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Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1450 on: July 12, 2019, 01:03:16 AM »
India's coal plants in the pre-construction pipeline have declined by 83% from 2018.

https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf

Quote
Planned new coal capacity has fallen particularly rapidly
in China and India. At the end of 2015, China had
plans to construct 515 GW of new coal power capacity.
That figure now stands at 70 GW, an 86% decline. In
India, the pre-construction pipeline has shrunk 83%,
from 218 GW in 2015 to 36 GW today

Quote
In 2018, 50.2 GW of new coal capacity was commissioned:
34.5 GW in China, 7.7 GW in India, and 8 GW
in the rest of the world (primarily Indonesia, Japan,
Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey,
and Vietnam).
Retirements totaled nearly 31 GW in 2018, making
it the third highest year for global coal plant retirements.
Retired capacity was led by the US with
17.6 GW—the second-highest year for US coal retirements
after 2015, which had 21 GW of retirements.

Quote
Retired capacity in China and India totaled 9 GW,
and is set to increase in the future. India has proposed
48 GW of coal plant retirements through 2027,

mainly subcritical coal plants ill-equipped to meet
new pollution standards. China plans to close small
coal plants under 300 MW that cannot meet new
standards for environmental protection, efficiency,
and safety, as well as plants concentrated within 15
kilometers of a power plant size 300 MW or above.

Unless my math is wrong, it looks like India is planning to retire more coal power (48GW) than it added in 2018 (7.7GW) and is currently projected to build (36GW).  And given that renewables with battery storage are now cheaper than operating coal power plants, the number of new coal power plants should decrease and the number of retirements could increase.

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1451 on: July 12, 2019, 05:51:55 PM »
Relatively New Coal Plants and The Inertia of Depreciation Accounting

When a company invests in a large capital asset, the investment is placed on its balance sheet and depreciated over the deemed economic life of the asset. In the case of a coal-fired power station that assumption would have been decades - lets say 30 years (quite possibly more). So on the company's balance sheet the asset is reduced in value by 1/30th (this is simplistic as there are more complex depreciation schedules) of the amount that it was first placed on the balance sheet at. This annual depreciation amount is taken as a charge against earnings (i.e. reducing earnings) and also reduces shareholder equity.

In the case that it is found that the asset will have an economic life much shorter than assumed the annual depreciation has to be increased to match the shorter life - increasing the hit to profits and shareholder equity. In the case of immediate closure, the remaining non-depreciated book value has to be written off against current year earnings and shareholder equity. The amounts involved may be so large as to endanger the ongoing operation of the company, and/or break loan covenants etc. that could force liquidation.

In the US, and much of Europe, most coal plants are very old and fully/heavily depreciated and therefore the issue is minimal. In many other countries, such as China and India, the majority of coal plants are about, or less than, 10 years old. So there is a big problem that either needs to be subsidized by the government or the public and private utilities will not replace these plants until a much greater level of their cost has been depreciated.With many of these plants under-utilized, they may actually burn more coal if possible to utilize the asset more economically at the margin.

Any new coal plants add to this problem. Assuming a multi-decade life for a fossil fuel asset may seem somewhat insane to many of us on this forum, but that is what these providers' accountants and executives are doing.So we get an increasing level of depreciation accounting lock in. Government policies to force much shorter depreciation schedules for new fossil fuel plants would stop new builds dead. If retroactive,such a policy would help force a more rapid move to renewables (and probably bankrupt quite a few utilities).

« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 08:28:23 PM by rboyd »

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1452 on: July 12, 2019, 11:33:26 PM »
Indiana shutting down coal plants early because they'll save billions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/02/mike-pences-indiana-chooses-renewables-over-gas-as-it-retires-coal-early/#3a2961a443b4

Quote
Renewables are so cheap, said Mike Hooper, the senior vice president of the Northern Indiana Service Company (NIPSCO), that the utility can close its coal plants early and return $4 billion to its customers over the next 30 years.

"It ends up being a really big number, somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 billion for our customers, and clearly a lot of that comes from the fact that there’s hundreds of millions of dollars in fuel every year from a marginal standpoint that you're not spending, that the customer gets the advantage of through the check they write us every month."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1453 on: July 15, 2019, 09:13:59 PM »
”Natural gas is on the rise, but that increase isn’t enough to offset coal’s decrease, as natural gas is less carbon-intensive than coal.”

US energy-related CO2 emissions expected to fall this year, almost solely due to a drop in coal use
Quote
After an increase in 2018, energy-related CO2 emissions in the US are expected to decrease this year, and a drop in coal consumption is far and away the biggest reason for the change.

The estimates come from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which forecasts a 2.2% decrease in US energy-related CO2 emissions for 2019, after a 2.7% increase last year:

Nearly all of the forecast decrease is due to fewer emissions from coal consumption. Forecast natural gas CO2 emissions increase and petroleum CO2 emissions remain virtually unchanged.

The first three months of 2019 and 2018 were roughly equal in CO2 emissions — the first quarter of each year typically has the highest emissions. However, the EIA expects that mild temperatures will keep energy demand lower for the rest of the year. …
https://electrek.co/2019/07/15/us-co2-emissions-coal-2019/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1454 on: July 16, 2019, 12:04:01 AM »
Coal retirements are happening so fast that the agencies in charge with predicting US energy consumption can't keep up.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/09/egeb-us-coal-retirements/

Quote
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Energy Infrastructure Update for April 2019, released last month, revealed that renewable capacity in the US surpassed coal for the first time. And the newest update reveals a large increase in expected coal plant retirements, just a month later.

