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PragmaticAntithesis

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Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« on: September 13, 2021, 06:55:54 AM »
I think I've just about got in before the freezing season's beginning!

So, will the freezing season be impressive, leading to strong ice heading into 2022, or will it be just as much of a dud as the melting season?
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The Walrus

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2021, 05:47:20 PM »
I think I've just about got in before the freezing season's beginning!

So, will the freezing season be impressive, leading to strong ice heading into 2022, or will it be just as much of a dud as the melting season?

I am going with a dud, but what do I know?

Aluminium

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2021, 03:22:10 PM »
JAXA extent.

SimonF92

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2021, 01:17:37 PM »
JAXA extent.

Would love to see the confidence interval on that
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

gerontocrat

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2021, 04:14:51 PM »
The first 2 graphs attached show that it is the 7 peripheral regions that are by far the most important determinations of the Arctic sea ice maximum.

The 7 regions of of the Central Arctic all get close to 100% ice cover by the maximum, (though one or two, such as the Kara are starting to show less than 100% ice).

In contrast, the peripheral regions at maximum have lost just over 1 million km2 of sea ice area at maximum, i.e. over 4 times the land area of the UK or about 1.5 times the land area of Texas. One or two of those regions, e.g. Hudson Bay, do get completely ice covered, but most are displaying sea ice loss over time even at maximum.

In a recent post elsewhere, the importance of these peripheral seas was questioned. But surely 1 million Km2 of open water instead of ice must have some climatic impact, e.g. warmth and humidity of weather systems heading towards the Central Arctic passing over open water instead of an icy desert.

The obvious starting point is the minimum. The third graph is the September sea ice area monthly average. The contrast between this record low minimum compared with the high values in the Central Arctic is fairly impressive.

The end point is the maximum. I attach the March monthly average graph, which shows a linear long-term trend of a loss of 32k sea ice area annually.

To conclude, I have no idea whatsoever what the result will be in March 22.
All I have to offer is that every year CO2 ppm has risen and will continue to do so for a good few years yet.


click images to enlarge
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gerontocrat

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2021, 08:29:51 PM »
But here is a possible clue. This research letter (Sep 27 2021) links what happens in winter to the preceding summer's sea ice loss and Albedo.

Summer 2021 saw slow melt and a corresponding relatively low Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic (basically North of 70).  This (I think) suggests a slow winter warming twixt 70 and 90 North.

But what does that mean for the peripheral seas at lower latitudes? I have read suggestions that the predicted La Nina could mean that the High Arctic could be leaky this winter, i.e. allowing cold air to escape to lower latitudes from time to time.

This would suggest a high Arctic sea ice maximum?


https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094878
Understanding the cold season Arctic surface warming trend in recent decades
Quote
Abstract
Whether sea-ice loss or lapse-rate feedback dominates the Arctic amplification remains an open question. Analysis of datasets based upon observations reveals a 1.11 K per decade surface warming trend in the Arctic (70-90°N) during 1979-2020 cold season (October-February) that is five times higher than the corresponding global mean. Based on surface energy budget analysis, we show that the largest contribution (∼82%) to this cold season warming trend is attributed to changes in clear-sky downward longwave radiation. In contrast to that in Arctic summer and over tropics, a reduction in lower-tropospheric inversions plays a unique role in explaining the reduction of the downward longwave radiation associated with atmospheric nonuniform temperature and corresponding moisture changes. Our analyses also suggest that Arctic lower-tropospheric stability should be considered in conjunction with sea-ice decline during the preceding warm season to explain Arctic amplification.

