The 2021/2022 freezing season

[Niall Dollard]

 But we can look at SSTs. I attach 2021 vs 2018 extent and SST. The Atlantic is warm, everywhere else is pretty cold. I previously thought that refreeze would be slow but this seems not to be the case

Hi El Cid

I was wondering about that SST image and especially the warm anomaly north of Beaufort and Chukchi, and then I notice the caption on the image says 10/11/11 minus 10/11/18.

So is that not 2011 v 2018 ?

[Jim Hunt]

An animation of Arctic sea ice age, now updated to include the 2021 minimum extent. Hence the change in colour scheme at the end:



As the NSIDC recently put it:

"The amount of multiyear ice as assessed from ice age reached a near-record low"

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2021/#Oct-05

[Aluminium]

October 9-13.

2020.

[Niall Dollard]

Sentinel 1 SAR image taken late on the 13th Oct over a segment of the ESS.

It shows the main pack to the north and a part of the considerable new ice development that formed over the ESS in the past couple of days.

Much of this new ice formation occurred quite a distant out from the Russian coastline and contrary to the more typical spreading out from the coastline variety that we see at this time of year. 

[Jim Hunt]

Heads up via Peter Sinclair.

The Lena Delta from on high:

[oren]

Amazing images, thanks.

[gerontocrat]

I always wonder at this time of year as the Central Arctic rapidly fills up with ice, how fast or slow sea ice area and extent gains are depend on sea ice drift, air temperatures and ocean temperatures.

Air temperatures would suggest a slowing down, while sea ice drift has established a new pattern that, after looking at wind and sea level pressure over the next few days, looks like sticking around for some time.

click images to enlarge.

[El Cid]

Hi El Cid

I was wondering about that SST image and especially the warm anomaly north of Beaufort and Chukchi, and then I notice the caption on the image says 10/11/11 minus 10/11/18.

So is that not 2011 v 2018 ?

Shooot. You are right, I somehow screwed it up. Here is the real pic: 2021 vs 2018 and  19 SST anomaly (I chose those two years because the Siberian seas were open like now).

This one shows 2021 having similar SST in the Siberian seas and warmer in the Atlantic. The Chukchi/Bering is obviously colder

[Tor Bejnar]

The Lena Delta from on high:

Reminds me of the last days of George DeLong (October 1881), explorer who led the ill-fated Jeannette expedition of 1879–1881, as communicated in the 2015 book In the Kingdom of Ice: The Grand and Terrible Polar Voyage of the USS Jeannette
Shivers 

[Aluminium]

October 11-15.

2020.

[Shared Humanity]

While the Beaufort had a very high minimum as compared to the prior 4 years, it seems to be resisting refreeze at the moment.

[Brigantine]

Or is it just being exported to the ESS?

[Niall Dollard]

Some is drifting across from the Beaufort/Chukchi but a lot of the ESS is now freezing up quite rapidly.

Year on year difference on extent to this date 2020 is approaching 1.5 million square kms. Likely to expand beyond this too as 2020 was still very sluggish for the next couple of weeks.

I wonder what was the greatest year on year date increase ? In Sept 2013 extent was over 1.6 million above 2012.

[gerontocrat]

The sea ice drift is quite strong and looks like continuing for a few days more, perhaps especially down the Atlantic front

click gif to start, runs 7 times

[jdallen]

"It is hard to say at this point what (if any) weather effects might be. These stratospheric events and their effects are much more unpredictable than they might seem. "

That is exactly what I wanted to say!
I don't think we can draw any conclusions regarding either Arctic Ice or NH weather.

 But we can look at SSTs. I attach 2021 vs 2018 extent and SST. The Atlantic is warm, everywhere else is pretty cold. I previously thought that refreeze would be slow but this seems not to be the case

Considering the areas currently refreezing in previous years would have already had ice on them, I fear I do not find this particularly reassuring.

<waves to everyone> back after a hiatus.  Now catching up.

[Aluminium]

October 13-17.

2020.

[Paul]

"It is hard to say at this point what (if any) weather effects might be. These stratospheric events and their effects are much more unpredictable than they might seem. "

That is exactly what I wanted to say!
I don't think we can draw any conclusions regarding either Arctic Ice or NH weather.

 But we can look at SSTs. I attach 2021 vs 2018 extent and SST. The Atlantic is warm, everywhere else is pretty cold. I previously thought that refreeze would be slow but this seems not to be the case

Considering the areas currently refreezing in previous years would have already had ice on them, I fear I do not find this particularly reassuring.

<waves to everyone> back after a hiatus.  Now catching up.

But only the Laptev inside the main basin is lagging behind, everywhere else has either more or similar ice extent we expect too see at this time of year. Now the 'doors' to any Atlantic and Pacific inflow has been closed with sea ice, everything in the Laptev should gradually freeze up now.

