars on freeways in California with a safety driver behind the wheel, but in Phoenix, the tests have no human driver on highways, Ilina said. The company does not currently bring passengers on highways.

Friday’s decision follows sharp opposition from local officials — particularly in San Mateo and Los Angeles counties — who tried halting the expansion, arguing that they should have more power over how, and if, the technology is deployed on their streets. In a November letter to the state commission, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said she worried about the “adverse impacts” the expansion would have.

“In a city that spans 500 square miles, has a population of approximately 4 million people, and contains 7,500 miles of roadways, the risk is exponentially greater,” she wrote.

But the CPUC, which regulates the technology for the state, said in its decision that Waymo has “complied with the requirements” and may expand immediately. Despite the opposition, Waymo also received support from a range of groups in California — including the California Chamber of Commerce and the California Bicycle Coalition.

“CalBike sees autonomous driving technology as an opportunity to improve roadways across California and nationwide,” the coalition said in a statement. “Waymo’s technology has the potential to create a safer roadway environment by removing human error and observing rules of the road — such as speed limits — which many human drivers fail to do.”

Still, the angst around driverless cars is likely to continue in California, where several incidents last month fed public officials’ safety concerns about the vehicles coming to their cities. For example, over several days in February, a Waymo vehicle smashed into a closing gate while exiting the University of Southern California’s campus, and the next day, another car collided with a cyclist in San Francisco.

Then, days later, the company announced a voluntary recall of its software for an incident involving a pickup truck in Phoenix.

None of the incidents resulted in major injuries. …
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/01/waymo-expands-california-los-angeles-highways/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #855 on: March 19, 2024, 01:06:39 PM »
A Ford Mustang Mach-E, apparently on “partial automation,” (Blue Cruise) crashed into a stopped car on the highway, killing the other driver.
 
US agency probes driver assistance system use in fatal Ford crash
Mon, March 18, 2024
Quote
WASHINGTON, March 18 - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Monday it has opened an investigation into a recent Ford Mustang Mach-E fatal crash in San Antonio, Texas, where authorities suspect an advanced driver assistance system was in use.

On Friday, the National Transportation Safety Board opened a separate investigation into the Feb. 24 crash, saying initial information indicated the Ford struck the rear of a Honda CR-V that was stationary in a traffic lane on Interstate Highway 10.
A San Antonio police report said the Ford had "partial automation" engaged at the time of the crash.

NHTSA is opening a special crash investigation into the Fatal Ford accident. The agency typically opens more than 100 special crash investigations annually into emerging technologies and other potential auto safety issues.

Since 2016, NHTSA has opened more than three dozen Tesla special crash investigations where advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot were suspected of being used with 20 crash deaths reported.* This is NHTSA's first special crash probe involving a Ford advanced system.

The police report said the driver of the Honda CR-V, 56-year-old Jeffrey Allen Johnson of Austin, was taken to a hospital and later pronounced dead.

Ford has said its BlueCruise is an advanced hands-free driving system that operates on 97% of U.S. and Canadian highways with no intersections or traffic signals.

The NTSB said it was investigating the crash "due to its continued interest in advanced driver assistance systems and how vehicle operators interact with these technologies."

A Ford spokesperson said the automaker "reported this incident to NHTSA as soon as we were made aware, and we are actively researching all available information. Safety is a top priority for all of us at Ford, and we will collaborate fully with any resulting investigation."
The NTSB has opened several investigations in recent years into advanced driver assistance systems, including Tesla's Autopilot.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-us-agency-probes-driver-210705996.html
 
*Note this does not say that any Tesla automation was found to be at fault, nor that the Tesla driver was at fault.

   —-
The Tesla community has been puzzled recently why YouTuber “Jerry Rig” has come out so vocally against FSD.  He specifically maligns its “hands on wheel” instructions, compared to anything hands-free.  He’s been pushing Ford’s Blue Cruise.  And now we see that Ford is paying for ads featuring him doing so.