Plain Language Summary

Observations and climate models have consistently shown a stronger surface warming in the Arctic than the global mean, a.k.a. Arctic amplification (AA), which has a strong asymmetry between the cold season and warm season. Previous studies suggested that key contributors to AA are the positive surface-albedo feedback and lapse-rate feedback. However, the lapse-rate feedback itself depends on temperature profiles and sea-ice loss. Whether sea-ice loss or lapse-rate feedback dominates AA remains an open question. Here, by analyzing the latest generation of observationally based reanalysis data (1979-2020), we present a unique role of lower-tropospheric temperature inversion changes in representing the contribution of vertically inhomogeneous atmospheric temperature and associated moisture changes to clear-sky downward longwave radiation during the cold season. This unique role is not found either in the tropics or during Arctic summertime. We further link the inversion during the cold season to sea-ice loss during the preceding warm season. These results reinforce previous findings not only that lapse-rate feedback and sea-ice loss play a key role in AA but also that lapse-rate feedback in the cold season is likely a consequence of sea-ice albedo feedback during the preceding warm season.
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El Cid

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2021, 09:24:48 PM »
I have read suggestions that the predicted La Nina could mean that the High Arctic could be leaky this winter, i.e. allowing cold air to escape to lower latitudes from time to time.

This would suggest a high Arctic sea ice maximum?

Au contraire. If the Arctic is "leaky" and cold air escapes to midlatitudes, then the Arctic will be warm and there will be little ice   the next season to start with.


gerontocrat

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2021, 09:52:37 PM »
I have read suggestions that the predicted La Nina could mean that the High Arctic could be leaky this winter, i.e. allowing cold air to escape to lower latitudes from time to time.

This would suggest a high Arctic sea ice maximum?

Au contraire. If the Arctic is "leaky" and cold air escapes to midlatitudes, then the Arctic will be warm and there will be little ice   the next season to start with.
"and cold air escapes to the mid-latitudes"

That cold air from the High Arctic will pass over the southern edge of the peripheral seas on the way to the mid-latitudes.

But it is all speculation I promised myself to be a watcher, not a speculator this time. Ho hum.
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El Cid

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2021, 08:14:25 AM »
It is a bit more than speculation I think although I have to admit that there are too few datapoints and R2 is only 0,48: not bad but not perfect either.

I downloaded PIOMAS data and GISS Arctic temperature anomaly (vs 2010-2020) for the years 2007-2021. Here is what I came up with.

Warmer Arctic years seem to have less  ice while colder ones have more:


The Walrus

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2021, 02:40:39 PM »
Warmer Arctic years seem to have less  ice while colder ones have more:

I think that is more than just speculation.

Aluminium

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2021, 10:16:58 PM »
JAXA extent.

Would love to see the confidence interval on that
I too. But at the moment I don't have enough confidence in any confidence interval. In December-June expected uncertainty (1 sigma) is 0.3 M km2.

Stephan

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2021, 12:03:44 PM »
Please find attached the standard deviation for Arctic Sea Ice Area, Extent, Volume and Thickness for the periods Jan 1987-Aug 2021 or Jan 1979-Aug 2021, respectively.
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oren

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2021, 12:07:05 PM »
Very interesting Stephan. I recommend to cross-post to the "When will the Arctic go ice-free" thread, which thrives on long term data.

gerontocrat

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2021, 12:08:41 PM »
From JAXA data - a bit more

A difference of 2 million km2 between the daily extent on this day and that of one year ago is certainly a record for this century and probably the entire 43 year satellite record. Even the difference between the 2012 record low minimum and that of 2013 was only just over 1.6 million km2.

It seems to be due to 3 factors,
- The 2021 minimum being 1 million more than in 2020, 
- in 2020 October sea ice gains were so low that it led to the October 2020 monthly average being the lowest in the satellite record,
- Sea ice gains since minmum in 2021 have been mostly at average or above average.

The graphs and table attached are based on se ice extent gains continuing at the average of the last 10 years for the remainder of the freezing season. It is far too early in the season to take these projections seriously, except that average extent gains for the remainder of the freezing season is a plausible scenario.

click images to enlarge
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Casual 2021/22 freezing season predictions
« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2021, 06:19:50 PM »
As luck would have it I've been debating this very issue with both "Steve Goddard" and Judah Cohen on Twitter:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/lies-damned-lies-and-tony-heller-videos/#Oct-22

Here's Judah's suggested 10 year view:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein