Coal

[Sebastian Jones]

In Australia, private companies, local and state governments are doing what the Federal Government should be leading - but is not. So progress is slower than it needs to be.
                                         
                           SNIP

EnergyAustralia announced on Wednesday it would shut the 1970s-built, 1,480-megawatt brown coal plant in mid-2028.
                                     more SNIPPAGE

Doubling the carbon tax would accelerate the schedule PDQ....Did they ever restore the carbo tax in OZ?
If not, bringing in a $50 carbon tax would do the trick.

[sidd]

Re: "About 500 workers at the plant and connected coalmine were told of the decision on Wednesday morning ... $10m workforce support package."

20K each, and take a hike. Better than nuttn, i suppose.

sidd

[NevB]

Re: "About 500 workers at the plant and connected coalmine were told of the decision on Wednesday morning ... $10m workforce support package."

20K each, and take a hike. Better than nuttn, i suppose.

sidd

They also have 7 years to find a new job. The Vic government will no doubt also be supportive with generous training programs.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/yallourn-power-station-early-closure/13233274

We should have replaced this brown coal power station years ago as we have some of the best wind and solar resources in the world. And no the ETS will not be restored any time soon as the RW poli's and media have made it too divisive.

[interstitial]

To me an announcement like this sounds more like we are going to try to keep this coal plant operating another 7 years rather than we are shutting it down early. Hopefully it shuts down sooner. Actual closures beat announcements of closures years away which may or may not happen.

[Sciguy]

Cross-posted from the oil and gas forum:

Hi All,

may i bring a new Report by RethinkX (Tony Seba et al.) to your Attention?

PDF: https://www.rethinkx.com/s/Rethinking-Energy-LCOE.pdf
Video:

In this report, we explain how the nonlinear dynamics of the SWB disruption of energy will rapidly drive the capacity factor of all conventional coal, gas, nuclear, and hydro power plants toward zero throughout the 2020s. The overwhelming majority of these conventional facilities will become financially unviable and their assets stranded over the next decade or so.

Costs for wind and solar plus batteries are beating fossil fuels currently and continuing to decrease.  Utilities are going to be shutting down their coal and gas power plants as soon as they can replace the power with wind and solar plus batteries.  This is why governments don't have to anger coal miners or gas workers by making grand announcements about curtailing these fossil fuel developments.  Fossil fuels will be joining the horse and buggy sooner than experts are predicting.

[interstitial]

rethinkx interpretation of capacity factors is also flawed see my post on this in oil and gas.
Remember LCOE is based on building new assets not existing assets. No one in the us is building new coal so not really that relevant. LACE is based on replacing existing assets.
In the US in republican strongholds very little renewables are on the grid. While economics are applying pressure in these areas every effort is made to discourage utilities from going green.

[Sciguy]

China is building more new coal than the rest of the world is currently retiring, so this is relevant.

Also, any new fossil fuel asset being built today will be a stranded asset by the end of the decade (there is more than enough existing infrastructure to meet the remaining demand during the energy transition). RethinkX is making the point that someone will be paying for those stranded assets.  Unless people vote in politicians who will represent their interests, it will be the taxpayers and rate payers who end up paying.

[interstitial]

i agree generaly that coal is bad my criticism is the argument is seriosly flawed. They claim hydro is on its way out for the same reason. this argument makes no sense. i do not expect much growth in hydro but i do not expect much decline either. Hydro is not going to become a stranded asset in the next decade or at any time in the future.  They apply an optomistic decline in coal to all energy sources they dont like. In the us nuclear is probably on a slow decline as power plants retire and are not replaced. Their is no evidence that nuclear power plants will have a lower capacity factor in the future.
rethinkx is using a flawed argument. I do believe that fossil fuel investments will quickly become stranded assets. New coal doese not make economic sense today that is why most new coal plans have been canceled. In China coal is built for political reasons not economic ones and even their growth is slowing.
Rising gas prices in the US and easing covid restrictions have increased coals  capacity factor in the last few months. In general increasing renewables will drive those coal capacity factors back down.

[gerontocrat]

IEA Update for Dec 20- https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-electricity-statistics

SIZE MATTERS.

In December China produced just over 500,000 GWH of electricity from coal - a record.

To put that in perspective, all OECD countries produced just under 200,000 GWH of electricity from coal.

If China doesn't come to the table for a major switch to renewables PDQ then.....

click images to enlarge

[interstitial]

Agreed if China does not reduce its coal use than there is nothing practically the rest of the world can do to compensate for it.

[kassy]

Compensating the other way:

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The U.S. increase stems from higher natural gas prices and the recovery from the pandemic. For China and India, it’s a reflection of rising electricity demand that’s keeping coal as the dominant source of power generation even as they add vast amounts of solar and wind capacity.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-world-s-three-biggest-coal-users-get-ready-to-burn-even-more-1.1577525

[gerontocrat]

Compensating the other way:

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

When the change will happen and coal killed is always next year. Meanwhile.....

