War, War, War

[Neven]

The Russian federation collapses before Ukraine does.

Is this what you want to happen? Do you think that's a good idea?

[KiwiGriff]

What I want is for Russia to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine.
If that means the Russian federation must collapse so be it.

This war is about Putin trying to reestablish the old soviet empire as his legacy .
This goal  has already failed .

Trying to take Ukraine is already costing Russia far more than it can afford.
 Russia has lost   about  60plus percent  of the legacy soviet arsenal they inherited, economy in screwed. inflation is rampant, interest rates skyrocketing, exchange rate tanking  and around three million adult breeding age males  have fled or been killed and maimed distorting their demographics even worse than it was .

Ukraine does not want to be a part of Russia.
Long term Trying to hold what they have annexed of  Ukraine will be an impossible task. 
 
fwiw
Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for a treaty with Russia to respect its borders
As Russia has failed to do so. I believe  Ukraine has the right to invite others to supply a nuclear deterrent  onto its territory.
This is backed by actual signed treaty's not bullshite and hearsay properganda as you vatniks resort to .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

  The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three substantially identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary, on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The three memoranda were originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.[1] China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[2]

The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance,[3] prohibited Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

[Freegrass]

Stunning indifference. Or scared to talk about politics in Putin's Russia?

Or perhaps Russians have different attitudes and cultural values than you do?

They definitely do. I'm not a gay basher.

And what Kiwi said.

Also noticeable that you ignored my comment on Belarus, and how Putin kept Lukashenko in the saddle while the populations voted him out. I guess you hate voting as much as vaccines.

I'm outa here again. This discussion is insane. To defend a criminal gay bashing murderer like Putin is madness. Maybe you should watch the movie “Mr. Jones”, and then come and tell me again about the wonderful relation Russia has with Ukraine.

Must see movie!
https://www.lookmovie2.to/movies/play/1696585141-mr-jones-2019#

[Neven]

What I want is for Russia to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine.

The Russians want their security concerns to be respected as well. They've asked politely for almost 20 years, but were told to shut up and fuck off at every turn, while seeing how Ukraine was slowly turned into a weapon to hurt Russia.

You would've acted the exact same way they have, and probably much worse. If the same thing was happening in Mexico, US neocons would give it the Gaza treatment.

If that means the Russian federation must collapse so be it.

So, you're willing to risk WW3 for the sake of upholding your one-sided fairytale?

This war is about Putin trying to reestablish the old soviet empire as his legacy .

That's your opinion based on one-sided propaganda, not an established fact. Putin has said the opposite on several occasions, as it would make no sense whatsoever. What does make sense, is that Russia doesn't want NATO weapons on its borders. Nobody in their right mind would accept such a thing.

Trying to take Ukraine is already costing Russia far more than it can afford.
 Russia has lost   about  60plus percent  of the legacy soviet arsenal they inherited, economy in screwed. inflation is rampant, interest rates skyrocketing, exchange rate tanking  and around three million adult breeding age males  have fled or been killed and maimed distorting their demographics even worse than it was .

Maybe they consider that not doing anything will cost them much more in the long-term.

Ukraine does not want to be a part of Russia.
Long term Trying to hold what they have annexed of  Ukraine will be an impossible task.

It depends on how much they annex, and how much they annex, depends on how much longer this stupid war continues. In the end, it will be clear as day that the Minsk Agreements and the 2022 Istanbul peace deal would have been much more preferable than the madness that you have supported and continue to support, to the detriment of the Ukrainian people.

As for nuclear weapons, I believe that they should also be given to Mexico, Cuba and Venezuela. Maybe give the Palestinians, Lebanese, Egyptians, Syrians and Jordanians a couple as well. That would only be fair.

[SteveMDFP]

Lets assume NATO didn't make the agreement and the West is 100% correct and I drop the "1 more inch" aspect.

Back in 1948, the USSR and USA both disdained each other's way of life.

Stalin wanted a buffer between the USSR and the West (and reparations from Germany, which was not a good idea anyway)  because neither side trusted each other. Remember, Russia has been invaded multiple times over the centuries, being wary of invasion matters and is justified. We, in the West, need to remember that aspect much more because it matters when attempting to understand the Russian mindset.

There is a lot going on between the West and USSR back in the 40s and it all relates to massive distrust on both sides (it is difficult to argue against either side distrusting each other as unjustified as it was)

We need to remember that the USSR expanded to create a buffer between Russia and the West.
And the West viewed the USSR expansion as empire building.

Both sides have a defendable point.

Since then, the USSR collapsed, Russia remains justifiably suspicious of the West and the US because the US opening wants to bring down Russia, and Russia has made repeated calls for the West to stay away from the Russian borders (this means NATO).

The recurring theme here is Russia wants a buffer from the West because the West are opening hostile toward Russia.

And since those calls have been ignored, since the US keeps adding military bases and assets into Europe and remain a long way from the potential front line and Russia is on the front line, and since the US keeps being hostile to Russia in other ways, Russia feels threatened.

I am not sure how anyone can argue against the idea that Russia is being threatened by the US.

If you look at China and the bullshit the US is doing to China with military assets and Taiwan (which is just an excuse for the US to be in the region), is it so difficult to think that Russia has a point when it says Russia feels threatened by the West?

