Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 788517 times)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2278
  • Likes Given: 309
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3200 on: September 09, 2020, 12:31:31 AM »


https://mobile.twitter.com/ColoradoClimate/status/1302654620733333504

Meteorologists will be checking to see whether any place in Colorado officially beats the national record for the shortest gap between a 100-degree day and measurable snow.

It had been five days in Rapid City, S.D., in 2000, says Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider, who notes that he studied only records kept at major weather stations.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/08/910677557/in-48-hours-colorados-wild-weather-sets-records-for-both-heat-and-snow


What a difference a day makes
« Last Edit: September 09, 2020, 12:45:38 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Phil42

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 88
  • Likes Given: 679
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3201 on: September 16, 2020, 10:24:26 AM »
Some anecdotes from Switzerland

It has been an interesting summer here. An mentionable observation I made was that people in general (including me) would describe this summer as "average" or "normal" in regards to temperature. But in reality it has been one of the 10 hottest summers ever recorded in the country. But since it was cooler than 2016, 2018 and 2019 it actually didn't feel that extreme. I think that's a very good example that our feelings of what is "normal" are shifting rapidly with the rising temperatures. This is just an anecdote, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear similar stories from other parts of the world.

Another thing that happened was that the highest alert for severe weather was issued for the first time in 15 years. Despite the summer being slightly below average in rainfall, we have seen some very intense rainfalls in the end of August causing floods in the south. This is consistent with a trend too here: less rainfall in summer, but when it rains, it pours.

And now, there was this mid-September heatwave gripping Western-Central Europe. September records broken in several stations across multiple countries. Here in CH, the station in Fahy (596m above sea level) has set a new september record of 29.9C. The heatwave doesn't get that much attention in the media, which is kind of surprising to me since the anomalies are up to 15C above normal. But then again, with the increasing number of heatwaves they feel more and more "normal" every year.

There hasn't been anything too extraordinary happening, but everything is just consistent in the trend of everything getting warmer. More heatwaves, glaciers melting, fish dying and ... nothing changes.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2298
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 262
  • Likes Given: 19550
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3202 on: September 16, 2020, 04:27:22 PM »
You probably mean "nothing changes in (civilisation-) human behaviour" or somesuch?

Here cold records and hot records were broken in July and now in September. Very weird.
Climate change is especially seen in the winter months which are already heated up ca. +3°C this year, and more turbulence; higher average wind force, faster changes in wind direction and different wind direction distribution. This will be one hell of a climate transition. Omegad.
This is in the north of the Netherlands, 53°N.

I think your observations of new 'normals' in weather are spot on. Missing life forms are also part of the new 'normal'.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 506
  • Likes Given: 97
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3203 on: September 16, 2020, 05:01:58 PM »
The problem with anecdotal weather is that...it is anecdotal. And most people have a very very short and faulty memory. When (many years ago)  I crosschecked my grandparents stories about weather during their childhood with actual weather data it turned out that their memories were less than exact to put it mildly. So here are some actual data from Central Europe (Budapest).

Monthly average temperature, monthly minimum temperature, monthly maximum temperature 1960-1990 avg vs 2010-2019 avg

1. -0,6 vs 1,3  ;  -9,3 vs -7 ; 9,5 vs 11,5
2. 1,9 vs 3,1   ;  -7,3 vs -5,3;  11,5 vs 15,1
3. 6,3 vs 8,2   ;  -4,1 vs -1,9; 19,8 vs 21
4. 11.8 vs 13,8 ; 1,1 vs 2,4;  24,4 vs 27,8
5. 16,6 vs 17,4;  5,4 vs 6,6; 28,6 vs 30,2
6. 19,8 vs 22 ;  9,5 vs 11,7; 31,6 vs 34,8
7. 21,5 vs 23,8 ; 11,8 vs 12,6; 33,5 vs 36,4
8. 20,8 vs 23,5  ; 10,9 vs 12,6; 33,1 vs 36,1
9. 17 vs 18,2     ; 6,6 vs 7,7; 29,5 vs 31,1
10. 11,5 vs 12,5 ; 0,8 vs 1,8; 23,8 vs 24,7
11. 5,7 vs 7,9 ; -3,4 vs -0,9; 16,5 vs 19,1
12. 1,6 vs 2,8 ; -7,3 vs -6,4; 11,5 vs 13,7

As you can see average temperatures rose cca 2 C but monthly minimum and maximum temperatures also rose similarly.

I also checked the standard deviation of temps and other distribution measures, eg skewness, the length of the growing season, last and first frost date, etc. The point is that all temperatures rose and volatility is not statistically higher than before. The weather is not at all more weird than it used to be (although it seems like that to us), it is not that the highs are higher and the lows are lower, and it is not more extreme. It is simply warmer. Shorter, warmer winters, longer, warmer summers,early spring, late autumn. It is not more chaotic than before. Simply, my country is slowly transitioning into the subtropical zone.

Warming does not cause more volatility in temperatures, it just causes warming. And coincidentally more rain globally but a changing distribution of rain which could be more dangerous than the effect of temperatures as adaptation to (much) less or much more precipitation can be very hard.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2020, 05:18:02 PM by El Cid »

Comradez

  • New ice
  • Posts: 74
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3204 on: September 16, 2020, 07:40:53 PM »
Hey, so apparently there is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean right now.  Could possibly reach hurricane strength before slamming into Greece.  Named Udine / Ianos
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121371

Alphabet Hotel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 68
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #3205 on: September 24, 2020, 02:39:00 PM »
From The Guardian, 21 Sep 2020


I'm 18 and can already see my Alaska community changed forever by climate change

In Sitka, where people have lived for thousands of years, I’ve seen glaciers shrink, summer droughts and deadly landslides – and our elected officials are doing nothing

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/21/sitka-alaska-community-changed-forever-climate-change-cora-dow