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Author Topic: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance  (Read 847 times)

jai mitchell

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NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« on: June 17, 2021, 08:46:34 PM »
Scientists at NASA and NOAA compared data from two independent measurements. NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) suite of satellite sensors measure how much energy enters and leaves Earth's system. In addition, data from a global array of ocean floats, called Argo, enable an accurate estimate of the rate at which the world’s oceans are heating up. Since approximately 90 percent of the excess energy from an energy imbalance ends up in the ocean, the overall trends of incoming and outgoing radiation should broadly agree with changes in ocean heat content.




https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley/joint-nasa-noaa-study-finds-earths-energy-imbalance-has-doubled

Paper here:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047

Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate

Quote
Abstract
Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a relatively small (presently ∼0.3%) difference between global mean solar radiation absorbed and thermal infrared radiation emitted to space. EEI is set by natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and the climate system's response to those forcings. It is also influenced by internal variations within the climate system. Most of EEI warms the ocean; the remainder heats the land, melts ice, and warms the atmosphere. We show that independent satellite and in situ observations each yield statistically indistinguishable decadal increases in EEI from mid-2005 to mid-2019 of 0.50±0.47 W m-2 decade-1 (5%-95% confidence interval). This trend is primarily due to an increase in absorbed solar radiation associated with decreased reflection by clouds and sea-ice and a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to increases in trace gases and water vapor. These changes combined exceed a positive trend in OLR due to increasing global mean temperatures.

In 2015 I was remarking how the previous negative PDO was very likely due to SE Asia aerosol emissions (which were being rapidly reduced at that time).

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/01/piomas-january-2015.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb07e0a090970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb07e0a090970d

In concert with that trying to push back against the concept that Sea Ice Loss was a function of natural veriability.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1920.msg109831.html#msg109831

And trying to plot recent analyses to see where we were going. Looks like I was about 4 years early on this one.
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jai mitchell

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2021, 08:53:43 PM »
It is interesting that this paper seems to also support Andrew Dessler's work on "pattern effect" for increased forcing on the planet as the earth warms due to changes in cloud patterns.

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jai mitchell

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2021, 09:50:20 PM »
It should be noted that the original meme of 400,000 Hiroshima bomb equivalent energy per day added to the Earth was based on the Hansen & Sato (2010) estimate of Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI).  Their estimate was 0.6 Watts per meter squared of energy imbalance.

Hence, since we are now at 1.2 Watts per meter squared, the amount of additional heat added to the Earth each day is equivalent to 800,000 Hiroshima bombs.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2021, 10:09:45 PM »
Jia et al. (2021) indicates that previous consensus climate science's interpretation of satellite readings significantly underestimated how negative feedback is from aerosol-cloud interactions. 

Jia, H., Ma, X., Yu, F. et al. Significant underestimation of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions derived from satellite-based methods. Nat Commun 12, 3649 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23888-1

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23888-1

Abstract: "Satellite-based estimates of radiative forcing by aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) are consistently smaller than those from global models, hampering accurate projections of future climate change. Here we show that the discrepancy can be substantially reduced by correcting sampling biases induced by inherent limitations of satellite measurements, which tend to artificially discard the clouds with high cloud fraction. Those missed clouds exert a stronger cooling effect, and are more sensitive to aerosol perturbations. By accounting for the sampling biases, the magnitude of RFaci (from −0.38 to −0.59 W m−2) increases by 55 % globally (133 % over land and 33 % over ocean). Notably, the RFaci further increases to −1.09 W m−2 when switching total aerosol optical depth (AOD) to fine-mode AOD that is a better proxy for CCN than AOD. In contrast to previous weak satellite-based RFaci, the improved one substantially increases (especially over land), resolving a major difference with models."
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Juan C. García

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2021, 10:17:47 PM »
For the non-technical reader:

Quote
Earth is now trapping an ‘unprecedented’ amount of heat, NASA says
New research shows that the amount of heat the planet traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to more rapidly warming oceans, air and land
By Tik Root
June 16, 2021 at 3:00 p.m. CDT

The Earth takes in about 240 watts per square meter of energy from the sun. At the beginning of the study period, in 2005, it was radiating back out about 239.5 of those watts — creating a positive imbalance of about half a watt. By the end, in 2019, that gap had nearly doubled to about 1 full watt per square meter.

Oceans absorb most of that heat, about 90 percent. When researchers compared satellite data to temperature readings from a system of ocean sensors, they found a similar pattern. The agreement between the data sets surpassed expectations, Loeb said, calling it the “nail in the coffin” for the imbalance results.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/16/earth-heat-imbalance-warming/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jai mitchell

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2021, 08:50:55 PM »
July Temperature Update: Faustian Payment Comes Due
13 August 2021
James Hansen and Makiko Sato

Quote
We should expect the global warming rate for the quarter of a century 2015-2040 to be about double the 0.18°C/decade rate during 1970-2015 (see Fig. 2), unless appropriate countermeasures are taken

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2021.pdf
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gerontocrat

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2021, 10:17:46 PM »
July Temperature Update: Faustian Payment Comes Due
13 August 2021
James Hansen and Makiko Sato

Quote
We should expect the global warming rate for the quarter of a century 2015-2040 to be about double the 0.18°C/decade rate during 1970-2015 (see Fig. 2), unless appropriate countermeasures are taken

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2021.pdf
If Hansen is right, +1.5 celsius AGW by 2030 a certainty (barring major miracles at COP26 and in the years after).
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kassy

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2021, 11:07:40 AM »
He probably is correct.

This will also mean that the coming decade will have larger heatwaves and even more spectacular downpours, bigger fires, more melting permafrost, more evaporation from fresh water bodies and soils everywhere. And we get to test the survival of our planets top cooler under these conditions... they won´t help.



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vox_mundi

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2021, 01:40:28 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

FishOutofWater

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Re: NASA & NOAA - Rapid Rising Earth Energy Imbalance
« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2021, 02:47:27 AM »
Gerontocrat, as you can see from Hansen's figures, the key to staying under 1.5C is to update the baseline. That's the maddening thing about climate normals in general use. They keep on revising the baseline so when you look at the figures in reports you have trouble comparing them.

Hansen is not immune to the problem of new normals. Look at his report. This is a very serious problem in communicating the urgency of climate change because to the average observer the climate is always moderately above normal no matter how hot it gets.