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vox_mundi

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War, War, War
« on: April 11, 2021, 05:49:51 PM »
War, War, War

It's that Season again; and those who have squandered humanity's future on the 'Great Game' are dusting off their toys and setting up their pieces on the playing field.

Other threads cover some of the precursors to wars, like inequality, overpopulation, and economic or political rivalry, maybe this should cover, what Carl von Clausewitz had said - "diplomacy by other means." That and mans inhumanity to fellow man.

War is not inevitable, but I wouldn't sell it short

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Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An "Imminent Crisis"
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40016/russian-armor-floods-toward-border-with-ukraine-amid-fears-of-an-imminent-crisis



Trains loaded with large amounts of Russian military hardware, including tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery, appear to be streaming toward the country's borders with Ukraine. There are unconfirmed reports that the scale of these movements is so significant that it has, to the dismay of Russian farmers, disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season. U.S. officials are now worried that a new major round of fighting between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent as a ceasefire is at risk of expiring tomorrow.

It's not entirely clear when the Russian buildup began, but video footage and other imagery reportedly showing armored vehicles and other military equipment on trains heading toward southwestern Russian has been appearing on social media since at least March 27, 2021. There have also been sightings of large ground convoys and groups of aircraft.



https://mobile.twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1376965845172289536

https://mobile.twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1377017401401835521

This includes at least one clip of a trainload of 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, BMP-3 infantry fight vehicles, and other military vehicles, crossing a bridge that now links Russia to the Crimean Peninsula, and footage of what appears to be the same train in the Crimean city of Kerch. Russian forces seized this region from Ukraine in 2014 and the Kremlin subsequently annexed it.

... Though the new Russian military buildup is clearly at least a message meant for Ukrainian authorities, what the Kremlin's exact plan is remains unclear. The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the multinational Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), reportedly failed to agree on the terms of an extension of an existing ceasefire agreement in Donbass beyond April 1.

... Ukraine is not a NATO member or otherwise a formal American ally, though they are an important regional security partner, and it's unclear how willing or able the U.S. government would be to prevent any new major incursion by Russia into Ukraine.

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Turkey Confirms 2 U.S. Destroyers Are Headed For The Black Sea Amid Russia-Ukraine Crisis
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40118/turkey-confirms-u-s-destroyers-are-headed-for-the-black-sea-amid-russia-ukraine-crisis

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Russian Gunboats Head To The Black Sea To Join Military Buildup Near Ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40103/russian-gunboats-head-to-the-black-sea-to-join-troop-buildup-near-ukraine

The Russian Navy is sending 10 vessels, a mixture of landing craft and small gunboats, from its Caspian Sea Flotilla to the Black Sea. The deployment is ostensibly part of a larger series of readiness drills, but comes amid a continuing and worrisome Russian military buildup near the country's borders with Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or OSCE, has also said there has been a spike in GPS jamming in the region, which has impacted its ability to monitor the situation as part of an existing agreement between Russia and Ukraine. All of this only further fuels concerns that a significant escalation in the conflict between these two countries may be imminent. ...

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Kiev estimates there are now 85,000 Russian troops between 6 and 25 miles from its border and in Crimea.

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U.S. And Chinese Carrier Groups Mass In The South China Sea
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40131/u-s-and-chinese-carrier-groups-mass-in-the-south-china-sea

The northern reaches of the South China Sea have become very busy as of late with two U.S. carrier groups and one Chinese carrier group in the region.

Tensions between China and its regional neighbors in the South China and Philippine Seas increased markedly this week. Naval exercises by both the United States and China have massed an unusual number of warships in the South China Sea at a time of renewed diplomatic friction as concerns over China’s territorial ambitions grow.

The uptick began late last week. The War Zone reported that China’s Liaoning Carrier Strike Group (CSG) maneuvered through the strategic Miyako Strait on Sunday, just southwest of Okinawa. Since then, a separate point of tension between China and the Philippines over a 200 ship mass of fishing vessels identified as part of China’s People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) led to a series of heated diplomatic exchanges between Manila and Beijing.