Russia was clear... don't mess with Ukraine. They were ignored.

What did the West expect Russia to do... nothing?

A hostile force sets up bases on borders and Russia is meant to just be okay with that?

And the US was prepared to start WW3 over Cuba even though the US knew that having missiles in Cuba changed nothing in real terms.... but the US went in hard anyway and everything thinks that was a great standoff but when Russia does it... it is evil, unwarranted, unjustified and just expansion.

A few points here merit rebuttal:

When the US sets up a foreign military base, it is at the invitation of the host country.  There is nothing aggressive about this process.  The host country is usually a democracy, and the base siting is usually with the approval of the populace.  (An exception is the ungoverned areas of Syria, which I agree should be dismantled). The host country usually considers the bases to enhance national security, and receives rent and local economic benefits.  The host country retains sovereignty and can terminate the arrangement.  The Philippines has has done so, and the US complied.

Every sovereign nation has the right to enter into alliances at will.  It is an affront to Ukraine's sovereignty to insist that it must relinquish this right.  Nobody went to war when the Warsaw Pact was formed, even though this happened without the consent of the people.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was *not* about the Soviet Union having bases in Cuba, it was about siting nukes there.  The resolution was *not* simply the Kremlin removing the nukes, it was a negotiated agreement that the US would withdraw nukes from Turkey in exchange for the removal of nukes from Cuba.  This was a good, negotiated resolution,  Currently, both Russia and China have bases in Cuba.  This is a diplomatic non-issue.  Cuba, as a sovereign nation, has every right to have these.

This comes up because of Putin's rhetoric of "not one inch."  There were preliminary ideas floated in advance of the formal agreement to reunify Germany.  Ultimately, the final agreement contained no such assurance, but reiterated the newly-sovereign nation's right to be a NATO member:

Two-Plus-Four Treaty on Germany
https://ghdi.ghi-dc.org/pdf/eng/Two_Plus_Four_Treaty.pdf

There were certainly side-agreements to this treaty.  Mary Sarotte has dug into recently-declassified documents to report on these side-agreements:

Not One Inch
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300268034/not-one-inch/

By her report in interviews, the Kremlin relinquished any expectations to limit NATO in exchange for financial support.  Documents are cited and quoted in the book.

It was a different time.  There was talk then of Russia itself becoming a member of NATO's "Partners for Peace" program. 

This is all relevant because of Putin's misleading rhetoric.  At the time of the invasion, Ukraine had zero prospects of joining NATO, being embroiled in territorial disputes.  There was zero prospect of Ukraine siting nukes on its territory. 

None of the stated reasons for Putin's invasion make rational sense.  His actual reasons are only known to him.  However, we can infer his reasons if we judge Putin to be a rational actor.  One hypothesis is presented here, which I find compelling:

https://youtu.be/diBkosaizxA?si=egTY7DMnZTDJYA-b

In short, the Ukrainian territory Putin has most vigorously pursued has mind-boggling natural resources (not even fully described here).  If a sovereign Ukraine were permitted to develop these resources, it would be financially dangerous to Russia's dominance in markets that are crucial for its prosperity.

Follow the money.

[etienne]

I wonder if all the people here supporting Russia and living in the western world have read Thoreau :

It is not a man’s duty, as a matter of course, to devote himself to the eradication of any, even the most enormous wrong; he may still properly have other concerns to engage him; but it is his duty, at least, to wash his hands of it, and, if he gives it no thought longer, not to give it practically his support. If I devote myself to other pursuits and contemplations, I must first see, at least, that I do not pursue them sitting upon another man’s shoulders. I must get off him first, that he may pursue his contemplations too. See what gross inconsistency is tolerated.

Talking is not enough, action is required. Action doesn't mean posting on social networks.
Somehow I find it disgusting how people here talk about wrongs and rights in a geopolitical and historical dimension, being based safely in Canada, Australia, the EU... when war mainly results in the destruction of lives and infrastructures.

[Neven]

I wonder if all the people here supporting Russia and living in the western world

Who are all these people here?

[Rodius]

Follow the money.

Interesting how you say follow the money.

The answer to that question is the USA makes the most money from this shit storm.

If, for a moment, you stand back to take the Russian perspective, I wonder if you would adapt your thinking somewhat?

The US makes a lot of money from this, is far away from the fighting, and allows US influence to spread via political pressure. They gain the benefits with few negatives.

Russia is a homeland that has repeatedly been invaded by Western powers throughout history. This fight they are in is about their existence. I agree there is more to it than that because Putin isn't some angel, but for the most part, Russia doesn't like being invaded.

The US is a proven aggressive empire who dislikes Russia and has actively worked toward undermining Russia for many decades and worked very hard to stop any economic benefits like open trade between Europe and Russia.

I don't defend the Russian attack on Ukraine, but it makes sense in many ways. Given how the US behaves on the international stage, I wouldn't trust them either. The US routinely removes people from leadership positions if those leaders don't jump to the US drum (Australia is a victim of leadership change once and there is enough evidence to suggest it happened a second time last decade)

This isn't about who is worst or best.... this is about Russia being ignored and undermined for decades and Russia is sick of it. SIck of the promises being broken, of agreements being ignored, of interference in economic matters that have little to do with the US directly.