[interstitial]

This is not good news obviously I was hoping for permanent cuts. However consider this. US Coal usage was 964 TWH in 2019. It dropped 25% to 773 TWH in 2020. The EIA estimates 897 TWH in 2021 and 924 TWH in 2022. All told that is a little more than 4% drop in coal from 2019 to 2022 if EIA estimates are accurate. EIA estimates show coal declining very little by 2040 so I don't believe their estimate.  The other story is natural gas use declined at the same time. I suspect a small net decrease in fossil fuels because of the large Dec 2020 installation of renewable energy assets. Data for Jan 2021 released on Mar 24th. Bloomberg the billionaire behind a major anticoal campaign and this story continues to pressure coal companies to close which is probably the reason for the tone of this story. It appears as though 2020's 24.7 GW of renewable energy made a dent in fossil fuel generation and this year installation is expected to increase from last year. Installation in 2020 of renewable energy was heavily weighted to the end of the year especially in December.

[interstitial]

the march data points are estimates based on generation so far this month.

[Sciguy]

While the EIA and other fossil fuel supporters continue to deny the death throes of coal, utilities continue to retire coal-fired power plants well before the end of their useful lives.  Because it saves them billions of dollars.

https://www.kpcnews.com/albionnewera/article_b92a0882-b50e-5714-b682-a107f5865e7d.html

NIPSCO to retire two coal-fired units in 2021
March 16, 2021

MERRILLVILLE — Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC, a subsidiary of NiSource Inc., announced recently plans to retire two coal-fired units representing half of its R.M. Schahfer Generating Station capacity in Wheatfield by the end of 2021.

The retirements are part of NIPSCO’s broader, long-term electric generation strategy and customer-centric plan referred to as “Your Energy, Your Future.” The strategy outlines the company’s plans to become 100 percent coal-free by 2028, while transitioning to reliable, lower-cost and more sustainable energy options.

NIPSCO projects the transition will result in an estimated $4 billion in cost savings over the long term.

[gerontocrat]

While the EIA and other fossil fuel supporters continue to deny the death throes of coal, utilities continue to retire coal-fired power plants well before the end of their useful lives.  Because it saves them billions of dollars.

The growth is not in the economically advanced countries but in the fast growing economies of Asia.

At the end of 2020 the USA produced about 75,000 GWH of electrcity per month from coal.
India plus China produced over 450,000 GWH of electricity per month from coal.
i.e. 6 times as much.

It is the Asian century.

I hope you are right - I am sure you are right - but the timeframe for limiting AGW to +1.5 or +2 degrees is very short indeed.

[Sciguy]

It will be interesting to see if China's carbon trading scheme has an impact on coal use.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2021/03/02/toothless-at-first-chinas-carbon-market-could-be-fearsome/?sh=66fa04c92af1

Mar 2, 2021
Toothless Initially, China’s New Carbon Market Could Be Fearsome
Scott Carpenter

The country’s long-awaited national emissions trading scheme officially launched on February 1, covering some 2,225 coal and gas power plants and other facilities across the country. Although initially the scheme is designed to do little more than encourage some number crunching, including accurate gathering and reporting of emissions data, the Ministry of Environment and Ecology, its administrator, will eventually begin tightly restricting the total emissions that China’s vast fleet of power plants is allowed to release, effectively firing up the engine of the biggest environmental scheme of its kind in the world.

The emissions trading scheme could play a starring role in this effort. China has no carbon tax, and to date its carbon reduction efforts have focused largely on the rapid buildout of renewable energy infrastructure. But even at their current dizzying pace of cost reductions, wind and solar power alone would not drive coal off the grid fast enough. By putting a price on carbon emissions, a marketplace to trade emissions allowances could accomplish the task—even if it might cause heartburn for many coal companies and investors.

Under the scheme’s initial rollout, some 2,225 coal- or gas-fired power plants will report their carbon emissions and total power output over a period from 2019 to 2020. Based on this and a few other metrics, such as “carbon intensity”—a relatively novel feature not seen in other such schemes outside China—each facility will be allocated a certain number of credits, known as allowances, which the facility must then surrender in exchange for the right to emit certain amounts of greenhouse gases. If a facility’s emissions subsequently exceed its allowances, it must buy more allowances from an exchange, set to be hosted in Shanghai. If a facility finds itself with more allowances than it needs to cover its own emissions, it can sell them on the exchange.

Eventually, the scheme will expand to cover not just the power sector but other sectors as well, including petrochemicals, building materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, paper and domestic aviation. (Other sectors, such as transport, agriculture and construction, are still excluded.

For all the unknowns about the scheme, though, one thing is clear, most analysts emphasize: China’s seriousness about achieving its 2060 net-zero carbon emissions target. And while the precise path to get there yet hasn’t been laid down, the policy architecture is gradually being lowered into place.

[kassy]

Methane Spewing Mines Are as Bad For The Climate as Their Coal

New coal mines are leaking methane gases that are in some cases just as destructive to the environment as the pollution released from burning the coal itself, according to a new study.

...

Methane emissions from coal have received much less attention from researchers and governments than methane emissions from oil and gas,” researchers said in the report. “The gap in attention has resulted in a deficit in implementation of measures to mitigate what by all estimates is one of the most significant sources of greenhouse gases.”
...

