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Author Topic: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes  (Read 10350 times)

wdmn

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #50 on: January 11, 2020, 05:17:02 AM »
Great Lakes Ice Cover Nearly a Record Low For Early January

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-08-great-lakes-ice-cover-low-early-january

"Ice cover throughout the Great Lakes is nearly a record low for early January because warmer than average temperatures have dominated the region so far this winter.

The total ice coverage on the five Great Lakes was 1.5% on Tuesday, or the second lowest for Jan. 7, according to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL). Ice cover on that date has averaged about 13.9% since records began in 1973.

...

Great Lakes ice cover usually peaks later in winter, sometimes in late February or early March. The current conditions are not reflective of what the peak might be in the next month or two because that will depend on long-term weather patterns.

Last year started out nearly as slow, but then colder conditions moved in and the ice cover peaked at 80.9% in early March. That's much above the average yearly peak of 55.7%.

On the flipside, early January 2017 had about 3% ice coverage. Persistently mild temperatures through February that year prevented ice growth and the season only had a maximum peak coverage of 19.4%.

What really stands out is Lake Erie has no ice coverage right now.

Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes, which usually makes it freeze up fastest. The lake's ice coverage has averaged 27.7% by Jan. 7.

The lack of ice on Lake Erie could keep it primed for lake-effect snow deeper into the winter compared to normal unless more persistent cold air arrives soon.

All of the other four Great Lakes are also trailing behind their average ice cover for this time of year."


Attached is a graph showing the date of maximum ice extent on Lake Superior, from 1973 to 2019. Note that 50 days is Feb. 19th and 63 Days is March 4th.

Line is five year running average.

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #51 on: January 11, 2020, 04:28:17 PM »
I live in Chicago and beaches line the shoreline. They are being destroyed this year and many will not exist this spring. On my drive to work this morning, there is a gorgeous beach house built in the early 1900's on the south side that has waves rolling through it. All of these old structures are masonry and brick with more roof than walls so this one will survive the storm. The beach is another story.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2020, 12:04:02 AM »
Chicago More Vulnerable to Climate Change than Miami, Says ‘Death and Life of Great Lakes’ Author
https://news.wttw.com/2020/01/16/chicago-more-vulnerable-climate-change-miami-says-death-and-life-great-lakes-author
Quote
At the point when Egan was writing his book, which synthesizes a decade of his reporting on the lakes for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lake Michigan was at a near record low. In 2020, it’s at a near record high.

“In the past, it would take a quarter-century to go from low to high. We just did it in five years,” Egan said.

Going back to the 1840s, Lake Michigan has reliably peaked or bottomed out within 3 feet of an average level, for a total 6-foot swing. “Chicago was built on that assumption, so was Milwaukee,” said Egan.

The new norm could be 5-foot variations, for a 10-foot swing, he said, and that’s cause for alarm.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #53 on: January 24, 2020, 10:25:06 PM »
My cousin ran a fishing charter on Lake Erie, so I know a little about this:
Voluntary Measures
Lake Erie turns toxic every summer. Officials aren’t cracking down on the source.
https://grist.org/food/ohio-officials-know-how-to-stop-lake-erie-from-turning-toxic-but-no-one-will-do-it/
Quote
The algae are natural. This slow-motion crisis, however, is largely manmade — and neither the federal government nor states are effectively cracking down on the major contributor.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TerryM

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #54 on: January 25, 2020, 05:28:02 AM »
^^
Good link - Thanks!


The scum is heavy on our Canadian shores.
It's as bad as what we used to see in Lake Mead Nevada, and the fish there all turned into females at one point!


I wonder if this is somehow related to the lowering testosterone levels recorded in NA males?
Terry

wdmn

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #55 on: February 06, 2020, 10:12:35 AM »
Great Lakes Ice Cover Nearly a Record Low For Early January

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-08-great-lakes-ice-cover-low-early-january

"Ice cover throughout the Great Lakes is nearly a record low for early January because warmer than average temperatures have dominated the region so far this winter.

The total ice coverage on the five Great Lakes was 1.5% on Tuesday, or the second lowest for Jan. 7, according to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL). Ice cover on that date has averaged about 13.9% since records began in 1973.

....

What really stands out is Lake Erie has no ice coverage right now.

Lake Erie is the shallowest of the Great Lakes, which usually makes it freeze up fastest. The lake's ice coverage has averaged 27.7% by Jan. 7."

UPDATE: as of February 5th the ice cover for the Great Lakes is at 6.5%, meaning it is at half the average for a month ago.

Lake Erie continues to be ice free.

be cause

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #56 on: February 06, 2020, 12:13:40 PM »
I was wondering why bbr had been so quiet this winter . I just looked .. his last post was on my dad's 100th birthday .. his last visit to the forum was on my 60th ..

 certainly this winter thus far has run very differently to his expectations .. and encouraged hibernation .. :)  ..  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

blumenkraft

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #57 on: February 06, 2020, 12:42:14 PM »
No, he's banned.

He said some very very stupid shit and Neven had enough.
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dnem

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #58 on: February 06, 2020, 12:43:42 PM »
Yes, I summed up this winter's strong PV, cold arctic/warm continents, low snow cover weather as the "bbr is gonna have to wait winter" over on the freezing thread a few days ago!  Seriously, I am seeing more references in more places to the general idea that despite decent SIE gains this winter, we are set up for an early and fast warmup this spring.  It will be fascinating to see if this verifies.


wdmn

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #59 on: February 06, 2020, 01:51:29 PM »
No, he's banned.

He said some very very stupid shit and Neven had enough.

It's too bad it had to be that way. He was a lot of fun at times.

gerontocrat

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #60 on: February 06, 2020, 03:14:08 PM »
& bbr would have not enjoyed the season so far.

Ice cover
5 Feb 2020  6.5%
5 Feb 2019  36.9%
5 Feb 2018  50.3%

Also when the ice cover is low, one expects to hear about "Lake-Effect Snow", but this season very few instances reported on Wunderground.news.

All part of low snow at low latitudes, high snow at high latitudes?

Local businesses complaining - no ice fishing

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

Water Levels
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-02-04-great-lakes-record-high-mean-average-level-january
Quote
Water levels on the Great Lakes were much higher than average in January, setting new high-water records on three of those lakes. The mean water level for the month, calculated by taking the average of each day's water level, topped the all-time January record on lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

January's mean water level on lakes Huron and Michigan was 581.56 feet, surpassing the previous record for January of 581.3 feet set in 1987 (the two lakes are treated as the same lake by the Army Corps of Engineers). The long-term average for January is 578.41 feet.

Lake Superior, the largest and deepest of the five Great Lakes, also broke its all-time January record-high water level. The mean water level last month was 602.72 feet, just above the previous record of 602.69 feet set in 1986. January's long-term average is 601.48 feet.

The two remaining Great Lakes, Erie and Ontario, did not break any records in January, but their water levels were still significantly above average for the month.

Lake Erie had a mean water level of 573.49 feet last month, narrowly missing its all-time January record high by 0.2 feet (2.4 inches). That's more than 2 feet higher than average for the month.

Lake Ontario's mean January water level was only about 0.35 feet shy of its all-time record for that month, or about 1.6 feet (19 inches) higher than the long-term January average.

Water levels across all of the Great Lakes on Jan. 31 ranged from 4 to 27 inches higher than the levels on the same date last year, the Army Corps of Engineers said in its latest weekly report.

Levels on lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior are expected decline over the next month, falling 1 to 3 inches by early March. Still, water levels will remain significantly higher than average heading into the spring. Lake Erie's level is predicted to hold steady, while Lake Ontario is forecast to rise an inch between now and early March.

"High water levels and potentially record-high water levels are expected to persist for at least the next six months, so flood-prone areas are expected to remain vulnerable," said the Army Corps of Engineers.

Why Are Water Levels So High?
The Great Lakes set several monthly records for highest levels from May through August in 2019, and lakes Erie and Ontario set all-time records last summer.

The reason for the persistently high levels in the Great Lakes? Excessive precipitation in the region.

Above-average precipitation has plagued the Midwest for most of the past year. The dominant pattern has brought a parade of storms that dumped heavy snow and rain in the central U.S. since late last winter. Most locations in the Midwest had one of the 10 wettest years on record in 2019.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #61 on: February 06, 2020, 04:30:04 PM »
It's too bad it had to be that way. He was a lot of fun at times.

Well, i don't know. Remember, when he blamed the french revolution for climate change. That's just a tick too insane.

BTW, only recently i learned that Joseph Goebbels had a similar talking point about jews and the french revolution. Verry crazy Nazi stuff...

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The Walrus

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #62 on: February 06, 2020, 05:02:23 PM »
& bbr would have not enjoyed the season so far.

Ice cover
5 Feb 2020  6.5%
5 Feb 2019  36.9%
5 Feb 2018  50.3%

Also when the ice cover is low, one expects to hear about "Lake-Effect Snow", but this season very few instances reported on Wunderground.news.

All part of low snow at low latitudes, high snow at high latitudes?

Local businesses complaining - no ice fishing

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

Water Levels
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2020-02-04-great-lakes-record-high-mean-average-level-january
Quote
Water levels on the Great Lakes were much higher than average in January, setting new high-water records on three of those lakes. The mean water level for the month, calculated by taking the average of each day's water level, topped the all-time January record on lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

January's mean water level on lakes Huron and Michigan was 581.56 feet, surpassing the previous record for January of 581.3 feet set in 1987 (the two lakes are treated as the same lake by the Army Corps of Engineers). The long-term average for January is 578.41 feet.

Lake Superior, the largest and deepest of the five Great Lakes, also broke its all-time January record-high water level. The mean water level last month was 602.72 feet, just above the previous record of 602.69 feet set in 1986. January's long-term average is 601.48 feet.

The two remaining Great Lakes, Erie and Ontario, did not break any records in January, but their water levels were still significantly above average for the month.

Lake Erie had a mean water level of 573.49 feet last month, narrowly missing its all-time January record high by 0.2 feet (2.4 inches). That's more than 2 feet higher than average for the month.

Lake Ontario's mean January water level was only about 0.35 feet shy of its all-time record for that month, or about 1.6 feet (19 inches) higher than the long-term January average.

Water levels across all of the Great Lakes on Jan. 31 ranged from 4 to 27 inches higher than the levels on the same date last year, the Army Corps of Engineers said in its latest weekly report.

Levels on lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior are expected decline over the next month, falling 1 to 3 inches by early March. Still, water levels will remain significantly higher than average heading into the spring. Lake Erie's level is predicted to hold steady, while Lake Ontario is forecast to rise an inch between now and early March.

"High water levels and potentially record-high water levels are expected to persist for at least the next six months, so flood-prone areas are expected to remain vulnerable," said the Army Corps of Engineers.

Why Are Water Levels So High?
The Great Lakes set several monthly records for highest levels from May through August in 2019, and lakes Erie and Ontario set all-time records last summer.

The reason for the persistently high levels in the Great Lakes? Excessive precipitation in the region.

Above-average precipitation has plagued the Midwest for most of the past year. The dominant pattern has brought a parade of storms that dumped heavy snow and rain in the central U.S. since late last winter. Most locations in the Midwest had one of the 10 wettest years on record in 2019.

The reason that many areas have not had lake effect snow piling up is that the temperatures are too warm.  Most of the precipitation is falling as rain.  Many areas saw one of their rainiest on record.  Further north, areas in upper Michigan have exceeded average snowfall to date by 1-3 feet.  Similarly, northern Minnesota is having one of its snowiest winters in record.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #63 on: February 06, 2020, 08:58:21 PM »
No, he's banned.

He said some very very stupid shit and Neven had enough.

It's too bad it had to be that way. He was a lot of fun at times.