The US only understands military strength.
When all avenues of diplomacy are exhausted, the only answer is war. We can all agree that the situation in Ukraine is a mess that needs to stop, but it cant stop unless the US agrees to use diplomatic means and stick to the agreements that are made.

The answer to the problem is for the US and Russia to have a serious talk and to understand that there are new borders that need to be drawn up. The longer it takes to understand that reality, the sooner the killing can stop. You don't have to like the idea of new borders, but which is worse?

New borders of multiple thousands of more dead people to bury?

Russia has won the war.
Russia doesn't need to hurry because the war is won, it is helping other nations to see the US is beatable and emboldens countries to stand up to the international bully.

I may not know much, I may misunderstand some things, but I am as sure as fuck on this thing.... bullies are scared and lash out when challenged and run away quickly when the fight gets too much for them.

The US is close to lashing out... do we really want that to happen?
And should the US lash out, the fight will hurt them much more than they are prepared to handle and they will run away.
From that point on, the US empire is essentially ended and new powers swoop in and make the rules.

That all sounds far to chaotic to be a smooth process with unknow ends.

The answer is simple.
The US needs to start using diplomacy and mean what they say. Reduce their military by half. And start working to ward a world with several strong nations that, regardless of culture and political approach, can work together to resolve more important problems like global warming and the every existence of this rather fragile, baby, global civilisation.

[John_the_Younger]

Interesting how you say follow the money.

The answer to that question is the USA makes the most money from this shit storm.

I don't get it - maybe there is information out there I just don't know about.  Do tell!

My understanding: The US Congress agrees to send up to a-bunch-of-money's worth of weapons to Ukraine and the US President doles this out over time.  As Congress did not created an income stream to match the expenditure, the US national debt grows and its material wealth doesn't.  Yes, military industrial manufacturers get paid lots of money for lots of product that would not have been ordered, otherwise, but it is the American government paying, not any other country.  I sure the US sends some "cash" to Ukraine to support government function and military efforts, but this is Ukrainians getting US dollars, not the US getting any from someone else.

I can understand how well placed, as well as corrupt, individuals here and there could profit under cover of the relatively vast sums of weaponry and money getting passed around (and some of it getting purloined).  Some of that personal wealth accumulation will be by Americans.

And yes, the US government is "buying" friends and "influencing" others with its checkbook, but how is this "making the most money"? Is the US receiving Ukrainian products at less-than-bargain-basement prices?

I'll accept the argument that the US, these days, is trying to sink Russia (even though I thought, at the time, that Russia had a good chance of become a US ally in 1989-90, as alluded to above). But this is part and parcel of how adversaries treat each other - we try to influence your elections yada yada yada.

[Rodius]

Interesting how you say follow the money.

The answer to that question is the USA makes the most money from this shit storm.

I don't get it - maybe there is information out there I just don't know about.  Do tell!

My understanding: The US Congress agrees to send up to a-bunch-of-money's worth of weapons to Ukraine and the US President doles this out over time.  As Congress did not created an income stream to match the expenditure, the US national debt grows and its material wealth doesn't.  Yes, military industrial manufacturers get paid lots of money for lots of product that would not have been ordered, otherwise, but it is the American government paying, not any other country.  I sure the US sends some "cash" to Ukraine to support government function and military efforts, but this is Ukrainians getting US dollars, not the US getting any from someone else.

I can understand how well placed, as well as corrupt, individuals here and there could profit under cover of the relatively vast sums of weaponry and money getting passed around (and some of it getting purloined).  Some of that personal wealth accumulation will be by Americans.

And yes, the US government is "buying" friends and "influencing" others with its checkbook, but how is this "making the most money"? Is the US receiving Ukrainian products at less-than-bargain-basement prices?

I'll accept the argument that the US, these days, is trying to sink Russia (even though I thought, at the time, that Russia had a good chance of become a US ally in 1989-90, as alluded to above). But this is part and parcel of how adversaries treat each other - we try to influence your elections yada yada yada.

Follow the money was in reference to someone saying money is being made by people.
So when I responded, the context wasn't the US as a country makes money, it is the people and companies within the US that make the money from the war.

Politicians also make money, but the money comes from tax payers so making a profit for the country isn't important... just reshuffle the tax system and wait to go bankrupt as a country... not the rich people, the country.

So, follow the money refers to the people/companies who make the most out of the war in Ukraine. Not the US as a country.

As for the US influencing elections... when that is done the US cant stand up and tell the world how they are the example of democracy working for the people when they remove elected officials  from office in modern democracies.

And to make it worse, the US does it to allies. Not sure how that fits into being okay in your head. But when the US removes on PM from Australia because he didn't want to do what the US told him, that is really bad.
And it is arguable it happened last decade with Kevin Rudd when he didn't want to play to the tune of the US.

So... Australia is not an adversary to the US, and the US still replaces our politicians when they don't do what the US tells them to do.

But the US doesn't care which country is involved, it doesn't matter if the leaders were elected by the people in fair elections... what matters is the US only wants people who do what they are told... and that is typically related to extracting assets and minerals from whichever country the US wants to steal from said country.

And the US doesn't buy and influence with a chequebook, they do with guns and missiles and threats of destruction.

And people wonder why Russia doesn't trust the US.

