Author Topic: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll (Read 7757 times)

grixm · « **on:** April 17, 2021, 10:25:39 AM »

When will it be?

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

Last year: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3061.msg262618.html

grixm · « **Reply #1 on:** April 17, 2021, 10:33:04 AM »

My guess is May 6th, 18:00

gerontocrat · « **Reply #2 on:** April 17, 2021, 10:37:36 AM »

In the Yukon for the next 10 days GFS says high pressure will be in charge, so I also say
- it is going to be dry,
- it is going to be sunny,
- average temperatures a bit above avaerge,

But really cold nights and warm(ish) sunny days. So a bit earlier than last year. April 30th.

The Walrus · « **Reply #3 on:** April 17, 2021, 01:26:54 PM »

The recent month-long cold spell has created very thick ice on the river. I suspect it will be later this year. May 14.

karl dubhe2 · « **Reply #4 on:** April 17, 2021, 04:07:09 PM »

Without doubt, I'll be wrong this time.

Before April 25.

be cause · « **Reply #5 on:** April 17, 2021, 04:12:14 PM »

05.05.2020 .. ? .

Stephan · « **Reply #6 on:** April 17, 2021, 09:42:10 PM »

I chose the bin May 1-May 5. But this is a pure guess.

oren · « **Reply #7 on:** April 17, 2021, 10:14:34 PM »

Same.

pearscot · « **Reply #8 on:** April 19, 2021, 09:08:50 PM »

I'm guessing May 9th this year (I put in the 5/6-5/10)! Last year I guessed the 5th, but think it will be a little bit later. Always an interesting event to watch unfold.

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #9 on:** April 21, 2021, 03:30:26 AM »

I placed my first bet for today, which let's you know how much I know...

The Walrus · « **Reply #10 on:** April 21, 2021, 02:47:25 PM »

Quote from: Sebastian Jones on April 21, 2021, 03:30:26 AM

I placed my first bet for today, which let's you know how much I know...

Unless that is the new "white water." lol

pearscot · « **Reply #11 on:** April 21, 2021, 10:19:29 PM »

the drama, the hype, and the lore of this event is hard to handle!!!!

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #12 on:** April 22, 2021, 03:47:00 AM »

Colder today- we've been getting meteorological whiplash, bouncing from record cold to record warmth and now back below seasonal norms. I'm so confused....

The Walrus · « **Reply #13 on:** April 22, 2021, 01:22:24 PM »

Spring tends to have that effect. When rapidly heated air from the south confronts the frozen tundra of the north, wild temperature (and weather) swings can occur. It takes a lot of heat to melt all that snow and ice, and when the sun stops shining and the southerly winds stop blowing, the heat dissipates rapidly.

grixm · « **Reply #14 on:** April 23, 2021, 02:21:28 PM »

Poll is now closed and results visible (but you can still make a precise guess in a comment)

be cause · « **Reply #15 on:** April 23, 2021, 03:11:03 PM »

Damn .. I never even noticed the poll .. just made my prediction and buggered off .. b.c.

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #16 on:** April 24, 2021, 02:20:17 AM »

Yukon residents who buy the winning ice pool ticket can win thousands of Can$!
I reckon the biggest bin on this poll will capture breakup.
The first thrush returned today....

gerontocrat · « **Reply #17 on:** April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM »

I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

Note that at 7.30 pm AKDT time on the 30th April it will be 4.30 am British Summer Time, or 3.30 am Greenwich Mean Time (UTC if you wish) of the 1st May.

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know

grixm · « **Reply #18 on:** April 27, 2021, 01:25:31 PM »

Quote from: gerontocrat on April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know

The website will report the breakup time in their local time, so I guess that's the easiest.

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #19 on:** April 28, 2021, 05:51:06 AM »

Quote from: grixm on April 27, 2021, 01:25:31 PM

Quote from: gerontocrat on April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM

So whose clock are we using for this poll? I want to know

The website will report the breakup time in their local time, so I guess that's the easiest.

The clock belongs to the local chapter of the Imperial Order of Daughters of the Empire (!).
It is an ordinary electric analog clock.
It is attached to the side of the First Nations Cultural Centre, which is conveniently located on the river bank.
A cable is stretched from a post on the river to the clock.
When the ice moves, a circuit is broken when the cable is pulled out of the clock.
The clock stops.
It works really well, except in 2019 when the ice under the tripod rotted out several days before the main river moved.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #20 on:** May 01, 2021, 01:56:58 PM »

Quote from: gerontocrat on April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM

I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

grixm · « **Reply #21 on:** May 01, 2021, 02:00:09 PM »

Quote from: gerontocrat on May 01, 2021, 01:56:58 PM

Quote from: gerontocrat on April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

It hasn't broken up yet, if that's what you meant

When it breaks up, the date will be shown here. The date below the photo is the date the photo was taken.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #22 on:** May 01, 2021, 03:20:05 PM »

Quote from: grixm on May 01, 2021, 02:00:09 PM

Quote from: gerontocrat on May 01, 2021, 01:56:58 PM
Quote from: gerontocrat on April 27, 2021, 10:15:38 AM
I said 30th April - to be precise I meant to say 7.30 pm AKDT time.

