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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #100 on: March 10, 2013, 08:06:25 PM »
Lodger,

Thanks for the closeup!

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #101 on: March 10, 2013, 08:11:28 PM »
Last year on the 'other side', I opined about the lack of deployable, realtime observation assets for under-water/under-ice data collection of seawater temperature & salinity. I stated if I had $8 Million to spend, I buy as many autonomous sea skimmer submersibles that could be helicopter deployed during events like this one.

I'd love to know what the heat flux under-ice is between Nares strait and the Central Arctic Basin near the MYI breakup area. How thin and weak is the sea ice. How much heat is attacking it from below? How strong are the surface winds? Only 2 of these 3 questions can be answered by satellites.

The fracturing in the MYI appears slightly different in character compared to the Beaufort breakup. In the CAA region, ice floes seem to be smaller overall, and with a greater ration of length to width. I hope CryoSat-2 is getting all this, as it should be right in the middle of their Spring campaign. Too bad NASA Icebridge hasn't started yet, they may miss the show.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2013, 10:01:40 PM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

DungeonMaster

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #102 on: March 10, 2013, 09:14:04 PM »
Wow, I hadn't seen the latest images. It looks rather like an old elephant skin than like a healthy arctic. All explorers have been wise to cancel their plans skiing to the Pole - it would have turned into a swimming contest.
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.
Read again  Maslowski paper : why Arctic could melt in 2016 +/- 3Y !

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #103 on: March 10, 2013, 09:47:46 PM »
While we have been paying attention to the Canadian Arctic, I have been waiting to see the Russian side. While we do not have all of it, the image shows the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas and into the Bering Strait.

The fracturing from Russia to Wrangel lsland and along the coast is significant. Pardon the pixelation, but I had to push the image.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #104 on: March 11, 2013, 12:30:07 AM »
With the Spring tide coming tomorrow, I wonder what will happen to the fast ice on the North shore of the CAA.

Certainly the winds yesterday, March 9, 2013 had a devastating effect: (wind vector map courtesy IJIS/JMA)
Cheers!
Lodger

DaddyBFree

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #105 on: March 11, 2013, 02:00:04 AM »
Wow! Thanks A4R and Lodger (et al.) for documenting/highlighting the current/ongoing fracturing so well.  As has been pointed out, it is more of an indicator than a cause of the current situation, similarly to the cyclone last summer; however, it still amazes me to see what is supposed to be the thickest, oldest MYI fracturing within the (last remaining?) safe(r) haven regions.

Vergent

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #106 on: March 11, 2013, 02:57:33 AM »
Last year on the 'other side', I opined about the lack of deployable, realtime observation assets for under-water/under-ice data collection of seawater temperature & salinity. I stated if I had $8 Million to spend, I buy as many autonomous sea skimmer submersibles that could be helicopter deployed during events like this one.

I'd love to know what the heat flux under-ice is between Nares strait and the Central Arctic Basin near the MYI breakup area. How thin and weak is the sea ice. How much heat is attacking it from below? How strong are the surface winds? Only 2 of these 3 questions can be answered by satellites.

The fracturing in the MYI appears slightly different in character compared to the Beaufort breakup. In the CAA region, ice floes seem to be smaller overall, and with a greater ration of length to width. I hope CryoSat-2 is getting all this, as it should be right in the middle of their Spring campaign. Too bad NASA Icebridge hasn't started yet, they may miss the show.

Lodger.

Teathered profiler data can be gotten here:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781



Verg
« Last Edit: March 11, 2013, 03:35:35 AM by Vergent »

Artful Dodger

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #107 on: March 11, 2013, 03:41:10 AM »
Loger.<sic>

Teathered profiler data can be gotten here:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781

Verg
Thanks, Verg

I'm aware of the ITP data.