Quote
AI DRIVR
hey @ZacksJerryRig if you’re ever in CA let me know, I’d love to show you how much better Consumer Reports’ lowest rated driver assistance software is, compared to BluesClues! 
3/18/24, https://x.com/aidrivr/status/1769812444837208073
⬇️ Image below from:  < pic.twitter.com/FaQq2C0dhc 

    —-
Sandy Munro rode with a Ford engineer a couple years ago to test BlueCruise — and he dinged it particularly for its poor performance around curves.  Apparently that problem has not been solved:
Quote
Ray
Seems Blue Cruise doesn’t work that well even on controlled access highways. @ZacksJerryRig
3/18/24,   https://x.com/ray4tesla/status/1769855612274540973
pic.twitter.com/qZGZVaKmpP  Textpic:
Quote
“@sandmansparadox/836 • 7h ago
I canceled my Blue Cruise subscription because every time my Mach E went around a turn, it would bounce between the lines trying to center itself and then deactivate the blue cruise because it was bouncing to much left to right.
You did not have this issue?”
« Last Edit: March 19, 2024, 01:25:47 PM by Sigmetnow »
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #856 on: March 24, 2024, 06:00:27 PM »
I drove for the first time with Tesla's FSD version 12.3 last night.
For translation: 3 mph = 4.8 kph; 10 mph = 16 kph; 15 mph = 24kph; 25 mph = 40 kph;
                      30 mph = 48 kph; 40 mph = 64 kph; 1/4 mile = 0.4 km
            We drive on the right, so an early and 'lazy' left turn puts us in the oncoming traffic lane.

The bad news: 
1) I 'almost' intervened when it crossed into a double-yellow-line surrounded no car zone which the car crossed to get to the dedicated left turn lane.  (Other drivers regularly do this, but I do so only when stopped cars in the lane prevent me from getting to the turn lane legally - there is a dedicated left-turn light that is only activated when a car is at the turn lane's stop line, and the turn light precedes the straight-ahead light - and the intersection has an appox. 3-minute light cycle.)  I didn't intervene becasue the car did not get into in the on-coming traffic's lane.
2) When moving into a long dedicated right-turn lane, v.12.3 moved half way into the turn lane, then moved a quarter of the way back, then moved fully into the turn lane (no other cars were nearby); v.11 hasn't done this sort of thing for a long time.
3) At a non-intersection where the road takes a sharp right turn (signage, including on the road surface, and a flashing yellow light you'd hit if you went straight), v.12.3 slowed to 3 mph well before the turn.  (I let it do its thing as there was nobody behind me.)  When going the other way on the same road earlier (a sharp left turn), v.12.3 drove appropriately, as v.11 always did (both ways), slowing to about 10 mph.
4) Near my home, it drove off the narrow dirt lane and stopped (still half on the road but heading toward the end of a short hedge that lines the lane); it was going only 3 mph in the speed limit 10 zone before it stopped. (While stopped I 'intervened.')  Under v.11, FSD either jerked back and forth within the lane (obviously uncertain, but proceeding because I had my foot on the accelerator) or, with earlier versions, FSD just disengaged (with the alarm).

The good news:
1) All intersection turns were smooth and well timed.  (One place FSD v.11 always (wanted to do) did a very lazy left turn, getting fully into the on-coming traffic lane at a blind corner, v.12.3 stopped at the stop line, proceeded straight at a crawl until it could 'see' around the corner [then fully stopped briefly - why? there was no other traffic] and then made the turn in a non-lazy manner.)
2) There was no (trying to) getting into dedicated turn lanes when we were going straight.
3) The repeated (under v.11) funky (some indecision) behavior on a very wide driving lane at a railroad crossing went smoothly.
4) The FSD v.11 used to always get in the right lane when a single lane turned into two lanes (regardless of other cars' choices); v.12.3 choose the left lane, which was just fine (both lanes were backed up).
5) The FSD v.11 usually choose the left of two dedicated left turn lanes at an intersection, but as we have a right turn a quarter mile after the left turn, I prefer being in the right lane; v.12.3 choose the right lane.
6) My neighborhood has multiple 10 mph signs posted (We mean it!); v.11 originally treated them all as 25 mph, but a couple months ago treated the first sign as a 10 mph but all others as 25s; v.12.3 read them all as 10 mph. (Yeah!)

