PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll

[Juan C. García]

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year       Volume
          (10^3 km3)
2000       11.08
2001       12.28
2002       10.85
2003       10.28
2004       10.04
2005         9.28
2006         9.11
2007         6.53
2008         7.25
2009         6.92
2010         4.74
2011         4.48
2012         3.79
2013         5.48
2014         6.97
2015         5.85
2016         4.53
2017         4.68
2018         5.08
2019         4.19
2020         4.16

From lowest to highest:

[Juan C. García]

4.00-4.50 (10³ km³) range.

[oren]

Voted 3.75-4.25, each year that passes brings us higher probabilities of bad outcomes. The last two years fell both in this range and 2012 as well, as good a guess as any.

[Brigantine]

4.00 - 4.50

More precise SWAG: 4.35 ±0.60 @ 60% weight, ±1.9 @ 40% weight

Factors considered:
1) Where 2019 and 2020 ended up (4.19, 4.16), and Mid-March / Mid-May PIOMAS anomalies compared to those years. (might review this if June data has a surprise)
2) 2011-2020 linear trend line projects 4.58 ±1.87 (as a reference for reversion to the mean)
and not really reading seasonal indicators too much.

Assumed bin chances: (>5.50) 5%; 2%; 4%; 8%; 17%; 23%; 19%; 10%; 4%; 3%; 2%; 3% (<3.00)
So I'm guessing 42% I'll be right, 69% within 1 bin, 81% within 2 bins. And even expressing this much confidence feels daring to me.

[Paddy]

4.25 to 4.75 for now. I see this makes me the most optimistic guesser so far on the forum... But it's where the 5 year average sits, and average remaining loss would give us an even higher outcome of 4.92.

[KenB]

3.75 - 4.25

[Stephan]

I went for 4.0-4.5 k km³

[Aluminium]

4.0-4.5

[PragmaticAntithesis]

4,000-4,500km³

I fail to see how this year will be worse than last year with the Canadian, CAB and Pacific regions doing so well. On the other hand, I would be surprised if this year finishes above 4.5k with the Siberian and Atlantic regions doing so poorly.

[gerontocrat]

Some background data

I attach the September Monthly average graph based on average volume loss from now. That produces a September monthly average of 4,785 km3. This is 742 km3 above the long-term linear trend value of 4,043 km3.

It's all because of the April maximum being 550 km3 above trend followed by a slow volume loss so far. Remember, this a poll about what the PIOMAS system will say, so arguments about whether PIOMAS overestimates volume range between irrelevant and misleading.

At the minimum, it is the High Arctic volume that matters. As of May 31 High Arctic volume is greater than the 2010's average, while Peripheral seas volume is below the 2010's average.

The Central Arctic Basin, that will hold most of the remaining volume, has at May 31 below 2010's average volume, to my surprise.

I hope this will leave you as confused as I am on making my vote..

[Alumril]

Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
With a potential double dip la nina, I think the melt this year will not be as severe as the last couple of years.

[Juan C. García]

If we analyze the values that we had on the first 8 days of June, the year 2021 seems to be as normal as the average of 2010-2020... If the melt does not happen on 2021, it will happen on the following years.

So, I am changing my vote to 3.75-4.25K km³.

One day left to vote or change your vote. 

[gerontocrat]

I am going for 4.00 to 4.50 because melt will do a catch up because I told it to.

[slow wing]

Voted 3.75-4.25, each year that passes brings us higher probabilities of bad outcomes. The last two years fell both in this range and 2012 as well, as good a guess as any.

Same. Haven't followed it so closely this year but the Atlantic side is all cracked up as we have begun the weeks of maximum insolation so I think more than the usual amount of energy will be deposited there and that is the weak region this year.

[Alumril]

With Wipneus calling the minimum at 4.64, I'm claiming the win.
Maybe I should bet money on this next year, that way I'll be guaranteed to be wrong.

[Brigantine]

What will PIOMAS 2021 Arctic sea ice volume Sept. average be?

What's normally the difference between the minimum and Sept. average?
In any case, with my 4.00-4.50 vote I'm too low, though I gave 4.50-4.75 a 17% chance too.