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viddaloo

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #150 on: August 31, 2014, 12:40:34 AM »
Record low July melt in 2014: Continuing a strong trend of acceleratingly decreased July melt, 2014 saw only 5067 km³ melt away during the warmest Summer month. This is the lowest July melt ever in the 1979–2014 PIOMAS data series for Arctic sea ice volume. Surprisingly, perhaps, the #2 lowest ever July melt was in 2012, at 5619 km³. Something is clearly stopping sea ice from melting in the warmest of the Summer months, when even the biggest meltdown year in modern history sees a (then) record low July melt.

Smoke from forest fires raging before Summer Solstice?

Explore the mystery further in this thread.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #151 on: August 31, 2014, 02:36:05 PM »
A cloudier Arctic in the summer which reflects more of the sun's energy back into space?

crandles

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #152 on: August 31, 2014, 03:38:18 PM »
I think the trend is to do with May and June melting out more so July is left with a harder task to melt as much volume.

The deviation from trend in 2014 does not seem very surprising to me. Area was relatively high compared to Extent. This meant there were relatively few holes in the pack where the albedo effect can have most effect in trapping heat which will find its way into melting ice.

(I was trying to tell DavidR that this would mean we would have a low volume melt year but he didn't seem to want to hear this.)

There could be other effects of course.

viddaloo

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #153 on: September 04, 2014, 02:05:39 AM »
Record low July melt in 2014

Record low combined July–August melt in 2014: Continuing a strong trend of acceleratingly decreased July–August melt, 2014 saw only 7253 km³ melt away during the warmest Summer months. This is the lowest July–August melt ever in the 1979–2014 PIOMAS data series for Arctic sea ice volume. Surprisingly, perhaps, the #3 lowest ever July–August melt was in 2012, at 8146 km³. Something is clearly stopping sea ice from melting in the warmest of the Summer months, when even the biggest meltdown year in modern history sees a (then) near record low July–August melt.

More evaporation leading to less insolation, perhaps?

Explore the mystery further in this thread.
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pikaia

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #154 on: September 04, 2014, 09:44:04 AM »
viddaloo, isn't that what we would expect? If and when the Arctic is ice-free at the end of June, the melt in July and August will be zero. The absolute melting is declining, but what about the percentage melt?

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #155 on: September 04, 2014, 11:40:03 AM »
Record for a sustained recovery in August volume.

No 2-year period has added as much ice as Aug  2012 - to Aug 2014 did. There is a one year October spike that is larger (95-96) and July 2012-July 2014 was almost as large.


viddaloo

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #156 on: September 05, 2014, 01:18:40 AM »
viddaloo, isn't that what we would expect? If and when the Arctic is ice-free at the end of June, the melt in July and August will be zero. The absolute melting is declining, but what about the percentage melt?
Hi, pikaia,

it depends on what the base of the percentage is. This graph shows both: If the base is Winter Maximum, then the Jul/Aug melt % is slowly increasing (because more and more ice disappears for each year/decade). But if the base is yearly melt volume, then the graph (blue) is falling fast:



PS: Note also that the 2 May/June graphs are coming together around year 2022, telling us subtly that by that time, total melt volume will equal Winter Maximum volume, ie. Zero Ice Day.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2014, 01:24:56 AM by viddaloo »
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viddaloo

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #157 on: September 28, 2014, 09:00:36 PM »
Occationally, the latest IJIS extent, which is for yesterday, was also day 1000 of the current Five Year Cycle that started on January 1st 2012(*). Yesterday also started the 1000-day Big Descent if my Five Year Cycle hypothesis is correct.

*) I had to throw out the shoot days for now, February 29th, as they were causing nothing but trouble :)

I will present the cycles later today in another thread.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 01:01:33 AM by viddaloo »
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Laurent

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #158 on: October 17, 2014, 07:16:35 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #159 on: June 12, 2015, 05:39:59 PM »
I call this an oddity:

From E&E’s ClimateWire (subscription required):
Atmospheric O2 affects climate!

Quote
… findings [by Christopher Poulsen and others], published yesterday in Science, are surprising. Carbon dioxide is well-known as a greenhouse gas, as are methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide and more. But oxygen has not been implicated in warming the planet until now.

The study finds that when oxygen levels in the atmosphere drop, global temperatures get hotter, and vice versa.