I just think we could do better with Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). Plus needing a place to sink $8M and all...  ;D

More Programs like these:
About SIPEX-2
Marine Autonomous and Robotic Systems (MARS)
« Last Edit: March 11, 2013, 04:04:29 AM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #108 on: March 11, 2013, 06:54:46 AM »
One last view of the Russian fracturing, which also seems to be expanding.

werther

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #109 on: March 11, 2013, 02:35:18 PM »
A provisoric history “à l’ après-midi d’un faune” in the Arctic…
(music by Debussy).

Triggered by A-Team I’ve been looking back on the feature he’s dubbed ‘Goat’s head’ and stumbled on the detail above, 16 August ’12, where clouds seem to adapt to the satyric frame the remnant ice was clutched into…

I think it is retraceable to the +5 year old arm of floes into the ESAS, that stands out in deep blue on my own comparison map from fall ’11.

This frame is about a week before the structure was frozen in again last September. The southwest side was an ancre-ground for ‘Polarstern’ then, where it provided one of the few solid floes for the crew to carry out their experiments.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #110 on: March 11, 2013, 03:19:04 PM »
Thanks Werther, that is helpful. We will see what the coming months bring.

TerryM

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #111 on: March 11, 2013, 04:41:14 PM »
IIRC the Brits are planning a submarine excursion into Nares Strait later this year. Might not be the
sea skimmers the Lodger wished for, but could answer some of his questions.

Andreas Muenchow was hoping to get a berth & if he does we'll almost certainly get regular updates from his site!

Terry

Dave C

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #112 on: March 12, 2013, 06:18:05 PM »
I am updating my prediction made in post 64.  We have had record volume gain through this date. The cracks have another month to refreeze and possibly add even more volume than they have so far. If we tie the record for volume loss this summer then the expected minimum for 2013 would be about 3.05 km3.

While high, I don't think the melt will be that high. My current prediction is for volume minimum in 2013 to be exactly the same as last year- 3.26.

johnm33

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #113 on: March 21, 2013, 09:45:06 PM »
Kejad Better late than never i hope.
 Yes as I recall at one point there were 12 bands on the companion anomolies page to the pic Lodger posted, implying 24deg, too much for insolation or any other cause, except for kinetic energy
https://pangea.stanford.edu/courses/EESS146Bweb/Lecture%2015.pdf
http://www.o3d.org/abracco/pio2011.pdf
are a couple of places to check for a start but you'll find any number by googling "kinetic energy greenland". Which address a similar anomoly on the west coast of greenland. Although i haven't found anything specifically for the arctic.
 Insofar as i understand it the kinetic energy, which i believe comes in on the back of tidal flows from the pacific, forms votices which act as centrifuges which, apart from the thermal energy that generates, draws up heat from the warmer  AW strata below, and sheds it in front of the waves so that it sort of surfs towards the shore and thus concentrates. I based my Jan 21 comment on 2013 open thread 1#, in another place on my incomplete understanding, 
"I'm expecting the same kind of warming we saw in Mackenzie Bay to show up to the north of greenland before the solstice, and possibly in april, which will disconnect the ice from the coast, and then the ice will rotate clockwise and disappear via Fram."
and having just read this whole thread, feel fairly confident that
this has been an increasingly potent factor in the demise of the ice since 2007, largely melting it out from the bottom.

johnm33

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #114 on: March 22, 2013, 11:32:12 AM »
Don't know how to make this date specific, but this shows a similar anomoly, if over a lower temp range for the 21 mar.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif

deep octopus

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #115 on: March 22, 2013, 04:31:04 PM »
John,

NOAA has a page which allows you to view temperature anomalies (as well as other atmospheric and sea surface variables) with specific time ranges from 1948 to present day (usually up to two days prior to the present day.) I use it very frequently. Hope this helps.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

johnm33

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #116 on: March 22, 2013, 04:35:00 PM »
Deep Octopus Thanks you.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #117 on: March 22, 2013, 09:12:58 PM »
Monthly Seasonal Composites here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Monthly Mean Timeseries here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

This data is what is commonly called NCEP/NCAR.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #118 on: June 18, 2013, 07:10:48 AM »
The British MET is going to study why the UK weather has been so weird. It has been some of the coldest and wetest weather they've had the last two years. Many of us are familiar with some of the drivers that will be discussed.