Open-source intelligence analysts tracked the movements of the Liaoning carrier strike group this week as it appeared to traverse the Luzon strait, the body of water that, along with the Bohai Channel, separates the Philippines and Taiwan. This crucially strategic area is also the primary boundary between the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea and connects the greater Pacific to the northern reaches of the South China Sea.

By April 10th, analysts flagged one Type 055 Renhai class missile destroyer and one Type 052D Luyang class destroyer splitting from the group and heading north towards the Taiwan strait:

Imagery derived from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellite identified an unusually large number of military vessels in the South China Sea on Saturday:

Yesterday the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) conducted a coordinated exercise in the South China Sea. The TRCSG consists of the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11, the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), Destroyer Squadron 23, and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Russell (DDG 59). The USS Makin Island's group also consisted of amphibious assault ships the USS Somerset and USS San Diego.

... The Taiwan area has also recently seen an increase in drone incursions. On Wednesday, Taiwanese official Ocean Affairs Council Chair Lee Chung-wei addressed the drone issue, describing them as circling the island. He declared a willingness to shoot them down, stating “if we need to open fire, we will open fire.” Additionally, China has recently invested heavily in coastal bases, such as a massive new helicopter base directly across the strait of Taiwan that could prove essential to a major offensive against the island.

Meanwhile, the week saw a near-constant stream of Chinese overflights of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, there have been 46 overflights across the southwestern portion of the Taiwan Strait. These flights have included as many as fifteen People’s Liberation Army aircraft at one time, including 8 J-10 and 4 J-16 fighter aircraft in one incident.

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meanwhile ...



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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_War_War



https://www.countryjoe.com/war.htm

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2021, 07:30:15 AM »
There are some good news as well :
https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/john-horgan-on-the-end-of-war

It's a very good book about war and how it could end. I haven't finished reading it, but it really makes you wonder why we still have wars.


gerontocrat

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2021, 10:08:19 AM »
The NYT and Bloomberg have been really quiet about Ukraine, Taiwan et al. Maybe the US is mainly concerned with its economic interests?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true
China v Russia v America: is 2021 the year Orwell’s 1984 comes true?

With Putin and Xi moving into an ever closer alliance, Joe Biden’s untested US administration may be pushed to the brink


A Ukrainian serviceman on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists, near Zolote, Ukraine. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Quote
It may just be coincidence that Russia was piling military pressure on Ukraine last week at the same time as China noisily rattled sabres around Taiwan. Spring, to mangle Tennyson, is when a young man’s fancy turns to war – and that twisted maxim may even apply to ageing thugs such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

Russia and China are moving into ever closer alliance. While there is no evidence of direct collusion over Ukraine and Taiwan, presidents Putin and Xi are doubtless fully aware of each other’s actions, which have an identical, mutually reinforcing effect: putting the wind up Joe Biden’s untested US administration.

What’s now unfolding could be portrayed as the ultimate fulfilment of George Orwell’s nightmarish vision, in his dystopian novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, of a world divided geographically, politically and militarily into three rival super-states: Oceania (North America plus Britain), Eurasia (Russia and Europe), and Eastasia (China).

Publication of Orwell’s book in 1949 coincided with the formation of the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) and the emergence of Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union as a nuclear-armed power. It also saw the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China by Mao Zedong. Yet these were early days.

Orwell’s prediction of an endless, three-way global confrontation proved premature. China needed time to develop. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. The US, declaring a unipolar moment, claimed victory. Yet today, by some measures, Orwell’s tripartite world is finally coming into being. 2021 is the new 1984.
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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etienne

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2021, 02:41:14 PM »
For the people refusing wars, the Albert Einstein Institution https://www.aeinstein.org has a lot of information available.

Here is an interesting page for more info about non violent action/fight

https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/correcting-common-misconceptions-about-nonviolent-action/

In the book "The End of War", John Horgan recommends to minimize the risk of terrorism to explain to the terrorists how a non violent fight works and to show them how much more efficient it is. He refers to the Albert Einstein institution for the documentation that could be use for that purpose.

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2021, 08:53:42 PM »
EU Estimates 150,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine’s Borders
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-europe-russia-emmanuel-macron-moscow-99c823234a9aab2db67ddfabba98177a

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union’s foreign policy chief has estimated that more than 150,000 Russian troops have already amassed for the biggest military buildup ever near Ukraine’s borders and that it will only take “a spark” to set off a confrontation.

