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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1850 on: March 11, 2021, 05:24:21 AM »
In Australia, private companies, local and state governments are doing what the Federal Government should be leading - but is not. So progress is slower than it needs to be.
                                         
                           SNIP

EnergyAustralia announced on Wednesday it would shut the 1970s-built, 1,480-megawatt brown coal plant in mid-2028.
                                     more SNIPPAGE


Doubling the carbon tax would accelerate the schedule PDQ....Did they ever restore the carbo tax in OZ?
If not, bringing in a $50 carbon tax would do the trick.

sidd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1851 on: March 11, 2021, 08:46:20 AM »
Re: "About 500 workers at the plant and connected coalmine were told of the decision on Wednesday morning ... $10m workforce support package."

20K each, and take a hike. Better than nuttn, i suppose.

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NevB

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1852 on: March 11, 2021, 02:27:37 PM »
Re: "About 500 workers at the plant and connected coalmine were told of the decision on Wednesday morning ... $10m workforce support package."

20K each, and take a hike. Better than nuttn, i suppose.

sidd

They also have 7 years to find a new job. The Vic government will no doubt also be supportive with generous training programs.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/yallourn-power-station-early-closure/13233274

We should have replaced this brown coal power station years ago as we have some of the best wind and solar resources in the world. And no the ETS will not be restored any time soon as the RW poli's and media have made it too divisive.

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1853 on: March 11, 2021, 11:53:13 PM »
To me an announcement like this sounds more like we are going to try to keep this coal plant operating another 7 years rather than we are shutting it down early. Hopefully it shuts down sooner. Actual closures beat announcements of closures years away which may or may not happen.

Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1854 on: March 12, 2021, 07:04:01 PM »
Cross-posted from the oil and gas forum:

Hi All,

may i bring a new Report by RethinkX (Tony Seba et al.) to your Attention?

PDF: https://www.rethinkx.com/s/Rethinking-Energy-LCOE.pdf
Video:

Quote
In this report, we explain how the nonlinear dynamics of the SWB disruption of energy will rapidly drive the capacity factor of all conventional coal, gas, nuclear, and hydro power plants toward zero throughout the 2020s. The overwhelming majority of these conventional facilities will become financially unviable and their assets stranded over the next decade or so.

Costs for wind and solar plus batteries are beating fossil fuels currently and continuing to decrease.  Utilities are going to be shutting down their coal and gas power plants as soon as they can replace the power with wind and solar plus batteries.  This is why governments don't have to anger coal miners or gas workers by making grand announcements about curtailing these fossil fuel developments.  Fossil fuels will be joining the horse and buggy sooner than experts are predicting.

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1855 on: March 12, 2021, 09:08:19 PM »
rethinkx interpretation of capacity factors is also flawed see my post on this in oil and gas.
Remember LCOE is based on building new assets not existing assets. No one in the us is building new coal so not really that relevant. LACE is based on replacing existing assets.
In the US in republican strongholds very little renewables are on the grid. While economics are applying pressure in these areas every effort is made to discourage utilities from going green.

Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1856 on: March 13, 2021, 01:29:29 AM »
China is building more new coal than the rest of the world is currently retiring, so this is relevant.

Also, any new fossil fuel asset being built today will be a stranded asset by the end of the decade (there is more than enough existing infrastructure to meet the remaining demand during the energy transition). RethinkX is making the point that someone will be paying for those stranded assets.  Unless people vote in politicians who will represent their interests, it will be the taxpayers and rate payers who end up paying.

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1857 on: March 13, 2021, 09:08:13 PM »
i agree generaly that coal is bad my criticism is the argument is seriosly flawed. They claim hydro is on its way out for the same reason. this argument makes no sense. i do not expect much growth in hydro but i do not expect much decline either. Hydro is not going to become a stranded asset in the next decade or at any time in the future.  They apply an optomistic decline in coal to all energy sources they dont like. In the us nuclear is probably on a slow decline as power plants retire and are not replaced. Their is no evidence that nuclear power plants will have a lower capacity factor in the future.
rethinkx is using a flawed argument. I do believe that fossil fuel investments will quickly become stranded assets. New coal doese not make economic sense today that is why most new coal plans have been canceled. In China coal is built for political reasons not economic ones and even their growth is slowing.
Rising gas prices in the US and easing covid restrictions have increased coals  capacity factor in the last few months. In general increasing renewables will drive those coal capacity factors back down.

gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1858 on: March 15, 2021, 06:52:43 PM »
IEA Update for Dec 20- https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-electricity-statistics

SIZE MATTERS.

