Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread (Read 1062763 times)

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2800 on:** June 25, 2024, 08:44:57 PM »

A small sliver broke off above Hans Island today.

oren · « **Reply #2801 on:** June 26, 2024, 02:59:34 AM »

The Nares situation is quite weird this year. The southern arch crumbled just in time, and then we got this very unusual mid-strait arch, and even more unusual half-arch that has been stable for 6 straight days on Worldview. It's already very late June, I am sure the Lincoln Sea ice is quite happy with this new feature, though it can't hold on for much longer.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2802 on:** June 26, 2024, 08:26:30 PM »

The Nares had clear skies for a while, showing us the complete breakup nicely. Because there were no strong winds, it happened slowly.

https://go.nasa.gov/4bkjiaT

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2803 on:** June 27, 2024, 12:20:14 AM »

Quote from: Freegrass on June 26, 2024, 08:26:30 PM

The Nares had clear skies for a while, showing us the complete breakup nicely. Because there were no strong winds, it happened slowly.

At the risk of sounding very pedantic - but yet again I feel compelled to point out to you FG that "Nares" "complete" "breakup" is not true.

As Oren has already pointed out upthread, there is a northern blockage still ongoing. The Nares Strait is over 500km long.

Yes, your video is though a nice capture of the breakup in the Kane Basin.

John_the_Younger · « **Reply #2804 on:** June 27, 2024, 12:52:39 AM »

Another piece breaks off (approximately) opposite Petermann Fjord. (link)
pink is cold ice
blue is melt ponds, etc.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2805 on:** June 27, 2024, 04:43:37 AM »

Quote from: Niall Dollard on June 27, 2024, 12:20:14 AM

Quote from: Freegrass on June 26, 2024, 08:26:30 PM
The Nares had clear skies for a while, showing us the complete breakup nicely. Because there were no strong winds, it happened slowly.

At the risk of sounding very pedantic - but yet again I feel compelled to point out to you FG that "Nares" "complete" "breakup" is not true.

As Oren has already pointed out upthread, there is a northern blockage still ongoing. The Nares Strait is over 500km long.

Yes, your video is though a nice capture of the breakup in the Kane Basin.

Yes, I know, I lack precision sometimes in my wordings. But I think you know what I mean.

It's going to be interesting to see how long that current bridge will hold. There are no strong winds predicted for the coming days, so it could hold awhile.

And those cracks (leads) that I pointed out before in the Lincoln sea, they must have come from the Lincoln ice lifting away from the land for a moment, as you can see in this GIF.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2806 on:** June 27, 2024, 08:33:30 PM »

Quote from: Freegrass on June 27, 2024, 04:43:37 AM

It's going to be interesting to see how long that current bridge will hold. There are no strong winds predicted for the coming days, so it could hold awhile.

It's a pity today is cloudy. The current bridge doesnt look like it can hold on for much more.

I'm always rooting for it ! I feel every day is one less day of the short cut exit for the ice from the Last Ice Area.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2807 on:** June 30, 2024, 10:17:05 PM »

Sort of against all odds the northern "arch" is making it into July.

Two images attached of the Kennedy Strait - one from 311223 and the other on 300624, show that the ice floe that looks a bit like a giant "Pacman" is still in position just passed the exit point of the Petermann Glacier.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2808 on:** July 02, 2024, 09:18:45 PM »

Some wind will be blowing through the strait in the coming hours. Curious to see if that arch will last another day.

I don't see much wind after that, so if it holds until tomorrow, it could hold on for a few more days.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2809 on:** July 03, 2024, 12:02:36 AM »

A crack appeared today (2nd July) at the top of the Strait (in the Robeson Channel).

At first I thought it might be the blockage starting to slip southwestward, however the movement was in the opposite direction. The ice had pulled towards the Lincoln Sea.

This is consistent with FG's wind map. The wind direction is expected to continue from SW direction (up the channel) for another few days before turning around to a more NE direction by the 6th (according to Nullschool).

Freegrass · « **Reply #2810 on:** July 03, 2024, 10:27:28 PM »

I can see a tiny bit of movement of the ice towards the Lincoln sea. But I'm not sure yet if it isn't a problem with image alignment. I think it's not, because some of the ice in the Kennedy channel isn't moving.

be cause · « **Reply #2811 on:** July 03, 2024, 10:56:19 PM »

Today's blast up the channel has certainly caused some melting and dispersion in Lincoln sea . When this movement reverses in a few days , I expect the Nares to open fully .

ps . this post led me to look at the forecast on Windy .. wind flowing across Lincoln expected to reach 5'c to the north of Lincoln . 48 hrs of devastation at the heart of the 'safe ice ' .

Freegrass · « **Reply #2812 on:** July 04, 2024, 08:24:57 PM »

And that was that.

But now the upper part still seems stuck. $:-\$

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2813 on:** July 04, 2024, 10:11:29 PM »

Quote from: Freegrass on July 04, 2024, 08:24:57 PM

And that was that.