... More dangerous at this time, Borrell said, was the massing of Russian troops, including military field hospitals, and “all kinds of warfare.” The risk of further escalation — it’s evident,” he told reporters after the meeting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1384136829843107846
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2021, 01:54:14 AM »
Russia’s buildup near Ukraine is huge, satellite photos reveal. The Pentagon on Monday called it the largest since the 2014 invasion. And it’s bigger than has been previously known publicly, according to commercial imagery posted on the WSJ, which “show Su-30 fighters lined up on a runway at an air base in Crimea. The aircraft, which are shown in a satellite photo from April 16, hadn’t been there in late March.” They join “the stationing of Su-34, Su-30, Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft elsewhere in the region”

How big? “According to one U.S. military official, the Russian force currently includes 48 battalion tactical groups, which consist of several hundred soldiers and officers each.”

“Other Russian military units on the Crimean peninsula include airborne troops, motorized rifle and armored units, attack helicopters, smoke generators, reconnaissance drones, jamming equipment and a military hospital, the photos indicate.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/satellite-images-show-russias-expanding-ukraine-buildup-11618917238

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/world/europe/-ukraine-russia-putin-invasion.html

Putin’s purpose? Said press secretary John Kirby in a press briefing, “We certainly heard the Russians proclaim that this is all about training. It's not completely clear to us that's exactly the purpose. So we are — we remain seriously concerned about this build up, and we call on Russia to be more transparent about their intentions.”

Meanwhile, Russia has announced its intentions to block maritime traffic in parts of the Black Sea.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-usa/us-concerned-over-russia-blocking-access-to-parts-of-black-sea-idUSKBN2C7014
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

johnm33

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2021, 10:05:56 AM »
Putin will be making a speech at noon Moscow time today perhaps he'll make it clear whether Russian troops will remain in Russian territory or like Nato send some into Ukraine. With the recent arrest, in Moscow, of the plotters to murder the leaders of Belorus and their families as part of a 'colour' regime change I imagine Russia has carte blanche to operate in and command the resources of Belorus in any conflict that may ensue. At worst the Russians may temporarily occupy Ukraine and allow the different oblasts to choose their own future, independent, part of Russia or joined to Poland/Romania/Bulgaria according to local plebicites.
Should Nato get involved the Russians have stated several times that any attack on Russia will be met with a response aimed at the decision making centers in the west, including continental N. America.
Given the repeated and recent advocacy of pre-emptive strikes against Russia, by various U.S. policy 'think tanks' it seems they're a little sensitive to the possibility of deployment of Nuclear weapons on their borders. They've also made it clear that since the missile sites in Romania and Poland are capable of launching both conventional and nuclear weapons and their radars can't distinguish between them that they have to assume any launch, aimed at Russia, is nuclear and will be reciprocated in a more general and wider response again including continental N. America.

blu_ice

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2021, 11:48:47 AM »
Putin will be making a speech at noon Moscow time today perhaps he'll make it clear whether Russian troops will remain in Russian territory or like Nato send some into Ukraine.
Just FYI, Russian troops have occupied Ukrainian territory since they invaded the country in 2014.

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2021, 10:24:57 PM »
Don't throw away that heavy coat just yet, and you might want to stock up on some sunblock 2 million ... winter is coming ...

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Pentagon Warns Of An “Increased Potential” For Nuclear Conflict In Newly Disclosed Manual
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41421/pentagon-warns-of-an-increased-potential-for-nuclear-conflict-in-newly-disclosed-manual

A U.S. military manual that only recently became public says that the world now faces a higher probability of conflicts involving nuclear weapons. The document, prepared by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, points to multiple nuclear weapons systems and policies being pursued by adversaries and potential adversaries as signs that the world is moving away from de-escalation and is instead moving closer to the reality of a nuclear exchange. While the document avoids placing any weight on United States policy in helping to increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict, it does note that the "flexible" nuclear weapons the US has pursued could be used to defend America and its interests in the event of a regional conflict involving nuclear arms.