So who's a clever boy then?

emojis for smirk, arrogance, self-satisfaction etc to be added.

https://yukonriverbreakup.com/

It hasn't broken up yet, if that's what you meant

When it breaks up, the date will be shown here. The date below the photo is the date the photo was taken.

Pride goes before a fall.

"But the tripod has gone. the game is over. I won the game - even if by a technicality?"
- he begged as he wept

grixm · « **Reply #23 on:** May 01, 2021, 03:47:02 PM »

I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #24 on:** May 02, 2021, 02:40:28 AM »

Quote from: grixm on May 01, 2021, 03:47:02 PM

I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website

Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

oren · « **Reply #25 on:** May 02, 2021, 08:42:00 AM »

Just stress in the first post that there two separate bets, the Yukon and the Tanana, and this thread is about the Yukon. (Hopefully I am not mistaken).

grixm · « **Reply #26 on:** May 02, 2021, 08:47:31 AM »

Quote from: Sebastian Jones on May 02, 2021, 02:40:28 AM

Quote from: grixm on May 01, 2021, 03:47:02 PM
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website
Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

I think that would help, yes. And/or maybe prefix the other date with "Photo taken on: " something like that.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #27 on:** May 02, 2021, 09:23:56 AM »

Quote from: grixm on May 02, 2021, 08:47:31 AM

Quote from: Sebastian Jones on May 02, 2021, 02:40:28 AM
Quote from: grixm on May 01, 2021, 03:47:02 PM
I remember several similar misunderstandings last year. It's not the most intuitive website
Huh. That's a good point. I had never thought of that.
If the heading was changed from:
"Official 2021 breakup: ..."
To:
"Official 2021 breakup: TBA"
Would that help?
Any other suggestions?

I think that would help, yes. And/or maybe prefix the other date with "Photo taken on: " something like that.

I am still weeping. It's too late for helpful suggestions.

kassy · « **Reply #28 on:** May 02, 2021, 11:55:00 PM »

Official 2021 breakup: TBA or not yet would both help. Got me last year.

If you want to go fancy add a current temp/ forecasted temp (should be free from your national meteorology?). This would not really help but it just looks nice plus it is an easy way to check at the end of the season.

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #29 on:** May 03, 2021, 02:41:55 AM »

Quote from: kassy on May 02, 2021, 11:55:00 PM

Official 2021 breakup: TBA or not yet would both help. Got me last year.

If you want to go fancy add a current temp/ forecasted temp (should be free from your national meteorology?). This would not really help but it just looks nice plus it is an easy way to check at the end of the season.

Thanks for the feedback folks, I'll try to get the fixes done before the river goes out and nobody cares any more!
I'm thinking the river will go within 48hours...

be cause · « **Reply #30 on:** May 03, 2021, 10:37:57 AM »

.. but that would be a day too soon!

grixm · « **Reply #31 on:** May 03, 2021, 10:47:00 AM »

It looks like it has collapsed upstream but still not downstream by the tripod.

kassy · « **Reply #32 on:** May 03, 2021, 09:50:26 PM »

By next year is fine too.

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #33 on:** May 04, 2021, 01:59:53 AM »

Gotta be tomorrow...for sure right?
At 17:30

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #34 on:** May 04, 2021, 09:03:10 PM »

Water is flowing over the ice to within 50m of the tripod, the front area of broken ice floes is steadily advancing; breakup shall be today, May 4th. This image from 11:30 UTC 7
I have a bet in for 17:30....

grixm · « **Reply #35 on:** May 05, 2021, 02:51:26 PM »

Still no? One more day and I will be correct. Go Go Go!

icy voyeur2 · « **Reply #36 on:** May 06, 2021, 10:22:04 PM »

Quote from: grixm on May 05, 2021, 02:51:26 PM

Still no? One more day and I will be correct. Go Go Go!

looks like it's moving http://dawson.meteomac.com/

crandles · « **Reply #37 on:** May 07, 2021, 02:38:59 AM »

Official 2021 breakup: May 6 @ 10:29

Sebastian Jones · « **Reply #38 on:** May 07, 2021, 07:37:45 AM »

As ever, breakup is a topic of intense interest to locals. As ever, some get just a little too close up of a view.

News:

Poll

When will the yukon river break up at Dawson city?

Author Topic: 2021 Yukon river breakup poll (Read 7757 times)