Coal mining accounts for about 9% of human-related methane emissions, according to the Global Methane Initiative.

Methane on averages increases total greenhouse gas emissions at major operating mines by about 20% when measured on a 20-year horizon, Global Energy Monitor found, with that level rising up to 50% in the gassiest mines.

Global Energy Monitor examined potential methane releases at 432 proposed new or expanded coal mines, and found that at the gassiest of them the leaks could account for half of their total greenhouse gas impact. If all were built, about 13.5 million tons of methane would be released annually, doing the damage of an equivalent of more than 1 billion tons of CO2.

By far the largest potential source is China, where 140 new mines are under development. But the biggest single project is Valiant Resources’ Hutton development in Australia, which would produce the annual equivalent of 60 million tons of CO2 if built out to full ambitions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-19/coal-mines-seen-posing-additional-climate-threat-with-gas-leaks

[gerontocrat]

One more coal plant bites the dust - next year

https://news.sky.com/story/climate-coal-fired-power-nears-uk-extinction-as-edf-to-shut-west-burton-a-12253548

Climate: Coal-fired power nears UK extinction as EDF to shut West Burton A plant

West Burton A began generating electricity in the year England last won a football World Cup and will be decommissioned next year.

EDF Energy has announced plans to shut down its last remaining coal-fired power station in the UK - as it eyes a larger contribution from nuclear to meet the country's electricity needs.

The French company said the West Burton A plant, near Retford in Nottinghamshire, would be decommissioned from September 2022 - two years ahead of a government climate-based ambition for an end to coal-based power generation.

EDF said the site, which houses four 500-megawatt capacity coal units, would stay open for the next 18 months only to meet its agreed commitments to the grid.

[gerontocrat]

And as one coal plant bites the dust...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/japan-eyes-overseas-coal-units-in-bangladesh-ignores-climate-pressure-101616479072142.html
Japan eyes overseas coal units in Bangladesh, ignores climate pressure

The Japan International Cooperation Agency said in an email it’s conducting an environmental and social impact assessment for an expansion to the Matarbari power plant.

One of the last countries in the world to support coal-fired generation overseas is considering financing new capacity in Bangladesh.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency said in an email it’s conducting an environmental and social impact assessment for an expansion to the Matarbari power plant. JICA already agreed to finance the first 1.2 gigawatt phase of the project that is scheduled for completion in 2024, but hasn’t decided if it will finance the expansion, which would double the facility’s capacity.

“In spite of difficulties, my government decided to do a survey and research on unit 3 and 4,” Naoki Ito, the Japanese ambassador to Bangladesh, said Thursday during a webinar hosted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Bangladesh, referring to the expansion. Changing climate policies have led the country to scrap dozens of plans for new coal plants, he said.

Japan agreed in August to support expanding the Matarbari plant with three additional units planned in a second phase of construction, according to a Japanese government official, who asked not to be identified citing policy

[sidd]

Coal giant builds solar:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56506529

sidd

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

Latest monthly data from the EIA of the USA

US Coal Production and Consumption is less than 50% of what it was 10 years ago.
Despite a large December uptick in coal consumed for electrcicity, coal production in February 21 was 15% less than 12 months ago.

[Sciguy]

China now generates more than half of the world's coal-fired power.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-china-coal-idUSKBN2BK0PZ

March 28, 2021
China generated over half world's coal-fired power in 2020: study

By Reuters Staff

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China generated 53% of the world’s total coal-fired power in 2020, nine percentage points more that five years earlier, despite climate pledges and the building of hundreds of renewable energy plants, a global data study showed on Monday.

Although China added a record 71.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind power and 48.2 GW of solar last year, it was the only G20 nation to see a significant jump in coal-fired generation, said Ember, the London-based energy and climate research group.

China’s coal-fired generation rose by 1.7% or 77 terawatt-hours, enough to bring its share of global coal power to 53%, up from 44% in 2015, the report showed.

New coal-fired power installations reached 38.4 GW in 2020, more than three times the amount built by the rest of the world, according to a February research report.

[Sciguy]

Coal's last lifeline is now China.  End Coal's summary of 2020 for the coal industry makes that abundantly clear.

https://endcoal.org/2021/04/new-report-boom-and-bust-2021-tracking-the-global-coal-plant-pipeline/

New Report – Boom and Bust 2021: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline
Posted April 5, 2021 by Christine Shearer

NEW REPORT: Record Coal Plant Retirements In The U.S. and EU Offset By China Coal Plant Boom In 2020

 U.S. Coal Retirements Under Trump Exceed Obama

San Francisco, CA–A steep increase in coal plant development in China offset a retreat from coal in the rest of the world in 2020, resulting in the first increase in global coal capacity development since 2015, according to a new report led by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). In total, China was home to 85% of the 87.4 gigawatts (GW) of proposed new coal plants in 2020.

China commissioned 38.4 GW of new coal plants in 2020, comprising 76% of the global total (50.3 GW). Outside China, 11.9 GW was commissioned and, taking into account closures, the global coal fleet outside China declined by 17.2 GW in 2020 – the third year in a row that coal power capacity outside China shrank.

