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Freegrass

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The 2021/2022 freezing season
« on: September 14, 2021, 04:08:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 24h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I'm calling it. The forecast looks very favorable for ice expansion into the Laptev and the ESS. And with area rising for the last 12 days, I don't see how this gain in the coming days could be undone. So if everyone agrees, the melting season officially ended yesterday with a gain today of 14K.

The minimum was 4,612,915 km2 on the 12th September.

Added HYCOM for the last 365 days.
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oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2021, 04:40:25 PM »
I disagree, and rush unjustified. At least a couple more days to have higher certainty.

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2021, 10:11:07 AM »
A couple pf days have passed, and general freezing is finally outpacing the extent lost from melting still taking place in the Beaufort and Kara, so the thread is now officially open.
This year has seen what may be the earliest date for initial refreeze within the pack, as shown by CAB area data. I hope this freezing season will lead to high volume gains, though as usual I have my doubts.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2021, 12:56:27 PM by oren »

seaice.de

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2021, 11:22:54 AM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2021, 11:44:28 AM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
Fantastic! Especially now that Arctischepinguin is down, having the CSV with regional breakdown and the regional charts with the new AWI algorithm is GREAT. Much appreciated.
Note I find the charts a bit hard to read, maybe make the AMSR2 lines thicker and the SSMI lines thinner. Also maybe switch to dashed for the SSMI and solid for the AMSR2 lines.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2021, 11:47:09 AM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
I love this animation, but is it possible to make it a little smaller so it fits on my display? Right now I can't view it in its entirety. I usually make my animations 800px wide.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2021, 12:09:14 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
Ho hum....

And it is ftp which google no longer supports.

Click the link and what do you get?
A tab entitled about:blank

firefox don't like it either.

BUT  microsoft left a door open - probably accidentally.

Note that Readme says they are using the NSIDC sea ice regional boundaries - i.e. compared with the Wipneus data the Central Arctic size shrinks and the areas of the surrounding seas (Beaufort, Chukchi ESS Laptev especially) are larger.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2021, 02:02:34 PM by gerontocrat »
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oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2021, 12:11:17 PM »
It opens fine in the outdated Internet explorer.

seaice.de

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2021, 12:33:24 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
Fantastic! Especially now that Arctischepinguin is down, having the CSV with regional breakdown and the regional charts with the new AWI algorithm is GREAT. Much appreciated.
Note I find the charts a bit hard to read, maybe make the AMSR2 lines thicker and the SSMI lines thinner. Also maybe switch to dashed for the SSMI and solid for the AMSR2 lines.

Thanks, the graphs are still under construction and this feedback is very welcome.

I've made a quick comparison between the old UHH data from Arctischepinguin and the new AWI product. It seems that they fit well without a significant bias.

seaice.de

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2021, 12:42:47 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
Ho hum....

And it is ftp which google no longer supports.

Click the link and what do you get?
A tab entitled about:blank

firefox don't like it either.

Yeah, too bad that the good old ftp vanishes. As a quick workaround I mirrored these files also on my site. i.e.
 
https://seaice.de/nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv
https://seaice.de/nh_extent_SSMI_ASI_Regional_1992_2020.csv

https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif
https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic.gif

https://seaice.de/Greenland_a.png
https://seaice.de/Beaufort_a.png
https://seaice.de/Total_e.png
https://seaice.de/Total_a.png
...




Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2021, 01:36:19 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!

Thanks Lars,

The date ordering at the end of the AMSR2 CSV file currently leaves something to be desired?

The 2021 minimum currently seems to be 4.38  million km2 on 2021-09-13?

Are the regions identical to those defined by Wipneus for UH data?
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2021, 02:06:33 PM »

Are the regions identical to those defined by Wipneus for UH data?

I think not

from Readme file...

Projection and grid
-------------------
https://epsg.io/3411 NSIDC Sea Ice Polar Stereographic North
https://epsg.io/3412 NSIDC Sea Ice Polar Stereographic South
Grid cell size 3125 meter

Global: 9000x9000 pixels longlat WGS84 EPSG:4326

Also see my post above
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2021, 03:12:49 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

There might still be a bump in the road in a few days from now for this brand new freezing season...  :-\


A video of the 2021 melting season from May 1 to September 12 can be found here.
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seaice.de

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2021, 04:10:18 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

It includes a table of the regional extent and area derived from AWI AMSR2 SIC product
nh_awi_amsr2_regional_extent_area.csv

Full reprocessing is not yet finished but data will be regularly updated.

See ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/README.txt for a quick introduction.

Feedback and comments are very welcome!
Ho hum....

And it is ftp which google no longer supports.

Click the link and what do you get?
A tab entitled about:blank

firefox don't like it either.