[etienne]

I wonder if all the people here supporting Russia and living in the western world

Who are all these people here?

We are all concerned, me the first. I live in Luxembourg, work for a local administration, so I get my salary from taxes on businesses I wouldn't approve. But I find it always more difficult to see war justified by all kinds of reasons when the result on the ground is the destruction of life. Putin could also have put sanctions on the EU (he still export natural gas to the EU) instead of starting a war.

[Rodius]

I wonder if all the people here supporting Russia and living in the western world

Who are all these people here?

We are all concerned, me the first. I live in Luxembourg, work for a local administration, so I get my salary from taxes on businesses I wouldn't approve. But I find it always more difficult to see war justified by all kinds of reasons when the result on the ground is the destruction of life. Putin could also have put sanctions on the EU (he still export natural gas to the EU) instead of starting a war.

What is truly crazy is Russia and the EU could have had close economic ties that would have avoided the Ukraine situation except the US didn't want any of that to happen.

The EU need to grow a backbone, not just against the US, but toward Russia as well now.

[SteveMDFP]

Follow the money was in reference to someone saying money is being made by people.
So when I responded, the context wasn't the US as a country makes money, it is the people and companies within the US that make the money from the war.

Politicians also make money, but the money comes from tax payers so making a profit for the country isn't important... just reshuffle the tax system and wait to go bankrupt as a country... not the rich people, the country.

So, follow the money refers to the people/companies who make the most out of the war in Ukraine. Not the US as a country.

The response by the US and EU has certainly enriched the MIC and its shareholders.  But the MIC is just one arm of the global corporate capitalist octopus.  There are many arms, more all the time.  Many of those other arms of the octopus have been financially hurt by the US/EU response.

Almost every corporate investment in Russia had to be written off.  Creditors have had to write off loans.  Any investment denominated in rubles has been devastated.  The one arm of the octopus that has benefited does not outweigh the losses of the other arms.  Profit motives haven't driven the EU/US response, it has tempered them.

Ukraine was developing the potential to be a strong economic competitor to every major good that Russia exports. The prices that Russia can command for these goods would have been seriously eroded with time.  The invasion appears carefully crafted to eliminate Ukraine's ability to become a strong economic competitor.  In contrast, the stated reasons for the invasion provide little rational justification for such a massively costly operation. 

[Altai]

Ukraine was developing the potential to be a strong economic competitor to every major good that Russia exports. The prices that Russia can command for these goods would have been seriously eroded with time.  The invasion appears carefully crafted to eliminate Ukraine's ability to become a strong economic competitor.  In contrast, the stated reasons for the invasion provide little rational justification for such a massively costly operation.

This is ridiculous. Ukrane was the most developed part of the USSR with great economic potential around 1991, but they lost it the next 30 years.

[Altai]

It is also interesting that maidans in 2008 and 2013 happened at the moment of economic growth and in both cases they caused rapid decline of ukranian economy the following years.

[SteveMDFP]

Ukraine was developing the potential to be a strong economic competitor to every major good that Russia exports. The prices that Russia can command for these goods would have been seriously eroded with time.  The invasion appears carefully crafted to eliminate Ukraine's ability to become a strong economic competitor.  In contrast, the stated reasons for the invasion provide little rational justification for such a massively costly operation.

This is ridiculous. Ukrane was the most developed part of the USSR with great economic potential around 1991, but they lost it the next 30 years.

The natural gas fields were only fairly recently discovered, along with oil fields offshore Crimea.  Yes, Ukraine has been well-developed in agriculture, manufacturing, and coal mines.  However, the large resources in titanium, uranium, gold, and rare earth metals are largely untapped.  I think lithium is relatively unimportant.

Together, these are the same goods that Russia dominates and relies on for trade income.  A nearby competitor in these same goods represents an existential economic threat.  No wonder Putin has acted to keep these off the market.

[Altai]

Ukraine was developing the potential to be a strong economic competitor to every major good that Russia exports. The prices that Russia can command for these goods would have been seriously eroded with time.  The invasion appears carefully crafted to eliminate Ukraine's ability to become a strong economic competitor.  In contrast, the stated reasons for the invasion provide little rational justification for such a massively costly operation.

This is ridiculous. Ukrane was the most developed part of the USSR with great economic potential around 1991, but they lost it the next 30 years.

The natural gas fields were only fairly recently discovered, along with oil fields offshore Crimea.  Yes, Ukraine has been well-developed in agriculture, manufacturing, and coal mines.  However, the large resources in titanium, uranium, gold, and rare earth metals are largely untapped.  I think lithium is relatively unimportant.

Together, these are the same goods that Russia dominates and relies on for trade income.  A nearby competitor in these same goods represents an existential economic threat.  No wonder Putin has acted to keep these off the market.

Oil and gas fields rather small, no comparison to the russian ones.

[kassy]

The response by the US and EU has certainly enriched the MIC and its shareholders.  But the MIC is just one arm of the global corporate capitalist octopus.  There are many arms, more all the time.  Many of those other arms of the octopus have been financially hurt by the US/EU response.

Please give some examples. I think the many arms are fine.

[SteveMDFP]

The response by the US and EU has certainly enriched the MIC and its shareholders.  But the MIC is just one arm of the global corporate capitalist octopus.  There are many arms, more all the time.  Many of those other arms of the octopus have been financially hurt by the US/EU response.

