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vox_mundi

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War, War, War
« on: April 11, 2021, 05:49:51 PM »
War, War, War

It's that Season again; and those who have squandered humanity's future on the 'Great Game' are dusting off their toys and setting up their pieces on the playing field.

Other threads cover some of the precursors to wars, like inequality, overpopulation, and economic or political rivalry, maybe this should cover, what Carl von Clausewitz had said - "diplomacy by other means." That and mans inhumanity to fellow man.

War is not inevitable, but I wouldn't sell it short

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Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis



Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow.

It's not entirely clear when the Russian buildup began, but video footage and other imagery reportedly showing armored vehicles and other military equipment on trains heading toward southwestern Russian has been appearing on social media since at least March 27, 2021. There have also been sightings of large ground convoys and groups of aircraft.



https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1376965845172289536

https://mobile.twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1377017401401835521

This includes at least one clip of a trainload of 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, BMP-3 infantry fight vehicles, and other military vehicles, crossing a bridge that now links Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, and footage of what appears to be the same train in the Crimean city of Kerch. Russian forces seized this region from Ukraine in 2014 and the Kremlin subsequently annexed it.

... Though the new Russian military buildup is clearly at least a message meant for Ukrainian authorities, what the Kremlin's exact plan is remains unclear. The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the multinational Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reportedly failed to agree on the terms of an extension of an existing ceasefire agreement in Donbass beyond April 1.

... Ukraine is not a NATO member or otherwise a formal American ally, though they are an important regional security partner, and it's unclear how willing or able the U.S. government would be to prevent any new major incursion by Russia into Ukraine.

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Turkey Confirms 2 U.S. Destroyers Are Headed For The Black Sea Amid Russia-Ukraine Crisis
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40118/turkey-confirms-u-s-destroyers-are-headed-for-the-black-sea-amid-russia-ukraine-crisis

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Russian Gunboats Head To The Black Sea To Join Military Buildup Near Ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40103/russian-gunboats-head-to-the-black-sea-to-join-troop-buildup-near-ukraine

The Russian Navy is sending 10 vessels, a mixture of landing craft and small gunboats, from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. The deployment is ostensibly part of a larger series of readiness drills, but comes amid a continuing and worrisome Russian military buildup near the country's borders with Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, has also said there has been a spike in GPS jamming in the region, which has impacted its ability to monitor the situation as part of an existing agreement between Russia and Ukraine. All of this only further fuels concerns that a significant escalation in the conflict between these two countries may be imminent. ...

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Kiev estimates there are now 85,000 Russian troops between 6 and 25 miles from its border and in Crimea.

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U.S. And Chinese Carrier Groups Mass In The South China Sea
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40131/u-s-and-chinese-carrier-groups-mass-in-the-south-china-sea

The northern reaches of the South China Sea have become very busy as of late with two U.S. carrier groups and one Chinese carrier group in the region.

Tensions between China and its regional neighbors in the South China and Philippine Seas increased markedly this week. Naval exercises by both the United States and China have massed an unusual number of warships in the South China Sea at a time of renewed diplomatic friction as concerns over China’s territorial ambitions grow.

The uptick began late last week. The War Zone reported that China’s Liaoning Carrier Strike Group (CSG) maneuvered through the strategic Miyako Strait on Sunday, just southwest of Okinawa. Since then, a separate point of tension between China and the Philippines over a 200 ship mass of fishing vessels identified as part of China’s People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) led to a series of heated diplomatic exchanges between Manila and Beijing.

Open-source intelligence analysts tracked the movements of the Liaoning carrier strike group this week as it appeared to traverse the Luzon strait, the body of water that, along with the Bohai Channel, separates the Philippines and Taiwan. This crucially strategic area is also the primary boundary between the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea and connects the greater Pacific to the northern reaches of the South China Sea.

By April 10th, analysts flagged one Type 055 Renhai class missile destroyer and one Type 052D Luyang class destroyer splitting from the group and heading north towards the Taiwan strait:

Imagery derived from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellite identified an unusually large number of military vessels in the South China Sea on Saturday:

Yesterday the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) conducted a coordinated exercise in the South China Sea. The TRCSG consists of the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11, the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), Destroyer Squadron 23, and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Russell (DDG 59). The USS Makin Island's group also consisted of amphibious assault ships the USS Somerset and USS San Diego.

... The Taiwan area has also recently seen an increase in drone incursions. On Wednesday, Taiwanese official Ocean Affairs Council Chair Lee Chung-wei addressed the drone issue, describing them as circling the island. He declared a willingness to shoot them down, stating “if we need to open fire, we will open fire.” Additionally, China has recently invested heavily in coastal bases, such as a massive new helicopter base directly across the strait of Taiwan that could prove essential to a major offensive against the island.

Meanwhile, the week saw a near-constant stream of Chinese overflights of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, there have been 46 overflights across the southwestern portion of the Taiwan Strait. These flights have included as many as fifteen People’s Liberation Army aircraft at one time, including 8 J-10 and 4 J-16 fighter aircraft in one incident.

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meanwhile ...



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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_War_War



https://www.countryjoe.com/war.htm

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2021, 07:30:15 AM »
There are some good news as well :
https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/john-horgan-on-the-end-of-war

It's a very good book about war and how it could end. I haven't finished reading it, but it really makes you wonder why we still have wars.


gerontocrat

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2021, 10:08:19 AM »
The NYT and Bloomberg have been really quiet about Ukraine, Taiwan et al. Maybe the US is mainly concerned with its economic interests?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true
China v Russia v America: is 2021 the year Orwell’s 1984 comes true?

With Putin and Xi moving into an ever closer alliance, Joe Biden’s untested US administration may be pushed to the brink


A Ukrainian serviceman on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists, near Zolote, Ukraine. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Quote
It may just be coincidence that Russia was piling military pressure on Ukraine last week at the same time as China noisily rattled sabres around Taiwan. Spring, to mangle Tennyson, is when a young man’s fancy turns to war – and that twisted maxim may even apply to ageing thugs such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Russia and China are moving into ever closer alliance. While there is no evidence of direct collusion over Ukraine and Taiwan, presidents Putin and Xi are doubtless fully aware of each other’s actions, which have an identical, mutually reinforcing effect: putting the wind up Joe Biden’s untested US administration.

What’s now unfolding could be portrayed as the ultimate fulfilment of George Orwell’s nightmarish vision, in his dystopian novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, of a world divided geographically, politically and militarily into three rival super-states: Oceania (North America plus Britain), Eurasia (Russia and Europe), and Eastasia (China).

Publication of Orwell’s book in 1949 coincided with the formation of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and the emergence of Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union as a nuclear-armed power. It also saw the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China by Mao Zedong. Yet these were early days.

Orwell’s prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. China needed time to develop. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. The US, declaring a unipolar moment, claimed victory. Yet today, by some measures, Orwell’s tripartite world is finally coming into being. 2021 is the new 1984.
..............................................
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2021, 02:41:14 PM »
For the people refusing wars, the Albert Einstein Institution https://www.aeinstein.org has a lot of information available.

Here is an interesting page for more info about non violent action/fight

https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/correcting-common-misconceptions-about-nonviolent-action/

In the book "The End of War", John Horgan recommends to minimize the risk of terrorism to explain to the terrorists how a non violent fight works and to show them how much more efficient it is. He refers to the Albert Einstein institution for the documentation that could be use for that purpose.

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2021, 08:53:42 PM »
EU Estimates 150,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine’s Borders
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-europe-russia-emmanuel-macron-moscow-99c823234a9aab2db67ddfabba98177a

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union’s foreign policy chief has estimated that more than 150,000 Russian troops have already amassed for the biggest military buildup ever near Ukraine’s borders and that it will only take “a spark” to set off a confrontation.

... More dangerous at this time, Borrell said, was the massing of Russian troops, including military field hospitals, and “all kinds of warfare.” The risk of further escalation — it’s evident,” he told reporters after the meeting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1384136829843107846
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2021, 01:54:14 AM »
Russia’s buildup near Ukraine is huge, satellite photos reveal. The Pentagon on Monday called it the largest since the 2014 invasion. And it’s bigger than has been previously known publicly, according to commercial imagery posted on the WSJ, which “show Su-30 fighters lined up on a runway at an air base in Crimea. The aircraft, which are shown in a satellite photo from April 16, hadn’t been there in late March.” They join “the stationing of Su-34, Su-30, Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft elsewhere in the region”

How big? “According to one U.S. military official, the Russian force currently includes 48 battalion tactical groups, which consist of several hundred soldiers and officers each.”

“Other Russian military units on the Crimean peninsula include airborne troops, motorized rifle and armored units, attack helicopters, smoke generators, reconnaissance drones, jamming equipment and a military hospital, the photos indicate.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/satellite-images-show-russias-expanding-ukraine-buildup-11618917238

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/world/europe/-ukraine-russia-putin-invasion.html

Putin’s purpose? Said press secretary John Kirby in a press briefing, “We certainly heard the Russians proclaim that this is all about training. It's not completely clear to us that's exactly the purpose. So we are — we remain seriously concerned about this build up, and we call on Russia to be more transparent about their intentions.”

Meanwhile, Russia has announced its intentions to block maritime traffic in parts of the Black Sea.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-usa/us-concerned-over-russia-blocking-access-to-parts-of-black-sea-idUSKBN2C7014
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

johnm33

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2021, 10:05:56 AM »
Putin will be making a speech at noon Moscow time today perhaps he'll make it clear whether Russian troops will remain in Russian territory or like Nato send some into Ukraine. With the recent arrest, in Moscow, of the plotters to murder the leaders of Belorus and their families as part of a 'colour' regime change I imagine Russia has carte blanche to operate in and command the resources of Belorus in any conflict that may ensue. At worst the Russians may temporarily occupy Ukraine and allow the different oblasts to choose their own future, independent, part of Russia or joined to Poland/Romania/Bulgaria according to local plebicites.
Should Nato get involved the Russians have stated several times that any attack on Russia will be met with a response aimed at the decision making centers in the west, including continental N. America.
Given the repeated and recent advocacy of pre-emptive strikes against Russia, by various U.S. policy 'think tanks' it seems they're a little sensitive to the possibility of deployment of Nuclear weapons on their borders. They've also made it clear that since the missile sites in Romania and Poland are capable of launching both conventional and nuclear weapons and their radars can't distinguish between them that they have to assume any launch, aimed at Russia, is nuclear and will be reciprocated in a more general and wider response again including continental N. America.

blu_ice

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2021, 11:48:47 AM »
Putin will be making a speech at noon Moscow time today perhaps he'll make it clear whether Russian troops will remain in Russian territory or like Nato send some into Ukraine.
Just FYI, Russian troops have occupied Ukrainian territory since they invaded the country in 2014.

