COP26 in Glasgow

[Tor Bejnar]

An olivine-related post in the Project Vesta thread suggests who will want to dig up all that "olivine" - anybody who wants nickel and chromium.  Batteries, anybody?

[ArgonneForest]

If even Jason Box doesn't think we'll go extinct, then I'm not worried about it. What I am worried about is if we can keep civilization afloat. I think we can, but it will be bumpy for sure

[kassy]

We Have 4 Years Left to Keep Warming to 1.5 °C. Here's How We Can Do It

Like the last two in 2014 and 2018, the recent IPCC report doesn't say it directly in the text, but you can clearly infer from the numbers that to have anything like a decent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C – the goal of 2015's Paris Agreement – global emissions need to peak by around 2025 and then plunge rapidly towards zero.

We had 11 years to reach that peak and turn it around. Now we have four.

...

The report shows that at the moment, the world emits around 40 gigatonnes a year (and growing). That leaves about 12.5 years of emitting at current levels. So if the world reaches zero emissions by 2050, in each year until then, emissions must be no higher than 40 percent of 2021's emissions on average.

To get emissions to peak and then start on a downward trend is fairly simple in theory. There are several major changes that can be made in sectors like electricity, construction and transport, where lots of emissions come from, and where there are readily available alternatives. These include:

A ban on new fossil fuel infrastructure. No new coal-fired power plants, no new oil and gas operations, and no airport expansions. In essence, the world could agree a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.

Existing coal plants could be rapidly replaced with renewable sources of energy, like windfarms.

Radical improvements could be made in the energy efficiency of buildings.

Natural gas could be eliminated in buildings, replaced with heating and cooking which use electricity.

Ground transport could be decarbonized by a shift to electric vehicles (cars, trucks, buses, trains) and from cars to bikes, walking, and public transport.

Achieving all of this in 10 years is technically possible. But there are significant obstacles which are fundamentally political.

https://www.sciencealert.com/we-can-still-make-our-emissions-fall-says-ipcc-report-here-s-who-is-stopping-us

The first two are relatively easy is we ignore politics.

Changing all housing and transport in 10 years...not sure. It would take many millions of extra cars and for houses many millions of heat pumps. We can do this but probably not on this quick time scale. It would be great if we had started this at least a decade ago.

[blu_ice]

There’s nothing we didn’t already know for decades. Yet emissions are just growing and growing.

The next report will state what we already know: 1.5C target is unachievable. So will be 2C.

Focusing on technical issues is useless. AGW is like poverty, crime or war. Unsolvable in practice.

[NeilT]

Urgency has been needed for Decades.

I've been following AGW since the early 90's.  Millions more have been following since the 2000's.

The issue is not that it is not known.  The issue is that the people don't believe they actually have to do anything other than vote.  They believe that it is the problem of those who run the world to fix and if they don't fix it then they will blame them.

Slowly the youth of today are finally getting to understand that failure of the elite today is catastrophic changes in their lives in the decades to come.  Unfortunately they are easy meat for political predators who just want to hijack the concern for their own ends.

Remember 350.org?  You don't hear that much about it today do you?  It was an organisation set up specifically to make everyone aware that unless we reduce CO2 back to 350ppm, then things are going to go south pretty damned quickly.

As for reducing CO2?  The quickest way to see that is to go to the NOAA CO2 trends site and see just how much Kyoto, Copenhagen, Paris have _reduced_ CO2 emissions.

Reality is that they have continued to rise and rise faster.  By the end of 2022 we will have had our first decade with every single year of growth over 2ppm.

Talking 1.5C is a waste of time.  To achieve that we had to act in 2000 and act fast and keep on acting.  We should have half our generating infrastructure on carbon neutral now and be working on removing gas from domestic and industry.  In fact we have barely started.

It should not stop us from trying.  But, please, don't say "we can do it" for 1.5C because we can't.  Setting a standard we can never get close to is not going to help.  Setting 2C and just missing it after a massive push, positive.  Missing 1.5 by half the planet, negative.

[gerontocrat]

While discussions on this thread abound about various solutions it is quite possible that COP26 has been skewered. The chances are blah blah about carbon-neutral by 2060 from China but diddly-squat from China for now to 2030 (or probably even greater emissions this decade) . That means a lot more olivine?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58427519
Climate-above-all plea by US fails to stir China

US climate envoy John Kerry has told China that climate change is more important than politics as tensions between the two countries continue.

He made the remarks following two days of talks with Chinese leaders in the city of Tianjin.

But China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned on Wednesday that the worsening relationship could hamper future co-operation on climate issues.

Both countries have outlined steps to tackle climate change. But Mr Kerry has called on China to increase its efforts to tackle carbon emissions.

Tensions between the two countries have worsened in recent months with disputes over China's human rights record, the South China Sea and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Mr Kerry said he had told the Chinese that "climate is not ideological, not partisan and not a geostrategic weapon".

"It is essential... no matter what differences we have, that we have to address the climate crisis," he said

Earlier, Mr Wang called on the US to "stop seeing China as a threat and an opponent", accusing Washington of a "major strategic miscalculation towards China".

"It is impossible for China-US climate co-operation to be elevated above the overall environment of China-US relations," he said.

China became the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2006 and is now responsible for more than a quarter of the world's overall greenhouse gas emissions.