Here is the BBC link:

Met Office experts meet to analyse 'unusual' weather patterns

By Matt McGrath, Environment correspondent, BBC News
17 June 2013 Last updated at 20:41 ET

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22937375

Vergent

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #119 on: July 12, 2013, 02:56:16 PM »
Yesterday, it rained in LA. Not a downpour a few hundredths. But this was only the third time that rain was recorded on that date.

Vergent

greylib

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #120 on: July 19, 2013, 01:17:07 PM »
For me, the biggest oddity with the UK weather is that it's becoming far too settled.

We're a nation who almost pride ourselves  on having all four seasons in one week - sometimes in the space of a single afternoon. For the last couple of years, though, the weather has remained the same for weeks and months at a time. Last year, for instance: cold, dry winter; mild very dry spring (drought warning); then rain from the end of April onwards, leading into another cold winter.

These days our weather forecasters can get a 95% accuracy rating simply by saying "tomorrow same as today". Spookily odd!

Anne

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #121 on: July 19, 2013, 01:26:58 PM »
Hello, greylib. I agree. The definition of English summer used to be "three fine days and a thunderstorm".

If you've been lurking a while you have probably already discovered other threads relevant to UK weather in the Consequences section, including:
UK Met Office Summit on unusual weather patterns in the UK
and
Weird Weather, which has a global scope.
Interesting times.

pikaia

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #122 on: July 19, 2013, 01:27:22 PM »
For me, the biggest oddity with the UK weather is that it's becoming far too settled.
That is because of the stalling of the jet stream. The movement of its path from West to East is slowing down, and so is the strength of the stream itself, as a result of the warmer Arctic. This reduces the temperature difference between poles and equator which drives the weather circulation, making everything more sluggish.

greylib

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #123 on: July 19, 2013, 02:13:00 PM »
If you've been lurking a while you have probably already discovered other threads ...
Interesting times.
Yes, I've seen those threads, and more. I've been lurking here almost since Day 1. I'm here to learn, not to talk - I don't have the expertise to contribute much, but I'm hooked on the expertise shown here.

Apart from giving Neven some money, all I can do is watch in fascinated horror as the human race saws through the branch it's sitting on.  :'(

jdallen

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #124 on: January 13, 2014, 08:45:53 AM »
Oddity...

Am I mistaken, but is the High pressure over the Atlantic just west of the Canaries forcing the jet stream into an "S" curve?  The earth.nullschool.net 250mb image is rather dramatic (1/14/2014).

Some of the static maps not much less so.  At the least, it appears on one leg, the stream is actually trending slightly South*West*.

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm
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jdallen

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #125 on: January 13, 2014, 08:05:55 PM »
Here's the link from the California Weather Service I was missing last night (the site was down).  If you look on the right of the image, over the mid-Atlantic, you will see the reversing "S" curved jet stream I was talking about.  Image is from Jan 11/12.
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TerryM

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #126 on: June 29, 2014, 11:20:12 PM »
I doubt that it's a record, but it does seem odd that temperatures at Herschel Island have been above freezing since June 16th. Today the only 24 hour high above 0 C is at Isachsen and Mould Bay have hovered between a high of 25 C and a low of 14 C. Even Eureka is showing 11 C.


The oddity is that we're showing ice growth under these conditions.


Temperatures around Hudson Bay are extreem also. The 33.4 C at Fort Severn might seem to be a glitch in the sensor if it wasn't for the 33.1 recorded at Peawanuck and the 32.6 from Moosonee At James Bay. For our American friends the above temperatures are all in excess of 90 F, not what is expected from polar bear country.