Outside China, the coal plant development pipeline is collapsing in Asia, as Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia have announced plans to cut up to 62.0 GW of planned coal power. GEM estimates the policies will leave 25.2 GW of coal power capacity remaining in pre-construction planning in the four countries—an 80% decline from the 125.5 GW planned there just five years ago, in 2015.

New construction starts fell 5% from 28.3 GW in 2019 to 27.0 GW in 2020. However, outside of China, new construction starts fell by 74%, from 21.1 GW in 2019 to 5.5 GW in 2020.

[interstitial]

US drilling has been increasing in the last few months as noted by the doubling of active rigs since 2020 lows. If this drilling activity continues natural gas prices may fall back down to early 2020 levels. If natural gas prices remain near $2.50 coal may stabilize around 2020 consumption levels but if it returns closer to the $2 level I expect coal to fall even faster. In January and February coal consumption was higher in 2021 than 2020.Given coal capacity factor is near 45% around December of 2020 I expect coal closures to continue this year unless natural gas climbs above $2.70.

[interstitial]

In a typical move for resource extractors "more responsible" companies are dumping their financial liabilities on to companies that will likely squeeze the last dollar out of the resource than go bankrupt.


https://www.miningweekly.com/article/stanmore-jv-buys-peabody-assets-in-qld-2021-04-15
 
Peabody sells two coal mines for 1.25 million and assumption of an estimated 25.7 million rehabilitation cost. They are selling to small companies Stanmore coal and m resources. Peabody will reimburse 12.5 million of rehabilitations costs over the next two years.
My impression: The mines started loosing money in the short term with liabilities massively exceed value. If you include liabilities they have been loosing money for much longer. Peabody shuts down the mines. They get massive tax benefits for the losses. It is clearly not profitable but they do not want to pay full liability costs. Someone else starts a small coal company either in direct response to or just recognizes the opportunity to make money on this legal scam. Even if their were no cleanup responsibilities the mine can not be profitably run. If they give the mine away or do nothing to clean them up they will get sued and lose the full clean up costs. They figure out a minimal clean up plan. It is designed to hide the environmental damage mostly for 5 to 10 years and cost as little as possible. No one will complain because it looks like they are cleaning it up. It will likely have the affect of dramatically increasing clean up costs in a decade or so. IMO essentially Peabody is paying another company to pretend to run the coal mine while doing as little as possible to clean it up. It structured in a way so that they will probably get away with claiming they sold it in good faith and paid the other company to clean up much of it. If the other company cut corners in cleanup it it is not their fault or responsibility. IMO the small company that "buys" it is designed to earn short term income but will have only liabilities when it collapses. In the short term they reopen the mine. This makes out of work miners and local politicians happy with the company and they will provide concessions to get the mine going again. The miners will come back for lower pay and benefits. The local and regional governments will provide concessions for the mines. The company will avoid investing anything in equipment or maintenance. This will allow them to recoup their "purchase cost" and between mining and being paid for cleanup they will make a some money in the short term. Anything that can be will be sold off. The miner will operate as much on credit as possible. Shortly after Peabody finishes its clean up obligation payments the small mining company will probably declare bankruptcy.  All the way up to the point the small company goes bankrupt few are willing to criticize the company that is keeping the mine open. Vocal critics are quickly shouted down and ostracized.


The small companies main function is in essence not mining but liability avoidance. They do not buy mines to turn them around. They are in essence hired by large miners to avoid liability.

[gerontocrat]

In a typical move for resource extractors "more responsible" companies are dumping their financial liabilities on to companies that will likely squeeze the last dollar out of the resource than then go bankrupt.

Guess who got the legislature to write the laws that legalise this robbery?

These days things have moved on...

You elected them to write new laws.
They’re letting corporations do it instead.

Each year, state lawmakers across the U.S. introduce thousands of bills dreamed up and written by corporations, industry groups and think tanks.

Disguised as the work of lawmakers, these so-called “model” bills get copied in one state Capitol after another, quietly advancing the agenda of the people who write them.

ABOUT THIS REPORT
This story was produced as part of a collaboration between USA TODAY, The Arizona Republic and the Center for Public Integrity. More than 30 reporters across the country were involved in the two-year investigation, which identified copycat bills in every state. The team used a unique data-analysis engine built on hundreds of cloud computers to compare millions of words of legislation provided by LegiScan.


A two-year investigation by USA TODAY, The Arizona Republic and the Center for Public Integrity reveals for the first time the extent to which special interests have infiltrated state legislatures using model legislation.

USA TODAY and the Republic found at least 10,000 bills almost entirely copied from model legislation were introduced nationwide in the past eight years, and more than 2,100 of those bills were signed into law.

The investigation examined nearly 1 million bills in all 50 states and Congress using a computer algorithm developed to detect similarities in language. That search – powered by the equivalent of 150 computers that ran nonstop for months – compared known model legislation with bills introduced by lawmakers.

The phenomenon of copycat legislation is far larger. In a separate analysis, the Center for Public Integrity identified tens of thousands of bills with identical phrases, then traced the origins of that language in dozens of those bills across the country.