Other observations:
1) I set the speed control to automatically go 5% over the speed limit (if, of course, speed control is engaged) but manually adjust it according to typical driving conditions on different road sections, from exact speed limit to 15 mph over (after a traffic circle where the posted speed limit doesn't go up for a quarter mile).  V.11 almost always went with my 'decision' (other traffic allowing).  V.12.3 sometimes didn't get to my desired speed, choosing somewhere between the posted speed limit and my setting.
2) Along one section of rural road along which I travel both ways, the posted speed limit in one direction is 30 mph and in the other it is 40 mph.  Under v.11, it read the posted speed limits; under v.12.3, it "knew" the speed limit increased to 40 (where the speed limit decreases in the other direction) and set the speed control accordingly.

On the whole: incredible improvements!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #857 on: March 26, 2024, 12:23:29 AM »
My first drives with Tesla FSD (Beta) V12.3. 
In brief: even in Chill mode, on well-marked roads near town it drives more confidently than I do!

But after leaving town, driving manually, Navigation spent the rest of the trip requesting U-turns back to highways, rather than recalculating to proceed via the secondary road I was on.

Second trip was an 8-mile loop on old, twisting, creek-side deep valley roads.  For half the route, the road was marked with yellow lane divider lines; FSD did well.  It disengaged twice for sudden oncoming traffic on the narrow road, and I braked once for a surprise encounter with three big turkey buzzards feeding on road kill.  Second half of the loop had no lane lines!  V11 would have driven down the middle of the road, but V12 kept to the right, maintaining a speed of around 25 mph (speed limit was 35).  That felt slow, but there was no traffic behind, and the ride was very smooth.  At that speed, the car dealt well with oncoming traffic, and a dog running across the road.

In sum: notable improvements in driving but a step back in navigation, perhaps for safety reasons with this new software.  Looking forward to the three or four updates said to be coming in the next few weeks.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2024, 12:29:35 AM by Sigmetnow »
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #858 on: March 27, 2024, 02:52:19 AM »
Further comments re:
I drove for the first time with Tesla's FSD version 12.3 last night.
...
The good news:
...
6) My neighborhood has multiple 10 mph signs posted (We mean it!); v.11 originally treated them all as 25 mph, but a couple months ago treated the first sign as a 10 mph but all others as 25s; v.12.3 read them all as 10 mph. (Yeah!)

Other observations:
...
2) Along one section of rural road along which I travel both ways, the posted speed limit in one direction is 30 mph and in the other it is 40 mph.  Under v.11, it read the posted speed limits; under v.12.3, it "knew" the speed limit increased to 40 (where the speed limit decreases in the other direction) and set the speed control accordingly.
...
re #6: I usually drive out of the community manually, and didn't notice that it thinks the speed limit going out is 25, but it does read it as 10 all the way in.

re #2: They put up a new 40 mph sign that I didn't notice ...  :-[

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #859 on: March 27, 2024, 04:54:52 PM »
BMW is advertising highway Level 2 hands-free driving including lane changes but it's neither available nor approved by regulators.
Even BMW dealers complain about the ads. …
3/25/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1772263171333517554
 
Quote
Lucille Chadwick
 
So @BMW is advertising their hands-free Level 2 highway assistant everywhere, allowing you to change lanes by just looking in the side mirror. That's why I booked a test drive online with BMW and also received a confirmation for it. They then asked by email what I was particularly interested in and I said the hands-free motorway assistant. Then I arrive at BMW and the salesman doesn't know anything about a test drive. Apparently the head office didn't communicate it to the dealer. OK, quite shite so far, shown the confirmation email, he said he will complain blah blah, then made a new appointment for another day. Then he asks again for the correct car to confirm and I say yes but please with the hands-free assistant. Then he explains to me that unfortunately it is not yet available because of the law, and that also traffic light recognition is unfortunately not yet possible, and that they have a lot of such requests and that the headquarters are actually just causing problems for them with this advertising for future functions. So the appointment was canceled and we agreed for the salesman to get in touch with me as soon as the system was available at some point.
 