Please give some examples. I think the many arms are fine.

Foreign companies have lost over $100 billion in the process of leaving Russia since it started the war in Ukraine
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-exiting-foreign-companies-lose-billions-writedowns-asset-sales-2024-3#:~:text=Foreign%20companies%20have%20lost%20over,started%20the%20war%20in%20Ukraine&text=Foreign%20companies%20exiting%20Russia%20over,amassed%20losses%20of%20%24107%20billion.

[WildFit]

Interesting how you say follow the money.

The answer to that question is the USA makes the most money from this shit storm.

I don't get it - maybe there is information out there I just don't know about.  Do tell!

My understanding: The US Congress agrees to send up to a-bunch-of-money's worth of weapons to Ukraine and the US President doles this out over time.  As Congress did not created an income stream to match the expenditure, the US national debt grows and its material wealth doesn't.  Yes, military industrial manufacturers get paid lots of money for lots of product that would not have been ordered, otherwise, but it is the American government paying, not any other country.  I sure the US sends some "cash" to Ukraine to support government function and military efforts, but this is Ukrainians getting US dollars, not the US getting any from someone else.

I can understand how well placed, as well as corrupt, individuals here and there could profit under cover of the relatively vast sums of weaponry and money getting passed around (and some of it getting purloined).  Some of that personal wealth accumulation will be by Americans.

And yes, the US government is "buying" friends and "influencing" others with its checkbook, but how is this "making the most money"? Is the US receiving Ukrainian products at less-than-bargain-basement prices?

I'll accept the argument that the US, these days, is trying to sink Russia (even though I thought, at the time, that Russia had a good chance of become a US ally in 1989-90, as alluded to above). But this is part and parcel of how adversaries treat each other - we try to influence your elections yada yada yada.

Yes the debts of the country grows and the pockets of the bought polititians and their tools get filled with that very money that is basically stolen from their own people as well as from all foreign countries that they either exoploit directly and/or pay with USD that looses value on a regular basis, 94% in 50 years to be rather exact, starting when the USD got out of the Gold standard, around 34 USD per ounce.

[Altai]

Russia has just started Kursk counteroffensive.

[WildFit]

Russia has just started Kursk counteroffensive.

Sure, was to be expected and they took 100k km2 in the first few hours back home.

I have no clue what people are smoking who dreamt otherwise. Russia always takes it's time to prepare and think things through. The only times I remember when they got caught on the wrong footing was when their opponents were even more stupid than what they expected.

[cognitivebias2]

...
 Russia always takes it's time to prepare and think things through.
...

Spoken like a true fanboy.  I get a totally different vibe watching the war efforts.  Here's an example of 'piss poor planning'.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64664944

[Freegrass]

When an oil well has to stop producing in the Arctic, it freezes, and can't be used again. This very interesting video discusses the severe energy crisis Russia is facing due to Ukrainian drone strikes and international sanctions. The crisis is causing significant damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure, leading to long-term economic instability.

[johnm33]

It's curious that an American would do a puff piece like that which suggests that it itself that is vulnerable to attacks on it's refineries, at a time when it's strategic reserves have been reduced to their lowest in decades.
Russia cannot run out of money, it prints it's own, and being an autarky besides tropical foodstuffs has minimal needs it can't itself satisfy. Germany however has a refinery that is tuned to processing Ural crude so taking out Russian infrastructure to supply it will be a major victory for the US in at least the ruination of Germany part of it's overall war objectives, because with Germany's ruin there inevitably follows the collapse of Europe as a competitor and it's total subjection, vassalage and dependence to and on the US. Already the loss of cheap Russian gas has led to an announcement from VW that it is to begin closing down it's German plants, many more energy intense industries will follow willfully or not. I guess the big question is who will recruit more German engineers and technicians the US or Russia?
Putins take on using more sophisticated weapons to attack targets deeper inside Russia.

"There is an attempt to substitute concepts. Because we are not talking about allowing or prohibiting the Kiev regime to strike at Russian territory.

It is already striking with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles and other means. But when it comes to using high–precision long-range Western-made weapons, it's a completely different story.

The fact is that, as I have already said, and any experts will confirm this (both here and in the West), the Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern high-precision long-range systems of Western production. It can't do that.
This is possible only with the use of satellite data, which Ukraine does not have — this is data only from satellites of either the European Union or the United States, in general, from NATO satellites.

This is the first one.

The second, and very important, perhaps key, is that flight missions to these missile systems can, in fact, only be carried out by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.

And therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not to allow it. It's about deciding whether NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict or not. If this decision is made, it will mean nothing more than the direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, and European countries in the war in Ukraine.

This is their direct involvement. And this, of course, significantly changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict. This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are at war with Russia.
And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created to us."

[SteveMDFP]

It's curious that an American would do a puff piece like that which suggests that it itself that is vulnerable to attacks on it's refineries, at a time when it's strategic reserves have been reduced to their lowest in decades.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve?  This is a non-issue.  The whole point of it is to store up fuel when supplies are abundant and prices are low, and release stores when supplies are tight and prices high.  Properly managed, this both makes money for the government and stabilizes prices.  Currently, prices of crude have dropped to the lowest level in 3 years, and the reserve is being re-filled, appropriately.  For much of the past 3 years, prices spiked, and stores were thus released, appropriately.  If stores were never released, it wouldn't be serving any useful purpose.