In December China produced just over 500,000 GWH of electricity from coal - a record.

To put that in perspective, all OECD countries produced just under 200,000 GWH of electricity from coal.

If China doesn't come to the table for a major switch to renewables PDQ then.....

click images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1859 on: March 16, 2021, 03:38:25 AM »
Agreed if China does not reduce its coal use than there is nothing practically the rest of the world can do to compensate for it.

kassy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1860 on: March 16, 2021, 01:53:26 PM »
Compensating the other way:

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.

U.S. power plants are going to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020, and then another 3% in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said last week. China and India, which together account for almost two-thirds of demand, have no plans to cut back in the near term.

...

The U.S. increase stems from higher natural gas prices and the recovery from the pandemic. For China and India, it’s a reflection of rising electricity demand that’s keeping coal as the dominant source of power generation even as they add vast amounts of solar and wind capacity.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-world-s-three-biggest-coal-users-get-ready-to-burn-even-more-1.1577525
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gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1861 on: March 16, 2021, 04:35:16 PM »
Compensating the other way:

(Bloomberg) -- The world’s three biggest consumers of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, are getting ready to boost usage so much that it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened.
When the change will happen and coal killed is always next year. Meanwhile.....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1862 on: March 16, 2021, 11:13:58 PM »
This is not good news obviously I was hoping for permanent cuts. However consider this. US Coal usage was 964 TWH in 2019. It dropped 25% to 773 TWH in 2020. The EIA estimates 897 TWH in 2021 and 924 TWH in 2022. All told that is a little more than 4% drop in coal from 2019 to 2022 if EIA estimates are accurate. EIA estimates show coal declining very little by 2040 so I don't believe their estimate.  The other story is natural gas use declined at the same time. I suspect a small net decrease in fossil fuels because of the large Dec 2020 installation of renewable energy assets. Data for Jan 2021 released on Mar 24th. Bloomberg the billionaire behind a major anticoal campaign and this story continues to pressure coal companies to close which is probably the reason for the tone of this story. It appears as though 2020's 24.7 GW of renewable energy made a dent in fossil fuel generation and this year installation is expected to increase from last year. Installation in 2020 of renewable energy was heavily weighted to the end of the year especially in December.

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1863 on: March 16, 2021, 11:17:58 PM »
the march data points are estimates based on generation so far this month.

Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1864 on: March 17, 2021, 07:02:25 PM »
While the EIA and other fossil fuel supporters continue to deny the death throes of coal, utilities continue to retire coal-fired power plants well before the end of their useful lives.  Because it saves them billions of dollars.

https://www.kpcnews.com/albionnewera/article_b92a0882-b50e-5714-b682-a107f5865e7d.html

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NIPSCO to retire two coal-fired units in 2021
March 16, 2021

MERRILLVILLE — Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC, a subsidiary of NiSource Inc., announced recently plans to retire two coal-fired units representing half of its R.M. Schahfer Generating Station capacity in Wheatfield by the end of 2021.

The retirements are part of NIPSCO’s broader, long-term electric generation strategy and customer-centric plan referred to as “Your Energy, Your Future.” The strategy outlines the company’s plans to become 100 percent coal-free by 2028, while transitioning to reliable, lower-cost and more sustainable energy options.

NIPSCO projects the transition will result in an estimated $4 billion in cost savings over the long term.

gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1865 on: March 17, 2021, 08:58:11 PM »
While the EIA and other fossil fuel supporters continue to deny the death throes of coal, utilities continue to retire coal-fired power plants well before the end of their useful lives.  Because it saves them billions of dollars.
The growth is not in the economically advanced countries but in the fast growing economies of Asia.

At the end of 2020 the USA produced about 75,000 GWH of electrcity per month from coal.
India plus China produced over 450,000 GWH of electricity per month from coal.
i.e. 6 times as much.

It is the Asian century.

I hope you are right - I am sure you are right - but the timeframe for limiting AGW to +1.5 or +2 degrees is very short indeed.
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Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1866 on: March 17, 2021, 09:11:09 PM »
It will be interesting to see if China's carbon trading scheme has an impact on coal use.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpenter/2021/03/02/toothless-at-first-chinas-carbon-market-could-be-fearsome/?sh=66fa04c92af1

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Mar 2, 2021
Toothless Initially, China’s New Carbon Market Could Be Fearsome
Scott Carpenter

Quote
The country’s long-awaited national emissions trading scheme officially launched on February 1, covering some 2,225 coal and gas power plants and other facilities across the country. Although initially the scheme is designed to do little more than encourage some number crunching, including accurate gathering and reporting of emissions data, the Ministry of Environment and Ecology, its administrator, will eventually begin tightly restricting the total emissions that China’s vast fleet of power plants is allowed to release, effectively firing up the engine of the biggest environmental scheme of its kind in the world.