All in all, legacy experience straight from hell. Simply nothing at all worked with this “customer service”.
3/25/24, https://x.com/lucillechad/status/1772249036893946307

 
——
Herbert Ong and Cern Basher
A company in Europe has accumulated 5,000 Teslas, and are buying more, so they will be prepared to offer a robotaxi business.
 
Robotaxi models:  $1.00 to $0.30 per mile, plus base rate and idle time.
 
In a few years, as owners watch their Tesla depreciate but don’t want to share it on a network… a robotaxi buyer will knock on their door and offer them more than the book value for the car — because owners can make much more than that in profit by adding it to their network.
 
1 min clip: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/F25VGFYD8i   
 
The Tesla Robotaxi GAME CHANGER (Business and Stock) - YouTube 
1h12m  March 24, 2024. (I watched at 1.5x speed.)
 
➡️ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM-FFNMBLnA&feature=youtu.be

 
—-
Tesla is offering a one-month-free trial of its “Full Self Driving (Beta)” system to any Tesla in US or Canada that can run V12.3, the the all-neural-net, AI version of the software.  The normal subscription price is $199 per month.
 
Tesla to offer free one-month trial of FSD software to U.S. customers
March 26, 2024
https://www.cbtnews.com/tesla-to-offer-free-one-month-trial-of-fsd-software-to-u-s-customers/

Quote
Rohan Patel @rohanspatel
No issue on FSD that i know of with Transport Canada. We have been doing a lot of educational efforts with Transport Canada and many other regulatory bodies on our supervised FSD system. In general, regulators seem quite impressed.
3/26/24, https://x.com/rohanspatel/status/1772804132690350242
 
Teslascope
Full Self-Driving (Beta) V12.3.1 is now going out to vehicles in Canada for the first time. 🎉
Additional testing prevented V12.3 from going out to vehicles in Canada, which has now been finalized.
3/27/24, https://x.com/teslascope/status/1772878476346884483
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #860 on: April 02, 2024, 11:52:05 PM »
Further to what I reported above, a few more comments:

1) It still routinely wants to cross the double yellow line in the no-car zone just before a dedicated left turn lane, and I now regularly intercede and report my complaint.

2) It still routinely slows down too much and too early for the sharp turn in the road (but only for the right turn - it does the left turn going the other way excellently).  The recommended turn speed is 15 mph (24 kph) and it still slows to 10 mph (and early) before I press on the accelerator to do the curve reasonably. (I did disengage FSD once so that I could report a complaint.)

3) FSD 12.3 did once try to run a red light - the yellow light wasn't terribly short and it turned red when we were about 2 meters from the stop line [i.e., the car had no excuse], but I was the one to hit the brakes.  (We'd have been just like so many others who run red lights but almost "catch" the tail end of the yellow - an accident was unlikely in this instance.)

4) At a two left turn lanes intersection with me in the left lane of the two, FSD 12.3 turned too soon/too much and was heading straight for the raised concrete median end [the raised median that created the divided road] before I took over.  (A car pulling a trailer hugged the other turn lane's dashed white line, so I don't know what my car was so afraid of.)

5) When moving into a dedicated turn lane, it frequently vacillates after it starts the lane change, but it hasn't weaved back and forth like it did the one time.

6) FSD version 12.3 still does so many things more smoothly than version 11.x did.  It really is a delight!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #861 on: April 03, 2024, 04:03:17 PM »
—- If VW succeeds in developing Autonomous Vehicles with Mobileye they Will Not Sell Them to Customers
Quote
"We want to offer test drives for customers in Hamburg before the end of this year - under real conditions," announced Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles boss Carsten Intra at the annual press conference. The plan is to start in the second half of the year. Initially, it will be a trial run with selected users. In two years, the service should then go into regular operation at the Group subsidiary Moia.
 