Changes in the oxygen content of our atmosphere play out over millions of years, which means it is irrelevant on human timescales. So, although oxygen levels at present are decreasing, the effects would not be felt for many millenia.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #160 on: June 12, 2015, 06:39:17 PM »
I call this an oddity:

From E&E’s ClimateWire (subscription required):
Atmospheric O2 affects climate!

Quote
… findings [by Christopher Poulsen and others], published yesterday in Science, are surprising. Carbon dioxide is well-known as a greenhouse gas, as are methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide and more. But oxygen has not been implicated in warming the planet until now.

The study finds that when oxygen levels in the atmosphere drop, global temperatures get hotter, and vice versa.

Changes in the oxygen content of our atmosphere play out over millions of years, which means it is irrelevant on human timescales. So, although oxygen levels at present are decreasing, the effects would not be felt for many millenia.

Is it 1 April???

Or maybe The Onion is now getting papers published in E&E?

Oxyen levels are decreasing because of fossil fuel burning.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #161 on: June 12, 2015, 08:41:24 PM »
Here is another source:    ScienceDaily (article accessible)

Variations in atmospheric oxygen levels shaped Earth's climate through the ages
Quote
Summary:  Variations in the amount of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere significantly altered global climate throughout the planet's history. Efforts to reconstruct past climates must include this previously overlooked factor, a new study concludes.

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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #162 on: June 12, 2015, 09:48:30 PM »
Ah right, it's published in Science, so that makes it worth paying attention to. And indeed the mechanism makes sense.

It was your link to E&E that made me suspicious. Energy & Environment has produced some papers that have literally had me laughing at their ineptitude. The most memorable was Beck's classic demonstration of Dunning Kruger, kindly hosted by the Fiends of Science.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/files/documents/CO2%20Gas%20Analysis-Ernst-Georg%20Beck.pdf

I now find I had misremembered the idiotic Defreitas shambles about the ENSO driving global warming - that was published by the AGU.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #163 on: July 05, 2015, 04:07:01 AM »
The concentration of ice on August 1 tells you with almost zero uncertainty what the final pack will look like (size and shape). Here is the example from 2012 with a threshold of 65% concentration:


Seumas

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #164 on: July 31, 2015, 06:54:19 PM »
Nightvid Cole: I've been out of touch with this stuff for a while. What's the prediction for the final pack this year then?

LRC1962

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #165 on: August 05, 2015, 10:19:00 PM »
This could go into a large number of places, but as it does have to do with a record event guess this can be as good a place as any.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-bear-diving-record-linked-to-melting-sea-ice-1.3180470
 Video evidenced polar bear dive. Does not indicate where location is but does seem to indicate that even last year ice conditions may have been poorer then satellites seem to show. Although even last year there were plenty of areas that were just like this.
Note: link near bottom of a 2011 700 km swim looking for seal.
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Gerald95051

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Re: Records and oddities - Greenland/Baffin
« Reply #166 on: August 12, 2015, 07:02:06 PM »
I compared the ice thickness images for mid-August for this year to those of the past several years, and this year is notable for the absence of the 5-metre-thick old ice against the north edges of Baffin Is. and Greenland. In every prior year that I checked (2012 for example) the mountains of ice (in red/orange) were present, and this year they are further west if they exist at all. Is this of any significance?

Neven

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #167 on: August 12, 2015, 07:25:08 PM »
Welcome to the forum, Gerald.  :)

It probably doesn't have much significance, as the model who produces these images has been having some problems this melting season.
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seaicesailor

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #168 on: August 12, 2015, 07:52:54 PM »
To add to Neven's comment, that model also has been updated at least once since 2012. You cannot compare apples to apples even within the same model.

But nevertheless last Winter there was strong sustained transpolar drift, which pushes that ice 'against the wall' forcing it into the CAA islands' channels and stretching it one side toward Beaufort and the other side toward Fram. Probably some of that ice is melting in Beaufort 'as we speak'.