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2021, 10:24:57 PM »
Don't throw away that heavy coat just yet, and you might want to stock up on some sunblock 2 million ... winter is coming ...

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Pentagon Warns Of An “Increased Potential” For Nuclear Conflict In Newly Disclosed Manual
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41421/pentagon-warns-of-an-increased-potential-for-nuclear-conflict-in-newly-disclosed-manual

A U.S. military manual that only recently became public says that the world now faces a higher probability of conflicts involving nuclear weapons. The document, prepared by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, points to multiple nuclear weapons systems and policies being pursued by adversaries and potential adversaries as signs that the world is moving away from de-escalation and is instead moving closer to the reality of a nuclear exchange. While the document avoids placing any weight on United States policy in helping to increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict, it does note that the "flexible" nuclear weapons the US has pursued could be used to defend America and its interests in the event of a regional conflict involving nuclear arms.

A copy of the manual, titled “Joint ­Publication 3-72, Joint Nuclear Operations,” was obtained by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) last week through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and posted online on July 6.

https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2021/07/increased-potential/



https://fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3_72_2020.pdf

In this manual's executive summary, the authors say that, despite United States-led de-escalation and non-proliferation efforts, “since 2010 no potential adversary has reduced either the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy or the number of nuclear weapons it fields.” Instead, the publication asserts, these potential adversaries have “moved decidedly in the opposite direction.” Ultimately, the document claims there is an “increased potential for regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed adversaries in several parts of the world and the potential for adversary nuclear escalation in crisis or conflict” due to these trends.

The document notes that “While the United States has continued to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons, others, including Russia and China, have moved in the opposite direction.” The publication claims that these nations have developed new types of nuclear weapons, placed increased strategic importance on their nuclear weapons, and have all “engaged in increasingly aggressive behavior.”

...In addition to modernizing " legacy" Soviet nuclear systems, Russia is developing and employing new nuclear warheads and launchers. It is also developing three new intercontinental-range nuclear weapon systems; a hypersonic glide vehicle; a nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered ground-launched cruise missile; and a nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered, undersea autonomous torpedo. [...]

China has developed a new road-mobile, strategic, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM); a new multi-warhead version of its DF-5 silo-based ICBM; and its most advanced ballistic missile submarine armed with new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It has also announced development of a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, giving China a nuclear triad. [...]

... The fact that the US is pursuing "flexible," low-yield, tactical warheads capable of reaching targets more quickly could be taken as a sign that the US may be more quick to use its nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict, a development that should be considered in any discussion of nations raising the likelihood of nuclear exchange.


The manual notes that any use of nuclear weapons could affect the entire planet, stating that "the use of nuclear weapons has specific, tangible implications that go well beyond the actual effects of the detonation," creating "harmful effects that conventional weapons do not have." Radioactive fallout, widespread electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage, and "incidental harm to civilians" are all cited as potential global consequences that commanders have to plan for when considering the use of nuclear weapons. "The potential consequences of using nuclear weapons will greatly influence military operations and vastly increase the complexity of the operational environment," the manual claims.

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Game of Thrones – Season 3 Episode 6
« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 01:29:39 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2021, 01:18:13 AM »
Biden Warns Cyber Attacks Could Lead to a “Real Shooting War”
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/biden-warns-cyber-attacks-could-lead-to-a-real-shooting-war/
https://breakingdefense.com/2021/07/biden-issues-national-security-memorandum-on-critical-infrastructure/

President Joe Biden has warned that cyberattacks could escalate into a full-blown war as tensions with Russia and China mounted over a series of hacking incidents targeting US government agencies, companies, and infrastructure.

Biden said on Tuesday that cyber threats including ransomware attacks “increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption in the real world.”

... "I think it's more than likely we're going to end up, if we end up in a war - a real shooting war with a major power - it's going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence, and it's increasing exponentially," president Biden said Tuesday

A number of recent hacks revealed the extent of US cyber vulnerability, ranging from extensive espionage breaches that have struck at the heart of government to ransomware attacks that have brought operations at an important oil pipeline and meat packing plants to a halt.

The Biden administration has accused the governments of Russia and China, or hackers based inside the two countries, of some of the attacks. US officials have warned that the administration would respond with a “mix of tools seen and unseen” actions, but cyber breaches have continued.

... “Mr. Putin... has a real problem. He is sitting on top of an economy that has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else. Nothing else,” Biden said. “He knows he’s in real trouble, which makes him even more dangerous.”

... Biden stressed that cyberattacks were just one aspect of the growing threats facing the US, saying that there would be more developments in the next 10 years than in the past 50, placing a tremendous burden on the intelligence community.

“It’s really going to get tougher,”
he said.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2021, 07:36:17 AM »
And Pakistan and Iran all had a population that exploded the last 50 years. So the world will probably soon have an islamic state army with nuclear weapons.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/28/war-all-around-the-city-residents-fear-of-taliban-advance

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2021, 04:51:20 PM »
... There's plenty good money to be made
By supplying the Army with the tools of its trade, ...

- Country Joe McDonald


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Big Tech Made Billions During 'War on Terror': Report
https://techxplore.com/news/2021-09-big-tech-billions-war-terror.html

Tech giants made billions through contracts with the US military and other government agencies during the so-called "war on terror", according to a report released ahead of the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

The "Big Tech Sells War" report, published Thursday by three US campaign groups, documented an explosion of government contracts with Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter since 2004.

The Department of Defense alone has spent $43.8 billion on Big Tech contracts since 2004, said the report, a collaboration between the Action Center on Race and the Economy and social justice groups LittleSis and MPower Change.

Four of the five top-spending agencies on Big Tech contracts were "central to foreign policy or were established as a direct result of the Global War on Terror", it said.

"Amazon and Microsoft in particular pulled ahead in recent years, with Amazon signing nearly five times and Microsoft signing eight times as many federal contracts and subcontracts in 2019 compared to 2015," the report said.

Report: https://bigtechsellswar.com/

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... And you know that peace can only be won
When we've blown 'em all to kingdom come. ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Freegrass

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2021, 03:21:17 AM »
7 dead children in US drone strike that took out the wrong person. America's disgusting farewell salvo to Afghanistan.

While the U.S. military has so far acknowledged only three civilian casualties, Mr. Ahmadi’s relatives said that 10 members of their family, including seven children, were killed in the strike: Mr. Ahmadi and three of his children, Zamir, 20, Faisal, 16, and Farzad, 10; Mr. Ahmadi’s cousin Naser, 30; three of Romal’s children, Arwin, 7, Benyamin, 6, and Hayat, 2; and two 3-year-old girls, Malika and Somaya.

Neighbors and an Afghan health official confirmed that bodies of children were removed from the site. They said the blast had shredded most of the victims; fragments of human remains were seen inside and around the compound the next day by a reporter, including blood and flesh splattered on interior walls and ceilings. Mr. Ahmadi’s relatives provided photographs of several badly burned bodies belonging to children.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/world/asia/us-air-strike-drone-kabul-afghanistan-isis.html
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2021, 12:03:04 AM »
Climate Change From a Nuclear War's Smoke Could Threaten Global Food Supplies, Human Health
https://phys.org/news/2021-09-climate-nuclear-war-threaten-global.html



Nuclear war would cause many immediate fatalities, but smoke from the resulting fires would also cause climate change lasting up to 15 years that would threaten worldwide food production and human health, according to a study by researchers at Rutgers University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and other institutions.

The study appears in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

Scientists have long understood that nuclear weapons used on cities and industrial areas could initiate large-scale fires whose massive amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere could cause global climate change, leading to the term "nuclear winter."

But in the new study, researchers for the first time used a modern climate model, including aerosols and nitric oxide emissions, to simulate the effects on ozone chemistry and surface ultraviolet light caused by absorption of sunlight by smoke from regional and global nuclear wars.

This could lead to a loss of most of our protective ozone layer, taking a decade to recover, resulting in several years of extremely high ultraviolet light at Earth's surface and further endangering human health and food supplies.

... The study's results showed that for a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan that would generate five megatons of soot; the enhanced ultraviolet light would begin within a year. For a global war between the United States and Russia generating 150 megatons, it would only begin after about eight years. For intermediate amounts of smoke, the effects would fall between these extreme cases.

For a global nuclear war, heating in the stratosphere and other factors would cause a 15 year-long reduction in the ozone column, with a peak loss of 75% globally and 65% in the tropics. This is larger than predictions from the 1980s, which assumed large injections of nitrogen oxides but did not include the effects of smoke.

For a regional nuclear war, the global column ozone would be reduced by 25% with recovery taking 12 years. This is similar to previous simulations but with a faster recovery time due to a shorter lifetime for soot in the new simulations.

"The bottom line is that nuclear war would be even worse than we thought, and must be avoided," Robock said.

Charles G. Bardeen et al, Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021JD035079



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https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/13/7071

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y

https://www.cpr.org/2020/01/09/a-colorado-professor-is-warning-the-world-of-nuclear-winter-again/

“It’s scary,” he said. “It could potentially end global civilization as we know it.”

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/222/4630/1283

... The 1983 TTAPS study concluded: "...the possibility of the extinction of Homo Sapiens cannot be excluded."