Maybe it's not fully necessary how quickly sea ice forms, its how much it thickens up during winter which is important.

On a side note, Baffin and especially Hudson bay is going to be very slow to freeze up this year, the latter definately going to challenge 2010 in terms of freezing over. If I remember rightly, Hudson Bay did not fully refreeze until the end of December during 2010 due to persistent high temperatures.

[Shared Humanity]

Link to regional ice charts to aid in discussion.

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

Based on the slopes, the ESS, Laptev and perhaps the Kara are the seas which are clearly freezing faster than the previous four years. The Beaufort and CAA are slower.

The freeze season to date has been unremarkable. As gerontocrat shows here, SIE is increasing at exactly the average of the last ten years.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3370.msg324181.html#msg324181

[RoxTheGeologist]

It's been a shockingly average year. Everything on-trend. It's like a filler episode in a crime drama, everyone keeps watching but is a little upset with the director for putting it in. The most interesting aspect was what happened to the Greenland sea and how it's going to affect the Z.

[Aluminium]

The freeze season to date has been unremarkable. As gerontocrat shows here, SIE is increasing at exactly the average of the last ten years.

The extent stays well above the trend. 2021 has 1.623 M km² more ice than 2020.

[Jim Hunt]

<waves to everyone>

Welcome back JD!

[Renerpho]

I've been curious how well Slater's model would predict the freezing season. The chart on their website ends on October 1st, and while it gives daily predictions until the end of the year, to my knowledge these are not archived anywhere.

So for the past couple of weeks I saved copies of the page here, and also here when the other page was unavailable.

It turns out Slater has so far overestimated the amount of ice this freezing season, but the deviation is getting smaller (to just 0.04 million sq km on October 16th). See chart below. I don't know how this compares to its performance in previous freezing seasons, since that data is "lost to history".

[gerontocrat]

Ever since sometime in July, sea ice extent and rea in the Arctic has been a tale of two halves, recored or near record lows in the peripheral regions, and high to very high extent area in the High Arctic.

One wonders how long this contrast can persist.

[The Walrus]

It's been a shockingly average year. Everything on-trend. It's like a filler episode in a crime drama, everyone keeps watching but is a little upset with the director for putting it in. The most interesting aspect was what happened to the Greenland sea and how it's going to affect the Z.

Above average.

<Is this chart showing extent? It should say so. O>

[kassy]

It probably is extent but it is also showing dispersion. Ice will spread out when it is not thickening.

[Brigantine]

Russia's perspective

Interesting that the Nares is all just young ice



UPDATE: and now Canada's perspective. That Nares is still full of mostly multi-year ice, though only 5/10 in the northern part.

For the first time since the ice birthday, First Year Ice has been spotted!
(Region 'K' in western Nansen Sound, as well as 1/10 or 2/10 amongst the grey-white ice in regions 'ii' and 'O' also within the sound)

[Aluminium]

October 15-19.

2020.

[Jim Hunt]

It seems as though even the American Geophysical Union is not immune from tweeting erroneous information about “The Last Ice Area” in the Arctic Ocean:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/the-last-ice-area-in-the-arctic/

[The Walrus]

Does anyone know why NSIDC has not been updated in the past two days and why the data was changed for the days prior?

[Aluminium]

October 17-21.

2020.

[Jim Hunt]

Does anyone know why NSIDC has not been updated in the past two days and why the data was changed for the days prior?

In brief, no!

OSI-SAF haven't reported any satellite problems. I'll go look at their graphs now.....

Which look to be OK:

[gerontocrat]

Does anyone know why NSIDC has not been updated in the past two days and why the data was changed for the days prior?

In brief, no!

OSI-SAF haven't reported any satellite problems. I'll go look at their graphs now.....

Which look to be OK:

Different satellite?

Satellite #F18 is so many years beyond its design life, so I am always concerned when NSIDC published data goes wobbly and then not updated for more than one or two days. It means that NSIDC is not satisfied with data quality.

It could be the satellite data, or problems with the ground station.

I have emailed NSIDC on this. Usually the response is quick. Not this time.

[gerontocrat]

From NSIDC - note "We don't have a timeline for resolution at this time"

Amy, Oct 22, 2021, 9:45 MDT:
Dear Matthew,

Thank you for contacting the NSIDC. We are currently experiencing a processing issue and are working to resolve it. We don't have a timeline for resolution at this time. I apologize for any inconvenience this delay might cause.

Kind regards,

Amy

nsidc@nsidc.org
https://nsidc.org

[Jim Hunt]

I received a similar answer via Twitter, but with additional detail:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1451578182897999985

It seems there is a NASA outage that is affecting all NASA DAACs and access to their data. We are unsure at this time when it will be back up and running.