But now the upper part still seems stuck. $:-\$

Pacman's lost his lower jaw !

Freegrass · « **Reply #2814 on:** July 04, 2024, 10:15:56 PM »

Quote from: Niall Dollard on July 04, 2024, 10:11:29 PM

Quote from: Freegrass on July 04, 2024, 08:24:57 PM
And that was that.

But now the upper part still seems stuck. $:-\$

Pacman's lost his lower jaw !

I'm seeing someone with a very long neck kissing a foot.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2815 on:** July 05, 2024, 12:18:57 AM »

I see nearest station to the blockage (Alert) was up to 15° today.

And mostly above 10° for past 48 hours.

Those SW winds are bringing a lot of heat.

be cause · « **Reply #2816 on:** July 05, 2024, 06:57:34 PM »

.. causing the disintegration of the 'lower jaw' and causing the northern 1/3rd of the ice in Hall basin to move a little north .. not much left of the blockage to go .

Freegrass · « **Reply #2817 on:** July 06, 2024, 11:23:07 PM »

Well that's the end of that.

https://go.nasa.gov/3WcrpSG

be cause · « **Reply #2818 on:** July 07, 2024, 09:44:54 PM »

24 hrs later and the 2nd image of the day reveals that Lincoln is heading south .. Nares is fully open for business

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2819 on:** July 08, 2024, 09:35:57 AM »

We can call it in then on July 6th.

That makes it to 196 days blocked.

Attached is the longevity of the arches from 2007 onwards.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2820 on:** July 08, 2024, 10:52:20 AM »

Nares Strait break up dates :

2007 - No arches formed.
2008 - June 10th
2009 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around June 30th.
2010 - No arch
2011 - July 5th.
2012 - June 30th.
2013 - July 10th.
2014 - June 20th.
2015 - July 5th.
2016 - June 30th
2017 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around May 10th.
2018 - June 30th.
2019 - No arch
2020 - July 2nd
2021 - June 30th
2022 - No arches
2023 - June 9th
2024 - July 6th (southern arch started breaking on June 11th)

oren · « **Reply #2821 on:** July 08, 2024, 05:15:58 PM »

Thank you for keeping score, Niall.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2822 on:** July 08, 2024, 10:07:54 PM »

Breaking up is hard to do…

Here's the breakup.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2823 on:** December 10, 2024, 05:34:28 AM »

Does anyone have a better view than this? The filter I used before on Worldview during winter darkness doesn't work anymore. Anyone a suggesting which one to use now?

On this image, it looks like an arch has formed. You can see the front break away while the back stays behind. But I'm not 100% sure yet. We'll need to wait a day or 2 to be sure, or a good satellite image.

It's actually more obvious to see on the unedited GIF.

uniquorn · « **Reply #2824 on:** December 10, 2024, 10:16:54 PM »

https://col.st/2i5q2

Movement may have stopped in the Kane Basin but the arch may not hold.

be cause · « **Reply #2825 on:** December 11, 2024, 01:00:24 PM »

my choice of worldview in winter still works well ... https://go.nasa.gov/3VusW5V . Watching what has been happening on the Atlantic side over the last few weeks , the current record low extent seems unbelievable .
As for Nares , this must have been an extraordinarily low export year . And just as I think it is @ to become active ...

Freegrass · « **Reply #2826 on:** December 11, 2024, 01:26:42 PM »

Quote from: be cause on December 11, 2024, 01:00:24 PM

my choice of worldview in winter still works well ... https://go.nasa.gov/3VusW5V .

Thank you so much BC! That's a good one.

Quote from: uniquorn on December 10, 2024, 10:16:54 PM

https://col.st/2i5q2

Movement may have stopped in the Kane Basin but the arch may not hold.

The arch is in a precarious place, so it will be interesting to see if it holds.
So far, so good.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2827 on:** December 11, 2024, 06:12:08 PM »

The lower Kane Basin below 80 N line stopped moving on Dec 9th.

Above 80 N leading from the Kennedy Strait there is a little movement on the 10th and further up on the 11th.

We typically wait about 3 or 4 days to see if it holds, before calling it in. But it's looking good.

It's good for (what little remains of ) the multi year ice to have an early closure of the Nares Strait and we try and retain as much as we can of the old ice.

Typically I think export through the Nares is about 10% of that what goes down the Fram. Although I imagine that old stat was probably compiled in the days when the Nares Strait used to block up every year.

Since 2009 we have had quite a few years when the arch did not hold for long and export continued all through the year !

John_the_Younger · « **Reply #2828 on:** December 11, 2024, 06:51:01 PM »

I recall the 10 percent of Fram was the year 2007 when Nares didn’t close at all.

uniquorn · « **Reply #2829 on:** December 12, 2024, 02:26:47 PM »

Quote from: Niall Dollard on December 11, 2024, 06:12:08 PM

The lower Kane Basin below 80 N line stopped moving on Dec 9th.