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/modelling-armageddon-the-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-on-climate/109988/



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Top US General Feared Trump Would Launch Nuclear Attack After Election Loss, New Woodward Book Claims
https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/14/politics/woodward-book-trump-nuclear/

... The Pentagon confirmed that Gen. Milley spoke to a group of U.S. officers about how to handle a potential order to deliver a nuclear attack in the wake of the Jan. 6 chaos, as Biden's victory over Trump was certified.

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/15/1037454733/milley-defends-call-to-chinese-general-about-trump



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Generals Should Not Have to Break the Rules to Prevent Nuclear War
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/09/generals-should-not-have-break-rules-prevent-nuclear-war/185398/

Just after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Gen. Mark Milley faced an impossible choice: should he allow President Trump to retain sole authority to start nuclear war, or should he intervene to block such an order?

Convinced that Trump had suffered “serious mental decline in the aftermath of the election,” Gen. Milley decided to intervene, ordering his staff to come to him if they received a strike order from the president



... Unfortunately, under existing policy the only way to safeguard the nuclear arsenal from an unstable president is not to elect one. Once in office, the president gains the absolute authority to start a nuclear war. Within minutes, the president can unleash hundreds of atomic bombs, or just one. He does not need a second opinion. The defense secretary has no say, and Congress has no role.

... How many times do we need to see this play out before we realize that next time we might not be so lucky? ... By now, it should be clear that no one person should have the unilateral power to end civilization.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2021, 02:49:53 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2021, 02:51:22 AM »
Climate Change Will Bring Global Tension, US Intelligence Report Says
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59004088



Climate change will lead to growing international tensions, the US intelligence community has warned in a bleak assessment.

The first ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change looks at the impact of climate on national security through to 2040.

National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change Report:  https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NIE_Climate_Change_and_National_Security.pdf

The 27-page assessment is the collective view of all 18 US intelligence agencies. It is their first such look-ahead on what climate means for national security.

The report paints a picture of a world failing to co-operate, leading to dangerous competition and instability. It has been issued just ahead of President Joe Biden attending next month's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, which is seeking international agreement.

It warns countries will try to defend their economies and seek advantage in developing new technology. Some nations may also resist the desire to act, with more than 20 countries relying on fossil fuels for greater than 50% of total export revenues.

"A decline in fossil fuel revenue would further strain Middle Eastern countries that are projected to face more intense climate effects," the report says.

Soon, it warns, the impact of climate change will be felt around the globe.

The US intelligence community identifies 11 countries and two regions where energy, food, water and health security are at particular risk. They tend to be poorer and less able to adapt, increasing the risks of instability and internal conflict. Heat waves and droughts could place pressure on services like electricity supply.

Five of the 11 countries are in South and East Asia - Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan and North Korea - four countries are in Central America and the Caribbean - Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua. Colombia and Iraq are the others. Central Africa and small states in the Pacific are also at risk. 3 of them have nuclear weapons

Instability could spill out, particularly in the form of refugee flows, with a warning this could put pressure on the US southern border and create new humanitarian demands.

The Arctic is likely to be a flashpoint, as it becomes more accessible because of reducing ice. That may open new shipping routes and access to fish stocks but also create risks of miscalculation as militaries move in.

Access to water will also become a source of problems. In the Middle East and North Africa, about 60% of surface water resources cross boundaries. Pakistan and India have long-standing water issues. Meanwhile, the Mekong River basin could cause problems between China and Cambodia and Vietnam, the report warns.

Another source of risk is that a country might decide to use geo-engineering to counter climate change.

This involves using futuristic technology, for instance sending reflective particles to the upper stratosphere which mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption or using aerosols to cool oceans in a particular area.

Researchers in several countries, including Australia, China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as several EU members, are looking at these techniques but there are few rules or regulations.

... "Climate considerations cannot be separated from other security concerns, such as competition with China. That country faces compounding climate risks, from rising sea levels affecting millions of people in coastal cities, flooding in its interior that threatens energy infrastructure, and desertification and migrating fish stocks that undermine its food security. National security strategy that does not take such factors into account will get answers to key questions about China's behaviour incorrect."

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publications-2021/item/2253-national-intelligence-estimate-on-climate-change
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2021, 08:51:12 AM »
Satellite Images Show New Russian Military Buildup Near Ukraine
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337

WASHINGTON—Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a force expected to total 175,000 troops near Russia’s border with Ukraine, giving him the capability for a potential invasion of his neighbor by early 2022, Biden administration officials said Friday.

... New commercial satellite photos taken on Monday confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring.

The new images taken by Maxar Technologies and shared with POLITICO show a buildup of armored units, tanks and self-propelled artillery along with ground troops massing near the Russian town of Yelnya close to the border of Belarus. The units, which began moving in late September from other areas of Russia where they are normally based, include the elite 1st Guards Tank Army.

Meanwhile, a new analysis by Jane’s on Monday reveals that equipment from Russia’s 4th Tank Division has been moved to areas around Bryansk and Kursk close to Ukraine's northern border. The units are equipped with T-80U main battle tanks and self-propelled artillery.

Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have also been spotted in the area. The army “has been designed to conduct operations at every level of combat from counterinsurgency to mechanized warfare,” Jane's analysis reported. “It is usually the first to receive the latest equipment and is also seen as the primary formation for the testing of new equipment and tactics.”

The deployment “marks a clear deviation from the 1st Guards Tank Army’s standard training pattern,” which normally takes place around Moscow, Jane’s said.

Tensions have been increasing between Moscow and the West over the past several months, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has bristled at fresh talk of Ukraine and Georgia possibly joining NATO, and as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited both countries in October.

------------------------------------

Russia Bolsters Supply Lines, Deploys Medical Units Near Ukraine As Invasion Fears Grow: Report
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43371/russia-bolsters-supply-lines-deploys-medical-units-near-ukraine-as-invasion-fears-grow-report

Logistical and medical capabilities would be critical for Russia to sustain any future major operation in Ukraine that could last weeks or more.

------------------------------------

Belarus Announces Military Drills With Russia Near Ukraine Border
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-announces-military-drills-with-russia-near-ukraine-border-2021-11-29/

MOSCOW, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Belarus on Monday announced joint military drills with close ally Russia on its southern border with Ukraine and accused the NATO military alliance of building up offensive capabilities near its borders.

-------------------------------------

Belarus leader threatens to shut off natural gas to Europe

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suggested shutting off the flow of natural gas to Europe Thursday amid a threat of potential European Union sanctions imposed on the country for its handling of migrants.

"We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we shut off natural gas there?" Lukashenko said in comments first published by Belarusian news agency Belta, Reuters reported.

"Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians and other headless people think before speaking," the leader added.

The pipeline Lukashenko was referring to, the Yamal gas pipeline, carries Russian natural gas through Belarus to Poland and Germany, according to Reuters. Russia is an ally to Belarus.

------------------------------------

U.S. Warns Europe That Russia May Plan Ukraine Invasion

The US has reportedly warned its European allies Russia could attempt to invade more Ukrainian territory less than a decade after it annexed Crimea.

American officials briefed their European colleagues about a potential military assault, amid a large build-up of troops near the Russian-Ukrainian border, according to a Daily Telegraph report.

... A day later, the Kremlin claimed one of its fighter jets forced a British spy plane to change course after it flew near Crimea on Thursday.

The British Boeing RC-135 aircraft reportedly came close to the Black Sea peninsula, which the west still considers to belong to Ukraine

The plane altered its flight path after a Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jet attempted to intercept it, the Russian defence ministry said.

The incident comes as the US and its allies increase their military activity in the area in reaction to the gathering of Russian troops near the Ukraine border.

Two Russian warships were also observing two US vessels in the region, Moscow added.

Russia also flexed its own military muscles on Thursday by sending two nuclear-capable bombers over Belarus, in a show of support for its ally.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2021, 03:00:39 PM »
There are also + 100 000 Ukranian soldiers near donbass. And they are probably going to take it back. Donbass holds a very large part of the coal reserves of Ukrania. And witth coal prices sky high, and coal import coming trough rassia by train blocked. They don't have much other options as to take it back.

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interstitial

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2021, 01:12:43 AM »
moonofalabama disagrees:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/us-intelligence-has-found-easy-to-disprove-claims-of-a-russian-attack-on-ukraine.html

sidd
I am not sure how credible a site that describes itself as where bar flies get together is.

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2021, 01:17:54 AM »
I suspect the war drums are being beaten for more prosaic and venal reasons: NDAA is delayed, cant have the money flow impeded

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/584228-senate-eyes-plan-b-amid-defense-bill-standoff

sidd

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2021, 01:21:22 AM »
This particular story was broken by wapo:

"an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html

There have been many such stories, ever since NDAA ean into choppy water a month or so ago.

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NevB

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #21 on: December 06, 2021, 06:30:30 AM »
This is all sorts of wrong, from the first paragraph creating a false equivalence with the Bush regime's illegal invasion of Iraq.

Then somehow it is ok for Russia to use their military to support a rebellion in Ukraine because they are expected to lose to the government ?
Aren't you always criticizing the US for exactly this type of behaviour ?

"The Ukrainian army attack will thus provoke Russia into intervening. That counter-intervention will then get reported as the 'long expected Russian attack on Ukraine'"

moonofalabama disagrees:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/12/us-intelligence-has-found-easy-to-disprove-claims-of-a-russian-attack-on-ukraine.html

sidd

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2021, 06:51:12 AM »
Excellent. In fact, let us welcome Russian troops and missiles in Cuba, or Chinese forces in Venezuela ... that will certainly increase the volume of the war drums and increase military spending ... in all those countries. Invest in Raytheon !

Wait, hasn't this already been done ...? Missiles in cuba and turkey ?  Of course, that president who negotiated that standown came to an unfortunate end.

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NevB

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2021, 03:29:56 PM »

Seems like when Kennedy was murdered the US promise to create a free world for all was murdered as well. Maybe also three shots from an extremist, two caught on a film that was assumed to have caught all three became the genesis of today's conspiracy theories.

The US war industry is certainly responsible for a good proportion of war deaths in the last half of last century and the beginning of this one. This is a foul part of Western democracy that must be dealt with before democracy can fulfil its promise. I can't see that being possible until conservative ideology is full rejected. That's my very condensed view of the US.