Russia cannot run out of money, it prints it's own,

Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina have experience with this.  To be sure, the Russian central bank is smarter than these nations.  Further collapse of the Ruble has been prevented by raising interest rates, currently 19%.  The effects of this on an economy are non-trivial.  Despite this exceptional policy, current inflation is 9.1%.  There's always a piper to pay.

[KiwiGriff]

The second, and very important, perhaps key, is that flight missions to these missile systems can, in fact, only be carried out by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.

I very much doubt with over 37,000,000 people ukraine has no one that can learn a simple programming procedure .
Weapons are made to work in a war.
You do not deign something that takes years to master if you can avoid it.

 Just another one of Putin's empty threats against the west.

[Florifulgurator]

(...)Russia cannot run out of money, it prints it's own, and being an autarky besides tropical foodstuffs has minimal needs it can't itself satisfy. (...)

Then what are Russian mercenaries doing in Africa?


https://rdi.org/articles/african-gold-is-funding-the-war-in-ukraine/

(...)
The Wagner Group has been active in Africa since at least 2017, first arriving in Sudan to prop up Omar al-Bashir. A coup in 2019 overthrew al-Bashir, and a second in 2021 led to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan assuming control of the country. Al-Burhan and his coup regime then leaned further toward Russia, offering it unprecedented access to the gold industry in exchange for support from Wagner mercenaries.

In Sudan, Wagner manages mines and a major gold processing facility through a series of shell companies, skirting local restrictions on foreign ownership. From 2021 until mid-2022, at least 16 planes loaded with gold departed Sudan for a Russian-controlled airbase in Syria. The planes flew under falsified manifests claiming they were transporting cheap goods (...)

In the Central African Republic, Wagner (...)

[Rodius]

(...)Russia cannot run out of money, it prints it's own, and being an autarky besides tropical foodstuffs has minimal needs it can't itself satisfy. (...)

Then what are Russian mercenaries doing in Africa?

Russia is in Africa for the same reason every Western power is there... to steal the resources.

I seriously doubt Russia is anywhere near the worst offender... any guesses who the top three worst countries (or companies from a country) are?

Africa has been fucked over by the US, France, the UK, and anyone else who has the ability to do it. It keeps African nations poor while the West, who cause the problems, blame Africa for it.

It would be nice to see a discussion about the wars and situation in Africa but that discussion rarely happens. As a man pointing a gun at my head said to me in an African country, "Nobody cares what happens in Africa unless a White man dies here. Then everyone cares and lots of Black people die. That is why I don't shoot you."

He isn't wrong, although he could easily have added resources to his short list.

[johnm33]

Then what are Russian mercenaries doing in Africa?

The US[UK/French] mo is to support the government elected or otherwise, to support the rebels who wish to replace them and to support the bandits/revolutionaries who need to rob both. Different departments channel aid[armament] to the different factions [often delivered by the same plane] in return for access to resources or delivered resources. No side is allowed to become victorious so some faction in various countries have decided to source their 'aid'[armaments] from Russia instead in the hope of prevailing.
Looking at it's high and mighty virtue signalling mission you'd think an honest programme by the RDI would keep them busy inside the North American continent for a generation or two, actually we could use some of that in the UK too.

[Freegrass]

Excellent summary of why it all went wrong for Putin in Ukraine. His arrogance is destroying Russia, and will soon cost him his life if the news about the increasing opposition in his country is true. Taking the war on Russian land was a brilliant move from Ukraine. I wonder if those Russians in that video I posted before still think the war is far away. Russian are fed up with Putin, and his end is near.

[Altai]

Funny. Opposition to Putin in Russia on the lowest level ever. The only effect of Kursk avantire is the lengtening of the front, unfavorable for the weaker side and greater number of volunteers in the Russian army. Zelensky last try, like Balatone or Ardennes of Hitler. By the way, ukrs use the same symbols and Nazists Bandera and Shuhevich sre their official state heros.

[Altai]

Evil Putin- Sauron is watching you! Booooo!

Excellent summary of why it all went wrong for Putin in Ukraine. His arrogance is destroying Russia, and will soon cost him his life if the news about the increasing opposition in his country is true. Taking the war on Russian land was a brilliant move from Ukraine. I wonder if those Russians in that video I posted before still think the war is far away. Russian are fed up with Putin, and his end is near.

[SteveMDFP]

\ Russian are fed up with Putin, and his end is near.

For once, I agree with Altai, on this point.  One should not underestimate the deep well of respect, admiration, and appreciation that the Russian people have for Putin.  The Gorbachev and Yeltsin years were marked by unbelievable chaos, destruction, and collapse of multiple institutions.  Before Putin took control, Russia was rapidly devolving into a failed state.  Putin essentially fixed all that.  Russia resumed a path to greatness.

The decision to invade Ukraine was uniquely Putin's decision.  There were no visible calls within Russia for the invasion before Putin decided to do this.  But the people have learned to trust his judgment and accept his stated reasons.  So, they have broadly supported Putin in this action, and mostly still do. 