At Churchill:
2014 - 6/28 30.7 C
2013 - 6/23 27.9 C
2012 - 6/25 25.0 C


In 2012 high island temperatures in the CAA were apparently responsible for melting large quantities on MYI in the channels. I don't think a repeat is out of the question.


http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en


Terry

jdallen

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #127 on: June 29, 2014, 11:48:08 PM »
I doubt that it's a record, ...
<snippage>
The oddity is that we're showing ice growth under these conditions.
<snippage>
For our American friends the above temperatures are all in excess of 90 F, not what is expected from polar bear country.
<snippage>
In 2012 high island temperatures in the CAA were apparently responsible for melting large quantities on MYI in the channels. I don't think a repeat is out of the question.
I think you'd find may of your American friends speak fluent "C" and similar metric dialects ;)

High temperatures indeed.  It does not bode well for the tundra and wildlife.  I would not be surprised to hear reports of Polar bears dying from heat stroke.  The impact on ice of the high shore temperatures is less determinate, but undeniably negative.

It suggests a very rapid exit for remaining ice in the Hudson and Baffin bays.  If things continue even modestly warm, I agree that the thick ice in the CAA channels will vanish as well.

That heat extends all the way west past Amundsen sound along the Beaufort, though at somewhat reduced levels.  The near term shows temperatures rising into the mid-20's at numerous locations on the shore.

Ice growth? Absent of import?  Nah, didn't happen; sensors fooled by something.
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jdallen

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #128 on: June 29, 2014, 11:57:22 PM »
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:



It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.
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Anne

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #129 on: June 30, 2014, 12:07:14 AM »
Nice catch. 

Right now someone is going to come along and explain it, I hope. 

Shared Humanity

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #130 on: June 30, 2014, 03:57:38 AM »
Nice catch. 

Right now someone is going to come along and explain it, I hope.

I'll give it a shot. We all know that North America had a brutally cold winter. So cold, we would have expected the Archipelago to freeze really well. If you look at this hole, it looks as if we are looking at floes of solid MYI surrounded by open water. How could the FYI around these flows have melted so quickly? Why are we not seeing small rubble ice around these larger floes? I believe we may be witnessing a new kind of phenomena. The snow across the upper Midwest was early, deep and persistent. Once it fell, it stayed on the ground. With so much open water in the Arctic in the Fall, could we be seeing excessive early snowfalls that serve to insulate the seas and newly formed FYI from the cold of the winter? Could this prevent the new FYI from thickening and wouldn't this thin FYI then melt quickly once the snow cover is gone? I theorized about this on another thread. Are there any records of snow fall depths in the CAA?

TerryM

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #131 on: June 30, 2014, 04:19:59 AM »
Someone, possibly Artful Dodger posted a link a few years back on snow cover in the CAA. The results were that snow insulated the ice, then provided plenty of fresh water for melt ponds. The deeper the snow the thinner the FYI.


Terry

greatdying2

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #132 on: June 30, 2014, 04:52:31 AM »
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:



It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.

You can see the beginnings of this hole on the first day it sees the light (Feb. 23) on Earthview. Perhaps this suggests a different mechanism than snow melt?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bruce

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #133 on: June 30, 2014, 06:33:07 AM »
It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.
It was there last year and 2012, too. The ones nearby, as well. Don't know about earlier years.

There's something about that spot. Maybe a geothermal vent? Maybe a spot where currents and ocean floor topography conspire to drive an upwelling of warm, deeper water? An underwater base for space aliens?

Wipneus

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #134 on: June 30, 2014, 08:56:41 AM »
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:

It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.

It was there in 2013 as well:

jdallen

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #135 on: June 30, 2014, 09:33:57 AM »
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werther

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #136 on: June 30, 2014, 12:24:11 PM »
On the polynia's... I remember them being subject of interest some time ago on Neven's blog.
One of them has the ominous name "Hell Gate".
Here's an overview of these regular polynia's:



According to some scientific studies (for example on the birdlife in and near these spots) they are mainly created by tidal currents in the channels between Norwegian Bay and the Baffin Bay system.

