Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption

[gerontocrat]

China's Bureau of National Statistics is gradually issuing more up-to-date annual data

As China is the world's no. 1 emitter of CO2, here are a couple of new graphs. The data is "as is" from the Bureau's tables (i.e. no adjustents or changes).

The 1st graph shows annual energy consumption in the last 20 years, in, of all things, units of 10,000 tons of Coal Equivalent. This initially shows us two things:
- the Chinese numbering system is a bit different from that in the West,-
- China is coal rich, has modest natural gas reerves, and minimal oil reserves (hence its push for domination in the South China Sea). Energy dependence on coal is built into statistical record-keeping,

More detail
Total primary energy consumption has increased by 150% since 2004 (population only increased marginally - by less than 1%, though the percentage of the Urban population rose from 43% to 66%).

The 2nd graph shows the proprtion of energy consumption by source. Despite the high energy consumption growth, electrification of energy consumption has risien from 8.4% to 17.5%, while dependence on coal has reduced from 72% to 55%.

Sinopec is apparently predicting peak oil this year. Petroleum products account for 18% of energy consumption in 2023, down from 20% in 2004. This is much lower than in some counties, e.g. the USA where it is 36%. With EVs doing so well in China, it is starting to look like the strong growth in private and commercial vehicles in China will not be leading to increased demand for the black stuff, a key element in China's energy security strategy.

Use of natural gas, however, has increased from 2% to 8% of energy consumption.

Despite progress in switching from coal, overall China's economy in 2023 was still dependent by more than 80% on fossil fuels (down from 95% in 2004, i.e. a reduction of less than 1% per year). Net zero by 2050 (2060?) still looks a Herculean task.

[interstitial]

gerontocrat you describe a graph based on coal equivalents but show a graph based on percentages which in my opinion gives a false impression of declining fossil fuel consumption.

[gerontocrat]

gerontocrat you describe a graph based on coal equivalents but show a graph based on percentages which in my opinion gives a false impression of declining fossil fuel consumption.

Wrong graph! Corrected

[gerontocrat]

The IEA have issued electricity data for the OECD countries & others up to January 2024

12 month trailing averages used to smooth out monthly & seasonal variations.


The tables attached show that for the OECD +China + India the percentage of electricity from coal+oil+natural gas has fallen below 50%. However, electricity from these fossil fuels continues to grow due to the increase in electricity produced.

The USA's electricity from coal spiked in January 2024 to 79TWH from 59TWH in December. However, Interstitial tells us that coal use has plummeted to daily record lows in the following months.

Wind+solar electricity from OECD +China + India increased by 14.5% over the 12 months Jan 23 to Jan 24, fossil fuel electricity by 2.3%.

The wind+solar graphs show China's continuing dominance.

The last graph shows that electricity is a growth industry and coal+natural gas are still the main players.

click images to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, China's National Statistics Bureau has published energy data to March 2024.

Electricity produced in the first 3 months of 2024 was 8% higher than in the first 3 months of 2023.
For the 12 months April 23 to March 24 the production was 7.2% above April 22 to March 23.

Despite the 18+% increase in wind+solar electricity, the lacklustre performance of nuclear and hydropower, resulted in a large increase in the use of thermal electricity (mostly coal) which was 7.2 higher than in the first 3 months of 2023, and for the 12 months April 23 to March 24 production was 7.7% above April 22 to March 23.

Nevertheless, wind+solar April 23 to March 24 increased to 12.7% of total electricity, from 11.5% in the 12 months before.

In contrast coal production in the first 3 months of 2024 is 4.1% below that of the first 3 months of 2023, and increased by only 1% in the 12 months April 23 to March 24 compared with April 22 to March 23.

Trouble is, I have no data on the use of coal for other purposes than electricity production.

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, China's National Statistics Bureau has published energy data to March 2024.

The big question is when will China's use of coal for electricity start to reduce.

In the last 12 months the annual increase of wind+solar electricity was 18.4%.
I have assumed 20% in future years which will be harder and harder to achieve.

Due to climate change (heat, droughts, floods, more frequent extreme weather events) I have doubts whether Hydropower will increase at all. I have put annual growth in at 1%.

Nuclear !! I am more than surprised See China Daily Article below

Is China's nuclear programme taking off bigtime?

To achieve nuclear energy of 10% of total power production by 2035 looks like an average annual growth rate of around 10%, which I've put into my projection.

Result: Thermal electricity increases at a reducing rate until 2028. After 2030 thermal electricity drops like a stone
The IEA seems to be more optimistic than me.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/16/WS661dcf47a31082fc043c2252.html

Nuclear power's share in energy mix on the rise

Carbon-free electricity generator seen as key to meeting environmental goals


An aerial drone photo taken on Feb 22 shows construction on the second phase of the Zhangzhou nuclear power project in Zhangzhou, Fujian province. The project uses Hualong One reactors, which are third-generation reactors developed domestically. [PHOTO/XINHUA]

Nuclear power generating capacity in China is expected to continue increasing in the coming years with its share in the country's energy mix set to keep climbing, according to an industry report.

