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Author Topic: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion  (Read 7260 times)

Frivolousz21

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2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« on: June 05, 2013, 07:59:22 AM »

Greenland has already started the process form the average to slightly below average first week to ten days of the melt season.  To exploding way above climo.  The Dark Ice layer will be fully visible in a few days.  the single day snow melt on the East side today as seen on Modis was impressive.

 

When tomrorow's ice sheet melt percentage chart is posted it should show a huge jump above climo.


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sidd

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2013, 12:04:59 AM »
http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/  shows large melt spike today

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2013, 01:24:25 AM »
Temperatures over the WSW Greenland coast have warmed into the low 60s to 70F today.  Melt ponds have formed along the emerging dark ice layer where snow is melted off.

 

 

 

 

The snow melting line coinciding with this area.  It's the large patch of bare land over WSW Greenland has doubled it's size moving up the glacier.

 

It is now almost on top of the 2000M line in this area.

 

This lead's to one of the most spectacular event's I think in the arctic that I love to track.  90% of the Land ice loss from Summer surface melting comes from less than 15% of the entire glacial surface.  Essentially melt percentage above 1500M tell us very little about this Summer's melt's and is more of a tool for tracking super long term changes of the glaciers surface composition and warming.

 

This is why 2010, 2011, and 2012 while all having different levels of "Greenland torch".  2011 on the whole would have appeared to be a much weaker melt but was slightly below 2010 in Summer ice mass loss and a bit more behind 2012.  But 2012 torched hardcore obviously.  But the torching differences in the lower 1500M make the difference.

 

The combination of warm water pouring out of the glacier from melting.  With localized heating feedbacks warming coastal waters even more.  As well a ice albedo feedback/snow melt albedo feedback and obviously most important of all.  The snow cover melting leaving the darker exposed bare land to kick it all off.  Incredible localized heating takes place here.  This spreads up the entire Western side of the Glacier given cooperative weather(Sun-light) models do a terrible job of capturing this beyond day two.



 

 

 
I got a nickname for all my guns
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CraigsIsland

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2013, 03:07:46 AM »
So in other words, GIS is expected to be have an intense (volume) melting season this year?

Frivolousz21

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2013, 11:47:08 AM »
Yes.

500GT is in the bank.

I expect 550-600GT.

Maybe more if July torches.
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frankendoodle

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2013, 11:53:17 PM »
Check out this article on Live Science: http://www.livescience.com/29421-greenland-ice-melt-could-slow.html

You'd think that they'd revise their methods of computer modeling seeing as all of them have dramatically underestimated climate change in the arctic. Hmmm... maybe all the variables and variable interactions haven't been accounted for?

I agree that 500Gt is a given. But I would not be surprised if the GIS contributed a full 2mm to sea level rise this year.

Jim

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2013, 04:28:24 PM »
I thought it might be helpful to compare the Greenland Ice Melt this year, so far, with previous years.
The current data is from here and the historic data from here. (BTW, if anyone knows where the graphical archive is, can you let me know?).

So far, it looks like this year is much less 'chaotic' than previously, although this could be due to different data-handling algorithms. There does seem to be much less melting than last year, but the season is, of course, just getting underway. It will be interesting to see how it develops over the next few months, and just what effect weather (cloudy/clear skies) has on the amount of melt.

RaenorShine

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2013, 10:32:08 AM »
The Danish Meteorological Institute also measure surface melt (http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/gronland/indlandsisens_massebalance.htm - google translate does a fairly good job) and they are showing melt running slightly ahead of 2012.

They measure in a different way, using a model based on the previous days weather to give the amount of surface melt (not just the area which NSIDC do).  This is modelled data rather than measured, but the end result for 2012 looks to match estimates I've seen elsewhre (I think of it as like the PIOMAS volume model). 

Areas in the west of Greenland have been losing around 30mm water equivalent per day for the last week or so, and are already showing negative mass balance for the year (you'd expect the edges to be melting first though). 

Both NSIDC and DMI models don't include the second major increase in ice loss, which is Glacial Calving.  Increased surface melt will be providing more lubrication for this so this could increase further.

Wunderground is not showing any significant decrease in temperatures over the next week so the melt looks to continue.

CraigsIsland

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2013, 06:19:45 PM »
I thought it might be helpful to compare the Greenland Ice Melt this year, so far, with previous years.
The current data is from here and the historic data from here. (BTW, if anyone knows where the graphical archive is, can you let me know?).


I believe it is available through request here:http://climate.rutgers.edu/measures/snowice/?q=content/greenland-daily-surface-melt-25km-ease-grid-20-climate-data-record-0

RaenorShine

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2013, 12:50:59 PM »
NSIDC have a new blog post up on Greenland Today

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/06/springtime-melt-in-greenland-late-start-rapid-spread/

Quote
Surface melting of the snow and ice of the Greenland Ice Sheet had a slightly late start, but quickly spread over a significant area, extending over more than 20% of the ice sheet in early June and reaching above 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) elevation in some areas. Small melt lakes have begun to form on the ice sheet, as seen by the new USGS/NASA Landsat-8 satellite.

Well worth a read in full.

sidd

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2013, 04:55:11 AM »
surface melt efficiently transfers heat into the ice

http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2013/greenland-inland-ice.html

there is large latent heat going in the ice everywhere we see melt lakes

Yuha

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2013, 07:38:28 AM »
DMI Greenland surface mass balance daily change graph has gone off the scale:

http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

CraigsIsland

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2013, 08:48:58 AM »
Dr. Jason Box is reporting a 5% albedo increase over 2012 due to unusually low temperatures (mostly in the north) after a brisk start to melt season. It stands as 4th lowest albedo in their records.

He adds some interesting points and musings about the dark snow project with thoughts about the effects of recent fires from Canada. Interesting research indeed.


http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=1163
« Last Edit: July 26, 2013, 08:55:46 AM by CraigsIsland »

Espen

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2013, 07:34:45 PM »
Heavy melt reported yesterday: http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Have a ice day!

sidd

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Re: 2013 GIS Short to Medium term ice melt discussion
« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2013, 05:31:58 AM »
Saddle at 67 N is melting. Gregoire ( doi:10.1038/nature11257) effect kicking in as  saddle lowers further into ablation zone.