In an early November record breaking cold snap in the U.S., he stated that this was clear evidence of the beginning of a regional ice age that would become more generalized over time.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #64 on: February 06, 2020, 09:01:00 PM »
Chicago is know for its Lake Michigan shoreline, a continuous stretch of parks and beaches. They are taking a beating. Entire beaches have disappeared this winter.

wdmn

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2020, 08:18:51 AM »
The average time for peak ice on the Great Lakes is here, and cover continues to be exceptionally low. Extent for February 24th is the 4th lowest on record (back to 1973), behind 2012 (4.56%), 1998 (6.2%), 2002 (6.4%). It is only the fourth time that extent has been below 10% for this date.

February 24th
2010-2019 avg: 37.34
2018: 50.5%
2019: 57.2%
2020: 9.0%

While Lake Superior tends to peak during the first week of March, and some growth in extent is expected over the next week, Lake Erie's maximum extent is usually reached around the 18th of February. These two lakes currently show the largest divergence from the mean.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 09:06:09 AM by wdmn »

The Walrus

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #66 on: February 26, 2020, 10:51:14 PM »
Looks like we will witness the consequences of open water on the Great Lakes.  Areas downwind are forecast to receive several feet of snow this week.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #67 on: February 27, 2020, 04:25:22 PM »
20-foot waves may be coming to the Great Lakes due to approaching winter storm
Quote
Lake Ontario could get waves of up to 20 feet near its center, Guy said. Waves as tall as 10 feet could form on Lakes Huron and Erie, peaking on their southern shores.
...
Meantime, blizzard warnings are posted in New York, just south of Buffalo and north of Syracuse, where 2 to 3 feet of snow combined with 40- to 50 -mph winds will make for whiteout conditions.

Travel will be nearly impossible, he said.
...
Increased snowfall this season in the region owes in part to low ice coverage on the Great Lakes, as moisture continues to feed precipitation, Guy said. The lakes this week are 9% covered in ice, compared with a typical 42% average coverage, he said. That's the lowest on record since 1973. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/weather/14-foot-waves-great-lakes-winter-weather/index.html
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ZeaLitY

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #68 on: May 11, 2020, 06:16:33 AM »
Lost my entire weekend reading my way through the forums! Big thanks to Tom and everyone else for amassing such a great collection of news and studies here. The collapse subreddit has gotten shorter and shorter on real climate change content over the years, and so it'd be wonderful to call this a new home.

The Great Lakes are a primary destination for a lot of people on r/collapse/ and elsewhere who want to escape climate change's worst effects in the short and mid-term. I wasn't immune to this, and have networked with a few Yoopers myself, surprised at how few degrees of separation I had with the area once I started talking to people. This thread has been fascinating as the lake-level rise totally escaped my radar over the last several months (COVID-19, Australian bushfires, etc. dominated headlines instead, I suppose). It's raised a few points that contrast with conventional knowledge that the Great Lakes are the panacea for those looking to survive:

  • Superficially seems like if the lake level rise continues, it may pose a flooding problem for the edges of the UP, along with other coastal communities?
  • A lot of shallow talk about permaculture in the area notes that the lake effect snow does not particularly disrupt organic farming, and forms part of a helpful cycle—but it seems like the precip changing primarily to rain definitely would be disruptive
  • A lot of the other shallow reliance on the area points to the UP being sandwiched between two of the Great Lakes as the best temperature-moderator possible outside oceanic coastal areas—it seems like that's a little jeopardized too if the region's climate has depended on consistent winter ice cover, and this is all disappearing earlier and earlier in the year

One feels a bit like Burgess Meredith in the Twilight Zone when staring down the magnitude of research on things like this to read through (and deduce the intersections between) when possessing so little time. Too much to process. I would absolutely appreciate any speculation on this stuff; thanks in advance.

oren

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Re: Regional/Local Impacts of Global Warming in the Great Lakes
« Reply #69 on: May 11, 2020, 06:51:31 AM »
Welcome, ZeaLitY.