Pmt111500

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #137 on: July 03, 2014, 06:22:23 PM »
odd-looking clouds over Canada side of CAB yesterday. What the heck is going on, that micro-cyclone persisting for so long and now this. Looks totally disorganised, what ever else that is.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2014, 06:27:28 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

pikaia

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #138 on: July 18, 2014, 11:48:34 AM »
The sunspot number for July 17 was zero. We are at the maximum of the present solar cycle but the sun is now completely spotless.

 This cycle has been much lower than recent cycles, and there are reasons to suspect that the next cycle  will be absent, resulting in another Maunder Minimum, when the solar cycle shut down for several decades.

Paradoxically, the sun is dimmer when there are fewer sunspots. although this would do little to slow down global warming, but the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #139 on: July 18, 2014, 01:01:42 PM »
Quote
Paradoxically, the sun is dimmer when there are fewer sunspots. although this would do little to slow down global warming, but the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

Sadly, no. There is nothing in the normal armoury of climate changes that can produce an ice age for at least a couple of thousand years, potentially ever.  Although the sun will be a tad weaker during the minimums it is slowly getting brighter. The effects of AGW frankly dwarf any direct changes in solar input.

crandles

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #140 on: July 18, 2014, 01:22:16 PM »
the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

We will have measurement of solar output. We can run models with actual solar output and with normal solar levels and compare to give an idea of the effects of the solar minimum.

Similarly we can compare models with the enhanced GHG levels against normal levels.

This will give the broad picture of the scale of the effects at a global level.

Unfortunately at decadal predictions or for finer than regional scale, it seems the models are just not good enough to be trusted:
http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/can-we-trust-climate-models.html

(Feel free to discuss further? should I open a separate thread?)

pikaia

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #141 on: July 18, 2014, 02:30:41 PM »
Sadly, no. There is nothing in the normal armoury of climate changes that can produce an ice age for at least a couple of thousand years, potentially ever.  Although the sun will be a tad weaker during the minimums it is slowly getting brighter. The effects of AGW frankly dwarf any direct changes in solar input.

It is not as simple as that. According to Wiki,
"... A causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters has recently been made using data from the NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment which shows that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought. In 2011 an article was published in the Nature Geoscience journal that could tie low solar activity to mild winters in some places (southern Europe and Canada) and colder winters in others (northern Europe and the United States)"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

As there were milder winters in some places during the so-called "Little Ice Age", the term is a bad one, imo, as the cooling was local rather than global. Canada and Southern Europe would have milder winters if it is repeated.

S.Pansa

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #142 on: July 18, 2014, 03:41:28 PM »
Hi, longtime lurker here.


There are quite a few papers out there, which did look into this thoroughly. SkS has a nice summary here (http://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-dent-AGW.html).

They all come more or less to the same conclusion: even a grand minimum like a maunder minimum will have little influence on AGW, not under a moderate emission pathway like RCP 4.5 (which we have left behind for good (bad) a few years ago), and even less so under BAU.

The following pic is from a Feulner & Rahmstorf paper from 2010 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=21)

Edit: finally I have found out how to attach a picture: The graphic is from Meehl 2013, free PDF here (www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/jma/meehl_grand_solar_2013.pdf), the second one the solar irradiance during the minimum.


Cheers

S. Pansa
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 04:00:53 PM by S.Pansa »

DavidR

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #143 on: July 19, 2014, 09:35:39 AM »
Solar minimums are very useful for tracking global warming because they are a constant  value for a variable input.  If you  plot the temperature change at each solar minimum then you  can have no doubt that global  warming is occurring.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Nick_Naylor

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #144 on: July 19, 2014, 02:34:56 PM »
If you  plot the temperature change at each solar minimum then you  can have no doubt that global  warming is occurring.

True, but it is honestly hard to have any doubt anyway without a predisposition to disbelief.  Firm skeptics will no doubt exploit any slowdown in the temperature record as "evidence" supporting their beliefs, no matter how temporary or how we'll explained it might be. Explaining it will be an extra hurdle in communicating what we know and how we know it.