The alternates though are far less desirable, Putin's Russia is the Italian Mafia on steroids with nukes. Chinese communism is comparable to an Orwellian 1984 nightmare.

I've seen a lot of your criticisms some I agree with, I don't recall seeing solutions.
How do you think this mess can be improved what's a realistic path forward ?

PS I thought and still do that Bernie Sanders and especially Jeremy Corbyn would lead in the right direction but they were both had no chance in this the present system. How do we get someone elected ?

I included Jeremy Corbyn in this thought bubble as I believe his example alone if he did get elected would be powerful enough to show what was possible. That's one reason he was such a big danger.

Excellent. In fact, let us welcome Russian troops and missiles in Cuba, or Chinese forces in Venezuela ... that will certainly increase the volume of the war drums and increase military spending ... in all those countries. Invest in Raytheon !

Wait, hasn't this already been done ...? Missiles in cuba and turkey ?  Of course, that president who negotiated that standown came to an unfortunate end.

sidd

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2021, 10:57:20 PM »
Re: solutions

I really have no realistic suggestions. Perhaps repeal Citizen's United by expanding the supremes ad FDR once threatened ? That will require supermajorities. Perhaps a Constitutional Convention, as Vidal and others have advocated ?

Re: less desirable alternates

I think the citizens of China and Russia have different views. Neither can replace the USA and neither wants to. Why would they aspire to become the tottering leaders of a world in flames, ruin their economies by setting up their own currencies for seignorage ? The europeans and the japanese seem equally reluctant.

But i question the need to replace the hegemon at all. Break it, yes. replace it, no. Regional trade and regional treaties rather than a single Empire doesnt sound too bad.

Of course, it seems these days that the hegemon will break on it's own.

sidd

Freegrass

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #25 on: December 07, 2021, 03:18:10 AM »
The US war industry is certainly responsible for a good proportion of war deaths in the last half of last century and the beginning of this one.
Only more than 12 million...

Quote
America has been in 19 wars since World War II, but we will list the death toll from three of the bloodiest conflicts: The Korean War, The Vietnam War and wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The total death toll of people killed by American troops in all these wars put together is over 12 million.

Each of these three conflicts have something in common: they were wars fought in the name of making the world "safe for democracy."
http://www.worldfuturefund.org/Reports/Imperialism/usmurder.html
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2021, 02:22:29 AM »
I remarked earlier that war drums had been beating louder ever since the defense spending bill ran into difficulty. I see today that it passed, and surprise, surprise, i see that we are now told that perhaps the threats are not so urgent:


"CIA Director William Burns on Monday said US intelligence agencies haven’t concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin has plans to invade Ukraine, contradicting recent media reports that said otherwise."

“We don’t know that Putin has made up his mind to use force,” 

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/12/07/cia-director-says-us-intelligence-hasnt-concluded-russia-will-invade-ukraine/

"On Monday, CIA Director William Burns said the US does not have evidence that Iran has decided to weaponize its nuclear program."

“doesn’t see any evidence that Iran’s Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] has made a decision to move to weaponize,”

https://news.antiwar.com/2021/12/07/cia-chief-no-evidence-iran-has-decided-to-develop-a-nuclear-weapon/

Mighty Wurlitzer indeed ...

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2021, 04:40:12 AM »
I remarked earlier that war drums had been beating louder ever since the defense spending bill ran into difficulty. I see today that it passed, and surprise, surprise, i see that we are now told that perhaps the threats are not so urgent:

<cut>

sidd

I just took a quick look and China is a major arms importer. If the U.S. wants more arms then I bet China does too: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/

It seems they are really keen on their Mutually Assured Dividend.  ::)

morganism

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2021, 05:50:45 AM »
Death, drugs and a disbanded unit: How the Guard’s Mexico border mission fell apart

    When troops weren’t on duty, most were at hotels in remote locations. Alcohol and drug abuse became so widespread that senior leaders issued breathalyzers and instituted alcohol restrictions that tightened as the misconduct incidents piled up.
    Leaders initiated more than 1,200 legal actions, including nonjudicial punishments, property loss investigations, Army Regulation 15-6 investigations and more. That’s nearly one legal action for every three soldiers. At least 16 soldiers from the mission were arrested or confined for charges including drugs, sexual assault and manslaughter. During the same time period, only three soldiers in Kuwait, a comparable deployment locale with more soldiers, were arraigned for court-martial.
    Troops at the border had more than three times as many car accidents over the past year — at least 500 incidents totaling roughly $630,000 in damages — than the 147 “illegal substance seizures” they reported assisting.
    One cavalry troop from Louisiana was temporarily disbanded due to misconduct and command climate issues — an extremely rare occurrence.
    A 1,000-soldier battalion-level task force based in McAllen, Texas, had three soldiers die during the border deployment. For comparison, only three Army Guard troops died on overseas deployments in 2021, out of tens of thousands.

“We could be saving billions of dollars if we actually funded [Customs and Border Protection] instead of using the Guard as a Band-Aid,” said an officer who served at the border last year. “We’re useless and CBP treats us like we’re useless. We cost the taxpayer millions of dollars in pay, benefits, per diem, hotels, [and] vehicle rentals.”

Gallego, a former Marine and a member of the House Armed Service Committee, agreed. He also highlighted the long-term costs of using Guard troops there, such as paying out increased G.I. Bill and Veterans Affairs disability benefits to those injured on the mission.

“If we want to secure the border, 100 customs officers is better than 100 National Guardsmen,” said Gallego, who also opposed a Guard border deployment during the Obama administration. “It feels warm and fuzzy to say that we have guys with camouflage down on the border, but it’s just politicians playing with people’s emotions. [The troops] don’t actually end up being effective, and you’re eroding our military capability for real threats.

“All you’re doing is, basically, taking [Guardsmen] away from their families [and] taking people from actual training,” Gallego added. “You’re screwing with readiness. You’re screwing with morale.”

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2021/12/08/death-drugs-and-a-disbanded-unit-how-the-guards-mexico-border-mission-fell-apart/

Alexander555

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2021, 08:44:48 PM »
And you can almost be sure that Iran is going for nuclear weapons. What other defence will they have, against big players like the US, China.......And most of Asia depends on a few countries in the middle-east. With conventional weapons, they will stay what they are today. A country crippled by sanctions. Because they don't fear them. Maybe they can hit an aircraft carrier. But they can not hit a country like the US or China. With all the rockets they have, they can maybe flatten a small Los Angels suburb. If they would manage to get there .But most americans whould not even know something is going on. Only nukes will set them free. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/9/us-israel-to-discuss-drills-for-iran-worst-case-scenario-report

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2021, 09:58:27 PM »
Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Move Closer To Ukraine As Tensions Build
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43447/russian-air-defense-missile-systems-move-closer-to-ukraine-as-tensions-build



Russian military hardware, including medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, continues to pour into areas of the country adjacent to Ukraine, as concerns grow that Moscow could be preparing some kind of new invasion of Ukrainian territory. Videos that recently emerged on social media appear to show an extensive array of Buk-M1 air defense systems and related equipment, together with tanks and artillery, at a rail marshaling yard relatively close to the border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Chief of the Defense Staff in the United Kingdom, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has warned that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine “would be on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two.”

The videos in question were posted to the Russian Telegram messaging site yesterday and have been assessed by the Conflict Intelligence Team, or CIT, an open-source information analysis group. One clip, taken from the cab of a moving train, shows elements associated with the Buk-M1 air defense system, known in the West as the SA-11 Gadfly, at Maslovka station in western Russia's Voronezh Oblast. According to CIT, the presence of 9S18M1 Kupol acquisition radar (NATO reporting name Snow Drift) indicates that a battalion-strength Buk-M1 system is present there. This video was recorded on December 6, according to the date on the train driver’s instrument panel

https://t.me/Radioskaner/2339

https://mobile.twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1466004261603524613

The second clip, also taken at Maslovka station, shows other hardware from the Buk-M1 system, including 9A310M1 transporter-erector-launcher and radar vehicles (TELARs), 9A39M1 transporter-erector-launcher and transloader vehicles, 9T229 missile transporters on the KrAZ-225 truck chassis, and 9Ya266 transporter-containers for the system’s missiles. The same footage also includes T-80U tanks and Msta-S self-propelled howitzers.

https://t.me/Radioskaner/2338

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1454495213452410886

In the first video, at least, there is evidence that the individual hull numbers on certain vehicles from the Buk-M1 system have been painted out, according to CIT analysis. In the past, these identification features have been removed from Russian vehicles as standard practice for participation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier video, which appeared on social media on October 29, had also shown elements of a Buk system, reportedly underway by rail somewhere in the Smolensk Oblast, further to the north, but also in a region bordering Ukraine:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1453853398495899657

CIT says it has received information indicating that the various military equipment now at Maslovka has arrived in the last few days by train. These have reportedly come from Naro-Fominsk in the Moscow Oblast, Ilyin in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and Krasny Bor in the Smolensk Oblast, all of which lie further northwest from the border with Ukraine.

Using this information, CIT has said that the military units involved are most likely the 4th Guards Tank Division, 288th Artillery Brigade, and 49th Air Defense Missile Brigade, all of which are part of the 1st Guards Tank Army. Notably, the analysts have previously identified other elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, including the 4th Tank Division at Maslovka. ...

----------------------------------------

... probably just taking a winter holiday, no doubt
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

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vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2021, 02:20:43 AM »
US, Israel to Discuss Drills for Iran Worst-Case Scenario: Report
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/9/us-israel-to-discuss-drills-for-iran-worst-case-scenario-report

US and Israeli defence chiefs are expected on Thursday to discuss possible military exercises that would prepare for a worst-case scenario to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities should diplomacy fail and if their nations’ leaders request it, a senior US official told Reuters news agency.

The US-Israeli preparations, which have not been previously reported, underscore Western concern about difficult nuclear talks with Iran that President Joe Biden had hoped would revive a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by his predecessor Donald Trump.

.... The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that Iran had started the process of enriching uranium to up to 20% purity with one cascade, or cluster, of 166 advanced IR-6 machines at its Fordow plant, which is dug into a mountain.