BUT  microsoft left a door open - probably accidentally.

Note that Readme says they are using the NSIDC sea ice regional boundaries - i.e. compared with the Wipneus data the Central Arctic size shrinks and the areas of the surrounding seas (Beaufort, Chukchi ESS Laptev especially) are larger.

Thanks! Yes, indeed. Kara and Total extent are similar but e.g. Beaufort extent is different.

Is there a binary mask of Wipenus / Cryosphere today regions somewhere?

Paul

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2021, 09:07:22 PM »
Get the feeling refreeze could be quite rapid leading from the main pack upto wrangel Island, similar to 2012 in that aspect due to low SSTS and fresher water from any late melting ice. Could see similar conditions in the Beaufort also, all with the caveat of weather playing ball.

The Laptev will be the one to watch but SSTS have been dropping and I don't anticipate a refreeze as late as last year, maybe more like 2018 where there was an arm of ice stretching in the ESS area and another close to the Kara sea and everything in the middle refreezes eventually. Be interesting to watch.

The Atlantic side will be slow for the foreseeable, weather is looking above average although it does mean fram export will be low. I also suspect there will be a late refreeze around the Novaya Zemlya island due to very warm SSTS there currently. Should be interesting how it develops.

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2021, 10:47:44 PM »
A new freezing thread and time to announce a new independent AMSR2 data source. Have a look at:

ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/amsr2/v106/analysis_nh/

I think that this topic is important enough to have a new thread, so, if you allow me, Seaice.de:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=3652.msg321934#msg321934
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2021, 06:48:51 AM »
September 12-16.

2020.

nadir

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2021, 03:11:21 PM »
This Arctic summer finishes as stormy as it started and as it’s been most of the season.

echoughton

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2021, 08:33:11 PM »
So where did the 2021 melt season rank with recent years? Are we still seeing the same trends in decadal declines in ice extent and volume or is it moderating a bit? Always a pleasure to be a part of this group.

The Walrus

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2021, 10:14:27 PM »
So where did the 2021 melt season rank with recent years? Are we still seeing the same trends in decadal declines in ice extent and volume or is it moderating a bit? Always a pleasure to be a part of this group.

Assuming it is over (not a guarantee), it ranks around 11th lowest, depending on which metric one uses.  There has been a raging argument over on the ice-free thread as to which trend best describes the recent decline.  This year falls more in line with the recent, 14-year trend, than the longer term.

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2021, 12:10:48 AM »
At the end of August volume was ranked 7th lowest (PIOMAS), so I guess it really does depend on which metric one uses.

Brigantine

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2021, 12:22:28 AM »
Open water freezing now allegedly observed in the southern Beaufort, accompanied by a perplexing absence of any new ice forming within the pack


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2021, 01:32:15 AM »
Open water freezing now allegedly observed in the southern Beaufort...[/img]

Ships in the southern Beaufort are generally avoiding the ice! However CCGS Louis S. St Laurent reports both air and water temperature of -1.4 °C at 75.8N, 146.1W.

An ice mass balance buoy still in amongst the ice at 73.8N, 133.0W reports air at +0.8 °C currently, although it did get down to ~ -6 °C a few days ago. All in all it still seems a bit on the warm side for fresh freezing?

Freezing is also allegedly observed within the pack in Larsen Sound as well. CCGS Terry Fox doesn't record water temperatures unfortunately, but air temperatures were ~ -3.8 °C when he was there earlier today:
« Last Edit: September 18, 2021, 01:51:01 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2021, 03:21:07 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

The bump in the road seems to have vanished... So no new minimum in sight! It's over... Although a slowdown may occur...

Fram export is something to watch out for in a few days from now, while MYI keeps getting blown away further from the beaufort sea - and thus possibly from the pacific front...
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Brigantine

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2021, 01:30:15 AM »
Two more days, and a whole lot more sense. The pack is teeming with new ice, beyond is nothing


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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2021, 10:03:21 AM »
September 16-20.

2020.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2021, 03:53:17 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

It looks like the remaining Kara sea ice will have to endure a little more melt in a few days from now. Still not 100% sure if it will survive! But I think we're good...
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2021, 08:44:13 AM »
September 18-22.

2020.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2021, 10:40:31 AM »
Thanks for those updates, Aluminium. And always useful to have the quick link to this time last year.

Of course 2020 was very low and here is the NSIDC extent comparison for 21st September.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2021, 11:58:10 AM »
Just in case anybody else is interested, there's a webinar on the subject "Snow on Arctic sea ice – much still to learn from Soviet Drifting stations" starting at 1 PM Once Great British Summer Time this afternoon:

https://cirfa.uit.no/cirfa-seminar-on-23-september/
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El Cid

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2021, 06:19:25 PM »
2021 Sep 21 Sea temperatures compared to 2020 and 2019.