President Xi Jinping has said he will aim for China's emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for the country to be carbon neutral by 2060. But it is not yet clear how he plans to achieve this.

Mr Kerry said he aimed to meet Chinese leaders again ahead of the upcoming COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow this year and push for stronger emission reduction targets.

"We have consistently said to China and other countries... to do their best within their given capacity," he said on Thursday. "We think that China can do more."

[Freegrass]

I'm so very worried that the media isn't warming us all up for this all important summit... It's now that we need to debate what needs to be decided in Glasgow, but the silence about COP26 in the media is disturbing... It's like nobody understands that this is way more important than the senility of Joe Biden...

[Iain]

It's still weeks away. (Oct 31st) I'm sure there will be more coverage in the run up

The important thing is adding up the pledges post event - will it be enough?

[kassy]

It´s not like our debate would matter. They should know enough by now. Still no guarantee we get anything which translates into actual measures that do something in the physical world.

PS: removed blockquote of the preceding post.

Some related news:

Green groups say that the COP26 climate conference due to be held in Glasgow in November should be postponed.

They argue that vaccine inequity and unaffordable accommodation will lock out "huge numbers" of developing country delegates.

But the UK government now says it will fund quarantine hotel stays for delegates, observers and media arriving from red list countries.

Vaccines are being rolled out for any delegate who needs one, ministers say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58472566

[kassy]

Climate change: Vulnerable nations call for 'emergency pact'


The countries most vulnerable to climate change are calling for an "emergency pact" to tackle rising temperatures.

The group wants all countries to agree radical steps to avoid "climate catastrophe" at the upcoming COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

...

Representing some 1.2 billion people, the CVF consists of countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific.

The group has been key in pushing the rest of the world to accept the idea of keeping the rise in global temperatures to under 1.5C this century.

This was incorporated into the Paris agreement in 2015.

Recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the threshold will be passed in little over a decade at current rates of carbon emissions.

...

The vulnerable group says that progress on climate change has stalled and COP26 should move forward with what it terms a "climate emergency pact".

This would see every country put forward a new climate plan every year between now and 2025.

At present, signatories of the Paris agreement are only obliged to put forward new plans every five years.

The vulnerable nations say that richer countries must fulfil their obligations to deliver $100bn in climate finance per year over the 2020-24 period.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58477926

[vox_mundi]

Limiting Fossil Fuel Extraction to Keep Global Warming Below 1.5° C Target
https://phys.org/news/2021-09-limiting-fossil-fuel-global.html

Nearly 60% of both oil and fossil methane gas and almost 90% of coal must remain in the ground by 2050 in order to keep global warming below 1.5° C, finds a study by University College London researchers.

Global oil and gas production must decline by 3% annually until 2050 in order to reach this target.

Many fossil fuel extraction projects, both planned and operational, are not conducive to meeting internationally agreed target limits on global warming, as set out by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. A significant number of regions have therefore already reached peak fossil fuel production, and any increase in production from one region must be offset by a greater production decline elsewhere.

The findings, published in Nature, are based on a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5° C this century, meaning that increasing the likelihood of reaching this target would require an even more rapid decline in production and more fossil fuels left in the ground.

... The IPCC Special Report on 1.5° C, successive Production Gap Reports and the IEA Net Zero Report have indicated beyond doubt that dramatic cuts in fossil fuel production are required immediately in order to move towards net zero emissions, and that current and indicated fossil fuel production trajectories are moving us in the wrong direction.

"We stress that our estimates of unextractable reserves and production decline rates are likely underestimates, given we use a carbon budget consistent with only a 50% chance of meeting 1.5° C and the huge uncertainty around the deployment of negative emission technologies.

"Our new paper adds further weight to recent research, indicating that global oil and fossil methane gas production has already peaked. From a regional perspective, our results suggest significant transition risk for large fossil fuel producers. Oil production in the Middle East for example roughly halves between 2020 and 2050, suggesting the diversification of economies away from a dependence on hydrocarbon revenues is absolutely critical."

The work builds on previous research in 2015, which found that in order to limit warming to 2° C, a third of oil reserves, nearly half of fossil methane gas (49%) reserves and over 80% of coal reserves should remain in the ground.

Dan Welsby et al, Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5° C world, Nature (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8

[Freegrass]

I suddenly have a little more hope... It's 8 pm here in Belgium, 7PM in Great Britain, and by coincidence BBC World was on when I turned on my digibox to see what I needed to record this evening... And what do you know... On prime time, BBC world was talking about the climate... THIS IS GOING OUT TO THE ENTIRE WORLD!

Does Great Britain want to have an historic event in Glasgow so that they can tell the world they saved the planet?

I have hope again for Glasgow! 

What they talked about was very interesting indeed... The flaring that goes on in Nigeria when they drill for oil... Apparently the country is full of flares to burn up the methane that's released when drilling for oil...

Don't we have a better use for that gas instead of flaring it off? 

[kassy]

It´s the cheapest solution so they do that everywhere. Maybe it will be outlawed at COP but i doubt it.