China is expected to further expand its installed nuclear power capacity, which will account for 10 percent of China's total power output in 2035, up from 5 percent in 2021 and equivalent to reducing 900 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to a blue book — China's Nuclear Energy Development 2024 — released by the China Nuclear Energy Association on Monday.

The share of nuclear power generation is expected to reach 18 percent by 2060, which is similar to the current average level for members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it said.

The Chinese government has been implementing an active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power in recent years, with the scale and pace of nuclear power development entering a new normal, Zhang Tingke, vice-chairman and secretary-general of the China Nuclear Energy Association, said on Monday.

According to the blue book, China's nuclear power generation has continued to grow over the past few years, and future power supply growth will come mostly from non-fossil energy sources amid its green energy transition.

Nuclear power generation in China reached 433.37 billion kilowatt-hours last year, ranking second worldwide and equivalent to reducing the burning of standard coal by more than 130 million tons compared with coal-fired power generation, it said.

In 2023, China's nuclear power projects under construction steadily advanced, with five new nuclear power units launching construction. The investment in nuclear power construction was 94.9 billion yuan ($13.11 billion) last year, the highest level in five years, it said.

According to CITIC Securities, the accelerated approval of nuclear power projects is expected to lead to the growth of China's related industry chain, further facilitating the country's goal of reducing carbon emissions sooner than planned.

It estimates that the value of investments in new nuclear power plants will hit 231 billion yuan by 2025.

Nuclear power is seen as a carbon-free low-cost alternative in China's energy transition, and its role has become increasingly important in recent years, said S&P Global Commodity Insights.

China's energy policy is leaning toward strong growth in nuclear, in line with several European countries where it has assumed greater importance with the diversification from Russian oil and gas, it said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights projects the share of nuclear power to be higher in the generational mix of coastal provinces at 15 percent in 2035, up from 11 percent in 2021, while China's nuclear generation capacity will reach 145 gigawatts in 2035, more than double the 2025 target level.

In China's latest 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), the government has called for nuclear generation capacity expansion to 70 GW in 2025.

According to the blue book, China continues to lead the world in the number of nuclear power units under construction at 26. Total planned installed capacity of 30.30 GW is currently under construction, ranking tops worldwide, it said.

Wang Shoujun, president of the Chinese Nuclear Society, said after more than 30 years of development, China has risen from being a novice to a pioneer in the nuclear power industry.

The country's nuclear power industry has witnessed huge progress in localizing nuclear technology, including its third-generation Hualong One pressurized water nuclear reactor design — a Chinese reactor with full proprietary intellectual property rights — which is also one of the most widely accepted third-generation nuclear power reactors in the market, Wang said.

The country has also been consistently pushing forward research and development of large advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, with numerous technological breakthroughs in onshore commercial modular small reactor construction as well as numerous advanced nuclear energy systems, Wang added.

       

[kassy]

That is encouraging. Again faster then expected. Not committing to a certain target is less of a problem if you fix the problem for other reasons.

[gerontocrat]

CHINA - And now a Flight of Fancy.

What will happen if China just keeps on going on renewables and nuclear the way it is at the moment all the way to 2035?

If it happens, it will be wind+solar, not nuclear, that kills the Thermal Electricity / Coal industry in the 2030s. Nuclear will be a baseload supplier.

This would hand China another big debt problem, with some local governments already in big trouble from coal plant and property sector debts.

Pure speculation?  I wonder,

ps:
- Solar power is understated in the data, as rooftop solar is not included in the monthly data from the National Statistics Bureau although it is growing strongly. It seems in March the understatement was 46TWH, 150% of the published solar figure, 6% of total electricity production. Stunning.
- The data strongly suggests that as well as problems with the grid,  electricity utilities and local governments are keeping the coal plants going, leading to suppression (curtailment) of solar power. The result is the capacity factor of solar is currently less than 10%, even though most of China is south of 45 degrees North.
- Wind power capacity factor is less than 25%, also indicating significant curtailment of potential supply.

[Freegrass]

Excellent video again from Rosie about the transition in Switzerland. I really love her videos.

Switzerland already has a lot of hydro and nuclear, but wants to end nuclear, and become a useful partner in the European energy transition by creating more pumped hydro storage.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The USA Energy Information Agency have published Jan 24 Energy Data

Here are some graphs. Will President Biden's target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction in US CO2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 be achieved?

I still think a reduction in CO2 emissions will be achieved but very much below the target reduction.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

The USA Energy Information Agency have published Jan 24 Energy Data

Waste heat from coal and gas used in electricity production remains stubbornly high at 300GWH per month, 6 times the electricity from wind+solar.

This does not include energy used from source to delivery at power station, so perhaps a 5-10% to the 300 GWH.

We may see a strong rise at least in solar this year, plus a marked reduction in coal use. This could bring a stronger reduction in wasted energy from coal and gas.

[interstitial]

February electricity number are out no surprises really solar up a bit and wind flat. Coal down a bit and gas up far to much and will probably continue to grow until it gets much more expensive. It is too cheap in the US right now at $1.61 /mmbtu at this writing. In south Texas the price of natural gas went negative several times recently.