Whereas the previous report revealed that 13,992 megawatts of coal capacity were set to be retired by May 2022, the newest FERC update now expects 17,054 MW of coal to be retired by June 2022. That’s a 3,000+ MW expected decrease in coal capacity, in an extra month’s time.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1455 on: July 16, 2019, 07:53:27 PM »
U.S.:  Coal communities aren’t prepared for their all-but-certain fiscal collapse, new findings show
Quote
Between 2007 and 2017, coal production fell by a third, a decline that is set to continue even under current policies with a pro-coal federal government. But even a “moderately stringent climate policy,” the researchers note, could lead the industry to plummet by around 75% into the 2020s.

That would likely be disastrous for unprepared communities. School districts and other systems in these areas rely on coal-dependent revenue and local economies are heavily intertwined with the industry. Historically, the study argues, “the rapid decline of a dominant industry” has led to the fiscal collapse of local governments, threatening their long-term well-being.
...
New data similarly indicates that the administration’s efforts aren’t shifting coal’s trajectory, even short-term. S&P Global reported Monday that despite the ACE rule, several coal plant operators are still going ahead with scheduled retirements.

Those operators argue that even despite the rule change, the “dynamics” within the industry will not shift, such as the rising popularity of renewables and natural gas. Notably, more coal plants shuttered during Trump’s first two years in office than during the entire first term of the Obama administration. ...
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-coal-data-just-transition-green-new-deal-8718ce39df7f/
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DrTskoul

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1456 on: July 17, 2019, 12:51:45 AM »
How could they be? They were told Coal is coming back....

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1457 on: July 18, 2019, 08:25:21 AM »
Now we need to ban coal exports.


Should be much easier to leave it in the ground now that the electrical producers won't be throwing their lobbyists into the fray.


Can a Democratic congress pull it off?

Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1458 on: July 24, 2019, 06:43:24 PM »
Coal is basically in the "dead man walking" phase of existence.

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/asia-pacific/2019/coal-clinging-on-in-south-and-east-asia

Quote
Bleak outlook for growth

If there is little prospect for coal use to decline much in the short-to-medium-term, a new phase of growth also looks unlikely. Coal financing is drying up quickly. And India, one of coal's last growth centres, continues to cancel coal plant openings.

"The fight is coming to an end game," says Tim Buckley, director of energy finance studies at environmental economics think tank Ieefa in Sydney. "India began this decade with over 600GW of planned capacity, and 85pc of those proposals have either been shelved or cancelled. The banking sector collectively in India has $100bn of impaired exposure to the coal sector. So, they have got no new capacity to lend for coal fired projects."

Buckley's preferred measure to track the coal plant pipeline is to compare closures to final investment decisions, or FIDs, on any new plant completions. Because FIDs are declining, and because closures are rising, he calculates that, around 2021, closures will fully outpace openings. "Closures accelerated the last 4 years by 50pc compared to the previous 4 years," says Buckley, adding that "there are now 113 institutions that will no longer provide financing to coal".

In Buckley's view, coal's fortunes are most closely tied to capital availability. The financing sector can see significant risk, he says, that any new coal plant, proposed to open four years from now, begins its life-cycle in a fundamentally uneconomic position, unable to compete with ultra-cheap wind and solar, or in regions with carbon pricing, natural gas. In short, why bother?

sidd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1459 on: July 24, 2019, 09:40:09 PM »
As I've been saying, Adani Coal is a scam:  "a corporate collapse waiting to happen"

" total liabilities exceed total assets by more than half a billion dollars"

"Current assets of less than $30 million are swamped by current liabilities, due over the next 12 months, of more than $1.8 billion."

"not generating enough revenue to cover their interest payments"

"audit opinions that their financial controls are not adequate and so their accounts could contain material misstatements"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-24/adani-carmichael-subsidiary-surviving-on-lifeline-from-parent/11338926

sidd

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1460 on: July 27, 2019, 12:38:14 AM »
Yet another large insurer will no longer insure coal mines or power plants.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/insurance-giant-suncorp-says-it-will-no-longer-cover-new-thermal-coal-projects

Quote
Australian insurance giant Suncorp will no longer invest in, finance or insure new thermal coal mines and power plants, and will not underwrite any existing thermal coal projects after 2025.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1461 on: July 27, 2019, 07:53:44 PM »
Indiana shutting down coal plants early because they'll save billions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/02/mike-pences-indiana-chooses-renewables-over-gas-as-it-retires-coal-early/#3a2961a443b4

Quote
Renewables are so cheap, said Mike Hooper, the senior vice president of the Northern Indiana Service Company (NIPSCO), that the utility can close its coal plants early and return $4 billion to its customers over the next 30 years.

"It ends up being a really big number, somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 billion for our customers, and clearly a lot of that comes from the fact that there’s hundreds of millions of dollars in fuel every year from a marginal standpoint that you're not spending, that the customer gets the advantage of through the check they write us every month."

Anyone who drives through northern Indiana on I65 or US 41 will see windmill farms that stretch to the horizon.

http://windturbinessengun.blogspot.com/2017/06/indiana-wind-turbines-i-65.html

I find them beautiful.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1462 on: July 27, 2019, 08:32:48 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1463 on: August 09, 2019, 01:52:19 AM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1464 on: August 09, 2019, 02:33:46 PM »
It is a good overview with data for debunking myths

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/the-war-on-coal-myth/
The 'war on coal' myth
Environmental regulations aren't the reason that coal is falling off the map.