[vox_mundi]

Planet Is On a 'Catastrophic' Global Warming Path, UN Report Shows
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/09/17/us/catastrophic-climate-change-un-report/index.html

The planet is careening toward warming of 2.7° C above pre-industrial levels -- far above what scientists say the world should be targeting -- according to a report on global emissions targets by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

https://unfccc.int/documents/306848

Scientists have said that the planet needs to slash 45% of its emissions by 2030 to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century. But under current emissions commitments from countries there will be a 16% increase in emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels, according to the report.

That would lead the planet to warm to 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the report says.

Scientists have said global temperatures should remain below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels to stave off the worse consequences of the climate crisis. A UN report in August showed global temperature is already around 1.2 degrees of warming.

... Addressing leaders at the Major Economies Forum on Friday morning, Guterres said that the UN climate conference in November, during which world leaders will meet to discuss emissions targets, has a "high risk of failure."

"We have the tools to achieve this target," Guterres said. "But we are rapidly running out of time."

[kassy]

We got our first pledge! 

Global Methane Pledge Offers Hope on Climate in Lead Up to Glasgow

An international effort to slash methane emissions could quickly address climate change if the US and EU can stick to their pledges and get other countries to join.

The United States and the European Union pledged on Friday to reduce methane emissions by at least 30 percent below 2020 levels by 2030, ushering in the start of what they hope will be a “global methane pledge” to quickly address warming, as the next round of international climate negotiations nears.

...

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20092021/global-methane-pledge-glasgow-cop-26/

Of course that still has to turn into laws/action...

[Jim Hunt]

According to Boris Johnson on Twitter:

We are approaching that critical turning point when we must show that we are capable of finally taking responsibility for the destruction we are inflicting on our planet, and ourselves.

In his speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday the UK Government web site reports that he said:

In the words of the Oxford philosopher Toby Ord “we are just old enough to get ourselves into serious trouble”.

We still cling with part of our minds to the infantile belief that the world was made for our gratification and pleasure and we combine this narcissism with an assumption of our own immortality.

We believe that someone else will clear up the mess we make, because that is what someone else has always done.

We trash our habitats again and again with the inductive reasoning that we have got away with it so far, and therefore we will get away with it again.

My friends the adolescence of humanity is coming to an end.

We are approaching that critical turning point – in less than two months – when we must show that we are capable of learning, and maturing, and finally taking responsibility for the destruction we are inflicting, not just upon our planet but ourselves.

It is time for humanity to grow up.

It is time for us to listen to the warnings of the scientists – and look at Covid, if you want an example of gloomy scientists being proved right – and to understand who we are and what we are doing.

The world – this precious blue sphere with its eggshell crust and wisp of an atmosphere – is not some indestructible toy, some bouncy plastic romper room against which we can hurl ourselves to our heart’s content.

Daily, weekly, we are doing such irreversible damage that long before a million years are up, we will have made this beautiful planet effectively uninhabitable – not just for us but for many other species.

And that is why the Glasgow COP26 summit is the turning point for humanity.

Do you believe one single word of it?

[Freegrass]

Do you believe one single word of it?

I believe that it's already too late. But let's hope! What else do have left but hope that the world will finally wake up? If they don't wake up now, it's game over for sure!

[vox_mundi]

In the words of the Oxford philosopher Toby Ord “we are just old enough to get ourselves into serious trouble”.

We still cling with part of our minds to the infantile belief that the world was made for our gratification and pleasure and we combine this narcissism with an assumption of our own immortality.

We believe that someone else will clear up the mess we make, because that is what someone else has always done.

We trash our habitats again and again with the inductive reasoning that we have got away with it so far, and therefore we will get away with it again.

My friends the adolescence of humanity is coming to an end.

Maybe he's channeling Arthur C. Clarke. In the ending of Clarke's 'Childhoods End', the Earth was destroyed.

[gerontocrat]

Do you believe one single word of it?

I believe that it's already too late. But let's hope! What else do have left but hope that the world will finally wake up? If they don't wake up now, it's game over for sure!

In two months we will be able to start the process of knowing how much of that is Blah Blah and how much is real.
But it will take years to know how many of the promises, pledges and lofty sentiments turn into real action.

And even then it will probably (but perhaps not) take even more years to find out to what extent it is even now too late for how many species and how many of us: and where the best and worst end result leaves us you, as by then I may well be dead.

[Jim Hunt]

Maybe he's channeling Arthur C. Clarke. In the ending of Clarke's 'Childhoods End', the Earth was destroyed.

That thought had occurred to me as well. At least in the story book humanity had evolved a lot by then. Somehow I don't think there's time for that now.

[Freegrass]

Where is Hollywood? They've been making us scared of Islamic terrorists for so many years now. Before that it was Russians we had to be scared of. And the government can never be trusted. But who's ever seen a Hollywood movie that scared us of climate change? And then I don't mean the ridiculous movies like "The Day After Tomorrow"!

We need something good to convince people about the dangers of climate change, but it's not coming, is?

Great quote Vox! So true...

[Jim Hunt]

Great quote Vox! So true...

You seem to be singing the praises of BoJo's speech writer?

[Freegrass]

Great quote Vox! So true...

You seem to be singing the praises of BoJo's speech writer?

Wasn't that a quote from Toby Ord?
Anyway... I didn't read what Blo Jo had to say... But I do get a feeling Great Britain is sending out a message that Glasgow needs to be a succes... So lets see what happens. Like I said... I have hope, even though it's probably in vain...