The surrounding seas (where refreeze will happen) are much colder than in 2020. The Chukchi is much colder than in 2019 but the Laptev-Kara is warmer.

We should see fast refreeze in the Chukchi and pretty slow refreeze in the Laptev

vox_mundi

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #32 on: September 24, 2021, 12:00:50 AM »
NASA Satellites Show How Clouds Respond to Arctic Sea Ice Change
https://phys.org/news/2021-09-nasa-satellites-clouds-arctic-sea.html

For decades, scientists have assumed that losses in Arctic sea ice cover allow for the formation of more clouds near the ocean's surface. Now, new NASA research shows that by releasing heat and moisture through a large hole in sea ice known as a polynya, the exposed ocean fuels the formation of more clouds that trap heat in the atmosphere and hinder the refreezing of new sea ice.

The findings come from a study over a section of northern Baffin Bay between Greenland and Canada known as the North Water Polynya. The research is among the first to probe the interactions between the polynya and clouds with active sensors on satellites, which allowed scientists to analyze clouds vertically at lower and higher levels in the atmosphere.

Sea ice acts like a lid on a pot of boiling water, explained Linette Boisvert, a sea ice scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who was part of the study. When the lid is removed, heat and steam escape into the air.

"We're getting more heat and moisture from the ocean going into the atmosphere because the sea ice acts like a cap or a barrier between the relatively warm ocean surface and the cold and dry atmosphere above," Boisvert said. "This warming and moistening of the atmosphere slows down the vertical growth of the sea ice, meaning that it will not be as thick, so it's more vulnerable to melt in the summer months."

Like other polynyas in the Arctic and Antarctic, the North Water Polynya forms when specific wind patterns blow in a persistent direction and tear holes in the ice. These wind patterns only exist in the winter months, and the holes open and close repeatedly, alternately exposing and insulating the ocean.



The new research shows low clouds over the polynya emitted more energy or heat than clouds in adjacent areas covered by sea ice. Those low clouds contained more liquid water, too—nearly four times higher than clouds over nearby sea ice. The increased cloud cover and heat under the clouds persisted for about a week after each occasion the polynya refroze during the time span of the study.

"Just because the sea ice reforms and the polynya closes up, that doesn't mean that conditions go back to normal right away," Boisvert said. "Even though the moisture sources are essentially gone, this effect of extra clouds and increased cloud radiative effect to the surface remains for a time after [the polynya freezes]."

The findings also suggest the response of the clouds to the polynya lengthened the time the hole remained open, said Patrick Taylor, a climate scientist at NASA Langley, who also was part of the study.

"They can create a thicker blanket and increase the amount of heat emitted down to the surface," Taylor said. "The emitted heat helps keep the surface of the North Water Polynya a little warmer and helps prolong the event itself."

Emily E. Monroe et al, Arctic Cloud Response to a Perturbation in Sea Ice Concentration: The North Water Polynya, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2021)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034409
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD034409

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2021/nasa-satellites-show-how-clouds-respond-to-arctic-sea-ice-change
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #33 on: September 24, 2021, 09:51:44 AM »
NASA Satellites Show How Clouds Respond to Arctic Sea Ice Change

I popped in here to mention that new paper, but I see you beat me to the punch!

Instead perhaps I'll announce my latest expedition into the heart of darkness following NASA/NSIDC's calling of the 2021 minimum extent:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/09/arctic-sea-ice-disinformation-and-cop26/

Quote
It seems that the meme du jour on social media consists of posting a recent graph of DMI Arctic sea ice extent accompanied by the following claim::

How about looking into the fact that the arctic sea ice extent has grown by 1 million km² compared to this time last year despite a "warming world". Wasn't it supposed to be ice free in the summers?

More on the science rather than the anti-science at:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info//2021/08/the-2021-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#Sep-23

Quote
Alek Petty and Linette Boisvert from NASA have published an overview of the 2021 melting season:

By the beginning of July, conditions were tracking very close to the record low set in 2012, but the rate of decline slowed considerably during the second half of the month. Cyclones entering the Arctic from Siberia generated counterclockwise winds and ice drifts. This counterclockwise ice circulation pattern generally reduces the amount of sea ice moving out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait, east of Greenland. This likely contributed to the record low summer sea ice conditions observed in the Greenland Sea.