Model bills passed into law have made it harder for injured consumers to sue corporations. They’ve called for taxes on sugar-laden drinks. They’ve limited access to abortion and restricted the rights of protesters.

In all, these copycat bills amount to the nation’s largest, unreported special-interest campaign, driving agendas in every statehouse and touching nearly every area of public policy.

The investigation reveals that fill-in-the-blank bills have in some states supplanted the traditional approach of writing legislation from scratch. They have become so intertwined with the lawmaking process that the nation’s top sponsor of copycat legislation, a member of the Pennsylvania General Assembly, claimed to have signed on to 72 such bills without knowing or questioning their origin.

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/state-politics/copy-paste-legislate/you-elected-them-to-write-new-laws-theyre-letting-corporations-do-it-instead/

https://eu.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2019/04/03/abortion-gun-laws-stand-your-ground-model-bills-conservatives-liberal-corporate-influence-lobbyists/3162173002/

And it is not just Republicans.
Another reason Neven started the thread "the problem with Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out"

[interstitial]

Compensating the other way:

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The U.S. increase stems from higher natural gas prices and the recovery from the pandemic. For China and India, it’s a reflection of rising electricity demand that’s keeping coal as the dominant source of power generation even as they add vast amounts of solar and wind capacity.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-world-s-three-biggest-coal-users-get-ready-to-burn-even-more-1.1577525

So far in 2021 at least all increases in US coal generation have come at the expense of natural gas generation. While in the first quarter of 2021 total generation was essentially flat (up 0.17% 1.6 twh from 2020) generation of natural gas and coal together was also flat (down 0.08% 0.4 twh from 2020). Renewable generation in the first quarter of 2021 was up 12.5% 14.0 twh from 2020. Unfortunately declines elsewhere stole renewables gains. Hydro declined 7.4% 5.6 twh and nuclear shuttered  capacity resulting in nuclear generation declining 2.5% 5.0 twh. If you are looking for the other 1.4 twh it is in the total generation. Total generation should be up 3 twh from 2020 but I do not get numbers for minor sources of generation until 2 months afterward.

[interstitial]

So far in 2021 at least all increases in US coal generation have come at the expense of natural gas generation. While in the first quarter of 2021 total generation was essentially flat (up 0.17% 1.6 twh from 2020) generation of natural gas and coal together was also flat (down 0.08% 0.4 twh from 2020). Renewable generation in the first quarter of 2021 was up 12.5% 14.0 twh from 2020. Unfortunately declines elsewhere stole renewables gains. Hydro declined 7.4% 5.6 twh and nuclear shuttered  capacity resulting in nuclear generation declining 2.5% 5.0 twh. If you are looking for the other 1.4 twh it is in the total generation. Total generation should be up 3 twh from 2020 but I do not get numbers for minor sources of generation until 2 months afterward.

I suppose another way to look at it is natural gas capacity was built to replace the shuttered nuclear generation and it has been replaced by renewable energy instead

[Sciguy]

China could save $1.6 trillion by switching from coal to renewables.  However, this article fails to mention how the 2.7 million people working in coal mines, not to mention the workers building and operating the coal-fired power plants, would be re-employed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/china-could-save-1point6-trillion-by-moving-away-from-coal-report.html

China could save $1.6 trillion by replacing coal with clean energy, report finds
Published Fri, Apr 23 2021
Abigail Ng

China could stand to benefit economically if it can successfully replace coal with renewable energy, according to a report by financial analytics company TransitionZero.

The study looked at the costs, or savings, that the Chinese government would incur if it replaced its existing coal-fired power plants with zero-carbon alternatives.

“What we found is China could save $1.6 trillion by doing that,” said Matthew Gray, co-CEO of TransitionZero, a London-based firm.

According to data from the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), there are 1,082 coal-fired power plants operating in China. Additionally, 92 plants are under construction and 135 are in the pre-construction phase.

[etienne]

China could save $1.6 trillion by switching from coal to renewables. However, this article fails to mention how the 2.7 million people working in coal mines, not to mention the workers building and operating the coal-fired power plants, would be re-employed.

You can't think that way, it's like being sad for the lumberjack that is unemployed because there are no more forests. Saving the planet is the first priority if we want a future. it's why we need a state that can help these people to find new jobs.

[gerontocrat]

from the USA - https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/ January data Update

US Coal takes its time dying, a brief, or not so brief, remission before final expiry?

[Sciguy]

Japan has cancelled it's last coal project.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-cancels-last-coal-power-024141301.html

Japan Cancels Its Last Coal Power Plant Project
Stephen Stapczynski
Mon, April 26, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- A joint venture in Japan has scrapped plans for a coal-fired power plant, leaving the country with no new construction on the horizon as companies drop the dirty fuel amid tighter emissions rules and strong growth outlook for renewables.

Kansai Electric Power Co. and Marubeni Corp. won’t move forward with a 1.3 gigawatt coal power project in Akita prefecture that was slated to begin operations in 2024, a unit of Kansai Electric said Tuesday.

While there are still several coal projects currently under construction, Japan has no plans for additional new plants, according to BloombergNEF. A 1.2 gigawatt coal project in Yamaguchi prefecture was also canned earlier this month as electricity demand was expected to remain flat, while renewable energy expands.

