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Author Topic: The 2021/2022 freezing season  (Read 117994 times)

nadir

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #450 on: March 11, 2022, 08:43:28 PM »
The end is nigh! For this thread that is.  ;)

Lot of warmth coming in from the Antlantic side from sunday to thursday.

Indeed. And while MASIE is not a good tool for year-to-year comparisons, it is seeing a 400k extent loss since maximum (MASIE should be unaffected by the recent blip). With the forecast above, and the Pacific seas already losing ice, the overall extent will not recover.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2022, 08:58:12 PM by nadir »

The Blob warned us

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #451 on: March 12, 2022, 01:55:37 AM »
The 12z ECMWF also shows an exceptional torching in the Arctic, and in the Antarctic a day later. This run came in much milder, a +50C anomaly in the SH was seen in previous runs.

When Hunga Tonga erupted on 15 Jan, a massive amount of water vapor entered the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, which should lead to extra stratospheric cooling and warming of the troposphere, already the climate trend.

Expect unusual

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1492298220575330309

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #452 on: March 12, 2022, 08:47:06 AM »
Folks, considering the data charts and the forecast I am officially announcing the end of the freezing season (hoping mother nature complies).
Feel free to start the melting season thread.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #453 on: March 12, 2022, 12:07:49 PM »
Lot of warmth coming in from the Antlantic side from sunday to thursday.

I'd noticed that too, and I (confidently?) called the maximum yesterday. GFS forecast temperatures on Monday AM:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2022/#Mar-12

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #454 on: March 12, 2022, 02:00:57 PM »
Please post here freezing season summaries and charts, if anyone is so inclined.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #455 on: March 12, 2022, 05:55:39 PM »
Here is

1. the table and graph of the JAXA measure of Arctic sea ice extent maxima.

The date of maximum is an extremely early 23 Feb, and is distorted by a 218k increase on that day followed by a 239k decrease on the following day. So far no signs of JAXA adjusting this odd data (possibly caused by the sensors being fooled by odd surface conditions off the southern tip of Greenland?)

2. And ditto for NSIDC sea ice area (5 day trailing average) data, that gives the maxima as 25 Feb.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2022, 12:53:51 PM by gerontocrat »
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oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #456 on: March 12, 2022, 07:27:07 PM »
If the Feb 23 result is discarded (as it should be IMHO), does the max occur on Feb 22?

kassy

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #457 on: March 12, 2022, 11:33:56 PM »
Someone should fix in in reanalysis?

If you throw away some data you can draw a line but if it straight it must be wrong so then you would have to figure out the curve.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #458 on: March 12, 2022, 11:44:33 PM »
Two very good animations posted by uniquorn in other threads, a good overview of the final part of the freezing season in north Kara and a larger one in the Lincoln/Fram/CAB region.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #459 on: March 13, 2022, 02:32:43 PM »
For some reason my interest about the Arctic decreased. Hopefully it will not last long.

February 5-19.

February 17 - March 3.

March 1-11.

September 11 - March 11 (fast).

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #460 on: March 22, 2022, 08:07:16 PM »
2021-2022 Arctic (and Antarctic) freezing season summary at Carbon Brief
"Arctic sea ice winter peak in 2022 is 10th lowest on record"
https://www.carbonbrief.org/arctic-sea-ice-winter-peak-in-2022-is-10th-lowest-on-record

"The news comes as soaring heatwaves have hit both the Arctic and Antarctic at the same time. The Guardian reports that temperatures in Antarctica reached 40C above normal in places, while some weather stations in the Arctic hit temperatures 30C above normal."
“What is at stake.... Everything, I would say." ~ Julienne Stroeve

Aluminium

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #461 on: April 04, 2022, 11:58:06 AM »
I have one more thing to post here:

binntho

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Re: The 2021/2022 freezing season
« Reply #462 on: April 05, 2022, 06:19:56 AM »
I like your "Aluminium's prediction", but perhaps a reminder of how it is calculated would be useful - perhaps a short text in one of the corners?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6