This ice circulation pattern also increased ice export out of the Laptev Sea, off Siberia, helping create a new record low for early summer ice area in that region. The low pressure system also increased cloudiness over the Arctic. Clouds generally block incoming solar radiation, reducing sea ice melt, but they can also trap heat lost from the surface, so their impact on sea ice melt can be a mixed bag.

etc. etc.
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Brigantine

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2021, 12:20:26 PM »
2021 Sep 21 Sea temperatures compared to 2020 and 2019

Interesting cold blob off Murmansk. There's an Argo float in that general area.
Nordic/Greenland seas very warm, Baffin Bay cold, even though it melted out a while ago

Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2021, 02:17:05 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Kara sea ice under attack, and Fram export coming back with a vengeance...


We're entering the most boring part of the year now. We all know what's gonna happen in the coming weeks... The arctic ocean will refreeze... Things will start to get interesting again in the new year, when the ice gets thicker, and the wind starts moving the ice around. So I think I'll just be posting weekly hindcasts from now on. That way we can still follow what's happening during winter, without me having to make these things every other day.

Hope you all enjoyed my forecasts! Signing out for a while now...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

kassy

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #36 on: September 24, 2021, 02:39:41 PM »
And in the summer ice will melt.  ;)
Key question is how fast or slow the refreeze is.

Just keep an eye out for storms and enjoy the seasonal break.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #37 on: September 24, 2021, 03:30:57 PM »
Thanks for the animations throughout the season Freegrass, they've been very helpful.

Interestinעly area has been dropping slightly these last few days. I wonder if refreeze will follow in the dismal footsteps of 2018.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2021, 04:05:28 PM by oren »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #38 on: September 24, 2021, 03:45:34 PM »
Thank you. Of course I'll keep an eye out for extreme weather events, and then I'll post a forecast for them. But it'll be good to have a break...  :)
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

Paul

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #39 on: September 24, 2021, 05:48:16 PM »
Thanks for the animations throughout the season Freegrass, they've been very helpful.

Interestinעly area has been dropping slightly these last few days. I wonder if refreeze will follow in the dismal footsteps of 2018.

Very doubtful, weather could not be more opposite to 2018 where conditions were very warm for the time of year and winds widely compacted the ice.

I suspect we may see quite soon the arm of ice that forms in the ESS soon and the arm towards Wrangel Island is getting more noticetable.

Atlantic side is going to be a struggle for the foreseeable though.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2021, 07:43:02 AM »
September 20-24.

2020.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2021, 07:38:23 PM »
Some wild weather along the Atlantic front and the East Greenland coast to look forward to in the next 3 days and maybe for some time after.

Sea ice drift is already shoving ice into the Greenland Sea from the Central Arctic and could get even stronger.

Ice when it heads South is doomed to die. How much will expire over the next few days, and how much will survive to be melted next year?
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morganism

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2021, 09:10:31 PM »
Is that the Blob forming off the coast of BC again? If the stationary highs off the west coast of N.A. , and the one that sets up over Iceland are re-forming, doesn't that mean another winter of major winter storms over N.A. and Iberian pennisula?

The ridiculously resilent ridge, and the persistent Icelandic highs, both caused some major disruptions in the arctic circulation last time they hit at the same time.

I still think they are caused by methane clathrate mobilization, but never see a direct correlation w methane maps, so....

El Cid

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #43 on: September 27, 2021, 07:57:02 AM »
....
 If the stationary highs off the west coast of N.A. , and the one that sets up over Iceland are re-forming, doesn't that mean another winter of major winter storms over N.A. and Iberian pennisula?

The ridiculously resilent ridge, and the persistent Icelandic highs

...

Icelandic HIGH? All I see is the very classic Icelandic LOW on that map. We've been having the Scandinavian high for many weeks now

Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2021, 11:15:14 AM »
September 22-26.

2020.

binntho

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #45 on: September 27, 2021, 03:02:59 PM »
September 22-26.

2020.

The Atlantic front edging ever closer to 90N
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #46 on: September 29, 2021, 08:55:59 AM »
September 24-28.

2020.

kassy

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #47 on: September 29, 2021, 01:34:18 PM »
Yesterday 2021 touched 2016 on the extent graphs and now it is below it. Maybe it will go down below the 2010 average too.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #48 on: September 29, 2021, 02:18:52 PM »
Yesterday 2021 touched 2016 on the extent graphs and now it is below it. Maybe it will go down below the 2010 average too.
It was cold early, and then the temperature seems to have leveled off above normal. Maybe that's all that summer heat from more southern latitudes that's now preventing the Arctic from cooling down more?
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The Walrus

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #49 on: September 29, 2021, 03:28:35 PM »
Yesterday 2021 touched 2016 on the extent graphs and now it is below it. Maybe it will go down below the 2010 average too.

2016 had a fast start to the freeing season, but slowed dramatically once October rolled around.  This year has been paralleling the 2010 average for a couple weeks, and there is no sign of divergence yet.