VW is working on the project with Intel subsidiary Mobileye, which is providing the automation technology for the electric van. Regular sales of the autonomously driving ID. Buzz AD is not planned. The vehicle is intended exclusively for mobility services such as Moia.
3/29/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1773658033354150145


—- Examining Tesla FSD, robotaxi demand and financials
Quote
Here's a 2 hour, super detailed chat with the great @jamesdouma discussing Tesla's progress with FSD v12.
James is an AI expert and has closely tracked this space for many years.
3/30/24, https://x.com/farzyness/status/1774254838903136496

118 min.  March 30, 2024.  Watchable at 1.5x playback speed.
On 𝕏 ➡️ pic.twitter.com/vhwhbT33dh 
Or Youtube:
Tesla FSD v12 Just Changed Transportation Forever w/ James Douma - YouTube
 


Here’s a summary:
 
Quote
Comments on FSD V12:

1. Tesla's FSD V12 update marks a significant improvement over the previous versions, with a complete overhaul of the system using an end-to-end neural network approach. This has resulted in a drastic reduction in interventions and improved handling of complex situations.

2. Hardware 3, despite being 5 years old, is still a highly capable platform for running FSD, and its full potential is yet to be realized. The majority of future improvements will likely come from software optimization rather than hardware upgrades.

3. The rollout of FSD V12 to all capable vehicles in the US is seen as a move to increase data collection and a sign of Tesla's confidence in the system's performance.

4. The potential for a Tesla robotaxi service is discussed at length, with James providing detailed insights into the economics and market dynamics of such a service. He believes that robotaxis could be highly profitable and disruptive to the transportation industry.

5. Competitors face significant challenges in developing their own self-driving systems, largely due to the high costs, long development times, and the need to produce purpose-built electric vehicles at scale.

6. The discussion also touches on the potential implications of Tesla's FSD technology for the development of the Tesla Bot (Optimus) and the future of transportation in general.

 
Regarding the potential for a Tesla robotaxi service, James provided a detailed analysis of the economics and market dynamics:
 
1. The net present value of a Tesla with robotaxi functionality could be around $200,000, depending on various factors and the timeframe considered.

2. In a model based on Chicago's rideshare data, James estimates that a fleet of 10,000 robotaxis could satisfy the current demand in the city, with each vehicle driving an average of 55,000 miles per year, including deadhead miles.

3. The operating cost per mile for a robotaxi is estimated at $0.46, while the average revenue per mile is around $2.50. This means that each robotaxi could generate $100,000 in annual profit.

4. With 10,000 vehicles each generating $100,000 in profit annually, the total profit for the Chicago market alone would be $1 billion per year.

5. Extrapolating this to the entire US market, James believes that around 1 million robotaxis would be needed to satisfy the current urban demand, potentially generating $100 billion in annual profits at the current price points.

6. However, as more competitors enter the market, prices are expected to decrease. Tesla could still operate profitably at rates as low as $0.60 per mile, considering the low cost of producing purpose-built robotaxis (around $20,000 per vehicle).

7. James estimates that the long-term demand for robotaxi miles in the US could reach 1.5 trillion miles annually, which is significantly higher than the current rideshare market.

8. The profitability of the robotaxi market is expected to be highest when there are around 1-4 million vehicles in operation. As the number of vehicles increases to 20-40 million, the market will become more commoditized, with lower margins but still a substantial overall market size (potentially $500 billion annually).
3/31/24, https://x.com/andrewwperkins/status/1774437316909826359

From my notes:
- Need to have a robotaxi fleet big enough to service the surge on Friday & Saturday nights, and around dinnertime.  But then 90% of the time, 50% of your fleet is sitting unused.  Key for superior service will be to preposition robotaxis using AI so that a vehicle arrives within 30 sec to 1 minute of when one is requested. This minimizes deadheading as well, and increases demand because the service is dependable.
It would only take 200 vehicles to do this for Chicago.
 
- As we transition to rideshare, the important metric is not how many ICE cars are eliminated, but rather how many fewer miles are travelled by the remaining ones.
 
- If EV makers go with NVIDIA or other non-tesla ADAS system, it will require at least 5 years and a billion dollars to write the software and get the data needed to develop it.  That’s today; it will be less expensive later when compute is cheaper.

 
James Douma provided a long thread with lots of graphs describing the rideshare model he discussed in the video.  Based on Chicago and its taxi/rideshare services — the city offers a wealth of data detailing it.
 