Japan won’t build any new coal plants due to “lowering power demand, tighter environmental regulations and additional costs to comply with ‘efficient’ and ‘clean’ coal projects,” Olympe Mattei, an analyst at BloombergNEF, said by email.

[interstitial]

from the USA - https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/ January data Update

US Coal takes its time dying, a brief, or not so brief, remission before final expiry?

natural gas prices have been up since drilling stopped for covid now drilling is resuming prices should come down allowing coal to retire.

[Sciguy]

China now plans peak coal consumption in 2025 and phasing it down thereafter.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-xi-says-worlds-largest-polluter-will-phase-down-coal-consumption-11619105880

China’s Xi says world’s largest polluter will phase down coal consumption
Last Updated: April 22, 2021
 By Rachel Koning Beals

China vows to start phasing down coal consumption from the 2026-2030 period as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, President Xi Jinping told the U.S.-led Climate Leaders’ Summit Thursday.

“We will strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025) and phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030),” Xi told the virtual gathering.

China is the largest coal consumer and continues to approve new coal projects. This latest pledge implies a peak in its use in 2025.

[interstitial]

China now plans peak coal consumption in 2025 and phasing it down thereafter.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-xi-says-worlds-largest-polluter-will-phase-down-coal-consumption-11619105880

China’s Xi says world’s largest polluter will phase down coal consumption
Last Updated: April 22, 2021
 By Rachel Koning Beals

China vows to start phasing down coal consumption from the 2026-2030 period as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, President Xi Jinping told the U.S.-led Climate Leaders’ Summit Thursday.

“We will strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025) and phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030),” Xi told the virtual gathering.

China is the largest coal consumer and continues to approve new coal projects. This latest pledge implies a peak in its use in 2025.

interpretation
no limits for five years, minor limits to drive out less desirable operations for next five years. real change put off at least a decade

[gerontocrat]

China’s Xi says world’s largest polluter will phase down coal consumption
Last Updated: April 22, 2021
 By Rachel Koning Beals

“We will strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th five-year plan period (2021-2025) and phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030),” Xi told the virtual gathering.

China is the largest coal consumer and continues to approve new coal projects. This latest pledge implies a peak in its use in 2025.

interpretation
no limits for five years, minor limits to drive out less desirable operations for next five years. real change put off at least a decade

another interpretation
Makes the 43% reduction in CO2 emissions this decade (i.e. the 2020s) just about impossible.

Makes it even more imperative for the rest of the world to pull its finger out and DO SOMETHING.

[BeeKnees]

Greece has annonced last coal plant to close in 2025

https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/greece-confirms-last-coal-plant-will-be-shut-in-2025/

[interstitial]

Carbon tax on imports?

[Sciguy]

The US government is funding pilot projects to extract rare earth minerals from coal waste.

https://grist.org/technology/the-plan-to-turn-coal-country-into-a-rare-earth-powerhouse/

The plan to turn coal country into a rare earth powerhouse
With plans for a Made-in-America renewable energy transformation, Biden administration ramps up efforts to extract rare earth minerals from coal waste.
May 26, 2021

At an abandoned coal mine just outside the city of Gillette, Wyoming, construction crews are getting ready to break ground on a 10,000-square-foot building that will house state-of-the-art laboratories and manufacturing plants. Among the projects at the facility, known as the Wyoming Innovation Center, will be a pilot plant that aims to takes coal ash — the sooty, toxic waste left behind after coal is burned for energy — and use it to extract rare earths, elements that play an essential role in everything from cell phones and LED screens to wind turbines and electric cars.

The pilot plant in Wyoming is a critical pillar of an emerging effort led by the Department of Energy, or DOE, to convert the toxic legacy of coal mining in the United States into something of value. Similar pilot plants and research projects are also underway in states including West Virginia, North Dakota, Utah, and Kentucky. If these projects are successful, the Biden administration hopes that places like Gillette will go from being the powerhouses of the fossil fuel era to the foundation of a new domestic supply chain that will build tomorrow’s energy systems.

And while nobody knows exactly how much rare earth material there is hiding in coal ash piles, waste ponds, and acid mine drainage sites around the country, Alvin says that in the Appalachian region alone, an estimated 6,000 metric tons of rare earths flow through acid mine drainage sites each year. The United States’ annual rare earth demand stands at around 12,000 to 13,000 metric tons.

The DOE’s recent $19 million in funding aims to make those rough estimates more precise. Each of the research groups that received a grant will spend the next two years assessing the rare earth resources in coal deposits and coal waste products in a different part of the country, as well as figuring out how to get local businesses and industries plugged into a rare earth-from-coal supply chain. If the initial findings are promising, projects will receive additional funds to start implementing their plans through new pilot plants, innovation centers, and workforce training. In total, the DOE plans to allocate $122 million to the effort over 10 years. Scott Quillinan, the director of the Center for Economic Geology Research at the University of Wyoming, which received two of the 13 grants, thinks that’s a realistic timeline for bringing this nascent technology to commercial readiness.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

Up to April this year coal in the US of A is in an unwelcome remission from an early death.