[Jim Hunt]

Wasn't that a quote from Toby Ord?

I assume Toby's contribution was just the first line in quotation marks?

In any event, what with one thing and another I've now gone into virtual print quoting Toby, BoJo, Paul Homewood and the Daily Mail all in the same article!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/09/arctic-sea-ice-disinformation-and-cop26/

Today we cannot help but think that there are those who would prefer that humanity did not grow up.

Let’s take a closer look at the current state of the cryodenialosphere, shall we?

[gerontocrat]

& this is what one analyst on the Beeb has to say...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58657887

Analysis box by Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst

Boris Johnson is fashioning himself as a leader on climate change.

He has set a benchmark by phasing out sales of most new conventional vehicles by 2030.

The international alliance he's formed to get rid of coal power is gathering support - though not yet enough.

And by setting aggressive targets to cut carbon emissions overall (78% by 2035) he is encouraging others to follow.

Yet, in his own backyard, the prime minister is stumbling.

He previously pledged "never to be lagging on lagging". But his plan for insulating homes is badly delayed - along with other vital initiatives on issues including aviation, farming and financing the low carbon revolution.

Recent research showed his government had imposed less than a quarter of the policies needed to clean up the economy.

And some policies - like not opposing a coal mine in Cumbria,cutting taxes on flying and building HS2 - will send emissions up when they are supposed to be going down.

[Jim Hunt]

& this is what one analyst on the Beeb has to say...

& this is what I had to say to Roger Harrabin:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1441131502658486272

My first thought was that BoJo's speech writer must be trolling him:

"The infantile belief that the world was made for our gratification and pleasure and we combine this narcissism with an assumption of our own immortality."

Boris to a tee? And Kermit the Frog!

If the significance of my final sentence eludes you watch the video of Boris's UN speech, available at my GWC link above. 19:30 or thereabouts.

[Jim Hunt]

My Arctic alter ego's response to the latest missive from the COP26 powers that be:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1441690150547820554

Allegedly "We must act now".

[Freegrass]

My Arctic alter ego's response to the latest missive from the COP26 powers that be:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1441690150547820554

Allegedly "We must act now".

I had to post a reply... 

I'm sure there is a planet B. We just don't have the spaceship yet to get there. 😅

[Jim Hunt]

Now this is a speech:



Mia Mottley invoking the spirit of Robert Nesta Marley rather than Kermit the Frog's Xmas carol:

Get up, stand up!
Stand up for your rights!
Get up, stand up!
Don't give up the fight!

[gerontocrat]

Someone is not impressed by those who presume to govern us.....

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/blah-greta-thunberg-leaders-climate-crisis-co2-emissions
‘Blah, blah, blah’: Greta Thunberg lambasts leaders over climate crisis

Exclusive: Activist says there are many fine words but the science does not lie – CO2 emissions are still rising

Greta Thunberg has excoriated global leaders over their promises to address the climate emergency, dismissing them as “blah, blah, blah”.

She quoted statements by Boris Johnson: “This is not some expensive, politically correct, green act of bunny hugging”, and Narendra Modi: “Fighting climate change calls for innovation, cooperation and willpower” but said the science did not lie.

Carbon emissions are on track to rise by 16% by 2030, according to the UN, rather than fall by half, which is the cut needed to keep global heating under the internationally agreed limit of 1.5C.

“Build back better. Blah, blah, blah. Green economy. Blah blah blah. Net zero by 2050. Blah, blah, blah,” she said in a speech to the Youth4Climate summit in Milan, Italy, on Tuesday. “This is all we hear from our so-called leaders. Words that sound great but so far have not led to action. Our hopes and ambitions drown in their empty promises.”

“Of course we need constructive dialogue,” said Thunberg, whose solo climate strike in 2018 sparked a movement of millions of young climate protesters. “But they’ve now had 30 years of blah, blah, blah and where has that led us? We can still turn this around – it is entirely possible. It will take immediate, drastic annual emission reductions. But not if things go on like today. Our leaders’ intentional lack of action is a betrayal toward all present and future generations.”

Research published on Monday showed that children born today would experience many times more extreme heatwaves and other climate disasters over their lifetimes than their grandparents, even if countries fulfil their current emissions pledges.

Officials from the UN, UK and US said Cop26 would not produce the breakthrough needed to fulfil the aspirations of the Paris agreement but the broader goal of the conference – that of “keeping 1.5C alive” – was still possible.

[gerontocrat]

Who can blame Greta Thunberg losing patience when...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/28/eu-lawmakers-vote-prolong-fossil-fuel-gas-subsidies
EU lawmakers vote to prolong fossil fuel gas subsidies until 2027

Campaigners voice dismay after rule permitting gas pipelines where energy is mixed with hydrogen


The committee also voted to allow natural gas projects, such as pipelines and storage facilities, to be eligible for special status that will speed up their approval. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

[kassy]

I hope it´s not just Greta is losing patience. 

[Freegrass]

Who can blame Greta Thunberg losing patience when...

This is totally insane. I agree with the last paragraph:

Green campaigners do not share this optimism. They would reserve scarce and expensive renewable hydrogen for industries that are difficult to decarbonise, such as fertilisers. Mixing hydrogen with natural gas was like “mixing champagne with table wine,” said Connolly. “You want to use [hydrogen] where it is most valuable, otherwise you put a huge amount of costs on everyone”.