Here’s an excerpt:
Quote
jimmah @jamesdouma
On yesterday's chat with Hans and Farzad I mentioned some stats about rideshare demand. I'll share a few details in a thread here.
This is napkin math but it's based on real demand data and I think it illustrates the business potential.
⬇️ Useage heatmap below from: pic.twitter.com/ou5z2HipZJ 
  —-
We can use Chicago as a baseline to gauge the rideshare demand available to robotaxis and estimate fleet size, revenue, and utilization to inform a model of the robotaxi market at the 1M vehicle US fleet scale.
We need 10k vehicles to service up to 6500 rides at peak usage.
.
.
.
Extrapolating to the whole US you get a 1M vehicle fleet generating $100B gross profit per year.  Naturally, there will be competition, regulatory barriers, fights with incumbents, and pushback from various quarters so actual results will vary, perhaps substantially. 
 
But the potential for the underlying business is extraordinary.
 
Looking even further ahead, a cost floor of $0.40/mi allows for expansion beyond current rideshare demand, potentially commoditizing half or more of all vehicle miles in the US. 
 
50% of US vehicle miles with $0.60 revenue / $0.40 cost per mile is $250B of profit on $750B of revenue.  That's a very big industry.  And that's only the US.
 
This is data to flesh out the discussion from the last ten minutes of [the] conversation.
3/30/24 https://x.com/jamesdouma/status/1774199547272851471
« Last Edit: April 03, 2024, 04:12:52 PM by Sigmetnow »
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nadir

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #862 on: April 07, 2024, 02:22:40 AM »
BMW is advertising highway Level 2 hands-free driving including lane changes but it's neither available nor approved by regulators.
Even BMW dealers complain about the ads. …
3/25/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1772263171333517554
 
Quote
Lucille Chadwick
 
So @BMW is advertising their hands-free Level 2 highway assistant everywhere, allowing you to change lanes by just looking in the side mirror. That's why I booked a test drive online with BMW and also received a confirmation for it. They then asked by email what I was particularly interested in and I said the hands-free motorway assistant. Then I arrive at BMW and the salesman doesn't know anything about a test drive. Apparently the head office didn't communicate it to the dealer. OK, quite shite so far, shown the confirmation email, he said he will complain blah blah, then made a new appointment for another day. Then he asks again for the correct car to confirm and I say yes but please with the hands-free assistant. Then he explains to me that unfortunately it is not yet available because of the law, and that also traffic light recognition is unfortunately not yet possible, and that they have a lot of such requests and that the headquarters are actually just causing problems for them with this advertising for future functions. So the appointment was canceled and we agreed for the salesman to get in touch with me as soon as the system was available at some point.
——
That’s akin to what Tesla did from 2016 to 2022. Even worse. Promised robotaxis and finally delivered the Level-2 shite.

nadir

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #863 on: April 07, 2024, 02:36:23 AM »
Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #864 on: April 07, 2024, 08:40:18 PM »
Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?
« Last Edit: April 07, 2024, 10:18:53 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #865 on: April 08, 2024, 07:50:45 PM »
Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

touche.
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nadir

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #866 on: April 08, 2024, 08:11:53 PM »
Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

Crap, that’s affirmative. Musk is constantly creating imaginary crap years before the slightest tech exists, kicking them down the road for many years to keep you hypnotized. Now we have three-five years of $25k model ahead and indefinite years of Robotaxi down the road, speculation to keep the stocks inflated; add the Optimus, the Semi, the Roadster 2 with rockets, the Solar, the Hyperloop, the Dojo, the swappable batteries, the 4680 cells and keep counting.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #867 on: April 09, 2024, 04:22:25 PM »
Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.
 
You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?
Crap, that’s affirmative. Musk is constantly creating imaginary crap years before the slightest tech exists, kicking them down the road for many years to keep you hypnotized. Now we have three-five years of $25k model ahead and indefinite years of Robotaxi down the road, speculation to keep the stocks inflated; add the Optimus, the Semi, the Roadster 2 with rockets, the Solar, the Hyperloop, the Dojo, the swappable batteries, the 4680 cells and keep counting.
 