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The emissions trading scheme could play a starring role in this effort. China has no carbon tax, and to date its carbon reduction efforts have focused largely on the rapid buildout of renewable energy infrastructure. But even at their current dizzying pace of cost reductions, wind and solar power alone would not drive coal off the grid fast enough. By putting a price on carbon emissions, a marketplace to trade emissions allowances could accomplish the task—even if it might cause heartburn for many coal companies and investors.

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Under the scheme’s initial rollout, some 2,225 coal- or gas-fired power plants will report their carbon emissions and total power output over a period from 2019 to 2020. Based on this and a few other metrics, such as “carbon intensity”—a relatively novel feature not seen in other such schemes outside China—each facility will be allocated a certain number of credits, known as allowances, which the facility must then surrender in exchange for the right to emit certain amounts of greenhouse gases. If a facility’s emissions subsequently exceed its allowances, it must buy more allowances from an exchange, set to be hosted in Shanghai. If a facility finds itself with more allowances than it needs to cover its own emissions, it can sell them on the exchange.

Eventually, the scheme will expand to cover not just the power sector but other sectors as well, including petrochemicals, building materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, paper and domestic aviation. (Other sectors, such as transport, agriculture and construction, are still excluded.

Quote
For all the unknowns about the scheme, though, one thing is clear, most analysts emphasize: China’s seriousness about achieving its 2060 net-zero carbon emissions target. And while the precise path to get there yet hasn’t been laid down, the policy architecture is gradually being lowered into place.

kassy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1867 on: March 20, 2021, 06:16:34 PM »
Methane Spewing Mines Are as Bad For The Climate as Their Coal

New coal mines are leaking methane gases that are in some cases just as destructive to the environment as the pollution released from burning the coal itself, according to a new study.

...

Methane emissions from coal have received much less attention from researchers and governments than methane emissions from oil and gas,” researchers said in the report. “The gap in attention has resulted in a deficit in implementation of measures to mitigate what by all estimates is one of the most significant sources of greenhouse gases.”
...

Coal mining accounts for about 9% of human-related methane emissions, according to the Global Methane Initiative.

Methane on averages increases total greenhouse gas emissions at major operating mines by about 20% when measured on a 20-year horizon, Global Energy Monitor found, with that level rising up to 50% in the gassiest mines.

Global Energy Monitor examined potential methane releases at 432 proposed new or expanded coal mines, and found that at the gassiest of them the leaks could account for half of their total greenhouse gas impact. If all were built, about 13.5 million tons of methane would be released annually, doing the damage of an equivalent of more than 1 billion tons of CO2.

By far the largest potential source is China, where 140 new mines are under development. But the biggest single project is Valiant Resources’ Hutton development in Australia, which would produce the annual equivalent of 60 million tons of CO2 if built out to full ambitions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-19/coal-mines-seen-posing-additional-climate-threat-with-gas-leaks
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gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1868 on: March 22, 2021, 03:34:58 PM »
One more coal plant bites the dust - next year

https://news.sky.com/story/climate-coal-fired-power-nears-uk-extinction-as-edf-to-shut-west-burton-a-12253548

Climate: Coal-fired power nears UK extinction as EDF to shut West Burton A plant

West Burton A began generating electricity in the year England last won a football World Cup and will be decommissioned next year.

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EDF Energy has announced plans to shut down its last remaining coal-fired power station in the UK - as it eyes a larger contribution from nuclear to meet the country's electricity needs.

The French company said the West Burton A plant, near Retford in Nottinghamshire, would be decommissioned from September 2022 - two years ahead of a government climate-based ambition for an end to coal-based power generation.