[Freegrass]

How long did it take to convert entire economies to war economies? A few months? Apparently we can change on a dime when it comes to killing other people, but not when it comes to saving the planet...

Full speech. MUST WATCH! 

[kassy]

So the pre-talks go like this:

Climate change: Stop smoke and mirrors, rich nations told

Rich countries' plans to curb carbon are "smoke and mirrors" and must be urgently improved, say poorer nations.

Ministers meeting here in Milan at the final UN session before the Glasgow COP26 climate conference heard that some progress was being made.

But officials from developing countries demanded tougher targets for cutting carbon emissions and more cash to combat climate change.

...

Around 50 ministers from a range of countries met here to try to overcome some significant hurdles before world leaders gather in Glasgow in November.

But for extremely vulnerable countries to a changing climate the priority is more ambitious carbon reductions from the rich, to preserve the 1.5C temperature target set by the 2015 Paris agreement.

Scientists have warned that allowing the world temperatures to rise more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is highly dangerous.

An assessment of the promises made so far to cut carbon suggests that the world is on track for around 2.7C.

Ministers from developing countries say this is just not acceptable - they are already experiencing significant impacts on their economies with warming currently just over 1C.

...

Some delegates felt that richer countries aren't sufficiently engaged on the issue of 1.5C, because they are wealthy enough to adapt to the changes.

"They don't care about 1.5C because if there's sea level rise, they have the means to build sea walls, and they are just remaining there in their high walls of comfort," said Tosi Mpanu Mpanu, from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

more:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58774786

Last paragraph: they (as in our politicians thinking money or tech will get us out of problems) still do not get it. We can not all built seawalls and at those temperature levels the more important worry will be the food supply.

[Shared Humanity]

It's still weeks away. (Oct 31st) I'm sure there will be more coverage in the run up

The important thing is adding up the pledges post event - will it be enough?

This focus on setting temperature increase targets (1.5C vs. 2.0C vs. 3.0C vs. ??) or CO2 reduction pledges (carbon neutral by 2040 vs. 2050 vs. 2060 vs. ??) is nothing more than a monumental distraction...mental masturbation if you will.

We need to focus all of our efforts and resources on just doing it, a Marshall Plan that is formulated and executed by the best engineering and operation's minds on the planet. This worldwide effort needs to simply ignore the economic system that drives growth in energy consumption (and growth in everything else). We are at war. We need to understand that hundreds of billions (actually trillions) of stranded assets will drive thousands (tens of thousands?) of companies out of business. This will wreck the financial system whose very existence depends on those assets generating income out into the future. The wreckage of the financial system will destroy the wealth of individuals across the planet.

Just Do It!

[gerontocrat]

If the USA is not seen to take the lead at COP26, then........

And this requires a dose of real action - namely, to pass the Budget Bill in which is contained the funding to reduce US CO2 emissions.

And just one man can say yes or no - not the President but the Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. At the moment it looks more like a no than a yes.

Why? COAL

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/30/joe-manchin-climate-coal-baron-stocks
Joe Manchin, America’s climate decider-in-chief, is a coal baron



Joe Manchin (left) poses with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh in August, during a tour of a coal mine in Dallas, West Virginia. Photograph: AP

Joe Manchin has never been this famous. People around the world now know that the West Virginia Democrat is the essential 50th vote in the US Senate that president Joe Biden needs to pass his agenda into law. That includes Biden’s climate agenda. Which doesn’t bode well for defusing the climate emergency, given Manchin’s longstanding opposition to ambitious climate action.

It turns out that the Senator wielding this awesome power – America’s climate decider-in-chief, one might call him – has a massive climate conflict of interest. Joe Manchin, investigative journalism has revealed, is a modern-day coal baron.

Financial records detailed by reporter Alex Kotch for the Center for Media and Democracy and published in the Guardian show that Manchin makes roughly half a million dollars a year in dividends from millions of dollars of coal company stock he owns. The stock is held in Enersystems, Inc, a company Manchin started in 1988 and later gave to his son, Joseph, to run.

Coal has been the primary driver of global warming since coal began fueling the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain 250 years ago. Today, the science is clear: coal must be phased out, starting immediately and around the world, to keep the 1.5C target within reach.

Scientists estimate that 90% of today’s coal reserves must be left in the ground. No new coal-fired power plants should be built. Existing plants should quickly shift to solar and wind, augmented by reducing electricity demand with better energy efficiency in buildings and machinery (which also saves money and produces more jobs).

This is not a vision that gladdens a coal baron’s heart. The idea of eliminating fossil fuels is “very, very disturbing”, Manchin said in July when specifics of Biden’s climate agenda surfaced. Behind the scenes, Manchin reportedly has objected to Biden’s plan to penalize electric utilities that don’t quit coal as fast as science dictates.

The White House is not selling it this way, but the huge budget bill now under feverish negotiations on Capitol Hill is as much as anything a climate bill. The clean electricity performance program and other measures in this budget reconciliation bill are the core of Biden’s plan to slash US climate pollution in half by 2030, a reduction science says is necessary to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C and avoid cataclysmic climate change.