Debate Tip:  Spewing a blob of Whataboutisms and lies does not help your argument.  It simply emphasizes your lack of knowledge, and encourages corrections and clarifications, like these:

 
The smaller Tesla and Robotaxis will make their debut this year on August 8.  (See the job openings post I added to the Tesla thread.)  Prepare for another massive disruption of the automotive industry!

There never was a “Tesla Hyperloop.”  However, Musk’s white-paper describing potential Hyperloop technology was taken up by other companies in the US, Canada, India, Dubai, France, the UK and South Korea.
 
https://canadianbusiness.com/ideas/hyperloop-train-network-elon-musk-transpod/
 
https://www.bayut.com/mybayut/all-about-dubai-abu-dhabi-hyperloop/

What Tesla does have is the “Vegas Loop,” which is operating, successfully, using Teslas in tunnels in Las Vegas. The Boring Company is currently digging its way to more hotels and venues on the Strip.
 
Tesla Cybertruck to join Vegas Loop fleet
January 10, 2024
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-cybertruck-to-join-vegas-loop-fleet/
 
The Boring Company Acquires Land near UNLV for University Center Loop
JANUARY 19, 2024
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/the-boring-company-acquires-land-near-unlv-for-university-center-loop/

TBC is has recently assembled their latest TBM at Giga Texas, to construct a tunnel to connect the factory’s logistics lots on either side of the neighboring highway.  A rather direct alternative to a bridge or more roads.
Quote
The Boring Company
Prufrock 3 lined up in Texas. Designed for rapid continuous mining (i.e. never stops), though achieving 100% utilization will be quite difficult. ➡️ pic.twitter.com/5EyXd0UPyq
3/2/24, https://x.com/boringcompany/status/1764095364242846108
Quote
The @boringcompany continues final prep to start tunneling at Giga Texas, with part of the belt conveyor system installed & the small “train” cart for concrete tunnel sections on site. Generators getting fueled up & crews working on cooling system pipes & connections. 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/O1rgyo8zoS
3/4/24, https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1764683344686567742
 
—-
Tesla semi: Besides Pepsico’s operational fleet, Tesla has a fleet of about 100 semis working every day transporting parts and vehicles.

Tesla Giga Nevada Semi Factory Progress Update
4/7/24, https://x.com/hinrichszane/status/1777151138913239175
➡️ pic.twitter.com/svMNa423g7  7 min., but really all that’s needed is a screencap ⬇️
(And before you say anything, remember TeslaQ’s dismissal of the “muddy field” which became Giga Shanghai in record-setting time.  The video discusses the infrastructure that’s already been laid.)
 
Tesla Semi delivering reengineered Tesla Model 3s in Ultra Red, from Fremont factory!
4/5/24, https://x.com/alsultan_meriam/status/1776447526692098405
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/o1COcETd70 

—-
Swappable batteries in cars is neither economically sound nor smart for large fleets.  Tesla offered swappable batteries years ago.  They quickly found almost no one wanted to do it.  Why risk getting a different battery with an unknown history in your car?  Nowadays, Supercharging with Tesla’s smart navigation (only charge as much as you need) means a charging session is often only 15 or 20 minutes.  No one who knows anything about Tesla talks about battery swapping these days.

—-
Dojo exists!  FSD is no longer compute constrained.  4680 cells are in fleets worldwide, their use is growing, and Panasonic and others are building factories to make more of them.  I see you don’t mention the hugely successful Tesla Energy.  Only a fool would dismiss conversations about Tesla’s potential revenue from Optimus (and Roadster 2 — the base model, still expensive, huge profit margin, but no rockets)….
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #868 on: April 10, 2024, 09:40:05 PM »
Cruise press release
 
Cruise resumes manual driving as next step in return to driverless mission
Quote
Looking to the next chapter, our goal is to resume driverless operations. As we continue working to rebuild trust and determine the city where we will scale driverless, we also remain focused on continuing to improve our performance and overall safety approach. To that end, Cruise is resuming manual driving to create maps and gather road information in select cities, starting in Phoenix. This work is done using human-driven vehicles without autonomous systems engaged, and is a critical step for validating our self-driving systems as we work towards returning to our driverless mission. This will help inform where we ultimately will resume driverless operations.