EDF said the site, which houses four 500-megawatt capacity coal units, would stay open for the next 18 months only to meet its agreed commitments to the grid.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1869 on: March 23, 2021, 12:59:27 PM »
And as one coal plant bites the dust...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/japan-eyes-overseas-coal-units-in-bangladesh-ignores-climate-pressure-101616479072142.html
Japan eyes overseas coal units in Bangladesh, ignores climate pressure

The Japan International Cooperation Agency said in an email it’s conducting an environmental and social impact assessment for an expansion to the Matarbari power plant.
Quote
One of the last countries in the world to support coal-fired generation overseas is considering financing new capacity in Bangladesh.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency said in an email it’s conducting an environmental and social impact assessment for an expansion to the Matarbari power plant. JICA already agreed to finance the first 1.2 gigawatt phase of the project that is scheduled for completion in 2024, but hasn’t decided if it will finance the expansion, which would double the facility’s capacity.

“In spite of difficulties, my government decided to do a survey and research on unit 3 and 4,” Naoki Ito, the Japanese ambassador to Bangladesh, said Thursday during a webinar hosted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Bangladesh, referring to the expansion. Changing climate policies have led the country to scrap dozens of plans for new coal plants, he said.


Japan agreed in August to support expanding the Matarbari plant with three additional units planned in a second phase of construction, according to a Japanese government official, who asked not to be identified citing policy
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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sidd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1870 on: March 24, 2021, 07:36:27 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1871 on: March 25, 2021, 11:02:29 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

Latest monthly data from the EIA of the USA

US Coal Production and Consumption is less than 50% of what it was 10 years ago.
Despite a large December uptick in coal consumed for electrcicity, coal production in February 21 was 15% less than 12 months ago.
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Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1872 on: March 29, 2021, 07:55:42 PM »
China now generates more than half of the world's coal-fired power.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-china-coal-idUSKBN2BK0PZ

Quote
March 28, 2021
China generated over half world's coal-fired power in 2020: study

By Reuters Staff

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China generated 53% of the world’s total coal-fired power in 2020, nine percentage points more that five years earlier, despite climate pledges and the building of hundreds of renewable energy plants, a global data study showed on Monday.

Although China added a record 71.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind power and 48.2 GW of solar last year, it was the only G20 nation to see a significant jump in coal-fired generation, said Ember, the London-based energy and climate research group.

China’s coal-fired generation rose by 1.7% or 77 terawatt-hours, enough to bring its share of global coal power to 53%, up from 44% in 2015, the report showed.

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New coal-fired power installations reached 38.4 GW in 2020, more than three times the amount built by the rest of the world, according to a February research report.

Sciguy

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1873 on: April 08, 2021, 12:17:58 AM »
Coal's last lifeline is now China.  End Coal's summary of 2020 for the coal industry makes that abundantly clear.

https://endcoal.org/2021/04/new-report-boom-and-bust-2021-tracking-the-global-coal-plant-pipeline/

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New Report – Boom and Bust 2021: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline
Posted April 5, 2021 by Christine Shearer

NEW REPORT: Record Coal Plant Retirements In The U.S. and EU Offset By China Coal Plant Boom In 2020

 U.S. Coal Retirements Under Trump Exceed Obama

San Francisco, CA–A steep increase in coal plant development in China offset a retreat from coal in the rest of the world in 2020, resulting in the first increase in global coal capacity development since 2015, according to a new report led by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). In total, China was home to 85% of the 87.4 gigawatts (GW) of proposed new coal plants in 2020.

Quote
China commissioned 38.4 GW of new coal plants in 2020, comprising 76% of the global total (50.3 GW). Outside China, 11.9 GW was commissioned and, taking into account closures, the global coal fleet outside China declined by 17.2 GW in 2020 – the third year in a row that coal power capacity outside China shrank.

Outside China, the coal plant development pipeline is collapsing in Asia, as Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia have announced plans to cut up to 62.0 GW of planned coal power. GEM estimates the policies will leave 25.2 GW of coal power capacity remaining in pre-construction planning in the four countries—an 80% decline from the 125.5 GW planned there just five years ago, in 2015.

Quote
New construction starts fell 5% from 28.3 GW in 2019 to 27.0 GW in 2020. However, outside of China, new construction starts fell by 74%, from 21.1 GW in 2019 to 5.5 GW in 2020.

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Re: Coal
« Reply #1874 on: April 08, 2021, 07:46:51 AM »
US drilling has been increasing in the last few months as noted by the doubling of active rigs since 2020 lows. If this drilling activity continues natural gas prices may fall back down to early 2020 levels. If natural gas prices remain near $2.50 coal may stabilize around 2020 consumption levels but if it returns closer to the $2 level I expect coal to fall even faster. In January and February coal consumption was higher in 2021 than 2020.Given coal capacity factor is near 45% around December of 2020 I expect coal closures to continue this year unless natural gas climbs above $2.70.