OK, so it is much to do with high natural gas prices but it has happened and is happening.

[interstitial]

If natural gas prices remain high (around $3 /mmbtu) for much longer coal generation could more than double to nearly 160 twh by July from 61 twh estimated for May (based on 25/31 days). While that seems unlikely it is a possibility. It is more probable that coal generation hits 90-100 twh by my guess/estimation. These high gas prices do drive change one 500 mw coal plant closure was delayed by two years since the last EIA report. It also goes to show that really it is economics more than activism changing the minds of decision holders in the power industry. It is also frustrating in my opinion because natural gas prices in general are still overly correlated with oil prices despite substantially different fundamentals. About half of new renewable energy this year, roughly 15 gw, will be used to displace 5 gw of retiring nuclear energy.

[interstitial]

US coal mine employment is down to 39507
https://ieefa.org/coal-employment-continues-slide-even-as-production-has-ticked-upward/
At this point there are far more people who were employed in coal than are employed in coal. I think it was 60000 employed last year last year.

[interstitial]

Carbon capture is stupid and investors know it.
IEEFA U.S.: Investors hesitate to fund San Juan Generating Station CCS retrofit
https://ieefa.org/ieefa-u-s-investors-hesitate-to-fund-san-juan-generating-station-ccs-retrofit/

[interstitial]

Coal lost 8.2 gw of contracts in the PJM power pool capacity market auction. This happened despite Trump meddling with requirements to favor coal plants and discourage renewables. Biden wants to rewrite these rules to give renewables a fair chance. This auction provides money to power plants to guarantee capacity during high demand ready when called on. This is meant to be a market solution to keep some resources available even if they are rarely used. Chicago contracts fell from $195.55 to $68.96 per megawatt per day. That has to hurt. Loosing out on these contracts does not guarantee coal plant closures but eliminating a major revenue source for marginal plants cant help.
nuclear added 4.5 gw and solar wind added 1.3 gw and natural gas added 3.4 gw.



https://www.gulf-times.com/story/693165/Plunging-payouts-on-top-US-power-grid-hit-coal-nuc

[Sciguy]

India is rapidly losing its appetite for new coal plants.   There have been no new plants announced in the past 12 months and the 29 GW in pre-construction has not moved into construction.

Renewables are so cheap that the 33 GW of new coal-fired capacity in construction will become stranded assets long before the costs of building them are recouped.  They're stranded assets.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/06/07/cheaper-renewables-could-leave-new-indian-coal-assets-stranded/

Cheaper renewables could leave new Indian coal assets stranded

A newly published Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis report looks at the viability of under-construction coal-fired power plants and evaluates the risk of building additional coal-fired capacity in India’s electricity system.
June 7, 2021 Uma Gupta

Most of India’s 33 GW of coal-fired power capacity currently under construction – as well as another 29 GW in the pre-construction stage – will end up stranded, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

“Coal-fired power simply cannot compete with the ongoing cost reductions of renewables. Solar tariffs in India are now below even the fuel costs of running most existing coal-fired power plants,” said author Kashish Shah, Research Analyst at IEEFA.

Compared to renewables with almost zero marginal generation costs, coal-fired generation with inflationary coal and coal transportation costs is a significantly expensive option for distribution companies. Financial distress in India’s power distribution sector makes thermal power purchase agreements (PPAs) even more unbankable.

“In the last 12 months, no new coal-fired power plants have been announced, and there has been no movement in the 29 GW of pre-construction capacity. This reflects the lack of financing available for new coal-fired power projects, and also the flattening of electricity demand growth,” Shah said.

[riley]

World's coal producers now planning more than 400 new mines

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/worlds-coal-producers-now-planning-more-than-400-new-mines-research-2021-06-03/

The world's coal producers are currently planning as many as 432 new mine projects with 2.28 billion tonnes of annual output capacity, research published on Thursday showed, putting targets for slowing global climate change at risk.

China, Australia, India and Russia account for more than three quarters of the new projects, according to a study by U.S. think-tank Global Energy Monitor. China alone is now building another 452 million tonnes of annual production capacity, it said.

"While the IEA (International Energy Agency) has just called for a giant leap toward net zero emissions, coal producers' plans to expand capacity 30% by 2030 would be a leap backward," said Ryan Driskell Tate, Global Energy Monitor research analyst and lead author of the report.

The report said four Chinese provinces and regions alone - Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Shanxi - account for nearly a quarter of all the proposed new coal mine capacity.

China has pledged to bring its emissions to a peak by 2030 and to net zero by 2060. President Xi Jinping said earlier this year that the country would start to cut coal production, but not until 2026.

Full Study has a lot more details and is worth checking out:

Deep Trouble: Tracking Global Coal Mine Proposals
https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/deep-trouble-tracking-global-coal-mine-proposals/

SUMMARY / KEY FINDINGS

Coal producers need to halt all new mines and mine extensions and reduce output 11% each year through 2030 to stand any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C and achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement. Yet rather than winding down production, coal operators continue to propose and build new mines.