DavidR

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #145 on: July 20, 2014, 03:25:55 PM »
Nick,
totally  agree!. When the Arctic summer Ice disappears and temperatures are 2 degrees above average contrarians will  still  be claiming that it is just 'natural variation'.  Mapping the temperature rise based on the solar minimum merely  has the efficacy of removing the argument that the temperature rise is a consequence of solar maxima. 

No  evidence will convince the average contrarian. Thankfully the policy  here is simply to  ignore the supremely  ignorant  and discuss the evidence.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #146 on: August 07, 2014, 10:16:09 PM »
S Pansa, David R,

I was a sceptic about AGW, at the end I was in doubt because I suspected a role for the sun, then I read the following paper. It crushed my scepticism.

It's come to mind because actually we've already had something similar to a Maunder Minimum, during the period of AGW, and AGW continued throughout that period.

Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming, Wild et al 2007.
http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/wild/2006GL028031.pdf
Quote
...Downward thermal radiation measured at 12 worldwide distributed sites from BSRN shows on average an increase of 0.26 Wm2 per year since the beginning of the measurements in 1992, in line with our expectations from greenhouse theory and models...


To estimate the integrated (overall) effect of variations in surface solar radiation over the past 40 years, we analysed the latest update of GEBA. In the majority of the surface solar radiation records from GEBA we find that, despite the widespread trend reversal from dimming to brightening, the amount of solar radiation at the surface has not reached the 1960 level.

Despite the fact that surface insolation at the turn of the millennium is rather lower than in the 1960s, land surface temperatures have increased by 0.8C over this period (Figure 1). This suggests that the net effect of surface solar forcing over the past decades cannot be the principal driver behind the overall temperature increase, since over the past 40 years, cooling from solar dimming still outweighs warming from solar brightening. Rather, the overall temperature increase since the 1960s can be attributed to greenhouse forcing as also evident in the BSRN data outlined above.

Thus, speculations that solar brightening rather than the greenhouse effect could have been the main cause of the overall global warming over the past decades appear unfounded.

In other words it doesn't matter whether people think the sun getting stronger could have caused GW, or whether changes in clouds due to changing cosmic ray flux could have caused GW (Svensmark). These idle speculations are wrong because at the surface insolation was less at the start of the 1990s than in the 1960s, yet over that period the planet warmed.

*The reduction of surface insolation between the 1960s and 1990s was of the order of a few watts/m^2, comparable to that in the Maunder Minimum (Wild 2009, Global dimming and brightening: A review).

Michael Hauber

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #147 on: August 19, 2014, 05:32:49 AM »
There is a small area just north of Svalbaard which is currently covered in ice, but was open water at sea ice maximum in March.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

DavidR

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #148 on: August 19, 2014, 11:02:22 AM »
The ice around Svarlbaard has being consistently  moving south from the CAB for most of the summer at around 20 knots / day.  The ice here is drift  from the CAB not new ice.
This wind pattern appears to  occur every  few years. 
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viddaloo

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #149 on: August 23, 2014, 04:31:14 PM »
I first thought it was a bug in my script:

While 2012 generally has the biggest melt ever, a meltdown of 84.3% of its April max volume, it turns out that 2010 actually holds the record for biggest melt in terms of net volume: 19693 km³.

That’s just 1 km³ more than 2012. So 1 more km³, but only 81.2% volume loss, as 2010’s Winter maximum was at 24275 (compared to 2012 at 23365).

2010 and 2012 also had the same biggest melt day: Day 167 (June 16th), of 329 and 342 km³, respectively. By comparison, 2014 had a much later BMD, Day 181 (June 30th), and a much smaller maximum loss, 274 km³.

So the 2 biggest melters are:
19693 down to 4582 km³ (2010)
19692 down to 3673 km³ (2012)

Bronze goes to 2011 with a fairly good melt of 18375 km³ to 4302 km³ (81.0%). A bronze in melt volume, but silver in September minimum.
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