There certainly are strains in Russia from this decision.  But inflation, while high, is not extreme.  Unemployment is non-existent as a problem, outside of some rural places.  Wages are very good.
 Many have lost their lives or limbs from the war, but these were largely volunteers who were well-paid to take the risk of signing a contract and going. 

The oligarchs and the many who've prospered from corruption have taken lost a lot of wealth and income, but they have zero political sway with the population.  They'd love a path for Russia to return to the prior business as usual, but they certainly are in no position to foment a popular revolution.  They *could* attempt some kind of coup, but have little sway with the military, police, and governmental levers of power.   They have no good options but to suck it up.  I can't say I'm heartbroken by this.

Neglect of domestic infrastructure and services have certainly caused serious internal problems.  These are increasing.  But a population, recognizing a war is on, are largely willing to make sacrifices.

But don't take my word for any of this.  A remarkable set of perspectives on such matters can be had from, e.g., Vlad Vexler.  Agree or disagree with him, but he's plainly deeply thoughtful and informed on such socio-political-psychological-moral aspects of the current situation.  He's *not* a military analyst at all, and doesn't pretend to be.  He's more of a political philosopher.  See:

https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos

He's a Russian émigré, from well before the war, not someone who fled responsibilities.  He cares deeply about the Russian nation and its people.  Regardless of one's support or opposition to the war, he's worth listening to.

[Freegrass]

WTF is going on here? Hundreds of Hezbollah have been killed and injured from exploding pagers. How the hell did Israel do that? Are we walking around with bombs in our pocket? Most crazy story of the year.

Hundreds of Hezbollah Operatives’ Pagers Explode in Apparent Attack Across Lebanon

Many Hezbollah members were injured by the devices, which were part of a recent shipment

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hundreds-of-hezbollah-operatives-pagers-explode-in-apparent-attack-across-lebanon-cf31cad4?st=SVqTzU

BEIRUT—Pagers carried by hundreds of Hezbollah operatives exploded Tuesday, leaving many of them injured in an unprecedented event that struck across Lebanon.

The affected pagers were from a new shipment that the group received in recent days, people familiar with the matter said. A Hezbollah official said hundreds of fighters had such devices, speculating that malware may have caused the devices to heat up and explode. The official said some people felt the pagers heat up and disposed of them before they burst.

It couldn’t immediately be determined what caused the blasts, which were spread out across the country in several areas where Hezbollah has a heavy presence. The Israeli military didn’t immediately comment.

The numbers of casualties were rising too quickly to count, a Hezbollah official said.

Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad said he needed more time to determine the total number of casualties but assessed that the number of emergency room admissions in southern Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold, was extremely high.

The incident comes amid growing tension along Lebanon’s border with Israel. Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel soon after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel that set off the war in Gaza, and the two sides have exchanged fire daily since then, driving tens of thousands of people out of towns on both sides of the border and leaving hundreds of Hezbollah operatives dead.

[Richard Rathbone]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwyl9048gx8t

Thousands hurt by exploding pagers across Lebanon, health minister says

A former British Army munitions expert, who asked not to be named, told the BBC the devices would have likely been packed with between 10 to 20 grams each of military-grade high explosive, hidden inside a fake electronic component.

Hezbollah has said two of its fighters and an eight-year-old girl have been killed. The Lebanese health ministry say eight people have been killed and at least 2,750 injured.

Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon - Mojtaba Amani - is reportedly among the injured. Iranian State TV reports his wounds are "superficial" and that he is "conscious and in no danger".

[Rascal Dog]

But a population, recognizing a war is on, are largely willing to make sacrifices.

Is it a "war"? Or a "Special Military Operation"?

[John_the_Younger]

There wasn't a war in Korea (in the 1950's), it was a smo.

(An internet search suggests "smo" means "social media optimization," but Rascal Dog knows better, or maybe they're the same thing.)

[Neven]

Is it a "war"? Or a "Special Military Operation"?

Officially, there isn't a war, as no one has declared one. But I'm sure a majority of Russians see this conflict as a war that the West/NATO/USA is waging against Russia. And there are plenty of arguments to be made for that view, if only for the fact that it wouldn't be the first time, and the last time, it cost them 26 million lives.

[cognitivebias2]

Is it a "war"? Or a "Special Military Operation"?

Officially, there isn't a war, as no one has declared one. But I'm sure a majority of Russians see this conflict as a war that the West/NATO/USA is waging against Russia. And there are plenty of arguments to be made for that view, if only for the fact that it wouldn't be the first time, and the last time, it cost them 26 million lives.

Very much the same except all the massive ways that it bears no resemblance:

1) USSR invaded Poland in '39 in alliance with Germany 
2) Germany invaded USSR in mid '41, breaking the alliance.
3) USSR saw better options aligning w US/England by the end of '41. Afterwards the US provided massive support to USSR.

The 26M losses were against a common enemy to the US.  What was it you were saying?  Wouldn't be the first time Russians fought a war waged by the West/NATO/US? 

I wonder if the majority of Russian ever consider the amount of ordinance Russia is expending on the sovereign territory of Ukraine?  Do they feel any criminal liability for supporting these war crimes?

[Rascal Dog]

Is it a "war"? Or a "Special Military Operation"?

But I'm sure a majority of Russians see this conflict as a war that the West/NATO/USA is waging against Russia.