Above 80 N leading from the Kennedy Strait there is a little movement on the 10th and further up on the 11th.
<>

Interesting that SIMB3 2024N drift in the Lincoln Sea reduced at nearly the same time.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2830 on:** December 13, 2024, 10:20:41 PM »

The lower part of the Kane Basin, where the current arch is, hasnt moved since Dec 9th.

So I think it is safe to say we have a solid arch ! Hope I dont put the kiss of death on it now. Last year's occurred just before Christmas and we barely noticed it forming.

Dec 9th makes it the earliest formation since Dec 5th in 2020.

Here is the formation list:

2025 - December 9th (2024)
2024 - December 23rd (2023)
2023 - March 30th
2022 - No arch
2021 - December 5th (2020).
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

uniquorn · « **Reply #2831 on:** January 02, 2025, 08:06:54 PM »

Quote from: uniquorn on December 10, 2024, 10:16:54 PM

https://col.st/2i5q2

Movement may have stopped in the Kane Basin but the arch may not hold.

The lower arch has collapsed.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2832 on:** January 03, 2025, 01:00:19 PM »

Well that didnt last long !

The arch that formed on Dec 9th last held solid to the 30th Dec. (22 days).

There is clear movement on Dec 31st. So it is back to the drawing board now. I hope a new arch can form, preferably at a more stable point within the strait.

oren · « **Reply #2833 on:** January 03, 2025, 01:08:22 PM »

I think it's more difficult to form an arch once it's broken. But as the date is still early, maybe we can get another one.

uniquorn · « **Reply #2834 on:** January 03, 2025, 02:09:40 PM »

dec30 was a new moon, maybe a slightly higher tide? Though it survived the last full moon.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2835 on:** January 03, 2025, 07:19:35 PM »

Odd too that the initial movement from Dec 30th to Dec 31st was in a SW to NE direction ie moved up the Strait towards the Kennedy Channel, instead of the more usual collapse with movement down the channel from NE to SW.

Needs a click

uniquorn · « **Reply #2836 on:** January 06, 2025, 10:10:10 PM »

Quote from: Niall Dollard on January 03, 2025, 07:19:35 PM

Odd too that the initial movement from Dec 30th to Dec 31st was in a SW to NE direction ie moved up the Strait towards the Kennedy Channel, instead of the more usual collapse with movement down the channel from NE to SW.

Too cloudy for Rammb on the dec30 but by dec31 everything has lifted off from the west side.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2837 on:** January 09, 2025, 06:13:10 PM »

Ice in much of the Kane Basin is hardening today with little movement. Below Kane the ice is moving from SW to NE up the channel.

A crack becomes apparent also where the Kennedy Channel starts.

So even though there are signs it is hardening again. No real defined arch just yet and it still looks fragile.

https://col.st/HgA01

uniquorn · « **Reply #2838 on:** January 11, 2025, 01:15:22 PM »

I think it is moving again now the wind has changed.

uniquorn · « **Reply #2839 on:** January 11, 2025, 10:09:28 PM »

fascinating

uniquorn · « **Reply #2840 on:** January 12, 2025, 11:52:25 AM »

Quote from: Niall Dollard on January 09, 2025, 06:13:10 PM

So even though there are signs it is hardening again. No real defined arch just yet and it still looks fragile.

https://col.st/HgA01

The current may be winning against the low temperatures so far.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2841 on:** January 20, 2025, 09:15:34 PM »

A lot of cloud today, but is it starting to hold again ?

https://col.st/BCXvY

gerontocrat · « **Reply #2842 on:** January 20, 2025, 09:50:55 PM »

Images from https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php

17th & 19th Jan - the gif shows theere is still movement

Click to start & click again for fullsize- runs 7 times

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2843 on:** January 20, 2025, 10:22:42 PM »

We dont have a DMI image for the 20th, yet. The Rammb slider image linked is from the 20th.

Freegrass · « **Reply #2844 on:** January 20, 2025, 10:48:29 PM »

It looks blocked again on this.

Zoom in all the way to see it better.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2845 on:** January 21, 2025, 09:44:11 PM »

Yes. The DMI Kane image for 21st Jan is available today and this GIF linked with the image from 19th shows little movement now.

It looks like the 20th was when it seized up.

Hopefully this arch will last longer. The ice looks whiter (thicker) then the last arch in December.

GIF needs a click

oren · « **Reply #2846 on:** January 23, 2025, 11:14:52 PM »

It does appear to be re-formed.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #2847 on:** January 26, 2025, 08:02:38 PM »

I have added the new arch that formed on 20th January to the list. This second arch looks stronger visually and should last until the summer. But you never know these days!

2025 - January 20th
2025 - December 9th (2024) until Dec 30th (22 days)
2024 - December 23rd (2023)
2023 - March 30th
2022 - No arch
2021 - December 5th (2020).
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch

News:

Author Topic: The Nares Strait thread (Read 1062763 times)