Apparently keen to delay a vote on the bill – but not on the bipartisan infrastructure bill containing billions in subsidies for climate harming programs like making hydrogen from methane – Manchin asked on CNN, “What is the urgency?” of passing the larger bill. Like ExxonMobil, the senator appears to have jettisoned outright climate denial in favor of its more presentable, but no less lethal, cousin: climate delay.

Soon Biden will join other world leaders at the Cop26 UN climate summit in Glasgow, described as a “now or never” moment for efforts to preserve a livable planet. Biden and his international climate envoy, John Kerry, have been leaning on other nations, especially China, to step up their commitments. But Biden can only press that case successfully in Glasgow if Congress passes the budget bill, and with its climate provisions intact.

That will depend in no small part on Manchin, who as the Democrats’ 50th vote in the Senate now holds what amounts to veto power over US climate policy.

It’s not illegal for Senator Manchin to own millions of dollars of coal stock – indeed, it illustrates the old saw that the real scandal in Washington is what’s legal – but it certainly raises questions about his impartiality on climate policy.

[Freegrass]

It's still weeks away. (Oct 31st) I'm sure there will be more coverage in the run up

The important thing is adding up the pledges post event - will it be enough?

This focus on setting temperature increase targets (1.5C vs. 2.0C vs. 3.0C vs. ??) or CO2 reduction pledges (carbon neutral by 2040 vs. 2050 vs. 2060 vs. ??) is nothing more than a monumental distraction...mental masturbation if you will.

We need to focus all of our efforts and resources on just doing it, a Marshall Plan that is formulated and executed by the best engineering and operation's minds on the planet. This worldwide effort needs to simply ignore the economic system that drives growth in energy consumption (and growth in everything else). We are at war. We need to understand that hundreds of billions (actually trillions) of stranded assets will drive thousands (tens of thousands?) of companies out of business. This will wreck the financial system whose very existence depends on those assets generating income out into the future. The wreckage of the financial system will destroy the wealth of individuals across the planet.

Just Do It!

Amen! We made many things that were killing us in the past illegal. So lets make fossil fuels illegal ASAP. All the technology for alternatives is available. So lets Nike it! JUST DO IT!

[vox_mundi]

Religious leaders plead for rapid climate action at COP26
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/4/religious-leaders-plead-for-rapid-climate-action-ahead-of-cop26

Dozens of religious leaders appealed to governments to commit to ambitious targets at the upcoming UN climate conference, which has been described by scientists as the last chance to act meaningfully to halt global warming before it is too late.

The call for urgent climate action was echoed on Monday by imams, rabbis, patriarchs and reverends who shared how their faith traditions interpreted the emergency, many insisting religion and science must act together to save the planet.

“Faith and Science: An Appeal for COP26” was the latest initiative to rally momentum and outrage before the October 31-November 12 summit in Glasgow, Scotland that experts say is a make-or-break chance to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

... “I call on all young people, regardless of their religion, to be ready to fight against any action that damages the environment or increases the climate crisis,” said Grand Imam Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb of the Al-Azhar Mosque in Cairo, Egypt.

... “If one nation sinks, we all sink,” said Rajwant Singh, a Sikh leader from the United States.

... “Water is the father, air is the teacher, and Earth is our common mother. Just as we don’t dishonour our mother, father, and teacher – why would we dishonour these gifts from our creator?”

... “We have inherited a garden; we must not leave a desert to our children,” said an appeal signed by those who gathered before handing it over to the head of the COP26 conference, Alok Sharma.

[kassy]

Post unrelated to COP26 removed.

[kassy]

Historical climate emissions reveal responsibility of big polluting nations

Six of top 10, including China and Russia, yet to show ambition on emissions cuts before Cop26

Analysis of the total carbon dioxide emissions of countries since 1850 has revealed the nations with the greatest historical responsibility for the climate emergency. But six of the top 10 have yet to make ambitious new pledges to cut their emissions before the crucial UN Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow in November.

The six include China, Russia and Brazil, which come only behind the US as the biggest cumulative polluters. The UK is eighth and Canada is 10th. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries and the cumulative amount of CO2 emitted is closely linked to the 1.2C of heating the world has already seen.

...

The analysis, produced by Carbon Brief, includes, for the first time, emissions from the destruction of forests and other changes in land use alongside fossil fuels and cement production. This pushes Brazil and Indonesia into the top 10, unlike when fossil fuel emissions alone are considered.

The data also shows the world has now used 85% of the CO2 budget that would give a 50% chance of limiting heating to 1.5C, the danger limit agreed in Paris in 2015.

The US, Germany, Britain and Canada are the only top 10 nations to have made pledges of deeper emissions cuts in advance of Cop26. While the US has said it will double its climate finance contribution to developing nations, some still see this as too little from the world’s biggest economy.

Russia has made a new pledge, but it allows for emissions to rise, and the Climate Action Tracker (Cat) group classes it as “critically insufficient” compared with the Paris targets. China and India have yet to make any new pledges, while those of Brazil, Indonesia and Japan do not improve on previous pledges.

“There’s a direct link between the 2,500bn tonnes of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere since 1850 and the 1.2C of warming we’re already experiencing,” said Simon Evans at Carbon Brief. “Our new analysis puts a vital spotlight on the people and countries most responsible for heating our planet.

more:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/05/historical-climate-emissions-big-polluting-nations

[Jim Hunt]

Historical climate emissions reveal responsibility of big polluting nations

Here's the associated video:

[gerontocrat]

Even the International Monetary Fund is having a go at the Fossil Fuel Industries on explicit and implied subsidies.