However, they can't say so.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/2/do-not-call-ukraine-invasion-a-war-russia-tells-media-schools

[Freegrass]

Holy guacamole. That's a big bang. Look at the shockwave creating those clouds on the ground in the first video.

This is what a tweet said.

The 107th Rocket & Artillery department arsenal before destruction claimed that each of the storage facilities could have held 240 tons of ammunition, that is potentially about 30 thousand tons of various ammunition.

https://x.com/androcaine/status/1836263717454893387

Putin's not going to be a happy camper today. That's a big blow to him. A turning point in the war?

[SteveMDFP]

Holy guacamole. That's a big bang. Look at the shockwave creating those clouds on the ground in the first video.

This is what a tweet said.

The 107th Rocket & Artillery department arsenal before destruction claimed that each of the storage facilities could have held 240 tons of ammunition, that is potentially about 30 thousand tons of various ammunition.

https://x.com/androcaine/status/1836263717454893387

Putin's not going to be a happy camper today. That's a big blow to him. A turning point in the war?

Operator Starsky discusses this, and describes some of the contents of that arsenal (unconfirmed):
https://youtu.be/TbHH4algXgg?si=A3F0pEKsM16XMKps

This site was well-documented prior to the invasion.  Reuters has published on it.  It was apparently very well-designed to protect munitions.  A drone would not be expected to destroy it.

My own suspicion is that this is where the Iranian ballistic missiles were sent to.  I imagine US intelligence tracked that shipment carefully, and worked with AFU to target it, perhaps while the shipment was just outside the facility temporarily, unprotected.  We know the shipment was tracked on its transit through the Caspian Sea.  The rest here is just my guess.

Turning point?  Not by itself.  But a significant blow to Putin's aims.  He's achieved pyrrhic victory after pyrrhic victory.  The resolution won't be on the battlefields, it will be via exhaustion, just as WWI ended.

[Freegrass]

I imagine US intelligence tracked that shipment carefully, and worked with AFU to target it.

Why do you “imagine”? Why would anyone doubt that US intelligence is winning this war? US intelligence knows every move the Russians make. They know where every shipment of rockets go.
Welcome to the age of satellites, AI, and exploding pagers!

Out of necessity, Ukraine adapted to the lack of support from the west at the start of this conflict. So they made their own drones. Nobody expected Ukraine could beat Russia. But Russia has proven itself to be a hot air balloon. They claimed to have the world's second-strongest military in the world. But now everyone can see that this was a lie. There are even rumors that the fissile materials in their nuclear weapons have passed their due date. They probably won't explode anymore.

Putin has turned Russia into the laughingstock of the world. Their military is weak, and incompetent.

China is watching!!!

Siberia wants independence. Because all they're good for is cannon feed.
And China wants their historical lands back in the east. Sound familiar?

Russia has an economy the size of Italy. All Putin has left, is his nuclear arsenal. But now there are doubts that his bombs would even explode. Let's hope nobody will test it out. But I'm sure they will all be shot down before they leave Russia.

Corruption is killing Russia. Those bunkers were supposed to withstand a nuclear blast. Yet, all it took to blow them up was a homemade Ukrainian drone.

Their stocks were stacked outside the bunkers. How incompetent are these people?

Russia is a joke. And America has all the intelligence about troop and munition movements.

I even think America is helping Ukraine to build their own weapons/bombs. That way, NATO can't be blamed.

This war should have been over in 3 days.
😂😂😂😂😂😂

Slava Ukraini!!!
FUCK PUTIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And everyone who defends him.

[Freegrass]

For once, I agree with Altai, on this point.  One should not underestimate the deep well of respect, admiration, and appreciation that the Russian people have for Putin.

Are you fucking serious? Protestors are sent to Siberia. Russians are scared to speak their mind.

[Freegrass]

Freegrass, if you start writing posts like that, we'll call you the Ukrainian Zenith.

I read the Forum decorum thread today.
People who should be sanctioned are those who resort to personal attacks.
That was/is the rule on the Investors Hub Community.
No personal attacks. It doesn't ad anything to the discussion but rage.
STICK TO THE TOPIC!!!
Or fuck off!

[Rodius]

Freegrass, if you start writing posts like that, we'll call you the Ukrainian Zenith.

No personal attacks. It doesn't ad anything to the discussion but rage.
STICK TO THE TOPIC!!!
Or fuck off!

Stick to the topic?
No personal attacks?

[KiwiGriff]

Russian official explaining UAVs shot down by Russian air defense, debris started a fire , all is under control.
You can here ammo cooking off in the background.

[zenith]

bwahaha you herd animals are turning on each other. such pathetic scumbags. we came very close to the end of all things saturday past, not that you would have noticed because you're herd animals moo moo mooing along. go along to get along.

INTERVIEW: Seventy-two minutes to end the world


we can expect a full blown war between israel and hezbollah any minute now. israel will lose but they, like the west, only know military escalation. fuck diplomacy.

unipolar world order, one world trade centre, non-binary sexuality, transhumanism and the singularity. full spectrum dominance baby. USA#1

 INTERVIEW: ‘I’m terrified for what comes next.’ Chris Hedges

[Rodius]

Oh well, there goes the conversation of this thread. It was good while it lasted.