A copy of the manual, titled “Joint ­Publication 3-72, Joint Nuclear Operations,” was obtained by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) last week through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and posted online on July 6.

https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2021/07/increased-potential/



https://fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3_72_2020.pdf

In this manual's executive summary, the authors say that, despite United States-led de-escalation and non-proliferation efforts, “since 2010 no potential adversary has reduced either the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy or the number of nuclear weapons it fields.” Instead, the publication asserts, these potential adversaries have “moved decidedly in the opposite direction.” Ultimately, the document claims there is an “increased potential for regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed adversaries in several parts of the world and the potential for adversary nuclear escalation in crisis or conflict” due to these trends.

The document notes that “While the United States has continued to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons, others, including Russia and China, have moved in the opposite direction.” The publication claims that these nations have developed new types of nuclear weapons, placed increased strategic importance on their nuclear weapons, and have all “engaged in increasingly aggressive behavior.”

...In addition to modernizing " legacy" Soviet nuclear systems, Russia is developing and employing new nuclear warheads and launchers. It is also developing three new intercontinental-range nuclear weapon systems; a hypersonic glide vehicle; a nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered ground-launched cruise missile; and a nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered, undersea autonomous torpedo. [...]

China has developed a new road-mobile, strategic, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM); a new multi-warhead version of its DF-5 silo-based ICBM; and its most advanced ballistic missile submarine armed with new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It has also announced development of a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, giving China a nuclear triad. [...]

... The fact that the US is pursuing "flexible," low-yield, tactical warheads capable of reaching targets more quickly could be taken as a sign that the US may be more quick to use its nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict, a development that should be considered in any discussion of nations raising the likelihood of nuclear exchange.


The manual notes that any use of nuclear weapons could affect the entire planet, stating that "the use of nuclear weapons has specific, tangible implications that go well beyond the actual effects of the detonation," creating "harmful effects that conventional weapons do not have." Radioactive fallout, widespread electromagnetic pulse (EMP) damage, and "incidental harm to civilians" are all cited as potential global consequences that commanders have to plan for when considering the use of nuclear weapons. "The potential consequences of using nuclear weapons will greatly influence military operations and vastly increase the complexity of the operational environment," the manual claims.

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Game of Thrones – Season 3 Episode 6
« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 01:29:39 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2021, 01:18:13 AM »
Biden Warns Cyber Attacks Could Lead to a “Real Shooting War”
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/biden-warns-cyber-attacks-could-lead-to-a-real-shooting-war/
https://breakingdefense.com/2021/07/biden-issues-national-security-memorandum-on-critical-infrastructure/

President Joe Biden has warned that cyberattacks could escalate into a full-blown war as tensions with Russia and China mounted over a series of hacking incidents targeting US government agencies, companies, and infrastructure.

Biden said on Tuesday that cyber threats including ransomware attacks “increasingly are able to cause damage and disruption in the real world.”

... "I think it's more than likely we're going to end up, if we end up in a war - a real shooting war with a major power - it's going to be as a consequence of a cyber breach of great consequence, and it's increasing exponentially," president Biden said Tuesday

A number of recent hacks revealed the extent of US cyber vulnerability, ranging from extensive espionage breaches that have struck at the heart of government to ransomware attacks that have brought operations at an important oil pipeline and meat packing plants to a halt.

The Biden administration has accused the governments of Russia and China, or hackers based inside the two countries, of some of the attacks. US officials have warned that the administration would respond with a “mix of tools seen and unseen” actions, but cyber breaches have continued.

... “Mr. Putin... has a real problem. He is sitting on top of an economy that has nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else. Nothing else,” Biden said. “He knows he’s in real trouble, which makes him even more dangerous.”

... Biden stressed that cyberattacks were just one aspect of the growing threats facing the US, saying that there would be more developments in the next 10 years than in the past 50, placing a tremendous burden on the intelligence community.

“It’s really going to get tougher,”
he said.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: War, War, War
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2021, 07:36:17 AM »
And Pakistan and Iran all had a population that exploded the last 50 years. So the world will probably soon have an islamic state army with nuclear weapons.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/28/war-all-around-the-city-residents-fear-of-taliban-advance