Also a factor why CAA has been being so resilient this year.

oren

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #169 on: August 13, 2015, 12:05:28 AM »
To add another aspect, I believe we've actually seen some of the thickest ice move away from shore and get carried away to Beaufort and to its doom, regardless of the problems with the model, this is actually "true" to the extent it can be verified. The main impact of this might be the next melting season of 2016. If it has good weather for melting, there will be much less resistance with all this thick ice gone.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #170 on: August 13, 2015, 01:34:28 AM »
I find myself wondering if the loss of this really solid ice might lead to a much more mobile ice pack.

mmghosh

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #171 on: August 25, 2015, 03:50:11 AM »
Charlotte Church sings A Requiem  for the Arctic Ice
https://www.facebook.com/events/1680127298888588/

Neven

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #172 on: August 25, 2015, 11:01:39 AM »
Thanks for the tip, but how is this a record or an oddity?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #173 on: August 25, 2015, 01:02:00 PM »
Was the requiem recorded on vinyl?   :P
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mmghosh

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #174 on: August 25, 2015, 01:37:15 PM »
 ;D

Stephen

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The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
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mercurybar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #176 on: October 10, 2015, 01:18:16 AM »
Looking at the latest Piomas data and projections my comment has nothing to do with what we as a scientific community can do to guide and advise political leaders or society in general because it seems nobody is listening. If we can agree that a complete loss of Arctic sea ice and a blue ocean event is only 7 years away and that global temperatures will rise by 2 degrees around 2032 then there is not much else for us to do. Record our failings for whatever form of intelligent life develops next on the planet? Too fatalistic? Honestly, I don’t know. As an educated man looking at the data and not instantly scoffing at the idea of the Earth becoming of a Mad Max post apocalyptic Kevin Costner world scares me. At a 2 degree rise many parts of the world will begin to have difficulty feeding their populations and that could be less than 15 years away. All of the predictions of what happens later in the century may not matter. How can humanity deal with a 25% reduction in food output? Throw in a little methane hydrate release, a few regional wars as mass migrations increase and a little sea level rise and we may see the end. I find myself fielding many questions from friends about where they should invest in property with the thought of securing an easier way of life for them and their children in the coming decade. Perhaps this is what we can best do now, help those that want to listen to have a better chance of making it through what we believe is coming. Given the current geopolitical climate and the shunning of science for a the belief in some omnipotent being looking down on us from above, I don’t hold much hope not only for avoiding the coming disaster but for ever getting out of it with some form of society that doesn’t look like the dark ages. Or, am I crazy?

Neven

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #177 on: October 10, 2015, 10:29:39 AM »
Let's keep this topic restricted to records and oddities concerning sea ice only.
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mercurybar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #178 on: October 10, 2015, 09:09:49 PM »
Neven, Sure. Perhaps we should start a new thread.  However, this is the problem.  Article after article. Blog after blog. Publication after publication.  Thousands of educated scientist reporting data and every news cast includes one of "us" and one dissenter.  We outnumber the dissenters a 1000 to 1 yet they get the same face time. The best we get is a recent CNN article by Sutter that water-downs the problem and even then nobody listens. Europe falls apart in in 1915 and we mobilize our entire country to fight, fascism tries to rule us all in the 1940s and we put everything we have into stopping it, terrorism spreads across the globe after 9/11 and we spend trillions. We are looking at the very real possibility of the extinction of our entire species and since I took my first college class in the 90's we were talking about it and now, over twenty years later, we are still only talking and nothing is changing.  WTF are we really doing? I show current data to educated left leaning friends and even they don't want to hear it.  New Xbox game, birthday party for the kids, planning a vacation.  Where is the fight, why are we not standing up, grabbing a reporter, a politician, a friend and forcing them to look at what is coming.  A group of Americans stood up and risked their very lives on a train in France to stop an attack and they are, rightfully, heralded as heroes.  Where are our heroes? When do we all start to stand up and fight for the future of our children. So, let's move this topic to a new thread but I ask all of you, who is going to be our hero?  I guarantee you it is a more important question than any other of the net.

Neven

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #179 on: October 12, 2015, 10:36:47 PM »
I agree, mercurybar. And there are a couple of topics in other categories discussing these things.
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DavidR

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Vale: CO2 400 ppm
« Reply #180 on: November 21, 2015, 08:06:20 AM »
In the week 8-14 Nov the Mauna Loa CO2 measurement,  commonly  known as the Keeling Curve, went above 400 for the first time in this annual cycle.

The September average was 397.75.  El Nino events typically lead to significant increases in CO2 levels well above the long term trend increase.  With the long term trend  being an increase near 2.25 ppm it  seems highly unlikely that we will ever see a weekly measurement  below 400 again. 
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #181 on: February 09, 2016, 06:49:46 PM »
As "Global Sea Ice area" is an odd metric [ ::) ], some mention here should be made of the ASIB post Global sea ice area record minimum concerning Cryosphere Today Global SIA record being broken 8 Feb 2016,
Quote
It's not easy to see, but 2016 has dipped below the 2006 record minimum of 14.391 km2, and currently stands at 14.365 million km2, which is 25K km2 lower. ...

