The 2021/2022 freezing season

[nadir]

The end is nigh! For this thread that is. 

Lot of warmth coming in from the Antlantic side from sunday to thursday.

Indeed. And while MASIE is not a good tool for year-to-year comparisons, it is seeing a 400k extent loss since maximum (MASIE should be unaffected by the recent blip). With the forecast above, and the Pacific seas already losing ice, the overall extent will not recover.

[The Blob warned us]

The 12z ECMWF also shows an exceptional torching in the Arctic, and in the Antarctic a day later. This run came in much milder, a +50C anomaly in the SH was seen in previous runs.

When Hunga Tonga erupted on 15 Jan, a massive amount of water vapor entered the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, which should lead to extra stratospheric cooling and warming of the troposphere, already the climate trend.

Expect unusual

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1492298220575330309

[oren]

Folks, considering the data charts and the forecast I am officially announcing the end of the freezing season (hoping mother nature complies).
Feel free to start the melting season thread.

[Jim Hunt]

Lot of warmth coming in from the Antlantic side from sunday to thursday.

I'd noticed that too, and I (confidently?) called the maximum yesterday. GFS forecast temperatures on Monday AM:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2022/#Mar-12

[oren]

Please post here freezing season summaries and charts, if anyone is so inclined.

[gerontocrat]

Here is

1. the table and graph of the JAXA measure of Arctic sea ice extent maxima.

The date of maximum is an extremely early 23 Feb, and is distorted by a 218k increase on that day followed by a 239k decrease on the following day. So far no signs of JAXA adjusting this odd data (possibly caused by the sensors being fooled by odd surface conditions off the southern tip of Greenland?)

2. And ditto for NSIDC sea ice area (5 day trailing average) data, that gives the maxima as 25 Feb.

[oren]

If the Feb 23 result is discarded (as it should be IMHO), does the max occur on Feb 22?

[kassy]

Someone should fix in in reanalysis?

If you throw away some data you can draw a line but if it straight it must be wrong so then you would have to figure out the curve.

[oren]

Two very good animations posted by uniquorn in other threads, a good overview of the final part of the freezing season in north Kara and a larger one in the Lincoln/Fram/CAB region.

[Aluminium]

For some reason my interest about the Arctic decreased. Hopefully it will not last long.

February 5-19.

February 17 - March 3.

March 1-11.

September 11 - March 11 (fast).

[Glen Koehler]

2021-2022 Arctic (and Antarctic) freezing season summary at Carbon Brief
"Arctic sea ice winter peak in 2022 is 10th lowest on record"
https://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-sea-ice-winter-peak-in-2022-is-10th-lowest-on-record

"The news comes as soaring heatwaves have hit both the Arctic and Antarctic at the same time. The Guardian reports that temperatures in Antarctica reached 40C above normal in places, while some weather stations in the Arctic hit temperatures 30C above normal."

[Aluminium]

I have one more thing to post here:

[binntho]

I like your "Aluminium's prediction", but perhaps a reminder of how it is calculated would be useful - perhaps a short text in one of the corners?