Underlining how badly eroded the deal is, that pact does not allow Iran to enrich uranium at Fordow at all, let alone with advanced centrifuges

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-diplomacy-stutters-us-israel-discuss-military-drills-iran-scenario-us-2021-12-09/

----------------------------------------

Report: Missile Strike Risks to Middle East Nuclear Reactors
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/8/report-missile-strike-risks-to-middle-east-nuclear-reactors

Deliberate attacks on nuclear reactors may seem almost unthinkable – unless the reactor is located in the Middle East, a region that has the dubious distinction of being the only place on the planet where aerial assaults on nuclear facilities are known to have happened.

As debate intensifies in the wake of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) over what role nuclear energy should play in global decarbonisation efforts, a new report published on Wednesday brings to light the radiological fallout and subsequent evacuations that could result if a state-of-the-art missile or drone successfully attacks an existing or planned commercial nuclear power plant in the Middle East.

 Report: https://npolicy.org/hot-mess-next-missile-struck-reactors-in-the-middle-east-occasional-paper-2107/

Produced by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), a Washington, DC-based research institute, the study offers a rare publically available analysis of conflict risks to nuclear facilities in the Middle East, warning that a successful strike on a commercial nuclear power plant there “could result in the evacuation of millions of people, many of whom would not be able to return to their homes for several decades”

The map below, for example, illustrates four current and planned commercial nuclear power plants and the evacuation footprints – including in surrounding countries – that could follow a successful aerial assault on a densely packed spent fuel pool, where discarded radioactive fuel rods are cooled before being moved to more permanent storage.



... “There have been no fewer than 13 air strikes since the very early 80s against a variety of [nuclear] reactors [in the Middle East], mostly by air forces and attempts with very inaccurate missiles like Scuds,” said Sokolski.

He added that aerial strike technology has come a long way since the early 1980s, when Israel and Iran bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor, or even 2007, when Israel destroyed a suspected reactor under construction in Syria.

“Missiles and drones with high accuracies of 1-10 meters, one thousand times more accurate than during the 1990s,” are available to both state and non-state actors, the report warns.

That was on display in September 2019, when a barrage of drones and cruise missiles evaded Saudi Arabia’s state-of-the-art air defences to hit Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities at Khurais and Abqaiq.

Given the increased interest in nuclear energy in the Middle East, its unique history of air strikes on nuclear facilities, and the emergence of non-state actors wielding advanced military firepower, NPEC believes that any cost-benefit analysis of commercial nuclear power plants in the region needs to include a public disclosure of the potential radiological fallout and population displacements that could result from a successful aerial strike on a facility.

... The first scenario Lisowski modelled examined what would happen if a nuclear reactor containment building is breached by an air strike, resulting in the core being released. The second scenario mapped what would happen if a spent fuel pond were hit and a fire broke out. The third scenario assessed what would happen if a spent fuel pond that is densely packed with radioactive rods were targeted and caught fire.

-------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #32 on: December 22, 2021, 02:14:04 AM »
Maharrey on Madison at the tenthamendment center: Pay for war

"In 1792, Madison argued that the cost of war should be borne by those who wage it."

"He argued that the best way to limit the number of wars would be to make the people pay the full cost immediately instead of financing them with debt and putting the onus on future generations to bear the cost. "

"In Madison’s view, war powers should be kept out of the hands of individuals. He wrote war should “be declared by the authority of the people, whose toils and treasures are to support its burdens, instead of the government which is to reap its fruits.”"

"Madison wrote in his 1792 newspaper article that “each generation should be made to bear the burden of its own wars, instead of carrying them on, at the expence of other generations.” Furthermore, Madison proposed that “war taxes” should be levied in such a way as to make it clear what those dollars are paying for."

"“were a nation to impose such restraints on itself, avarice [extreme greed for wealth or material gain] would be sure to calculate the expences of ambition.”"

https://tenthamendmentcenter.com/2021/12/12/want-war-you-pay-for-it/

sidd

morganism

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #33 on: December 24, 2021, 12:27:28 AM »
CNN Exclusive: US intel and satellite images show Saudi Arabia is now building its own ballistic missiles with help of China

""Normally, the U.S. would have pressured Saudi Arabia not to pursue these capabilities, but the first indicators that the Saudis were pursuing these capabilities indigenously emerged during the Trump era. The Trump administration, to put it lightly, was not interested in bearing down on Riyadh over these issues," according to Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy and weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Some lawmakers have been briefed over the past few months on new intelligence about transfers of ballistic missile tech between Saudi Arabia and China, multiple sources told CNN.
The Biden administration is preparing to sanction some organizations involved in the transfers, sources told CNN, though some on Capitol Hill are concerned the White House is not willing to impose significant consequences on the Saudi government for its actions.
Given the current state of negotiations with Iran, the Saudi missile program could make an already thorny problem even more difficult.
"A robust Saudi missile program would introduce new challenges to constraining other missile programs in the region. To take just one example, Iran's missiles, which are a major concern to the U.S., would be more difficult to constrain in the future without parallel constraints on a growing Saudi program," Panda told CNN. "

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/23/politics/saudi-ballistic-missiles-china/

SteveMDFP

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2022, 03:56:18 PM »
It isn't often that this thread gets a heart-warming story that is also relevant.

Magawa, ‘hero rat’ who sniffed out 71 land mines with his tiny nose, dies in retirement
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/12/magawa-african-landmine-rat-dies-cambodia/

"The explosives-sniffing African giant pouched rat Magawa — holder of a Guinness World Record for the most land mines detected by that species — died in retirement over the weekend. He was 8 years old.

Magawa, who was born in Tanzania, was trained in that East African country to detect explosives. At the age of 3, he moved to Siem Reap, in Cambodia’s northwest, where he helped clear more than 2.4 million square feet of land over the next half decade...."

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2022, 12:02:44 PM »
Ukraine Hit by ‘Massive’ Cyber-Attack On Government Websites
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers

Ukraine has been hit by a “massive” cyber-attack, with the websites of several government departments including the ministry of foreign affairs and the education ministry knocked out

... Suspected Russian hackers left a message on the foreign ministry website, according to reports. It said: “Ukrainians! … All information about you has become public. Be afraid and expect worse. It’s your past, present and future.”

The message reproduced the Ukrainian flag and map crossed out. It mentioned the Ukrainian insurgent army, or UPA, which fought against the Soviet Union during the second world war. There was also a reference to “historical land”

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1481866343104360450
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2022, 06:59:37 PM »
Under the radar: “Russia began moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from their bases in its Far East”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-more-weaponry-toward-ukraine-keeps-the-west-guessing-11642161605?mod=hp_lead_pos7

The Russian military is gathering naval infantry units alongside regular ground force formations. Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545



Top Swedish military official says he’s seeing Russian naval activity in the Baltic Sea that “deviates from the normal picture,”

https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-sweden-baltic-sea-3fe414014136ed6d26519faee497cbe3

-------------------------------------------

Chinese authorities are “stockpiling essentials” and bracing for “a prolonged period of tension with the U.S.,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-looks-to-secure-supplies-as-strains-with-u-s-and-its-allies-grow-11642075381

“In particular, authorities are pledging to secure the supplies of everything from grains to energy and raw materials, as well as the processes involved in production and distribution of industrial parts and commodities.”

An “inward pivot” is how the Journal describes Beijing’s national guidance. If it sounds familiar, it’s because “It isn’t the first time China’s leaders have called for food and overall economic security,” WSJ’s Lingling Wei writes. “But this time the message comes with strong political overtones, highlighting Mr. Xi’s desire to project an image of strength as he prepares to break the established system of succession.”

Related reading: “House lawmaker calls for legislation to allow a faster US military response should China invade Taiwan,”

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-01-12/taiwan-china-invasion-navy-legislation-ships-luria-biden-4272849.html

----------------------------------------

just practicing ...

Special Forces Will Simulate An Insurgency On U.S. Soil In Upcoming Unconventional Warfare Exercise
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43854/special-forces-will-simulate-an-insurgency-on-u-s-soil-in-upcoming-unconventional-warfare-exercise

The U.S. Army’s annual unconventional warfare exercise Robin Sage is set to kick off across rural North and South Carolina this month, pitting Special Forces candidates against simulated guerillas fighting for the fictional nation of “Pineland.” The exercise is so realistic and spans such a large area that the U.S. Army has issued notices to local law enforcement agencies warning them not to mistake the exercise for a real insurrection, an error that has cost one soldier his life during a previous Robin Sage event.

An Army release given to local outlets in NC and SC this week said that the exercise is designed to represent an “environment of political instability characterized by armed conflict, forcing Soldiers to analyze and solve problems to meet the challenges of this “real-world” training.”

According to the Department of Defense, unconventional warfare, or UW, describes the use of military forces not to destroy or disable enemy forces outright, but instead to bolster or create resistance movements or insurgencies that can disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power. This is typically done by operating alongside or through guerrilla forces or clandestine assets in a hostile or contested area.

... SWCS uses Robin Sage to prepare Army special operators for unconventional warfare environments in which they are forced to call upon their training in small-unit tactics, negotiation skills, key leader engagements, and guerilla warfare.

In a news release issued to nearby local outlets, SWCS said that residents may hear gunfire or see flares going off. The facility ensures residents that “controls are in place to ensure there is no risk to persons or property” and that the Army places safety first.

https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/us-armys-annual-unconventional-warfare-exercise-to-span-25-nc-counties/

The exercise is designed to simulate a special forces-led guerilla campaign against the forces of the “United Provinces of Atlantica,” a fictional island off America’s eastern seaboard. Candidates embed themselves with mock guerillas fighting on behalf of the “Republic of Pineland,” a United States ally. Members of the 1st Batallion, 1st Special Warfare Training Group have even published a 157-page fictional “history” book that provides a worldbuilding backstory for the exercise, titled Atlantica: A Concise History.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/usajfkswcs-needs-new-nerds-dungeons-and-dragons-sci-fifantasy-writers-and-unconventional

« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 07:39:53 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

morganism

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #37 on: January 14, 2022, 11:24:10 PM »
Just thinking back to the invasion of the Crimea, when the locals talked about the "black sweater guys" that supposedly were unmarked infiltrators.

