Well since I seemed to have partly caused this discussion to occur I guess I should comment also.
In regards to archiving knowledge and keeping alive all the various skills humans have accumulated over thousands of years I can see no possible argument or problem with folks performing those tasks. Especially skills related to pre-computer technology. We were a very capable species already by then; we even put people on the moon largely with slide rules. I am getting along in years now but over the course of my life I never stopped learning new hand skills (it is sort of a hobby). Like many others I have a lot of books on all those skills and I have probably not even learned half of them yet. It is good mind training and calms the soul. Try and avoid TV.
However, there is one area in which I want to agree with Bob (surprised you there didn't I?). As I mentioned in other posts I am with Bob in that I think the most probable timeframe for collapse to be roughly 2050. For a variety of reasons I think that the available data indicates that is when real crunch time comes and it will no longer be possible to extend BAU. We currently have slack in terms of poor efficiencies in many areas that we can work out of the system and thereby sustain it for a time. AGW and Peak Oil/energy issues will eventually bite hard but not for some time yet. Agriculture metrics will slowly deteriorate over time. Fresh water sources will shrink. Etc. But, baring several of what appear to be low probability events happening at the same time, I do not think one can make a case for a timeframe much sooner than 2050. But back to the main subject.
Like Neven, I have the same opinion of John Geer and his projections. If you have not read his work (especially his blog) it is very worthwhile. He is to say the least a gifted writer and I learn a lot from him even though I disagree with his projections. I think, when things finally reach the point where the system cannot maintain its complexity and has no choice but to shrink to a lower level, that there will already be such stress in the system that the initial drop will be a long ways. The reason I think it will happen this way is just because no one (but a few bloggers) will openly discuss what really needs to be done and institute action to make some of those things happen (thus Bob was asking me for a plan earlier). We are stuck in a paradigm right now where two largely opposed camps are proposing their solutions; one I call the Progressive BAU approach and the other I call the Tea Party (or maybe Establishment would be better) BAU approach. I think both a different version of dead ends and think that, for a variety of factors which I will not go into here, that the current BAU approach will largely dominate and we best make our plans assuming such. Saying it makes no sense, or that it is inhumane, or it is not fair, begs the point. Our civilization has a general approach to functioning and changes very slowly in how it operates. In hard times people fall back upon what worked for them in the past (people are fundamentally conservative in this respect) and are not inclined to take what appear to be chances on new ideas... like sacrificing a hunk of your financial lifestyle for people on the other side of the world you do not even know and in general are not sure you would even like. We have to deal with reality. Doing anything else is pointless.
So how do I think collapse manifests itself? I think that, just like Peak Oil, we are actually already beginning to collapse and just think our current problems are temporary situations. As the next 35 years pass we will see a steady constrictions of options for our civilization to take as the metrics of resources, AGW, financial constraints and such tighten. Between now and the table edge we will see the costs of implementing potential mitigation efforts dramatically rise and they will have to fight for resources with all the other demands of a world of a growing population, deteriorating infrastructure, climate disasters, shifting populations, food scarcities and such. It is going to get increasingly harder as time goes on to execute anything. Results of big efforts will take longer and cost more than expected leaving less for other efforts. Thus is scarcity manifested in a complex system. Eventually it breaks.
When it breaks war will not be the main driver of population decline. Not that there will not be a lot of military conflicts of one sort or another, but they are going to be driven largely by resource needs and protecting what various countries/organizations already control. The big drivers of population decline will be the historical norms; i.e. starvation and disease. They always come together. They can kill people much faster than the military is practically capable of. Long before the general collapse starvation, malnutrition and disease will be allowed to grow in places where they no longer have the wealth to participate in the global system. They will be eased off the back of the bus so to speak. When resources get tight enough down the road it will be a pay to play situation. If you can no longer give people stuff for free you won't. So they will starve. We are going to do this whether it is nice or not. And when I say "We" I am not just including Americans in the statement. Any student of history knows that when it comes to facilitating the end of people that Americans are not alone in their willingness to engage nor are they even on the top of the list. But there is a big difference between stepping back and saying there is nothing I can do to help you and taking an active position in helping you go. At the tables edge is where one can expect active positions to come into play..subtle perhaps but active. But dramatic population decline will have to happen and there is no alternative to starvation and disease. But enough on that as it will come and there is not much we can do about it on a system level.
Where do we end up. Tough question. I agree with Geer in that he expects a stair step type of descent, but I think for most people that the first one is going to be huge in that they do not make it through it. For those in privileged positions like the Americans, Europeans (some of them anyway), some of the Chinese, and other power blocks scattered among various countries and corporations they will plan ahead by restructuring their infrastructures, economies, manufacturing (the US is going to build a lot of capability back up as we wind down globalization), controlling resources, security arrangements, and other such things with the goal of maintaining as much of the technological capabilities as they can. I expect that Democracy will largely disappear as a practiced form of government and that the remaining large powerful countries will orient towards authoritarian structures and the smaller towards a modern type of Feudalism. This is going to be particularly interesting in America, which is already seeing the effects of resistance to its slow drift towards socialist/authoritarian/corporate governance.
Bob wanted to know what my 'plan' was. I have no plan because I am not in charge. If I was it would be a different world already. However, I can think of one thing that would help immensely even at this late stage. The first and most important thing we as a global civilization could do to facilitate the future would be to STOP HAVING BABIES. Period. Not the crap nonsense about declining birth rates, educating poor women, etc. Not encouraging smaller families. Just STOP. For 20-25 years. That might actually come close to fixing things. It would make the crash much less severe and we would have consumed much less resources when it happened. But that is not going to happen.
But I am a hard nosed guy and I would make no effort to maintain BAU. I would support working on capabilities (solar is one) that would help us adapt to our post collapse situation. All efforts from here forward would be to plan for maximum benefit after the collapse. Any effort intended to ensure the collapse would not happen is wasting resources that can be better utilized. I don't believe that humans are capable of global kumbayaness and would not 'plan' for it. People in general are not very admirable and when they are in dire straights they are pretty damn ugly. Plan for that if you are smart. Everyone is going to try and make it. Those who are in good positions in terms of where they live or how wealthy or powerful they are have the best chance of succeeding. Some from both sides will make it some won't. All that matters is that some make it. Our duty now is not to try and maintain and save BAU it is to leave the most resources and capabilities for the post collapse survivors.