Adaptive Fleet Learning
Cruise’s AV stack is based on AI technology that learns from information gathered through our driving experience and retrains and evolves our models continuously. The fleet learns from every intersection, construction zone, and road sign it encounters, and applies that knowledge to other environments and scenarios – much the same as a human driver learns, but with far more data and the ability to impart that continuous learning across the entire fleet.


Steps Prior to Driverless Operations
The first step is identifying high fidelity location data for road features and map information like speed limits, stop signs, traffic lights, lane paint, right turn only lanes and more. Having current and accurate information will help an autonomous vehicle understand where it is and the location of certain road features. We also measure our perception and prediction systems against our elevated performance criteria, using trained safety drivers as a benchmark. At this stage, no autonomous systems are engaged and the vehicles will not carry public passengers.

Next, we’ll validate our AV’s end-to-end performance against our rigorous safety and AV performance requirements through supervised autonomous driving on public roads, in addition to the ongoing simulation and closed course driving we do. During this phase, the Cruise vehicles will drive themselves and a safety driver is present behind the wheel to monitor and take over if needed.
https://www.getcruise.com/news/blog/2024/cruise-resumes-manual-driving-as-next-step-in-return-to-driverless-mission/

=====
 
😂  Re: Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised)’s tendency to scrape the curb:
 
Quote
Your robotaxi arrives. What do you do?
4/9/24, https://x.com/28delayslater/status/1777742918545268817
⬇️ pic below. pic.twitter.com/MKwpRLJdjV 
 
< Get excited about close curbside service!
< Feel validated that I have the same skill set as 1B miles driven
< Robotic on aggressive mode. Seat belt up and go!!!
< Laugh
< Break out in hives.
< Wait a few years until they add LiDAR.
< Elon on 8/8: "Let me introduce the new robotaxi rim."
 
[lots more at the link]
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #869 on: April 12, 2024, 08:00:32 PM »
Here's what it looks like when a Waymo vehicle requires human intervention
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/fSXJxNTR73  
 
5 min. Driving loops inside the post office operations parking lot, like a Roomba stuck in a closet.  Passenger “Kevin” is extremely patient and polite; apologizes to irritated Post Office guy.  Remote assistance can’t fix things; human finally arrives and gets in the car to finish the drive manually.

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbEplrZ-uSA&feature=youtu.be  [35 min]

—-
Mustang Mach-e operating on BlueCruise crashed into a Honda CR-V on a Texas highway, causing a fatality
 
NTSB Newsroom
NTSB issues its preliminary report for the ongoing safety investigation of the Feb. 24 collision between an SUV operating with partial driving automation and a stationary SUV in San Antonio, Texas
4/11/24, https://x.com/ntsb_newsroom/status/1778504963183755452
 
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/HWY24FH006.aspx
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Freegrass

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #870 on: April 12, 2024, 10:05:39 PM »
Pretty good short little video from Sabine on electrified highways for trucks in Germany.
I don't see it happening.

The best solution comes at the end.

90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #871 on: April 14, 2024, 03:48:36 AM »
Quote
NEWS: Hyundai is teasing its robotaxi.
 
"IONIQ 5 robotaxi is an autonomous EV that learns from every traffic situation it comes across. With over 30 in-built sensors, including LiDAR, radar and cameras, the IONIQ 5 robotaxi has 360-degree vision, allowing it to detect obstacles from any angle, to transport passengers to their destinations - starting this year. Stay tuned for the driverless future."
4/13/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1779280726715760938
 
< 🤣 if they only know it will take 31 sensors to solve Robotaxi. Too bad Hyundai.
 
< They're only 94% sure that's a person?
<< Makes sense.  5% Scooter 1% Elvis
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NeilT

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Re: Transport and self driving vehicles
« Reply #872 on: April 16, 2024, 12:12:40 AM »
Maybe it was confused by the fake flames coming out of fake exhaust ports....
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