Quote
________________________________________________________
Is environmental extremism causing the decline of the American coal industry? A look at the economics shows that coal has been beaten fair and square in the marketplace by cheaper and cleaner alternatives. The best way to support coal communities is to confront these economic realities, rather than creating a divisive and false narrative about the reasons behind the industry’s challenges.
____________________________________________________________________
........ a transition that is celebrated by environmental advocates and considered a “war on coal” by President Trump and many elected Republicans. Montana’s Republican Senator, Steve Daines, echoed a familiar refrain in his press release about the Colstrip closure, claiming “yet another example of the devastating impacts of extreme environmental regulations, fringe litigation, and partisan politics.”

...Are environmental regulations and fringe litigation to blame for coal’s downturn? In short, the answer is no. The real answer comes down to simple economics, as illustrated here in six short points.
1. The price of coal has not increased.

2. The price of coal has been undercut by cheaper, cleaner competitors. (see attached)

3. Because of these factors, the coal industry is declining in the U.S.  (see attached)

4. Coal bankruptcies hit workers and retirees the hardest.
Peabody Energy emerged from bankruptcy in part by winnowing away coal miners’ retirement benefits by 88%. But those austerity measures appear not to have applied to executive benefits, and Peabody’s bankruptcy settlement included $11.9 million in cash bonuses for top executives.

5. Clean coal sounds great, but only exacerbates the high cost of coal. (see attached)
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates coal with carbon capture would cost more than twice the price of wind, solar, or gas.

6. ‘Affordable Clean Energy’ rule will not save the coal industry.
In the end, the perceived “war on coal” is primarily a consequence of better, cleaner, cheaper technology – typically the types of innovations that are encouraged rather than thwarted. Given market forces, no amount of industry favors can reverse these developments.

But the closure of mines and power plants presents acute challenges for coal communities, and experts agree that steady leadership is essential to plan ahead and ease the hardship for coal workers and their families. This is precisely why elected officials would do well to look past partisan potshots and focus on the core reasons the industry is changing. Only then can they come to grips with the economics of coal, and navigate toward long-term alternatives, which ultimately, will benefit everyone.

FILED UNDER: Karin Kirk
« Last Edit: August 09, 2019, 02:39:41 PM by gerontocrat »
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rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1465 on: August 10, 2019, 09:27:01 PM »
India, Pakistan, China, Indonesia etc. - Ongoing Growth In Coal Usage

This will offset, if not more than offset, any reductions in the Western nations.

Huge Pakistan mine shows the power of coal

Quote
In contrast to the stuttering start of Pakistan’s renewable ambitions, the view of the future from the Thar coal mine is one of confidence. “Coal plants that are getting shut down have outlived their useful life,” said Ahsan Zafar Syed, chief executive officer of Engro Energy Ltd., the Pakistani company leading the project. “As I speak, there are 26 countries in the world where coal power plants are being constructed. They are everywhere.”

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/09/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/mile-wide-open-mine-pakistan-shows-coal-wont-go-away/#.XU8XXGRKjjA

India expects its coal-fired power capacity to grow 22% in three years

So much for India cutting coal use

Quote
India, the third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, saw its annual coal demand rise 9.1% to nearly 1 billion tonnes in the year ended March 2019. Coal demand from utilities accounted for over three-quarters of total consumption.

“Capacity by 2022 is likely to be 238 gigawatts (GW) in terms of coal-based generation,” Ghanshyam Prasad, chief engineer at India’s ministry of power said at the India Coal Conference on Wednesday.

The International Energy Agency expects India to become the second largest coal consumer behind China early next decade.

Electricity demand in the country rose 36% in the seven years to April 2019 while coal-fired generation capacity during the period grew by 74% to 194.44 GW, according to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

“If we have to meet demand and address the intermittencies we have with solar and wind, we have no choice but to keep depending on coal-based generation in the near future,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-coal/india-expects-coal-fired-power-capacity-to-grow-22-in-three-years-idINKCN1UQ1Q8

China coal mine approvals surge despite climate pledges

Quote
Approvals for new coal mine construction in China have surged in 2019, government documents showed, with Beijing expecting consumption of the commodity to rise in the coming years even as it steps up its fight against smog and greenhouse gas emissions.

Quote
China’s energy regulator gave the go-ahead to build 141 million tonnes of new annual coal production capacity from January to June, compared to 25 million tonnes over the whole of last year

“However, it is alarming that China’s energy planning seems to be driving at roughly maintaining current levels of coal output for the coming decade or two, which is very hard to reconcile with the goal of the Paris agreement (on climate change),” he said.

“Especially given that oil and gas consumption is still increasing, it’s imperative that coal use starts falling again after rebounding for the past three years.”

Chinese coal output rose 2.6% in the first-half of 2019 to 1.76 billion tonnes.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINKCN1UW0G4

Indonesia - about 58 greenfield coal-fired power plants are due to come online by 2027

https://asian-power.com/regulation/in-focus/will-indonesia-keep-its-unrelenting-grip-coal


Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1466 on: August 12, 2019, 07:30:38 PM »
India, Pakistan, China, Indonesia etc. - Ongoing Growth In Coal Usage

This will offset, if not more than offset, any reductions in the Western nations.

Huge Pakistan mine shows the power of coal

Quote
In contrast to the stuttering start of Pakistan’s renewable ambitions, the view of the future from the Thar coal mine is one of confidence. “Coal plants that are getting shut down have outlived their useful life,” said Ahsan Zafar Syed, chief executive officer of Engro Energy Ltd., the Pakistani company leading the project. “As I speak, there are 26 countries in the world where coal power plants are being constructed. They are everywhere.”