Then the empty ambulances went into the area days later. they never said if they left empty, or were the exfiltration vehicles for the infiltrators....

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #38 on: January 17, 2022, 02:38:21 AM »
Russian Iskander missile systems spotted moving closer to Ukraine
https://defence-blog.com/russian-iskander-missile-systems-spotted-moving-closer-to-ukraine/



Russian high-precision, nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missile systems were spotted moving its western border amid continuing Russian military build-up close to Ukraine’s borders.

According to the Conflict Intelligence Team, an open-source information analysis group, at least two Iskander missile brigades of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Federation are deploying to the westerly region, near Ukraine.

... these trains with missile systems and other military equipment left the Divisional station to Ulan-Ude and Birobidzhan-2 station, near which the 103rd and 107th missile brigades of the Russian army are stationed. These units, armed with Iskanders, are part of the 36th and 35th all-military armies.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1482307663333634051

... Iskander-M brigades are army-level assets, which suggests that the westward movements from all four armies from the Eastern Military District that we have observed earlier involve significant elements of those armies, not just separate battalion tactical groups.

The Ministry of Defence has handwaved those movements as exercises ahead of the big Vostok-2022 maneuvers.

However, Vostok is 8 months away, and the MoD has previously explained troop transfers towards Ukraine with exercises in 2014 and 2015 during the "hot phase" of the war.

-------------------------------------------

Russia moves additional attack aircraft to Ukraine border
https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1482360614249017348?



-------------------------------------------

Russian-backed militants send more tanks to frontline positions of Ukrainian army
https://defence-blog.com/russian-backed-militants-send-more-tanks-to-frontline-positions-of-ukrainian-army/

Russian-backed militants have deployed an additional 275 combat vehicles, including main battle tanks and artillery systems, closer to frontline positions of the Ukrainian army on the country’s war-torn east, according to the press office of the Joint Forces Operation.

The full itemized list from the Joint Forces Operation statement is as follows:

In particular, in the zone “1 Army Corps”, a total of weapons and military equipment 37 units, including:
• in the area of ​​NOVOSELIVKA (31 km from the frontline) – tanks of unknown type (7 units);
• in the area of ​​TERNOVE (57 km from the frontline) – tanks of unknown type (7 units); artillery systems (9 units), armoured vehicles (14 units).

In the area of ​​the so-called “2nd Army Corps”, a total of weapons and military equipment 238 units, including:
• near BUGAIVKA (37 km from the frontline) – 2S1 “Gvosdika” 122mm self-propelled howitzers (14 units), D-30 122mm howitzers (12 units); T-72 tanks (1 unit), T-64 tanks (13 units)
• near SADOVYY (57 km from the frontline) – towed howitzers (6 units);
• near SHYMSHYNIVKA (27 km from the frontline) – tanks of unknown type (10 units);
• near  MIUSYNSK (62 km from the frontline) – artillery systems (15 units), towed howitzers (10 units), tanks of unknown type (19 units).

Also noted is that the work of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) at the temporarily occupied territories was accompanied by difficulties from the armed forces of the Russian Federation.

Small-arms fire was directed at an SMM mini-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) near VASYLIVKA.

In addition, short-range SMM UAVs were affected by GPS interference during flights over areas near VASYLIVKA, KASHTANOVE and KALINOVE.

------------------------------------------

Russian Agents in Ukraine Are Trying to Create a Pretext for Invasion, Pentagon Says
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/01/russian-agents-ukraine-are-trying-create-pretext-invasion-pentagon-says/360776/

------------------------------------------------

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2022, 03:31:08 AM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

johnm33

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #39 on: January 17, 2022, 02:59:43 PM »
Russia invading Ukraine is about as likely as the Hamptons taking over Kensington ave. Philly. However if there's a new attempt by Kiev and Nato to ethnically cleanse Donbass of 'Russians' I suppose they may lay it [Ukraine] to waste with standoff weapons [C&C, airports/fields, bridges, rail heads/junctions etc.]. They seem somewhat prepared for escalation too. https://avia-pro.net/news/rossiyskaya-podvodnaya-lodka-so-160-yadernymi-boegolovkami-poyavilas-u-poberezhya-ssha  . Since 2014 1-3million Ukrainians have moved to Russia, it seems likely that many of them will have joined the army with a view to returning at some point, most of them will have been cycled through the Syrian war zone and be battle hardened, so I'm guessing a large army of Ukrainian natives could suddenly appear fully armed by their allies and ready to roll?

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #40 on: January 18, 2022, 02:15:28 AM »
Russian Landing Ships Leave Baltic Sea Raising Concerns That Ukraine May Be Their Final Destination
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43902/russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-raising-concerns-that-ukraine-may-be-their-final-destination

An additional three amphibious warships remain active in the Baltic Sea, with Sweden taking a heavy interest in their movements.

Three Russian Navy amphibious warfare ships departed the Baltic Sea, headed toward the Atlantic Ocean, as tensions continue to surround Moscow’s build-up of troops and equipment around its borders with Ukraine. A separate flotilla of three Russian landing ships had previously been the cause of recent alarm in Sweden, which sent additional forces to the island of Gotland, in the Baltic, in response to the increased Russian maritime activity in the region.

The trio of vessels that left the Baltic today and are headed for an unknown destination comprise Project 775 Ropucha class amphibious warfare ships. All three, the Korolev, Minsk, and Kaliningrad, are seen in the Tweets embedded above. They departed the port of Baltyysk in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on January 15 and earlier today passed through the Great Belt, the largest of the straits that connect the Baltic to the Kattegat strait and which then leads to the Atlantic Ocean. While naval transits, including those involving landing ships, to and from Kaliningrad are by no means uncommon, Swedish officials have made clear that the current level of activity is unusually high.



The transit of the three Baltic Fleet Ropuchas leaves two Northern Fleet vessels of the same class in the Baltic. These are the Olenegorskiy Gornyak and Georgiy Pobedonosets. Those ships were accompanied there by the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship Pyotr Morgunov last week.

Each Ropucha class ship can carry up to 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops, 550 tons of cargo, or equivalent loads. The more modern Ivan Gren class can carry up to 13 main battle tanks and around 300 troops. It’s unclear what, if any, cargo the vessels are currently carrying.

... The Swedish Armed Forces had already increased readiness in response to a perceived deterioration in the security situation in the Baltic Sea last year. Last August, Swedish armored vehicles were transported by civilian ferry to Gotland, the island occupying a strategic position in the Baltic, as another signal to Russia over its expanded military activity in the region.

--------------------------------------------

More Russian Landing Ships Leave The Baltic Sea Amid Growing Fears Of Invasion Of Ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43914/more-russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-amid-growing-fears-of-invasion-of-ukraine

Six Russian amphibious warfare ships have left the Baltic Sea in the last two days

The Project 775 Ropucha class amphibious warfare ships Olenegorskiy Gornyak and Georgiy Pobedonosets, as well as the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship Pyotr Morgunov, were spotted sailing north through Denmark's Great Belt strait earlier today. Three other Ropuchas, the Korolev, Minsk, and Kaliningrad, made this same trip yesterday.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2022, 11:51:50 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2022, 02:19:47 AM »
‘War Is Coming’: Mysterious TikTok Videos Are Scaring Sweden’s Children
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/war-coming-mysterious-tiktok-videos-are-scaring-swedens-children/360808/

In Sweden, an unusual anxiety is afflicting children and young teenagers. Some can’t sleep. Some ask their parents if Russia is about to attack their country. Where did they get that idea? TikTok.

“War is coming,” say some of the videos that the social-media platform is feeding to young Swedes. Other videos tell their Swedish users that Russian forces will bomb their country or even invade. No wonder the children are becoming anxious. [B[The Chinese-owned, algorithm-driven platform is, in fact, the perfect tool for a country wishing to weaken another country’s morale.[/b]

This weekend a question posted on Twitter turned into a gathering of adults concerned about things they’d been picking up from their nine-, ten-, eleven, twelve-year-old children and pupils. Is it true that information saying that war is coming to Sweden is being pumped out on TikTok? a Twitter user asked. The question drew dozens of parents to report that their young children had suddenly begun asking if Russia was about to invade.

https://twitter.com/emlukina/status/1482265905006583809

On Saturday, the Swedish daily Aftonbladet reported that BRIS – a nationwide Swedish organization that advocates for children’s rights and operates a hotline for children and teenagers – had begun receiving phone calls from children and teenagers anxious about an impending invasion. BRIS social worker Marie Angsell told the newspaper that TikTok’s efficient algorithm, which has perfected individualized feeds, means that children and teenagers who view such videos once are consequently fed more of the same and end up overwhelmed by fear of a looming conflict.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/wO5eqo/bilden-av-ett-sverige-i-krig-sprids-pa-tiktok

Someone is trying to weaken Sweden’s resolve by frightening children. To be sure, anyone might be concerned by news reports of the past week’s failed NATO-Russia negotiations, Russia’s veiled threat of “catastrophic consequence”, and Poland’s warning that Europe is on the brink of war. But few children, tweens, and teens read the newspaper: in Sweden, three percent do so on a daily basis. Some 30 percent, by contrast, use TikTok.

https://www.mpf.se/en/

... The Swedish Psychological Defense Agency was launched on New Year’s Day to strengthen the public’s resilience to disinformation. Importantly, it will also conduct the complicated work of identifying and exposing the perpetrators of disinformation. With the TikTok disinformation campaign in full swing, the Psychological Defense Agency will need to swiftly issue advice – on TikTok perhaps – to children, teenagers, parents, and teachers.

Indeed, other countries should consider a similar move. If the war-anxiety machine hasn’t already reached their children, it will soon. Social media algorithms makes the adage that all is fair in love and war easier than ever to implement.

