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What will PIOMAS 2021 Arctic sea ice volume Sept. average be?

Above 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
1 (2.4%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
2 (4.9%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
9 (22%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
15 (36.6%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
8 (19.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
2 (4.9%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
2 (4.9%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
2 (4.9%)

Total Members Voted: 41

Voting closed: June 10, 2021, 11:25:30 PM

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll  (Read 775 times)

Juan C. García

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PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« on: May 31, 2021, 11:25:30 PM »
Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year       Volume
          (10^3 km3)
2000       11.08
2001       12.28
2002       10.85
2003       10.28
2004       10.04
2005         9.28
2006         9.11
2007         6.53
2008         7.25
2009         6.92
2010         4.74
2011         4.48
2012         3.79
2013         5.48
2014         6.97
2015         5.85
2016         4.53
2017         4.68
2018         5.08
2019         4.19
2020         4.16

From lowest to highest:
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2021, 11:38:55 PM »
4.00-4.50 (103 km3) range.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2021, 02:43:13 AM »
Voted 3.75-4.25, each year that passes brings us higher probabilities of bad outcomes. The last two years fell both in this range and 2012 as well, as good a guess as any.

Brigantine

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2021, 10:16:10 AM »
4.00 - 4.50

More precise SWAG: 4.35 ±0.60 @ 60% weight, ±1.9 @ 40% weight

Factors considered:
1) Where 2019 and 2020 ended up (4.19, 4.16), and Mid-March / Mid-May PIOMAS anomalies compared to those years. (might review this if June data has a surprise)
2) 2011-2020 linear trend line projects 4.58 ±1.87 (as a reference for reversion to the mean)
and not really reading seasonal indicators too much.

Assumed bin chances: (>5.50) 5%; 2%; 4%; 8%; 17%; 23%; 19%; 10%; 4%; 3%; 2%; 3% (<3.00)
So I'm guessing 42% I'll be right, 69% within 1 bin, 81% within 2 bins. And even expressing this much confidence feels daring to me.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2021, 11:44:33 AM by Brigantine »

Paddy

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2021, 01:56:34 PM »
4.25 to 4.75 for now. I see this makes me the most optimistic guesser so far on the forum... But it's where the 5 year average sits, and average remaining loss would give us an even higher outcome of 4.92.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2021, 07:00:51 PM by Paddy »

KenB

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2021, 04:16:25 PM »
3.75 - 4.25
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Stephan

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2021, 09:27:44 PM »
I went for 4.0-4.5 k km³
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Aluminium

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2021, 03:22:10 PM »
4.0-4.5

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2021, 06:32:39 PM »
4,000-4,500km3

I fail to see how this year will be worse than last year with the Canadian, CAB and Pacific regions doing so well. On the other hand, I would be surprised if this year finishes above 4.5k with the Siberian and Atlantic regions doing so poorly.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

gerontocrat

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2021, 09:39:26 PM »
Some background data

I attach the September Monthly average graph based on average volume loss from now. That produces a September monthly average of 4,785 km3. This is 742 km3 above the long-term linear trend value of 4,043 km3.

It's all because of the April maximum being 550 km3 above trend followed by a slow volume loss so far. Remember, this a poll about what the PIOMAS system will say, so arguments about whether PIOMAS overestimates volume range between irrelevant and misleading.

At the minimum, it is the High Arctic volume that matters. As of May 31 High Arctic volume is greater than the 2010's average, while Peripheral seas volume is below the 2010's average.

The Central Arctic Basin, that will hold most of the remaining volume, has at May 31 below 2010's average volume, to my surprise.

I hope this will leave you as confused as I am on making my vote..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alumril

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2021, 02:15:52 PM »
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
With a potential double dip la nina, I think the melt this year will not be as severe as the last couple of years.

Juan C. García

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2021, 09:10:32 PM »
If we analyze the values that we had on the first 8 days of June, the year 2021 seems to be as normal as the average of 2010-2020... If the melt does not happen on 2021, it will happen on the following years.

So, I am changing my vote to 3.75-4.25K km3.

One day left to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2021, 12:54:15 AM »
I am going for 4.00 to 4.50 because melt will do a catch up because I told it to.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

slow wing

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Re: PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2021, 03:39:40 AM »
Voted 3.75-4.25, each year that passes brings us higher probabilities of bad outcomes. The last two years fell both in this range and 2012 as well, as good a guess as any.

Same. Haven't followed it so closely this year but the Atlantic side is all cracked up as we have begun the weeks of maximum insolation so I think more than the usual amount of energy will be deposited there and that is the weak region this year.