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/09/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/mile-wide-open-mine-pakistan-shows-coal-wont-go-away/#.XU8XXGRKjjA

India expects its coal-fired power capacity to grow 22% in three years

So much for India cutting coal use

Quote
India, the third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, saw its annual coal demand rise 9.1% to nearly 1 billion tonnes in the year ended March 2019. Coal demand from utilities accounted for over three-quarters of total consumption.

“Capacity by 2022 is likely to be 238 gigawatts (GW) in terms of coal-based generation,” Ghanshyam Prasad, chief engineer at India’s ministry of power said at the India Coal Conference on Wednesday.

The International Energy Agency expects India to become the second largest coal consumer behind China early next decade.

Electricity demand in the country rose 36% in the seven years to April 2019 while coal-fired generation capacity during the period grew by 74% to 194.44 GW, according to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

“If we have to meet demand and address the intermittencies we have with solar and wind, we have no choice but to keep depending on coal-based generation in the near future,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-coal/india-expects-coal-fired-power-capacity-to-grow-22-in-three-years-idINKCN1UQ1Q8

China coal mine approvals surge despite climate pledges

Quote
Approvals for new coal mine construction in China have surged in 2019, government documents showed, with Beijing expecting consumption of the commodity to rise in the coming years even as it steps up its fight against smog and greenhouse gas emissions.

Quote
China’s energy regulator gave the go-ahead to build 141 million tonnes of new annual coal production capacity from January to June, compared to 25 million tonnes over the whole of last year

“However, it is alarming that China’s energy planning seems to be driving at roughly maintaining current levels of coal output for the coming decade or two, which is very hard to reconcile with the goal of the Paris agreement (on climate change),” he said.

“Especially given that oil and gas consumption is still increasing, it’s imperative that coal use starts falling again after rebounding for the past three years.”

Chinese coal output rose 2.6% in the first-half of 2019 to 1.76 billion tonnes.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINKCN1UW0G4

Indonesia - about 58 greenfield coal-fired power plants are due to come online by 2027

https://asian-power.com/regulation/in-focus/will-indonesia-keep-its-unrelenting-grip-coal

Renewables are cheaper than coal, even in Asia.  Here's an article from April 2019 explaining the "growth" of coal power in China.  (Growth is in quotes because by the time the plants are built, if they're completed, others will have been retired so the total emissions from coal will be lower).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-22/china-s-green-light-on-coal-power-won-t-trigger-new-plant-boom

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China’s green light to build more coal-fired power plants probably won’t usher in a flurry of new construction as most policies and investments in the top energy user will tilt toward renewable sources.

Quote
“The profitability of coal-fired power plants is so low, there’s no incentive for them to build more,” said Morningstar analyst Jennifer Song. “China as a whole has set consumption targets for renewable energy sources. We can see those large power groups also have quotas to build more renewable projects.”

Quote
Data on Monday showed China’s investment during January-March in thermal power plants, which mostly consist of coal-fired generators, slumped 30 percent from a year earlier. In contrast, spending on hydropower and wind power projects rose 48 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

“Most of the capital expenditure planned by coal-fired power companies will be in renewable energy,” said Song Qiuyi, a Shanghai-based analyst at Capital Securities Corp., adding the latest assessment from NEA won’t change the situation.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1467 on: August 12, 2019, 07:42:35 PM »
rboyd likes to cherry-pick news story about a few new coal plants being planned while ignoring the overall global trends of retirements far outpacing new construction.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/28/global-collapse-in-number-of-new-coal-fired-power-plants

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The number of coal-fired power plants being developed around the world has collapsed in the last three years, according to a report.

The number of plants on which construction has begun each year has fallen by 84% since 2015, and 39% in 2018 alone, while the number of completed plants has dropped by more than half since 2015.

The report, from the NGO-backed Global Energy Monitor, says the falling costs of renewable energy are pricing coal out of the electricity market, more than 100 financial institutions have blacklisted coal producers, and political action to cut carbon emissions is growing.

And China, with it's bizarre mix of Government controls and state owned profit-seeking companies, has managed to really screw up it's electricity generating sector.  There have been starts and stops in nuclear, solar and coal power plant permitting over the past few years.  It's resulted in an electrical system that has more capacity than is currently needed, which will hurt the most expensive generators.  Since coal is more expensive than renewables, it'll be the source that is curtailed.

https://voxeu.org/article/china-overinvested-coal-power-here-s-why

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After three decades of building up its capital stock, China has entered a phase where efficient allocation of capital resources is vitally important for sustained economic growth. However, due to governance problems and market distortions, many key industries in China have experienced serious capital misallocation and overcapacity issues in the past few years, with the energy industry being one of the most salient examples.

Quote
In the past five years, utilisation levels of all energy types fell sharply as growth in energy supply shot past energy demand (Figure 1 and Table 1). Nearly 50% of China’s coal power plants faced net financial loss in 2018 (Ji 2018). While policy efforts1 have been made to contain the coal overcapacity crisis, under the existing governance structure and market rules, coal power investment in China is unlikely to return in the near future to an equilibrium where plants can still profit under a competitive market price of electricity.


Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1468 on: August 12, 2019, 07:50:54 PM »
Even with the new coal plants under construction in China and India, peak coal is projected within two years.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/peak-coal-in-sight-as-new-power-stations-drop-and-retirements-jump-20190327-p5186m.html

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The global pace of new construction of power stations is slowing while retirement of ageing plants is accelerating, placing the world on track for "peak coal" capacity within a couple of years.

The annual Boom and Bust report, compiled by researchers including Global Energy Monitor and Greenpeace, found construction starts, pre-construction activity and completions of coal-fired plants each fell in 2018 for a third year in a row. New starts are down 84 per cent since 2015.