This report provides the results of the first comprehensive global survey of coal mine proposals. Based on the survey, 2,277 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new coal mining capacity is currently under development, representing nearly 30% of 2019 global production levels (8,135 Mt). While three-fourths (1,663 mtpa) of proposed coal mine capacity is in the early stages of planning and thus vulnerable to cancellation, the remaining quarter (614 mtpa) of proposed mine capacity is already under construction. The prospect of a low-carbon transition puts these projects at risk of up to $91 billion USD in stranded assets. But if they proceed, without  unprecedented cutbacks in global production over the next decade, proposed capacity could boost supply to over four times a 1.5°C-compliant pathway.

One of many interesting observations from the report:

If all proposed coal mining capacity is realized, coal production in 2030 will be over four times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway, and nearly three times the 2°C-compliant pathway, as the proposals raise production to 10,106 Mt by 2030, while the UNEP reduction requires production be limited to between 2,400 and 3,600 Mt by 2030. Even if new capacity is limited to what is currently under construction and all other planned capacity is cancelled, coal production in 2030 will still be 8,443 Mt, over three times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway and over two times the 2°C-compliant pathway.

Importantly, every year of increased production means steeper cuts are needed to meet the required decline in coal production. Even if future coal mining production is limited to what is currently under construction (yellow line), coal production would need to be cut 35 to 50% by 2025 and 55 to 70% by 2030 to meet the Paris-compatible pathways, after which holding warming to well below 2°C may be out of reach.

[Sigmetnow]

As Illinois Strains to Pass a Major Clean Energy Law, a Big Coal Plant Stands in the Way
The Prairie State power plant may be forced to close much sooner than owners expected, but communities it provided with electricity could have to pay for it for years to come.

If the Prairie State plant is forced to shut down by 2035, as legislators have proposed, it would begin the final chapter of a saga that led to the construction of one of the country’s last new coal plants, one that became a major source of air pollution.
…
If the plant is forced to close, they, as owners, will have to continue repaying the debt even as they have to find and pay for replacement sources of electricity that could lead to much higher electricity bills, a scenario that is fueling reluctance by some to pass the bill.

A Costly Polluter 
Prairie State has been the single biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions in Illinois, releasing 12.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2019, the most recent year for which federal data are available. The plant ranks ninth in the country for carbon dioxide releases.

No other power plant in the state comes close to Prairie State’s emissions. And most of the other coal-fired plants already are scheduled to close, including all five plants owned by Vistra Corp, which has said it will shut them down by 2027.
“It’s not particularly a surprise that this plant wasn’t going to live out a typical lifespan,” said Emily Grubert, an energy systems researcher at Georgia Tech.

The plant’s combination of high emissions and high costs means it’s difficult to justify keeping it open, Grubert said.
It cost about $5 billion for construction, including about $1 billion in cost overruns.

Prairie State, which began operating in 2012, was one of the last large, coal-fired power plants built in the United States before market forces shifted against coal because other sources of electricity — like natural gas, wind and solar energy — were becoming less expensive, and because of the rising likelihood that the state or federal government would pass stricter emissions limits.

Among this last generation of coal-fired electric plants, Prairie State is in a category of its own because it initially was developed by a coal company, Peabody Energy. The idea was to buy coal from an adjacent mine, with Peabody selling the electricity through long-term contracts with municipalities and rural electric cooperatives that might have been less well equipped to assess the risks than large energy companies would be.

The plant’s customers and co-owners include about 200 communities in a footprint that stretches from Missouri to Virginia.
…
In 2007, Naperville, Illinois, signed a deal with Prairie State for electricity that ends in 2035, which is also the schedule for paying off the bonds. So closing the plant by that date would have less of an impact than it would on, say, Batavia, Illinois, which took one of the biggest stakes in the coal plant.

Batavia is on the hook until 2042 to keep paying off the debt it incurred through bond sales to buy in to Prairie State. Batavia officials are unhappy with the deal struck years ago. And they say any legislative mandate to close the plant should also include provisions to help the governments that would be affected. 

Even if the plant is closed, local utilities are on the hook for millions of dollars a year in bond debt, said Laura Newman, Batavia’s city administrator. …

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04062021/illinois-clean-energy-coal-plant-prairie-state/

[interstitial]

As Illinois Strains to Pass a Major Clean Energy Law, a Big Coal Plant Stands in the Way
The Prairie State power plant may be forced to close much sooner than owners expected, but communities it provided with electricity could have to pay for it for years to come.

This article should focus more on why it is stupid to build what will predictably be stranded assets. They did something stupid and now want a government bailout. If anybody should be penalized for this action it is Peabody.

[Sigmetnow]

As Illinois Strains to Pass a Major Clean Energy Law, a Big Coal Plant Stands in the Way
The Prairie State power plant may be forced to close much sooner than owners expected, but communities it provided with electricity could have to pay for it for years to come.

This article should focus more on why it is stupid to build what will predictably be stranded assets. They did something stupid and now want a government bailout. If anybody should be penalized for this action it is Peabody.

Yes, my thought when I saw this project was that it was simply a method for Peabody to guarantee itself an income for many years as it saw its business fading away.  (And wow, amazing that so many municipalities were so ignorant about — or fearful of — renewables that they fell for that pitch.)