Trouble is, with fossil fuel prices currently going through the roof (as posted today on the coal & oil & gas threads) and likely to stay high for at least this winter, will the G20 countries be enthusiastic on adding upward pressure on fossil fuel prices? or will they feel the need to kick the can down the road, yet again?

I guess leaving necessary decisions to the last possible moment leaves one at the mercy of current short-term crises.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/06/fossil-fuel-industry-subsidies-of-11m-dollars-a-minute-imf-finds
Fossil fuel industry gets subsidies of $11m a minute, IMF finds

Trillions of dollars a year are ‘adding fuel to the fire’ of the climate crisis, experts say

The fossil fuel industry benefits from subsidies of $11m every minute, according to analysis by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF found the production and burning of coal, oil and gas was subsidised by $5.9tn in 2020, with not a single country pricing all its fuels sufficiently to reflect their full supply and environmental costs. Experts said the subsidies were “adding fuel to the fire” of the climate crisis, at a time when rapid reductions in carbon emissions were urgently needed.

Explicit subsidies that cut fuel prices accounted for 8% of the total and tax breaks another 6%. The biggest factors were failing to make polluters pay for the deaths and poor health caused by air pollution (42%) and for the heatwaves and other impacts of global heating (29%).

Setting fossil fuel prices that reflect their true cost would cut global CO2 emissions by over a third, the IMF analysts said. This would be a big step towards meeting the internationally agreed 1.5C target. Keeping this target within reach is a key goal of the UN Cop26 climate summit in November.

Agreeing rules for carbon markets, which enable the proper pricing of pollution, is another Cop26 goal. “Fossil fuel price reform could not be timelier,” the IMF researchers said. The ending of fossil fuel subsidies would also prevent nearly a million deaths a year from dirty air and raise trillions of dollars for governments, they said.

“There would be enormous benefits from reform, so there’s an enormous amount at stake,” said Ian Parry, the lead author of the IMF report. “Some countries are reluctant to raise energy prices because they think it will harm the poor. But holding down fossil fuel prices is a highly inefficient way to help the poor, because most of the benefits accrue to wealthier households. It would be better to target resources towards helping poor and vulnerable people directly.”

With 50 countries committed to net zero emissions by mid-century and more than 60 carbon pricing schemes around the world, there are some encouraging signs, Parry said: “But we’re still just scratching the surface really, and there’s an awful long way to go.”

The G20 agreed in 2009 to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies and in 2016, the G7 set a deadline of 2025, but little progress has been made. In July, a report showed that the G20 countries had subsidised fossil fuels by trillions of dollars since 2015, the year the Paris climate deal was reached.

“To stabilise global temperatures we must urgently move away from fossil fuels instead of adding fuel to the fire,” said Mike Coffin, senior analyst at the thinktank Carbon Tracker. “It’s critical that governments stop propping up an industry that is in decline, and look to accelerate the low-carbon energy transition, and our future, instead.

“As host of Cop26, the UK government could play an important global leadership role by ending all subsidies for fossil fuels, as well as halting new North Sea licensing rounds,” he said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in May that the development of new oil and gas fields must stop this year to meet climate goals.

The comprehensive IMF report found that prices were at least 50% below their true costs for 99% of coal, 52% of diesel and 47% of natural gas in 2020. Five countries were responsible for two-thirds of the subsidies: China, the US, Russia, India and Japan. Without action, subsidies will rise to $6.4tn in 2025, the IMF said.

Proper pricing for fossil fuels would cut emissions by, for example, encouraging electricity generators to switch from coal to renewable energy and making electric cars an even cheaper option for motorists. International cooperation is important, Parry said, to allay fears that countries could lose competitiveness if their fossil fuel prices were higher.

“The IMF report is a sobering reading, pointing to one of the major defects of the global economy,” said Maria Pastukhova, at the thinktank e3g. “The IEA’s net-zero roadmap projects that $5tn is necessary by 2030 to put the world on the pathway to a climate-safe world. It is maddening to realise the much-needed change could start happening now, if not for governments’ entanglement with the fossil fuels industry in so many major economies.”

“Fossil fuel subsidies have been a major stumbling block in the G20 process for years,” she said. “Now all eyes are on the G20 leaders’ summit in late October.”

Ipek Gençsü, at the Overseas Development Institute, said: “[Subsidy reform] requires support for vulnerable consumers who will be impacted by rising costs, as well for workers in industries which simply have to shut down. It also requires information campaigns, showing how the savings will be redistributed to society in the form of healthcare, education and other social services. Many people oppose subsidy reform because they see it solely as governments taking something away, and not giving back.”

The G20 countries emit almost 80% of global greenhouse gases. More than 600 global companies in the We Mean Business coalition, including Unilever, Ikea, Aviva, Siemens and Volvo Cars, recently urged G20 leaders to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025.

[kassy]

Setting fossil fuel prices that reflect their true cost would cut global CO2 emissions by over a third, the IMF analysts said.

Sounds like an excellent idea.