Retirements were also at a record pace, led by the US despite backing for the sector by the Trump administration. The US shut 17.6 gigawatts of coal power, while the European Union retired 3.7GW including 2.8GW in the UK where coal's share of electricity dived to just 5 per cent in 2018.

Quote
Tim Buckley, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis, said the Boom and Bust report suggests coal demand for power generation may soon plateau, with net new coal plants dropping last year to about 19GW - the lowest in more than a decade.

"We're within two years of peak coal plant capacity globally, notwithstanding China," he said.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at Greenpeace Global Air Pollution Unit, told the Herald that the China Electricity Council's higher cap "seems like an attempt to overturn the central government policies that have curtailed coal plant construction".

"One clear interest is to be able to complete and operate those coal plants that are already under construction but were suspended or delayed by the [central] government," Mr Myllyvirta said.

Quote
Countering that plan, though, is the rapid increase in renewable energy, helping China lead solar and wind capacity additions.

"Renewable energy will definitely grow and gain share, but question is how much," Mr Myllyvirta said, noting the CEC's own 2035 target is for half of electricity to be supplied by renewables.

"Other projections that incorporate global warming targets have the share of fossil fuels in power generation falling to 20-30 per cent by 2035 in China," he said.

Quote
India - often talked up as a future growth market - is likely to have close to net-zero additions of new capacity in its 2018-19 fiscal year that ends this month, he said. "That's a decade earlier than expected."

The report said new bids for wind and solar in India were "coming in below the operating costs of nearly one-third of the country's coal plants".

India permitted less than 3GW of new coal power in 2018, compared with an annual average of 31GW between 2008-12 and 12GW for the 2013-17 period, it said.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1469 on: August 12, 2019, 07:57:12 PM »
Ken


Someone should tell the Polish about this.


It's like a Polish Joke being played out on the world's climate.
Terry

Ken Feldman

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1470 on: August 12, 2019, 09:58:27 PM »
Ken


Someone should tell the Polish about this.


It's like a Polish Joke being played out on the world's climate.
Terry

The economics for coal is so bad, that not even Poland is building them anymore.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/08/01/court-blocks-polish-coal-plant-win-climate-campaigners/

Quote
Poland’s “last coal-fired plant” may never go ahead, after a district court struck down the company resolution authorising construction on Thursday.

The ruling dealt a blow to the 1GW Ostrołęka C project, a joint venture between utilities Enea and Energa backed by the government.

Quote
Revived in 2016, the €1.2 billion project was part of the government’s plan to ensure the country’s energy security. It was presented as a necessary supplement for renewable energies that will partly replace a number of old coal power plants due to be taken offline by 2020.

With a controlling stake in Enea, the Polish government pushed through company approval despite concerns raised about the project’s economic viability. In September 2018, 22% of non-government shareholders voted against starting construction and 58% abstained. At project partner Energa, with 37% opposed the project.

The €1 trillion global asset manager Legal & General Investment Management, which is invested in both Enea and Energa, said that its clients faced “very high financial risks due to its uncertain policy support, rising carbon prices, unreliable capacity payments and threat of new technologies in energy generation,” Reuters reported at the time.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1471 on: August 13, 2019, 02:43:01 AM »
Queensland coal mine given permission to increase emissions:
Anglo American was approved to increase its annual emissions from 1.3m tonnes to more than 2.3m tonnes a year
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/13/coal-mine-increases-greenhouse-gas-emissions-without-penalty-foi-reveals
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vox_mundi

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1472 on: August 13, 2019, 03:29:10 PM »
Coal On the Road To Becoming Completely Uninsurable
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-coal-road-uninsurable.html

The announcement by Suncorp that it will no longer insure new thermal coal projects, along with a similar announcement by QBE Insurance a few months earlier, brings Australia into line with Europe where most major insurers have broken with coal.

US firms have been a little slower to move, but Chubb announced a divestment policy in July, and Liberty has confirmed it will not insure Australia's Adani project.

Other big firms such as America's AIG are coming under increasing pressure.

Even more than divestment of coal shares by banks and managed funds, the withdrawal of insurance has the potential to make coal mining and coal-fired power generation businesses unsustainable.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

petm

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1473 on: August 14, 2019, 02:32:45 AM »
Trump is trying to rollback coal emission regulations.

States Sue Trump Administration Over Rollback of Obama-Era Climate Rule

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/climate/states-lawsuit-clean-power-ace.html

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1474 on: August 17, 2019, 08:23:56 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/climate/coal-adani-india-australia.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
How one billionaire could keep three countries hooked on coal for decades
The story of a mining project in Australia helps to explain why the world keeps burning coal despite the profound risk it poses to the future.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1475 on: August 18, 2019, 03:03:05 AM »
“You notice the average size of retired plants going up over time. There are not a lot of small plants left, period.  Once you’ve cleared out all the old inefficient stuff, it’s logical the next wave would be bigger and have more implications for the climate.”

U.S.:  And Now, the Really Big Coal Plants Begin to Close - Scientific American
Quote
When the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona shuts down later this year, it will be one of the largest carbon emitters to ever close in American history.
The giant coal plant on Arizona’s high desert emitted almost 135 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2010 and 2017, according to an E&E News review of federal figures.

Its average annual emissions over that period are roughly equivalent to what 3.3 million passenger cars would pump into the atmosphere in a single year. Of all the coal plants to be retired in the United States in recent years, none has emitted more.