As a bonus, the Northern Hemisphere Daily Snow Extent graph on the ASIG page appears to show a minimum snow extent for the same date.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #182 on: February 18, 2016, 08:22:34 PM »
Another odd metric, "Global Sea Ice Extent", has been immortalized on the ASIB:  Global sea ice extent minimum record.  Neven wrote:
Quote
... data provided by the NSIDC shows that the Global sea ice extent record has been broken as well:  The old minimum record was reached in 2006 and stood at 16.766 million km2. As of today NSIDC Global SIE stands at 16.707 million km2. That's a 59K difference, and given the forecasts for the Arctic, Global SIE could go even lower.

Another pair of records recently reported are for global January temperature and monthly temperature anomaly:
January 2016: Shattering the Global Warming Monthly Record
By Phil Plait
Quote
The global temperature anomaly for January 2016 was 1.13° Celsius. That makes it the hottest January on record (the previous record was 0.95° C in 2007). But there’s more: 1.13° is the largest anomaly for any month since records began in 1880. There have only been monthly anomalies greater than 1°C three times before in recorded history, and those three were all from last year. The farther back in the past you go, the lower the anomalies are on average.

Yes, the world is getting hotter.
...

A lot of deniers will say this is a statistical fluctuation; sometimes things are just hotter. That is utter baloney. If that were true, you’d expect just as many record cold days/months/years as warm ones. Two Australian scientists looked into this and found record hot and cold days were about even … until the 1960s, then hot days started outpacing cold ones, and from 2000 to 2014 record heat outnumbered record cold by a factor of 12 to 1.

As it happens, we’re in the middle of an El Niño, an event in the Pacific Ocean that tends to warm surface temperatures. This is also one of if not the most intense on record. Some of that record-breaking heat in January is due to El Niño for sure, but not all or even a majority of it. As I pointed out recently, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt showed that El Niño only accounts for a fraction of a degree of this heating. Even accounting for El Niño years, things are getting hotter.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/02/17/january_2016_was_the_hottest_january_on_record.html
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #183 on: February 18, 2016, 09:02:57 PM »
Smallest PIOMAS monthly volume increase for January in the 2006-2016 record, as reported by Neven on the ASIB in PIOMAS February 2016.

When will the odd records end? :-\
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magnamentis

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #184 on: February 18, 2016, 11:17:13 PM »
@ zero growth & zero extent, summer and winter as it seams when it comes to ice but then will be heat records

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #185 on: February 19, 2016, 09:19:27 PM »
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848
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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #186 on: February 19, 2016, 09:22:57 PM »
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848

Everything is bigger in the US? (45 F = 7,2 C)
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DavidR

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #187 on: February 20, 2016, 12:20:02 AM »
Another pair of records recently reported are for global January temperature and monthly temperature anomaly:
January 2016: Shattering the Global Warming Monthly Record
By Phil Plait
Quote
The global temperature anomaly for January 2016 was 1.13° Celsius. That makes it the hottest January on record (the previous record was 0.95° C in 2007). But there’s more: 1.13° is the largest anomaly for any month since records began in 1880. There have only been monthly anomalies greater than 1°C three times before in recorded history, and those three were all from last year.
.
It's not just that they  happened last year, it's that  they have happened consecutively since Oct 2015.

 In this El Nino cycle the last 4 months (1.06, 1.02, 1.11, 1.13) have all  been well  above the previous record hottest  month (0.95.).

 In the 1998 El Nino only one month (Feb 1998 , 0.88) exceeded the previous record month (0.78)and then by only  0.1 dC, but every  month from Feb -  August 1998 was hotter than January 1998.
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Tensor

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #188 on: February 20, 2016, 04:29:12 AM »
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848

Everything is bigger in the US? (45 F = 7,2 C)

While the number is still bigger in the US, a difference of 45F is ~25C.    0F = -17.7C  45F = 7.2C   17.7+7.2 = 24.9
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Records and oddities
« Reply #189 on: February 22, 2016, 05:21:24 PM »
Largest -ve anomaly on record for Barents sea.