However, MASIE may also be an option for those looking for NRT sea ice conditions; it's inputs are from NOAA, and aren't being impacted by this outage: https://nsidc.org/data/masie.

In addition, users can still reach the input data for SII, NSIDC-0081, from our datapool directly.  This also provides a browse image which is easy to open and view (the data themselves are in binary, and so may pose a greater challenge):

https://n5eil01u.ecs.nsidc.org/PM/NSIDC-0081.001/2021.10.21/

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC - real problems?

[Aluminium]

October 19-24.

2020.

[oren]

Very impressive freeze-up in the Siberian seas, with the Kara also making some good gains in the past few days. Meanwhile the Beaufort, Chukchi and the CAA are barely growing, in opposition to behavior during the melting season. The weird year continues.

[SimonF92]

I wonder how we should interpret the 'slow growth'. Growth is spoken in absolute terms. However, maybe what we are observing is that in the Chukchi and Beaufort the 'fast' areas were already frozen this year, relative to the previous 5/10?

So, are we really observing slow growth? Or is it just the ice didnt melt and therefore couldnt refreeze.

This is particularly meaningful with respect to Chukchi, we can expect 'slow' growth there for the whole refreeze.

[Aluminium]

So, are we really observing slow growth?

Not yet.

[SimonF92]

So, are we really observing slow growth?

Not yet.

Could use some context there Aluminum, is blue describing the mean of last(n) years or is it a model? If so is it your model? I take it Yaxis is extent?

I ran my little masie script for anyone who is interested


Edit, thank you Aluminium for the below explanation

[Aluminium]

Blue line is expected JAXA extent based on long-term trend. Despite of high minimum, there is still no slowdown.

- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,914 k, which is 71 k, 2.5% more than the 10 year average of 2,842 k.

[Jim Hunt]

October 19-24.

The freeze up of the Laptev Sea was faster than forecast by CMEMS:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2021/#Oct-24

In the continuing absence of NSIDC data, here's high resolution AMSR2 area and extent:

[Bardian]

The announced Polar Vortex distruption arriving, warmer Arctic the coming weeks

British Isles

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/uk-snow-forecast-polar-vortex-sees-subzero-arctic-plunge-hit-britain-in-days-new-maps/ar-AAPVpKn?ocid=ob-tw-engb-665

[Jim Hunt]

The first merged CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness data for Autumn 2021 has arrived from the AWI:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2021/#Oct-26

Volume on October 23rd was 6363.7 km³, near the middle of the pack of recent years.

[Niall Dollard]

Jaxa extent is now at 11th place. Following the ESS, the Laptev freezing has continued at a steady pace and now the final ice hole will be filled in in the next couple of days.

This "hole" as shown on the Bremen chart at about 80N 120E is quite persistent. It's reluctant to freeze and is often the first area in the Laptev to melt. This has been observed commented on before frequently on this forum in many threads.

Not sure if a satisfactory explanation has ever been offerred as to why it is usually first & last (melt/freeze) in this area. I imagine there must be an ocean current dynamics/salinity/upwellling at play but I wonder has it ever been scientifically investigated?

[SimonF92]

Jaxa extent is now at 11th place. Following the ESS, the Laptev freezing has continued at a steady pace and now the final ice hole will be filled in in the next couple of days.

This "hole" as shown on the Bremen chart at about 80N 120E is quite persistent. It's reluctant to freeze and is often the first area in the Laptev to melt. This has been observed commented on before frequently on this forum in many threads.

Not sure if a satisfactory explanation has ever been offerred as to why it is usually first & last (melt/freeze) in this area. I imagine there must be an ocean current dynamics/salinity/upwellling at play but I wonder has it ever been scientifically investigated?

I wonder how often and how many total of the salinity/temp buoys float through that area, I will look into this

[Brigantine]

Russia's weekly ice chart:
-1st year ice taking over the Beaufort hole
- Laptev all frozen up (thin/nilas) except that famous polynya just off the shelf break



If I may phrase the polynya question another way... with all the warm WSC water flowing underneath, why is the *gap* of shelf break in between Svaalbard and the Laptev Polynya still so frequently ice covered?

I observe that said ice usually doesn't form in-place, and typically ice that crosses that region is thinner on the way out than the way in. So the Laptev Polynya is somehow not the beneficiary of so much imported ice?

Perhaps... the Laptev Polynya needs its own thread. It would be a good reference in future.

[Feeltheburn]

This is the most intense refreeze after dropping into last place just a few months ago. Now it’s 2 million km2 higher than last year at this time.

[Aluminium]

October 22-26.

2020.

[Jim Hunt]

The NSIDC's Sea Ice Index has burst back into life:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2021/#Oct-27