The Navajo Generating Station isn’t alone. It’s among a new wave of super-polluters headed for the scrap heap. Bruce Mansfield, a massive coal plant in Pennsylvania, emitted nearly 123 million tons between 2010 and 2017. It, too, will be retired by year’s end (Energywire, Aug. 12).

And in western Kentucky, the Paradise plant emitted some 102 million tons of carbon over that period. The Tennessee Valley Authority closed two of Paradise’s three units in 2017. It will close the last one next year (Greenwire, Feb. 14).

“It’s just the economics keep moving in a direction that favors natural gas and renewables. Five years ago, it was about the older coal plants becoming uneconomic,” said Dan Bakal, senior director of electric power at Ceres, which works with businesses to transition to clean energy. “Now, it’s becoming about every coal unit, and it’s a question of how long they can survive.” ...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/and-now-the-really-big-coal-plants-begin-to-close/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1476 on: August 18, 2019, 03:40:26 AM »
The Navajo Generating Facility has been polluting the South West for decades. Damn good news that it's finally being closed!


Terry

oren

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1477 on: August 18, 2019, 06:06:49 PM »
Damn good news indeed!
If I am not mistaken, a lot of its output goes towards water pumping, a partially dispatchable load, which makes its replacement with renewables easier.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1478 on: August 18, 2019, 06:14:36 PM »
Damn good news indeed!
If I am not mistaken, a lot of its output goes towards water pumping, a partially dispatchable load, which makes its replacement with renewables easier.


It's quite literally been a blight on the area for decades.
Visitors to Grand Canyon will be the first to note the change.
Terry

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1479 on: August 18, 2019, 07:40:19 PM »
USA Coal Production & Domestic Consumption graph attached. Source (EIA)
Source
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The data is very good - for every energy sector
This graph I made from their excel file, but they have lots of great ones on their site.

Not the sort of data to make Trump happy.

NB - Consumption less than production due to net exports
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TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1480 on: August 18, 2019, 10:31:36 PM »
^^
Production has to be the important number.
No one's digging it up to rebury it. :-[
Terry

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1481 on: August 18, 2019, 10:42:55 PM »
In 2018, U.S. coal exports were the highest in five years

Accounting for the slower fall in production versus consumption in the US.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38774

petm

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1482 on: August 18, 2019, 11:07:04 PM »
rboyd likes to cherry-pick news story about a few new coal plants being planned while ignoring the overall global trends of retirements far outpacing new construction.

Is he cherry picking, or are you?

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/india/coal-consumption



Quote
Coal India’s output rose 7% to 606.89 million tonnes in 2018-19, and is targeting a production of 660 million tonnes in 2019-20.
-- https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-coal/indias-annual-coal-demand-rises-9-1-to-nearly-1-bln-tonnes-minister-idUKL4N23V2RW

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1483 on: August 18, 2019, 11:50:44 PM »
Even with the new coal plants under construction in China and India, peak coal is projected within two years.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/peak-coal-in-sight-as-new-power-stations-drop-and-retirements-jump-20190327-p5186m.html

Quote
The global pace of new construction of power stations is slowing while retirement of ageing plants is accelerating, placing the world on track for "peak coal" capacity within a couple of years.

The annual Boom and Bust report, compiled by researchers including Global Energy Monitor and Greenpeace, found construction starts, pre-construction activity and completions of coal-fired plants each fell in 2018 for a third year in a row. New starts are down 84 per cent since 2015.

This is peak coal capacity, which is understandable given the previous decades of coal fired electricity generation building boom. Given the low capacity usage of plants in China and India it will be very easy to continue to expand coal consumption in those countries for many years without increases in coal fired electricity capacity. Given the coal-fired building boom in South East Asia etc. even peak global capacity and reduction will be a very slow process.

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1484 on: August 18, 2019, 11:58:23 PM »
So don’t look for coal to decrease anytime soon on the global stage.

Ok, its Forbes magazine, but still makes a lot of good points. For example, brutal logic but very true:

Quote
If you think we’ve been doing a reasonable job of curbing fossil fuel use, you are sadly mistaken. Global energy demand grew yet again in 2018, by 2.3%, its fastest pace in ten years. 70% of that was provided by fossil fuel, and only 30% by renewables and nuclear.

Quote
While the developed world is switching from coal to natural gas, the developing world sees coal as their savior. This not because coal is cheapest – it’s not.

Of all energy sources, coal is merely the easiest to set up. Coal is the easiest to install in a poor or developing country that has little existing infrastructure. It is the easiest to transport – by ship, rail and truck. It is straightforward to build a coal-fired power plant. And to operate it.

China is taking advantage of this situation with their ‘One Belt, One Road’ project, a 21st century version of the Silk Road that plans to build over a trillion dollars of infrastructure in developing countries, making those countries major commercial partners with, and majorly dependent on, China.

While it is easiest to build a natural gas-fired power plant, it is not at all easy to support it. Natural gas requires more infrastructure than any other energy source - for transporting the gas in pipelines, liquefying facilities and special terminals; and for storing it, often deep underground in geologic formations.

In the developing world, large-scale renewables are not effective since there is no baseload to support them, no back-up sources to load-follow the intermittency, and no extensive high-voltage distribution system. Hydro is possible in the developing world, but is limited physiographically.

No, coal is the obvious energy source to bring a country’s starving people up into the modern world. After that, they may have the luxury to care about the planet. And that’s the seemingly insurmountable hurdle facing any plan to mitigate global warming.