-------------------------------------------

Microsoft Warns of Destructive Disk Wiper Targeting Ukraine
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/01/microsoft-warns-of-destructive-disk-wiper-targeting-ukraine/

Over the past few months, geopolitical tensions have escalated as Russia amassed tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine’s border and made subtle but far-reaching threats if Ukraine and NATO don’t agree to Kremlin demands.

Now, a similar dispute is playing out in cyber arenas, as unknown hackers late last week defaced scores of Ukrainian government websites and left a cryptic warning to Ukrainian citizens who attempted to receive services.

“All data on the computer is being destroyed, it is impossible to recover it,” said a message, written in Ukrainian, Russian, and Polish, that appeared late last week on at least some of the infected systems. “All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect the worst."



Around the same time, Microsoft said in a post over the weekend, “destructive” malware with the ability to permanently destroy computers and all data stored on them began appearing on the networks a dozens of government, nonprofit, and information technology organizations, all based in Ukraine. The malware—which Microsoft is calling Whispergate—masquerades as ransomware and demands $10,000 in bitcoin for data to be restored.

But Whispergate lacks the means to distribute decryption keys and provide technical support to victims, traits that are found in virtually all working ransomware deployed in the wild. It also overwrites the master boot record—a part of the hard drive that starts the operating system during bootup.

“Overwriting the MBR is atypical for cybercriminal ransomware,” members of the Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center wrote in Saturday’s post. “In reality, the ransomware note is a ruse and that the malware destructs MBR and the contents of the files it targets. There are several reasons why this activity is inconsistent with cybercriminal ransomware activity observed by MSTIC.”

Over the weekend, Serhiy Demedyuk, deputy head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told news outlets that preliminary findings from a joint investigation of several Ukrainian state agencies show that a threat actor group known as UNC1151 was likely behind the defacement hack. The group, which researchers at security firm Mandiant have linked to the government of Russian ally Belarus, was behind an influence campaign named Ghostwriter.

Ghostwriter worked by using phishing emails and theft domains that spoof legitimate websites such as Facebook to steal victim credentials. With control of content management systems belonging to news sites and other heavily trafficked properties, UNC1151 “primarily promoted anti-NATO narratives that appeared intended to undercut regional security cooperation in operations targeting Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland,” authors of the Mandiant report wrote.

https://www.mandiant.com/resources/unc1151-linked-to-belarus-government

Reuters on Monday reported Ukraine’s cyber police found that last week’s defacement appeared to have destroyed “external information resources.”

“A number of external information resources were manually destroyed by the attackers,” the police said, without elaborating. The police added: “It can already be argued that the attack is more complex than modifying the homepage of websites.”

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/crime-pmn/ukrainian-police-say-cyber-attack-destroyed-information-resources-2

... In 2017, NotPetya, a massive outbreak of malware initially believed to be ransomware shut down computers around the world and resulted in $10 billion in total damages, making it the most costly cyberattack ever. ... In 2020, federal prosecutors charged four Russian nationals for alleged hacking crimes involving NotPetya.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/petya-outbreak-was-a-chaos-sowing-wiper-not-profit-seeking-ransomware/

Researchers and government officials have linked Russia to two other cyberattacks targeting Ukraine, a country that seems to be a testing ground for various Russian hacking tools and techniques, including:

- A computer intrusion in late 2015 against regional power authorities in Ukraine caused a power failure that left hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity in the dead of winter.

- Almost exactly one year later, a second attack at an electricity substation outside Kyiv once again left residents without power.

... if concerns about an armed conflict weren’t enough, there’s now reason to consider that tensions could spill into the cyber realm, with potentially much more at stake.

-------------------------------------------

активные мероприятия: aktivnye meropriyatiya

Political warfare conducted by the Soviet or Russian government since the 1920s. It includes offensive programs such as disinformation, propaganda, deception, sabotage, destabilization, subversion, and espionage. The programs are based on foreign policy priorities

... Various techniques are used, and are aimed at influencing a target audience's value system, belief system, emotions, motives, reasoning, or behavior. It is used to induce confessions or reinforce attitudes and behaviors favorable to the originator's objectives, and are sometimes combined with black operations or false flag tactics. It is also used to destroy the morale of enemies through tactics that aim to depress troops' psychological states.

Target audiences can be governments, organizations, groups, and individuals, and is not just limited to soldiers. Civilians of foreign territories can also be targeted by technology and media so as to cause an effect in the government of their country.

-------------------------------------------

... According to U.S. military analysts, attacking the enemy’s mind is also an important element of the People's Republic of China's military strategy. This type of warfare is rooted in the Chinese Stratagems outlined by Sun Tzu in The Art of War and Thirty-Six Stratagems.

圍魏救趙, Wéi Wèi jiù Zhào

... When the enemy is too strong to be attacked directly, attack something they cherish. The idea is to avoid a head-on battle with a strong enemy, and instead strike at their weakness elsewhere. This will force the strong enemy to retreat in order to support their weakness. Battling against a tired and dispirited enemy will give a much higher chance of success.

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫, Chèn huǒ dǎ jié)

When a country is beset by internal problems, such as disease, division, corruption, and crime, it is poorly-equipped to deal with an outside threat. If the enemy is in its weakest state, attack them without mercy and annihilate them to prevent future troubles.

Make a sound in the east, then strike in the west (聲東擊西, Shēng dōng jī xī)

Kill with a borrowed knife (借刀殺人, Jiè dāo shā rén)

------------------------------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Zeug Gezeugt

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2022, 06:45:50 AM »
Just thinking back to the invasion of the Crimea

Technically speaking there was no 'invasion of the Crimea' as the Russian military where already there perfectly legally under their lease agreement with the Ukraine, and in fact the Russians have held Crimea since before the 1776 American war of independence, or 2nd Anglo-Saxon civil war as some of us call it. IIRC Catherine II took it off the Tartars/Ottomans in the 1760s.

In 2014, after the semi-autonomous Crimean Parliament voted to put the secession vote to the Crimean people following what they saw as an unconstitutional US supported neo-Nazi led coup that unseated the democratically elected president of Ukraine, those damn Russkies simply upped the troop numbers to the maximum allowed under the treaty.

So no 'invasion' ... didn't happen, they were there perfectly legally already and for the previous quarter of a millennium ... and then apparently Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert launch ready status to make sure the yanks got the message loud and clear that NATO will never be allowed to take Sevastapol. Never. Ever.

Much like they're saying the rest of Ukraine will never ever be a launch pad for NATO missiles ... plus could you please walk back the Aegis Ashore radar installation that just turned on in Poland as well as the Romanian missile 'defence' against Saddam ... sorry Persia! 

I guess if you put a loaded gun to a Russian's head you might expect some sort of response, at some time, probably of their choosing, unless you're starting to squeeze the trigger. My second guess is that the coming 'invasion' of the rest of Ukraine will only come about if the Ukrainian army seriously tries, again, to ethnically cleanse the Donbass of its ethnically Russian Ukrainian citizens using all the weapons and training it's receiving from the US and EU who allegedly have 10,000 boots on the ground ... at which point Putin has already warned that Ukraine as a state will 'cease to exist'.

My 3rd guess is that the RF military could probably safely take everything up to the left bank of the Dnieper and through to Odessa on the coast and be welcomed as liberators ... give or take a cold winter snap and the loss of Ukrainian gas transit to Nordstream 2.

I still don't think an actual 'military invasion' as defined by the Geneva Conventions and Nuremberg is on the cards but you never know, and nonetheless those Swedish kids should totally be asking their parents why the fuck the US and NATO are double daring the Russians to reintroduce an intermediate nuclear weapons umbrella covering the entirety of Europe.

« Last Edit: January 18, 2022, 06:54:38 AM by Zeug Gezeugt »

morganism

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #43 on: January 18, 2022, 11:19:21 AM »
Russian wants the Donbass for the coal deposits. They can use them, but denying them to the locals makes the Ukrainians double dependent on gas pipelines. Look at the maps, follow the money.

First infrastructure Russia did in Crimea was a new pipeline across the straight back to Russia IIRC...

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2022, 12:36:03 AM »
Russia's Landing Ships Are Headed To The Mediterranean To Join A Growing Armada
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43965/russias-landing-ships-are-headed-to-the-mediterranean-to-join-a-growing-armada

The six Russian amphibious ships, a cruiser, and a destroyer are converging on the Mediterranean, where a U.S. carrier strike group is also sailing.

The Slava class cruiser Varyag, Udaloy class destroyer Admiral Tributs, and the fleet oiler Boris Butoma, all from the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet, are presently taking part in those drills, but will join the amphibious ships in the Mediterranean afterward, according to the press release. Varyag is the flagship of Russia's Pacific Fleet.

Separately, a Russian Navy Vishnya class intelligence-gathering ship, the Vasiliy Tatishchev, was spotted passing through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean yesterday

Russia has said that the forthcoming naval drills in the Mediterranean will be part of a large series of maritime exercises around the world, including in the North Atlantic and Pacific regions, which will involve approximately 140 ships and 60 aircraft, in total.

Authorities in France had announced yesterday that the French Navy's aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle would conduct exercises together with the Truman Carrier Strike Group and its air wing, as well as the Italian carrier Cavour in February.

... and add about 3-5 missile subs (in striking distance) to each side

--------------------------------------------------

Russia Masses Iskander-M Ballistic Missiles Near Ukraine As Its Build-Up Is “Almost Completed”
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43932/russia-masses-iskander-m-ballistic-missiles-near-ukraine-as-its-build-up-is-almost-completed

The continued build-up of Russian troops and equipment in areas of the country adjacent to Ukraine has taken a new and potentially more ominous turn with the appearance of additional Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) systems near the border as well as missile reloads being transported in open-top railcars.