The G20 agreed in 2009 to phase out “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies and in 2016, the G7 set a deadline of 2025, but little progress has been made. In July, a report showed that the G20 countries had subsidised fossil fuels by trillions of dollars since 2015, the year the Paris climate deal was reached.

But then more BAU.

No wonder we get results such as this:
The authors indicated that young people feel that governments are lying to them, betraying their generation, and failing to protect them. These feelings are held by more than half of the people surveyed. Only around one-third of young people think that governments are acting in line with climate science, and nearly 70% say governments can’t be trusted.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/10/young-adults-worldwide-have-blunt-message-for-governments-we-dont-trust-you/

Seeing the list of 5 big countries i don´t have great expectations.

[gerontocrat]

Methane emissions- supposed to be a big thing at COP26

Despite all the blah blah about reducing CH4 emissions over many years, reaching a new crescendo in advance of COP26, the signs still point to an accelerating upward trend.

click image to enlarge

[kassy]

Another glorious win for Team Green as the EU bribes Turkey into the Paris pact just in time... 

Europe offered Turkey cash to join Paris climate accord

Germany, France, UK and two development banks involved in deal with Ankara.

..

The parliament in Ankara ratified the deal late Wednesday night, ending years of refusal to take the final legal step to join the international agreement to limit global warming it signed in 2015.

It came after a deal in principle to provide Turkey with financial support to clean up its emissions, which was struck between Ankara and officials from France, Germany, the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, according to two people who described aspects of the discussions. They would not confirm whether the governments themselves were the source of the funding, or the development banks. The details of the deal would be announced "in a timely manner," one said.

...

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-turkey-join-paris-agreement-climate-money/

[Jim Hunt]

Via Her Majesty's (alleged) Government web site:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/adapt-or-die-says-environment-agency

Adapt or die, says Environment Agency

With less than three weeks to COP26, Environment Agency warns that adaptation – becoming resilient to the effects of climate change – is just as vital as mitigation.

The climate emergency can only be successfully tackled through greater focus on adapting to the inevitable climate impacts that we are already seeing, the Environment Agency has warned today (13 October) as it urged world leaders to step up to that challenge at COP26.

In a report to Government, the agency has warned of more extreme weather leading to increased flooding and drought, sea level rises of up to 78cm by the 2080s, and public water supplies needing more than 3.4 billion extra litres of water per day by 2050. It has urged governments, businesses and society to embrace and invest in adaptation, rather than living with the costs of inaction.

With COP26 less than three weeks away, it has welcomed the UK Government’s focus on adaptation as well as mitigation, and the fact that climate adaptation is one of the Summit’s four key goals, but urged that more action is needed at a global level to protect the billions of lives and livelihoods that are at risk.

[kassy]

Climate change: Carbon emissions from rich countries rose rapidly in 2021

Carbon emissions are rebounding strongly and are rising across the world's 20 richest nations, according to a new study.

The Climate Transparency Report says that CO2 will go up by 4% across the G20 group this year, having dropped 6% in 2020 due to the pandemic.

China, India and Argentina are set to exceed their 2019 emissions levels.

The authors say that the continued use of fossil fuels is undermining efforts to rein in temperatures.

With just two weeks left until the critical COP26 climate conference opens in Glasgow, the task facing negotiators is stark.

...

The G20 group is responsible for around 75% of global emissions, which fell significantly last year as economies were closed down in response to Covid-19.

But this year's rebound is being powered by fossil fuel, especially coal.

According to the report, compiled by 16 research organisations and environmental campaign groups, coal use across the G20 is projected to rise by 5% this year.

This is mainly due to China who are responsible for around 60% of the rise, but increases in coal are also taking place in the US and India.

Coal use in China has surged with the country experiencing increased demand for energy as the global economy has recovered.

Coal prices are up nearly 200% from a year ago.

This in turn has seen power cuts as it became uneconomical for coal-fired electricity plants generate electricity in recent months.

With the Chinese government announcing a change in policy this week to allow these power plants to charge market rates for their energy, the expectation is that this will spur even more coal use this year.

When it comes to gas, the Climate Transparency Report finds that use is up by 12% across the G20 in the 2015-2020 period.

While political leaders have promised that the global recovery from Covid should have a green focus, the financial commitments made by rich nations don't bear this out.

Of the $1.8tn that has been earmarked for recovery spending, just $300bn will go on green projects.

To put that figure into context, it almost matches the $298bn spent by G20 countries in subsidising fossil fuel industries in the year to August 2021.

etc

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58897805

[NeilT]

China has announced plans to increase its reliance on coal as the energy crisis deepens, threatening a huge blow to the UK's ambitions for a landmark global agreement on phasing out the resource at COP26 climate change summit later this month. China has been hit hard by the energy crisis currently gripping the planet, with thousands of homes and factories plunged into darkness in rolling blackouts over recent weeks.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1505981/china-energy-coal-power-uk-cop26-evg

Clearly they feel they simply can't get to renewable switch over fast enough for them to weather this energy crisis.

Not good news either way.

[Freegrass]

Monarch admits she is ‘irritated’ by world leaders who ‘talk but don’t DO’ in a rare public intervention on climate change ahead of COP summit just hours after William's blast for billionaires over space tourism

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10094017/Queen-slams-world-leaders-not-committing-climate-summit.html