I feel like a stiff drink after that....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/07/20/so-you-think-were-reducing-fossil-fuel-think-again/#61bf5aab52fb

petm

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1485 on: August 19, 2019, 12:13:19 AM »
The remainder of that article is no less sobering. For instance,

Quote
For the first time in history, the United States is producing over 12 million barrels of crude oil per day. Wells in Texas, offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, and in Oklahoma reached record production levels.



Quote
Renewables have grown rapidly relative to themselves, but are still small with respect to fossil fuel growth. In fact, just the growth in fossil fuel last year exceeded the growth in renewables over the same time period. China emplaced over 6x the amount of renewable energy than the United States did, but that didn’t make a dent in their emissions since they emplaced a lot more coal and gas, and produced even more oil.

Quote
In the developing world, there are still over a billion people that have no access to electricity, whatsoever. 2 billion people still burn wood and manure as their main source of energy. And 3 billion more people will be born in the next 30 years.

This is a lot of people that will require a lot of energy. Just to survive. To have a reasonable life, they will need at least 3,000 kWhs per person per year. Together with everyone else, that’s about 35 trillion kWhs per year, 40% more than all the electricity produced in the world today, and the minimum amount of energy needed to eradicate global poverty and its evil stepchildren, war and terrorism.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2019, 12:23:14 AM by petm »

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1486 on: August 19, 2019, 12:31:08 AM »
Mapped: The world’s coal power plants

From Carbon Brief, one of the most authoritative climate change sites on the internet.

Quote
Since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired power capacity to around 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India. A further 236GW is being built and 336GW is planned.

More recently, 227GW has closed due to a wave of retirements across the EU and US. Combined with a rapid slowdown in the number of new plants being built, this means the number of coal units operating around the world fell for the first time in 2018, Carbon Brief analysis suggests.

Further in the article Carbon Brief states that although there are net unit closures, capacity is still increasing (i.e. closed plants have lower capacity than newly opened ones). They see a peak in capacity possible by 2022.

Quote
The chart shows how several countries, notably China, have been closing many hundreds of smaller, older and less efficient units, replacing them with larger and more efficient models.

Quote
This fall in investment means coal capacity growth is slowing, as the chart below left shows. In 2011, global coal capacity increased by 82GW. This figure was 75% lower in 2018, at 20GW.

Quote
There was another uptick in coal generation and CO2 emissions in 2018, driven by increases in China, though coal use overall remains below the 2014 peak. See below for more on coal’s status in key countries.

The share of planned new power plants is highly concentrated
1. China: 199GW (35% of all new planned capacity)
2. India: 94GW (16%)
3. Vietnam: 42GW (7%)
4. Turkey: 37GW (7%)
5. Indonesia: 25GW (4%)
6. Bangladesh: 21GW (4%)
7. Japan: 15GW (3%)
8. South Africa 14GW (2%)
9. Egypt 13GW (2%)
10. Philippines 13GW (2%)

Thats 82% of all planned new capacity, none of which is in Europe or North America, and only Japan would be counted as a rich country.

This need to be watched closely, as it would blow any chance of global coal generating capacity peaking in the next few years. From an Energy Security point of view it may make sense, as the coal is locally produced rather than shipped through the Malacca Straits and open to US interdiction in a crisis. A big jump in EV usage would also require a jump in electricity generation, switching from oil in ICEs to electricity (some of which will be coal generated) in EVs.

Quote
the China Electricity Council, which represents the power sector, has proposed raising a cap on coal capacity from 1,100GW in 2020 to 1,300GW in 2030. “It is unclear how the central government will respond,” Global Energy Monitor says.



Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1487 on: August 19, 2019, 02:53:17 PM »
Quote
Of all energy sources, coal is merely the easiest to set up. Coal is the easiest to install in a poor or developing country that has little existing infrastructure. It is the easiest to transport – by ship, rail and truck. It is straightforward to build a coal-fired power plant. And to operate it.

Solar is even easier to set up.  It doesn’t require ANY transport for fuel.  And it’s cheaper. 
Archaic thermal coal use is a bubble that will soon burst, in the face of new technology and the changing worldview.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1488 on: August 19, 2019, 04:11:39 PM »
Quote
Of all energy sources, coal is merely the easiest to set up. Coal is the easiest to install in a poor or developing country that has little existing infrastructure. It is the easiest to transport – by ship, rail and truck. It is straightforward to build a coal-fired power plant. And to operate it.

Solar is even easier to set up.  It doesn’t require ANY transport for fuel.  And it’s cheaper. 
Archaic thermal coal use is a bubble that will soon burst, in the face of new technology and the changing worldview.


End PV Tariffs
Terry

KiwiGriff

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1489 on: August 19, 2019, 05:03:03 PM »
Quote
Coal is the easiest to install in a poor or developing country that has little existing infrastructure. It is the easiest to transport – by ship, rail and truck. It is straightforward to build a coal-fired power plant. And to operate it.