A recent intelligence assessment from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense states that there are now 36 Iskander launchers close to the frontier, putting these missiles within range of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, as well as many critical military targets within Ukraine. As far as is known, all these launchers are for the Iskander-M, which fires an SRBM, although other variants of the Iskander exist, including the Iskander-K firing a cruise missile.

https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/1483551461736947718

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1483770882501791744

https://mobile.twitter.com/gerrydogma/status/1481683082566582276

The report describes “additional tactical groups” of Iskander-Ms having been transferred to Russia’s border regions. Recent videos posted to social media have shown elements of these systems on the move, including additional 9M723 missile reloads transported by train, and clearly visible in open-topped railcars as they pass through Kaluga, around 90 miles southwest of Moscow.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483567849809526792

The Iskander-M system, which has the Western reporting name SS-26 Stone, launches 9M723 ballistic missiles that, according to official figures, have a range of 310 miles, although there is evidence that they can fly further than that. Each missile can carry a payload of up to 1,500 pounds that normally comprises a high-explosive or submunition warhead; other options reportedly include fuel-air explosives and bunker-busters.

Although understood to be held by special munitions units rather than being issued on a regular basis, nuclear warheads are at least available for the Iskander-M and there has been speculation that Russia may even consider moving tactical nuclear weapons closer to Ukraine, too.

The Ukrainian assessment appears to be based on three brigades now being fielded in Russia’s border regions. However, Lee estimates that there are likely more launchers now in the area, equivalent to at least four brigades (48+ launchers), including the examples at the test site at Kapustin Yar, east of Volgograd.

... Should Moscow decide to launch a large-scale offensive against Ukraine, a barrage of missiles launched from Iskander-M systems would be a likely means of destroying critical Ukrainian defense infrastructure ahead of any kind of ground campaign. In this scenario, targets would be likely to include command, communication, and control (C3) targets, including command centers, as well as other significant fixed targets, including runways, and other critical warfighting infrastructure. Hitting key targets farther west in Ukraine with standoff weapons such as Iskander missiles would result in a high probability of destruction without putting Russian airpower at risk. For hardened targets such as buried bunkers and fortified structures, they also offer the best chance at successfully putting them out of action.



A barrage of missiles launched from Iskander-M systems could also be accompanied by Kalibr subsonic cruise missiles launched from submarines and warships assigned to the Black Sea Fleet. These missiles, with an estimated range of over 1,500 miles, have been used by Russia during its campaign in Syria, as have air-launched subsonic cruise missiles delivered by different bomber aircraft.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Zeug Gezeugt

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2022, 04:25:39 AM »
First infrastructure Russia did in Crimea was a new pipeline across the straight back to Russia IIRC...

Yes, the Ukrainian coup government cut off water and gas to Crimea after they seceded, around the same time the Ukrainian military and neo-Nazi death squads were shelling Slavyansk on their way to Donetsk, IIRC.

Water, gas, rail and road transport to Crimea were an early RF priority which they delivered on remarkably quickly. And again, Sevastapol I think was the main driver of the RF support for Crimean secession from Ukraine. They will NEVER EVER give up their Black Sea naval port, far too many Russians have died defending it from the Nazi Wehrmacht and the British Empire before that, not to mention the Ottomans and Tartars before that. It will take nuclear warfare for NATO to take Sevastapol at which point we're all dead or dying.

Coal and heavy industry in the Donbass on the other hand obviously didn't tip the scales in favour of invasion in 2014 so I can't see it being a factor today. The Russians have threatened to annihilate the Ukrainian military and government if they ditch Minsk 2 and attack the Donbass. The Russians also insist they have no interest in invading and taking over Ukraine.

And again I think it's quite clear that so long as the Russian leaning eastern Ukraine remains Ukrainian, with the autonomy guaranteed it under the Minsk agreements, Ukraine as a whole will never enter NATO. It's in the Russians' interest to keep Ukraine as it is, minus Crimean Sevastapol of course. And that's why there's been a frozen conflict in east Ukraine for the last 7 years ... the Russians support Donbass autonomy with covert military aid but do not support its secession.

So I think the current war hysteria is just that, it's US/NATO 'public diplomacy' to hide the fact they're completely freaking out about the Russian ultimatums concerning pan-European security guarantees that include Russia and would require the defacto dissolution of NATO. And it looks like the Germans and French are in favour!

sidd

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #46 on: January 28, 2022, 08:54:59 AM »
Ragozin at intellinews: ukraine swims with sharks

"A year after it all started, Ukraine and the US are hardly speaking with one voice."

"on January 24, Danilov accused Western allies of spreading panic by hyping up the possibility of Russian invasion."

"he even attempted to argue with the Washington Post after it ran an article on October 30, which was the first in a massive wave of alarmist publications and official statements in the US highlighting the allegedly high risk of war in Ukraine. But he said the newspaper wouldn’t listen to him."

"In the weeks that followed the publication, top US officials, including President Biden and State Secretary Blinken, were raising the alarm volume "

"On January 18, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned Ukrainians against being stirred up by “horror stories”. Next day, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy released a video address in which he said that risks of renewed Russian aggression weren’t any higher than any time in the previous eight years"

"Dealing with the US has never been easy for Zelenskiy ... during his presidential campaign in 2018 and early 2019, the DC elite showed the utmost disdain about a Russian-speaking comedian running on the platform of seeking compromise with Putin and letting Ukrainians decide on Nato membership at a referendum "

"Enter Donald Trump, who tried to coerce Zelenskiy into backing up accusations against Joe Biden and his son Hunter"

"Biden’s victory over Trump renewed hopes that the US leadership might start treating Ukraine as a genuine ally"

"Zelenskiy clamping down on Medvedchuk and his TV channels, launching a massive campaign for Nato membership and all in all radically changing tack from his previously dovish and compromise-seeking position on the conflict with Russia."

"Zelenskiy achieved exactly nothing from what was envisaged "

"By the time the US went into red alert mode over “imminent” Russian aggression, Zelenskiy was clearly more preoccupied with domestic politics and the threat of a coup. His messaging became confused as he tried to link his foes, such as oligarch Rinat Akhmetov and ex-president Poroshenko to Russia, while it was clear that if any great power were behind them, then it would be the United States of America."

"The militant street movement, which backs Poroshenko and keeps the threat of a new Maidan alive, is run by Andriy Levus, an activist and former security official directly linked to diaspora organisations created by Nazi collaborators who found refuge in North America under the auspices of the CIA."

"The Ukrainians have reasons to suspect that the United States and Britain, with their radical rhetoric unmatched by the real level of threat as well as their enthusiasm about “brave Ukrainians” fighting and dying for the Western cause, are prepared to throw Ukraine under the bus so as to get Russia bogged down in a devastating war. "

"Ukraine has an America problem on top of its Russia nightmare. Never groomed to be a professional politician, not to mention a national leader, Zelenskiy has to demonstrate the utmost skill to prevent great powers from turning his country into a battlefield."

https://intellinews.com/ragozin-zelenskiy-swimming-in-the-shark-infested-waters-of-friends-and-foes-233028/

Poroshenko is currently facing a charge of treason ...

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/01/26/poro-j26.html

sidd



johnm33

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #47 on: January 28, 2022, 12:35:14 PM »
It seems the Russians are preparing for a war to be fought in Ukraine Poland and Romania. They have begun to send a whole panoply of modern weapons to Donbass, the Donbass militia having been under constant threat and occasional artillary fire into it's civilian areas may be rather less inhibited in where it targets it's newly acquired standoff artillery. Now the whole navy is setting out for exercises.

Russia doesn't want Ukraine, imagine you struggle into a station with all your luggage, you see a big guy struggling with a large suitcase that you recognise as one that was stolen from you 12 years ago, just as you ask him where he got it since it was once yours the handle comes off, he says well if it's yours you can have it, how much would you want it? Even the people [Russians] of Donbass don't want to unite with Russia there are 20million more of more or less useless people, the jet engineers are building engines for Chinas aerospace, the rocket engineers are building N.Koreas hypersonic missiles, almost everyone else with a skill or some get up and go did just that. Would you want to feed, house and pay out pensions/social security to 20million people who hate you?

morganism

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2022, 02:26:12 AM »
Taiwan’s minelayers will turn the South China Sea into a Chinese graveyard

"...First, Taiwan wants to deter a Chinese invasion. The explosive mines will prevent Chinese ships from sailing towards the island nation. And if they dare to do so, they won’t remain alive to see the end results.

Second, Taiwan is eyeing to boost its defence industry. For instance, the ships being used by these mine squadrons are built by Lungteh Shipbuilding Company, which is a major player in Taiwan’s arms industry.

Third, Taiwan is seeking to downsize its reliance on the US defence regime. Under the Joe Biden administration, Taiwan has grown sceptical about the USA’s will to brave China in any case of military invasion. So, Taiwan is becoming self-defendant now.

Indeed, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is equipped with modern warships and frigates, but it still lacks the capability and required skills to execute a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Furthermore, Taiwan’s mining warfare will utterly neuter the PLA Navy’s fighting abilities, thus making it harder for China to launch an amphibious assault against Taiwan.

Taiwan is also producing and deploying two anti-ship cruise missiles that could pose a significant threat to the ships of an invasion force. For instance, the HF III is an indigenous supersonic cruise missile capable of striking ships or land targets, with a range sufficient to strike targets on the Chinese mainland."

Taiwan on Friday commissioned new navy minelayers to add to its defences to counter the rising threat of Chinese invasion. President Tsai Ing-wen herself presided over the commissioning ceremony for the navy’s First and Second Mining Operations Squadrons. Yes, the Taiwanese navy is going to have a separate squadron for mining operations."

https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/01/15/taiwans-minelayers-will-turn-the-south-china-sea-into-a-chinese-graveyard/


johnm33

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #49 on: January 30, 2022, 11:18:56 AM »
A strange way of upping the stakes,
"Since Nazi Ukraina is in total collapse, in practice it is in BANKRUPTCY ,

Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed to consider the issue of providing citizens of the Russian Federation with self-proclaimed People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk the opportunity to claim social benefits and benefits through public services, according to the Kremlin website.

"The Government of the Russian Federation ... to examine the issue of providing citizens of the Russian Federation living in the territories of certain regions of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk with the possibility to submit applications for social benefits and benefits using a single service portal state and municipal without specifying registration in the place of residence in the territory of the Russian Federation and, if necessary, make proposals on changing the procedure for providing relevant payments and social benefits, " reads the list of instructions.

2.332.556 HUMANS live in Donbass................."