Quote
In the developing world, large-scale renewables are not effective since there is no baseload to support them, no back-up sources to load-follow the intermittency, and no extensive high-voltage distribution system

Consider this was from the same source. It is contradictory and focused on the paradigm of centralized energy generation .
I set up and run my own power generation.
In the backyard with little more than basic tools like a hand saw and a screwdriver and the knowledge of how to wire a  circuit..
it supply's  my power 100% and needs no back up or distribution net work.
The total cost was less than the  cost of running a cable 350m from the road to my house. 
Distributed solar is cheap because you dont need to construct and maintain a grid or supply fuel.
What do the poor need? aircon, spapools?
Nope 1st light, 2nd fridge to keep food, 3rd  cooking .
1kw of panels will supply enough power for a family for thirty or more years .
The required technology is cheap and getting cheaper.
Big energy, Centralized generation is steam powered 1800's tech.
Get with this century.

gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1490 on: August 19, 2019, 05:35:27 PM »
Forbes is talking crap.
Unfortunately, Forbes' readers and their ilk still control most of the access to capital for electrification projects in the developing world.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1491 on: August 19, 2019, 06:07:59 PM »
When the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona shuts down later this year, it will be one of the largest carbon emitters to ever close in American history.
The giant coal plant on Arizona's high desert emitted almost 135 million metric tons of carbon dioxide between 2010 and 2017, according to an E&E News review of federal figures.
Its average annual emissions over that period are roughly equivalent to what 3.3 million passenger cars would pump into the atmosphere in a single year. Of all the coal plants to be retired in the United States in recent years, none has emitted more.
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060965553
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rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1492 on: August 19, 2019, 08:17:50 PM »
Forbes is talking crap.
Unfortunately, Forbes' readers and their ilk still control most of the access to capital for electrification projects in the developing world.

They may be talking crap, but as they do control access to capital they can make that crap self-fulfilling.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1493 on: August 19, 2019, 08:21:12 PM »
^^
Ramen!
Terry

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1494 on: August 22, 2019, 11:12:42 PM »
More coal miners screwed: mine closes, paychecks bounce

"Many families had already used their June 28 paycheck to pay mortgages, car loans, credit card bills and utilities only to find that they no longer had the money to cover those checks. On top of losing the money, many were hit with overdraft, bounced check and late fees."

"Chris said the company was also essentially stealing child support payments that they deducted from some of the miners’ paychecks. “You had some guys who were paying child support, the company was taking it out for their kids, but they never paid it out. They were taking the money but not giving it to the kids,” said Chris. "

"Jeffrey added, “Some of the guys were really scared. You lose your job and the next thing you know you’re going to jail” for not paying child support, he said." "

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/08/16/blac-a16.html

sidd



TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1495 on: August 23, 2019, 12:47:53 AM »
More coal miners screwed: mine closes, paychecks bounce

"Many families had already used their June 28 paycheck to pay mortgages, car loans, credit card bills and utilities only to find that they no longer had the money to cover those checks. On top of losing the money, many were hit with overdraft, bounced check and late fees."

"Chris said the company was also essentially stealing child support payments that they deducted from some of the miners’ paychecks. “You had some guys who were paying child support, the company was taking it out for their kids, but they never paid it out. They were taking the money but not giving it to the kids,” said Chris. "

"Jeffrey added, “Some of the guys were really scared. You lose your job and the next thing you know you’re going to jail” for not paying child support, he said." "

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/08/16/blac-a16.html

sidd


It happens more often than many would believe.
But at least we can sleep easy knowing that these miscreants are locked safely away. ???
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1496 on: August 23, 2019, 02:35:02 AM »
Japan builds coal plants abroad that wouldn’t be allowed at home: Report
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/08/japan-builds-coal-plants-abroad-that-wouldnt-be-allowed-at-home-report/
Quote
Japan is investing heavily in building coal-fired power plants overseas that would fall short of its own domestic emissions standards, according to a Greenpeace report.
Pollution from these plants, in places such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh, could potentially lead to 410,000 premature deaths over the 30-year lifetime of the plants.
Japan is the only country in the G7 group of wealthiest nations still actively building coal-fired plants domestically and overseas, which threatens international efforts to reduce carbon emissions and stall global warning.

A Texas company is closing 4 Illinois coal plants but plans to keep some of its dirtiest units running
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/environment/ct-illinois-coal-plant-shutdowns-20190822-5m5icfssrbdldgrggp6rd65brm-story.html
Quote
Illinois will take another step away from coal by the end of the year when a Texas company shutters four downstate power plants that burn the lung-damaging, climate-changing fossil fuel.

But under the terms of a deal Vistra Energy brokered with Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration, the company will be allowed to continue running some of its dirtiest coal plants while scuttling others that are relatively clean compared with what is left of a rapidly dwindling industry.

Australia targets India for coal exports amid China fallout
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-targets-india-for-coal-exports-amid-china-fallout-20190822-p52jqs.html
Quote
The Morrison government will target India's booming electricity market with Australian coal exports as it looks to buttress the economic fallout from a deteriorating relationship with China.

Resources Minister Matthew Canavan will fly into Calcutta on Monday to push billions of dollars in thermal coal exports, as a new report forecasts Australia stands to benefit with 4000 jobs and $3.4 billion if India matched China's Australian coal imports.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 03:18:03 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: Coal
« Reply #1497 on: August 24, 2019, 03:45:55 AM »
Washington court rejects bid to build coal export terminal on Columbia river.
It would give easy access for coal to pacific markets.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22082019/appeals-court-rules-coal-terminal-upholding-washington-states-decision-reject-it

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1498 on: August 24, 2019, 05:02:38 AM »
Washington court rejects bid to build coal export terminal on Columbia river.
It would give easy access for coal to pacific markets.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22082019/appeals-court-rules-coal-terminal-upholding-washington-states-decision-reject-it
Good news - especially if others join in.
Exporting coal to regions that may burn it with less efficiently is something that the government could halt with a flick of the pen.
If the right hand was holding the pen.
Terry

sidd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1499 on: August 24, 2019, 06:45:26 AM »
Two more gigawatts bite the dust:

" closures include the 915 MW Coffeen plant, 425 MW Duck Creek plant, 434 MW Havana plant and 294 MW Hennepin plant"

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/vistra-to-shutter-4-illinois-coal-plants-totaling-over-2000-mw/561518/

sidd